AMERICA'S LEADING MAGAZINE

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Copyright © 1984 by the African-American Institute, Inc. MARCH-APRIL 1984 AMERICAS VOLUME 29, NUMBER 2 LEADING MAGAZINE ON AFRICA

A Publication of the VREPORT African-American Institute

The African-American Institute Interview Chairman Flight Lieutenant Jerry Rawlings, George N. Lindsay Chairman of the Provisional National Defense Council, Ghana President Donald B. Easum Interviewed by Margaret A. Novicki Nigeria The Coup and the Future Publisher By Larry Diamond Frank E. Ferrari Editor Upper Volta Margaret A. Novicki Six Months into Sankara's Revolution 16 Assistant Editor By Howard Schissel Michael Maren Editorial Assistant Jason Zweig Ivory Coast Editorial Secretary Hard Times for an African Alana Lee Success Story 20 Interns By George McFarlane George N. Archer Savona Bailey-McClain Letter from Kampala Uganda's Security Nightmare 24 By Rick Wells Circulation. Subscriptions, Ad- IN THIS ISSUE vertising, Management, and Pro- African Update 27 duction Services by Transaction 1984 began with international attention fo- Editor: Michael Maren Periodicals Consortium: cused on Nigeria in the aftermath of its New Assistant Editor: Jason Zweig Year's military coup. This issue of Africa Report Editors takes a look at recent political and economic Researcher: Stephen Adkisson Alex Fundock III trends and events in West Africa — a region that George P. Bassett has undergone some fundamental changes over Guinea the past two years- Sekou Toure's Ouverture Art Governmental corruption and economic de- 43 Dena Leiter cline were the seeds that sowed the 1979 and By Justin Mendy Scott E. Pringle 1981 coups led by Flight Lieutenant Jerry Rawlings of Ghana, the August 1982 coup in In Washington Upper Volta, and the return of the military in Ni- Southern Africa: An Issue in '84? geria. Africa Report editor Margaret A. Novicki 47 Alnca Report (ISSN 0001-9836), a By John de St. Jorre nonpartisan magazine ol African talks to Flight Lieutenant Rawlings about the affairs, is published bimonlhty in situation in Ghana and the region just after the January-February, March-April. second anniversary ol his 1981 takeover. Larry Economic Analysis May-June. July-August, Septem- Diamond analyzes the causes behind the Nige- The Search for a Growth Strategy ber-October, and November-De- rian coup and offers an assessment ot the tasks 50 cember, and is scheduled to ap- for Africa pear at the beginning of each date ahead for Maj. Gen. Buhan. Howard Schissel penod at 833 United Nations examines Capt. Thomas Sankara's coup in By Carol Lancaster Plaza, New York, N.Y. 10017. Ed- Upper Volta, and George McFarlane and Justin itorial correspondence and letters Mendy look at the tough economic times in Ivory to the Publisher should be sent to Coast and Guinea, respectively. At the United Nations this address. Correspondence From East Africa, Rick Wells reports on the Africa and the U.S. at Odds 54 regarding subscriptions, distribu- tion, advertising, and other busi- latest efforts ol Ugandan President Obote to win By Monique Rubens ness matters should be sent to international confidence in the face of deteri- Transaction Periodicals Consor- orating security. Namibia is the topic ol two Namibia tium, Dept. 8010. Rutgers Uni- analyses: Barry Streek explains why prospects versity, New Brunswick, New Jer- lor a settlement appear slim when South African South Africa's Stakes in 57 sey 08903. Telephone: (201) perceptions of its stakes in the conflict are con- the Border War 932-2280. Subscription rates: In- sidered, and John Seiler, recently returned from dividuals: U.S.A. $21, Canada By Barry Streek $27. air rate overseas $45. Insti- Namibia, provides an assessment of the situa- tutions: U.S.A. $28, Canada $34. tion inside the country and what the American air rate overseas $52. Second- response should be. Opinion class postage paid at New York. In our In Washington and At the United Na- Policy Options in Namibia 61 N.Y. and at additional mailing of- tions columns. John de St. Jorre explains the By John Seiler fices, POSTMASTER If this maga- rote African issues are playing in the American zine is undeliverable. please send presidential campaigns, and Momque Rubens notice to Africa Report, Transac- 64 tion Periodicals Consortium (ad- provides a wrap-up of African issues and the Books dress above]. Telephones: Pub- U.S. role during last fall's United Nations Gen- lisher (212) 949-5717. Editor eral Assembly session. And Carol Lancaster (212) 949-5731. Copyright ic. analyzes why strategies for Africa's economic Photo Credit 1984 by the African-American In- growth have failed and concludes with some The cover photo of Flight Lieutenant Jerry Rawlings of Ghana was stitute. Inc. recommendations for U.S. policy. taken by Genevieve Chauvel/Sygma. INTERVIEW Fit. Lt. Jerry Rawlings, Chairman of the Provisional National Defense Council, Ghana

INTERVIEWED BY MARGARET A. NOVICKI

Fit. Lt. Rawlings exhorting workers at Takoradi: "In the last analysis, Ghana's economic recovery depends much more on the productivity of our people"

AFRICA REPORT: Could you provide an assessment of bushfires, which did considerable damage too: the low level your government's two-year record, highlighting both those of the Volta Lake, which has brought about the need lor areas where you feel it has registered its most concrete power cuts; and the effects of absorbing over one million achievements and where its shortcomings have been? Ghanaian returnees from Nigeria. RAWLINGS: At the end of 1981, Ghana was like a runa- And yet they have faced these hardships with hope and way train, rushing downhill towards a broken bridge. The some cheerfulness. And I think this is our most important economy and the moral liber of the people appeared to have achievement—the restoration of hope and confidence even reached a point of no return. We have however been able to in the face of material hardships. apply the brakes and gradually bring the train to a halt, and Our shortcomings have been in the same area of attitudes, we have started repairing the bridge. It is only when this is rather than in material things. Some sections of the commu- done that the train can cross the bridge and begin climbing the nity have been unnecessarily alienated by the actions of hill on the other side. people unused to the responsible use of power, but we have Now for the ordinary people, this means that they have learned from these mistakes over the past two years. A gen- seen very little in the way of material improvements in their eral positive feeling is being generated. daily lives. Indeed, they face increased hardships caused by AFRICA REPORT: You inherited an economy on the the drought, which has severely affected the 1983 harvests brink of bankruptcy, and over the last year you have intro- despite all the efforts they put into it; the effects of the duced an austerity budget, a three-year recovery plan, and a

