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Susan Hill Cochranco Fet0ility and Eduction What Do We Really Know? Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized LO58<ll \ -~__at_ ***HB90o.CS3 \ \ ~~Fertility and education: what do we really know?/ll SLC024040 WORLU BANK S1AI-F OCCASIONAL PAPERS 1 NUMBER TWENTY-SIX Public Disclosure Authorized World Bank Staff OccasionalPapers No. 1. Herman G. van der Tak, The Economic Choice between Hydro- electnc and Thermal Power Developments. No. 2. Ian de Weille, Quantification of Road User Savings. No. 3. Barend A. de Vnes, The Export Experience of Developing Coun- tries (out of print). No. 4. Hans A. Adler, Sector and Project Planning in Transportation. No. 5. A. A. Walters, The Economics of Road User Charges. No. 6. Benjamin B. King, Notes on the Mechanics of Growth and Debt. No. 7. I-lerman G. van der Tak and Jan de Weille, Reappraisal of a Road Project in Iran. No. 8. Jack Baranson, Automotive Industries in Developing Countries. No. 9. Ayhan Cilingiroglu, Manufacture of Hcavy Electrical Equipment in Developing Countries. No. 10. Shlomo Reutlinger, Techniques for Project Appraisal under Un- certainty. No. 11. Louis Y. Pouliquen, Risk Analysis in Project Appraisal. No. 12. George C. Zaidan, The Costs and Benefits of Family Planning Programs. No. 13. Herman G. van der Tak and Anandarup Ray, The Economic Benefits of Road Transport Projects (out of pnnt). No. 14. Hans Heinrich Thias and Martin Carnoy, Cost-Benefit Analysis in Education: A Case Study of Kenya. No. 15. Anthony Churchill, Road User Charges in Central America. No. 16. Deepak Lal, Methods of Project Analysis: A Review. No. 17. Kenji Takeuchi, Tropical Hardwood Trade in the Asia-Pacific Region. No. 18. Jean-Pierre Jallade, Public Expenditures on Education and In- come Distnbution in Colombia. No. 19. Enzo R. Grilli, The Future for Hard Fibers and Competition from Synthetics. No. 20. Alvin C. Egbert and Hyung M. Kim, A Development Model for the Agricultural Sector of Portugal. No. 21. Manuel Zymelman, The Economic Evaluation of Vocational Training Programs. No. 22. Shamsher Singh and others, Coffee, Tea, and Cocoa: Market Prospects and Development Lending. No. 23. Shlomo Reutlinger and Marcelo Selowsky, Malnutrition and Poverty: Magnitude and Policy Options. No. 24. Syamaprasad Gupta, A Model for Income Distnbution, Employ- ment, and Growth: A Case Study of Indonesia. No. 25. Rakesh Mohan, Urban Economic and Planning Models. No. 26. Susan Hill Cochrane, Fertility and Education: What Do We Really Know? WORLD BANK STAFF OCCASIONAL PAPERS 0 NUMBER TWENTY-SIX LIBRARY ECONOMIO DEVELOPM fl11U1 ORGANIZED BY THE INTERNATIONAL BAffK FOR 'i Y_b3UCTION AND DEVELOPMEHT p. Q. tS Susan Hill Cochraneb Fertility and Education What Do We Really Know? 61o0 Publishedfor the World Bank The Johns Hopkins University Press Baltimore and London LIBBABT ecoaomio DEVELOPMIU IXU1?W3 O4GAC3ZED BY TME INTERfATIOI3AL BAaK FOR "?,STRUCTIOld AND DEVELOPUIET C'4HIQGT9N, 0. C. 2a3 Copyright (D 1979 by The Intemational Bank for Reconstruction and Development THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433 U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America The views and interpretations in this book are those of the author and should not be attributed to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to any individual acting in their behalf. Library of Congress Cataloging in PublicationData Cochrane, Susan Hill, 1943- Fertility and education. (World Bank staff occasional papers ; 26) Bibliography: p. 153 Includes index. 1. Fertility, Human. 2. Education. 3. Family size. I. Title. II. Series. W HB903.F4C58 301.32'1 78-26070 ISBN 0-8018-2140-1 pbk. 'fit. Foreword ....... ~~~~. ....... .... ......... ....._._......... _............................... _.. I would like to explain why the World Bank does re- search work and why this research is published. We feel an obligation to look beyond the projects that we help finance toward the whole resource allocation of an economy and the effectiveness of the use of those resources. Our major concern, in dealings with member coun- tries, is that all scarce resources-including capital, skilled labor, enterprise, and know-how-should be used to their best advantage. We want to see policies that encourage appropriate increases in the supply of savings, whether domestic or international. Finally, we are required by our Articles, as well as by inclination, to use objective economic criteria in all our judgments. These are our preoccupations, and these, one way or another, are the subjects of most of our research work. Clearly, they are also the proper concern of anyone who is interested in promoting develop- ment, and so we seek to make our research papers widely available. In doing so, we have to take the risk of being misunderstood. Al- though these studies are published by the Bank, the views expressed and the methods explored should not necessarily be considered to represent the Bank's views or policies. Rather, they are offered as a modest contribution to the great discussion on how to advance the economic development of the