Senate

MEMORANDUM

As of 5-19-69 the Senate had raised $102,550 the House $150,875 which gives the Senate credit for of the funds raised jointly. We have an agreed 45-55 split which means the Senate is doing something less than its share to date.

Total funds raised to date

is $284,095 Senator:

As per your request, with some added thoughts, for your approval, is the attached run down on the Committees. Eiler Should the Democrats lose control of the Senate in 1970, the Standing Committees of the 92nd Congress will in all likelyhood have the following as Chairmen:

AERONAUTICAL AND SPACE SCIENCES

Replacing Clinton Anderson, will be either Carl Curtis or assuming takes over Armed Services.

AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY

Jack Miller is the likely replacement for Senator Ellender

APPROPRIATIONS

Milton Young would be replacing Richard Russell

ARMED SERVICES

Margaret Chase Smith replacing John Stennis

BANKING AND CURRENCY

John Tower will likely replace as Bennett is likely to chose the Finance Committee

COMMERCE

Norris Cotton replaces

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

Winston Prouty or possible replaces Joe Tydings

FINANCE

Wallace Bennett will replace Russell Long assuming John Williams does not change his mind about seeking re-election.

FOREIGN RELATIONS

George Aikin replaces Bill Fulbright

GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS

Karl Mundt replaces John McClellan

INTERIOR COMMITTEE Gordon Allott replaces Scoop Jackson Committee replacements p. 2

JUDICIARY

Everett Dirksen replaces

LABOR AND PUBLIC WELFARE

Jacob Javits replaces Ralph Yarborough

POST OFFICE AND CIVIL SERVICE

Hiram Fong replaces Gale McGee

PUBLIC WORKS

John Sherman Cooper will replace

RULES AND ADMINISTRATION

Hugh Scott will replace E. Everett Jordan assuming Carl Curtis takes Aeronautics and Space.

On the Select and Special Committees, we would find Marlow Cook re- placing George McGovern on Nutrition and Human Needs; Peter Dominick replacing on Small Business; and apparently re- placing Pete Williams on the Special Committee on Aging.

A further factor which we should remember is that if we win only half of the 34 seats which are up for re-election next year, we lose control of the Senate.

We lost 15 of the 25 states in which we have Democratic Senators up for re- election in the Presidential campaign in 1968 and 8 of those 15 by 10 per cent or more. The margin of our party's loss was 19 per cent in Gale McGee's state, 18 per cent in Burdick's , 21 per cent in Moss's Utah, 12 per cent in Hartke's state, 8 per cent in Montoya's state, 7 points in 's, 12 per cent in Gores' and 11 per cent in Holland's Florida. And in all of these except North Dakota and we also have Republican Governors. As you also know, we are facing serious problems in a number of the other states.

What I am saying is that even if Nixon and the Republican Party are no more popular in 1970 than they were in 1968, we will have a very very difficult time retaining control of the Senate--and we have no reason to believe this will be the case. The latest Gallup Poll of several weeks ago showed Nixon defeat- ing what is generally regarded as our most popular possible candidate by 19 per cent. p. 3

Loss of the Senate is then not just a mathematical possibility. What I am trying to impress upon you is that it is a very likely--probably the most likely result, as things now stand.

You may have read that the Republicans raised $2. 6 to 2. 8 million dollars on their May 7th Dinner. We know we can't do that well, but Gentlemen, I am saying that we must do all we can do, and we must do much better than we have done to date. MEMORANDUM TO: Daniel K. Inouye, Chairman

FROM: Nordy Hoffmann

SUBJECT: COPE Leadership Conferences Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont May 26-27-28, 1969

NEW JERSEY - Lose in 1968 due to a less than maximum effort by Labor, and a deterioration of the Party effort. Lack of registration and COPE drive were primary reasons.

The Operating Engineers endorsed Nixon. The State House went Republican due to the Strike Benefit Bill, Busing Bill and the 3% Sales Tax.

We may lose Congressmen Minnish, Helstoski and Thompson because of gerry- mandering. Candidates for Governor are Democrats - Miner, Helstoski, Parsekian, Toute and Kelly. Miner appears to be the hading candidate. He has some Party endorsements, but is having some trouble with Labor.

On the Republican side, the candidates are Sandman (conservative), Congress- man Cahill, McDermott, Sears and Oser. It is a very close race between Sandmen and Cahill. Senator Williams’ image is greatly improved but ell factions must give their absolute support in order to win. His publicity, since January 1, has been excellent.

NEW YORK - New York State leaders fail to cooperate. Must work through the central bodies. COPE has endorsed Wagner for Mayor in New York.

Discussion of marginal Congressional Districts by Howard Samuels. Discussion of marginal Assembly Districts by Pooch Malle.

Registration for 1969 funds are available. . . about $500,000. Prepare a budget for your needs and a program for general registration with a view toward the marginal areas. COPE puts up $2.00 for every $1.00 from your area. The Senatorial race was deferred until after the Mayorality race. Senator Kennedy - Parise of Al Barkan for his work. Difficult times in the country, War in Vietnam, Underhanded programs, end inequities in the Tax system resented by working people. Programs passed by Congress are underfinanced because of the drain of the war in Vietnam. Tax reform is a must - close loopholes. We are not coming to grip with the loophole problem.

No rrom in this country for undernourished people. There are farm sub- sidies for not growing crops and yet people in our country are hungry. Democrats are fighting to reform Tax, Draft and Education. Young people should be treated equally.

Republicans have eight million dollars for House and Senate.

Kennedy met last night with Senator Muskie and Humphrey to work out Party problems.

VERMONT - Generally agreed in 1968. No Democratic Party operation. Labor put on the only drive in Vermont.

Phil Hoff was no help in the election. Francis Esposito is the new Demo- cratic leader in Vermont, and for the first time, they have a full time man working for the Democratic Party. Hoff will definitely run against Prouty for the Senate.

Prouty is a weak candidate, and never returns to the State. Vermont people are not aware of Prouty’s problem but recognize Hoff has a problem. However, Hoff can win. Republican Governor passing a Sales Tax. Congressman Stafford will not contest Prouty if he stands for re-election. Prouty has spent very little time in the State.

Hoff’s personal problems have been solved and he can win. The Republicans are plagued with the Governor, as he is proposing a Sales Tax. He will be opposed for re-election by one of the following Democrats: Tom Solmon, Leo O’Brien, Bob Barden or a man named Cain. Congressional chances are slim for the Democrats against the very popular Republican Stafford. Twenty-five thousand people in Vermont who have incomes of less than $3,000 per year are ready to change back to the Democrats "Programs for Progress". IBM’s Watson has taken up residence in Vermont, and may be a Republican candidate for Governor.

MAINE - The Democratic Party is in better shape than ever. Muskie will not have opposition, and it is likely that both Congressmen and Governor will be re- elected.

