SKYWARNEWS National Weather Service State College, PA Spring/Summer 2008 “Working Together To Save Lives”
The Cooperative Observers meteorological data in near real-time, to support forecast, warning and other public – Creators of Our service programs of the National Weather Country’s Weather History Service.
By Victor Cruz, Observation Program Volunteers in the Cooperative Program are Leader trained by National Weather Service personnel and receive the equipment to And so, my fellow Americans: ask not perform their duties. In Central what your country can do for you—ask Pennsylvania, the oldest and longest what you can do for your country. The continuous Cooperative Program is located aforementioned sentence was uttered by in Lancaster County. The City of Lancaster President John F. Kennedy during his Filter Plant has been a cooperative weather Inaugural Address on January 20, 1961. site since May 01, 1887. Our newest However, long before President Kennedy Cooperative Observer is in Chandler’s had spoken those words, the Cooperative Valley, which was established on June 19, Weather Observer Program had been in 2004. Approximately 115 cooperative full swing, since its creation in 1890 under observers help to maintain the Cooperative the Organic Act. Observer Program in Central Pennsylvania. The National Weather Service (NWS) Everyday more than 12,000 weather Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) is volunteers take cooperative observations truly the Nation's weather and climate on farms, at homes in urban and suburban observing network of, by and for the areas, National Parks, seashores, and people. mountaintops. The data they collect are an invaluable measurement of atmospheric The basic equipment for most new Coop conditions where people live, work and Stations is a Standard Rain Gage, play. The Cooperative Observer Program’s Maximum Minimum Temperature System, mission is to provide observational and a Snow Board. Typical locations range meteorological data, usually consisting of from a typical back yard to behind barns or daily maximum and minimum farm houses. People who grow gardens or temperatures, snowfall, and 24-hour crops as a hobby or for a livelihood need to precipitation totals, required to define the know how much rain has fallen. The Coop climate of the United States and to help data collected provides this knowledge and measure long term climate changes. It is helps with watering and fertilizing also meant to provide observational decisions. Another Warmer than People who have farms or run institutions and businesses tend to stay in one place Normal Winter for the longer and generally do not change Region locations often. While such long term stability is desirable, the COOP network is By John La Corte, Senior Forecaster not restricted to just farmers and established businesses. Almost anyone can For the fourth straight winter, seasonal become a Cooperative Observer. All it temperatures in central Pennsylvania requires is dedication to public service, averaged above normal. For ease of attention to detail, ability to learn and keeping weather records, the perform daily duties, a suitable location, a “meteorological” winter extends from the willingness to allow NWS to place first day of December through the end of measuring instruments on your property, February. This year, while not quite as and willingness to allow at least one visit warm as some recent years, still averaged per year from a NWS representative. about a degree warmer than normal over Additionally, ownership of a personal the central part of the state. Figure 1 computer with modem and familiarity with illustrates the average temperature its basic uses and an established internet access is Central Pa Winter Temp Departures desired. 8.0
6.0 At present, the National Weather Service Office in 4.0 State College is seeking two citizens or institutions who 2.0 want to give something back to their community, to 0.0 volunteer as cooperative -2.0 observers in Adams, Columbia, Fulton, Montour, -4.0 and Perry Counties. If you are that person or business, -6.0 please call 814-231-2405 and 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 ask for Paul Head the Cooperative Program Figure 1. Temperature Departures Winter 2007-08 Manager for more information. departures over the region since 2001. As we moved into the winter months many areas were still under a drought watch or warning. However above normal precipitation aided in easing the dry conditions and as of late March all drought conditions had been dropped by the state. The last measure of a winter’s severity is often the amount of snow that fell. As with the temperatures, this was the fourth winter Obtaining Extra in a row of that most of the area experienced below normal snowfall. While Meteorological Data Sets we were wetter than normal, the winter for the Forecast Process was marked by a distinct lack of many large widespread heavy snows. In fact it By Ron Holmes, Information Technology seemed we saw an almost endless string of Officer messy complicated storms that brought National Weather Service forecasters need mixed bags of weather types from snow to to know the current state of the atmosphere sleet, freezing rain and rain. This posed before attempting to predict some future quite a challenge to forecasters as sleet and state. In the old days they had a smattering freezing rain are some of the hardest of observations based at large airports elements to forecast and can cause some of spaced hundreds of miles apart. This the most significant hazards to travelers. rather course network also had a limitation Figure 2 shows precipitation and snowfall of reporting at hourly intervals. The departures for several stations in central frequency of observations improved during Pennsylvania during the winter. the 1990’s when the Automated Surface
Observing Rainfall Systems (ASOS) Central Pa Winter Precip/Snowfall Departures Snowfall were deployed. 3.00 35.0 Now forecasters 30.0 2.00 had observations 25.0 recorded at 5 1.00 20.0 minute intervals. 0.00 15.0 The spatial 10.0 -1.00 network also 5.0 improved -2.00 0.0 somewhat because Rainfall Departure Rainfall -3.00 -5.0 Daparture Snowfall the NWS could -10.0 -4.00 install an ASOS -15.0 unit just about -5.00 -20.0 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 anywhere. However, ASOS units are costly so deployment of Figure 2. Preciptation and Snowfall Departures 2007-08 these extra observing sites was still rather limited. We needed to fill While the winter will go in the books as in the gaps left behind by ASOS and get a mild, wet and relatively snow-less, it will denser network of observations. We didn’t also be pretty non note worthy. With the have to wait long. In the mid 90’s the cost of heating fuel being what it is these internet exploded. days, I doubt there are many who will complain that this will not be one of the The internet gave everyone the winters to remember. infrastructure to share information and
data. Spotters and the general public could now take part in the forecasting process by government has fostered with private sharing their personal weather station sector weather companies. Through observations with NWS meteorologists. communication and cooperation they have Web sites came on-line that enabled made it easy for NWS offices to obtain this methods for the general public to share rich dataset. In return the NWS provides their observations. If you have a personal them with an easy to use National Digital weather station hooked up to your Forecast Database (NDFD) data set and computer you can sign up with these web real-time NWS NEXRAD radar data set so sites and join a vast community that they can produce detailed forecasts for participates in the weather enterprise. your location. Everyone wins because These web sites provide helpful articles on better observations allow forecasters to what meteorological observation systems produce better forecasts and warnings. to purchase and how to configure your PC to send the information to their site.
