UZBEKISTAN ’ S ACCESSION TO THE EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION: ANOTHER STEP IN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION OR RUSSIAN POLITICAL PRESSURE?
Jasur Salomov
EUCACIS in Brief
No. 11 March 2020
PhD Support Programme The EU, Central Asia and the Caucasus in the International System About EUCACIS “The EU, Central Asia and the Caucasus in the International System” (EUCACIS) is a PhD Support Programme for Postgraduates and Doctoral Researchers in Central Asia and the Southern Caucasus, organized by the Institut für Europäische Politik (IEP) and the Centre international de formation européenne (CIFE). Funded by the Volkswagen Foundation and the programme Erasmus+, it offers scholarships for three years to excellent postgraduates who are working on a doctoral thesis in political science, contemporary history or economics on a topic related to its thematic focus at a university or academy of sciences in the Southern Caucasus or Central Asia (including Afghanistan, the Kashmir region in India and the autonomous region Xinjiang in China). It is the objective of the EUCACIS programme to provide EUCACIS.eu intensive PhD research training for its participants to bring them closer to international standards, to support them until they submit their doctoral theses, and to help them establish their own networks with other young researchers in the target regions and in Europe. This will be achieved through four international conferences, four PhD schools, two research training stays and continuous online coaching.
About IEP Since 1959, the Institut für Europäische Politik (IEP) has been active in the field of European integration as a non-profit organisation. It is one of Germany’s leading research institutes on foreign and European policy. IEP works at the interface of academia, politics, administration, and civic education. In doing so, IEP’s task include scientific analyses of problems surrounding European politics and integration. www.iep-berlin.de
About CIFE The Centre international de formation européenne (CIFE) is a private institution of higher education and research, founded in 1954 with its head office in Nice and branch offices in Berlin, Brussels and Istanbul. It receives special funding in the framework of the Jean Monnet Programme of the European Union. Students from all continents enroll in its programmes and work as senior officials, consultants and academic experts after graduation. www.cife.eu
About the Series EUCACIS Online Paper comprise research and policy papers on topics related to the thematic focus of the programme, written by fellows of the EUCACIS PhD Support Programme and members of the wider EUCACIS network. It aims at making the debates within the network, notably during the EUCACIS conferences and PhD schools, accessible to a wider public. The papers are available on the programme website: www.eucacis.eu About the Author Jasur Salomov is a junior research fellow at the Institute of History of the Academy of Sciences of Uzbekistan. He obtained his master’s degree in International Law from the University of World Economy and Diplomacy in Tashkent. In his research he focuses on transition processes in post- Soviet countries, the formation and development of political systems in Central Asian states, and participation of the international organizations in providing regional security in Central Asia. Jasur is a EUCACIS PhD fellow since 2016.
Editorial team
Publishers: Prof. Dr Mathias Jopp, Head of International Programmes, IEP PD Dr Matthias Waechter, Director General, CIFE
Editors: Salome Minesashvili, Project Assistant, CIFE Laila Allemand, Project Manager/Research Associate, IEP
Layout: Dimitar Keranov, IEP
Place of publication: Berlin
ISSN: 2627-7190
Internet: www.eucacis.eu
Email: [email protected]
Hashtag: #EUCACIS
published in March 2020 4 EUCACIS Policy Brief No. 11 - Uzbekistan`s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union: another step in economic integration or Russian political pressure? January 2020) from-its-national-interests-sodiq-safoev whether-to-join-the-eaeu-uzbekistan-will-proceed- tashkenttimes.uz/national/4414-when-deciding- national interests Safoev. -Sodiq Available at: to join EAEUUzbekistan the proceed from will its 3 (Accessed: 8January 2020) will-uzbekistan-join-the-eurasian-economic-union/ at: Uzbekistan Join Eurasian the Economic Union? Available 2 January 2020) at: under consideration, says Russian Available speaker 1 is aninviolableright”. interests. Forus,thepriorityofnationalinterests including the EAEU,isUzbekistan’s national of studying the issue of joining any organization, diplomatically declared that “the main leitmotif the organization.Thus,senatorSodiq Safoev only instructed tostudy the currentcapacityof that no decision had yet been made, but one was Uzbek authorities refuted the statement, noting by RussianMinisterofFinanceAntonSiluanov at aseniorlevel,within a workinggroupheaded Uzbekistan, but bilaterally with Russian politicians EAEU is debated not only within the