MASSACHUSETTS - In 1968, we did learn to coordinate all of Labor for the first time. Wallace was an issue in the beginning, and it was reduced to a minimum defection. Busing, Negro question - also on the plus side we involved young people. We must involve young people. We must broaden Labor’s base in the Commonwealth. was not actively campaigning except on TV. The outlook for 1970 - Candidates for Governor will be Bellotti, Donohue, White and O’Donnell and, as of now, Maurice Donohue will be the front- runner at the Convention which selects the candidate. However, it is not binding on anyone else not to also run. One of the new laws in Massachusetts is that the term of Governor will be for four years, therefore, it is incum- bent upon the Democrats to formulate some unified policy or else they will be out of power, for four years.

The Republicans do not win in Massachusetts - the Democrats defeat themselves.

There is the problem of the Sales Tax, and other issues which are presently muddying the waters. It is apparent that Volpe left the State in a tough financial shape.

The real problem is that one candidate will be decided upon at the Convention, and unless unity has been solidified, the other three people will go directly to the people and run on Kennedy's coattails. TO: INITIAL DATE

1. Senator Inouye via Eiler Ravnholt

2.

3.

4.

X FYI prepare reply comment & advice see me approval as requested investigate as promised note & return P. C. first name file ! reply for signature of REMARKS: *Access to articles restricted to University of Hawai'i affiliates only. Items in eVols are protected

by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.

Riesel, V. (February, 1970). HHH Secret Session: Humphrey-Kennedy United Front Team

Running Closed Caucuses Across the U.S., pp01-02. Riesel, V. (February, 1970). HHH Secret Session: Humphrey-Kennedy United Front Team

Running Closed Caucuses Across the U.S., pp01-02. MINUTES OF THE DEMOCRATIC SENATORIAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE Wednesday, March 26, 1969, S-120, The Capitol 12:30 p.m.

Members present:

Senator Inouye Senator Cannon Senator Harris Senator Hart Senator Hartke Senator Hollings Senator McIntyre Senator Muskie Senator Nelson Senator Pastore Senator Sparkman Senator Tydings Senator Yarborough Senator Young

Nordy Hoffmann Eiler Ravnholt Berl Bernhard Stan Kimmitt Neale Roach George M. Steinbrenner III

Senator Inouye opened the meeting and announced that a

comparison of ticket sales for the Congressional Dinner as of this

date during the past four years reflects:

1966 - no receipts 1967 - no receipts 1968 - $5,000 1969 - $17,500

He stated that this indicated to him that the dinner this year would be the most successful ever held by the Campaign Committee.

The Chairman introduced Mr. George M. Steinbrenner III who

has accepted the chairmanship of the 1969 Democratic Congressional

Dinner (see press release attached). -2-

Mr. Steinbrenner spoke briefly, emphasizing that he would do his best to make this the best dinner ever and that he was ap- proaching it as a national dinner rather than only as a Washington or regional event.

Chairman Inouye announced that the Committee now has limited funds available for disbursement to offset travel costs. Incumbents should contact Nordy Hoffmann and express their desire in this regard.

Senator Yarborough again emphasized that travel assistance was the most important thing this year. He reiterated the feelings of ex-Senators Monroney and Morse that the main reason they were defeated was that they had not been in the state often enough during their campaigns.

Senator Pastore questioned Senator Yarborough as to how he conducted his campaign in the State at this time?

Senator Yarborough replied that he concentrated on accept- ing invitations to functions throughout the state. He has not generated specific events or developed a plan to cover the entire state. The latter would develop later in the campaign.

Senator Inouye advised the Committee that he had issued invitations to Presidents Johnson and Truman and Vice President

Humphrey for the May 12 dinner. The Committee unanimously approved his action.

Senator Yarborough related a recent experience at the LBJ

Ranch when Congressman Pickle invited a Congressional committee to view a Job Corps Camp in that area. President Johnson was gratified with the attitude of the Committee and individuals thereon, Republicans -3- and Democrats alike.

Senator Inouye commented that Senator Nelson's seminars on communications media were very well handled but he was disappointed in that relatively few Senators attended. A large number of staff persons turned out, but it is important that incumbent Senators participate.

Senator Nelson explained what had occurred during the seminars and stated that when six or more Senators would meet together regardless of the hour, he would have the professionals back to repeat their pre- sentations .

Senator Tydings suggested a week night for this purpose since incumbents were required to be in their states on weekends. During the session, the committee meetings and floor action required their presence, thus making it difficult to attend these special seminars.

Senator Pastore agreed that this was the case and felt that a group could have an early evening dinner, for example 6:00 p.m., and follow by two hours of discussion.

Senator Nelson agreed to conduct the program whenever a suitable audience of Senators could be collected.

Senator Inouye stated that there were eight Republican seats and one announced vacancy which would be up in 1970. He questioned the

Committee as to shether he and other members of the Committee should visit these states early for the purpose of generating Democratic candidates?

Senator Tydings stated that there was precedent for this in that he and Senator Muskie did it in 1966. -4-

Senator Inouye stated that in some areas it would be difficult, for example in where five Democrats had already indicated a desire to run. The procedure would have to allow for becoming informed on the local scene without becoming involved in a primary campaign.

Senator Sparkman questioned whether this Committee should get involved or whether it was more properly the function of the

Democratic National Committee.

Senator Pastore agreed that the question should be resolved, whether it was within the jurisdiction of Senator Harris and the

National Committee or Senator Inouye and the Democratic Campaign Com- mittee-

Senator Muskie stated that he felt that this Committee should get involved to the extent that it should learn what the situation is in each state. He pointed out that in 1958, this committee worked hard under the chairmanship of Senator Clements to develop candidates capable of winning Senate seats. He further stated that the primary function of the Committee is to support incumbents but that we must not overlook the potential of supporting new candidates to maintain the Democratic majority in the Senate.

Senator Tydings stated that he felt Delaware was a particularly appropriate place for the Committee to begin. There are candidates in that State who can win the seat being vacated by Senator Williams and it is not too soon to develop support for the party there. -5-

Senator Inouye stated that it -was his intention as

Chairman of the Committee to visit Delaware at their invitation but he first wanted to hear the views of other Committee members.

The meeting closed at 1:40 p.m. DANIEL K. INOUYE MICHAEL J. KIRWAN, M.C.

HAWAII

CHAIRMAN, Democratic CHAIRMAN, Democratic

Senatorial Campaign Committee Congressional Campaign Committee

DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL DINNER COMMITTEE

MAYFLOWER HOTEL. WASHINGTON, D. C. 20036 • Telephone ( 202 ) 7 37-8 1 2 1

Neale Roach

Director

Aiden J. Kirwan, C.P.A.

