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Spice Briefing 03/25 2003 Scottish Parliament Election Results

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Spice Briefing 03/25 2003 Scottish Parliament Election Results SPICe ELECTION 2003 briefing ROSS BURNSIDE,STEPHEN HERBERT &STEPHEN CURTIS 6 May 2003 03/25 This paper provides analysis of the 2003 Scottish Parliament election and compares it with 1999. Many have claimed that the result has reshaped the landscape of Scottish politics, ending the traditional hegemony of the mainstream political parties, and allowing space for independent candidates to enter the political arena. This paper analyses what the results mean for the Scottish Parliament. It features contributions from various experts on Scottish Politics. John Curtice looks at the issue of turnout at the election and, among other things, what this means for the legitimacy of the Parliament. Peter Lynch analyses the state of the parties in the aftermath of polling day. Chris Eynon and Chris Martin look into what the pre-election opinion polls tell us about electoral behaviour. Douglas Fraser discusses the election campaign from the perspective of the political parties and the media. Finally, Nicola McEwen looks at regional voting patterns, and analyses how voters use of their 2nd “regional” vote affected the outcome of the election. The views expressed by these authors are their own, and do not represent the views of the Scottish Parliament. John Curtice is professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde. Peter Lynch is a lecturer in Politics at the University of Stirling. Chris Eynon is the Group Managing Director of NFO System Three in Edinburgh. Chris Martin is Senior Research Associate within NFO System Three Social Division. Douglas Fraser is the Political Editor of the Sunday Herald. Nicola McEwen is a research fellow in Politics at the University of Edinburgh. We would like to thank Robert Barry of the Northern Ireland Assembly and Lindsay Paterson of Edinburgh University for their invaluable assistance in producing this paper, and all the contributors to this briefing. SPICe Briefings are compiled for the benefit of the Members of the Parliament and their personal staff. Authors are available to discuss the contents of these papers with MSPs and their staff who should contact Ross Burnside on extension 86231, Stephen Curtis on extension 85373, Stephen Herbert on extension 85370. Members of the public or external organisations may comment on this briefing by emailing us at [email protected] However, researchers are unable to enter into personal discussion in relation to SPICe Briefing Papers. Every effort is made to ensure that the information contained in SPICe briefings is correct at the time of publication. Readers should be aware however that briefings are not necessarily updated or otherwise amended to reflect subsequent changes. www.scottish.parliament.uk 1 CONTENTS Contents.......................................................................................................................................2 Election Facts ..............................................................................................................................3 Scottish Parliament Electoral System ..........................................................................................4 Turnout.........................................................................................................................................9 Introduction...............................................................................................................................9 State of the parties.....................................................................................................................14 Introduction.............................................................................................................................14 Electoral Behaviour....................................................................................................................18 Introduction.............................................................................................................................18 The Election Campaign..............................................................................................................24 Introduction.............................................................................................................................24 Manifestos ..........................................................................................................................24 Opinion Polls.......................................................................................................................25 What the Papers Said .........................................................................................................26 Regional Vote ............................................................................................................................30 Introduction.............................................................................................................................30 Composition Of The Parliament .................................................................................................37 References.................................................................................................................................40 EXTERNAL CONTRIBUTIONS: Turnout, Electoral Behaviour and Fragmentation of the Party System, By John Curtice (p12) The Impact Of The 2003 Election On The Scottish Party System By Peter Lynch (p16) What The Opinion Polls Tell Us About Voting Behaviour By Chris Eynon and Chris Martin (p21) The Media Campaign By Douglas Fraser (p28) The Impact of the Second Vote By Dr Nicola McEwen (p32) FIGURES Figure 1: Share of First Vote by Party.........................................................................................5 Figure 2: Share of Regional Vote by Party..................................................................................5 Figure 3: Total Seats by Party.....................................................................................................6 Figure 4: Chamber Map ..............................................................................................................6 Figure 5: Trends In Opinion Polls: First Vote 1999 - 2003 ........................................................18 Figure 6: Trends in Opinion Polls: Second Vote 1999-2003 ....................................................20 TABLES Table 1: Scottish Parliament Election Results 1999 - 2003.........................................................4 Table 2: Regional 2nd Vote Turnout.............................................................................................9 Table 3: Differences between constituency and list votes for parties (regions), 1999...............30 Table 4: Differences between constituency and list votes for parties (regions), 2003...............32 Table 5: Age Profile of MSPs ....................................................................................................38 Table 6: Educational Background of MSPs...............................................................................38 Table 7: Political Background of MSPs .....................................................................................38 Table 8: Occupational Background of MSPs.............................................................................39 providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 2 ELECTION FACTS x The 2003 Scottish Parliamentary election left the parties with the following MSP numbers: Scottish Labour 50 Scottish National Party 27 Scottish Conservatives 18 Scottish Liberal Democrats 17 Scottish Greens 7 Scottish Socialist Party 6 Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party 1 Independents 3 x Turnout in the election was 49.43% in the constituency voting and 49.41% in the regional voting down from 58.16% and 58.07% in both votes in 1999 x Of the 129 MSPs elected, 26 (20%) are new and 51 (39.5%) are women x There are no MSPs from ethnic minority groups x A total of 408 candidates contested first past the post (FPTP) seats in the Scottish elections, an increase of 85 from the 1999 election x All 73 FPTP seats were contested by Labour, the SNP, the Conservative Party, and Liberal Democrats, with the Scottish Socialists contesting 70 constituencies x There were 605 candidates on the lists in the eight regions, compared with 500 in the 1999 election x All eight regions were contested by the six major parties as well as the Scottish People’s Alliance, the Socialist Labour Party and the UK Independence Party providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 3 SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT ELECTORAL SYSTEM The system used for elections to the Scottish Parliament is a form of proportional representation (PR) known as the Additional Member System (AMS). Prior to the first elections to the UK’s devolved administrations in 19991, such a proportional representational voting system had not been used for elections in any part of the UK. Using this system, each voter has two votes. The first is cast for a constituency MSP, of whom there are 73, via the same First Past the Post system used for elections to Westminster. The second vote is used to elect the additional members, of whom there are 56. The additional members are elected at a regional level (there are 8 regions) to ensure that, as far as possible, the share of MSPs in the Scottish Parliament reflects the share of votes cast for each party. Under the AMS system in the 1999 and 2003 Scottish elections, no single party achieved an overall majority. In 1999, the seats were distributed
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