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 devaluation of the cedi, in response to which you have won those here. But the people know that they are not suffering a substantial International Monetary Fund [IMF] loan and to make a corrupt government rich at all. We are all suffer- pledges of Western finance. Could you describe your gov- ing in order to concentrate all our resources on the building ernment's economic program, pointing out the priority sec- of a just and prosperous society. tors, and comment on whether you think these measures AFRICA REPORT: You have been critical of the "IMF will be sufficient to pull Ghana out of its economic morass? solution" to Third World economic problems. What caused Will these programs not further your dependence on West- you to change your course and go to the IMF? Do you think ern finance? the IMF agreement and the results of the Paris donor confer- RAWLINGS: In the last analysis, Ghana's economic re- ence indicate a change in perceptions on the part of the West covery depends much more upon the productivity of our toward your government? If so, what caused them to alter people. Without hard work and a substantial effort to pro- their attitudes? duce more, no amount of economic plans, fiscal measures, RAWLINGS: In order to turn our economy around, an in- or external financing can do more than provide temporary jection of capita! was essential. I have been critical, as have relief. many other people in the Third World, of inappropriate aid, Now there is something we ought to get straight. The real of restrictive conditions imposed on countries needing aid, devaluation had been taking place over the years and the and of aid that addicts the recipient countries to more and measures we have taken are simply a question of facing up more aid. I have not changed these opinions. to the reality. What we are trying to do is to restore and re- Ghana did not accept an aid package on terms dictated by vive those sectors of the economy that will enable us to the World Bank or the IMF. We worked out our own pro- stand on our own feet. The transport system is being re- posals, presented them, and argued out our case. The fact habilitated. Mining, timber, agriculture, and industry—all that they accepted our argument is an indication that we had those sectors with which we can either provide our own shown responsible management and the courage and deter- needs or increase our foreign exchange earnings are our mination to go through with such a realistic program of eco- areas of priority. The aid and loans that we have received nomic reconstruction. This has no doubt created a climate of are simply tools that we need to work with in order to break confidence, irrespective of differences in political orienta- free from dependency. We do not intend them to addict tion. Ghana to further aid, but to enable us to attain true indepen- AFRICA REPORT: Your government's relations with the dence. Our ability to do this very much depends, as I have United States have been rocky, in part due to perceptions said, upon efficient mobilization of the people for increased that Ghana was aligning itself with Libya, Cuba, and the productivity. This is no easy task, most especially after so Eastern bloc. There were allegations of a CIA-inspired coup many years of apathy and cynicism, but we believe it can be plot at one point. How would you characterize your rela- done, and a lot will be done, especially this year. tions with the U.S. at this time? Are there any major areas We regard food aid as a purely emergency measure, and of disagreement? What is your assessment of both your need we are being careful not to put it into the system at prices for, and the current level of, U.S. aid, trade, and investment that will undercut local prices and so discourage our farmers. in Ghana? The aim of our economic recovery program is sustainable de- RAWLINGS: We have the warmest feelings tor the people velopment and not dependence arising from short-term solu- of the United States, many of whom originate from West tions. Africa. However, we are sometimes made uneasy by the at- AFRICA REPORT: The World Bank said that no Ghanaian government has attempted as comprehensive eco- nomic reforms as yours. Do you think you will be able to carry through these stringent economic policies without alienating those sectors of the populace—the workers and urban poor—who have been your strongest supporters? Are these policies in contradiction with your populist goals? \, RAWLINGS: Now listen. A government, and especially a government such as ours that is trying to rebuild a shattered economy, cannot design its policies simply to please peo- ple. If we have to take the long-term national interest at heart, then we must approach our problems realistically, building for the future, and not courting cheap popularity. The people have faced and continue to face hardship. Naturally, people will grumble. But the fact that Ghanaians have been able to put up with shortages, transport difficul- ties, low salaries, and other problems without any major protest, is an indication of their confidence in our integrity, Rally after the December 31 revolution: "The real the integrity and good intentions of the PNDC government. devaluation had been taking place over the years and the Visitors from other countries have commented that in their measures we have taken are simply a question of facing countries there would be riots if conditions were similar to up to reality"

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 outstanding successes in making health care, education, and other basic needs available to the formerly disadvantaged sections of society can provide us with valuable lessons. But again, it does not mean that Ghana intends to become an African puppet for any country. Regarding our neighbors, we are very anxious for cordial relations. So many of our problems, development aims, and even peoples are interrelated, and there should therefore be no barrier in the way of good relationships even where our political and economic philosophies differ. I have recently visited Benin, Upper Volta, Mali, and Ivory Coast, and more recently, Guinea, and in each case have met a cordial welcome and an eagerness to increase neighborly coopera- tion. It is something we are all working towards. Fit. Lt. Rawlings with World Bank President A.W. Clausen: "The aid and loans wehave received are simply tools to AFRICA REPORT: What are your plans for the demo- work with to break free from dependency" cratization of Ghana's political system? How effective are the People's Defense Committees (PDCs) and the Workers' Defense Committees (WDCs) as vehicles for increasing titude of the Reagan administration towards the Third popular participation in the decision-making process? Do World. There is a strong tendency to jump to political con- you envision a time when you would schedule elections or clusions, to regard as threats matters that are the internal conduct a referendum? affairs of developing countries, and to overreact, sometimes RAWLINGS: The People's Defense Committees and in a rather heavy-handed manner, to issues and even as- Workers' Defense Committees were set up two years ago. sumptions that hardly merit such attention. At the same When the power and responsibility for carrying out certain time, the U.S. administration seems upset when we of the basic functions in communities and workplaces is suddenly Third World decide to react to American reactions! thrust into the hands of the people, there is bound to be However, our relations with the United States have im- some confusion. We have been through a period of learn- proved over the past year. There have been periods when ing, a period during which those who tried to use PDCs to the U.S. has withheld aid, apparently in reaction to allega- further their own ends have been weeded out. a period dur- tions on our part of the involvement of U.S. security agen- ing which responsible grass-roots initiative has grown cies in our internal affairs. At the moment, however, I don't stronger and has gained confidence. think there are any major disagreements. These PDCs remain, in fact they are the basic foundation With regard to the level of U.S. aid, trade, and invest- of democratization in Ghana. They have involved them- ment in Ghana, we would welcome any growth in economic selves in neighborhood sanitation, road building and relationships that do not seek to influence our internal maintenance, the building of clinics, primary schools, policies, or to dominate our affairs. dams, and fishponds. They have planted trees, cultivated AFRICA REPORT: Could you outline Ghana's foreign community farms, organized antismuggling patrols in bor- policy objectives, and comment on your relations with der areas, and supervised the distribution of basic com- Libya, Cuba, and the Eastern bloc, as well as with your modities through the Community Shops. The PDC execu- neighbors in the region? tives are elected by the members of the smaller units. Pre- RAWLINGS: Ghana is a member of the nonaligned sently, at the district level and above, they are appointed, movement. We believe that the only way in which the less but these levels will also be democratized. powerful countries can maintain real independence and We are working towards democracy from the bottom up, avoid domination by either East or West is to come together instead of from the top down. The kind of elections held for mutual aid and support. From this position, we can under former regimes gives no real opportunity for partici- enjoy friendly relations with both East and West. pation. The ballot box was used to usurp the people's Too much has been said and many conclusions have been power, allowing them only a meaningless choice, making drawn about our relations with Libya and Cuba. 1 must spectators out of us, after which people could only look on make it quite clear that Ghana's revolution is its own. We helplessly as the politicians lined their own pockets and are engaged in restructuring our own society, on our own thereby systematically destroyed the social and economic terms, to suit our own conditions. We can learn from other fabric of the nation. We have seen this happen here, and we revolutions—the American and the French, as well as the have seen it happen in Nigeria, as in several other places, Libyan and the Cuban—but this does not mean a wholesale with the inevitable result of a reaction to create a more real acceptance of their values and methods. form of democracy. Let's not forget that Libya came promptly to our aid in a The process in which we are engaged is a slow one. We time of crisis when other countries were still sitting on the are learning as we go, sometimes making mistakes, but we fence. We are grateful, but this does not make us puppets. believe that the end result will be a more genuine democracy Cuba has many physical and social similarities with Ghana than we have seen before. and it is a particularly fruitful field for cooperation. Cuba's AFRICA REPORT: Over the past year, there have been