COMPTROLLER Senator Daniel K. Inouye, Chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign

Committee, and Congressman Michael J. Kirwan, Chairman of the Democratic

Congressional Campaign Committee, announced today the appointment of George

M. Steinbrenner III as chairman of the 1969 Democratic Congressional Dinner.

In accepting the appointment as chairman of the annual fund raising dinner,

Steinbrenner said, “I am highly complimented to have been chosen for this

important post.”

Steinbrenner, who regards himself as a political independent, emphasized his

interest in asserting his leadership towards good government. He added, ”At

this time, the most significant contribution I can make towards ensuring our

country with responsible government will be the support and election of truly

capable and concerned people to Congress in 1970 -- the purpose of this dinner,”

Steinbrenner is currently serving as chairman and chief executive officer of

the American Ship Building Co.

An active participant in community projects, he is chairman of the Greater

Cleveland Urban. Coalition, an organization charged with coordinating civic

projects in the City of . He has also spearheaded community develop-

ment activities as chairman of the "Cleveland: Now" program and Group 66, a

civic organization for businessmen,

Last year, Steinbrenner was named Cleveland’s "Man of the Year” and the

youngest of Fortune Magazine’s 12 outstanding ’’Movers and Shakers” across the

nation.

Senator Inouye and Congressman Kirwan also announced that re ional co-chairmen

are being selected to assist Steinbrenner in making this ’’the most successful

Democratic Congressional Campaign Dinner ever.”

Dinner, Monday, May 12, 1969 ...... Washington Hilton Hotel, Washington, D. C. TO: INITIAL DATE

1. Senator Inouye via, Eiler Ravnholt______

2. ______

3. ______

4. ______

X FYI prepare reply comment & advice see me approval as requested investigate as promised 1 note & return P. C. first name file ! reply for signature of REMARKS:

FROM: DATE: Fl Nordy 4/7/69 2000 FLORIDA AVE., N.W. • WASHINGTON, D.C. 20009 • Area Code 202, 265-7400

April 2, 1969

Mr. Frank N. Hoffman Democratic Senate Campaign Committee 130 Old Senate Office Building Washington, D. C. 20025

Dear Nordy:

Thank you very much for taking the time to come to our Atlantic City meeting. This opportunity to discuss some of the key 1970 election races will pay off, I am sure, in better working relationships and more effective activities on the part of each of us.

We got off to a good start. The test will be what happens from here on. As a result of our Atlantic City session, our fellows see the ur- gency of an aggressive follow-up. I hope this is a good omen.

Again, many thanks to you.

Sincerely yours,

Kermit Overby, Director Legislation and Research Department

KO:bd

cc

LOW COST ELECTRIC POWER FOR AMERICA

DEMOCRATIC SENATORIAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE ROOM 130 SENATE OFFICE BUILDING

SENATORS: WASHINGTON, D. C. 20510 EILER RAVNHOLT SECRETARY-TREASURER DANIEL K. INOUYE, , CHM. TELEPHONE (202) 225-2447 , WIS., V. CHM. BERL BERNHARD CLINTON P. ANDERSON, N.M. GENERAL COUNSEL THOMAS F. EAGLETON, MO. FRANK N. HOFFMANN FRED R. HARRIS. EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR ERNEST F. HOLLINGS. S.C. THOMAS J. MCINTYRE, N.H. WARREN G. MAGNUSON, WASH. WALTER F. MONDALE, MINN. ABRAHAM RIBICOFF, CONN. JOHN SPARKMAN, ALA. WILLIAM B, SPONG, JR., VA. EDMUND S. MUSKIE, MAINE, EX OFFICIO

MEMORANDUM TO: Daniel K. Inouye, Chairman

FROM: Nordy Hoffmann

SUBJECT: COPE Leadership Conference - June 27-28, 1969

HAWAII - Attending were Francis Kennedy, AFL-CIO President, Fumi Inge, President of the Women's Auxiliary, Walter Gray and Margaret Thornburg, AFL-CIO.

It appears that Gill is going to oppose Burns in the Primary. Kennedy does not feel that Fong can be defeated.

The Republican and Democratic coalition in has been broken up. One of the major issues ■which has arisen evolves around the economy of tourism. It is felt that some controls must be put on tourism, and further industry must be brought into the Islands. There are special shipping problems involved and conservation problems. This is all part of the power struggle.

Burns is aligned with the developers and Magic Island. The Mayor has taken a strong stand on Conservation.

No one has been able to determine where stands in the whole operation, but if Fong is to be defeated, the Democrats must now start to cut him up. No one in Congress, as of now, is really hitting at Fong. There will be some ILA support for him and some from the Federal employees. Both House seats are now safe but if either Patsy or Sparky run, it could create a problem.

Labor is going to attempt to organize the groups in the outer Islands which are now being developed. The IBEW supplied a full time person during the 1968 campaign and some of the local Unions also supplied a full time person The biggest problem confronting Labor in the Islands is the political minds of their own people, and the only person who can bring any unity toward the unseating of Fong is Senator Inouye. San Francisco COPE -2- JUne 27-28 continued

ALASKA - Attending were Dwayne Carlson and Henry Hedberg, AFL-CIO.

Alaska Democrats have to reconstruct their Party. It appears that Bill Egan will run for Governor. Napolitan is now taking a poll which should be completed in August.

Miller, Brad Phillips and Pollack will be the candidates on the Republican ticket. There is a strong possibility that Stevens will opposition in the Primary. Wendell Kay will not file against Governor Egan. Stevens has a good Labor record and will have Labor support.

Gravel has not shown the leadership that was expected, and Coffstein is the backbone of the Party. Gravel has not done much, as yet, to help rebuild the Party.

It is too early to tell for 1969. They expect to have great registra- tion in the Winter months. The native minorities have a problem and there must be a reworking of the program. This includes individual operations for the Indian, Eskimos and the Negro groups.

UTAH - Attending were Everett Burger, President, AFL-CIO; Betty Beck, WAD Director; Lamar Gulbranson, COPE Pacific Coast Director; John Klass and Mike Dirksen, State Democratic Committee.

It is thought that there will be trouble in Utah to re-elect Senator Moss. There is a tremendous amount of money to be spent to defeat him.

The State Democratic Party is the strongest it has ever been; however, there is a conflict between the County Party in Salt Lake and the State Party. This breach is being worked on now and it is hoped that it will be successfully healed.

The legislative posture has improved in Utah and Governor Cal Rampton is very strong. It is assumed that Congressman Burton will run against Moss. In 1964, Moss and Rampton carried Utah - they ran 20,000 votes ahead of LBJ.

Labor must get its own House in order which they are in the process of doing at the present time, but Senator Moss must schedule more time with the Labor movement in Utah than he is presently doing. Unquestionably, Burton is the strongest candidate against Moss. An early registration is paramount in 1969. San Francisco COPE -3- June 27-28 continued

The Democrats in Weaver County (Ogden) have arranged a. Fund-Raising check off from Democrats from $l-$10 per month. This is a new innova- tion in fund-raising and it bears watching for success or failure. They are endeavoring to find a new, strong face from Ogden to run for Burton's House seat. It is assumed that Dan Berman will run against Congressman Lloyd.

