Observational Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Formation Associated with Monsoon Gyres
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P1.24 a Typhoon Loss Estimation Model for China
P1.24 A TYPHOON LOSS ESTIMATION MODEL FOR CHINA Peter J. Sousounis*, H. He, M. L. Healy, V. K. Jain, G. Ljung, Y. Qu, and B. Shen-Tu AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA 1. INTRODUCTION the two. Because of its wind intensity (135 mph maximum sustained winds), it has been Nowhere 1 else in the world do tropical compared to Hurricane Katrina 2005. But Saomai cyclones (TCs) develop more frequently than in was short lived, and although it made landfall as the Northwest Pacific Basin. Nearly thirty TCs are a strong Category 4 storm and generated heavy spawned each year, 20 of which reach hurricane precipitation, it weakened quickly. Still, economic or typhoon status (cf. Fig. 1). Five of these reach losses were ~12 B RMB (~1.5 B USD). In super typhoon status, with windspeeds over 130 contrast, Bilis, which made landfall a month kts. In contrast, the North Atlantic typically earlier just south of where Saomai hit, was generates only ten TCs, seven of which reach actually only tropical storm strength at landfall hurricane status. with max sustained winds of 70 mph. Bilis weakened further still upon landfall but turned Additionally, there is no other country in the southwest and traveled slowly over a period of world where TCs strike with more frequency than five days across Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi in China. Nearly ten landfalling TCs occur in a and Yunnan Provinces. It generated copious typical year, with one to two additional by-passing amounts of precipitation, with large areas storms coming close enough to the coast to receiving more than 300 mm. -
Boundary Layer Structure in Typhoon Saomai (2006): Understanding the Effects of Exchange Coefficient
Vol.18 No.2 JOURNAL OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY June 2012 Article ID: 1006-8775(2012) 02-0195-12 BOUNDARY LAYER STRUCTURE IN TYPHOON SAOMAI (2006): UNDERSTANDING THE EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE COEFFICIENT 1 1 1 2 MING Jie (明 杰) , SONG Jin-jie (宋金杰) , CHEN Bao-jun (陈宝君) , WANG Ke-fa (王可发) (1. Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather and School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 China; 2. Climate Center, Meteorological Bureau of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210008 China) Abstract: Recent studies have shown that surface fluxes and exchange coefficients are particularly important to models attempting to simulate the evolution and maintenance of hurricanes or typhoons. By using an advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) modeling system, this work aims to study the impact of modified exchange coefficient on the intensity and structures of typhoon Saomai (2006) over the western North Pacific. Numerical experiments with the modified and unmodified exchange coefficients are used to investigate the intensity and structure of the storm, especially the structures of the boundary layer within the storm. Results show that, compared to the unmodified experiment, the simulated typhoon in the modified experiment has a bigger deepening rate after 30-h and is the same as the observation in the last 12-h. The roughness is leveled off when wind speed is greater than 30 m/s. The momentum exchange coefficient (CD) and enthalpy exchange coefficient (CK) are leveled off too, and CD is decreased more than CK when wind speed is greater than 30 m/s. More sensible heat flux and less latent heat flux are produced. -
China Date: 8 January 2007
Refugee Review Tribunal AUSTRALIA RRT RESEARCH RESPONSE Research Response Number: CHN31098 Country: China Date: 8 January 2007 Keywords: China – Taiwan Strait – 2006 Military exercises – Typhoons This response was prepared by the Country Research Section of the Refugee Review Tribunal (RRT) after researching publicly accessible information currently available to the RRT within time constraints. This response is not, and does not purport to be, conclusive as to the merit of any particular claim to refugee status or asylum. Questions 1. Is there corroborating information about military manoeuvres and exercises in Pingtan? 2. Is there any information specifically about the military exercise there in July 2006? 3. Is there any information about “Army day” on 1 August 2006? 4. What are the aquatic farming/fishing activities carried out in that area? 5. Has there been pollution following military exercises along the Taiwan Strait? 6. The delegate makes reference to independent information that indicates that from May until August 2006 China particularly the eastern coast was hit by a succession of storms and typhoons. The last one being the hardest to hit China in 50 years. Could I have information about this please? The delegate refers to typhoon Prapiroon. What information is available about that typhoon? 7. The delegate was of the view that military exercises would not be organised in typhoon season, particularly such a bad one. Is there any information to assist? RESPONSE 1. Is there corroborating information about military manoeuvres and exercises in Pingtan? 2. Is there any information specifically about the military exercise there in July 2006? There is a minor naval base in Pingtan and military manoeuvres are regularly held in the Taiwan Strait where Pingtan in located, especially in the June to August period. -
