National Weather Service 2016 Hurricane Season Lake Charles, Louisiana By Roger Erickson, Warning Coordination Meteorologist
Hurricane Joaquin October 2015 weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2015 Tropical Storm Bill
Tropical Storm Bill formed near the coast of Texas, and produced heavy rain in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. Locally, we had major flooding in Jasper and Newton counties where they saw 10 to 16 inches of rain.
This rain event happened while the center of circulation was near the Texas/Oklahoma border on June 17th, the day after landfall.
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2015 Tropical Storm Claudette
Tropical Storm Claudette was a short-lived storm off the east coast of the US in July 2015. Its genesis was poorly forecast. 24 hours before it formed, NHC gave this system a low chance (<40%) of developing into a tropical cyclone. Once it did develop, short range forecasts had larger than normal errors, which is not uncommon for weak systems.
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2015 Tropical Storm Erika
Tropical Storm Erika was originally expected to become a hurricane and turn towards Florida in August 2015. Instead, it weakened and dissipated as it moved west in the Caribbean.
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2015 Hurricane Joaquin
Hurricane Joaquin was thought to be a threat to the east coast of the US, but it actually veered to the east and stayed out at sea. Forecast track errors and intensity errors were larger than normal.
Track 24 hr 48 hr 72 hr 96 hr 120 hr Errors NHC 50.6 mi 121.0 mi 231.7mi 360.9 mi 450.4 mi actual NHC 45.0 mi 77.1 mi 113.1 mi 157.8 mi 210.0 mi 2010-14
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2015 Hurricane Patricia
Hurricane Patricia formed off the west coast of Mexico in October 2015, and intensified from a tropical storm to category 5 in less than 24 hours. Model guidance did show it strengthening, but nowhere close to the strength it actually achieved. It goes down in the record books as the second most intense tropical cyclone in the world (872 mb).
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana NHC Track Verification
Track forecasts have been steadily improving for the past 25 years.
2015 Forecast Hour 2015 Forecast Error 24 41.1 nm 48 77.4 nm 72 125.2 nm 96 188.0 nm 120 241.4 nm
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana NHC Intensity Verification
There was not been significant improvement in intensity forecasts until the 2010-2013 seasons. Fewer events the past two years contribute to the volatility of the graph. 2015 Forecast Hour 2015 Forecast Error 24 7.4 kts 48 11.4 kts 72 15.6 kts 96 19.6 kts 120 20.4 kts weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2016 Atlantic Basin Storm Names
Alex Hermine Otto Bonnie Ian Paula Colin Julia Richard Danielle Karl Sharry Earl Lisa Tobias Fiona Matthew Virginie Gaston Nicole Walter
Hurricane Alex January 14, 2016
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana Weather Hazards of Tropical Cyclones
1. Storm Surge
2. Heavy Rain/Inland Flooding
3. Damaging Winds
4. Tornadoes
Cameron, LA September 2005
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana Weather Hazards of Tropical Cyclones
• Storm Surge: water pushed towards the shore by the force of the winds swirling around the storm. Coastal flooding can be increased if the storm surge arrives during high tide.
• Locally storm surge can go very far inland – north of Interstate 10 in places.
Cameron, LA September 2005
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana Storm Surge Threat
Category 1 Storm Surge Threat Blue=up to 3 ft AGL Yellow=greater than 3 ft AGL Orange=greater than 6 ft AGL Red=greater than 9 ft AGL weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana Storm Surge Threat
Category 2 Storm Surge Threat Blue=up to 3 ft AGL Yellow=greater than 3 ft AGL Orange=greater than 6 ft AGL Red=greater than 9 ft AGL weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana Storm Surge Threat
Category 3 Storm Surge Threat Blue=up to 3 ft AGL Yellow=greater than 3 ft AGL Orange=greater than 6 ft AGL Red=greater than 9 ft AGL weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana Storm Surge Threat
Category 4 Storm Surge Threat Blue=up to 3 ft AGL Yellow=greater than 3 ft AGL Orange=greater than 6 ft AGL Red=greater than 9 ft AGL weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana Storm Surge Threat
Category 5 Storm Surge Threat Blue=up to 3 ft AGL Yellow=greater than 3 ft AGL Orange=greater than 6 ft AGL Red=greater than 9 ft AGL weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana Weather Hazards of Tropical Cyclones
• Inland Flooding: The slower the tropical cyclone is moving, the greater the likelihood of heavy rains causing inland flooding, sometimes hundreds of miles inland.