Labor must take a positive position firmly behind Ted Moss. His voting record is beyond repute. However, all parties agree that there must be some changes in the administration of his office in Salt Lake. It is estimated that approximately 80% of the Labor membership in Salt Lake are now registered. This is conceded by Labor and the Democratic Party to be a fair figure.

WASHINGTON - Attending were Joe Davis, State President AFL-CIO; Mark Williams, Sec.-Treas. AFL-CIO; Jim Bender, King County President, AFL-CIO.

The political situation looks fairly good. Senator Jackson now recognizes the problem which will face him with the new politics group, in his Primary, because of his military stand. It is assumed that his opposition in the Democratic Primary will spend somewhere between $250-500,000 against him. One of the problems which is contributing to Jackson's dilemma is Congress- man Brock Adams' attitude, and that of his Administrative Assistant Seidwell, who has been so strong in his opposition to Jackson that the Machinists (Boeing) are not going to support Brock Adams for re-election, and are hoping to field a strong moderate Democrat to run against Adams. Jackson will have a strong Republican candidate against him in State's Attorney Gordon. Jackson has much work to do in the field and has not made the rounds with the Labor people. It is felt that he is "Boeing's Senator".

For the rest of the Congressional Delegation, Meads, Hicks and Foley are in good shape. Representative Pelley could be a marginal race, however the Maritime unions will probably support him. Julia Butler Hansen is a safe situation, as is Katherine May.

The problem basically is registration and King County (Seattle) has an archaic system. It is almost a preventative registration.

NEVADA - Attending were Al Bramlett and Lou Paley, along with Dorothy Jackson.

Paley feels Laxalt will run against Cannon and will be a tough opponent. If not, it will probably be Raggio. The most paramount program is imme- diate registration.

Ralph Lecon, who has been with the Machinists, is retiring and it is hoped that he will head up the COPE operation in . DEMOCRATIC SENATORIAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE ROOM 130 SENATE OFFICE BUILDING

SENATORS: WASHINGTON. D. C. 20510 EILER RAVNHOLT SECRETARY-TREASURER DANIEL K. INOUYE, HAWAII, CHM. TELEPHONE (202) 225-2447 BERL BERNHARD GAYLORD NELSON, WIS., V. CHM. GENERAL COUNSEL CLINTON P. ANDERSON, N.M. THOMAS F. EAGLETON, MO. FRANK N. HOFFMANN FRED R. HARRIS, OKLAHOMA EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR ERNEST F. HOLLINGS, S.C. THOMAS J. MCINTYRE, N.H. WARREN G. MAGNUSON, WASH. WALTER F. MONDALE, MINN. ABRAHAM RIBICOFF, CONN. JOHN SPARKMAN, ALA. WILLIAM B, SPONG, JR., VA. EDMUND S. MUSKIE, MAINE, EX OFFICIO

MEMORANDUM TO: Daniel K. Inouye, Chairman

FROM: Nordy Hoffmann

SUBJECT: COPE Leadership Conferences Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont May 26-27-28, 1969

NEW JERSEY - Loss in 1968 due to a less than maximum effort by Labor, and a deterioration of the Party effort. Lack of registration and COPE drive were primary reasons.

The Operating Engineers endorsed Nixon. The State House went Republican due to the Strike Benefit Bill, Busing Bill and the 3% Sales Tax.

We may lose Congressmen Minnish, Helstoski and Thompson because of gerry- mandering. Candidates for Governor are Democrats - Miner, Helstoski, Parsekian, Toute and Kelly. Miner appears to be the hading candidate. He has some Party endorsements, but is having some trouble with Labor.

On the Republican side, the candidates are Sandman (conservative), Congress- men Cahill, McDermott, Sears and Oser. It is a very close race between Sandman and Cahill. Senator Williams' image is greatly improved but all factions must give their absolute support in order to win. His publicity, since January 1, has been excellent.

NEW YORK - New York State leaders fail to cooperate. Must work through the central bodies. COPE has endorsed Wagner for Mayor in New York.

Discussion of marginal Congressional Districts by Howard Samuels. Discussion of marginal Assembly Districts by Pooch Maile.

Registration for 1969 funds are available. . . about $500,000. Prepare a budget for your needs and a program for general registration with a view toward the marginal areas. COPE puts up $2.00 for every $1.00 from your area. The Senatorial race was deferred until after the Mayorality race.

'33 COPE LEADERSHIP CONFERENCES -2- MAY 26-27-28, 1969 continued

Senator Kennedy - Parise of Al Barkan for his work. Difficult times in the country, War in Vietnam, Underhanded programs, and inequities in the Tax system resented by working people. Programs passed by Congress are underfinanced because of the drain of the war in Vietnam. Tax reform is a must - close loopholes. We are not coming to grip with the loophole problem.

No rrom in this country for undernourished people. There are farm sub- sidies for not growing crops and yet people in our country are hungry. Democrats are fighting to reform Tax, Draft and Education. Young people should be treated equally.

Republicans have eight million dollars for House and Senate.

Kennedy met last night with Senator Muskie and Humphrey to work out Party problems.

VERMONT - Generally agreed in 1968. No Democratic Party operation. Labor put on the only drive in Vermont.

Phil Hoff was no help in the election. Francis Esposito is the new Demo- cratic leader in Vermont, and for the first time, they have a full time man working for the Democratic Party. Hoff will definitely run against Prouty for the Senate.

Prouty is a weak candidate, and never returns to the State. Vermont people are not aware of Prouty’s problem but recognize Hoff has a problem. However, Hoff can win. Republican Governor passing a Sales Tax. Congressman Stafford will not contest Prouty if he stands for re-election. Prouty has spent very little time in the State.

Hoff's personal problems have been solved and he can win. The Republicans are plagued with the Governor, as he is proposing a Sales Tax. He will be opposed for re-election by one of the following Democrats: Tom Solmon, Leo O'Brien, Bob Barden or a man named Cain. Congressional chances are slim for the Democrats against the very popular Republican Stafford. Twenty-five thousand people in Vermont who have incomes of less than $3,000 per year are ready to change back to the Democrats "Programs for Progress". IBM's Watson has taken up residence in Vermont, and may be a Republican candidate for Governor.

MAINE - The Democratic Party is in better shape than ever. Muskie will not have opposition, and it is likely that both Congressmen and Governor will be re- elected.