Impact of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation on the Tracks of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific
Vol.20 No.1 JOURNAL OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY March 2014 Article ID: 1006-8775(2014) 01-0026-09 IMPACT OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION ON THE TRACKS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC 1 2 TAO Li (陶 丽) , LI Shuang-jun (李双君) (1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044 China; 2. Wuhan Central Meteorological Observatory, Wuhan 430074 China) Abstract: In this work, an index of tropical 20-90 d oscillation (intra-seasonal oscillation; ISO) in the western North Pacific (WNP) was determined via the combined empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method using daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) field data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), daily wind field data (at 850 hPa) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and referencing the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) index proposed by Wheeler and Hendon. An in-depth investigation was conducted to examine the impact of the ISO on changes in tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the WNP during different ISO phases. The research results indicate that during the easterly phase of the ISO, under the impact of the northeastern airflow of anti-cyclonic ISO circulation, the easterly airflow south of the western Pacific subtropical high is relatively weak, and TCs generated in the subtropical high tend to change their tracks east of 140°E; during the westerly phase, there is a relatively high probability that TCs change their tracks west of 140°E. This work also analyzed the ISO flow field situation in cases of typhoons and determined that the track of a tropical cyclone will experience a sudden right turn when the center of the ISO cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation coincides with that of the cyclone. -
Assimilation of GBVTD-Retrieved Winds from Single-Doppler Radar for Short-Term Forecasting of Super Typhoon Saomai (0608) at Landfall
Assimilation of GBVTD-Retrieved Winds from Single-Doppler Radar for Short-Term Forecasting of Super Typhoon Saomai (0608) at Landfall Kun Zhao1, 2, Ming Xue2,3 and Wen-Chau Lee4 1Key Laboratory for Mesoscale Severe Weather/MOE and School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210093, China 2Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms and 3School of Meteorology University of Oklahoma, Norman Oklahoma 73072 4Earth Observing Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research*, Boulder, CO 80307 July, 2010 Revised and resubmitted in April 2011 Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society Corresponding author address: Ming Xue Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd, Norman OK 73072 [email protected] *The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. Abstract A single-Doppler wind retrieval method called the Ground-Based Velocity-Track Display technique (GBVTD) has been developed in recent years to retrieve horizontal circulations of tropical cyclones. The technique is able to retrieve axisymmetric tangential and radial winds, asymmetric tangential winds for wavenumbers 1 through 3, and along-beam mean winds in tropical cyclones. It has been successfully applied to tropical cyclone monitoring and warning. This study explores, for the first time, the assimilation of GBVTD-retrieved winds into a tropical cyclone prediction model, and examines its impact relative to that of directly assimilated radial velocity data. Super Typhoon Saomai (2006), the most intense landfalling typhoon ever recorded in China, is chosen as the test case, and data from the coastal operational radar at Wenzhou, China are used. The ARPS 3DVAR system is used to assimilate either the radial velocity data directly or the GBVTD-retrieved winds, at 30-min intervals for 2 hours. -
Summary of the 2000 NW Pacific Typhoon Season and Verification of Authors’ Seasonal Forecasts
Summary of the 2000 NW Pacific Typhoon Season and Verification of Authors’ Seasonal Forecasts Issued 18th January, 2001 (Minor Ammendments: 22nd January, 2001) Produced in collaboration with the Met. Office by Drs Paul Rockett, Mark Saunders and Tony Hamilton Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre, UCL (University College London), UK. Executive Summary A year with slightly below average activity predicted precisely for basin numbers and for Japan strike numbers The Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) consortium presents a validation of their pre-season NW Pacific forecast for tropical storm, typhoon and intense typhoon numbers, and for Japanese tropical storm and typhoon strike numbers. Issued on the 26th May 2000, the pre-season forecast covered the entire NW Pacific typhoon season from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2000. We show that the mean forecast values were all within 1-standard error of the observed totals, and for tropical storms, typhoons, intense typhoons, and Japanese landfalling typhoons, the forecasts were exactly correct. Features of the 2000 NW Pacific Season • The 2000 NW Pacific typhoon season was slightly below average with 25 tropical storms, 14 typhoons and 7 intense typhoons. These figures compare to the 1971-2000 climatology values of 27.2, 17.0 and 8.2 respectively. It was the 3rd consecutive year with below average activity. • Japan was affected by 4 tropical storms, 2 of which were of typhoon strength. Typhoon Saomai caused the most damage, producing record rainfall (23 inches in 24 hours at Nagoya) and considerable flooding. It was the 2nd consecutive year with below average tropical storm strikes on Japan. -
