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Explaining Iran's Foreign Policy, 1979-2009

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Explaining Iran's Foreign Policy, 1979-2009 View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2010-12 Explaining Iran's foreign policy, 1979-2009 Grubb, Chris. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/5051 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS EXPLAINING IRAN’S FOREIGN POLICY, 1979–2009 by Chris Grubb December 2010 Thesis Advisor: Abbas Kadhim Second Reader: Mohammed Hafez Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED December 2010 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Explaining Iran’s Foreign Policy, 1979–2009 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR Chris Grubb 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number _____N.A.______. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) This thesis examines Iranian foreign policy from 1979 to 2009. Five different explanatory models are evaluated using four well-documented historical examples. The goal of the project is to determine which, if any, of these five commonly used explanatory models possesses the most promise as a predictive tool for policymakers and intelligence analysts. Iranian involvement in the Lebanon Hostage Crisis, their support to Hezbollah, anti-Israel policy, and ongoing nuclear development program provide the context for evaluating realist, ideological, factionalist, constructivist, and two-level game theory models for explaining Iranian foreign policy. Aspects of each theory are assimilated by two-level game theory in such a way as to allow a large degree of explanatory flexibility. Iterative competition among the various interests of the state and political factions, as well as ideological and cultural factors, contribute significantly to each of the historical examples. Two-level game theory is identified as the model possessing the most promise for explaining Iranian state behavior during the period under study. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Iran, international relations theory, factionalism, constructivism, realism, two- 15. NUMBER OF level game theory, Iran/Contra, Lebanese Hostage Crisis, Hezbollah, nuclear proliferation PAGES 79 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited EXPLAINING IRAN’S FOREIGN POLICY, 1979–2009 Chris Grubb Major, United States Marine Corps B.A., University of Washington, 1998 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDIES (MIDDLE EAST, SOUTH ASIA, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December 2010 Author: Chris Grubb Approved by: Dr. Abbas Kadhim Thesis Advisor Dr. Mohammed Hafez Second Reader Dr. Harold A. Trinkunas Chairman, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT This thesis examines Iranian foreign policy from 1979 to 2009. Five different explanatory models are evaluated using four well-documented historical examples. The goal of the project is to determine which, if any, of these five commonly used explanatory models possesses the most promise as a predictive tool for policymakers and intelligence analysts. Iranian involvement in the Lebanon Hostage Crisis, their support to Hezbollah, anti-Israel policy, and ongoing nuclear development program provide the context for evaluating realist, ideological, factionalist, constructivist, and two-level game theory models for explaining Iranian foreign policy. Aspects of each theory are assimilated by two-level game theory in such a way as to allow a large degree of explanatory flexibility. Iterative competition among the various interests of the state and political factions, as well as ideological and cultural factors, contribute significantly to each of the historical examples. Two-level game theory is identified as the model possessing the most promise for explaining Iranian state behavior during the period under study. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. MAKING SENSE OF IRAN’S FOREIGN POLICY, 1979–2009...........................1 A. RESEARCH QUESTION ...............................................................................1 B. WHY EXPLAIN IRAN’S FOREIGN POLICY?..........................................1 C. PROBLEMS AND HYPOTHESES ...............................................................2 D. LITERATURE REVIEW ...............................................................................3 E. THESIS OVERVIEW .....................................................................................7 II. LEBANON HOSTAGE CRISIS.................................................................................9 A. HISTORY OF THE CRISIS...........................................................................9 B. THEORETICAL EXPLANATIONS...........................................................20 III. IRANIAN SUPPORT TO HEZBOLLAH...............................................................25 A. HISTORY .......................................................................................................25 B. THEORETICAL EXPLANATIONS...........................................................32 IV. IRAN’S ANTI-ISRAEL POLICY............................................................................35 A. HISTORY .......................................................................................................36 B. THEORETICAL EXPLANATIONS...........................................................43 V. IRAN’S NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM.............................................47 A. HISTORY .......................................................................................................47 B. THEORETICAL EXPLANATIONS...........................................................49 VI. CONCLUSION: AN ARGUMENT FOR THE BEST EXPLANATORY FIT...59 BIBLIOGRAPHY..................................................................................................................61 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST .........................................................................................65 vii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK viii LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 23 May Movement – Katami’s reformist coalition ACC – Association of Combatant Clergy (Islamic Left) AIPAC – American Israel Public Affairs Committee AUB – American University, Beirut CIA – Central Intelligence Agency Dawa – al-Da’wa al-Islamiyyah IRGC – Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (Pasdaran, Sepah) IDF – Israeli Defense Forces ILSA – Iran / Libya Sanctions Act Kargozaran – Executives of Reconstruction Majles – Iranian Parliament MEK – Mujahadeen-e Khalq MNF – Multinational Forces Pasdaran – Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC, Sepah) PLO – Palestinian Liberation Organization Sepah – Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC, Pasdaran) SCC – Society of Combatant Clerics (Traditionalist Right) SNIE – Special National Intelligence Estimate UN – United Nations ix THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK x ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I thank my thesis advisors, Dr. Mohammed Hafez and Dr. Abbas Kadhim, for their invaluable insight, patience, and time. I also thank my dad and brother, Steven Grubb and Dr. Steven Grubb, Jr., for their assistance in proofreading and editing this thesis. Any mistakes that remain are my own. xi THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK xii I. MAKING SENSE OF IRAN’S FOREIGN POLICY, 1979–2009 A. RESEARCH QUESTION Questions regarding the motivations of U.S. adversaries lead policymakers to resort to a variety of theoretical frameworks explaining state behavior. Even though a single, universal theoretical model for explaining state behavior may not exist, this paper aims to isolate which of several leading international relations theories best explains the Islamic Republic of Iran’s behavior. I examine four key historical instances of Iranian foreign policymaking, according to five competing theories
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