REPORT 09.07.18 Using Satellite Data to Crack the Great Wall of Secrecy Around ’s Internal Oil Flows

Gabriel Collins, J.D., Baker Botts Fellow in Energy & Environmental Regulatory Affairs, Center for Energy Studies Shih Yu (Elsie) Hung, Research Associate, Center for Energy Studies

China’s heft in the global crude oil market flows and refined product usage in China, exerts profound global effects across the albeit with several months of delay and energy, environmental, and human well- without specifying flow data by location, being dimensions. Yet comprehensive, a potentially critical omission. The Global high-frequency, reliable, and publicly Energy Observatory project offers limited available data on China’s domestic oil flows data on part of China’s oil refinery fleet and and inventory movements are essentially the country’s main oil ports.1 TankerTrackers inaccessible. In particular, for on-the- offers insights into various global seaborne ground primary commercial intelligence oil flows.2 collection, such as that performed by However, the specific oil storage data Genscape and other independent analytical and other information that would improve companies in the U.S. market, China’s oil analysts’ ability to ascertain flow patterns sector is effectively a “denied area.” within China are not disclosed by the Chinese This is not because the data themselves government in a regular and comprehensive We propose creating do not exist or aren’t being collected. fashion, leaving analysts to try and piece a forum to more Rather, it is a challenge at its core rooted in: together numerous missing pieces of a very systematically collect 1. the Chinese government’s obsession large and complex oil puzzle. In response to and analyze satellite this globally important omission, we propose with secrecy and maximum control of data capable of information; and creating a forum to more systematically collect and analyze satellite data capable of shedding more light on 2. data costs. The prime purveyors of shedding more light on the inner workings of the inner workings of insights derived from satellite imagery China’s oil sector. Such imagery can be fused are generally startups that must first China’s oil sector. with other data sources and cross-analyzed, answer to investors seeking returns and with the aim of yielding a level of insight are thus often economically constrained into China’s oil inventory and flow dynamics from sharing data at a price point low that would be exponentially deeper than the enough to allow large-scale analysis current general state of knowledge. of China’s energy sector by academic An open-source forum of academic, parties and various NGOs. think , and government participants would present an ideal channel for Many of the puzzle pieces already exist aggregating and analyzing the data in a for high-quality public domain analysis of systematic and useful manner. It could oil sector flows in China. For instance, the leverage and build upon the formidable Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) existing experience of the US Energy publishes monthly data for estimated oil Information Administration (EIA) and the BAKER INSTITUTE REPORT // 09.07.18

