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The East Asia Summit: on a Road to Somewhere? 9 Ralf Emmers

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The East Asia Summit: on a Road to Somewhere? 9 Ralf Emmers 02/2017 PANORAMA INSIGHTS INTO ASIAN AND EUROPEAN AFFAIRS SECURITY ARCHITECTURES UNDER THREAT THE STATUS OF MULTILATERAL FORA K o n r a d A d e n a u e r S t i f t u n g Panorama InsIghts Into asIan and euroPean affaIrs security architectures under threat Panorama: Insights into Asian and European Affairs is a series of occasional papers published by the Konrad- Adenauer-Stiftung’s “Regional Programme Political Dialogue Asia/Singapore”. © 2017 Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, Singapore Editors: Christian Echle, Megha Sarmah, Patrick Rueppel Publisher: Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Ltd 36 Bukit Pasoh Road Singapore 089848 Registration Number: 201228783N Tel: (65) 6603-6160 Tel: (65) 6227-8343 Email: [email protected] Website: www.kas.de/singapore All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying or recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission from the publisher. Manuscript offers, review copies, exchange journals, and requests for subscription are to be sent to the editors. The responsibility for facts and opinions in this publication rests exclusively with the authors and their interpretations do not necessarily reflect the views or the policy of Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung. Cover image by Green House Design + Communications Pte Ltd Design, Layout and Typeset: Select Books Pte Ltd 65A, Jalan Tenteram #02-06, St Michael’s Industrial Estate Singapore 328958 Website: www.selectbooks.com.sg Panorama InsIghts Into asIan and euroPean affaIrs security architectures under threat the status of multilateral fora Contents Preface 7 The East Asia Summit: On a Road to Somewhere? 9 Ralf Emmers The ARF in Transformation 21 Le Hai Binh The ASEAN Regional Forum in the Face of Great-Power Competition in the South China Sea: The Limits of ASEAN’s Approach in Addressing 21st-Century Maritime Security Issues? 31 Renato Cruz De Castro The Impact of East Asian Security Challenges on Southeast Asia 47 Hoo Chiew-Ping Choosing Sides? Illiberalism and Hedging in the Philippines and Thailand 63 Olli Suorsa and Mark R. Thompson The Emergence of a 2nd Order Security Architecture in the Asia-Pacific 77 Howard Loewen The New US Foreign and Security Policy vis-á-vis Northeast Asia 91 Stefan Fröhlich The Japanese Security Environment and Its Relationship with NATO 103 Yoko Nitta Adaptation Under Pressure: NATO and the EU in the Shifting European Security Landscape 113 Patrick Keller The European Security Order At Risk 127 Gustav C. Gressel Eurasian Security Cooperation: Issue Areas and Outcomes 147 May-Britt U. Stumbaum Preface The past decades have witnessed a steady growth of regional security fora and insti- tutions in Asia and Europe, working together for the prosperity and stability of their member states. However, with the emergence of new security threats and precarious security concerns, there is a need to re-examine the security architectures in both regions. Through a realistic review of the current network of multilateral initiatives, the most effective and viable approach to address the rapidly changing global secu- rity order can be identified. Mulitlateral fora have been playing an essential role in building confidence as well as promoting accepted norms, rules, and peaceful dispute settlement. They thereby reduce strategic disagreements. While there is no continent-wide organisa- tion like the Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Asia, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been seen as a driver of many preventive diplomacy initiatives, such as the East Asia Summit, ASEAN Regional Forum and ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting. These fora have helped to spread cooperative security norms, engaged the major powers and contributed to the strengthening of the security architecture in the region. However, overlaps between the fora, the changing global security landscape and the shifting balance of power in East Asia have hindered the processes from achieving their full potential, ultimately resulting in the failure to build a stable institutionalised Asian security architecture. Although new security threats have emerged in Europe and the continent is faced with a deterioration of the security in its immediate neighbourhood, the ar- rangements already in place can be viewed as a good example of the practice of conflict prevention and management. The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), OSCE, Council of Europe and a series of collaborative measures on the European Union-level have shaped the security landscape in Europe and provided the much-needed stability that enabled the continent to become