ZIMBABWE Climate Change and Water Resources Planning, Development and Management in Zimbabwe

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized GO VERNMENT OFZIMB ABWE Climate Change and Water Resources Planning, Development and Management in Zimbabwe An Issues Paper Richard Davis and Rafik Hirji World Bank October 2014 Table of Contents Preface......................................................................................................................................v Acknowledgements ...............................................................................................................vi Acronyms ...............................................................................................................................vii Executive Summary................................................................................................................ix 1. Water and the Economy.....................................................................................................1 Water and the Economy............................................................................................................................1 Water, Health and the Environment........................................................................................................3 Zimbabwe Response to Climate Variability and Climate Change......................................................4 Objectives of the Paper..............................................................................................................................5 Methodology...............................................................................................................................................6 Structure of the Paper ................................................................................................................................7 2. Water and Climate..............................................................................................................8 Climate Variability ......................................................................................................................................8 Climate Change...........................................................................................................................................9 Implications of Climate Change .............................................................................................................11 Climate Change in Zimbabwe.................................................................................................................12 3. Water Resources Availability and Use.............................................................................14 Water Resources .......................................................................................................................................14 Water Use and Demand...........................................................................................................................20 4. Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources: A Preliminary Assessment ................24 Zimbabwe Climate Change Studies ......................................................................................................24 Methodology of National Study ............................................................................................................25 Changes in Precipitation .........................................................................................................................26 Changes in Water Resources ..................................................................................................................28 Comparison with Other Studies ............................................................................................................32 Implications on Water Resources Planning, Management and Investment .................................33 5. Case Studies of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Opportunities .........36 Case Study 1: Harare Water Supply.......................................................................................................36 Case Study 2: Bulawayo water supply ...................................................................................................40 Case Study 3: Roswa Dam Operations ..................................................................................................43 Case Study 4: Limpopo Basin: Irrigation ..............................................................................................45 Case Study 5: Kariba Hydropower Operations....................................................................................48 Climate Change and Water Resources Planning, Development and i Management in Zimbabwe 6. Adaptation Opportunities...............................................................................................52 Water Resources Governance ................................................................................................................52 Water Resources Planning and Management.....................................................................................54 Water Resources Infrastructure.............................................................................................................56 Information, Public Education and Communications .......................................................................57 7. Findings and Recommendations ....................................................................................60 Findings......................................................................................................................................................60 Recommendations...................................................................................................................................61 References.........................................................................................................................62 Appendix A Climate Change Initiatives .............................................................................68 Appendix B Groundwater Resources..................................................................................71 Climate Change and Water Resources Planning, Development and Management in Zimbabwe ii List of Figures Figure 1 Relationship between annual precipitation and GDP.....................................................2 Figure 2 Linkages in the post-crisis Zimbabwean Economy.........................................................2 Figure 3 Warm and cold days and precipitation deviation in Zimbabwe..................................13 Figure 4 River basins of Zimbabwe...................................................................................................14 Figure 5 Precipitation distribution across Zimbabwe..................................................................15 Figure 6 Zimbabwe Precipitation Trend..........................................................................................16 Figure 7 Sectoral water use in Zimbabwe, excluding primary uses, power generation ............ and Environmental uses......................................................................................................21 Figure 8 Potential and volume of water actually sold in catchments in 2010 and 2011..........22 Figure 9 Projected precipitation anomalies (difference between current and Projected ........... Precipitation) for the year 2080 for the ecologically aware (left) and the business ............ as usual Scenarios (right)....................................................................................................27 Figure 10 Projected runoff in 2080 under scenarios showing reduced emissions ............ (left) and business as usual (right)....................................................................................28 Figure 11 Hydrogeology Map of Zimbabwe......................................................................................31 Figure 12 Groundwater drought risk for Southern Africa..............................................................32 Figure 13 Current and projected per capita water availability (Ml per capita per year) ............ for 2050 and 2080 under three population growth scenarios.....................................34 Climate Change and Water Resources Planning, Development and iii Management in Zimbabwe List of Tables Table A Runoff and Storage Potential in Zimbabwean Catchments ......................................xii Table 1 Cyclone frequency in Zimbabwe.......................................................................................8 Table 2 Surface water resources of Zimbabwe's catchments...................................................17 Table 3 Groundwater recharge as proportion of precipitation...............................................18 Table 4 Estimated current, 2050 and 2080 MAP (mm) in Zimbabwe catchments under ............ two emissions scenarios...................................................................................................27 Table 5 Estimated current, 2050 and 2080 MAR (Gl) in Zimbabwean catchments ............ under two emissions scenarios........................................................................................28 Table 6 Estimated groundwater recharge (Gl/yr) for Zimbabwean catchments.................30 Table 7 Precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff predictions for Mzingwane ............ catchment............................................................................................................................33

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