Costs of Financing US Federal Debt: 1791-1933∗
Costs of Financing US Federal Debt: 1791-1933∗ George Hall,† Jonathan Payne,‡ Thomas J. Sargent,§ Bálint Szőke¶ August 26, 2021 Abstract We use computational Bayesian methods to estimate parameters of a statistical model of gold, greenback, and real yield curves for US federal debt from 1791 to 1933. Posterior probability coverage intervals indicate more uncertainty about yields during periods in which data are especially sparse (e.g., during the administration of Andrew Jackson who, unlike his admirer President Donald Trump, paid off all US federal debt). We detect substantial discrepancies between our approximate yield curves and standard historical series on yields on US federal debt, especially during War of 1812 and Civil War surges in government expenditures that were accompanied by units of account ambiguities. We use our approximate yield curves to describe how long it took to achieve Alexander Hamilton’s goal of reducing default risk premia in US yields by building a reputation for servicing debts as promised. We infer that during the Civil War suspension of convertibility of greenback dollars into gold dollars, US creditors anticipated a rapid post war return to convertibility at par, but that after the war they anticipated a slower return. JEL classification: E31, E43, G12, N21, N41 Key words: Big data, default premia, yield curve, units of account, gold standard, government debt, Hamil- tonian Monte Carlo, Julia, DynamicHMC.jl, pricing errors, specification analysis. ∗We thank Clemens Lehner for outstanding research assistance and Min Wei and audiences at the Minnesota Workshop in Macroeconomic Theory and a University of Sydney seminar for suggestions. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Board or its staff.
[Show full text]