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 several coup attempts against your government, defections and political connections. We have experienced all of these from the PNDC, demonstrations by students and workers. combinations here, often orchestrated by self-exiled Do these activities indicate a dwindling of support among Ghanaians who prefer to do their politics at a very safe dis- those who were initially firmly behind your revolution? To tance, from your countries. what do you attribute these activities? AFRICA REPORT: Critics charge your government with RAWLINGS: In order to provide the disadvantaged with a having waged a class war against the middle and profes- fair share of the nation's resources, it follows that those who sional classes, of having sanctioned attacks or crackdowns formerly had an unfair share must have less. There is no on suspected political opponents, and of having abrogated way around this fact. Anyone who thinks that it is possible the independent judiciary via the establishment of public to improve the lot of the underprivileged while leaving the tribunals. How do you respond to these charges? privileges of an elite minority untouched is not being realis- RAWLINGS: As 1 said earlier, to help the underprivi- tic. Nor is it realistic to expect the privileged to give up leged, to attempt to narrow the huge gap between the life- without protest some of the advantages that they have taken style of a privileged few and the disadvantaged majority, for granted. I am not only speaking of material advantages, must necessarily mean that those with an unfair share may but of the assumption, for example, that a certain class of have to lose some. If 10 percent of the people eat half the people can evade their tax obligations and other social re- national cake, and if it is agreed that it is unfair that the sponsibilities with impunity, or that they have some inher- other half must feed the remaining 90 percent, we can only ent right to make decisions on behalf of their less fortunate give more to the 90 percent by reducing the slice of the 10 compatriots. percent. In such a situation, some will merely grumble and then Some people would say, "Then make the cake bigger so adjust themselves to the new system. Others will openly that everyone gets more." This is not completely accept- protest. But others will go further and attempt to return to able. First, it will take time and hard work to increase the the old system by overthrowing the new. And to do this, size of the cake, and the starving poor cannot be asked to they will use other people. They may play upon the griev- wait. Second, the unjust disproportion still remains. The ances or problems of workers or students. They may even gap is unchanged. To try and rectify this imbalance is not form uneasy alliances with radicals who feel that the pace of war. It is social justice. change is too slow. They will make use of foreign business With regard to the judiciary and the public tribunals, the

PNDC Chairman Jerry Rawlings at opening of Ho rural electrification project: "Our most important achievement—the restoration of hope and confidence even in the face of material hardship"

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 two are functioning simultaneously. Visitors who have tacking anyone on those grounds. If, however, "opponent" watched the tribunals in operation have been impressed by means someone engaged in subversion, working for the their fairness. The two main points about which misgivings overthrow of our government, then we would not be very have been expressed are the absence of the right to appeal wise to look on unconcerned! The picture is further con- against a verdict of the tribunal, and the absence of legal fused by cases where someone has committed an offense, counsel. The first point has been resolved, and there is now and also happens to disagree with our policies. The penalty an appeal procedure. The second point was never valid, for the offense has sometimes been represented as a penalty since legal representation has always been allowed. It was for disagreement! the Ghana Bar Association that decided to boycott the tri- AFRICA REPORT: Is there anything that we have not bunals, thereby leaving many accused persons without covered that you would like to convey to American readers counsel, but there have always been some lawyers appear- o\' Africa Report'? ing before the tribunals and their numbers have been in- RAWLINGS: Yes, I would like to caution your readers creasing as the confidence of the public in the tribunals has not to be deceived by the oversimplified and sometimes become more evident. distorted picture of Ghana often presented by the transna- There have been a number of cases before the ordinary tional media. It serves the purpose of some interests to rep- courts where the accused have asked for their cases to be resent this government as a group of wild-eyed radicals transferred to the tribunals, on the grounds that their pro- heedlessly demolishing the time-honored structures of soci- ceedings are more prompt, fair, and understandable to the ety, but those who have taken the time to find out what we layman. are really doing have come to different conclusions. And When you speak of crackdowns on political opponents, it radicals we may be, if this means people determined to get is necessary to choose our words carefully. If by "oppo- to the roots of our problems, but we are responsible radi- nent" you mean someone holding a different political cals, building to replace what we gradually dismantle in opinion, I do not think that the PNDC can be accused of at- order to create a sustainable, just, and dignified society. •

Fit. Lt. Rawlings with Malian President Moussa Traore: "There should be no barrier in the way of good relationships with our neighbors"

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 NIGERIA

The Coup and the Future

BY LARRY DIAMOND

What happens to a dream deferred? The coup that upended the Second Re- Does it drx up public at the close of last year was the like a raisin in the sun? logical conclusion of spent legitimacy Or jester like a sore - and dashed hopes. In retrospect, it ami then run? Does it stink like rotten meat? seems to have been inevitable. Or crust and sugar over - The causes of the failure of the Sec- like a syrupy sweet? ond Republic have been understood in Maybe it just sags the West no better than was its steady like a heavy had. deterioration. Those who had seen the Or does it explode? Second Republic as essentially stable — Langston Hughes and had grossly misinterpreted last year's elections as essentially demo- cratic can only resort to explanations Maj. Gen. Muhammed Buhari igerians are dreamers, in the best combines the reformist zeal of Murtala outside the political system itself: the N sense of the word. They are an Muhammed and the efficient politicians were the victims of the ambitious and highly expectant people. pragmatism of Olusegun Obasanjo global recession that ravaged Nigeria's Despite the divergent forms their aspi- economy, and/or the ambitions of the rations take, and the intense and com- soldiers to have their own turn at loot- plex conflicts that follow from their ing public resources. collective pursuit, two broad goals are And they have sought to construct a Fundamentally, the coup was not widely shared in Nigeria: development system of government that would not caused by the world recession, by au- and democracy. Since independence in only ensure a reasonable balance in thoritarian tendencies, or by hunger for 1960 — even well before the onset of power and resources between ethnic power on the part of military officers. the oil boom — Nigerians have groups, but also provide tor meaningful The overthrow of the Second Republic dreamed about a huge and rapid leap popular participation and responsive was caused by its politicians. By their forward in economic development, re- and accountable government. corruption and mismanagement, their sulting in improved standards of living. The dream of development, sagging hubris and abuse of power, and their for many years under the weight of violent and fraudulent pursuit of power, corruption and waste, has collapsed in they brought about their own demise. the midst of a global oil glut that has This demise was broadly welcomed — Larry Diamond is assistant professor of slashed the country's export earnings even joyously celebrated — in Nigeria, sociology at Vanderbilt University and was by more than half since 1980. In the and in this sense, the action of the mili- Fulbright Visiting Lecturer at Bayero Uni- past few years, the hope lor democracy tary has been in a popular and redemp- versity. Kano, Nigeria, during the 1982-83 tive, rather than authoritarian, spirit. academic year. His research on the Sec- had also been sinking in the spiralling ond Republic has been supported by the rot of venal, arrogant, and grossly in- The factors responsible for the fail- Institute for the Study of World Politics and effective government, which appeared ure of this second attempt at democratic the Vanderbilt University Research Coun- cil. to have no purpose other than the en- government since Nigeria's indepen- richment of the politicians and their cir- dence are apparent in the statements of cles of cronies and patrons in business. the country's new military leaders.