Figure 1. Observing Sites
These web sites are a prime example of the The State College NWS Office processes positive private/public relationships the weather observations from various external web sites and other sources in addition to The daily records and normals for our two our normal data stream. These First-Order Climatological Stations observations are downloaded every hour (Harrisburg and Williamsport) are now a and plotted on our AWIPS computers. bit easier to find on the NWS State College They help fill in the gaps from the ASOS webpage. To access the daily normals observing network. NWS offices, through (sometimes called averages), or the daily a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), record maximums, minimums, or extreme also cooperates with AWS Convergence highest precipitation or snowfall for any Technologies day, month, or for the whole year, go to (http://www.aws.com/aws_2005/partners.a our local Climate Info Page: sp ) to obtain hundreds of observations http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/climate.php from schools, TV stations, and Emergency and make your selections on the managers for the sole purpose of plotting checkboxes and drop-down lists located on these observations on our AWIPS that page to pull up the data you wish to computers. The MOU states that we may see. not redistribute this data but it is invaluable in giving the forecasters a dense network The on-line records are updated every of observations on which to base their night, after the daily climate program has forecasts. Another source of extra run (normally by 4 am). Updating the file observing data comes from Roadway every night ensures that the data is always Weather Information Systems (RWIS) the very latest available, and that it is scattered along Interstate highways consistent, and accurate. The data file for (http://www.rwis.state.pa.us/site/site.nsf/m the daily normals is also updated every ainpage). There are about 80 RWIS night, but the normal values themselves are observing platforms across Pennsylvania. usually only updated every ten years, using data for the past 30 years. The current Figure 1.is an example of all of the extra period of record for normal data is from meteorological data sets being plotted on 1970 through 2000. our displays. You can see how dense the network is especially around populated A continuous weather record for areas. We are able to zoom in to these Harrisburg has been kept since 1888, and denser areas and obtain a spatially detailed since 1895 for Williamsport. view of temperature, dew point, wind speed and direction. If you have a personal Graphical plots of the recent past weather weather station and see from the image conditions (compared conveniently against below how your observation could help fill the normal conditions) can be found on our in existing gaps or you just want to local Climate Graphs page: participate in the forecast process with http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/climate/cligra your observation please contact me at phs.php [email protected]. A recent effort by the National Weather Climate Data Now Easier to Service’s Climate Services group has resulted in a great deal more climate Access on the Web information (especially co-operative
By Michael Dangelo, WFO CTP Webmaster climate data) available on the web. The “NOWData” tab on the following page has a wealth of information for many smaller One of the most important aspects to towns. However, all data on our web forecasting is constantly evaluating how pages is preliminary, and not immediately well we are actually doing. Anyone can thoroughly quality-checked, nor is it predict things, but if those predictions are certified for use in court or legal inaccurate, they aren’t worth very much. proceedings. This preliminary past data can be found at our office’s Climate Data I have served as public verification focal page: point at State College since September http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.ph 2005. My duties include verifying p?wfo=ctp temperature and precipitation forecasts, scoring them against various computer NOAA stores all the weather data collected model forecasts in order to give us and the by government sources at the National public an idea of just how accurate we Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Ashville, really are. North Carolina. If you only need weather data for casual use, you should check our As noted in the spring newsletter last year, local climate pages first. But, if you need these forecasts are scored against guidance further (more detailed) information, or if from 3 models. These are the NAM (MET you need certified data for use in legal output), the NGM (FWC output), and the proceedings or research, then you should GFS model (MAV output). The alphabet call the NCDC at (828) 271-4800. NCDC soup of acronyms may not mean very has a web site as well: much to the average reader, just know http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov these are highly complicated computer programs that give us an idea of what the Certified Climate Data can also be atmosphere will look like day to day. Our obtained through the North East Regional main job is to evaluate the output and Climate Center (at Cornell University in improve (hopefully) upon it in the form of Ithaca, NY). NERCC web address: the forecasts you use. http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Verification temperature scores are simply The Pennsylvania State Climatologist the difference between the forecast (Paul Knight) is located in State College, is temperature and the observed temperature another excellent source of Climate at a site. For example, a high temperature information for the Commonwealth. Paul forecast of 70, where the observed is also an instructor of Meteorology at temperature is 68, results in a 2 degree Penn State, and host of the Weather World error. The forecaster wants that score to be program on the Pennsylvania Cable as close to zero as possible. The sign of the Network (PCN). Paul can be reached at forecast error also can yield whether a (814) 865-8732, or on the web at: forecaster has a cold or warm “bias” or http://climate.psu.edu/ perhaps is forecasting too warm or cold on a seasonal basis.