the economic powerhouse it is today. Yet, recent developments have highlighted the still existing challenges and the lack of effective harmonisation and integration of security and defence matters in the European Union. The Russian activities in Ukraine and in cyber space have raised questions on how effective the security arrangements are in reality. The increasing unpredictability resulting from the announced changes in the new US administration’s foreign policy, especially with regard to NATO, also raise questions on how ready Europe is to ensure its own security and stability. Growing maritime and territorial disputes, and increasing armament, terrorism, nationalism as well as non-traditional threats underline the need for robust and mul- Preface tipronged cooperation approaches on security issues. These challenges affect Asia and Europe alike, which makes it imperative for countries from both regions to work 7 together to build a stable security order. In the context of the return of great-power politics and a general shift towards unilateral actions, European and Asian countries should work collaboratively and embrace multilateral as well as regional solutions. In this issue of our biannual journal Panorama: Insights into Asian and European Affairs, the authors discuss the current security challenges in the realm of the new global security landscape. Based on analyses of the different threats and dynamics, the papers look at ways to strengthen cooperative security arrangements. They argue that such collaborative initiatives are ultimately the most promising av- enues to contain the transnational insecurities and build trust in order to develop a regional security architecture that will ensure regional stability and peace. Christian Echle Director, Regional Programme Political Dialogue Asia Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Security Architectures Under Threat Architectures Under Security 8 The East Asia Summit: On a Road to Somewhere? Ralf Emmers Introduction A multilateral architecture exists today in the Asia-Pacific to address a challenging security environment. It consists of overlapping multilateral bodies and is the result of an incremental process that started in the 1990s. Complementing bilateral strate- gic ties structured around the United States (US), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its associated fora such as the East Asia Summit (EAS), the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), and the ASEAN Defense Ministerial Meeting Plus (ADMM+) provide multilateral venues for regional countries to exchange strategic perspectives and work toward mutual understanding on security issues. The core principles of the Asia-Pacific architecture are based on national sovereignty, non- interference in the affairs of other states, and non-use of force to resolve inter-state differences. In addition, an informal process of interaction defines the norms of behaviour in the multilateral architecture. It includes a high level of informality, dialogue, self-restraint, and consensus building. This paper examines the ASEAN-led multilateral architecture by focusing on one of its specific cooperative bodies, the East Asia Summit. It first discusses its origins, institutional design, and evolving membership. Attention is also given to its agenda and capacity to influence regional events. The paper then argues that the current challenges faced by the EAS consist of institutional constraints and geopo- litical considerations linked to rising great-power competition in the Asia-Pacific. In response, the paper concludes that the EAS should go back to basics and encour- age the type of informal rules of diplomatic engagement it was initially meant to promote to enhance peace and stability in the region. They are said to include a bal- ance of influence between the parties involved, a reliance on a cooperative security approach, and more active ASEAN leadership. The East Asia Summit: On a Road to Somewhere? The East 9 * This article was submitted on 11 August 2017 and revised on 14 March 2018. Origins of the EAS Most analysts refer to the EAS as an extension of the East Asian Economic Group/ Caucus (EAEC) concept put forward by then Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad in 1990. Mahathir’s original EAEC concept excluded non-Asian states and his proposal was “wryly known as the ‘caucus without Caucasians’ for this very reason”.1 The EAEC was first proposed as a response to the “unsatisfactory progress of the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations”.2 The idea was strongly opposed by external powers, especially the United States and Japan, and by some ASEAN members like Indonesia and Singapore. For example, then US Secretary of State James Baker described the EAEC as a “dangerous idea that would draw a line in the Pacific Ocean and split Japan
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