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A JOURNAL OF SOCIETY FOR POLICY STUDIES SEPTEMBER 16,, 2018 II VOLLUME 2 IISSUE 18 IINNDDIIAA RR EEVVII EEWW &&AANNAALLYYSSIISS

COVER STORY and : New paradigms across the Arabian Sea

INDIA AND US: PRIORITISING A US, AND BALANCING ALSO READ RELATIONSHIP NATIONAL INTERESTS COVER STORY Changing global dynamics bring Riyadh, closer MD. MUDDASSIR India and Saudi Arabia are two G-20 to from Riyadh, especially after QUAMAR economies with ambitious growth targets. the February 2010 Riyadh visit of Prime To achieve this, New Delhi and Riyadh look Minister Manmohan Singh. It included the at each other as important partners. India extradition of Fasih Mohammad, a Lashkar- needs the Saudi oil for energy security and e-Taiba operative with suspected looks for Saudi investments. Saudi Arabia involvement in the 2008 Mumbai attacks, in sees India as a promising market and October 2012. recognizes its rising global profile. This Modi’s assumption of power in May 2014 mutuality of interests has led to forging of in New Delhi and the change of guard in strong bilateral relations with a focus on Riyadh in January 2015 gave a new attracting two-way flow of investments and momentum to bilateral ties. With a distinct building security ties to combat religious working style, the two leaderships extremism. developed a strong personal rapport and a It came to the fore during the April 2016 better political understanding of each visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the other’s concerns. kingdom. The visit was followed by a Firstly, commercial relations have been number of important developments thriving. Business ties started to grow soon including the signing of the framework after the January 2006 visit of King Abdullah agreement for the USD 44 billion Ratnagiri as chief guest for India’s Republic Day Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. (RRPCL) celebrations and reached a high of USD 48.6 in June 2018 and the permission in March billion in 2013-14. It dropped to USD 25 to Air India to fly over Saudi airspace for its billion in 2016-17, mainly due to low oil flights between New Delhi and Tel Aviv. prices and slow international trade, but has Modi’s assumption In many ways, however, New Delhi and again seen a growth of 9.5 per cent to reach of power in May Riyadh are unlikely partners. The two USD 27.5 billion in 2017-18. Saudi Arabia 2014 in New Delhi adhere to different political philosophies has been among India’s top five trading and hold contrasting world views. This was partners and one of the top suppliers of and the change of an underlying factor preventing forging of crude oil, playing a significant role in its guard in Riyadh in close ties even after the end of the Cold War. energy security. January 2015 gave a Despite significant business transactions With efforts to attract more investments, new momentum to and energy trade since the 1990s, India and FDI inflow from the Kingdom has seen a Saudi Arabia remained lukewarm to the significant jump in the last four years; bilateral ties. With opportunities for development of political between June 2014 and June 2018 India a distinct working ties. Indian apprehension about Saudi- received USD 163 million in investments style, the two relations was a major hurdle. from the Kingdom. The situation started to change after the Further, major Saudi companies, leaderships 2008 Mumbai attacks. Indian security including Aramco and SABIC, are developed a strong agencies recognized the vulnerability of its expanding their businesses in India. personal rapport coastline and significance of developing ties Simultaneously, the number of Indian and a better with Gulf countries for preventing future companies with operations and incursions. Saudi Arabia, facing internal investments in Saudi market is on the rise, political security challenges from Islamist terrorist with many developing joint businesses with understanding of cells, came across as a willing partner. A Saudi ventures. each other’s degree of mutuality was developed in Secondly, the growing scourge of fighting terrorism and resulted in extremism and religious radicalism posing concerns deportation or extradition of a number of a threat to security and stability in the Gulf, wanted criminals and suspected terrorists especially since the rise of the Islamic State 18

INDIA REVIEW & ANALYSIS I SEPTEMBER 16, 2018 COVER STORY

has resulted in Indian concerns about Cooperation (JCDC) met in New Delhi and External Affairs Minister Sushma cross-border terror from Pakistan being identified “credible activities” towards Swaraj is welcomed by Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Adel al- taken more seriously by Gulf monarchies bolstering ties. Jubeir at the Ministry of Foreign including Saudi Arabia. This has led to India has opened up to the idea of Affairs building in Riyadh in February growing cooperation between security and inviting officers from the Royal Saudi Armed 2018 intelligence agencies of the two countries. Forces for training at its military training India’s National Security Adviser Ajit institutions. The first group of Saudi cadets Doval and special envoy for counter came to India in December 2017 to join a terrorism Asif Ibrahim have made several three-year training program at the National trips to Riyadh and held meetings with top Defence Academy (NDA) in Pune. Saudi officials. The degree of understanding This new phase in Indo-Saudi relations is on terrorism was reflected when Riyadh significant for a variety of reasons, but came forward to condemn the terrorist primarily because of the Pakistan factor. attacks in Pathankot (January) and Uri Riyadh and have been (September) in 2017. Notably, the latter was traditional allies and continue to have an attack on an Indian military brigade in brotherly relations. Kashmir, recognized by many as a conflict India’s relations with Pakistan, on the zone. other hand, are currently at their worst in Thirdly, defence cooperation is on the recent years. How is it that, in spite of this, rise. In November 2017, the India-Saudi Indo-Saudi relations are developing a Arabia Joint Committee on Defence strong partnership? This can mainly be 19

INDIA REVIEW & ANALYSIS I SEPTEMBER 16, 2018 COVER STORY

India's Petroleum, Natural Gas and attributed to a changed regional Traditionally, people-to-people contacts Skill Development Minister geopolitical dynamics. between India and Saudi Arabia have been Dharmendra Pradhan meets with Saudi Arabia's Energy, Industry and With intense power struggles and spread strong because of a large Indian migrant Mineral Resources Minister Khalid of transnational terror in West , security population and annual Haj pilgrimage, but Al-Falih, who is also chairman of has emerged as a major concern and the government-level efforts to widen the scope , in New Delhi in confidence in the US security umbrella, of bilateral ties had remained limited. The February 2018 especially in the Persian Gulf, received a current phase in bilateral ties is a result of significant beating during the so-called the readiness of the leaderships in Riyadh . With the growing strategic and New Delhi to set aside the problem influence of Iran and the Russian entry, the areas and build on areas of mutual interest, Gulf monarchies are looking to forge ties namely two-way flow of investments, with emerging powers, especially in Asia, to security and defence cooperation. ensure economic prosperity and political Prime Minister Modi and Crown Prince stability. Muhammad bin Salman recognize the For India, this provides an opportunity. opportunities offered by the geopolitical New Delhi is actively soliciting foreign developments and are harnessing them to investments to revive economic growth and forge strong bilateral ties. the Gulf countries have the appetite for big (The author is Associate Fellow, IDSA, investments. Further, India has the chance New Delhi. and co-author of India’s Saudi to highlight the problem of jihadism it has Policy: Bridge to the Future /Palgrave been facing from across the border. Macmillan) 20

INDIA REVIEW & ANALYSIS I SEPTEMBER 16, 2018