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GOP House Majority Seems Safe 6 Tossup Races Mark HPI’S First Fall General Election Forecast for Indiana House by BRIAN A

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GOP House Majority Seems Safe 6 Tossup Races Mark HPI’S First Fall General Election Forecast for Indiana House by BRIAN A V25, N43 Thursday, July 23, 2020 GOP House majority seems safe 6 tossup races mark HPI’s first fall general election forecast for Indiana House By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – Sixteen Indiana House seats make the first Howey Politics Indiana general election competitive list, with six tossup races. As in the summer of 2016, the speculation at this writing is whether a Demo- cratic wave is set- ting up and if it does, how far down ballot Speaker Todd Huston faces does it reach? a rematch with Democrat Democratic presidential nominee Aimee Rivera Cole., Joe Biden had a 15% lead in an ABC/Wash- ington Post poll over the weekend. But New York Times Upshot columnist Nate Cohn explained, “After win the national vote by more than 3.9 percentage points. a quarter-century of closely fought elections, it is easy to The other big leads all proved short-lived.” assume that wide leads are unsustainable in today’s deeply Continued on page 3 polarized country. Only Barack Obama in 2008 managed to School reopening dilemma By MICHAEL HICKS MUNCIE – With some reluctance I write about the decisions that grip some 30,000 school districts across the country. I am hesitant because I don’t wish to be prescrip- tive about the most contentious issue of in-person versus “We’re asking our kids and their remote learning. In our republic, decisions of this nature are inher- teachers to mask up, and our ently local. As both a parent and keen observer of schools, this kids should not be getting mixed suggests to me that school dis- messages throughout the day.” tricts are trying to address issues as completely and thoughtfully as - Gov. Eric Holcomb, announcing possible. a face mask mandate that will What I wish to do with this column is outline the very begin next Monday, after state high stakes of this decision and COVID positivity rates increased walk through how the rest of us might make that decision simpler. from 3.6% to 8%. Page 2 Both the decision to hold choices, only grim ones. But, there in-person classes and the decision is at least one action we can all take to go online have enormous costs. to ease this burden on teachers and The landscape for decision making is school administrators. We can cre- tough. ate a culture of compliance with the Indiana has about 1.1 mil- wearing of masks. Howey Politics Indiana lion kids in grades K-12 spread across It must be said that the WWWHowey Media, LLC almost 300 school corporations. Of anti-mask animus of the past few c/o Business Office these, about 7% or more have no in- months is fueled by President Trump PO Box 6553 ternet at home, and many more have and aided by confused statements intermittent service or slow download by the CDC. From the beginning, his Kokomo, IN, 46904 speed. All told, somewhere between mockery of mask wearing and magi- www.howeypolitics.com one third and one half of Hoosier cal thinking about COVID turned an kids face real learning obstacles with ordinary public health matter into a Brian A. Howey, Publisher online instruction. bizarre statement of personal politics. Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington It should be obvious that This deeply immoral approach has the school closing in March Mary Lou Howey, Editor was most damaging to those Susan E. Joiner, Editor students who were already the most vulnerable. It is likely the Subscriptions learning gap between the poor- est and most affluent students HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 grew more last year than at HPI Weekly, $350 any time in American history. Lisa Hounchell, Account Manager This is a strong argument for (765) 452-3936 telephone opening schools, but there is (765) 452-3973 fax more. [email protected] If schools do not re- open, we will extend the single Contact HPI worst labor supply shock in [email protected] U.S. history. By my count, 7% to 10% been carried into every corner of the Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 of workers are either single parents or nation by a vast propaganda op- one partner of a dual income couple eration. It is more inexplicable than Washington: 202.256.5822 with children age 5 to 12 years. Many, anything I have seen. Business Office: 765.452.3936 perhaps most, of these workers will Mask wearing should be an be unable to work if schools don’t re- uncontroversial issue. As one of my © 2020, Howey Politics open. The loss of this many workers kids’ teachers noted, schools have Indiana. All rights reserved. alone is enough to push us right to dress codes covering the length