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Değişim Donuşum■■ ■■ ■■ Kafkaslar Değişim Donuşum■■ ■■ ■■ (Avrasya Üçlemesi 111) 1. Basım KAFKASYA'DA DEĞİŞİM DÖNÜŞÜM (Avrasya Üçlemesi III) Mustafa AYDIN ı www.nobelyayin.com eza içindekiler SUNUŞ: KAFKASYA'NIN DEĞİŞEN DİNAMİKLERİ, 1989-2012.................................................................................................. 1 Mustafa AYDIN KISIM I: BÖLGENİN DÖNÜŞÜMÜ.................................................5 AZERBAYCAN'DA SOVYET SONRASI DÖNEMDE DEĞİŞİM VE DÖNÜŞÜM................................................................... 7 Ayça ERGUN G iriş................................................................................................................7 Bağımsızlıktan Önce Siyasal Toplum .................................................9 Siyasal Seçkinler, Siyasal Partiler ve Seçimler...............................11 Azerbaycan'da Ulus Devlet İnşası, Ulusal Kimlik ve Milliyetçilik...............................................................................................22 Azerbaycan'da Sivil Toplum .............................................................. 25 Azerbaycan'm Dış Politikası................................................................34 Sonuç........................................................................................................... 38 ERMENİSTAN - BAĞIMSIZLIKTAN BUGÜNE.........................43 Diba Nigar GÖKSEL Arka Plan................................................................................................... 43 1991-1998 Levon Ter Petrosyan ve Devlet İnşası......................... 48 Ermenistan'da Devlet-Millet İlişkisi.................................................51 1998-2008 Robert Koçaryan Dönemi ve Oligarklar Çıkmazı....53 2008 ile Alevlenen Zorluklar ve Sarkisyan'm Kısır Döngüden Çıkma Arayışları.............................................................. 57 Sonuç: Kısır Döngü................................................................................ 62 BAĞIMSIZ GÜRCİSTAN'IN 20 YILI: BAŞARISIZ DEVLET Mİ, DEMOKRATİK MODEL ÜLKE Mİ?......................65 Mitat ÇELİKPALA G iriş............................................................................................................. 65 Zviad Gamsakhurdiya ve Bağımsız Gürcistan.............................66 İç Savaş ve Eduard Şevardnadze İktidarı.......................................69 Gül Devrimi ve Mikhael Saakaşvili..................................................82 Ağustos 2008: Rusya-Gürcistan Savaşı........................................... 94 Savaş Sonrası Yeniden Yapılanma.................................................... 97 Sonuç.........................................................................................................109 SOVYET SONRASI DÖNEMDE KUZEY KAFKASYA............113 Zeynel Abidin BESLENEY Nüfus, Etnik, Dü, Din ve Kültürel Yapısıyla Kuzey Kafkasya.................................................................................................. 114 1989 Sonrası Dönemde Kuzey Kafkasya'nın İdari Yapılanması........................................................................................... 119 Putin Dönemi'nde İdari Reformlar.................................................127 Medvedev-Putin İktidarı'nda Yapılan Düzenlemeler.............131 1989 Sonrasında Kuzey Kafkasya'da Yaşanan Çatışmalar....133 Sonuç.........................................................................................................143 KISIM II: ULUSLARARASI REKABETTE KAFKASYA...........145 ABD'NİN KAFKASYA POLİTİKALARI......................................147 Şııhnaz YILMAZ Giriş: Amerikan Dış Politikasının Küresel ve Bölgesel Boyutu.......................................................................................................147 ABD'nin Kafkasya Politikalarının Güvenlik Boyutu............... 150 Kafkasya Bölgesi Ülkeleriyle İkili İlişkiler................................... 160 ABD'nin Kafkasya Politikalarının Enerji ve Ekonomik Boyutu.......................................................................................................163 Sonuç.........................................................................................................171 RUSYA'NIN KAFKASYA POLİTİKASI: SOVYET-SONRASI GERİ ÇEKİLME SÖYLEMİNDEN EMPERYAL MÜDAHALECİLİĞE........................................................................ 173 Oktay F. TANR1SEVER Giriş........................................................................................................... 173 Rusya'nın "Sovyet-sonrası Geri Çekilme" Söyleminin Temelleri.................................................................................................. 