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Investment Opinion Changes and Alterations to Coverage

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Investment Opinion Changes and Alterations to Coverage EQUITY RESEARCH IU RATING TARGET CHANGES Energy: Offshore Drilling Energy: Oilfield Services February 11, 2013 Investment Opinion Changes and James Crandell, Managing Director [email protected] 212.702.4515 Alterations to Coverage Peter Hatfield, Analyst [email protected] 212.372.5710 J.B. Lowe, CFA, Analyst [email protected] 212.372.5705 We are reducing our investment opinion on nine of the 50 oil service stocks we have under Jonathan Hunter, Associate coverage, reflecting the strength in oil service stocks in recent weeks; the fact that certain [email protected] 212.372.5715 stocks we have had Buy recommendations on are approaching our price targets; the still Novid Rassouli, Associate sluggish outlook for E&P spending in North America; and a change in analyst coverage. [email protected] 212.702.4502 The stocks we are downgrading to Hold from Buy are Baker Hughes, Basic Energy Services, Calfrac Well Services, Trican Well Service, Ensco, Ensign Energy Services, Lufkin Industries, Newpark, and Tenaris. We continue to have a positive view on the performance of the oil service group. At this point, we have a clear preference for those companies strongly exposed to the multiyear upturn forecast for international exploration and production spending and those oriented toward the exceptional outlook for ultra-deepwater. Given the sluggish outlook for North American E&P spending and the outperformance recently of North America-oriented stocks, we are deemphasizing this group. Please read Required Disclosures & Analyst Certification on the last pages of this report. MEMBER: FINRA/SIPC www.drco.com DAHLMAN ROSE & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH Oil Service Stocks Have Been Strong Since the oil service group's recent bottom (11/14/2012), the OSX has risen by 20%, Performers compared with a 12% rise by the S&P 500. Leading the way have been the North American- oriented companies – almost all of which have had a significant move off of their lows. Shortly after the bottom, we turned positive on the North American stocks on November 19, 2012 with our report: Upgrading North American Service & Drillers - Recovery in 2013 Likely. Given the sluggish outlook for exploration and production spending and the excellent performance of the group, we believe it's time to take money off of the table in these names. We are reducing our investment opinion to Hold from Buy for Baker Hughes, Basic Energy Services, Calfrac Well Services, Trican Well Service, Ensco, Ensign Energy Services, Lufkin Industries, Newpark, and Tenaris (most of which have strong exposure to North America). Performance of Our Entire Coverage Universe since North American Upgrade Current NAM Upgrade Ticker Rating Price 19-Nov-12 % Return Hercules Offshore HERO Buy $7.09 $4.61 54% Basic Energy Services BAS Hold $14.75 $9.73 52% Geospace Technologies** GEOS Buy $109.49 $74.72 47% RPC, Inc RES Hold $16.22 $11.10 46% Weatherford WFT Buy $13.30 $9.47 40% Key Energy Services KEG Hold $8.74 $6.33 