Bulletin #29 • October 2019 • www.zrbf.co.zw
The purpose of the ZRBF High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is to avail real IN THIS REPORT time data and information on identified and agreed trigger indicators for Overall Results and Implications 2 the activation of the crisis modifier, performance monitoring, programming Implications and Actions related to Resilience and other decisions for the overall ZRBF adaptive programme management. Programming 4 Information presented in this bulletin is readily available in the HFM Online Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators 5 Database, accessible using this url
Vegetation Condition Index 5 https://197.155.231.242/undp/ZRBF/HFMS/index.php Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger Indicators 6 The bulletin contains official information for the month of September 2019 collected from various sources by ZRBF partners and analysed by ZRBF PMU. The Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update and Proposed Mitigatory Activities 7 High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is a product of collaboration between the ZRBF Partners and other government agencies. For questions and comments Annex 1: Flood monitoring thresholds for water level in selected rivers 11 regarding this bulletin, kindly get in touch withVhusomuzi Sithole (vhusomuzi. [email protected]), Alfios Mayoyo ([email protected]) or Rufael Fassil ([email protected]).
UNDP Zimbabwe, ZRBF Programme Management Unit Arundel Office Park, Block 9, Norfolk Rd, Mt. Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe, Phone: +263 4 338836-44 Page 2 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #29 | October 2019
Overall Results and Implications
Summary Classification
Key Highlights
According to the High Frequency Monitoring (HFM) classification, all districts except 4 districts were in the Alert category. The four districts which were in the alarm category were Bubi, Chiredzi, Kariba, and Mberengwa. The following indicators were rated “Emergency” during the reporting month of September 2019 were: 1. Cattle Price in Binga, Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umzingwane and Zvishavane 2. Common Diarrhoea Reported Cases in Nkayi and Umguza 3. Fmd Reported Cases in Chiredzi 4. Goat Price in Beitbridge, Binga, Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mbire, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane. 5. Indigenous Chicken Price in Beitbridge, Binga, Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mbire, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane. 6. Maize Price in Beitbridge, Binga, Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mbire, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane. 7. Number Livestock Poverty Deaths in Mberengwa 8. Pastures Availability in Beitbridge, Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mudzi and Umzingwane 9. Pearl Millet Price in Beitbridge, Binga, Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mbire, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane. 10. Rapoko Price in Beitbridge, Chiredzi, Insiza, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nyanga and Zvishavane 11. School Attendance in Insiza 12. Sheep Price in Beitbridge, Binga, Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mbire, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane. 13. Sorghum Price in Beitbridge, Binga, Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mbire, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane. 14. State of Water Sources in Mberengwa.
Page 3 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #29 | October 2019 Zvishavane
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Umzingwane
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Normal Normal No data Umguza
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Nyanga
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
No data No data Nkayi
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Mwenezi
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Mutoko
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Mudzi
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Mbire
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm
No data No data No data No data Mberengwa
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Alarm Alarm Normal Matobo
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Lupane
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Normal Kariba
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm
No data No data No data No data No data Insiza
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Normal Normal Chiredzi
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alarm Binga
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm
No data No data No data No data No data Bubi
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Beitbridge
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Month Jan-19 Apr-19 Oct-18 Sep-19 July-19 Feb-19 Nov 18 Nov Dec-18 Aug-19 Aug-18 Mar-19 May-19 Sept-18 June-19 Table 1 below summarises these trends in the overall classification of all 18 districts over the last 12 months. over the last of all 18 districts classification in the overall summarises these trends 1 below Table of the 18 districts Overall Classification Page 4 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #29 | October 2019
Implications and Actions related to Resilience Programming • Pastures continue to be depleted across the 18 districts with 8 of the districts ranked under emergency and 9 districts rated under alarm. Highest prevalence of livestock poverty deaths was recorded in Beit- bridge, Chiredzi, Binga, Mwenezi, Mberengwa and Zvishavane districts, with Mberengwa recording the highest number of 138 poverty deaths. Cattle owners should be encouraged to provide supplementary feeds their cattle, giving priority to the pregnant or lactating cows. Non-productive stock should be targeted for destocking, through pen fattening linked to markets or feed – cattle swap by abattoirs such as MC Meats. Farmers with dry stover should be advised to treat their stover before they feed their cat- tle to improve the nutrition content of their stover. Urea treatment will boost the crude protein of dry stover from 3% CP to 12% CP and will go a long way in maintaining the body throughout the dry season.