2007 PUBLIC For precipitation, the scoring method is a VERIFICATION RESULTS little more complicated considering “probability of precipitation” (POP) and By David Martin, General Forecaster whether or not measurable precipitation
(.01 inches or more) was actually For the winter months, we excelled in the observed. A “Brier Score” is then temperature department but fell short when calculated by noting if measurable scored against the models for precipitation. precipitation is observed and comparing it For the spring season we faired well in to the forecast POP. If the forecaster thinks both the temperature and precipitation the POP on a given day will be low and forecasts. The exception was our ability to precipitation occurs, the result will be a “beat” the MAV guidance which was a high Brier Score. Likewise, if the forecast little better than the human forecasts over is for high POPS and no precipitation most of central Pennsylvania. For the occurs, the resultant Brier Score will once summer season we once again did a good again be high. The actual Brier Score is job forecasting temperatures and calculated by difference in the POP and 0 precipitation, despite summer traditionally if no measurable precipitation occurs or the being the hardest season to forecast POP and 100 if measurable precipitation rainfall. The nature of the kind of hit and occurs. The result is then squared. Sound miss showers and thunderstorms we get in complicated? It is. That’s why it all done the warm season can make beating the by computers and hopefully the forecasters machines very tough, but we managed to score as close to zero as possible. hold our own. The Fall months saw a repeat of Winter when we did well in the RESULTS temperature forecasts but suffered a bit with our precipitation scores. However, we Results generally vary from site to site, and still did better with precipitation in the Fall month to month. In addition, there is a lot compared to the Winter months. of variation from one season to another. 2007 started off on the cool and wet side, So while we have not yet achieved but by late April the pattern changed. Most perfection, and there is a considerable of the remainder of the year was percentage of our profession who maintain abnormally warm, dry, and sunny, with we will never be able to do so, we continue December capping off the year colder than to do our utmost to put the best forecast out normal. each and every day.
Overall we tend to do a little better at Rip Currents forecasting temperatures in the warm season. In order to get a better idea at how What They Are…The we do, monthly results were grouped by Dangers… How to Escape seasons. Winter is represented by the months of January through March. Spring By Matthew Steinbugl, Forecaster extends from April through June. Summer runs from July through September while Headed to the beach this summer? Looking the Fall goes from October through forward to going swimming in the ocean? December. These groups are chosen for If so, that’s great, but have you ever ease of scoring and record keeping and the considered what you would do if suddenly forecast verification is done for both dragged out to sea by a rip current? Don’t temperature and precipitation. panic – the following information about rip currents including safety tips will help to ease any fears you may have as well as educate you about why rip currents form and the potential dangers associated with them.
What are rip currents and why are they dangerous? Rip currents are powerful, channeled currents of water flowing away from shore. They typically extend from the shoreline, through the surf zone, and past the line of breaking waves. Rip currents can occur at any beach with breaking waves, including the Great Lakes.
Rip currents are the leading surf hazard for all beachgoers. Rip current speeds are typically 1-2 feet per second. However, speeds as high as 8 feet per second have been measured--this is faster than an Olympic swimmer! Thus, rip currents can sweep even the strongest swimmer out to sea. Rip currents can be killers. On average, more people die every year from rip currents than from shark attacks, Figure 1. Typical Rip Current tornadoes or lightning. According to the United States Lifesaving Association, 80 percent of surf beach rescues are attributed Rip currents most typically form at low to rip currents, and more than 100 people spots or breaks in sandbars, and also near die annually from drowning in rip currents. structures such as groins, jetties and piers. Rip currents can be very narrow or extend When and where do rip currents form? in widths to hundreds of yards. The Can they be identified? seaward pull of rip currents varies: Rip currents can be found on many surf sometimes the rip current ends just beyond beaches every day. Under most tide and the line of breaking waves, but sometimes sea conditions the speeds are relatively rip currents continue to push hundreds of slow. However, under certain wave, tide, yards offshore. and beach profile conditions the speeds can quickly increase to become dangerous to Rip currents are often not readily or easily anyone entering the surf. The strength and identifiable to the average beachgoer. For speed of a rip current will likely increase your safety, be aware of this major surf as wave height and wave period increase. zone hazard. Polarized sunglasses make it They are most likely to be dangerous easier to see the rip current clues provided during high surf conditions as the wave above. The following clues will help you height and wave period increase. identify rip currents. Look for:
• a channel of churning, choppy water • an area having a notable difference water. When out of the current, in water color swim towards shore. • a line of foam, seaweed, or debris • If you are still unable to reach moving steadily seaward shore, draw attention to yourself: • a break in the incoming wave face the shore, wave your arms, and pattern yell for help. • If you see someone in trouble, get None, one, or more of the above clues may help from a lifeguard. If a lifeguard indicate the presence of rip currents. is not available, have someone call 9-1-1 . Throw the rip current victim How do I avoid and survive a rip something that floats and yell current? instructions on how to escape. Remember, many people drown while trying to save someone else from a rip current.
Rip Current Myths
A rip current is a horizontal current. Rip Learn how to swim! currents do not pull people under the water–-they pull people away from shore. • Never swim alone. Drowning deaths occur when people pulled • Be cautious at all times, especially offshore are unable to keep themselves when swimming at unguarded afloat and swim to shore. This may be due beaches. If in doubt, don’t go out! to any combination of fear, panic, • Whenever possible, swim at a exhaustion, or lack of swimming skills. lifeguard protected beach. • Obey all instructions and orders In some regions rip currents are referred to from lifeguards. by other, incorrect terms such as rip tides • If caught in a rip current, remain and undertow. Rip currents are not rip calm to conserve energy and think tides. A specific type of current associated clearly. with tides may include both the ebb and • Don’t fight the current. Swim out flood tidal currents that are caused by of the current in a direction egress and ingress of the tide through inlets following the shoreline. When out and the mouths of estuaries, embayments, of the current, swim towards shore. and harbors. These currents may cause • If you are unable to swim out of the drowning deaths, but these tidal currents or rip current, float or calmly tread tidal jets are separate and distinct phenomena from rip currents. Undertow, an often misunderstood term, refers to the chance that a person will drown while backwash of a wave along the sandy attending a beach protected by USLA bottom. After a wave breaks and runs up affiliated lifeguards at 1 in 18 million. If the beach face, some of the water caught in a rip current at an unguarded percolates into the sand, but much of it beach, how you respond could make the flows back down the beach face creating a difference between life and death. thin layer of offshore-moving water with a relatively high velocity. This backwash can NOAA's National Weather Service and trip small children and carry them seaward. National Sea Grant Program, in partnership However, the next incoming wave causes with the United States Lifesaving higher landward velocities, pushing them Association, are working together to raise back up on the beach. Undertow does not awareness about the dangers of rip pull you under water or out to sea. currents. Research is also being conducted in order to develop and improve the ability Rip Currents: to predict the occurrence and strength of rip currents. The goal of the awareness Break The Grip of The campaign and research is to reduce the Rip!® number of rip current related fatalities. Awareness Week: A daily rip current outlook is included in June 1 - 7, 2008 the Surf Zone Forecast, which is issued by many National Weather Service offices. A three-tiered structure of low, moderate, high is used to describe the rip current risk. This outlook is communicated to lifeguards, emergency management, media and the general public. See this website for the latest rip current forecasts and information http://www.ripcurrents.noaa.gov/forecasts. shtml
With increasing coastal populations, rip currents will continue to be a serious hazard at surf beaches. Understanding rip currents can help you protect yourself and your loved ones when visiting the beaches.