176 Vladimir Putin ve Rusya'nın Emperyal Müdahalecilik Politikasına Yönelişi.............................................................................183 2000'li Yıllarda Rusya'nın Gürcistan ile İlişkileri......................187 2000'li Yıllarda Rusya'nın Azerbaycan ile İlişkileri...................192 2000'li Yıllarda Rusya'nın Ermenistan ile İlişkileri...................196 Sonuç Yerine: Emperyal Müdahalecilik Politikasının Kısıtlılıkları ve Çelişldleri...................................................................199 KAFKASYA'DA TÜRK DIŞ VE GÜVENLİK POLİTİKALARININ DEĞİŞEN DİNAMİKLERİ.......................203 Mustafa AYDIN Türkiye'nin Kafkasya'ya Yaklaşımında Genel Etkenler 203 AKP Hükümeti and Türkiye'nin Kafkas Ülkeleriyle İlişkileri.................................................................................................... 209 Taşımacılık Projelerinden Bölgesel Merkeze; Türkiye'nin Enerji Politikası......................................................................................212 İkili İlişkiler: İki Adım İleri, Bir Adım Geri................................. 215 Sonuç.........................................................................................................226 İRAN'IN KAFKASYA POLİTİKASI.............................................. 229 Bayram SİNKAYA Tarihin Mirası........................................................................................229 1990 Sonrası Yeni Jeopolitik Çevre: İran İçin Fırsatlar ve Sorunlar................................................................................................... 232 İran'm Kafkasya Politikasının Temel Unsurları......................... 236 İran ve Karabağ Sorunu..................................................................... 239 İran-Azerbaycan İhşkileri..................................................................241 İran-Ermenistan İhşkileri...................................................................250 İran-Gürcistan İhşkileri...................................................................... 253 Sonuç.........................................................................................................256 KISIM III: SORUNLAR VE ÇÖZÜMLER.....................................257 ENERJİ POLİTİKALARI VE ULUSLARARASI REKABET 259 Hayriye KAHVECİ Rekabetin Odağı: Hazar Enerji Potansiyeli ve Alternatif Çıkış Yollan........................................................................ 261 Doğrudan Aktörler ve Boru Hatlan ...............................................265 Dolayh Aktörler.....................................................................................291 Sonuç.........................................................................................................292 KAFKASYA'DA ÇEVRESEL SORUNLAR VE TEHDİTLER....295 Örgen UĞURLU Bölgesel Çevre Sorunlan ve İşbirliği..............................................295 Kafkasya Ülkelerinin Temel Çevre Sorardan..............................298 Bölgesel Su Kaynaklarına ve Kıyıdaş Denizlere Yönelik Tehditler.................................................................................................. 298 Topraklann Bozulması ve Doğal Afetler......................................302 Kafkasya Ülkelerinin Küresel ve Bölgesel Çevre Politikalarına Genel Bakış..................................................................308 Sonuç.........................................................................................................312 KAFKASYA'DA EKONOMİK DÖNÜŞÜM VE KALKINMA 315 E rol TAYMAZ Giriş........................................................................................................... 315 Nüfus ve Demografik Değişimler................................................... 316 Ekonomik Büyüme ve Refah............................................................ 322 Ekonomik Büyümenin Kaynaklan.................................................325 Bölgesel ve Uluslararası Ticari Bağlantılar.................................. 340 Enerji ve İletimi.....................................................................................344 Sonuç ve Beklentiler.............................................................................346 KAYNAKÇA....................................................................................... 349 SUNUŞ: KAFKASYA'NIN DEĞİŞEN DİNAMİKLERİ, 1989-2012 Mustafa AYDIN* 1989'da Berlin duvarının yıkılmasıyla başlayan sürecin so­ nunda üç yıl gibi kısa bir sürede Sovyetler Birbgi'nin dağılması ve Kasım-Aralık 1991'de Kafkasya ülkelerinin 20. yüzyılda ikinci kez bağımsızlıklarını üan etmeleriyle, bölgede yeni bir dönem ve farkb açılımların önü açıldı. Takip eden dönemde çeşidi bölge dışı ülke­ lerin farkb saiklerle bölgeye gösterdikleri ügi orta-uzun vadede bölgenin tanık olacağı uluslararası rekabetin ük işaretlerini veri­ yordu. Bölgeyi uluslararası gebşmeler açısından ügi çekici küan un­ surlar 1990'b yüların ikinci yarısında iyice belirginlik kazandı: önemb
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