MASSACHUSETTS - In 1968, we did learn to coordinate all of Labor for the first time. Wallace was an issue in the beginning, and it was reduced to a minimum defection. Busing, Negro question - also on the plus side we involved young people. We must involve young people. We must broaden Labor's base in the Commonwealth. Ted Kennedy was not actively campaigning except on TV. Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee

ROOM 130 SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON. D. C. 20510

TELEPHONE CAPITOL 4-3121 EXT. 2447

MEMORANDUM

5/28/69

TO: Daniel K. Inouye, Chairman

FROM: Nordy Hoffmann

SUBJECT: COPE Leadership Conferences Delaware, , North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. May 21, 22 and 23, 1969-

Delaware - Candidates for the Senate seat so far are Sherman Tribbitt, a liberal small businessman. He is opposed by some members of the Democratic Party because he is too liberal. The Party wants to run Bert Carvel again. Another candidate is young, handsome, Bob Kelly, who worked for Senator Frear. He works for Dupont and labor does not trust him. He has Dupont's backing. Sam Shipley was also mentioned as a possible candidate.

Virginia - The representatives withheld comment on Senator Harry Byrd's race, awaiting the outcome of the Governor's race.

West Virginia - Labor will not support Senator publicly, but frankly feel his seat is safe.

Pennsylvania - Both the Senate and Governor's race will be up in the Keystone State. Senator Scott will be most difficult to beat --he holds greater power in the State House than Governor Schaefer. Many intangibles make it impossible to give a clear picture of either the Senate or Governor's race. Some possible names for either seat are; George Leader, Bill Green, John Dent, Bob Casey and Ernie Klein. It was the consensus of those present that Milt Shapp was a dead horse, though he still has political ambitions.

North Carolina - No Senate Race.

Maryland - Joe Tydings would win against all candidates, but would be in serious trouble against Roger Morton if he decided to run. Mandel is regarded very highly to be elected Governor.

Ohio - They believe Steve Young will run, some labor may not support him. John Glenn has been making talks all over the State for his employer, Royal Crown Cola. He is attempting to get a reading via this method. The other two candidates mentioned were, Mike DeSalle and John J. Duffy. It is assumed that John Gilligan Memorandum continued - 2 -

■will run for the Governorship if the price is right. He wants guarantees of money from labor. Republicans have plenty of money -- but -- leading Ohio Republicans are bitter toward the National Administration's "firing" of Ray Bliss -- And, the Republican State Administration may have to impose a payroll tax to pay for Education and there already is a tax revolt in the State. Finally, Governor Rhode's own personal problems with finances are leaving Republican voters disenchanted.

Senator Muskie spoke to the combined group, about 80 people. He alerted them to the Senate Races and the Dinner, and was lavish with praise for the tremendous job you were doing in almost single handedly raising money for the Dinner and the Committee. Also, Bayard Rustin, representing the H. Philip Randolph Foundation gave a very realistic appraisal of "Black Rage and White Fear". I should like to suggest Bayard Rustin as a speaker at one of our luncheons. He is working closely with COPE to bring the minorities to register and vote. TO: INITIAL

X FYI reply comment & advice see me approval as requested investigate as promised note & return file first name signature

REMARKS:

FROM: DATE: Nordy 4/17/69 EVANS-NOVAK POLITICAL REPORT

WHAT’S HAPPENING . . . WHO’S AHEAD ... IN POLITICS TODAY

1750 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W. • Room 1312 • Washington, D.C. 20006 • 202—298—7850

April 16, 1969 - No. 46

To : Our Subscribers

From: Evans-Novak SPECIAL 1970 SENATE ELECTION PREVIEW

The 1970 Election provides the Republican Party with an excellent op- portunity to return the Senate to near partisan parity for the first time in twelve years. The GOP has an outside chance to capture the Senate for -the first time in sixteen years. The reason for this is that the big Dem- ocratic class of 1958, elected on right-to-work and recession issues and re-elected during the 1964 Goldwater debacle, is up again - this time without an obvious calamity for the GOP looming on the horizon. We shall be reporting on these and other 1970 elections between now and Election Day, 1970, in both our regular Evans-Novak Reports and in Special Reports such as this one. This Report shows that some of the vulnerable Democratic veterans of 1958 are not all that vulnerable after twelve years in the Senate. Therefore, Republican prospects,quite bright in the overall view, are somewhat less brilliant in a seat-by-seat analysis. The contested 1970 Senatorial races (with the incumbent underlined): Alaska; (R): This is a possible GOP loss. Stevens is a liberal who lost to a conservative in a primary last year, but was named to fill out Sen. ’s (D) unexpired term. Stevens could be opposed in a GOP primary by Rep. Howard Pollock, a conservative. The possible Democratic candidate is Nick Begich, who lost to Pollock. Arizona; Paul Fannin (R): A sure second term for Fannin. California; George Murphy (R): Another possible GOP loss. It will soon be too late for Murphy, in good health but hoarse of voice after his 1966 throat surgery, to drop out and make way for HEW Secretary Bob Finch. Rep. John Tunney has a big lead for the Democratic nomination and would be fa- vored over Murphy. Tunney fans are more than a little nervous over a chal- lenge from enormously popular S. I. Hayakawa, Pres. of San Francisco State, but today it seems unlikely that Hayakawa will actually run. Connecticut; Thomas Dodd (D): Censured by the Senate, Dodd is consid- ered a sure loser - if not in the Democratic primary, then in November. The GOP is hoping he will survive the primary. The state's two GOP Congressmen - and Tom Meskill - have the option to run, but many party people feel State Finance Chairman Mac Baldridge would be the best candidate. Delaware; John Williams (R): This grand old guardian of the public purse would be a cinch for re-election if state GOP can change his mind and talk him out of retiring. But he's stubborn, and if he really does retire, it's anybody's guess in a wild scramble for his seat in the swing state. Florida; Spessard Holland (D): It's now better than even money that this old veteran won't run for re-election. If he doesn't, the GOP has a golden opportunity - particularly if Rep. William Cramer sacrifices a sure seat and top seniority on the House Public Works Committee to run. Most