The Great New England The greatest safety precaution that can be Hurricane of 1938 taken is to recognize the danger of rip currents and always remember to swim at Many of us believe the great New beaches with lifeguards. The United States Lifesaving Association has calculated the England hurricane of 1938 was a natural disaster, but in nature’s reckoning, a (HISA) Snowfall in Central hurricane, far from being a disaster, is a Pennsylvania natural invigoration of the forest. For a forest in its long cycle of growing is By Greg DeVoir, Senior Forecaster nourished chiefly by its fallen leaves and and David Ondrejik, Warning Coordination Meteorologist limbs and the death at last of great trees. Introduction After the hurricane, and at considerable expense, we sawed and chopped and In the winter of 2004-2005, NWS State carted logs to the mill. Fortunately our College, PA began an experimental partner tidy intrusion was not complete enough project with the Pennsylvania Department for we left much slash – limbs and tops – of Transportation (PENNDOT) and the to provide new shelter for the increasing Pennsylvania State Police (PSP) to mitigate the devastating effects of High number of birds and animals and, in the Impact Sub-Advisory (HISA) snow events now sunny forest openings, constant new along the Interstate 80 corridor (I-80) in young growths to feed on. central Pennsylvania. In recent years, this stretch of I-80 has experienced a series of A forest fire, like a hurricane, is beneficial tragic multi-vehicle accidents during snow (unless deep, and long lasting) for it squalls (Loganton, PA in 2001, Milesburg, releases young seeds to grow and its ash PA in 2004), resulting in numerous deaths and injuries, as well as millions of dollars invigorates their growing, just as does the in economic loss. This article details the new soil and trace elements lifted by the success of this important project, as well as roots of fallen trees. Ice storms, too are the need to expand these efforts, both beneficial, for with their breaking of limbs regionally and nationally. This project and and tops they return to the forest what all future efforts to mitigate HISA snow grows the forest. events support the NOAA/NWS 2006- 2011 Strategic Goal mandates to “Serve Society’s Needs for Weather and Water Floods, while not often affecting forests Information” and “Support the Nation’s except by erosion of forest soil, are Commerce with Information for Safe, disasters to man, who too often builds on Efficient, Environmentally Sound flood plains. Floods distribute new soils transportation.” to tired lands, and many of our richest crops are grown on river deltas. High Impact Sub-Advisory (HISA) Snow Events Excerpt taken from The Old Farmers Almanac 1975 The NWS's multi-tiered approach to warn of the likelihood, potential severity and NWS Expands Efforts to impact of impending winter weather events relies on the timely issuance of specific, Mitigate Effects of High event-driven Watches, Warnings, Impact Sub-Advisory Advisories or Special Weather Statements (SPSs). These products discuss the works well for the majority of longer-fused likelihood and potential impact of various scenarios involving snow accumulation events, while advising customers on and various precipitation types, a number appropriate actions to be taken to protect of winter events occur each year when the life and property. While this approach event (e.g., total snow accumulation) falls short of meeting Advisory and Warning criteria, yet still poses a substantial hazard to the public. State/ Date Time Character Impacts Province Fatal 30-35 vehicle pileup on I-495 12-Mar-98 1235 LST MA,NH Snow squall near Rt2 (Boxboro, MA). Two fatalities including a 3-month-old girl Snow squall Pileups involving 80 cars on 2 freeways 12-Feb-99 0900 LST WI (1 day after - U.S. 41/45 nr. Menomonee Falls, WI - record warmth) Waukesha County, 18 Injured I-80 pileups near Loganton involving 28-Dec-01 1600 LST PA Snow squall more than 100 vehicles. 8 Dead, 45 injured Series of chain reaction pileups, 28-Dec-01 1600 LST PA Snow squall including a fatal 30-car pileup near Hazleton that killed a 13-y/o girl Fatal I-80 pileups. 6 dead, 17 injured, 6-Jan-04 1215 LST PA Snow squall Portions of I-80 closed for more than 2 days 86-vehicle chain reaction pileup on US 13-Feb-06 1130 LST MI Snow squall 31, 25 injured 25 separate accidents over a quarter 26-Feb-06 0920 LST PA Snow squall mile stretch of I-81. Highway closed for 5 hours 15-vehicle pileup incl. 7 tractor trailers, 7-Dec-06 1535 LST PA Snow squall no inj/fatalities despite conditions similar to Jan. 6, 2004 Numerous accidents, including a fatal 16-Jan-08 1045 LST WV Snow squall 8-vehicle pileup on I-81. 2 fatalities Up to 100 vehicles involved in several 20-Jan-08 1300 LST ON Snow squall pileups, 1 dead, 29 injured. Highway closed ~10 hours 68-car pileup on I-81 killed 1 and 10-Feb-08 1400 LST PA Snow Squall injured 36. Northbound lane closed for 5 hours Blowing Snow/ 1 Dead, 24 injured in I-390 pileup near 10-Feb-08 1230 LST NY Whiteout Rochester, NY. 37 mph gusts created Conditions near zero visibility
Table 1. A sampling of recent high impact snow squall events across the northeastern United States, Great Lakes and southeast Canada. Sub-criteria events characterized by short- of an event, short term notifications are lived but extremely heavy snow bursts or accomplished through the issuance of squalls, often compounded by rapid wind Special Weather Statements (SPSs) and a and temperature fluctuations, can quickly cooperative call chain which is initiated by create life-threatening conditions on a single phone call to the PSP from NWS highways, including near-zero visibility, State College, PA. All subsequent rapidly deteriorating road conditions, and PENNDOT and PSP offices receive phone increasing driver anxiety and confusion. calls from their neighboring The resulting impact of such events can be PENNDOT/PSP office that an SPS has greatly disproportionate to overall been issued, which contains specific observed snow amounts (Table 1), thus highway mile-marker information, as well earning the name “High Impact