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Basic Data on Fertility in the Provinces of China, 1940-82

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Basic Data on Fertility in the Provinces of China, 1940-82 Basic data PAPERS OF THE on fertility EAST-WEST in the provinces POPULATION INSTITUTE of China, NUMBER 1940-82 104 JANUARY 1987 EAST-WEST CENTER HONOLULU Ansley J. Coale HAWAII and Chen Sheng Li PAPERS OF THE EAST-WEST POPULATION INSTITUTE, published about eight times a year, facilitate early dissernination of research findings and policy- relevant reports on the populations of Asia, the Pacific, and the United States. Cost per copy, $3. NOTE TO CONTRIBUTORS: The Population Institute considers unsolicited as well as commissioned manuscripts for the Paper Series. Appropriate topics are demographic trends and estimation, fertility and family structure, economic development and human resources, urbanization and migration, and popula• tion policies and programs. All manuscripts are reviewed. 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Reprint Series brings selected articles originating from Institute research but published elsewhere to the attention of population specialists who might not otherwise see them. Single copies available upon request. Asian and Pacific Population Forum brings articles of potential value in policy formulation, program administration, and research to the notice of policymak• ers, professionals, and scholars concerned with population matters in the Asia- Pacific region. Published quarterly in November, February, May, and August. Annual subscription rate, $12 (free to individuals and organizations involved in population-related work). Serial publications except Working Papers are available without charge to libraries serving population specialists and to professionals and scholars in the field of population. Requests describing the nature of the research or program and the intended use of the publications should be addressed to: Publication Sales and Distribution, East-West Center. East-West Population Institute East-West Center Director Lee-Jay Cho 1777 East-West Road Senior Editor Sandra E. Ward Honolulu, Hawaii 96848 Editor David Ellis Basic data on fertility in the provinces of China, 1940-82 Ansley J. Coale and Chen Sheng Li Number 104 • January 1987 PAPERS OF THE EAST-WEST POPULATION INSTITUTE ANSLEY J. COALE is William Church Osborne Professor Emeritus of Public Affairs and Associate Director (retired) of the Office of Population Research at Princeton University. CHEN SHENG LI is Head of Family Planning Statis• tics, Jilin Provincial Family Planning Commission, People's Republic of China. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Coale, Ansley J. Basic data on fertility in the provinces of China, 1940-82. (Papers of the East-West Population Institute, ISSN 0732-0531 ; no. 104) "January 1987." 1. Fertility, Human—China—Provinces—History. I. Chen Sheng Li, 1945- . II. Title. III. Series. HB1064.A3C63 1987 304.6'32'0951 86-32765 ISBN 0-86638-088-4 ERRATA Basic Data on Fertility in the Provinces of China, 1940-82 by Ansley J. Coale and Chen Sheng U Papers of the East-West Population Institute, No. 104, January 1987 1. Page 1, line 3 of the Abstract: The phrase "within each province for total urban, and rural populations" should be "within each province for total, urban, and rural populations." 2. Page 6, Table 1: This table contains several errors. A corrected table follows. 6 Basic Data on Fertility in the Provinces of China, 1940-82 Table 1. Number of respondents and number of sample units in each province: One per Thousand Sample Fertility Survey, 1982 Number of respondents Number of Province Total Urban Rural sample units 1 Beijing 3,103 1,941 1,162 7 2 Tianjin 3,044 1,719 1,325 6 3 Hebei 17,030 1,575 15,455 53 4 Shanxi 7,681 955 6,726 30 5 Inner Mongolia 6,257 1,843 4,414 16 6 Liaoning 12,513 4,836 7,677 22 7 Jilin 6,744 1,892 4,852 14 8 Heilongjiang 9,599 3,133 6,466 23 9 Shanghai 4,416 2,888 1,528 6 10 Jiangsu 21,019 3,447 17,572 41 11 Zhejiang 11,705 1,440 10,265 44 12 Anhui 14,357 1,662 12,695 32 13 Fujian 7,414 826 6,588 17 14 Jiangxi 9,509 1,094 8,415 24 15 Shandong 23,409 1,559 21,850 88 16 Henan 21,717 1,992 • 19,725 50 17 Hubei 15,638 2,419 13,219 38 18 Hunan 16,727 1,939 14,788 50 19 Guangdong' 17,692 3,020 14,672 32 20 Guangxi 10,512 973 9,539 17 21 Sichuan 30,114 4,385 25,729 85 22 Guizhou 7,841 1,108 6,733 27 23 Yunnan 10,088 1,254 8,834 16 24 Shaanxi 8,956 1,545 7,411 35 25 Gansu 5,732 1,057 4,675 19 26 Qinghai 1,489 283 1,206 