Sustainability of Engineered Rivers in Arid Lands The Nile River Basin Prof. Dr. Lars Ribbe ITT, Cologne University of Applied Sciences (Germany) Sephra Thomas The University of Texas at Austin (USA) Muhammad Khalifa ITT, Cologne University of Applied Sciences (Germany)
September 23, 2020 1 Content
1. The River Nile Today
2. The River Nile Tomorrow
3. Sustainability Pathway
2 1. The River Nile Today
3 The Nile River Basin
• Great old civilization
Ancient Egypt Merowe, Sudan Aksum, Ethiopia
• Ongoing transboundary conflict
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) 4 Geographical Setting
- A transboundary basin Egypt shared between 11 countries Eritrea Sudan - Total basin’s area: 3.18 2 million km (Mohamed, 2017)
South - River length: 6670 km (El Sudan Ethiopia Bastawesy et. al., 2015) Congo Uganda - Current population: 400 Rwanda Kenya Sources of data: Political boundaries: GADM million inhabitant (Swain, 2011) Nile boundaries: ENTRO Burundi Relief background: Natural Tanzania Earth Data
5 Location map of the Nile Basin with the 11 riparian countries. Climate Conditions: Rainfall
Long-term monthly average precipitation (1970-2000) over the Nile Basin. These maps are created based on the data of WorldClim (Fick and Hijmans, 2017).
6 Climate Conditions: Temperature
Long-term monthly average temperature (1970-2000) over the Nile Basin. These maps are created based on the data of WorldClim (Fick and Hijmans, 2017).
7 Land Cover Types
8 Land cover map created based on Globcover 2009 data. Water Resources and Use Pattern
Nile river system
9 Water Use Patterns
Water use quantities (km3/year) in the Nile Basin countries. The water use is subdivided into agricultural, industrial and municipal uses. Data are obtained from AQUASTAT database.
10 Water Use in Agriculture
96%
82% of the total water withdrawal in the basin is taking place in Egypt and Sudan
Agricultural water withdrawal as % of Total water use total water withdrawal (km3/year)
Source of data: AQUASATAT11 Agriculture and energy production
Harvested area Total production (million ha) (million tonne)
Yield (tonne/ha)
Source of data: AQUASATAT 12 Agriculture and energy production
Existing dams (ITT, 2013)
13 Agriculture and energy production
Demand for electricity and potential and installed hydropower capacities in the riparian countries of the Nile Basin (IEA Energy Atlas, World Bank, NBI, 2000, African Development Bank, 2000)
Country Access to Electric power Peak demand for Hydropower Hydropower electricity (% consumption energy (MW) potential (WM) installed (WM) population) (kWh per capita)
Burundi 0.3 - 52 1,366 36
Congo 19.1 109 1,050 530,000 2829
Egypt 100 1,683 23,470 3,210 2825
Eritrea 48.4 89 - - -
Ethiopia 44.3 69 914 162,000 378
Kenya 63.8 164 1,194 30,000 611
Rwanda 34.1 - 78 3,000 59
South 25.4 44 - - - Sudan
Sudan 56.5 190.22 1,360 1,900 225
Tanzania 32.8 104 829 20,000 339
Uganda 22 - 446 10,200 155 14 Treaties and cooperation frameworks
2010 2019 1929 The Nile Basin Declaration of Principles Nile Waters 1993-2004 Cooperative over the GERD signed Agreement (Egypt Nile conference Framework (Ethiopia, Sudan and and Great Britain) series Agreement Egypt ?
1891-1925 1959 1999 Establishment of Treaties between Agreement on full Establishment of the Nile Basin the Great Britain utilization of the the Nile Basin Commission (NBC and the powers in Nile (Egypt and Initiative (NBI) control of the Sudan) upper reaches of the Nile basin
History of the Nile Basin agreements and treaties (Modified after ITT) 15 2. The River Nile Tomorrow
16 Population Growth
Total population of the Total population of the Nile countries Nile countries 2019: 0.54 billion 2019: 0.54 billion 2030: 0.69 billion (+27%) 2030: 0.72 billion (+60%) 2060: 1.06 billion (+96%) 2060: 1.36 billion (+202%)
Time series (1950-2060) of population estimation in the Nile riparian countries along with future forecasts till 2060. The future forecasts are based on three fertility projections (low and high). Data of these graphs are obtained from the population Division of the UN DESA (2019) database.
• This large increase in population (of the riparian countries would, consequently, put great pressure on the limited water resources of the Nile. 17 Agriculture and energy production
Planned irrigation Planned hydropower projects (ITT, 2013) projects (ITT, 2013)
18 The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
• The GERD will store 74 km3 of water and produce 6000 MW of electricity. • The dam has positive and negative impacts to downstream countries, i.e. Sudan and Egypt. 19 The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
GERD negotiations timeline
2020 July 2020 2014-2015 2014-2015 African Union First reservoir filling Tripartite talks. Tripartite talks. mediation completed (4.9 BCM)
3 February 2011 23 March 2015 2018-2019 2019- Feb., 2020 Talks continue Ethiopia Declaration of Principles African Union US-lead African Union announces the over the GERD signed. mediation negotiations Other mediators GERD
20 Environmental Problems
The total agricultural water withdrawal in the Nile basin (FAO, 2011) 3 • 2015: 99.19 km The historical average Nile flow • 2030: 107.02 km3 at Aswan Dam in Egypt is 84 3 • 2050: 114.77 km3 Km per year
The irrigated schemes in Sudan and Egypt are assumed to be the main source for this major increase in water withdrawal in the Nile Basin.
21 Environmental Problems
Environmental problems in the Nile Basin are expected to intensify in the future (Oneancan et., 2016). • Severe shift in biome distribution • Compounded water stress • Degradation of marine life • Reduced crop productivity
Climate change studies are forecasting an increasing tend of 0.3 – 0.6 oC per decade based on the A2 and B1 emission scenarios (Barnes, 2017).
Studies on rainfall forecasts show inconsistent results (increasing and decreasing trends) depending on the climate change scenarios used.
Due to the high diversity in climatic conditions in the basin, the impact of climate change might have different consequences on the different parts of the basin spatially and temporally (Degefu and He, 2015). 22 Environmental Problems
23 3. Sustainability pathway
24 Sustainability Pathway
Creating an enabling • Political and regional stability environment for • Access to technology and information transboundary • Comprehensive framework for cooperation cooperation
• Total water cycle management • Enhanced water use efficiency Optimizing the use of • Untapped potentials (e.g. crop yield gap) the Nile water • Sustainable intensification • Use of rainwater
Promoting • Sharing benefits beyond political boundaries transboundary • Nexus thinking cooperation
25 THANK YOU!
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