Sub- as snow squall path timing similar to NWS Advisory” or HISA (DeVoir, 2004). pathcasts contained in Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, (SVRs). NWS Partner Project with PENNDOT and PSP In the 3 ½ years since the I-80 experimental notification project’s In 2004, NWS State College, PA began an implementation, no significant HISA experimental partner project with incidents have occurred on this stretch of I- PENNDOT and PSP to reduce the severe 80 across central Pennsylvania; This can impact of HISA events along I-80 in be attributed at least in part to the central Pennsylvania. Among other events, notification plan and cooperation between the Loganton, PA pileup in December NWS State College, PA with PENNDOT 2001 was a primary motivating factor and PSP, but also through good fortune. In behind this work, while another (the contrast, severe HISA impacts have Milesburg, PA pileups of January 2004) continued to occur outside of the served to promote greater awareness of the experimental notification area, and work is problem and the urgent need for agencies underway to expand notifications, perhaps to work together with the NWS in State through the development and issuance of a College, PA to prevent future new short-fused cold season convective reoccurrences. warning or advisory product, while remaining cognizant of workload This partnership culminated in the constraints and verification issues related development of a notification plan to to the longer fused winter storm events and facilitate pretreatment of roads by associated metrics. PENNDOT prior to an event, and real time mitigation during the event by PSP by Conclusion dispatching cruisers running lights on either side of an affected area to slow the HISA snow events are a significant threat stream of automobile and truck traffic to life and property on our nation’s headed into an intense snow squall. highways. Resulting impacts are greatly Whenever possible, advanced PENNDOT disproportionate to observed snowfall pretreatment of roads is accomplished via amounts, killing and injuring a substantial email notification list, whereby forecasters number of people each year. A proof of compose and send a short email when concept partner project by NWS State potential HISA events are diagnosed more College, PA has shown so far that than a day or two in advance. On the day notifications of these events by phone and SKYWARNEWS available SPS can be effective in mitigating the impacts of such events. However, a more on the Internet efficient and automated method of disseminating this information is needed By Bill Gartner, General Forecaster (due to workload constraints) in order to expand this critical service to all locations. An ‘electronic’ version of SKYWARNEWS is available on the internet. To view Current and future work to expand the SKYWARNEWS online, point your browser notification system and perhaps a new to our office’s homepage NWS warning or advisory text product is www.weather.gov/statecollege. About two involving NWS Binghamton, NY, which thirds of the way down along the left hand has forecast responsibility for Interstate 81 column you will see the section heading in northeastern Pennsylvania. Given the Weather Safety. Clicking on the last life-threatening impact of HISA events, a entry in that section, SkyWarn Spotters, short-fused winter weather warning will take you to our Spotter page. The product seems justified. At the least, a latest newsletter (this one!) is listed at the more efficient method of dissemination very top. Just click on it to download it. that takes advantage of the Emergency Below the current issue are links to every Alert System to immediately notify law issue since Spring of 2000. If you are a enforcement and emergency management new spotter, here you will find back issues officials, while containing pertinent mile- that are full of interesting articles on many marker and path-cast information is highly different aspects of weather and weather recommended. related topics.
Human error dictates that weather-related We encourage all of our spotters with accidents will continue to occur regardless internet access to sign up for internet of the notification system in place or NWS ‘delivery’ of the newsletter. We will send warning or advisory product that is you an email letting you know when the implemented or issued. The goal is to latest issue of SKYWARNEWS has been minimize the threat and reduce the loss of posted to our web site. This will help to life and property through efficient save us printing costs…your tax dissemination of critical short term dollars…and a few trees in the process. information, which when partnered with Plus, you will get to see the graphics in local and state law enforcement and color! department of transportation road crews can prompt life-saving mitigation and To sign up for internet notification, please lessen the severity of HISA-related send an email with ’SKYWARNEWS ’ in accidents. the subject line to [email protected]. Thank you! For more information on HISA research including workshop presentations and conference papers, visit our website at: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/HISA/HISA. php Update your spotter contact information
By Bill Gartner, General Forecaster
Have you moved recently? Gotten a new phone number? Please help us to keep your contact information up to date. From time to time we call our spotters when significant weather is in their area to provide us additional ‘ground truth’. Thus it is important to keep your contact information current. If any of your contact information (name, phone numbers, Figure 1. Perseid Meteor addresses, etc) has recently changed, please let us know.
Also, if you no longer wish to be a spotter of the earth passing through the debris trail or no longer wish to receive left behind by comets. Some comets (such SKYWARNEWS, please drop us a note. as 1P/Halley – whose location is now at the orbital distance of and opposite to Thank you! Neptune) have taken a path through the solar system that leads to the earth email: [email protected] intersecting its debris trail twice in a year.