38% Patterson-UTI PTEN Buy $23.47 $17.13 37% Halliburton HAL Buy $41.26 $31.71 30% Core Labs CLB Hold $131.81 $101.73 30% Trican Well Service TCW-T Hold $14.22 $11.39 25% Helmerich & Payne** HP Buy $64.39 $51.64 25% Transocean RIG Buy $56.38 $45.46 24% Precision Drilling PDS Buy $9.10 $7.38 23% Cameron International CAM Buy $65.41 $53.37 23% Newpark Resources NR Hold $8.75 $7.17 22% C&J Energy Services CJES Buy $23.57 $19.47 21% Nabors Industries NBR Buy $16.57 $13.69 21% Ensign Energy Service ESI-T Hold $17.20 $14.24 21% U.S. Silica SLCA Buy $20.08 $16.73 20% Atwood Oceanics** ATW Buy $54.46 $45.38 20% WEIR Group Plc WEIR-LN Sell 2,116.00 1,764.00 20% Tesco TESO Hold $12.32 $10.31 19% ION Geophysical IO Hold $7.36 $6.21 19% Bristow BRS Buy $59.13 $49.99 18% Calfrac Well Services CFW-T Hold $26.89 $22.77 18% Oil States International OIS Buy $78.31 $66.83 17% Lufkin Industries LUFK Hold $61.41 $52.50 17% Oceaneering International OII Buy $63.68 $54.79 16% Noble Corporation NE Buy $39.76 $34.34 16% Ocean Rig UDW ORIG Buy $17.57 $15.22 15% Carbo Ceramics CRR Hold $86.37 $74.99 15% TGS-Nopec TGS-OS Hold 207.20 180.60 15% ENSCO International ESV Hold $63.72 $55.54 15% Tidewater* TDW Buy $49.37 $43.98 12% Diamond Offshore DO Hold $74.81 $66.77 12% Schlumberger SLB Buy $79.07 $70.69 12% FMC Technologies FTI Hold $59.82 $53.74 11% Baker Hughes BHI Hold $45.65 $41.62 10% Rowan Companies RDC Hold $35.14 $32.76 7% Vantage VTG Buy $1.80 $1.69 7% Forum Energy Technologies FET Buy $25.55 $24.16 6% Pacific Drilling PACD Buy $10.45 $9.99 5% Tenaris TS Hold $40.06 $38.37 4% Trinidad Drilling TDG-T Buy $7.06 $6.87 3% Global Geophysical GGS Hold $4.00 $3.93 2% Seadrill SDRL Hold $38.40 $38.96 -1% Petroleum Geo-Services PGS-OS Buy 94.25 96.70 -3% Fred Olsen Energy FOE-OS Hold 247.90 255.10 -3% CGG Veritas CGG Buy $28.14 $29.19 -4% National Oilwell Varco NOV Buy $69.08 $73.29 -6% Source: Bloomberg & DRCO Research MEMBER: FINRA/SIPC 2 www.drco.com DAHLMAN ROSE & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH However, We Continue with Our Despite our downgrades, we remain positive on oil service stock performance and maintain Positive Investment View an overweight stance toward the group. Our focus is on companies strongly exposed to the multiyear upturn we forecast in international exploration and production expenditures. We estimate a high single-digit percentage increase in international E&P spending, which would be the third consecutive annual increase. Historically, international spending has tended to move in long cycles (for example, the 2000-2008 period had eight consecutive years of sequential increases), and we think several more up years are likely after 2013. We also continue to prefer stocks that are leveraged to ultra-deepwater. In our view, the two biggest secular trends in the business are tremendous growth in ultra-deepwater spending and the globalization of horizontal drilling in the shales, which to date has been largely a North American phenomenon. Following our nine downgrades, we now have 27 stocks rated Buy, 22 rated Hold, and 1 rated Sell. Our top picks for six to twelve-month appreciation are Buy-rated Weatherford International, Halliburton, National Oilwell