House Dems Eye Modest Gains Suburban Districts Could Be in Play As Candidates Watch Kavanaugh/Ford Showdown by BRIAN A
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V24, N7 Thursday, Sept. 27, 2018 Horse Race: House Dems eye modest gains Suburban districts could be in play as candidates watch Kavanaugh/Ford showdown By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – During our first Indi- ana House forecasts in the weeks following the May primary, we listed President Trump, Special Counsel Robert Muel- Reps. Siegrist ler and even Kim Jong (from left), Un as the “wild cards” Schaibley, Kirch- in potential impacts hofer and Olthoff on this super majority are suburban in- Republican chamber. cumbents facing Well, move over Don, Bob and Kim. All eyes are on Judge Brett Ka- a possible wave. vanaugh and Dr. Christine Blasey Ford when it comes to outside impacts. could have a completely different feel next week. In the dual Senate Judiciary Committee confirma- At this writing, we’re hard-pressed to see Indiana tion hearings, the crazy political crosscurrents could end Democrats picking up more than a handful of seats in what in a mesocyclone depending on how the judge and his ac- many believed would be a blue or pink wave environment. cuser do. So much so that House Republicans aren’t even There’s still a record number of female nominees running going into the field until the dust settles on Thursday. The political environment we’ve been in up until 10 a.m. today Continued on page 3 Mexico Joe & China Mike By MARK SOUDER FORT WAYNE – A modern-day Rip Van Winkle, who just woke up and started to watch ads on television for the Indiana Senate race, might fairly conclude that Hoosiers are obsessing over how to choose between a “They weren’t laughing at me. candidate who had stock in a company run by his brother They were laughing with me. We that had a plant in Mexico and one whose auto supply com- were having a good time. The pany sold parts made in China. United States was respected While I know some of you may have been losing again.” sleep over this dilemma, it is - President Trump, at a obviously somewhere between 98% and 100% irrelevant in presser in which he was this race. It was apparent from the day the media first report- asked about reaction to his ed about Mexico Joe’s stock United Nations speech Page 2 and his sale of it, that the ads would problem. Just in time, delivery sched- be coming. It was also apparent – in ules had jammed up our GM Silverado fact, I predicted it during the primary plant schedules because of parts campaign – that anyone owning any supply problems. As one former plant automobile parts business (actually manager told me, unofficially, each any retail store) would be vulnerable pick-up made had up to 100 Canadian to a “you sell parts made in China” border crossings involved in the thou- slam. sands of parts that go into the truck Howey Politics Indiana But all choices of what ads because there were sister operations to run are instructive – about the can- near Toronto. The plants were syn- WWHowey Media, LLC 405 didates, about their allies, and frankly chronized, for many logical business Massachusetts Ave., Suite about us, the voters. reasons. The American and Canadian 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 First, the obvious: Race mat- auto belts are geographically meshed. www.howeypolitics.com ters, just talk about it indirectly. John However, there are no Mutz lost his close gubernatorial race ads attacking Canada Mike. They largely because of an ad that attacked would seem a tad ridiculous. “Mike Brian A. Howey, Publisher him for bringing in a Japanese plant to Braun drinks Tim Hortons coffee” just Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington Tippecanoe County, back when such doesn’t inspire many people to anger. Cameron Carter, Editor things were inflammatory. It was a In my decade as part of the U.S.- Joel Weyrauch, Editor winking reference, Canada Parliamen- Mary Lou Howey, Editor but it was effective. tary Exchange, Had it been more di- I learned many Mark Curry, Daily Wire, photo rect, it could have led things. Perhaps Jack E. Howey, Editor to backlash. Instead, the most important Emeritus it effectively raised can be illustrated the point. The Japa- by a joke. If you nese were getting our are in a room full Subscriptions money. of Canadians and HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 If you doubt Americans, you HPI Weekly, $350 similar hidden mes- know the quickest HPI Mobile, $5.95 monthly sages in the Indiana way to identify who Ray Volpe, Account Manager Senate race, let’s ad- is from where? dress the actual sub- Loudly say: “Ameri- 317.602.3620 stance of the debate cans and Canadi- email: [email protected] briefly (I recognize ans are just alike.” that the substance is Everyone who not very relevant). President Trump objects will be a Canadian. I actually Contact HPI appears to have renegotiated NAFTA haven’t even met a Canadian who [email protected] with Mexico. It is those Canadians laughed at the joke. Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 who are the actual trade problem, at Furthermore, going even a bit Washington: 202.256.5822 least according to the administration. deeper into the subject, the majority Business Office: 317.602.3620 So the whole Mexico Joe debate is of Americans – and certainly in Indi- pretty irrelevant. ana – disagree with the core of our As for China Mike, the Chi- government’s dispute with Canada, © 2018, Howey Politics na trade war could fix that problem. imported timber. When we’d argue Indiana. All rights reserved. We all will just pay a lot more for auto about this in our cross-border ses- Photocopying, Internet forward- parts, unless his business and oth- sions, most of the American congress- ing, faxing or reproducing in ers replace Chinese-made parts with men supported the Canadians. In the slightly higher-priced parts from our U.S. our wood supplies are limited for any form, whole or part, is a new friends in Mexico. That should many reasons. A limited supply means violation of federal law without make everyone happy, if they actually dramatically higher prices if we are permission from the publisher. are taking the ads seriously. limited to American timber. Further- On the other hand, we don’t more, as a furniture man (I was in our have a deal with Canada yet. In the family’s furniture business for years days immediately following 9/11, as and on the boards of the Indiana and the congressman representing the Midwest Home Furnishings Associa- Fort Wayne area, we had a border tions), there are limitations to soft Page 3 southern pine. And good luck trying to cut down more expensive, and usually useless, to try and undo an im- trees in Oregon, Washington and Northern California. pression that has been burned into people’s minds with In other words, the direct threat to the housing millions of dollars. You must bury it, or all you will do is industry (homebuilding, realtors, financial institutions) is reinforce the original impression. They are not focusing this misguided fight over timber. Our prices could sky- on those ads enough to bury it, and it is not certain they rocket. But I guess it is asking too much for our politicians, could anyway. When they run Braun in a blue shirt, the or even the media, to understand the debate. And the Donnelly campaign might be reinforcing Braun’s original Canadians make for boring political debate. message rather than undoing it. They are incredibly inef- The second part of the Mexico Joe-China Mike fective to anyone except gung-ho Donnelly boosters. It is debate, beyond race, has to do with charges of hypocrisy. one reason, in spite of a low visibility campaign with less Sen. Donnelly knew the border debate was coming so he firepower, Braun remains neck-and-neck with Donnelly. has morphed into a big defender of reasonably strong Donnelly is doing some of his advertising. borders, though not necessarily of a “wall.” He has always The real reason this remains a toss-up, been conservative for a Democrat (easier these days as though, is spelled with five letters, T-R-U-M-P. Donnelly the party drifts left). But he has not regularly focused has desperately tried to localize, Hoosierize, this race for on the threat. Thus “Mexico Joe” was seen as a way to the simple reason that if he can, he will win. People like highlight the candidate’s differences related to the border. Joe, I like Joe. People believe Joe has fought for Hoosiers; It was also a way to raise DACA without raising DACA. I believe, and know, that he has. But every day, every Raising the China Mike issue was partly defensive hour, nearly every minute, this president manages to on the part of the Donnelly campaign just as Mexico Joe dominate all news. Even sports (e.g. the NFL) and weather was by Braun. Braun’s campaign knew his vulnerability for (e.g. hurricanes). If this race nationalizes, Braun wins. purchasing Chinese and Mexican-made parts in this busi- The Kavanaugh debate has galvanized Republi- ness. But Donnelly’s campaign and allies also mixed this cans. They are now as angry and fired up as the Demo- attack into a “blue shirt” attack ad. crats. How our Senator votes on Kavanaugh may define The problem with the “blue shirt” attack ad is a November’s vote, especially if Kavanaugh is not confirmed. rather simple marketing principle which, apparently, they If so, Braun wins. forgot. For example, the attacks on his business practices On the other hand, that assumes that the presi- didn’t work in the primary, and except for union activists dent doesn’t tweet or say anything else controversial (as opposed to the rank and file who voted for Trump) before November.