International Energy Agency (IEA), both volumes, which account for two-thirds of of which already closely track oil sector its total crude supply, can shift significantly activity in China as part of their analytical month-to-month. mandates. Neither entity has a proprietary Better data transparency would interest in the oil markets, which enhances benefit oil producers and consumers both Better data their ability to cooperate with academic within and outside of China. For example, transparency would and other participants whose core interests OPEC producers seeking to achieve a benefit oil producers often center on publishing both analysis certain price range, US shale producers and the underlying data themselves. The contemplating hedging programs, and and consumers both discussion below outlines how such an China-based refiners all would benefit from within and outside approach adds value to analysis of global broader data transparency. Investment of China. flows and also explores the potential costs decisions—especially in a market as large and execution challenges that would need to and complicated as the global oil market— be overcome. are never made with a truly “complete” set of information. That being said, relative improvements to information availability SATELLITE DATA CAN HELP from one of the market’s most important SURMOUNT THE “GREAT WALL participants can have broad positive effects. OF SECRECY” More granular and complete Chinese oil data would help better inform oil producers and Making high-quality satellite imagery processors as to happenings in a marketplace available to the broader global energy that now accounts for roughly 1 out of every research community can help crack open 8 barrels of oil used globally. In turn, this the “Great Wall of Secrecy” and improve would likely have a stabilizing impact on data transparency and insights into the inner crude oil pricing through improved signals to workings of the world’s second-largest crude the market. Both producers and consumers oil market. would ultimately benefit over the long-run. To illustrate the problem at hand, In this respect, improved data availability consider that data reported by Xinhua— also harmonizes well with ’s current China’s sole officially sanctioned oil inventory political priorities. The costs of oil price data source—only track oil stored in spikes arising from the market’s reaction to “commercial .”3 Satellite data from “surprises” in supply and demand fall heavily Even if data gatherers Orbital Insight raise serious doubts about how on Chinese consumers, given the country’s thorough—and thus useful to the market— on the ground in China rising import dependence. Making available this Xinhua data really is. For instance, at can be constrained more regular, accurate, and granular data times in mid- to late 2017, Orbital Insight’s from the world’s second-largest oil consumer by the risk of severe data suggested total crude oil stockpiles and seventh-largest producer stands to physical penalties, in China were more than three times as reduce the frequency and magnitude of such large as the figures reported by Xinhua—a Chinese officials can surprise-driven price volatility.5 potential discrepancy of more than 500 do little to prevent Additionally, China would like to establish million barrels.4 That is enough oil to fill remote sensors in space a local oil trading hub to help bring price more than 250 very large crude carriers (i.e., discovery closer to home. But without better from gathering data on “supertankers”). Furthermore, the Xinhua data transparency, it will be tough to reach energy sector activities. data stream shows relatively little variability liquidity levels sufficient to pull traders away in storage volumes over time. One would from established hubs in New York, London, expect inventory to be the mechanism and Singapore. through which the country’s oil sector balances these shifts, with commensurately large monthly storage movements, such as WHY EMPHASIZE SATELLITE DATA? those that periodically appear in satellite- derived storage data. Thus, the unusually Researchers can now access earth stable Xinhua inventory data trend line raises observation data from satellites that even questions, given that China’s oil import 10 years ago were basically only available to 2 USING SATELLITE DATA TO CRACK THE GREAT WALL OF SECRECY AROUND CHINA’S INTERNAL OIL FLOWS

government agencies and a few specialized activities. Such increased data access offers and well-funded corporate actors. real value across the policymaking and Accordingly, China’s draconian restrictions commercial spectrums, as imagery and on detailed oil-sector data collection are derived data become a critical resource for becoming increasingly untenable. Now, tracking oil inventory changes and flow a single rocket launch can place a flock patterns within China. of 88 privately owned earth observation Even for highly motivated, deep- microsatellites in orbit.6 And to boot, these pocketed commercial parties such as “eyes in the sky” are becoming sharper. oil traders and hedge funds, access to Beijing cannot control Computer vision has advanced to the point reliable high-frequency China oil data at a access to such satellite that machines can deduce oil inventory provincewide and nationwide scale is often levels by analyzing the movements of constrained. The restraints on data availability information unless floating oil storage tank roofs over time. are even more acute for the academic, it wishes to launch They can also locate drilling locations in governmental, and policy communities an extraterritorial places as remote as South Sudan, and even outside of (and within) China, whose insights campaign against identify individual frac water storage pits.7 and contributions will be crucial to developing Satellites passing repeatedly over the solutions to China-centric energy challenges satellite image same area can provide a time-lapse image with global impacts. providers and their series that can help identify the construction There is a nearly decade-long history of employees/investors— of roads and pipelines, well completions, non-governmental organizations leveraging which it would drilling rig movement, and other important satellite data to help improve policymaking have no legitimate, energy-related activities. on issues with profound regional, and in some Assessing changes over time allows cases, global, consequences. For instance, internationally analysts to zoom in on patterns of activity— the Satellite Sentinel Project, founded in 2010 recognized legal basis for instance, how much time elapsed by actor and philanthropist George Clooney to do—or decides to between the first appearance of a dirt and human rights activist John Prendergast, physically shield energy drilling pad and the presence of a drilling has utilized imagery from DigitalGlobe to rig or final production equipment, etc. help detect evidence of mass violence sector infrastructure Fusing this type of primary and derivative in Sudan and South Sudan.8 Likewise, from satellite view. information with other data sets can allow Global Forest Watch has used space-based analysts to glean deep insights into both imaging since 2014 to monitor deforestation company-level operational patterns and and other actions “in near real-time.”9 macro-level activity. China’s oil sector merits similar attention, Furthermore, Beijing cannot control given the current lack of comprehensive access to such satellite information unless it data disclosure and the reality that what wishes to launch an extraterritorial campaign happens in China’s domestic oil space often against satellite image providers and their reverberates globally. employees/investors—which it would have no legitimate, internationally recognized legal basis to do—or decides to physically HOW WOULD THE SATELLITE DATA BE shield energy sector infrastructure from UTILIZED? satellite view. Such an approach might work First and foremost, satellite data showing for concealing selected high-value military oil inventory changes would help fill in assets, but it is almost certainly cost- currently massive gaps in the publicly prohibitive in the case of production fields, available data on changes in crude oil tank farms, refineries, and pipeline networks storage levels in China. Coverage gaps arise spanning one of the largest countries in the from at least two core factors. The first is world by land area. raw availability—i.e., as noted earlier in Even if data gatherers on the ground the analysis, official Chinese government in China can be constrained by the risk of statistics are incomplete. The second factor severe physical penalties, Chinese officials is timing—in other words, the National can do little to prevent remote sensors in Bureau of Statistics of China discloses oil space from gathering data on energy sector 3 BAKER INSTITUTE REPORT // 09.07.18