government of revealed thatapossible Uzbek membership tothe Union is under consideration” of Uzbekistan’s joining the EurasianEconomic president has made adecision, currently the issue to Tashkent in October 2019, she noted, “[the] sudden interest inthistopic.During her visit Council Speaker (upperhouse),sparkedthe Valentina Matviyenko, the Russian Federation Economic Union (EAEU). Astatementmadeby issue of Uzbekistan’s accession to the Eurasian in Uzbekistan and throughout the regionwas organizations. space and many international and regional relations withthecountriesofpost-Soviet this activity in terms of restoring and intensifying and foreign policies. Particularlynoticeableis a period of ‘reformatting’ of both, its domestic Introduction https://thediplomat.com/2019/10/not-so-fast- https://tass.com/economy/1080900 The most debated topic in recent months Since 2016, Uzbekistan isgoingthrough In thefollowing, representatives ofthe Tashkent Times (2019)When deciding whether Hashimova, U. (2019)Not Fast: So Will TASS (2019)Issue of Uzbekistan joining EAEU 3 1 . Thisstatement (Accessed: 7 (Accessed: 10 https://
2 . Uzbekistan’s accession to theEAEU: joining thisorganization. advantages and disadvantages of Uzbekistan development trendoftheEAEU,potential and topromoteRussia’sinterests? activated tomakeUzbekistanjoinunconditionally of the Union’s activities orwill political pressure be certain guaranteesofobservancetheprinciples question is: Will it be a voluntary accession under Uzbekistan on its joining the EAEU. Themain behave innegotiationswiththeleadershipof how aggressively or diplomatically Russia will a lever.In this context,itisinterestingtoobserve Uzbek migrants inRussiacould be usedassuch Particularly, theoftenprecarioussituationof way thatwould harmtheeconomyofUzbekistan? questions. Will Russia useitspoliticalleversina and the current state of affairs raises a number of For example,Belarusregularly accusesRussia tariff methods of regulation and of protectionism. of the functioning of the Union, of using non- EAEU that accuse eachotherof violating the rules disputes between the currentmembersof “Tashkent iscloselyfollowing the constant which is spelled out in the charter documents. goods across the borders of the member states, regarding theguaranteedpromotionoftheir The reasonforthisaretheongoing disputes mention theaccessionofnewstatestoUnion. between the membersoforganization,notto are still sceptical about the dynamics of integration barriers. non-tariff China and South-East Asia aswellreduction of routes oftheNearandMiddle maritime East, people, accesstocontinental transport hubs and access tothe EAEU single market of 184 million interaction withintheUnionareobvious: economic advantagesofthe parties from possible integration intotheEAEU.Thepotential the currentdebatein Uzbekistan concerning a Potential andrisks benefits The paperconsiders the current Now Uzbekistan faces a difficult challenge Political risksandchallenges dominate Despitethis,mostspecialists free EUCACIS Policy Brief No. 11 - Uzbekistan’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union: another step in economic integration or Russian political pressure? 5 .
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(Accessed: 12 (Accessed: Available at: at: Available https://central.asia-news.com/en_ , as well as low rates of scientific and scientific of rates low as well as , 6 CARAVANSERAI (2019) Uzbeks speak out speak out (2019) Uzbeks CARAVANSERAI More than three million Uzbek labor migrants migrants labor Uzbek million three than More оценивает реальные Узбекистан выгоды In general, the current dynamics of In general, the current dynamics com/ru/news/2020/01/11/uzbekistan-ocenivaet- realnye-vygody-chlenstva-v-eaes 2020) January, 8 Russia-dominated in joining sovereignty to risks about at: EEU Available GB/articles/cnmi_ca/features/2019/11/01/feature-01 2020) 10 January, (Accessed: this issue with extreme As President caution. Mirziyoyev noted “we need to findit weigh to examine everything, need We path. the right 10 times and make a decision” that the show negotiations Uzbek-Russian the an of issues the discussing parties are actively EAEU and the early entry of Uzbekistan into the positive more publish more and media Uzbeki reviews about the organization and progress of the negotiations. Thus, the First Foreign “the that noted Ilhom Nematov Minister, results will reviewed now. The issue is being will be made. and a decision then be weighed 6 the EAEU and of the members in the territory of are $ 2 billion to spend up to they have in Russia only patents. of renewal and the processing on annually 7 членства в ЕАЭС (2020). this organization for a number of reasons: number of reasons: for a this organization new of developing the issues For the country, markets transport overcoming for their goods, the to conducive conditions creation isolation, migrants and their labour legal presence of in Russia and partially in (most of them work Kazakhstan) All renewal, remain unresolved. technological on the country’s