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 9 While these may not fully explain why no time in reaping huge gains from the this particular coup, staged by these of- awarding of contracts, import licenses, ficers, occurred when it did, they do and other government largesse. As explain why a coup was virtually in- senators and representatives junketed evitable. It was necessary to redeem the around the world and public officials country from "the grave economic pre- with no other known source of income dicament and uncertainty that an inept grew fabulously rich, there developed and corrupt leadership has imposed on an image of politics — and government our beloved nation for the past four by politicians — as nothing but the or- years," in the words of Brigadier Sani ganized expression of human greed. Abacha, announcing the coup over na- What disgusted people was not that tional radio early on December 31. there was continuing corruption — "Our economy has been hopelessly Nigerians hardly expected a sudden halt mismanaged. We have become a debtor to the long-standing networks and re- and begger nation. . . . Our leaders ciprocal ties of patronage — but that revel in squander-mania. Corruption this seemed to lose all sense of propor- and indiscipline continue to proliferate tion and social obligation. Public in complete disregard of our sad eco- treasuries were plundered and the booty nomic realities." To this indictment, Nigeria's deepest and longest economic shamelessly flaunted. Politicians were Nigeria's new leader. Major General recession since independence. But reduced in the public mind to the cari- Muhammed Buhari, soon added the what made the economic crisis a catas- catures in the cartoons of editorial rigging of the 1983 elections. Nigeria, trophe was not just bad luck. It was a pages: fat men in silk suits and he said, "had been enslaved by a chronic incapacity to make the adjust- breathtaking, flowing gowns, flashing handful of people who had been sharing ments and enforce the discipline that gold, and lumbering in and out of the wealth among themselves and who could have seen the economy through limousines. were determined to stay in office at all this critical downturn. Not only were In fact, gold Rolex watches and Mer- costs." the federal and state governments under cedes Benzes became commonplace. By any reckoning, the deterioration the civilians unable to reduce spending The real big men purchased private jets of the Nigerian economy in the past and imports to the levels that were de- and magnificent homes in London and three years has been staggering. At the manded, but they were unable to extract New York. These ostentatious displays center of this has been the decline in the sacrifices from privileged and pow- — and rumors of fantastic wealth ex- Nigerian oil revenues from a peak of erful interests that could have spread ported abroad — were juxtaposed $24 billion in I9K0 to roughly $10 bil- the costs of adjustment more fairly against the stark effects of corruption lion last year. During the four and a across social classes and economic upon people and communities: the quarter years of civilian rule, foreign sectors. shells of unfinished hospitals and currency reserves shrank from roughly The deepening popular anger and schools, the treacherous craters in un- $8 billion to less then $1 billion. Exter- alienation that swallowed the Second graded roads, the equipment for nal debt more than tripled to an esti- Republic was a product more of the boreholes that was delivered and then mated $12-15 billion, including grotesque injustice and indiscipline of left to rust — the shadows of develop- roughly $5 billion in short-term trade government during the recession than ment that was never executed because debts. Internal debt rose from 4.6 bil- of the recession itself. Underlying this the contracts were simply devices for lion naira in 1977 to 15 billion in 1982 was the fatal arrogance that led the the theft of state resources. The coun- and 22 billion (now the equivalent of politicians to squander the broad grant tryside wa>> littered with these shells of about $30 billion) last year. In 1982, of popular legitimacy and faith with a failed promise, and with signs of the national output declined by 2% and which the Second Republic began in callous waste that accompanied it — certainly it declined further last year. At 1979, following a four-year transition bulldozers abandoned alongside high- the same time, prices of basic com- to civilian government that had stimu- ways never paved, thousands of bags of modities were rising, and last year lated vigorous participation and hope. fertilizer dumped to rot in some some more than doubled. From the moment the politicians took mixed-up scam. Because the price of For a nation that depends on oil for power, they behaved as if they were in- this plunder was, ever more apparently, more than 90% of its foreign exchange vulnerable and accountable to no one. little improvement in the lives ol ordi- earnings and for 80% of its government For weeks and months following its in- nary people, the disillusionment it bred revenue, the sharp drop in world de- ception, the National Assembly preoc- was remarkably diffuse. Farmers who mand for oil could not have been any- cupied itself with its own salaries, ben- could not get their produce to market, thing but disastrous. For any nation, a efits, and accommodations. Rumors villagers who still had no access to sudden decline in export earnings by spread of tens of thousands of naira in electricity or clean drinking water or hal for more is devastating. Certainly, it cash trading hands in legislative lob- schools for their children, school leav- was the special misfortune of the Sec- bying. At the same time, ministers, ers who could not find jobs, and college ond Republic to coincide in time with governors, and other officials wasted students who were stranded abroad