Varco, Noble Corporation, Petroleum Geoservices, and Ocean Rig. With an analyst departure (Doug Garber) on our team, we are realigning coverage of the 50 oil service stocks that we cover. We are now covering all the mid- to large-cap oil service and equipment companies, including three previously covered by Doug; Peter Hatfield, in addition to covering his six seismic companies, will also cover 11 small-cap North American companies formerly covered by Doug; J.B. Lowe will cover the 12 offshore drillers formerly covered by Doug and me. I will still have responsibility for the macro outlook, overall strategy and management of the group. MEMBER: FINRA/SIPC 3 www.drco.com DAHLMAN ROSE & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH Stock Coverage by Analyst Monday, February 11, 2013 Dahlman Rose Oil Services & Drilling Comparative Analysis Price Fair Value EPS CFPS EBITDA Company TKR 2/8/13 Rtg. est* 2011A 2012E 2013E 2011A 2012E 2013E 2011A 2012E 2013E Oil Service James Crandell Coverage Baker Hughes BHI $45.65 Hold $50 $4.20 $3.21 $3.00 $6.98 $6.48 $6.53 $4,306 $3,837 $3,762 Bristow BRS $59.13 Buy $70 $3.60 $3.12 $3.85 $4.12 $6.29 $7.01 $269 $277 $314 Cameron International CAM $65.41 Buy $74 $2.67 $3.15 $4.05 $3.50 $4.17 $5.30 $1,119 $1,318 $1,721 Carbo Ceramics CRR $86.37 Hold $74 $5.67 $4.62 $4.60 $4.84 $5.88 $5.09 $235 $205 $204 Core Labs CLB $131.81 Hold $96 $3.79 $4.51 $5.20 $4.27 $4.99 $5.74 $284 $318 $351 FMC Technologies FTI $48.62 Hold $42 $1.64 $1.85 $2.35 $2.09 $2.41 $2.93 $665 $756 $925 Forum Energy Technologies FET $25.55 Buy $28 $1.37 $1.85 $2.00 $2.28 $2.56 $2.78 $201 $307 $359 Halliburton HAL $41.26 Buy $50 $3.36 $3.00 $3.15 $4.83 $4.77 $5.24 $6,216 $6,133 $6,479 Key Energy Services KEG $8.74 Hold $8 $0.91 $0.68 $0.55 $2.07 $2.08 $2.17 $419 $422 $433 Lufkin Industries LUFK $61.41 Hold $66 $2.43 $2.83 $3.90 $1.51 $2.24 $4.97 $142 $200 $263 National Oilwell Varco NOV $69.08 Buy $95 $4.77 $5.91 $6.20 $6.08 $7.38 $7.84 $3,534 $4,316 $4,667 Oceaneering International OII $63.68 Buy $62 $2.06 $2.65 $3.30 $3.24 $3.43 $4.02 $468 $593 $683 Oil States International OIS $78.31 Buy $99 $5.86 $8.27 $7.65 $3.91 $10.80 $11.10 $698 $927 $908 Schlumberger SLB $79.07 Buy $92 $3.66 $4.18 $4.90 $6.07 $6.80 $7.92 $10,098 $11,187 $11,478 Tenaris TS $40.06 Hold $45 $2.26 $2.94 $3.25 $3.35 $3.90 $4.25 $2,449 $2,836 $3,099 Tidewater* TDW $49.37 Buy $56 $2.32 $1.97 $2.80 $4.97 $4.67 $5.78 $273 $265 $343 Weatherford WFT $13.30 Buy $18 $0.56 $0.92 $1.30 $1.84 $1.20 $3.15 $2,608 $2,924 $3,564 Peter Hatfield Coverage Basic Energy Services BAS $14.75 Hold $15 $1.88 $0.88 ($0.05) $6.75 $7.09 $5.03 $333 $306 $271 C&J Energy Services CJES $23.57 Buy $32 $3.28 $3.45 $3.20 $3.37 $4.38 $5.28 $285 $334 $334 Calfrac Well Services CFW-T $26.89 Hold $32 $4.72 $2.22 $2.00 $5.22 $6.28 $4.61 $422 $274 $274 Newpark Resources NR $8.75 Hold $10 $0.80 $0.66 $0.82 ($0.33) $1.59 $1.21 $162 $138 $162 RPC, Inc RES $16.22 Hold $14 $1.35 $1.27 $0.95 $1.75 $2.58 $2.06 $666 $663 $567 Tesco TESO $12.32 Hold $12 $0.71 $1.06 $1.00 $0.49 $1.41 $2.53 $82 $105 $100 Trican Well Service TCW-T $14.22 Hold $15 $2.32 $0.47 $0.85 $2.11 $1.82 $1.40 $623 $258 $369 U.S.
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