underdeveloped world. ROBERT S. McNAMARA President The World Bank Contents Preface xi Introduction and Summary 3 Structure of the Study 5 Selection of Evidence 5 The Empirical Relation 6 Channels through Which Education Affects Fertility 7 Education and the Biological Supply of Children 8 Education and the Demand for Children 8 Education and Fertility Regulation 9 Summary 9 1. The Empincal Relation 1I Aggregate Studies 12 Individual Data 27 Summary and Conclusions 50 2. The Theoretical Determinantsof Fertility 53 Easterlin's Model of Fertility Determination 53 Direct, Indirect, and Joint Effects of Education on Fertility 55 The Schematic Model of Fertility Determination 56 Direction of the Relations between Intervening Variables and Fertility 64 The Hypothesized Effect of Education on Intervening Variables 70 Summary 77 vii Viii CONTENTS 3. Education and the Biological Supply of Children 79 Education and Marriage 80 Education and Fecundity 91 Education and Infant and Child Mortality 93 Summary 98 4. Education and the Demand for Children loo Factors Determining the Demand for Children 10o Preferences for Children (Ideal Family Size) 102 Perceived Costs and Benefits of Children 107 Desired Family Size 112 Summary 114 5. Education and the Regulation of Fertility 116 Attitudes toward Birth Control 117 Knowledge of Contraception and Education 117 Communication between Husband and Wife 123 Contraceptive Use 125 Summary 135 6. Summary and Implications 141 Summary 141 Implications for Further Research 148 Implications for Policy 151 Sources 1 53 Author Index 173 TABLES 1.1. Cross-Classification of Aggregate Studies, Arranged by the Method Used to Measure Education and Fertility i6 1.2. Cross-National Studies, Arranged by Methodology Used 18 1.3. Cross-Regional Studies, Arranged by Methodology Used 24 1.4. Cross-Tabular Studies on Age-Adjusted Fertility of the Educated and the Uneducated 34 1.5. Cross-Tabular Studies on the Relation between Age-Adjusted Fertility and Educational Level, by Illiteracy Rate 36 1.6. The Relation between Age-Adjusted Fertility and Level of Education, Classified by Illiteracy Rate 40 1.7. The Relation between Age-Adjusted Fertility and the Lowest Levels of Education, Classified by Illiteracy Rates 40 CONTENTS tX 1.8. Level of Education Associated with Maximum Reduction in Age-Adjusted Fertility, Classified by Illiteracy Rate 42 1.9. The Relation between Age-Adjusted Fcrtility and the Level of Education, Classificd-by Group Charactcristics 43 1.10. Multiple Regression Studies of Age-Adjusted Fertility and Educational Level, Controlling for Residence and Income 44 1.11. The Relation between Age-Adjusted Fertility and Level of Education, Classified by Illiteracy Ratc 49 1.12. The Relation between Age-Adjusted Fcrtility and the Level of Education, Classified by Group Characteristics 5O 2.1. Evidence on the Effect of Intervening Variables oni Completed Fertility 66 2.2. Effect of Education on Fertility through Intcrvening Variables 71 3.1. Evidence on Education and the Proportion Ever Married 8i 3.2. Evidence on Education and the Age of Marriage 84 3.3. Evidence on1Education and Infant and Child Mortality 94 4.1. Evidence on Education and Family Size Preferences (Ideal Family Sizc) 104 4.2. Mean Ideal Number of Sons for Married Women 20 to 39 Years Old, by Wife's Education and Urban-Rural Residence io6 4.3. Zero-Order Correlations between Education and Pcrceived Costs and Benefits of Children io8 4.4. Evidence on Education and Desired Family Size 113 5.1. Evidence on Education and Attitudes toward Fertility Regulation 118 5.2. Evidence ori Education and Knowledge of Contraception 120 5.3. Evidence on Education and Communication between Husband and Wife 124 5.4. Evidence on Education and the Use of Birth Control iz6 5.5. Percentage Currently Using Contraception for Married Women 20 to 39 Years Old, by Wife's Age and Education 128 5.6. Percentage Using Contraccption in West Africa, by Various Measures of Education 130 5.7. Percentagc Not Using Contraception of Those Who Want No More Childrcn, for Married Women 20 to 39 Years Old, by Wife's Age and Education 136 5.8. Multiple Correlations between the Index of the Use of Contraception and Scts of Explanatory Variables with Significant Partial Correlations from a Thirty-seven Variable Regression Analysis 138 6.1. Evidence Supporting the Relation between Education and Fertility through the Intervening Variables 146 X CONTENTS FIGURES 1.1. Multiple Effects of Individual Education 29 1.2. Effects of Individual and Community Education 30 1.3. Forms of Relations between Education and Fertility 39 2.1. Easterlin's Model of Fertility Determination 54 2.2. Model of the Intervening Variables Determining Fertility 6o 6.1. Model of the Effect of Education on Fertility through the Major Intervening Variables 145 Preface Throughout the past decade interest has been growing both in understanding the socioeconomic forces that cause fertility to fall during the process of economic development and in devising policies that might harness these forces to accelerate the decline.
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