• Chiredzi district recorded 1130 FMD cases. The Department of Veterinary Services should effect cattle movement restrictions to prevent the spread of the disease across and outside the district. Three dis- tricts were in the Alarm category with most cases being Newcastle, lumpy skin and heart water. cattle owners should be encouraged to vaccinate their cattle against these deadly diseases, as is it is cheaper to vaccinate than to treat affected cattle.
• Dysentery and common diarrhoea cases were recorded in all districts with 10 of the districts classi- fied under emergency category for water borne diseases. Highest cases of water borne diseases were recorded in Chiredzi, Mudzi and Kariba with 1302, 901 and 580 cases respectively. The consortia part- ners across the 18 districts are encouraged to share this HFM report with the local authorities and the relevant government ministries at district level, highlighting the alarming prevalence of water borne diseases. They, through the local authorities should engage the Ministry of Health to carry our rigorous public health and hygiene promotion campaigns to reduce the prevalence of diarrheal diseases. Dysen- tery and diarrhea affected community members should be encouraged to use oral rehydration solution while seeking medical attention from the nearest health centre.
• Distance to water sources was in the Alert category for 13 out of the 18 districts. Households travel- ling between one and five kilometres for domestic water with households travelling an average of 4km to access water. Water for Livestock trekking distance was in the Alarm category in Kariba, Binga and Binga, with an average of 7-8 kilometres. The ZRBF consortia should take advantage of the cur- rent Crisis Modifier activations to partner with other development agencies, to work closely with the affected communities to rehabilitate non-functional boreholes, drilling new boreholes and installing solar pumps on high yielding boreholes where possible to reduce trekking distances and availing more portable water to the communities.
• In all the 17 districts, households were eating an average of 2 meals a day with Bubi recording an aver- age of 1 meal per day. The ZRBF consortia need to deliberately share these negative coping mechanism statistics with the local authorities, other development agencies and the department of Social services to facilitate emergency food assistance response to the needy. Page 5 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #29 | October 2019
Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators Vegetation Condition Index
Figure 1: Vegetation Condition Index for September 2019
The Vegetation Condition Index shows an improving vegetation condition in north-eastern and north-west- ern districts. This is mainly due to the trees getting new leaves at this time of the year. VCI culminated in the following classification:
1. Normal (Binga, Kariba, Mudzi and Nyanga)
2. Alert (Bubi, Insiza, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mbire, Mutoko, Nkayi, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane), and
3. Alarm (Beitbridge, Chiredzi and Mwenezi).
District VCI Vaue Crisis Modifier District VCI Vaue Crisis Modifier Beitbridge 0.42 Alarm Mbire 0.63 Alert Binga 0.77 Normal Mudzi 0.92 Normal Bubi 0.58 Alert Mutoko 0.93 Alert Chiredzi 0.4 Alarm Mwenezi 0.38 Alarm Insiza 0.51 Alert Nkayi 0.54 Alert Kariba 0.72 Normal Nyanga 0.94 Normal Lupane 0.54 Alert Umguza 0.63 Alert Matobo 0.57 Alert Umzingwane 0.47 Alert Mberengwa 0.56 Alert Zvishavane 0.48 Alert Page 6 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #29 | October 2019
Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger Indicators • The micro-indicator data from the 17 reported districts reflect conditions in the four broad classes of indicators, biophysical, production and access indicators, were mostly in the Alert/Normal category maintaining the same categories from the past month. • Biophysical indicators were in Alarm category in two (2) districts mainly due to pasture availability which are inad- equate and critically inadequate. Fourteen districts were in the Alert category. • Production indicators were in the Alert category for 12 down from 16 districts in the previous month. This is at- tributed mainly to crisis modifier interventions which saw a reduction in livestock poverty deaths • Access indicators were in the Alarm category for one (1) district, the rest of the districts were in the Alert category. Crisis modifier interventions saw the drilling and rehabilitation of boreholes across the districts significantly lower- ing the livestock trekking distances and distances to water sources for household use. • All 18 districts were in the Emergency stage for trade indicators. It must be noted that trade indicator thresholds have greatly increased due to the changes in the economic environment hence the system is yet to be upgraded to reflect the realist thresholds.