Copyright, 1969, by tile Evans-Novak Political Report Company Issued every other week at $50 a year APR 17 1969 state Democrats are interested in challenging GOP Gov. Claude Kirk. If Holland runs, he would be favored - and Cramer probably would not oppose him. Hawaii; (R): He's the only Republican who wins in this state, and there's no reason to believe he'll lose in 1970. Indiana; (D): A member of the Class of '58, he made lots of intra-party enemies with his anti-LBJ stance in Vietnam. Still he's favored for a third term, though considered beatable. Leading an eager pack of GOP contenders are State Treasurer John Snyder, former U.S. Attorney Don Tabbert (close to Gov. Edgar Whitcomb), Indianapolis Mayor Richard Lugar, and possibly U.S. Assistant Attorney General William Ruckelshaus (who lost to Sen. Birch Bayh last year). All GOP contenders have their weaknesses, but all would have a chance of taking Hartke today. Maine; (D): A landslide. Maryland; Joseph Tydings (D): The only Republican who could give Tydings a good fight is Rep. , the new GOP National Chairman, and even he would be the underdog. Tydings has had trouble with the Regulars and he hurt himself by leading the gun control forces, but he's still pop- ular. Massachusetts; Edward Kennedy (D): The Republicans are hard put to find a victim. Michigan; Philip Hart (D): One of the least vulnerable members of the Class of '58 Hart could be given a tussle by GOP Rep. Don Riegle, who is young, smart and ambitious. We doubt HUD Secretary George Romney will go home to run as once thought possible. Minnesota; Eugene McCarthy (D): Whither McCarthy? Will he run or won’t he? Who knows? If he doesn't run, will. If McCarthy does run, HHH’s friends tell us absolutely positively definitely HHH will not run against him in a Democratic primary. Today Humphrey can beat any Republican in the state. For McCarthy, it would be a toss-up. However, GOP chances are further clouded by a potentially divisive Republican pri- mary contested between Rep. Clark MacGregor and State Attorney General Douglas Head - with the early edge to MacGregor. Mississippi; John Stennis (D): Color him in elected. Missouri; Stuart Symington (D): If he wants another term at age 69, he's got it. And we think he wants to go again. Montana; (D): Another term for the Majority Leader. ; Ronan Hruska (R): NO problems for re-election. Nevada; Howard Cannon (D): This member of the Class of '58 barely squeaked in against , now the Governor, in 1964, and would be the underdog if the can talk Laxalt into running for the Sen- ate instead of getting out of politics. Even against a lesser Republican, Cannon is quite vulnerable. New Jersey; Harrison Williams (D): Despised by Boss Kenney of Hudson County and in bad graces generally, Williams - another Class of '58 - ought to be a sure loser. But he's been campaigning hard lately to mend long- shattered fences, and the Republicans in this state have a long record of kicking away opportunities. Winter book GOP favorite: Rep. Peter Freling- huysen. New Mexico; Joseph Montoya (D): The one Republican who has a good chance of beating Montoya is Gov. David Cargo, and we think he'll take a shot at it. But Right-wing Republicans harass liberal Cargo, and Rep. Ed Foreman, Just elected to Congress last year, could challenge him in the primary. New York; Charles Goodell (R): Appointed to fill Bobby Kennedy's seat, Goodell is by all odds the most vulnerable Republican running. Smelling GOP blood, Just about every Democratic Congressman in the state wants to get into the action - plus Ted Sorensen, Sol Linowitz, Howard Samuels, to name Just a few.. However, Arthur Goldberg holds the front-runner's position and we think he'll keep it. Worse yet, Goodell could be challenged to a GOP primary by Rep. Brownie Reid, who's still sore about being passed over by Gov. Rockefeller in favor of Goodell. But Goodell is a politician of considerable means and today has no place to go but up, so we won't bury him quite yet. North Dakota; (D): This member of the Class of '58 is a bit liberal for his state, but Burdick is an old Republican name in these parts. He's favored as of now but considered beatable. A bunch of relatively unknown Republicans want the chance to try - with Lt. Gov. Richard Larson the current favorite. Ohio; Stephen Young (D): The giant killer of the Class of '58, Young beat John Bricker in '58 and , Jr., in '64 in the two greatest up- sets in modern Ohio politics, but he's up against a third giant this time - Gov. . Rhodes is a prohibitive early favorite (but so were Bricker and Taft). This time Young may have Democratic primary opposition, perhaps from former astronaut John Glenn. Pennsylvania; Hugh Scott (R): GOP fortunes in the state are on the decline, but Scott is personally popular and on the rise after his prestig- ious election as Minority Whip. Several key Democratic legislators in Har- risburg would like a shot at Scott, but the prize may go to maverick Mil- ton Shapp, who spent a bundle campaigning for Governor in 1966 and doesn't want to give up now. Scott is favored in any event. Rhode Island; John Pastore (D): No problems. Tennessee; Albert Gore (D); He's trying to catch up on his fence- mending, and while he's been away the state has been sliding Republican. But the GOP may foul up its good chances since two Republican Congress- men - Bill Brock and Dan Kuykendall - are heading for a collision course in a primary. Efforts to get one to run for the Governorship have been unsuccessful to date. Even so, Gore must be considered very vulnerable. Texas; Ralph Yarborough (D): This tough, old liberal is at an all- time popularity peak. He'll be renominated with ease, and the only Repub- lican with any kind of a chance against him is Rep. George Bush, who could Just take him. Bush is now considering giving up his sure seat and taking _a shot_at Yarborough. We think he will, setting up one of the best Sena- torial battles in the country next year. Utah; Frank Moss (D): One of the most vulnerable members of the Class of '58, he's much too liberal for this conservative state, but he's also superb in providing service for his constituents. So it's the old question of Service versus Ideology. Either of the state's two GOP Congressmen - Larry Burton or Sherman Lloyd - could give Moss a real struggle, but prob- ably no other Republican has the clout. Virginia; Harry Byrd, Jr. (D): In the "new" Virginia, Byrd ought to be vulnerable in either the primary or the general election, but the opposition has been slow in forming. Until it shows itself, Byrd is the favorite. Vermont; Winston Prouty (R): Prouty looks very solid, even if Demo- cratic former-Governor Phil Hoff challenges him. Washington; Henry Jackson (D): What can the Republicans say against the man wanted to be his Secretary of Defense? West Virginia; Robert Byrd (D): Nearly impossible to beat.

This Report is copyrighted and prepared for the confidential information of our clients. Reproduction or quotation without specific permission is prohibited. Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee ROOM 130 SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON. D. C. 20510

TELEPHONE CAPITOL 4-3121 EXT. 2447

MEMORANDUM

TO: ALL DEMOCRATIC SENATORS

FROM: DANIEL K. INOUYE, CHAIRMAN DSCC

SUBJECT: 1970 UNITED STATES SENATORIAL ANALYSIS

I hope that you will take time to read, the

attached.

I believe it merits your attention. 1970 United States Senatorial Analysis

In 1964, 28 Democratic Senators were elected — 25 of these 28

Senators will, be -up for re-election in 1970. (Senator Harris and Bass were elected to two-year terms., and Senator Kennedy was assassinated.)

These , incumbents face an electoral situation vastly different from the one they enjoyed in 1964.

In the 24 contested races of 1964 (Sen. Stennis was unopposed),

Lyndon Johnson carried every state; but in 1968 Hubert Humphrey managed to carry only 10 of these states.

In the Senate, the Republicans have picked up a net of 11 seats, with 7 of the new Republicans coming from these 24 states.

In the House, of Representatives, the Republicans have gained a net of 52 seats, with a net gain of 20 seats from these same states.

The picture with the governors is similar as the Republicans have a net gain of 13 seats nationally.

In the states legislatures, the Republicans have gained about 650 state legislative seats including control of both state houses in 6 of the

24 states. Republicans now dominate 9 of the 24 state legislatures.