10 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 without their scholarship checks, blamed the politicians lor their suffer- ing and dashed hopes. Incredibly, political corruption grew more massive and brazen even as na- tional revenue plunged and the econ- omy spun into recession. Anger be- came more intense and explosive, es- pecially among younger and more edu- cated Nigerians, as the rumors and ex- poses became ever more fantastic: Twenty million naira missing from the accounts of the Federal Capital Devel- opment Authority in Abuja. A governor trying to smuggle millions of naira cash into Britain; another shuffling millions more in beer cartons to a secret stash in his home village. A federal minister dumping 2 million British pounds onto the black market for currency in Kano. A very different kind of minister, him- self disgusted, claiming last year that Nigeria was losing 50 million naira a month — the equivalent at official rates President Shagari on the campaign trail in 1983: Inept and venal administration of of almost a billion dollars a year — to the economy undermined the aims of his austerity measures ghost workers and related forms of payroll fraud. None of this was ever proven or punished in court, but this fact only intensified people's anger. Shehu Shagari's austerity measures. commodities to bid up their prices. Last By the time that the 37-story head- And as the recession deepened, they year a World Bank study in Plateau quarters of the Nigerian External Tele- magnified and may even have largely State documented price increases of communications in Lagos became en- accounted lor the visible and acute de- 125% for sorghum, 91CA for corn, and gulfed in flames one year ago, the Sec- clines in the standard of living of large 36% for millet, "much of this due to ond Republic was already in serious segments of the population. speculative hoarding.'1 danger. But this spectacular incident of As oil income plunged, foreign ex- People suffered, especially in the suspected arson — the third to a major change became scarce and credit with cities, where families are dependent on government building in a year — mag- foreign suppliers was exhausted, dras- the food in the markets, which they nified popular disillusionment to a tically reducing the nation's import could no longer afford — or even find whole new level. For many Nigerians, capacity. This had devastating effects — and on the incomes of wage laborers and especially the disaffected intel- on both industrial production — heav- who were being laid off. Because these ligentsia, it epitomized the utter rapa- ily dependent on foreign inputs — and people did not express their mounting ciousnessof the ruling elite and demon- consumer prices. Unable to import es- pain and anger through riots, most strated that corruption was completely sential raw materials and spare parts, Western observers failed to appreciate out of control. The decay now seemed factories were forced to retrench to the depth of it— and hence the growing irreversible. Students quickly took to fractions of their capacity. Tens of fragility of the Second Republic. the streets in Lagos and several state thousands of workers were laid off. Re- In such a situation, the urgent need capitals, chanting and carrying signs cent data suggest that urban unem- was to allocate scarce foreign exchange calling for the return of the military. ployment doubled in 1983 while half of to the importation of raw material and They were shouting what a great many total manufacturing capacity was idled. basic consumer goods on a priority Nigerians were feeling, and certainly Naturally, goods produced by these basis, and to stop political manipulation the soldiers were listening. factories — such as soap and tires — of their distribution. This the Shagari The corruption and the resistance of soared in price and became extremely government promised but failed to do. legislators, ministers, and governors to difficult to obtain. Even more seri- Politicians and the well-connected any notion of accountability (including ously, prices of basic foodstuffs also continued to claim hundreds of millions the declaration ot assets required by the jumped precipitously. This was true not of dollars in hard currency for luxury constitution) were attended by gross only for imported grains, and especially trade. Smuggling proceeded unabated. mismanagement. Inept and venal ad- that precious political commodity, rice, Import licenses continued to be sold to ministration of the economy under- but also for domestic staples, as traders the highest bidders for fantastic sums. mined the stated purposes of President and intermediaries ruthlessly hoarded Many businesses that needed them des-

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 11 perately cither could not obtain them 50%. In the wake of the ruling National ment enslaved to a campaign promise to or could only do so for an exorbitant Party of Nigeria's reported landslide create new states (of which National price. Rice continued to be hoarded and victories, things were getting worse, Assembly committees had recom- frenetically traded and speculated in by not better. mended as many as 20 or 30), the pros- politicians. Those assigned to break up In the states, mismanagement was pect, as General Buhari indicated, was the bottlenecks often were the worst even more devastating. After going for not only economic collapse but po- offenders. Such was especially be- many months without pay, school litical chaos. lieved to be true ol the Presidential Task teachers walked out in one state after Given these levels of corruption and Force on Rice, and its chairman, Alhaji another. Some areas went more than a mismanagement, and the pervasive po- Umaru Dikko, President Shagari's year without schooling. In some states, litical thuggery and violence of party campaign manager and most powerful civil servants also went on strike. Hos- politics, which even by 1981 had left minister, at whose home the military pitals were without drugs and cities hundreds of dead and injured around reportedly discovered huge quantities suffered longer and more frequent the country, and given as well the of Task Force rice. breakdowns of water and electricity. A chronic fragility of public order under Under such merciless assault by the wave of new strikes loomed on the civilian rule, which had been gravely very people entrusted with responsibil- horizon, including one by nurses in interrupted on several occasions by re- ity for managing it, the economy had no January. In both the public and the pri- ligious riots in the north and was further hope of adjustment, much less recov- vate sector, the economy was breaking eroding against the onslaught of violent ery. By the end of the last year, the down. Meanwhile, greater and greater and organized urban crime, the shrew- price of detergent had quadrupled and proportions of dwindling state revenues der question may be not why the coup the price of palm oil had quintupled. In were being consumed by administra- occurred, but why it didn't happen the few months between President tion, as states doubled and tripled the sooner. Shagari's reelection and the coup, the number of Local Government Areas to Some observers have reported or retail price of rice doubled again — to lengthen the political gravy train, and speculated that there were in fact a roughly five times its price fresh off the demands for new states proliferated for number of plots from the middle ranks boat — and a Western embassy esti- much the same reason. With local gov- of the officer corps that were either ex- mated that the average basket of food ernment elections due by the end of posed in advance or quietly (but not al- for urban consumers increased by about January and the new Shagari govern- ways bloodlessly) foiled. The president

Voters in the 1983 elections: The massive rigging of the elections was the decisive element in the failure of the Second Republic