Trigger Indicator summary for September 2019 District Biophysical Indicators Production Indicators Access Indicators Trade Indicators Beitbridge Alert Normal Alert Emergency Binga Alert Alert Alert Emergency Bubi Alert Normal Alert Emergency Chiredzi Alarm Alert Alert Emergency Insiza Alert Alert Alarm Emergency Kariba Alert Alert Alert Emergency Lupane Alert Normal Alert Emergency Matobo Alarm Alert Alert Emergency Mberengwa Alert Alert Alert Emergency Mbire Alert Alert Alert Emergency Mudzi Alert Alert Alert Emergency Mutoko Normal Normal Alert Emergency Mwenezi Alert Alert Alert Emergency Nkayi Alert Alert Alert Emergency Nyanga Normal Alert Alert Emergency Umguza Alert Normal Alert Emergency Umzingwane Alert Normal Alert Emergency Zvishavane Alert Alert Alert Emergency Page 7 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #29 | October 2019
Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update and Proposed Mitigatory Activities
Biophysical Trigger indicators
Biophysical trigger indicator summary for September 2019
Biophysical Indicators District Pastures Availability Rainfall State of Water Sources Beitbridge 1 0 2 Binga 2 No data 2 Bubi 1 0 2 Chiredzi 1 No data 3 Insiza 1 0 3 Kariba 2 0 2 Lupane 2 0 3 Matobo 1 0 2 Mberengwa 1 0.54 1 Mbire 2 0 3 Mudzi 1 0 4 Mutoko 2 0 4 Mwenezi 2 0.75 2 Nkayi 2 0 2 Nyanga 3 0 3 Umguza 2 0 2 Umzingwane 1 0 2 Zvishavane 2 0 3
• Pasture availability was in Emergency category in eight districts as pastures continue to be depleted. Nine (9) Districts were in the Alarm category and one (1) in the Alert.
• One (1) district; Mberengwa was in emergency for state of water sources with less than 30% of boreholes functional. Nine (9) districts were in the Alarm category and six (6) in the Alert category. Page 8 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #29 | October 2019
Production Trigger indicators
Production trigger indicator summary for September 2019
Production Indicators District Crops Pest Crop Condition Livestock Body Number Reported Cases Reported Cases and Diseases Condition Livestock of Livestock of Waterborne Outbreaks Poverty Deaths Diseases Diseases Beitbridge 2 3 1 63 3 4 Binga No data No data 0 80 74 245 Bubi 3 No data 1 9 537 4 Chiredzi 2 2 2 48 1130 1302 Insiza No data No data 1 22 2 429 Kariba No data No data 2 0 386 654 Lupane No data No data 1 4 7 12 Matobo No data No data 1 34 34 189 Mberengwa No data No data 0 138 31 56 Mbire No data 3 2 0 16 587 Mudzi No data No data 2 0 49 901 Mutoko 2 2 2 0 8 0 Mwenezi 2 3 1 51 0 35 Nkayi 3 No data 1 0 0 250 Nyanga 2 2 0 0 6 23 Umguza 3 No data No data 0 0 604 Umzingwane 3 No data 2 0 14 157 Zvishavane No data No data 2 50 81 23
• Five (5) districts were in the Alert category for crop pests and diseases. The rest of the districts were normal as there are no crops in the fields. • Three (3) districts; Binga, Mberengwa and Nyanga were in the Alert category for livestock body con- dition, mainly due to critically inadequate pasture and high livestock trekking distances for water. Six (6) DISTRICTS WERE IN THE Alarm category and seven (7) in Alert. • High numbers of Livestock poverty deaths were experienced in Beitbridge, Chiredzi, Binga, Mwen- ezi, Mberengwa and Zvishavane districts. Mberengwa recorded the highest number of 138 deaths placing it in the Emergency category while the other five districts were in the Alarm category. Three districts were in the Alert category whilst the rest were in normal. • Chiredzi district was in the Emergency stage for livestock diseases with 1130 recorded cases; of these 1075 were FMD; Cases were reported in wards 14 and 15. Movement of cattle has been restricted, however the disease is fast spreading and all villages in the 2 wards are affected. Three districts were in the Alarm category with most cases being Newcastle, lumpy skin and heart water. 11 districts were in the Alert category. • Ten districts were in the Emergency category for water borne diseases down from 16 in the previ- ous month. Chiredzi, Mudzi and Kariba recorded the highest with1302, 901 and 580 cases reported respectively. Dysentery and common diarrhoea cases were recorded in all districts. There were no cholera and typhoid cases reported. Six (6) districts were in Alarm and One (1) in Alert. Page 9 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #29 | October 2019
Access Trigger Indicators
Access trigger indicator summary for September 2019
Access Indicators District Distances to Water Number of Meals School Attendance Water for Livestock Sources for Households Trekking Distance Beitbridge 1.5 2 No data 2.5 Binga 3 2 3 7 Bubi 2.5 1 4 5 Chiredzi 2.89 2 3 3.5 Insiza 3 2 1 3 Kariba 3 2 3 8 Lupane 3 2 3 3 Matobo 3 2 4 4 Mberengwa 2.65 2 4 5.2 Mbire 1 2 3 5 Mudzi 2 2 4 3.5 Mutoko 2 2 3 3 Mwenezi 2.58 2 3 3.92 Nkayi No data 2 4 7 Nyanga 1 2 3 1 Umguza 2.5 2 4 5 Umzingwane 4 2 4 3.5 Zvishavane 1.53 2 4 3.09
• Distance to water sources was in the Alert category for 13 out of the 18 districts. Households trav- elling between one and five kilometres for domestic water. Umzingwane was in Alarm category as households are travelling an average of 4km to access water.