The implication of these figures becomes increasingly clear upon detailed examination of the composition of the state legislatures, the pluralities of the candidates, and the voter turnout in the off-year election of 1966.

In 1964, the Democratic Party held 66.8$ of all state legislative seats (upper and lower houses) in the 25 states represented by those Democratic-.

Senators facing re-election in 1970. The Democratic Party controlled 18 of these state legislatures and at least one house in 4 other states as a result of that year’s elections. The Republican Party only controlled the legislatures in three, states. But in 1966, the Democratic percentage of these seats fell from 66.8% to 59.4%. Excluding the South, one can see that Democratic holdings decreased from 59.4% to 51.3%, a bare 1.3% majority. More importantly, in

1966, the Democrats lost control of four state legislatures while the

Republicans gained control of five legislatures, increasing their total to eight. Page 2 -- Senatorial Analysis

In North Dakota, where Senator Burdick is up for re-election,

Democrats controlled the legislature as a result of the 1964 elections with 53.8$ of the seats. In 1966, the Democrats lost control of both houses, and their percentage of the seats dropped to 14.3% of the total. Similarly in Utah, where

Senator Moss is up for re-election, the Democrats lost control of both state houses, and the Democratic percentage of seats slipped from 56.3% to 17.5% as a result of the 1966 elections. This pattern was repeated in Michigan and

Maine where Senators Hart and Muskie will face re-election in 1970-

In 1968, Democrats sustained further losses dropping another 1.9% to an over-all total of 57.3% of the seats, and if the South is again excluded, the present total drops to 50.6%. At this time, the Democrats control only 11 of the 25 legislatures, while the Republicans control 9.

A comparison of the Presidential plurality figures of 1964 and 1968 shows the difficulties facing the 25 incumbent Democrats. In 1964, Lyndon

Johnson carried all but one of these 25 states (Mississippi) with a total plurality of 8.8 million. In 1968, Hubert H. Humphrey carried only 10 of these states, and his plurality was merely 433,000 votes, a decline of over 8.3 million votes, or 95.1%.

The plurality of the 24 contested Democratic Senators was over 7 million in 1964, but in some states the Democratic Senatorial candidate ran far behind President Johnson's winning margin. For example, while President

Johnson carried Nevada by some 23,000 votes, Senator Cannon carried his state by only 48 votes. Similarly, while President Johnson carried Ohio by over

1 million votes, Senator Young carried the state by 17,000 votes. In fact,

President Johnson ran ahead of the Senatorial candidate in all but five of these 24 states. With the further decline in voter support for Hubert Humphrey in 1968, the eventual outcome of the 1970 elections appears that much more foreboding.

One might not feel the Presidential elections accurately reflect the partisan feelings of the electorate, but surely the candidates for the

House of Representatives tend to more accurately reflect partisan interests.

Voter support for the Democratic House candidate has also declined in these states, following a nation-wide pattern. In 1964, Democratic House candidates received in excess of 18 million votes or 58.7% of the total vote in these states. Page 3 -- Senatorial Analysis

In 1966, this fell to 12.7 million votes or 53.4% of the total, a drop of

some 5.3%. In only three states, Nevada, Texas, and Ohio, was any increase

in the Democratic vote noted. In some states, the decline was particularly alarming between a Presidential year and an off-year vote. In Utah, the

Democratic vote percentage declined from 52.9% to 37.2%, a net loss of 15.7%.

The Democratic vote in Rhode Island declined 13.3%. Not only did the Democratic percentage of the Congressional vote drop significantly between 1964 and 1966, but in terms of raw numbers, the Democrats dropped significantly in Senatorial

contests.

Thirteen of these 25 states held Senatorial elections in 1966. The

total vote fell in these states from 16.6 million to 12.5 million, a drop of 25%.

It was the Democratic candidates who suffered from this decline. The Democratic

candidates dropped 4.7 million votes to 5.7 million. By comparison, the

Republican total actually rose by 602,000 votes. The result was a clear loss

to the Democratic Party. While all of these 13 states elected the Democratic

candidate in 1964, 6 ‘of them chose the Democratic candidate in 1966. In fact,

4 of the 5 Republican freshmen Senators elected in 1966 came from these states.

The upcoming elections in 1970 have much more in common in terms of

voter turnout with 1966 than with 1964. On the average, voter turnout in these

25 states declined 13.4% from 65.6% to 52.2%. In Wisconsin, where Senator

Proxmire is up for re-election in 1970, voter turnout declined 22.5% from the

Presidential election to the off-year election. The turnout also declined in

Missouri by an even wider margin — 29.4%, falling from 67.4% to 38%.

In reviewing all of the most reliable sources of statistical analysis,

the task ahead for the 25 Democratic incumbents is an extremely difficult one.

In 1970, these incumbents face three major obstacles:

1. The incumbents will not have the benefit of the coat tails of

a popular incumbent President.

2. The voter turnout drop-off between a Presidential year and off-

year election is about 16%. It has been estimated that three out of four of these

non-voters are Democrats.

3. One of the best barometers of party preference is the percentage

of the seats the Democrats hold in the state legislatures. In the last four

years, this percentage has dropped nearly 10$ in the 25 states covered in this

report. One mast assume the trend is Republican. Page 4 -- Senatorial Analysis

A review of these statistics clearly indicates that our incumbent

Democratic Senators are running against a strong Republican trend with no sign to date that this has bottomed out, or that we now are once again on the up-swing, although hopefully, such will be the case in the 1970 elections.

Although heavily handicapped by lack of the kind of financing which the Republican challengers will enjoy, I do believe that we can take some comfort in the knowledge that in the class of 1958 and 1964 who are now facing re-election, we Democrats have an exceptionally able group of Senators who will run well ahead of any straight party vote. Their years in the Senate have been used effectively to achieve for them the advantages of incumbency.