FIGURE 1 — SATELLITE IMAGERY OF OIL ACTIVITY IN CHINA, SOUTH SUDAN, AND WEST TEXAS

Well pad in active production near Chongqing, China Frac spread in Loving County, Texas

Time-lapse images of oil drilling in South Sudan

Drilling rig on location

NOTES These activities display strong visual signatures susceptible to analysis via computer vision—no matter where in the world you’re operating. SOURCES DigitalGlobe, Google Earth

storage data on an episodic and irregular • tracking refinery, petrochemical plant, basis, making it only marginally useful and pipeline pump station activity levels to analytical teams tracking a dynamic via infrared imagery;12 global crude oil market in which China is • expanding existing data sets on refinery an important participant.10 Indeed, each of runs and production of gasoline, diesel the last three official strategic petroleum fuel, and other refined products; and reserve (SPR) storage volume disclosures • calculating vehicle densities and by China’s National Bureau of Statistics flow patterns on roads in major came more than six months after the report gasoline consumption centers and preceding it—an eternity in oil market highway corridors. terms.11 Satellite data could also be fused with a broad range of other data points showing TO WHAT EXTENT COULD SATELLITE oil storage activities, including but not OBSERVATION OF CHINA’S OIL AND limited to: GAS SECTOR BE VULNERABLE TO • monitoring oil tanker traffic into “SPOOFING”? Chinese ports; If China’s government is indeed committed • analyzing drilling locations to gain to the idea that a substantial portion of insights into domestic oil and gas the country’s oil and gas sector data be production trends; protected as state secrets, this raises the • surveying new pipeline construction in question of to what extent Beijing might order to track infrastructure buildout work to make satellite observation of its and identify the path of infrastructure energy industry more difficult. Large-scale that might otherwise be hidden behind deception has historically fallen primarily state secrets laws; 4 USING SATELLITE DATA TO CRACK THE GREAT WALL OF SECRECY AROUND CHINA’S INTERNAL OIL FLOWS