• Seven districts were in the Alarm category for livestock trekking distance up from six in the previous month, with cattle in Kariba, Binga and Binga trekking an average of 7- 8 kilometres for water. Ten districts were in the Alert category, water sources are reduced.
• Seventeen districts where households were eating an average of 2 meals a day, were in the Alert category. Due to increase in prices of food commodities, households have reduced meals to two per day to cope. Bubi is in the Alarm category as families have reduced meals to 1 per day.
• School attendance was in the Alert category in eight (8) with average attendance of 3 days. Insiza was in emergency with children attending once a week. Page 10 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #29 | October 2019
Trade Trigger Indicators
Trade trigger indicator summary for September 2019
Trade Indicators District Cattle Price Goat Price Indigenous Maize Pearl Rapoko Sheep Sorghum Chicken Price Millet Price Price Price Price Price Beitbridge 2500 400 70 80 90 90 500 90 Binga 3000 200 35 60 50 No data 200 50 Bubi 3500 300 30 35 35 No data 380 35 Chiredzi 2587.5 353.75 32.81 40.25 36.25 40 490.63 35.44 Insiza 1344 143 20 18 33 28 142 23 Kariba 3000 150 32.5 50 No data No data 250 60 Lupane 1182 99 25 20 20 22 116 30 Matobo 1388 190 25 32 35 33 238 21 Mberengwa 4000 400 44 50 60 80 500 50 Mbire 2500 250 35 30 43 43 265 30 Mudzi 2400 228 30 35 40 50 372 28 Mutoko 2500 300 45 45 40 50 450 40 Mwenezi 3625 273.75 40.42 44.58 42.08 83.64 398.33 41.25 Nkayi 2500 240 50 40 No data No data 250 No data Nyanga 3500 280 30 35 60 60 500 50 Umguza 400 300 35 40 0 No data 500 50 Umzingwane 2000 400 50 40 50 No data 500 50 Zvishavane 5000 400 50 50 50 50 600 50
• The price increases in all the highlighted commodities was mainly due to the weakening of the bond notes against the US dollar and a response to the general increase in prices of goods. Most districts in the normal category have pegged their prices in USD and those with prices below 10 are also in USD. Prices continue to increase in response to the economic environment. Page 11 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #29 | October 2019
Annex 1: Flood monitoring thresholds for water level in selected rivers
River water flow categorisation
Station River Site Province Maximum Unit Normal Alert Trigger 1 Alarm Emergency number flow/level Trigger 3 Trigger 2 A38 Gwayi Dahlia Mat North 147 m3/s <66.15 66.15 88.2 117.6 B35 Limpopo Beit Bridge Mat South 6 m3/s <2.7 2.7 3.6 4.8 C109 Musengezi Chidodo Mash 7.2 m3/s <3.24 3.24 4.32 5.76 Central C59 Sanyati Copper Midlands 2320 m3/s <1044 1044 1392 1856 Queen C61 Manyame Chinhoyi Mash West 16.5 m3/s <7.425 7.425 9.9 13.2 Bridge C68 Musengezi Centenary Mash 80.7 m3/s <36.315 36.315 48.42 64.56 Central D75 Mazowe Mazowe Mash 577 m3/s <259.65 259.65 346.2 461.6 Bridge Central E130 Odzi Odzi Gorge Manicaland 383 m3/s <172.35 172.35 229.8 306.4 E21 Save Condo Dam Manicaland 2853 m3/s <1283.85 1283.85 1711.8 2282.4 E74 Runde Confluence Masvingo 2021 m3/s <909.45 909.45 1212.6 1616.8 with Tokwe ZGP25 Zambezi Victoria Mat North 9352 m3/s <4208.4 4208.4 5611.2 7481.6 Falls Crisis modifier range < 45% 45.1%