12 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 himself confided as much to an opposi- members of the deposed new Shagari nedy in this country, been immortalized tion party leader, and to a governor who cabinet, Chief Raph Uwechue, has ar- in national legend as the expression of questioned him about the rumors. gued that the coup was "provoked by the country's finest qualities and hopes, Logically, one would expect thai the the blatant excesses in the pursuit of the bearer of a national vision that was acute disillusionment of young Nige- naked power by some insensitive cruelly interrupted. It is not surprising rian intellectuals and professionals with politicians." We will never know that General Buhari and his colleagues the Second Republic and the socio- whether, as Uwechue maintains, the on the new Supreme Military Council economic stagnation and decay would coup would not have taken place if the (two-thirds of whom served in the Mu- also be intensely felt among the junior elections had been seen as free and fair, hammed/Obasanjo government) should officer corps. In fact, the British or whether Shagari would really have identify themselves with this legacy. Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) re- been reelected if they had been, or General Buhari, 41, appears to com- ported a widespread belief that the whether, as Uwechue also maintains, bine the reformist zeal of Murtala senior officers struck when they did to the new government (composed of a Muhammed and the efficient prag- preempt a bloody coup planned by manifestly higher caliber of personnel), matism of Obasanjo. Upon assuming junior officers for some time in sensitive to the urgent challenge, would office as military governor of the then January. have come to grips with corruption. In Northeastern State after the August Preemption may have been a consid- the rigging of the elections and, ac- 1975 coup, Buhari led investigations eration in the timing of the coup, but the cording to Uwechue, "the erosion of into allegations of corruption against a legitimacy of such a drastic step was at public confidence in the political sys- number of public and private compa- least as important a factor. In a recent tem, as it had been operated in the pre- nies, as well as the previous military interview with Agence France-Presse, vious four years," Nigerian history was governor. After the abortive 1976 Major General Ibrahim Babangida, the robbed of the opportunity to unveil the coup, he became federal commissioner new army chief of staff, revealed that answers to these questions. for petroleum and energy and chairman the armed forces had begun to be dis- For Nigeria, the immediate future is of the Nigerian National Petroleum turbed at the deterioration in the coun- too fraught with peril to dwell upon the Corporation. He has been credited with try by the middle of 1981, and had con- imponderables of the recent past. The shrewd and pragmatic administration of sidered staging a coup in July of last new government of General Muham- Nigeria's petroleum policy, percep- year, but had decided to give the civil- med Buhari faces an economic and so- tively reading market forces and re- ians a chance, through the electoral cial crisis pregnant with threats to its sponding to them flexibly and effec- process, to demonstrate that the demo- own authority. Its composition and its tively. Experts especially praised his cratic system could work. In other initial statements and actions suggest carefully crafted and extremely suc- words, the military did not want to be that it is acutely alert to the scope of cessful incentives to boost sagging ex- responsible for the country's failure to what is at stake in the coming months. ploration and to develop new reserves. conduct free and fair elections on Despite its striking youth (Defense Buhari has been characterized as schedule. Minister D.Y. Bali, at 43, appears to be moderately conservative, but in fact he The massive rigging and disastrous the oldest officer on the Supreme Mili- appears nonideological, even openly administration of the 1983 elections, tary Council), this is a sober and expe- distrustful of ideologies and rigid dog- documented here (see Africa Report, rienced government. In his maiden mas. His primary concern appears to be November-December 1983) was the press conference, General Buhari em- the fundamental practical question of final, decisive element in the failure of phasized, "We are an offshoot of the national development: How can the Second Republic. Even before the last military government" of Generals Nigeria realize its enormous promise? elections, a large proportion of the Murtala Muhammed and Olusegun In this sense, he is progressive, and so population, and certainly the bulk of the Obasanjo. Theirs was the most aggres- is his government. If it can be said to disaffected students, businessmen, and sively reformist and probably the most reflect or represent any constituency or professionals, were hoping that the effective government Nigeria has had. segment of Nigerian society, it could be military would intervene to save the Before he was assassinated in a failed termed the "progressive establish- situation. But they too waited to see coup attempt in early 1976, less than ment." whether change was possible by con- seven months after taking power, The leading officers are men in their stitutional means. The pervasive and Murtala Muhammed shook Nigeria's late 30s or early 40s, commissioned staggering malpractices during the five corrupt and sluggish administration to about the time of the first coup in 1966, rounds of voting indicated it was not. its roots, dismissing or retiring over or shortly after. Though Buhari himself As former Army Chief of Staff General 10,000 public servants, including all comes from the largest ethnic group, T.Y. Danjuma (a key figure in the last the state governors and a number of the Hausa-Fulani (from which also military government) recently ob- military officers. At the same time, he have come the two civilian leaders and served, "Democracy had been in launched the country into the imagina- Murtala Muhammed), the new gov- jeopardy for the past four years. It died tively staged transition to civilian rule ernment "reflects the federal charac- with the elections. The army only that his successor. General Obasanjo, ter" of the country in its ethnic com- buried it." faithfully executed. Murtala Muham- position, and most of the new military One of the most widely respected med has, like the late President Ken- governors are indigenes. The new chief

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 13 ford Okilo. Other appointments reflect both experience and social status. The new minister of external affairs, Dr. Ibrahim Gambari, is both an expert on foreign affairs and the son of an emir. Because this government appears to represent the best of the Nigerian es- tablishment, both military and civilian, it is burdened with a special challenge. Its failure is likely to be read by younger Nigerians in the universities, the trade unions, and other organized groups as the failure of the establishment, the futility of incremental change, and the bankruptcy of moderation (and perhaps even "reason"'). If it fails to make sig- nificant and visible progress in reduc- ing corruption and waste and re- generating the economy, political momentum will shift to more radical Anger over the injustice of gross inequalities—the arrogance of extravagant and extreme perspectives, both secular wealth and the simple, terrible pain of poverty and religious, which assert the need for a sweeping transformation of society, and which see violence as the only of staff. Supreme Headquarters (second as army chief of staff, figures to be a means for purging the system of the rot in command to Buhari), is Brigadier strong voice in the new government, as that has overtaken it. Babatunde Idiagbon, a Yoruba, who do Magoro and Vatsa, whose influence Its initial performance suggests that was given high marks for his perfor- is suggested by their dual membership the Buhari government is alive to the mance as the final military adminis- in the cabinet and the Supreme Mili- challenge and committed to bringing trator of Borno State (part of the old tary Council, a privilege shared by about real change. In swearing in his Northeastern State where Buhari only two others (Bali and Attorney new cabinet on January IK, General served) before the return to civilian General Chike Offodile, an lgbo). Buhari warned, "The SMC will keep a rule. Several key figures are from It is significant that only seven of the keen and watchful eye on your perfor- northern minority groups in the "Mid- 18 members of the Buhari cabinet are mance, your lifestyle, and your general dle Belt" region, which produced military officers, and that most of the conduct in office." He declared that his Nigeria's longest-ruling head of state, 11 civilians have extensive experience government "will not tolerate fraud, General Yakubu Gowon. The new in government and public life. Six of indiscipline, corruption, misuse, and minister of defense, and one of Ni- the 11 have Ph.D.s or medical degrees. abuse of office." President Shagari had geria's most distinguished soldiers. Ma- Prominent among this group are the made similar declarations, but Buhari jor General Domkat Y. Bali, is(likeGo- new minister of commerce and indus- also told his ministers to declare their won) from Plateau State. Major Gen- tries. Dr. Mahmud Tukur, and the new assets within six weeks, and gave them eral Babangida is from Niger State, and minister of petroleum and energy. Prof. three months to undertake a critical re- a graduate of the Provincial Second- Tarn David-West. Dr. Tukur, the first view of all projects and programs in ary School in Bida, from which have vice-chancellor of Bayero University, their ministries. Symbols of the arro- also come the new minister of internal Kano, is a highly respected academi- gance and extravagance of the Second affairs. Brigadier Mohammed Magoro; cian, a progressive Muslim intellectual, Republic have been dispensed with. the new minister of the Federal Capital and a leading figure in a far-flung net- Official Mercedes Benz limousines (in- Territory, Major General Mamman work of northern intellectuals, profes- cluding that of the head of state) have Jiya Vatsa; and the new governor of sionals, and civil servants that had be- been replaced with locally assembled Sokoto State. Brigadier Garba Duba. come increasingly disenchanted with Peugeots, and the new governors have Brigadier Magoro, from a non-Muslim the corruption and incompetence of the been pointedly instructed to regard their area of Sokoto State, was commis- Shagari government. He is the epitome postings as temporary service and not to sioner of transport in the Obasanjo ad- of the progressive establishment. Prof. allow themselves to be addressed as ministration. General Vatsa, born in David-West, a virologist of interna- "Your Excellency." Plateau and raised in Abuja, has pub- tional reputation and a commissioner in Already, a number of steps have lished a dozen volumes of poetry, in- the last military government in Rivers been taken to combat corruption and cluding one about Abuja, and has stated State, was an outspoken critic of cor- waste. Seventeen of 35 permanent that creative sensitivity is a necessary ruption in the governments of President secretaries in the federal civil service component of leadership. Babangida, Shagari and of Rivers Governor Mel- and 34 senior police officers have been

