A Collection of Papers from the 2017 Conference Series and Nuclear Scholars Initiative
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COVER PHOTO U.S. NAVY PHOTO/LT. CMDR. BRIAN BADURA/RELEASED FEBRUARY 2018 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 202 887 0200 | www.csis.org PROJECT ON NUCLEAR ISSUES PROJECT Project on Nuclear Issues A Collection of Papers from the 2017 Conference Lanham • Boulder • New York • London 4501 Forbes Boulevard Series and Nuclear Scholars Initiative Lanham, MD 20706 301 459 3366 | www.rowman.com MARK CANCIAN EDITOR Mark Cancian AUTHORS Shannon Abbott Chelsea Green Mitchell Armbruster Stephen Herzog Logan Brandt Isaac Jenkins Kit Conklin Nathan Powell Daniel Davies Wes Rumbaugh David N. Etim Daniel Salisbury April R. Gillens Alicia Sanders-Zakre ISBN 978-1-4422-8055-7 Jeffrey J. Graham Ë|xHSLEOCy280557z v*:+:!:+:! Henrietta Toivanen Blank FEBRUARY 2018 Proj ect on Nuclear Issues A Collection of Papers from the 2017 Conference Series and Nuclear Scholars Initiative EDITOR Mark Cancian AUTHORS Shannon Abbott Chelsea Green Mitchell Armbruster Stephen Herzog Logan Brandt Isaac Jenkins Kit Conklin Nathan Powell Daniel Davies Wes Rumbaugh David N. Etim Daniel Salisbury April R. Gillens Alicia Sanders- Zakre Jeffrey J. Graham Henrietta Toivanen Lanham • Boulder • New York • London 594-73165_ch00_3P.indd 1 2/15/18 8:42 AM About CSIS For over 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has worked to develop solutions to the world’s greatest policy challenges. T oday, CSIS scholars are providing strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. CSIS is a nonprofit organ ization headquartered in Washington, DC. The Center’s 220 full- time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analy sis and develop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS was dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. Since 1962, CSIS has become one of the world’s preeminent international institutions focused on defense and security; regional stability; and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global health and economic integration. Thomas J. Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in November 2015. Former U.S. deputy secretary of defense John J. Hamre has served as the Center’s president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). Acknowl edgments This report is made pos si ble by the generous support of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency and the National Nuclear Security Administration. © 2018 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. ISBN: 978-1-4422-8055-7 (pb); 978-1-4422-8056-4 (eBook) Center for Strategic & International Studies Rowman & Littlefield 1616 Rhode Island Ave nue, NW 4501 Forbes Boulevard Washington, DC 20036 Lanham, MD 20706 202-887-0200 | www .csis .org 301- 459 - 3366 | www. rowman . com 594-73165_ch00_3P.indd 2 2/15/18 8:42 AM Contents v Introduction 1 Improving Insider Threat Training, Awareness, and Mitigation Programs at Nuclear Facilities Shannon Abbott 10 Examining Nuclear Assumptions: Five Schools of Thought Mitchell Armbruster 22 Risk of Electromagnetic Pulse Attacks on the United States: Vulnerabilities and Motives Logan Brandt 30 Deterrence in the Age of Asteroid Mining: Nuclear Strategy and the Commercialization of Space Kit Conklin 40 Brexit: The Unappreciated Threats to Nuclear Security Daniel Davies 53 Challenges That Arise from the Implementation of Distinctive Technologies within Nuclear Safety and Security David N. Etim 64 A Nuclear South Korea April R. Gillens 75 Technological Approaches to the Prob lem of Counterproliferation in a Nuclear Energy Rich World Jeffrey J. Graham 91 The Evolution of CNEN Regulation on Radiological Materials with Medical Applications before and a fter the Goiânia Radiological Accident of 1987 Chelsea Green 105 A Policy Roadmap for Improved Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Monitoring Stephen Herzog 121 Producing Second Strike Isaac Jenkins 136 The Arihant- Class SSBN and the Advent of Sea- Based Nuclear Forces in India, China, and Pakistan Nathan Powell III 594-73165_ch00_3P.indd 3 2/15/18 8:42 AM 147 Missile Defenses’ Role in Twenty- First-Century Deterrence Wes Rumbaugh 156 Selling the Bomb: Making the Case for British Nuclear Deterrence in the Twenty- First Century Daniel Salisbury 170 The Birth of a Ban: A Comparative Analy sis of WMD Prohibition Treaties Alicia Sanders- Zakre 184 The Frontiers of Technology in Warhead Verification Henrietta Toivanen IV Contents 