The meteor showers derive their names U.S. mail: from the constellation where most of the William Gartner/Skywarn spotter update fleeting and faint flashes of light are seen. NWS/WFO State College Occasionally, a slightly larger piece of 328 Innovation Blvd, Rm #330 debris (ice or dust particles) can lead to a State College, PA 16803 more pronounced “fireball” leaving a thin, glowing trail across a long arc in the sky. Figure 1 is a photo of a Perseid meteor as it blazed across the Colorado sky on August Gazing the Spring and 8, 2007. Summer Skies for Meteor Showers Although a few meteor showers occur in the period January through April (most notably the Quadrantids in January and By Barry Lambert, Senior Forecaster Lyrids in April), we’ll focus on the May through December period which contains We look forward to some clear nighttime the some of the more “brilliant” and skies and low humidity this 2008 to view “reliable” meteor showers. Following the some of nature’s most fascinating light description of the more prominent celestial displays, namely meteor showers. Most displays (below) is a map of the radiants months of the year contain one or more where the meteor showers will occur. meteor shower(s), which occur as a result Coming to your local sky in May is the ETA Aquarids, from the debris of comet 1P/Halley. The maximum to this shower will be over the 3-day period from Sunday, May 4th to Wednesday May 7th with its peak on Monday May 5th, It will be a rather “lackluster warm-up” for what we can expect during some events in the Summer and Fall. There will be a rather low frequency of meteors (just 5 to 10 per hour in the northern hemisphere and 20 to 60 in the southern hemisphere), and lunar interference could further decrease the numbers viewed. The meteor shower will be found looking east and fairly low on the horizon within the constellation Aquarius, and just east of Pegasus. Because of the Dvorak (who viewed 16 meteors over a 90 low viewing angle, some of the meteors minute period) while camping in could be the so-called, slower and dramatic California’s San Bernardino Mountains. “earthgrazers”. The South Delta Aquarids (Monday July 28th – Wednesday July 30th ) normally produces between 5 and 10 meteors per hour, with as many as 30 per hour. This shower will be seen during the early morning hours (1 am to 4 am) and will be low on the southern horizon.
Our second show will feature the Lyrids during the period June 14-16. The broad viewing period, however, is June 10-21. This is a rather low-rate shower with around 10 meteors per hour at its peak. The color of these meteors are mainly blue The Perseid Meteor Shower has a and white (Go Penn State!). This meteor very long duration from about July 15 to shower was first discovered in 1966 by S. August 25, with its peak Tuesday or th th Wednesday morning August 12 and 13 fast moving bolides are just before dawn. The Perseids are common. probably the most widely viewed annual June Lyrids: Radiant--near Vega. Another part of May June 16 meteor shower. The meteors may fall at a Lyrid meteor stream. 15 per rate of up 100 per hour, and an occasional hour, faint blue meteors. longer lasting “fireball” is also seen. You Ophiuchids: Radiant-- near Sagitarrius. Rate varies from June 20 can view this display the entire night as the 8 to 20, with occaisionally radiant is above the horizon all night at many more. latitudes above 32 deg N. The best of the June Draconids: Radiant-- show occurs during the predawn hours near handle of Big Dipper. June 30 Rate varies from 10 to 100 per hour. Pons-Winnecke Comet is parent. Delta Aquarids: Radiant--near Capricornus. 25 per hour, July 28 40 days slow (24 kps) with yellow trails. Capricornids: Radiant--near Aquarius. Tough to tell these July 30 from Delta Aquarids. 10 to 35 per hour with bolides. Perseids: Radiant--near Double cluster. 50 to 100 per August 10 hour, yellow with trails and 5 days. bolides. The best modern dependable shower. Kappa Cygnids: Radiant--near Deneb. 12 per hour with August 20 many fireballs. Duration--15 when the moon is low, and the radiant days. relatively high in the mid summer sky. Andromedids: Radiant-- near Cassiopeia. Occaisionally August 31 spectacular, usually 20 per Below is a listing of all meteor showers hour. Some red fireballs with that you may be able to observe from about trails. Biela's Comet parent. Alpha Aurigids: Radiant-- the time of this publication through the end September near Capella. 12 per hour, 23 of 2008 fast with trails.
Piscids: Radiant--near Aries. October 7 Date Description Duration 15 per hour at 28 kps. Eta Aquarids: Radiant-- near Draconids: Raidiant--near Water Jar. From Apr. 21 to Hercules. Spectacular when May 4 May 12. 21 per hour, yellow comet Giacobinni-Zinner with bright trails. Comet October 9 passes near Earth. 200 per Halley debris. hour when comet is close is not uncommon, 1000 per Tau Herculids: Radiant--near hour sometimes. Corona Borealis. About a June 3 month long, 15 per hour max, Orionids: Radiant--near October Taurus. 30 per hour, fast (67 most quite faint. 8 days. 20 kps) often in colors with long Scorpiids: Radiant--near trails. June 5 Ophiuchus. 20 per hour with some fireballs. Taurids: Radiant--near November Pleaides. 10 per hour with 45 days. Arietids: About 30 per hour. 5 many fireballs. Debris from June 7 Slow moving with some comet Encke. fireballs. November Pegasids: Radiant--Near Ophiuchids: Radiant-- near June 13 25 days 12 Square. from Oct. 10 to late Scorpius. Only 3 per hour but Nov., 10 per hour, used to be http://www.amsmeteors.org/fireball/firebal spectacular. l_log2008.html#pennfb Leonids: Radiant--near Sickle. Most spectacular of modern showers. 1966 saw 500,000 This final link has a comprehensive listing November per hour-- 140 per second. 4 days. of the many fireball sightings already 17 Comet Temple--Tuttle is parent. 20 per hour between reported in 2008. It also contains a 33 year shows, fastest known dramatic photo and maps of the trajectory at 71 kps. of the Pennsylvania Fireball or “Bolide”
Monocerids: Radiant-- near during the early evening hours (about 6:18 Decmeber Gemini. 12 per hour. 10 pm) on July 23, 2001. Decmeber Sigma Hydrids: Radiant--near