14 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 forced into retirement. Two hundred tial foodstuffs in particular. Contracts foreign exchange. This means substan- forty customs officials were dismissed are also being reviewed at the federal tial new international credit and also for corruption at the end of January. and state level, and those that appear to more oil income, which is unlikely un- These appear only to be the first in- have been fraudulently inflated are less Nigeria's current OPEC production stallments of larger shake-ups. In the likely to be revoked. Governors have quota of 1.3 million barrels per day is aftermath of the coup, more than 650 been instructed to see that all salary ar- raised to something much closer to the politicians and public servants in the rears are paid to teachers and civil ser- 2.3 million b/d capacity. Second Republic were detained, and vants within three months. The Basic Nigeria is in the grip of a serious 453 are reportedly still in custody. The Travel Allowance — the amount of long-term crisis. It cannot be resolved list of the 71 who are being held at the foreign exchange travelers are allowed without deep reforms in the structure of Kirikiri maximum-security prison is a to take out — has been slashed from the economy and the conduct of gov- "who's who" of former cabinet 500 to 100 naira and the expectation is ernment. Nigeria's new leaders appear ministers, governors, and legislative that General Buhari will present an aus- to have the talent and the will to make or leaders. Several of the former ruling terity budget even sparer than the one at least to begin these reforms. But, party's biggest barons who were abroad recently proposed by President Sha- unfortunately, not all of the conditions during the coup or escaped in its wake gari. which cut public spending by for progress are within Nigeria's con- — including Umaru Dikko, former 40%. Known sites of illicit foreign cur- trol. Much will be determined by the NPN Chairman Adisa Akinloye, rency exchange have been raided, and international banking community and former Attorney General Richard black-market operations have sharp- the governments of major Western and Akinjide, businessman Isiyaku Ib- ly receded, at least lor the moment. OPEC nations. Their stake in Nigeria's rahim, and former Senate President Unavoidably, the critical condition future generates a practical (if not Joseph Wayas — have been declared of Nigeria's external finances has been moral) interest in sharing the sacrifices wanted persons. The bank accounts of an early top priority of the new regime. that are needed now. Banks that lent all detained and wanted former officials The former secretary to the Obasanjo eagerly to a massively corrupt govern- have been frozen and banks have also government, Alhaji Liman Ciroma, ment have an interest in restructuring been ordered to restrict withdrawals of was quickly dispatched to Washington the debt of a government that is com- "unusually large amounts." State and and London to confer with Nigeria's mitted to the reforms that will make federal legislators have been ordered to major creditors, and General Buhari possible its repayment. Western gov- pay back their car and housing loans, has held private discussions with am- ernments and banks have a long-term and in some cases their salaries, with bassadors and special representatives of interest in repatriating to Nigeria those immediate effect. Huge sums of cash the Western nations to which Nigeria funds of private Nigerians that the have been seized from the homes of owes most of its short-term trade debts. Buhari government can demonstrate leading politicians, including over 1 Another top official was dispatched on were stolen from the country, as well as million naira from the home of I mo a tour of other OPEC (Organization of all the assets acquired with those funds. Governor Sam Mbakwe and 3.4 million Petroleum Exporting Countries) capi- Western governments have an interest naira from the home of former senator tals, and negotiations were resumed in seeing that the guilty are brought to and recently elected Kano Governor with the International Monetary Fund justice, and so in cooperating, through Sabo BakinZuwo. Chief of Staff Idiag- for a three-year credit of more than $3 treaty arrangements and due process, in bon informed the nation that close to 90 billion. the extradition of any wanted persons million naira a year would be saved There is little mystery as to what whose return Nigeria requests. Wealthy simply from the statutory emoluments Nigeria needs and is seeking in these OPEC nations that depend on Nigeria's of National Assembly members. In negotiations. It needs time to sort out continued membership and cooperation fact, the total savings, including aides, the wreckage left by the civilian gov- in the maintenance of stable prices have perquisites, administrative expenses, ernment and to implement reforms. It an interest in raising Nigeria's produc- lobbying, and all of the costs of 19 state needs understanding from the interna- tion quota, even at the expense of some legislatures with more than 1,300 tional banking community that struc- decline in their own. members collectively, is clearly in the tural reforms (such as devaluation and Beneath a surface that is once again hundreds of millions. removal of subsidies for fuel and food), calm, there persists a dangerous level of Economically, the clear priorities are if implemented too deeply and precip- anger and discontent over the injustice to enforce real discipline in public itously, may generate unacceptable of gross inequalities, the arrogance of spending and to bring down consumer hardship among the long-suffering extravagant wealth, and the simple, prices. Initially, the latter was done in lower classes, especially in the volatile terrible pain of poverty and declining some markets by angry soldiers at the cities. With a projected oil income of standards of life. It is in the interest of point of a gun, but the new military $10-11 billion this year, a debt service every responsible party to this drama to governments in the states now appear to of $3.5 billion, and a severe drought in cooperate in addressing and relieving be moving more rationally and sys- the north (reducing the grain harvest by the roots of this anger. For if there is not tematically to sell off the hoards of a third) that is expected to require a 25% real relief and tangible progress in the basic commodities that have been dis- increase in food imports to $2.4 billion, coming years, sooner or later this anger covered and to fix new prices for essen- Nigeria also urgently needs more will explode. D

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 15 UPPER VOLTA Six Months into Sankara's Revolution

BY HOWARD SCHISSEL

n Ouagadougou, a handwritten sign antiimperialist revolutionary course. their own private interests than de- I taped on the flank of an aging How did Upper Volta, reputed for its fending those of their constituencies. American convertible boldly states: freewheeling political debate, press The democratic process had proven to "Down With Government Luxury." freedom, and activist trade unions, ar- be ineffective in a country that is ranked The car, previously used for official rive at such a situation? among the poorest in Africa and with functions, is now driven round the city When a bevy of officers behind Col. the highest infant mortality rate in the by a group of gendarmes on mission. Saye Zerbo toppled President Sangoule world. As in Flight Lieutenant Jerry Rawlings' Lamizana's short-lived third republic in The Saye Zerbo putsch ushered in a Ghana and more recently in Nigeria, November 1980, civilian politicians new and contradictory period for Upper the group of officers who seized power had been once again thoroughly dis- Volta. It brought to power younger, in Upper Volta last August 4 were credited. The label of democracy, as in better educated officers intent on intro- motivated by the desire to clean up gov- Nigeria, was the fig leaf that covered ducing basic change. This was a new ernment affairs and establish a mod- over widespread corruption. Politicians phenomenon, different from the 1966 icum of honesty and responsibility in often spent more time looking after and 1974 coups that preserved the the state administration. But the rise to power of 33-year-old Captain Thomas Sankara also marks a watershed in Upper Volta's turbulent postcolonial history. Surely coups d'etat are nothing new in Upper Volta, but as one Western UPPER VOLTA diplomat in the Voltaic capital candidly admits: "Sankara's coup was not just another coup, for it opens up a whole new chapter in Voltaic politics." In this respect, the Upper Volta coup has much more in common with the events in Ghana than those in Nigeria. As in Accra, a group of radical young •Ouahigouya officers, backed by the trade unions and left-wing political forces, swept aside Mali the old political establishment and Koudougou • (•) OUAGADOUGOU steered the country on a populist and