within the military domain. Consider the FIGURE 2 — CHINA’S OIL DATA SECRECY BECOMING UNTENABLE IN army of decoys “commanded” by General THE SATELLITE AGE George Patton to convince Hitler that the Allies would invade near Calais, rather than at Normandy.13 Accordingly, multiple interesting questions arise as to whether the Chinese government would consider deploying large- scale countermeasures to foil satellite data collection. This would involve significant capability and cost dimensions. There might also be legal ramifications if countermeasures taken by firms like CNPC or Sinopec, who have publicly traded subsidiaries, led satellite intelligence firms to inadvertently report incorrect data that misled shareholders. On the capability front, oil storage tracking that relies on assessing the shadows cast by floating tank roofs might be spoofed by painting those roofs in patterns that disrupt algorithmic analysis.14 Other types of earth observation platforms that use synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and can measure actual movement could defeat spoofing measures aimed at countering shadow-based visual observation. For instance, Finnish company ICEYE has launched the world’s first microsatellite to provide SAR imaging, offering 10-meter SOURCE Illustration courtesy of Hannah Dean resolution at a price of “lower than $1 per square kilometer.”15 Value-add analytical services—including So how much might China’s oil some that offer energy sector-focused companies have to potentially spend to products such as Ursa Space Systems—are hinder satellite data collection, and how also working to commercialize growing SAR would that intersect with their commercial data sets.16 Over the past several years, and fiscal realities? the cost of visible satellite imagery has Fixed-roof tanks can cost between fallen significantly while the output has 10 and 20 percent more than comparable simultaneously increased in quality. If the floating roof tanks.17 A leading tank roof same trends unfold in the SAR space, such vendor indicated that adding an aluminum imagery is likely to become a more widely geodesic dome roof to a 300-foot diameter used analytical feedstock for commercial crude oil storage tank would likely cost and academic actors alike. between $1 million and $1.2 million per But even radar-based observation tank.18 In practical terms, this means that has limits. Future oil storage facilities in the price tag to conceal the floating roofs of China might either be built underground or the 52 tanks at the original Zhoushan SPR designed to use fixed-roof tanks that are site near alone could approach $60 impervious to analytical methods predicated million. The facility, which came fully online on measuring tank level movements. in June 2007, originally cost approximately If China decided to make its oil storage $50 million to build.19 facilities less visible from space, it would The costs of installing fixed-roof have a number of options at its disposal, at tanks nationwide could easily climb into a range of price points. the billions of dollars, especially because 5 BAKER INSTITUTE REPORT // 09.07.18

the scale of demand in China for such rainwater accumulations atop tank services under such a scenario would roofs); and likely overwhelm the global vendor pool. 2. more storage—especially at SPR High costs could in turn forestall broad sites—will be built in underground adoption of fixed roofs by China’s oil and gas mined caverns. industry, a commodity-based business in which cost control is immensely important, To date, China has completed at least one state-controlled enterprises must still subterranean SPR site and has several more generally strive to maintain a high degree of under construction.20 Oil storage operators commercial competitiveness, and the sheer in the country have strong incentives to go scale of the energy system could make underground from both physical security spoofing measures too costly to broadly and economic perspectives. Data from deploy. Accordingly, we would be surprised sources in South Korea suggest that mined if companies would accept the burden of caverns for underground crude oil storage significant retrofit costs without large state can be built for more than 60% less—per subsidies and/or serious political pressure. barrel of capacity—than above-ground That said, the more likely outcomes moving tanks.21 Yet the substantial sums of capital forward could be that: China’s oil storage providers have sunk into 1. an increasing proportion of new oil floating roof tanks, often designed with storage tanks in China will be built multi-decade service lives, means they with fixed roofs that hinder visual and will likely be very reluctant to prematurely radar-based remote analysis (with the phase out such infrastructure unless forced beneficial side effect of eliminating to by government mandate. Accordingly, a material portion of China’s oil storage capacity likely will remain susceptible to space surveillance for many years to come. FIGURE 3 — POTENTIAL ANNUAL COSTS OF OBTAINING SATELLITE DATA OF KEY OIL STORAGE POINTS IN CHINA HOW MUCH MIGHT THIS SATELLITE DATA COST? Surface area Satellite data acquisition costs are a huge Known China oil refineries in data set 193 concern, particularly for budget-constrained Known China oil storage depots in data set 278 academic and public policy researchers. Total surface area of satellite view to observe (km2) 76,228 Below, we price out two fundamental pathways: (1) the acquisition of “refined” China oil sector data directly from an Imagery costs “analytics as a service” vendor, and (2) Initial basemap acquisition Free the acquisition of “raw” satellite imagery Monthly high-resolution tasking @ $5/km2 $4,573,680 that consortium members could then run through their own analytical processes. Monthly medium-resolution tasking @ $2/km2 $1,829,472 Each path has its pros and cons. The biggest pro for acquiring already processed, Total estimated annual cost Monthly updates Quarterly updates ready-to-use data is that the project could launch very rapidly. Conversely, this High resolution images $4,573,680 $1,143,420 benefit illustrates its corollary. Namely, Medium resolution images $1,829,472 $457,368 a core challenge of the bootstrap, raw imagery approach is the significant upfront

NOTES Total surface area calculation assumes a 5 km buffer around each storage facility and a 10 fixed cost of time and human brain energy necessary to acquire dedicated computing km buffer for each refinery, with the overlapping area dissolved. infrastructure and devise algorithms for SOURCES Bloomberg, China Petroleum Map 2012, LandInfo, authors’ analysis image analysis, among other steps.