11 Head. 12 per hour, fast. Fire Weather Forecasting Geminids: Radiant--near Castor. 60 per hour, many and Wildfires in Decmeber bright, white but few trails. 6 days. 14 Icarus, the Earth-crossing Pennsylvania astroid seems to be the parent. Leo Minorids: 10 per hour, Bill Gartner, General Forecaster and Fire Decmeber somewhat faint. Discovered Weather Program Leader 14 by amateurs in 1971. Delta Arietids: 12 per hour, Decmeber This time of year highlights another must view in early evening, 20 before radiant sets. important forecast program of the National Ursids: Radiant--Little Dipper Weather Service (NWS)…Fire Weather. Dec. 22 Bowl. Medium speed, 20 per 2 days Spring is the most active time for wildfires hour, many with bright trails. in Pennsylvania. More than 800 fires in the Spring of 2006 (the most recent data) Here are some links to explore the burned over 7000 acres across the state. fascinating world of meteors. A few of the links have a comprehensive listing of all While forest fires in Pennsylvania meteor shower occurrences during 2008, fortunately do not usually get as big as along with where in the sky to locate them. those that occur in the western United States, they are still costly and present a http://www.amsmeteors.org/ danger to firefighters and the public. As part of its mission to protect life and http://skytour.homestead.com/met2008.html property, the NWS produces daily forecasts of weather conditions that are http://www.space.com/spacewatch/meteor_sho used by those responsible for extinguishing wers_2008.html wildfires. Among these wild land firefighters are personnel with the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_meteo Pennsylvania Bureau of Forestry, r_showers Allegheny National Forest in northwest Pennsylvania, and your local fire http://www.theskyscrapers.org/meteors/ department. http://www.amsmeteors.org/showers.html# Spring is the most active time for wildfires 2008 for a multitude of reasons and all are related in some way to the weather. Most fires start in what are called fine fuels; grasses, dead leaves and small plants that Shocking news about died or were dormant over the winter. As temperatures warm during March and Lightning Awareness Week April, snow cover melts and these fine in PA (June 22-28, 2008) fuels dry out quickly. The combination of Dave Ondrejik, Warning Coordination dry fuels with low humidity and strong Meteorologist winds, which cause fuels to dry even Ok, so I went for the cheap joke in the faster, can cause fires to grow and spread title…but there is no joking around when it rapidly. During periods of extreme weather comes to lightning. conditions, the NWS may issue a Fire
Weather Watch or Red Flag Warning to The science around lightning is quite alert firefighters to the potentially fascinating. Can anyone guess what dangerous weather conditions. These are ingredient is needed in a thunderstorm to equivalent to the watches and warnings produce lighting???? That’s right – ice or that we issue for severe thunderstorms. as we call it – hail! Once trees and plants bloom, a process called ‘green-up’, their moisture content In a storm, the ice particles vary in size increases and wildfire activity decreases by from small ice crystals to larger hailstones, mid to late May. but in the rising and sinking motions
within the storm there are a lot of One last factor that makes Spring the collisions between the particles. This primary wildfire season in Pennsylvania is causes a separation of electrical charges. burning of debris. This time of year Positively charged ice crystals rise to the coincides with outdoor cleanup and the top of the thunderstorm, and negatively burning of dead leaves, branches, and other charged ice particles and hailstones drop to household debris. Burning of debris that the middle and lower parts of the storm. gets out of control is the leading cause of This produces a large difference between wildfires in Pennsylvania. When possible, positive and negative electrons in the cloud it is best to recycle lawn and household and thus we can get in cloud lightning. refuse instead of burning it. If you must burn, please be aware of local burning For argument sake, lets say that the earth is ordinances and possible burn bans. The generally positively charged. And Pennsylvania Bureau of Forestry provides thunderstorm gathers pools of positively these safety tips that are good to follow: charged particles along the ground.
• Do not burn on windy days. Positive charge particles tend to rise in the • Never leave fire unattended. air through tall objects such as houses, • Always have a water source and trees and yes, even you. You will feel a rake or shovel nearby specific pattern if these electrons are • Utilize a proper burn barrel. moving through you. You will feel a • Ensure completed fires are out tingling sensation in your feet, and that cold. will rise through your legs, back, neck and head…and could actually make your hair And remember…only YOU can prevent stand on end. If this happens to you, it is wildfires. not a fun game, it means that in a matter of wearing rings and a metal watch, will that seconds you could be struck by lightning. attract the lightning. The answer is no, however if you are struck wearing that The negatively charged area in the storm jewelry, you will receive burns, some will send out a charge toward the ground could be serious. called a stepped leader. It is invisible to the human eye, and moves in steps in less The National Weather Service is holding a than a second toward the ground. When it Lightning Awareness Week on June 22-28, gets close to the ground, it is attracted by 2008. This is an important topic as all these positively charged objects, and a Pennsylvania ranks in the top 10 in channel develops. You see the electrical lightning deaths. transfer in this channel as lightning.
If you feel this electronic sensation, the first thing you need to do is break the flow of electrons from the spot where you are standing. Run as fast as you can to the nearest house or shelter. If there is no shelter around, the next best thing to do is get into the lightning position.
Figure 2: PA ranks in the top 10 with 25 lightning fatalities. PA also ranks in the top 10 for number of people struck by lightning (not shown in this image)
So, the question remains…why does Pennsylvania have so many people struck by lightning and so many lighting fatalities? If you look at a map of how many lighting strike occurred between 1989 and 1999, there are at least 22 states above Pennsylvania in lighting strikes.
Figure 1: Recommended Lightning Position
Note in this position, the person is on the balls of his feet, which minimizes his contact with the ground. Also he is facing down with his eyes closed and his hands covering his ears. Why cover your ears? Well, the thunder will produce a loud concussion wave that quite frequently can cause people to lose all or partial hearing. Our findings show this is the best position.
One may ask the question…if you are Figure 3: Shows the 10 year U.S. Flash Density over 30 minutes after the last thunder is heard - the U. S. There are at least 22 states above PA in number of lightning strikes. safe to resume activities.
So, again with the question….why do we I could go on further about lightning have a high death rate and strike rate? This awareness, like each spark of lightning can is one answer where I cannot completely reach over five miles in length, soar to fill in the blanks. It is apparent that some temperatures of approximately 50,000 Pennsylvanians are not paying attention to degrees Fahrenheit, and contain 100 the lighting rules. million electrical volts.