Uniqueness of the ERS Scatterometer for Nowcasting and Typhoon Forecasting
Uniqueness of the ERS Scatterometer for nowcasting and typhoon forecasting Paul Snoeij§, Evert Attema§, Hans Hersbach†, Ad Stoffelen¤, Raffaele Crapolicchio##, Pascal Lecomte#, §ESA-ESTEC †ECMWF ¤KNMI #ESA-ESRIN ##SERCO s.p.a. , [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Abstract - Since the launch of the European Remote Sensing Microwave Instrument and was launched in 1991, and was Satellite ERS-1 in 1991, surface wind-vector observations derived followed in 1995 by a similar instrument on ERS-2. from space-borne scatterometer measurements have been The ERS Scatterometer is a three antennae radar working at available over the global oceans continuously. Currently, space- C-band. This frequency is very sensitive to the sea surface borne scatterometer wind products are based on the QSCAT-1 roughness, which is related with the wind field by using an model function for the Ku-band radar frequency (QuikSCAT) and the CMOD5 model function, recently been developed at appropriate geophysical model function (GMF). The returned ECMWF and KNMI, for C-band (ERS-2 and the future ASCAT echoes are downloaded to the ground stations whenever they series). The dynamic range of ERS derived winds now extends to are in the visibility of the satellite. The processors installed at at least 35 m/s. The accuracy of the wind retrieval in combination each ground station retrieve the backscattering coefficients with the minimal sensitivity of the C-band frequency for rain (three sigma naught for three different azimuth angles) from contamination makes the ERS scatterometer an unique the echoes with a resolution of 50x50 kilometers and sample instrument for weather research, and the improved ambiguity on a grid of 25x25 kilometers. -
The Meteorologically Abnormal Year of 2006 and Natural Disasters in the Philippines
378 by Graciano P. Yumul Jr.1,2, Nathaniel A. Cruz2, Nathaniel T. Servando2, and Carla B. Dimalanta1 The meteorologically abnormal year of 2006 and natural disasters in the Philippines 1 National Institute of Geological Sciences, College of Science, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines. E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] 2 Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, Department of Science and Technology, Quezon City, Philippines. In the early part of 2006 the Philippines was hit by a La Niña event which brought floods, flashfloods and landslides. The most signifi- cant event was the February 2006 landslide that covered the whole community of Guin- saugon, in Southern Leyte, resulting in 154 deaths with 973 people still missing. Another rare event was the simultaneous presence of two tropical cyclones inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in August— Tropical Depression Bopha and Tropical Storm Saomai—that enhanced the southwest monsoon. With the strong winds and high waves associated with the southwest mon- soon, an oil tanker, the M/T Solar 1, sank, resulting in the worst oil spill the country has ever suffered. Lastly, with a weak El Niño phenomenon forming in the Pacific Ocean and affecting the Philippines, a destructive typhoon, Xangsane, made a multi-landfall before hitting Metropolitan Manila. This was followed by the landfall of three superty- phoons—Cimaron, Chebi and Durian—during the last quarter of the year, bringing tremen- dous destruction of life and property. The Figure 1 The country's natural hazard woes are compounded by major weather occurrence of these weather events are attrib- events that bring rains at different times of the year. -
Member Report
MEMBER REPORT ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee 42nd Session 25–29 January 2010 Singapore People’s Republic of China 1 CONTENTS I. Overview of tropical cyclones which have affected/impacted Member’s area since the last Typhoon Committee Session II. Summary of progress in Key Result Areas 1. Progress on Key Result Area 1 2. Progress on Key Result Area 2 3. Progress on Key Result Area 3 4. Progress on Key Result Area 4 5. Progress on Key Result Area 5 6. Progress on Key Result Area 6 7. Progress on Key Result Area 7 III. Resource Mobilization Activities IV. Update of Members’ Working Groups representatives 2 I. Overview of tropical cyclones which have affected/impacted Member’s area in 2009 In 2009, totally 9 tropical cyclones landed on China. They were severe tropical storm Linfa (0903), tropical storm Nangka (0904) and Soudelor (0905), Typhoon Molave (0906), tropical storm Goni (0907), typhoon Morakot (0908), tropical storm Mujigae (0913), typhoon Koppu (0915) and super typhoon Parma (0917) respectively. 1. Meteorological Assessment (highlighting forecasting issues/impacts) (1) LINFA (0903) LINFA formed as a tropical depression over South China Sea at 06:00 UTC 17 June 2009. It developed into a tropical storm and a severe tropical storm at 06:00 UTC 18 June and 03:00 UTC 20 June respectively. LINFA started to move northwards. As it was gradually approaching to the coast of the Fujian province, its intensity was greatly reduced to be a tropical storm category. LINFA landed on Jinjiang of the Fujian province, China at 12:30 UTC 21 June with the maximum wind at 23m/s near its centre. -
