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Newsletter OCTOBER 2015 TRADE FINANCE Newsletter OCTOBER 2015 TRADE FINANCE Dear customer, Autumn started with a mixed economic outlook and continued geopolitical uncertainty, and a careful analysis of risk and opportunity is necessary as our customers continue their current business flows and approach new business opportunities. An element of agility and adaptability is needed, while CSR and global citizenship must be taken into consideration. This newsletter will touch on some of these topics. SØREN HAUGAARD In our last newsletter, I wrote about the opportunities that new markets offer, Global Head of Trade & Supply Chain Finance focusing on the ASEAN region. In this newsletter, we will zoom in on Africa. As Allan von Mehren, Chief Analyst, points out, there are now 17 countries on the continent with high and sustained growth rates. The population is expected to grow fast and the middle class even faster. This creates opportunities but also carries risk, as business cultures are very different, the infrastructure is still fragile and corruption is widespread. All statistics show that the Nordic business climate has a reputation for being fair and transparent and for adhering to acknowledged CSR principles. The same cannot be said for most emerging markets. Financial crime is a threat to business, and being alert and diligent has become a key point of business governance. Jes Vinther Jørgensen, Head of Financial Crime, explains what this is all about, what to look out for and how to manage the risks associated with financial crime. He also explains how Danske Bank helps our customers avoid being trapped in fraudulent trade patterns. With emerging economies coming of age, new opportunities appear within the current trade corridors and the established markets. We carefully monitor these changes and will update you on what we observe. Adding to that, we also participate in EuroFinance, Sibos and the Nordic Trade Finance conference during this fall. In the next newsletter, we will comment on our observations and share our thinking with you. I hope you will enjoy our newsletter and look forward to meeting you and getting your feedback. Søren Haugaard OCTOBER 2015 TRADE FINANCE PAGE 2 Sub-Saharan Africa: The fastest growing middle-class in the world By Allan von Mehren While most of the world has been struggling to grow over the past decade, one region has bucked the trend and seen high and sustained growth. Sub-Saharan Africa – a region marred by poverty and hopelessness for centuries – finally found a track of ALLAN VON MEHREN high growth and improving living standards 15-20 years ago. From 2000-2015, Chief Analyst and Head economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa averaged 5.4%, and the region has steered of International Macro through several crises in the world economy during this period without being thrown at Danske Bank into a debt spiral, as we have seen so many times before. Although still the poorest place on earth, Sub-Saharan Africa has started to unleash the potential for climbing more steps on the development ladder. This takes more Africans out of extreme poverty and into the middle class every day. Whilst this is a very encouraging story in itself, it also creates growing opportunities for doing business. According to McKinsey Global Institute, consumer spending in all of Africa is set to rise from USD 860 billion in 2008 to USD 1.4 trillion in 2020. The famous billionaire investor George Soros has coined Africa as the light in the dark in the world economy and has highlighted Africa as the region with the fastest-growing middle class in the world. According to African Development Bank, the middle class of all Africa has reached 350 million people (more people than live in the US), and this number is expected to rise by more than 15 million every year in the coming decades to reach 600 million in 2030. Apart from consumers, other areas of opportunity are infrastructure, agriculture and resources which are all likely to grow strongly over the coming decades – as has been the norm in countries that start a catching-up process. The main factor behind Africa’s new path has been a gradual move towards democracy throughout the region. After being run by autocratic dictators for decades since independence from European powers in the 1960s, the end of the cold war with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 gave rise to a development towards democracy. As a result, economic governance in Africa has finally improved and breathed air into entrepreneurship, investments and more stability-oriented economic policies. The recent election in Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria, was testimony to the improvement in democracy. In April, Nigerians for the first time ejected an incumbent president at the ballot box in a broadly peaceful election with Muhammadu Buhari taking over power from Goodluck Jonathan. Adding to the positive development