We must address ourselves to their support in this election with a realistic concern. If we do our part, we have reason for hope that all will be with us in the 92nd Congress and we have a good opportunity of winning several seats now held by the opposition. STATE LEGISLATURES

------'64------'64 '66“ ’"66 ----- '68------Seats held Seats Seats Seats Seats Seats in both both both both both both Houses Houses Houses Houses Houses Houses (Raw #) (%) (Raw #) (%) (Raw #) (%)

i DEMO- DEMO- STATE D R CRATIC D R CRATIC D RD 1 CONNECTICUT 134 196 40.6 142 71 66.7 134 79 62.9

FLORIDA 144 12 92.3 128 37 77.6 109 58 65.3 41 109 INDIANA 113 37 75.3 63 87 42.0 27.3

MAINE 110 75 59.5 65 120 35.13 81 102 44.3

MARYLAND 139 32 81.3 153 32 82.7 152 33 82.2

MASSACHUSETTS 197 82 70.6 194 85 69.5 201 79 71.8 ` MICHIGAN 95 53 64.2 73 75 49.3 75 63 54.3

MINNESOTA 64 138 31.7 64 138 31.7 72 130 35.6

MISSISSIPPI 174 0 100 171 3 98.3 173 99.4

MISSOURI 147 50 74.6 130 67 66.0 132 65 67.0

MONTANA ... 88 62 58.7 70 89 44.02 75 84 47.2

NEVADA 33 20 62.3 32 28 53.3 29 31 48.3

NEW JERSEY 33 48 40.7 60 29 67.41 31 89 25.8

NEW MEXICO 87 22 79.8 71 41 63.4 69 43 61.6

NORTH DAKOTA 85 73 53.8 21 126 14.3 27 120 18.4

OHIO 78 91 46.2 47 85 35.6 47 85 35.6

RHODE ISLAND 106 39 73.1 103 47 68.7 114 36 76.0

TENNESSEE .. 100 32 75.8 84 64.1 69 57.0

TEXAS 188 1 99.47 173 4 97.7 171 10 94.5

UTAH 54 42 56.3 17 80 17.5 291 68 29.9

VIRGINIA 126 14 90 124 15 89.2 120 20 85.7

WASHINGTON 92 56 62.2 73 75 49.3 70 78 47.3

WEST VIRGINIA 118 16 88.1 90 44 67.2 85 49 63.4

WISCONSIN 65 68 48.9 59 74 44.36 58 75 43.6

WYOMING 46 40 53.5 39 52 42.9 29 62 31.9

59.2 2,193 1,631 57.3 TOTALS 1,977 983 66.8 2,246 1,551 PRESIDENTIAL PLUS SENATORIAL PLURALITICO

STATE 64 PRESID- '68 PRESID- DIFFERENCE '64 DIFFERENCE ENTIAL ENTIAL '64 - '68 SENATE '68 PRES. PLURALITY PLURALITY PRES. PLURALITY '64 SENATE

CONNECTICUT 435,000 (D) 67,000 (D) -368,000 354,000 -287,000

FLORIDA 43,000 (D) 166,000 (R) -209,000 435,000 -601,000

INDIANA 260,000 (D) 258,000 (R) -518,000 187,000 -445,000

MAINE 144,000 48,000 (D) - 96,000 126,000 - 78,000

MARYLAND 345,000 17,000 (D) -328,000 276,000 -259,000

MASSACHUSETTS 1,237,000 660,000 (D) -577,000 1,129,000 -469,000

MICHIGAN 1,076,000 238,000 (D) -838,000 900,000 -662,000

MINNESOTA 431,000 186,000 (D) -245,000 325,000 -139,000

MISSISSIPPI

MISSOURI 511,000 14,000 (R) -525,000 590,000 -604,000

MONTANA 51,000 21,000 (R) - 72,000 81,000 -102,000

NEVADA 23,000 15,000 (R) - 38,000 0 - 15,000

NEW JERSEY 904,000 54,000 (R) -958,000 666,000 -720,000

NEW MEXICO 62,000 39,000 (R) -101,000 31,000 - 70,000

NORTH DAKOTA 42,000 41,000 (R) - 83,000 40,000 - 81,000

OHIO 1,027,000 93,000 (R) -1,120,000 17,000 -110,000

RHODE ISLAND 241,000 124,000 (D) -117,000 253,000 -129,000

TENNESSEE 126,000 46,000 (R) -172,000 77,000 - 31,000

TEXAS 705,000 41,000 (D) -664,000 330,000 -289,000

UTAH 38,000 82,000 (R) -120,000 58,000 -140,000

VIRGINIA 77,000 143,000 (R) -220,000 416,000 -559,000

WASHINGTON 309,000 42,000 (D) -267,000 539,000 -497,000

WEST VIRGINIA 284,000 67,000 (D) -217,000 269,000 -202,000

WISCONSIN 412,000 60,000 (R) -472,000 112,000 -172,000

WYOMING 19,000 25,000 (R) - 44,000 11,000 - 36,000

TOTAL 8,802,000 433,000 (D) -8,369,000 7,222,000 -6,689,000

Source: Congressional Quarterly TURNOUT

STATE ‘64 TURNOUT * '66 TURNOUT DIFFERENCE

CONNECTICUT 71.8 58.7 -13.1

FLORIDA 52.7 40.9 -11.8

INDIANA 74.0 58.5 -15.5

MAINE 65.6 55.5 -10.1

MARYLAND 56.0 44.2 -11.8

MASSACHUSETTS 71.3 61.9 - 9.4

MICHIGAN 68.9 52.0 -16.9

MINNESOTA 76.8 64.1 -12.7

MISSISSIPPI 32.9 31.1 - 1.8

MISSOURI . 67.4 38.0 -29.4

MONTANA 69.8 64.8 - 5.0

NEVADA 55.5 51.2 4.3

NEW JERSEY...... 68.6 51.8 -16.8

NEW MEXICO 63.9 51.0 -12.9

NORTH DAKOTA 72.2 56.0 -16.2

OHIO 66.6' 43.9 - - -17.7

RHODE ISLAND 68.7 60.4 - 8.3

TENNESSEE 51.1 38.8 -12.3

TEXAS . 44.4 ... 24.5 -19.9

UTAH 76.9 62.4 -14.5

VIRGINIA 41.0 28.0 ...... -13.0

WASHINGTON 71.5 55.5 -16.0

WEST VIRGINIA 75.2 45.5 -29.7

WISCONSIN 70.8 48.3 -22.5

WYOMING 73.2 64.0 - 9.2

TOTAL AUGUST** 64.3 50.2 -14.0

TOTAL AUGUST IN CONTESRED 65.6 50.9 -14.7 RACCO

* Source: Where Are The Voters?

** All states given equal weight — Senatorial Analysis

SUMMARY

1. Percentage of all state legislative seats (both houses) held by Democrats:

1964 — 66.8% 1966 — 59.2% 1968 - 57.3$

2. Percentage of all state legislative seats (both houses) held by Democrats excluding one-party Southern and Border states:

1964 - 59.49% 1966 - 51.3% 1968 - 50.6%

3. Number of state legislatures both houses of which were controlled by the Democratic Party:

1964 — 18 1966 — 14 1968 -- 11

Number of state legislatures only one house of which was controlled by the Democratic Party:

1964 — 4 1966 — 3 1968 -- 5

Number of state legislatures both houses of which were under Republican Party control:

1964 — 3 1966 --8 1968 — 9

4. Change in percentage of seats held by Democrats from ’64 (Presidential election year) to ’66 (off-year):

All states: 7.6% Excluding South: 8.1$

5. Change in percentage of state legislative seats held by Democrats from 1964 (Presidential year) to 1968 (Presidential year):

All states : 9.5% Excluding South: 8.8$