6 USING SATELLITE DATA TO CRACK THE GREAT WALL OF SECRECY AROUND CHINA’S INTERNAL OIL FLOWS

Another fundamental challenge stems to establish a comprehensive China oil from the fact that “analysis as a service” infrastructure database.24 vendors might be wary of providing much 3. Creating separate shapefile layers in data to a forum whose core goal is to QGIS for the refineries and oil storage provide regularly updated, detailed China facilities (Figure 4). oil data to the broader public for a nominal 4. Dissolving the layers and running cost, or perhaps even free of charge. High- a buffer analysis for each one paying commercial customers might balk at to determine how many square such broad data publication even if a time kilometers of surface area would need embargo was placed on the forum’s ability to be covered by satellite imagery to use the data in open-access applications. in order to capture the oil storage Data independence concerns might infrastructure associated with a point ultimately make the bootstrap approach the in the shapefile (typically intended best aligned with the venture’s overall goals. to lie at the centermost part of any Some very rough cost estimates suggest given point). The buffer for refineries that an academic venture to seriously was 10 km from the center point and assess China’s oil sector on a monthly basis 5 km from oil storage facilities. There could be prohibitively expensive at present, was some overlap between facilities in A simple model even assuming that imagery vendors gave certain cases that constitute a small participants a 50% discount from posted subset of the total sample, but the suggests that commercial satellite imagery rates (which dissolve function counteracts the risk obtaining monthly some vendors, such as Airbus, are willing that a given piece of surface area could 22 high-resolution satellite to provide). A simple model suggests that be “double counted.” obtaining monthly high-resolution satellite views of China’s key oil 5. Adding up the total area from the views of China’s key oil storage infrastructure storage infrastructure respective layers (76,228 km2) and points (refineries and stand-alone crude oil multiplying it by $5 per km2 for high- points (refineries and and refined product tank terminals) could resolution imagery and $2 per km2 stand-alone crude oil cost roughly $4.5 million per year, or about for medium-resolution imagery to $1.1 million per year if monitoring were done and refined product obtain the cost of a single satellite quarterly (Figure 3). Note that expanding the tank terminals) could “run” covering the area of interest. area of image capture to include drilling sites These numbers were based on a cost roughly $4.5 would significantly increase the costs from satellite imagery pricing list provided by million per year, or the levels shown in Figure 3. The cost levels LandInfo, which notes that at least one indicated in these simple models suggest about $1.1 million per of its imagery providers grants discounts that the participation of the EIA and IEA, and year if monitoring of up to 50% for academic users.25 their well-funded data acquisition programs, were done quarterly. might be instrumental to the success of a 6. Multiplying the per run costs by 12 to venture aimed at using satellite data to create derive the annual cost of performing a “shadow EIA” for China’s energy sector. monthly observations and by four to The cost estimates in Figure 3 were derive the annual cost of quarterly derived by: observations. Our model assumes that the initial “basemap” imagery can be 1. Compiling a detailed list of all of the oil obtained through archival imagery from refineries in China available through NASA, the European Space Agency, and the Bloomberg Professional Service, as other openly accessible data sources. well as a list of oil storage infrastructure assets obtained via China Petroleum Given these high costs, partnering with 23 Map 2012. satellite owners to obtain even more highly 2. Following up the initial compilation discounted (or possibly free) imagery would with a deep online search in Chinese be an enormously helpful financial catalyst for facility level data—such as capacity, for this proposed China oil forum project. operator, and coordinates—as well as At least one possible model currently additional refinery and oil storage assets exists. Satellite imaging company Planet 7 BAKER INSTITUTE REPORT // 09.07.18