of the brink of a depression. shorts, the covering of shoulders and Photocopying, Internet forward- The cost of opening is also the wearing of identification cards on ing, faxing or reproducing in any profound. The global pandemic re- a lanyard. How then, she asked, can form, whole or part, is a violation mains with us. Caseloads and deaths masks be provocative? They cannot of federal law without permission grow at a rate suggesting emerging be, and all of us have a moral and from the publisher. problems this summer and fall. It is practical duty to our communities to nearly certain that re-opening schools change this dangerous gambit. will increase the mortality and mor- Today, school boards across Jack E. Howey bidity of COVID-19. I don’t know by America wrestle about re-opening editor emeritus how much, but it will not be trivial. I decisions simply because they fear 1926-2019 am certain that by late August we will anger toward masks and other basic have news and social media reports of public health measures. This is COVID spread among teachers, staff simply crazy. If you care about the and children. COVID deaths among economy and about student learning teachers and students are inevitable. and health, wear a mask. Principals and school boards I know that elected lead- face enormous pressure as the ers from school boards to governors disease spreads. As the academic worry about the inevitable backlash if year approaches there are no happy they mandate the wearing of masks. Page 3 In this climate of fear, no one wishes to be first elected official has ever made. It quite literally balances to announce tough restrictions. This leaves school boards risk of death alongside that of economic depression and a hesitant to take actions that would calm parents and lost generation of vulnerable students. This is a decision teachers. Fixing this requires action at the state level. It is environment combat leaders face. telling that 18 out of 24 states with Democratic governors As we thank school leaders for their service, we have statewide mask requirements, but only two out of 26 must also ensure we do everything we can to allow them with GOP governors have them. Even accounting for dif- to focus on the task at hand. This must be a decision about ferences in disease spread, this is a stunning indictment of how best to educate children while satisfying the needs of political courage. public health. It must not be about dodging the political ire As I said at the outset, I support strong local of a collapsing political movement. v control of schools, but on this matter, it is too late. The president has already intervened in local decision-making Michael J. Hicks, PhD, is the director of the Center about school re-opening and the wearing of masks. Undo- for Business and Economic Research and the George ing the damage of the Trump Administration will require and Frances Ball distinguished professor of econom- better state leadership. ics in the Miller College of Business at Ball State The choices of how and when to re-open schools University. are the most consequential decisions almost any current Even if the Trump slump persists, Republicans appear to Indiana House, from page 1 have Holcomb as a down-ballot bulwark. There are two big differences between 2016 and That includes Democrat Mike Dukakis’s double 2020. First, Hillary Clinton is not the Democratic nominee. digit lead over Vice President George H.W. Bush in 1988 She stoked real hatred among the Republican base and that turned into a third consecutive Republican term in the turned off many independents, who decided to take a roll White House. of the dice on Donald Trump. It would take a Democratic wave on par with land- Secondly, the pandemic and accompanying eco- slide years of 1964 and 1974 to put much of a dent in the nomic meltdown have dramatically altered the landscape. Republican super majority. Even in that extreme scenario, If Trump had managed to get the pandemic under control it is hard to see the GOP losing the majority outright. The with jobs returning, it might have aided and abetted a 2011 reapportioned maps have proven to be historically Trump/Pence comeback. Instead, a resurgent Part 2 of the durable for the Grand Old Party. first wave is dogging Trump, winnowing his own prospects. Our list of 16 House races includes the open seats Wave years have impacted the Indiana General of Republican Reps. Brian Bosma, David Wolkins, Woody Assembly before. The 1964 LBJ landslide took a House Burton and Ron Bacon, and Democrat Rep. Mara Candale- majority away from the GOP, giving Democrats a 40-plus ria Reardon. All are expected to remain with their current seat majority. The 1974 Watergate mid-term election gave party. Senate Democrats their first and only majority for a mere The six tossup races include three rematches: Rep.
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