leadership these problems spur Theoretically, solutions. for political search the EAEU, local the joining in case of Uzbekistan’s have equal access producers would to the EAEU conditions working improved market, countries created and for labour migrants would be resources and investment Russian access to Furthermore, be gained. would technologies would EAEU, Uzbekistan the joining upon become part of a unified custom space, where the EAEU common soberly assesses the Despite this, Uzbekistan customs tariff applies approaches situation around the EAEU and forced to consider the issue of accession into accession of issue the consider to forced (Accessed: 12 (Accessed: https://forbes. By agreement, the the agreement, By 4 https://eurasianet.org/can- Available at: at: Available (Accessed: 10 January 2020) 10 January (Accessed: (2019) Зачем Узбекистан Узбекистан (2019) Зачем KZ
All these factors show that so far, not
FORBES from gain Uzbekistan S. (2020) Can Bhutia, Despite the obvious problems of problems obvious the Despite It must also be pointed out that “the bloc out must also be pointed It Against this background, today in today background, this Against 5 the Eurasian Economic Union, what does the country what Union, Economic the Eurasian in the Russia-led membership from gain to stand at: trade bloc? Available uzbekistan-gain-from-eaeu-membership 2020). January, 4 заманивают в ЕАЭС? kz/finances/integration/zachem_uzbekistan_ zamanivayut_v_eaes/ 5 joining debates Uzbekistan While EAEU membership? interaction in the post-Soviet space, the EAEU the post-Soviet interaction in remains an important integration project both is economically and politically, and Uzbekistan a single member of the organization is satisfied that complaining Union, this activities of the with the promised economic benefits have not been received in return for limiting their sovereignty. mediate between members. There is a situation members. There is a situation mediate between concerns to has almost every member state that on other member States relating to restrictions pricing. These the free circulation of goods and Tashkent give also may disputes EAEU internal pause.” for the realization of long-term political goals political long-term of realization the for general rather than Federation Russian the of economic ones. to ability its about questions faces sustained stimulating economic integration in the region the in integration economic stimulating participation of its members due to the unequal the members in trade relations. Moreover, both states have many other organization and of this created was the impression that this union organization of an economic union with Russia with economic union of an organization politicization of relations. due to excessive EAEU the that perception a there is Uzbekistan of incapable and organization an as insolvent is However, the promised benefits of the bloc have bloc the of benefits promised the However, for the Central Asian members. not materialized circles analyst’s and the media Therefore, in increasingly are states, calls member the of to consider a withdrawal from the made being of such rule-breaking”. such of to conduct are supposed of the union members their to increase economic policy a common efficiently. more develop to and competitiveness 6 EUCACIS Policy Brief No. 11 - Uzbekistan`s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union: another step in economic integration or Russian political pressure? deputy-foreign-minister benefit-from-joining-the-eurasian-economic-union- tashkenttimes.uz/national/4805-uzbekistan-could- - Deputy Foreign Minister Available at: frombenefit joining the EurasianEconomic Union 9 and Russia, the Uzbek leadership was always the complexity of relationsbetween Uzbekistan Uzbekistan into this structure is political. Despite organization, the Kremlin’s motivation to draw in aformalsense,theEAEUisaneconomic among theexpertcommunity that, although, Conclusion economic interests.” Uzbekistan’s EAEU accession. Only based on its EAEU members.So frankly speaking I support Kazakhstan, RussiaandKyrgyzstan,theyarethe markets. But where are ourmain markets: in are growing. Exports areincreasing.Weneed Uzbekistan’s economy, industry,agriculture Today, thereis a clearunderstanding Tashkent Times (2019)Uzbekistan could 9 (Accessed: 11January, 2020) https:// “middle ground”forUzbekistan. observer inthenearfuturewould serve asa Alternatively, joining this organizationasan only then considerjoining thisorganization. relations with the EAEUmembercountries,and all the barriers that exist in bilateral economic eliminating consider to all of first worthwhile is serious aboutfurtherreformingitseconomy,it within the EAEU.Perhapsforcountrythatis Russia topreventpoliticization ofintegration own conditions and obtain guarantees from joining this organization and, without fail, impose seriously studyallpossiblerisksinthecaseof the relationswithRussia.Itisveryimportantto a clearally,andatthesametime,did not spoil able to find a “middle ground” and never became