Prediction of a Typhoon Track Using a Generative Adversarial Network And
www.nature.com/scientificreports OPEN Prediction of a typhoon track using a generative adversarial network and satellite images Received: 25 September 2018 Mario Rüttgers , Sangseung Lee , Soohwan Jeon & Donghyun You Accepted: 29 March 2019 Tracks of typhoons are predicted using a generative adversarial network (GAN) with satellite images Published: xx xx xxxx as inputs. Time series of satellite images of typhoons which occurred in the Korea Peninsula in the past are used to train the neural network. The trained GAN is employed to produce a 6-hour-advance track of a typhoon for which the GAN was not trained. The predicted track image of a typhoon favorably identifes the future location of the typhoon center as well as the deformed cloud structures. Errors between predicted and real typhoon centers are measured quantitatively in kilometers. An averaged error of 95.6 km is achieved for tested 10 typhoons. Predicting sudden changes of the track in westward or northward directions is identifed as a challenging task, while the prediction is signifcantly improved, when velocity felds are employed along with satellite images. Every year tropical cyclones cause death and damage in many places around the world. Cyclones are formed when water at the sea surface becomes warm, evaporates, and rises in a form of clouds, and while it cools down, the con- densation releases strong energy in a form of winds. Rotation of the earth gives a cyclone its spinning motion. At the center usually a hole forms, which is called an eye of the cyclone. At the eye, the pressure is low and energetic clouds and winds get attracted. -
Observational Analysis of Sudden Tropical Cyclone Track Changes in the Vicinity of the East China Sea
3012 JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES VOLUME 68 Observational Analysis of Sudden Tropical Cyclone Track Changes in the Vicinity of the East China Sea LIGUANG WU,HUIJUN ZONG, AND JIA LIANG Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China (Manuscript received 24 May 2010, in final form 16 December 2010) ABSTRACT An observational analysis of observed sudden typhoon track changes is conducted with a focus on the underlying mechanism and the possible role of slowly varying low-frequency flows. Four typhoons that took a generally northwestward track prior to sharply turning northeastward in the vicinity of the East China Sea are investigated. It is found that the sudden track changes occurred near the center of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO)- scale cyclonic circulation or at the bifurcation point of the steering flows at 700 hPa, and they were all associated with a well-developed quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBW)-scale gyre. Calculation of vorticity advection suggests that the peripheral ridging resulting from the interaction between the typhoons and the flows on the MJO and QBW scales can compress the typhoon circulation, leading to an area of high winds to the east or south of the typhoon center. The enhanced synoptic-scale winds shifted the typhoons northward and placed them in a northeastward orbit under the steering of the flows associated with the Pacific subtropical high. The sudden track change can be likened to the maneuvering of satellite orbit change in that the enhanced synoptic-scale winds act as a booster rocket to shift the typhoons northward to the southwesterly steering flows. -
Tropical Storm Sarika Merging in Typhoon Songda Circulation By
Disaster Advances Vol. 8 (1) January (2015) Tropical Storm Sarika merging in Typhoon Songda Circulation by Strong Wind and Sufficient Moisture Transportation Choi Hyo* and Lee Mi Sook Atmospheric and Oceanic Disaster Research Institute, Dalim Apt. 209 ho, Songjungdong, Gangneung 210-140, KOREA *[email protected] Abstract classes of typhoon by Hong Kong Observatory (HKO)1 The destruction of a small tropical storm pulled by a such as Super Typhoon, Severe Typhoon, Typhoon, Severe stronger typhoon was investigated using GOES-9 IR Tropical Storm, Tropical Storm and Tropical Depression on satellite images, weather maps and numerically different maximum sustained wind speed for 10 minutes near the typhoon centre recommended by World calculated moisture fluxes and streamlines with strong 2 Meteorological Organization (WMO) . wind bands by a meteorological model - the UM (British Unified Model) adopted by Korean On the other hand, the classification of tropical cyclones Meteorological Administration (UM-KMA) from suggested by Korean Meteorological Administration3 September 5 through 8, 2004. When Typhoon Songda- defined four simplified classifications such as Typhoon, TY 0418 of 940hPa with a maximum surface wind Severe Tropical Storm, Tropical Storm and Tropical speed of 80kts moved north-northwestward with its Depression depending on surface atmospheric pressure and slow moving speed of 6kt at 00:00 LST, September 6, wind speed near the typhoon centre. Slightly differently, another severe Tropical Storm Sarika-STS 0419 of Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical 980hPa with a maximum surface wind speed of 55kts Services Administration (PAGASA) also classifies as Typhoon, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression and was detected at 142.7°E and 19.3°N, showing its Tropical Disturbance, depending on maximum wind speed westward movement of 14kts.