FIGURE 4 — KEY CHINA OIL INFRASTRUCTURE

NOTE Data current as of June 2018 SOURCE Authors' elaboration

has established a program to provide license would allow those areas of interest limited amounts of imagery to academic to be covered daily, with substantial spare researchers, with a free “Basic” license bandwidth left over. Since the end products conferring the right to download 120,000 would be used for academic research—not km2 of imagery per year, an “Investigator” sold—such use would comply with Planet’s license allowing 50 million km2 per year at permitted usage parameters. a rate “priced competitively for academic researchers,” and an “Institutional” license providing access to one billion km2 per year, CONCLUSION for an unspecified rate.26 Note that this is Ultimately, we hope that creating raw imagery and that the person or entity detailed, reliable, and publicly available obtaining it must build their own analytical models of China’s internal oil flows can capabilities to process the information into provide insights that improve energy systematically useful data sets. and environmental policymaking at a To put those numbers in an oil analyst global level—including work by Chinese perspective, the “Basic” license would scholars who would have access to a allow a researcher to cover all of China’s oil broad and deep level of data disclosure refineries and main storage tank facilities previously unavailable to them. Perhaps once per year, while an “Investigator” greater transparency created by external 8 USING SATELLITE DATA TO CRACK THE GREAT WALL OF SECRECY AROUND CHINA’S INTERNAL OIL FLOWS

governmental, NGO, and academic 8. Satellite Sentinel Project, “Our Story,” researchers will eventually stimulate the http://www.satsentinel.org/our-story Chinese government to improve its own oil (accessed August 13, 2018). sector data disclosures. Only time will tell, 9. Global Forest Watch, “About,” but the research potential of the satellite- https://www.globalforestwatch.org/about based, open source China oil data concept (accessed August 13, 2018). is substantial. Analytical dividends could 10. See, for instance: “China’s SPR flow for years from investment in the Is Being Built and Achieving Significant project by government agencies, academic Progress,” (国家石油储备建设取得重要进 institutions, and private philanthropists 展), National Bureau of Statistics, December interested in China-focused energy and 29, 2018, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ environmental issues. zxfb/201712/t20171229_1568313.html. 11. Copies of SPR volume disclosures on file with the authors. ENDNOTES 12. “SWIR Imagery,” DigitalGlobe, https://www.digitalglobe.com/products/ 1. See http://globalenergyobservatory. swir-imagery. org/index.php (accessed June 1, 2018). 13. Christopher Klein, “Fooling Hitler: The We hope that creating 2. See http://tankertrackers.com/#/. Elaborate Ruse Behind D-Day,” The History 3. Zheping Huang, “Doubtful of China’s detailed, reliable, Channel, June 3, 2014, https://www.history. economic numbers? Satellite data and and publicly available com/news/fooling-hitler-the-elaborate- AI can help,” Quartz, April 16, 2018, models of China’s ruse-behind-d-day. https://qz.com/1251912/doubtful-of- 14. See, for instance, work by artist internal oil flows chinas-economic-numbers-satellite-data- Adam Harvey, who has developed makeup can provide insights and-ai-can-help/. patterns and designs that fool many 4. Ibid. that improve energy sophisticated facial recognition algorithms, 5. Energy Information Administration, and environmental https://cvdazzle.com/. For broader “What countries are the top producers and discussion of spoofing concepts, see Geoff policymaking at a consumers of oil?” https://www.eia.gov/ Manaugh, “Subverting Our New Space global level—including tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&t=6. Overlords,” The Atlantic, June 9, 2016, 6. Robbie Schingler, “Planet Launches work by Chinese https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/ Satellite Constellation To Image The Whole scholars who would archive/2016/06/duping-the-satellite- Planet Daily,” Planet Labs, February 14, 2017, and-other-adventures-in-landscape- have access to a broad https://www.planet.com/pulse/planet- recognition/485921/. and deep level of data launches-satellite-constellation-to-image- 15. Debra Werner, “Q&A | ICEYE the-whole-planet-daily/. disclosure previously achieves the ‘impossible’ with miniature 7. “Orbital Insight Measures China Oil unavailable to them. radar satellite,” SpaceNews, May 22, Supply With Satellite Imagery Analysis,” 2018, https://spacenews.com/qa-iceye- Orbital Insight, September 29, 2016, achieves-the-impossible-with-miniature- http://www.marketwired.com/press- radar-satellite/. release/orbital-insight-measures-china- 16. See https://www.ursaspace.com/ oil-supply-with-satellite-imagery- products (accessed May 31, 2018); and Derek analysis-2162562.htm; Josef Palenka and Edinger, “Small Sats + Big Data Analytics = Marcus Waldner, “What is the Value in Insights on Chinese Economy” (presentation Pictures from Space? NPR Planet Money at the AIAA/USU Conference on Small Rockets into Genscape HQ to Find Out!” Satellites, Logan, Utah, August 5-10, Genscape, December 19, 2017, https://www. 2017), https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/ genscape.com/blog/what-value-pictures- smallsat/2017/all2017/148/. space-npr-planet-money-rockets- 17. Jordan Blum, “Failures of floating- genscape-hq-find-out; “Frac Pit Finder,” roof oil tanks during Harvey raise SourceWater, https://www.sourcewater. concerns,” Houston Chronicle, October com/blog/fracpitfinder?leadSourceId=73 11, 2017, https://www.houstonchronicle. (accessed May 30, 2018). 9 BAKER INSTITUTE REPORT // 09.07.18