in Sub-Saharan Africa are the sharp decline in the number of civil wars, significant debt relief, more investments in education and infrastructure and the spread of mobile technology. A wide group of countries seem to have passed the point at which rising growth begins to attract new investments that in turn lay the foundation for further development and a rise in incomes. In his book Emerging Africa, economist Steven OCTOBER 2015 TRADE FINANCE PAGE 3 Radelet identifies 17 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that have broken into an era • The population in Sub- of high and sustained growth. Some of the success stories of recent years include Saharan Africa is expected Ghana, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda, Mozambique and Nigeria, countries that were to rise from 920 million in previously mostly known for civil wars, famines and, in Rwanda’s case, the genocide 2014 to 1.4 billion in 2030 in 1994. • From 2000 to 2015, the While overall a very positive story, the picture remains very diverse in Africa. Some average growth rate in countries, such as Zimbabwe, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Niger, Sub-Saharan Africa was are still left behind in extreme poverty with low or no growth. South Africa has 5.4% struggled in recent years, with low growth and a significant current account deficit due to poor economic management and falling commodity prices. • The middle class in Africa is estimated to rise from 350 million today to 600 Doing business in Africa is clearly not without challenges. Corruption is still million in 2030 widespread and with countries being young democracies, political stability remains fragile in most countries. Despite being on an overall positive track, Kenya has • Annual foreign direct in- witnessed turmoil in connection with its past two elections in 2007 and 2013. Other vestments in Sub-Saharan challenges include poor infrastructure and cultural differences. In the short term, Africa have increased from big commodity exporters – not least the oil rich countries Nigeria and Angola – face USD 6.8 billion to USD challenges from the sharp decline in oil prices lately. This is putting massive pressure 44.8 billion in 2013 on their budgets, as revenues dwindle and investments in the oil industry subside. However, the medium to long-term outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa has never been better, and the potential for taking over as the favoured place for direct investment from Asia and the other “Emerging Markets” looks increasingly good. “It requires stamina and patience to exploit the opportunities in Sub-Saharan Africa, but with a very positive long-term outlook, it may well be worth it”. Six biggest economies in Sub-Saharan Africa Share of Averrage 2014 GDP Population Commodity SSA GDPgrowth per capita, (mn) dependency economy* 2000-2014 USD, PPP** Nigeria 31% 7.7% 6030 179 34.5 South Africa 21% 3.0% 13050 53 2.2 Angola 5% 9.2% 7200 22 53.8 Ethiopia 4% 10.8% 1590 97 -2.8 Kenya 4% 4.3% 3080 46 -6.2 Ghana 3% 6.5% 4130 26 12.7 Notes: SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa, PPP = adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity ***Commodity exports, net, % of GDP Robust growth has been sustained for 15 years in Sub-Saharan Africa GDP, annual growth % World Sub-Saharan Africa IMF forecast 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 OCTOBER 2015 TRADE FINANCE PAGE 4 Fighting financial crime By Jes Vinther Jørgensen, Head of Group Financial Crime Regulators, police, tax authorities, media and society as such pay more and more attention to financial crime. And with good reason. Financial crime produces a massive flow of illicit transactions that threaten the integrity of the financial sector as well as the revenues of governments. For those reasons, society as well as the JES VINTHER financial sector itself want to implement reasonable measures to minimise the use of JØRGENSEN financial sectors products and services for illicit transactions. Head of Group Financial Crime at Danske Bank At Danske Bank, we actually see ourselves – together with our network of correspondent banks – as a key component in combating illicit transaction flows, not only because we share society’s ambition – to minimise the use of our products and services for illicit transactions – but also because severe fines have been imposed on several of the major banks for non-compliance in this area. We place great importance on mitigating the risk of being used for financial crime. We do this by acting with integrity and are very dependent on collaboration not only between the various internal departments of Danske Bank but also with our customers. Of course, we also hope that our efforts help our customers ensure that they are not exposed to fraud. SO WHAT DO WE Every day, a huge number of our employees fight behind the scenes, in some way or ACTUALLY DO? another, to reduce financial crime.
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