• Besides flash floods, hurricanes can cause urban flooding and river floods as well.
Buna, TX June 2015
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana Weather Hazards of Tropical Cyclones
• Wind: Hurricanes are know for their sustained winds, and are rated based on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
• Wind gusts can be as much as 25 to 40% higher than the sustained winds, but typically last for just a few seconds.
Lake Charles, LA September 2005
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana Weather Hazards of Tropical Cyclones
• Tornadoes: An added dimension to the wind threat of tropical cyclones, tornadoes can cause localized areas of extreme damage.
• They are most common in the right front quadrant of the system, in relation to its storm motion.
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana Important NHC Products
The Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook has the probabilities tweaked for colors of the risk areas for a tropical cyclone to develop in the next 5 days.
It is issued at 1 am, 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm during hurricane season and can be found on our website.
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana Important NHC Products
• 4 am – Full advisory package • 5 am – tropical cyclone update • 6 am - tropical cyclone update • 7 am – Intermediate advisory • 8 am - tropical cyclone update • 9 am - tropical cyclone update • 10 am – Full advisory package • 11 am - tropical cyclone update • Noon - tropical cyclone update NHC will issue their forecasts at 4 am, 10 am, • 1 pm – Intermediate advisory 4 pm, and 10 pm, with intermediate forecasts • 2 pm - tropical cyclone update issued when there is a landfall threat. • 3 pm - tropical cyclone update
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana Experimental NHC Products
A prototype storm surge watch/warning was introduced in 2015.
It is produced as a collaboration of NHC and local NWS meteorologists.
Intended to enhance public response to local officials evacuation decisions.
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana Experimental NHC Products
The potential storm surge flooding map will show the height above ground level that water could reach.
It will be issued 60-90 minutes after the NHC advisories.
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana What to Expect from NWS Lake Charles
Southwest Louisiana Time, Date, Forecast Period Location Wind Tornado Storm Surge Heavy Rain Allen Beauregard Calcasieu Cameron Jeff Davis Forecast Confidence
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2016 Atlantic Basin Forecast
We typically see a hurricane within 50 miles of us every 9 to 14 years. The last one to hit Texas was Hurricane Ike in 2008. The last one in Louisiana was Hurricane Isaac in 2012.
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2016 Atlantic Basin Forecast
In any given hurricane season, we will track over 100 tropical waves moving across the Atlantic Ocean.
tropical wave tropical wave tropical wave weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2016 Atlantic Basin Forecast
There is a cycle of active and inactive hurricane seasons in the Atlantic basin, including the Gulf of Mexico. We have been in a more active period since 1995. 10
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2016 Atlantic Basin Forecast
Water temperatures are warmer in 2016 than 2015 in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which could be a signal of a more active season. weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2016 Atlantic Basin Forecast
High wind shear inhibits development of tropical cyclones. It can change from one day to the next. This time of year, wind shear is typically strong over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2016 Atlantic Basin Forecast
Dry dusty air pushing off the African continent can be an inhibitor to tropical cyclone development. These plumes can take weeks to travel across the Atlantic.
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2016 Atlantic Basin Forecast
Steering current direct the path of tropical cyclones. These currents change direction every day and can be difficult to forecast more than a few days in advance.
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles National Weather Service 2016 Hurricane Season Lake Charles, Louisiana By Roger Erickson, Warning Coordination Meteorologist
Keep up with NWS Lake Charles through the links listed below…
Or call me at 337.477.5285 x223.
weather.gov/lch NWSLakeCharles @NWSLakeCharles NWSLakeCharles