Remember, if you are close enough to hear Or Thunder is caused by the lightning thunder, you are close enough to be struck channel heating up rapidly to 50,000 by lightning. Lightning can strike out degrees. The is rapid expansion of heated ahead or behind the storm by 10 miles. air causes the thunder. Since light travels faster than sound in the atmosphere, the sound will be heard after the lightning. If you see lightning and hear thunder at the same time, that lightning is in your neighborhood.
Did you know that there is Positive and Negative lightning????
Not all lightning forms in the negatively charged area low in the thunderstorm cloud. Some lightning originates in the top of the thunderstorm. This area carries a large positive charge. Lightning from this area is called positive lightning. This type is particularly dangerous for several reasons. It frequently strikes away from the rain core, either ahead or behind the thunderstorm. It can strike as far as 5 or 10 Figure 4: Shows a bolt of lightning striking miles miles from the storm, in areas that most ahead of the core of the thunderstorm. people do not consider to be a lightning risk area. The other problem with positive And finally, the GOLDEN RULE when it lightning is it typically has a longer comes to lightning safety. If you follow duration, so fires are more easily ignited. this rule, you will give yourself the best Positive lightning usually carries a high chance to survive any storm that passes peak electrical current, which increases the through your area this summer. lightning risk to an individual. This is the type of lightning that people see “out of a Use the 30/30 Rule clear blue sky”!
30 seconds flash-to-bang - time to take To help improve our safety around shelter! thunderstorms and lightning, the National Weather Service is conducting a Lightning safe to handle. First, you should have Safety Week. This year the dates are June someone call 9-1-1 or your local 22 – 28, 2008. ambulance service. Then check to see that the victim is breathing and has a pulse, and If you have internet access, please go to: continue to monitor the victim until help arrives. Cardiac arrest is the immediate http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/week.htm cause of death in lightning fatalities. If necessary, you should begin cardio- Below is a list of topics that will be pulmonary Resuscitation (CPR). Also, if covered during the week. If you don’t possible, move the victim to a safer have internet access, portions of theses text place. Don't let the rescuers become products will air on NOAA Weather Radio lightning victims. Lightning can strike during Lightning Safety Week. the same place twice.
Text of Hopefully you have learned something Day Topic Factsheet Video new and interesting about lightning. If you Lightning & still have questions, please use the websites Lightning Lightning Text Monday listed throughout the article, they provide a Overview Safety- An Equivalent Introduction wealth of information about this topic. Why do some The clouds produce Text Tuesday Science of Until the Fall…STAY SAFE, and KEEP lightning and Equivalent Lightning AN EYE TO THE SKY!! others don't? Lightning Lightning Text Wednesday Safety Safety Equivalent Outdoors Outdoors Storm-Based Polygon Lightning Safe Shelters Warnings are here! Text Thursday Safety & Indoor Pete Jung, Senior Service Hydrologist Equivalent Indoors Safety The Medical Medical Text Friday Aspects of Aspects Equivalent A long awaited change in warning Lightning methodology has arrived at the National Weather Service. Beginning in the Fall of 2007, a transition was made from a “county-based” warning system to a You can find more information for your polygon or “storm-based” warning system. children on lightning at our Owlie Let’s take a moment and compare the old Lightning Ahead weather book at: and new warning strategies, and see what the impacts will be on you and on National http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/brochures/owlie- Weather Service (NWS) Products. lightning.pdf If someone is struck by lightning, it is Old County-based Warning Methodology: important that they receive the appropriate For many years, the NWS has issued medical attention immediately. Some Severe Thunderstorm, Tornado and Flash deaths can be prevented if the victims are Flood Warnings for entire counties. This attended to promptly. Lightning victims was done without respect for exactly how do not carry an electrical charge and are much of the county would actually be impacted by a storm. Let’s look at an example to illustrate the point. If a tornado disseminating the warning, (for example was going to cross only the far southern via the internet of on TV) could then focus portion of Dauphin County, the NWS the warning to those people only in harms would, in the past, issue a Tornado way, and not interrupt the lives of those Warning for ALL of Dauphin County. The people not at all affected by the storm, say impacts of this type of warning philosophy in the northern part of the county. can be easily seen; a large portion of the county (and also most of the population) would be under a “tornado warning” but actually see no severe weather. With most of the population seeing no effects of the storm, this lead to a perception of over- warning, even though, in this example, there actually was a tornado in southern Dauphin County.
In this revised example now using the “storm-based” warning system, the three tornadoes are warned for based on their track. As a result, 70% less area, and 600,000 fewer people are covered by the warning. Those people not in the path of the tornadoes do not get lumped in to the warnings.
By focusing on the true threat area, storm In this real-life example depicted above, based warnings will improve NWS under the “county-based” warning system, warnings will improve NWS warning warnings for the three tornadoes depicted accuracy and quality. They will promote would cover 8 counties and over one improved graphical warning displays and million people. support a wider warning distribution. NOAA Weather Radios will work as before and continue to alert entire counties. New Storm-based Warning Methodology: The NWS now issues warnings based on Internet reports of Severe the actual storm track, and the areas to be Weather impacted by Severe Thunderstorms, Dave Ondrejik, Warning Coordination Tornadoes and Flash Floods. Using the Meteorologist same example as earlier, the NWS would issue a warning only for the southern As of April 30, 2008 we no longer accept portion of Dauphin County, instead of the internet reports of severe weather. To entire county. Various methods of report your severe weather, please call our spotter line at 1-800-697-0010. Additionally, there is a new National-wide automated system that you can call to report your severe weather. That phone number is 1- 877- 633-6772. This automated system will ask you for your location and report. It will then automatically format it in a special context and send it directly to our office.
We found that the Internet page data entry system provided us very few reports and was not cost effective to maintain. Hopefully you can program these two numbers into your home and cell phones for easy access when severe weather strikes.
But again, please be safe when reporting severe weather. Your safety is our #1 concern!!
SKYWARNEWS
National Weather Service 328 Innovation Blvd Suite #330 State College, PA 16803
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