com/business/energy/article/Failures- AUTHORS of-floating-roof-tanks-during- Harvey-12269513.php. Gabriel Collins, J.D., is the Baker Botts Fellow 18. Conversation with vendor, May 31, in Energy & Environmental Regulatory 2018. Affairs at the Baker Institute Center for 19. Gabriel Collins, “China fills first SPR site, Energy Studies. He was previously an faces oil, pipeline issues,” Oil & Gas Journal, associate attorney at Baker Hostetler, August 20, 2007, https://www.ogj.com/ LLP, and is the co-founder of the China articles/print/volume-105/issue-31/general- SignPost™ analysis portal. Collins has interest/china-fills-first-spr-site-faces-oil- worked in the Department of Defense as a pipeline-issues.html. (370 million RMB original China analyst and as a private sector global cost ÷ 7.6 RMB/USD contemporary exchange commodity researcher, authoring more than rate = USD $49 million) 100 commodity analysis reports, both for 20. Meng Meng and Chen Aizhu, “China private clients and for publication. goes underground to expand its strategic oil reserves,” Reuters, January 6, 2016, https:// Shih Yu (Elsie) Hung, is a research associate www.reuters.com/article/us-china-oil- in the Center for Energy Studies at Rice reserves-idUSKBN0UK2NO20160106. University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. 21. Eui-Seob Park and So-Keul Her research interests include electricity, Chung, “Experience and challenge of electricity market deregulation, and energy underground oil/gas storage caverns and environment. in Korea,” Geosystem Engineering 17, no. 5 (2014): 294-302, DOI: 10.1080/12269328.2014.988300. The authors calculate construction costs of See more Baker Institute Reports at: $0.65/bbl of crude oil for aboveground tanks www.bakerinstitute.org/baker-reports vs. $0.24/bbl for mined caverns. 22. See, for instance: “Buying Satellite This publication was written by a Imagery: Pricing Information for High researcher (or researchers) who Resolution Satellite Imagery,” LandInfo, participated in a Baker Institute project. Wherever feasible, this research is http://www.landinfo.com/satellite-imagery- reviewed by outside experts before it is pricing.html (accessed July 12, 2018). released. However, the views expressed 23. See http://www.chinagasmap.com/ herein are those of the individual aboutthismap/chinapetroleummap.htm. author(s), and do not necessarily 24. Data were predominantly extracted represent the views of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. from the press releases of state-owned oil companies, i.e., Sinopec, PetroChina, and © 2018 Rice University’s Baker Institute CNOOC. Other data sources include but not for Public Policy limited to: INFOPETRO (http://www.info petro.com.cn/), 百度百科 (https://baike. This material may be quoted or baidu.com/), 互動百科 (http://www.baike. reproduced without prior permission, provided appropriate credit is given to com/), and individual refining/storage the author and Rice University’s Baker companies’ websites. Institute for Public Policy. 25. “Buying Satellite Imagery: Pricing Information for High Resolution Satellite Cite as: Imagery,” LandInfo Worldwide Mapping, LLC, Collins, Gabriel, and Elsie Hung. 2018. Using Satellite Data to Crack the http://www.landinfo.com/satellite-imagery- Great Wall of Secrecy Around China’s pricing.html (accessed June 1, 2018). Internal Oil Flows. Baker Institute Report no. 09.07.18. Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, Houston, Texas.

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