6 27 Ningxia 1,290 387 903 4 28 Xinjiang 4,418 1,241 3,177 13 Total 310,014 52,413 257,601 815 n'i CONTENTS Acknowledgments xvii Abstract 1 Part I. Changes in fertility, 1940-82 1 Age-specific and duration-specific fertility rates for twenty-eight provinces 2 Total fertility rates by age and duration since first marriage 2 Truncation of fertility records for early years (before 1964) 4 Variability of rates attributable to the limited sample sizes in individual provinces 5 Features of China's fertility rates 7 Fertility differences and fertility trends in the provinces 12 How age-specific and duration-specific rates were calculated 27 Truncation of estimates because of upper age limit of respondents 18 Estimation of TDFR and TAFR, 1945-63 18 Estimation of TAFR from duration-specific rates, and total first- marriage rates of preceding years 20 Part II. Basic Tables: Fertility rates by age of woman, and fertility rates of ever-married women by duration since first marrriage, 1940-82, for Mainland China and twenty-eight provinces: total, urban, and rural 23 Appendix A. Comments on the total age-specific fertility rate, total age-specific married fertility rate, and total duration-specific fertility rate 356 Hypothetical example of duration-specific and age-specific fertility when age at marriage changes 358 Conversion of TDFR into TAFR in China 360 TAFR and TDFR: Summary 362 Appendix B. Proofs of two propositions about the relation of TDFR and TAFR (by German Rodriguez and Ansley J. Coale) 363 V TABLES Text Tables 1. Number of respondents and number of sample units in each province: One per Thousand Sample Fertility Survey, 1982 6 2. Median marital fertility rates at duration 5-9 years in selected periods, for the provinces of Mainland China 25 3. Ratios of fertility rates at different durations employed in the cal• culation of TDFR for 1940-63 20 4. Calculation of TDFR*, and estimated TAFR, for the rural popula• tion of China: 1980 22 5. Calculation of TDFR* and estimated TAFR, for the rural popula• tion of China: 1950 22 A.l. Total duration-specific fertility, total age-specific fertility, and ad• justed total duration-specific fertility, for rural Liaoning Province, 1960-82, and for China and selected provinces, 1979 361 Basic Tables 1. A. Total China: age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 24 B. Urban China: age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 26 C Rural China: age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 28 2. A. Total Beijing Province (1): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 30 B. Urban Beijing Province (1): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 32 C. Rural Beijing Province (1): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 34 3. A. Total Tianjin Province (2): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 36 B. Urban Tianjin Province (2): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 38 C. Rural Tianjin Province (2): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 40 4. A. Total Hebei Province (3): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 42 B. Urban Hebei Province (3): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 44 C. Rural Hebei Province (3): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 46 5. A. Total Shanxi Province (4): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 48 5. B. Urban Shanxi Province (4): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 50 C. Rural Shanxi Province (4): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 52 6. A. Total Inner Mongolia Province (5): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 54 B. Urban Inner Mongolia Province (5): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 56 C. Rural Inner Mongolia Province (5): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 58 7. A. Total Liaoning Province (6): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 60 B. Urban Liaoning Province (6): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 62 C. Rural Liaoning Province (6): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 64 8. A. Total Jilin Province (7): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 66 B. Urban Jilin Province (7): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 68 C. Rural Jilin Province (7): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 70 9. A. Total Heilongjiang Province (8): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 72 B. Urban Heilongjiang Province (8): age-specific fertility rates, 1940-82 74 C.
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