594-73165_ch00_3P.indd 4 2/15/18 8:42 AM Introduction The role that nuclear weapons play in international security has changed since the end of the Cold War, but the need to maintain and replenish the h uman infrastructure for supporting nuclear capabilities and dealing with the multitude of nuclear challenges remains essential. Recognizing this challenge, CSIS launched the Proj ect on Nuclear Issues (PONI) in 2003 to develop the next generation of policy, technical, and operational nuclear professionals through outreach, mentor- ship, research, and debate. PONI runs two signature programs— the Nuclear Scholars Initiative and the Annual Conference Series—to engage emerging nuclear experts in thoughtful and informed debate and research over how to best address the nuclear community’s most pressing prob lems. The papers included in this volume comprise research from participants in the 2017 Nuclear Scholars Initiative and the PONI Conference Series. PONI sponsors this research to provide a forum for facilitating new and innovative thinking and to provide a platform for emerging thought leaders across the nuclear enterprise. Spanning a wide range of technical and policy issues, these selected papers further discussion in their respective areas. PONI owes many thanks to the authors for their dedication and outstanding work. Particular appreciation goes to the PONI team for editing and reviewing all the papers, the se nior experts who provided mentorship, those who came to speak with the Nuclear Scholars during their work- shops, the members of the Mid- Career Cadre who guided research direction, and those who moderated conference panels. PONI could not function without the generosity of these knowl- edgeable individuals. Lastly, PONI would like to express gratitude to our partners for their continued support, especially the Defense Threat Reduction Agency and the National Nuclear Security Administration. V 594-73165_ch00_3P.indd 5 2/15/18 8:42 AM 594-73165_ch00_3P.indd 6 2/15/18 8:42 AM Improving Insider Threat Training, Awareness, and Mitigation Programs at Nuclear Facilities Shannon Abbott1 In recent years, insider threat programs have become an impor tant aspect of nuclear security and nuclear security training courses. However, many nuclear security insider threat programs fail to consider both the threat and potential of information technology (IT) systems for conducting and preventing insider attacks. This failure is critical because of the importance of information technol- ogy and networks in today’s world. IT systems offer an opportunity to perpetrate dangerous insider attacks, but they also pres ent an opportunity to monitor and prevent them. This paper suggests a number of best practices, such as maintaining secure backup pro cesses, managing access paths, and monitoring both physical and network exfiltration of impor tant data. It also proposes the development of a new tabletop exercise for training nuclear security prac ti tion ers on how best to implement the aforementioned best practices. The development of IT insider threat best practices and a practical tabletop exercise w ill improve nuclear security training by integrating a critical ele ment of insider threat prevention into the broader nuclear security system. INTRODUCTION In recent years, insider threat mitigation programs have become increasingly impor tant at nuclear facilities. Although the nuclear security community has worked to develop insider threat mitigation programs, it very seldom focuses on mitigating threats resulting from information technology (IT) 1. Shannon Abbott is a nuclear security intern at Sandia National Laboratories and a Master of International Affairs candidate at the Bush School of Government and Public Ser vice at Texas A&M University. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE- NA-0003525. 1 594-73165_ch01_3P.indd 1 2/15/18 8:44 AM systems. One Chatham House report on civil nuclear facilities noted that “cyber security training at nuclear facilities is often insufficient. In par tic u lar, t here is a lack of integrated cyber security drills between nuclear plant personnel and cyber security personnel.”2 This is despite the fact that cybersecurity at nuclear facilities is becoming increasingly impor tant in a highly connected world. Just as insiders can have critical knowledge that allows them to physically attack nuclear facilities, they also can manipulate the IT systems at a nuclear fa cil i ty, which can have disastrous impacts on the plant itself. While the IT insider threat has