• Bobo Dioulasso

Howard Schisset is a Paris-based free- lance journalist specializing in French- speaking Africa as well as economic questions relating to African natural re- sources. Ivory Coast

16 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 exisiting state structure, only shitting political personnel. But the Military Committee of Redressment for Na- tional Progress (CMRPN) was far from being a homogenous body. The cleav- ages that affected civilian politics had moved to the army, shattering the myth of armed forces unity. During the two-year period that the CMRPN was in power, it was incapable of providing Upper Volta with clear political or economic guidelines. For example, it was unable to propose pro- grams to stimulate the country's ag- riculture, win financial backing for the Tambao manganese mine, or properly manage the financial system. Corrup- tion nourished as never hefore, and the CMRPN was paralyzed by the con- tending forces within it. The boisterous Capt. Thomas Sankara with Fit. Lt. Jerry Rawlings: As in Ghana, the Voltaic coup trade union movement led the struggle was motivated by a desire to clean up government affairs against the CMRPN. After months of latent crisis, and on the eve ol President Zerbo's planned trip to Paris, the gov- ernment was toppled by a coalition of In mid-May, a series of strange and military equipment. Meanwhile, Presi- "young turks." still partially unexplained events took dent Ouedraogo began losing authority, The People's Salvation Council place in Ouagadougou. The day after and a power vacuum developed in (CSP), which emerged from the Guy Penne, President Francois Mitter- Ouagadougou. November 1982 coup, was a motley rand's adviser on African affairs, ar- At the beginning of August, pro- group of officers without a precise po- rived in the Voltaic capital, a mini-coup Sankara forces struck first and seized litical line. The radical nationalist wing took place, leading to the arrest and the reins of power after a brief skirmish was led by Thomas Sankara, who was detention of Prime Minister Sankara. in Ouagadougou. The CSP was re- appointed prime minister. Moderates Pro-Sankara forces claim that the coup placed by the new National Revolu- found a leader in Maj. Jean-Baptiste was masterminded in the French em- tionary Council (CNR) with Thomas Ouedraogo, a little-known compromise bassy by Penne, in collaboration with Sankara as president and minister of the candidate named to the presidency. Col. Some. French officials deny such interior. Most of his close military as- Older conservative officers were repre- accusations, maintaining that Penne's sociates also received key posts in the sented by Col. Yorian Gabriel Some, presence in Ouagadougou was just government: Capt. Compaore, minister commander-in-chief of the armed "coincidental." In any case, moder- delegate to the President's Office: Bat- forces. It was obvious that the CSP ates within the CSP and in neighboring talion Chief Jean-Baptiste Lingani, could not last for an extended period. countries, especially Ivory Coast, minister of defense: Capt. Henri The question was which faction would breathed easier after Sankara's re- Zongo. minister of state enterprises; best be able to mobilize for a takeover moval. and Commander Abdou Salem Kabore, and with how much foreign backing. In carrying out the coup, however. minister of public health. President Ouedraogo soon proved anti-Sankara forces behind Col. Some The radical political factions that highly ineffectual, and Prime Minister slipped up. They arrested all the prime backed Sankara were well-represented Sankara rose to the political forefront. minister's close political and military in the new cabinet. The Patriotic The differences between Sankara's associates with the exception of Capt. League for Development (LIPAD), an populist discourse and his growing Blaise Compaore. Compaore was offshoot of the pro-Soviet African in- friendliness toward Ghana and Libya, therefore able to rally the parachute dependence Party (PAD, held the and President Ouedraogo's call tor commando center at P6, a town about dominant position. LIPAD ideologue reinforcing ties with traditional allies 10 miles north of the Ghanaian frontier, Adama Toure — who was Sankara's like France and Ivory Coast soon be- and force the authorities to release San- and Compaore's teacher — was named came blatant. Sankara even took the in- kara and other detainees. The May to the Ministry of Information. Arba itiative to invite Col. Muammar Qad- confrontation ended in a stalemate. In Diallo, who studied in the United dafy to Ouagadougou without consult- the following weeks, Libyan arms re- States, was appointed as foreign ing the nominal head ol' state. By early portedly reached P6 in great quantity minister, while half a dozen other spring 1983, it was evident that tension through Ghana, while Col. Some's LIPAD activists received portfolios. had reached the boiling point. forces were reinforced with French The pro-Chinese Union for Communist

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 17 Struggle (ULC) was also included in (CSV) has not joined other moderate try. One such issue hammered home by the cabinet. The pro-Albanian Voltaic trade unions in their call for discussions Sankara is the place of Voltaic women Revolutionary Communist Party with the government on the question of in the revolution. Speaking to a (PCRV) refused to join the govern- union-CDR relations. Nonetheless, gathering of women in Ouagadougou, ment, protesting that the military coup CSV Secretary General Soumane he began by saying that he would not was not a popular revolution. Toure has vented his displeasure at keep them for long "since their reac- To consolidate its hold on power, the CDR encroachment. tionary husbands were at home waiting 1 CNR rapidly started to restructure the Members of the PCRV and ULC for .supper.' Voltaics were not used to state administration. The country was support the CDRs as a means of reining language such as, "To make a woman re-divided into 25 administrative dis- believe that she is inferior to man is just tricts headed by a newly appointed high another method of exploitation and commissioner. In the senior ranks of domination. The women are considered the civil service and the judiciary, as baby-making machines. . . women functionaries too closely associated are a source of profit to exploitative with theancien regime were dismissed. men... a source of pleasure." House cleaning also went vigorously After consolidating his position on forward in military ranks. The Repub- the home front, President Sankara has lican Guard was dissolved, and unreli- set out to break Upper Volta's isolation able officers were retired. The com- in regional politics. Many of the mod- mand structure was reorganized and erate Francophone states were fearful units whose loyalty was judged doubt- of what they perceived as a Marxist- ful were reshuffled. backed admirer of Libya as leader of A significant act was the formation Upper Volt a. President Sankara of Committees for the Defense of the showed his diplomatic acumen by Revolution (CDR) on the local level. quickly patching up relations with Modeled on Ghana's People's Defense Mali, ending Upper Volta's veto Committees, the CDRs have been against the latter's entry into the West given an educational, economic, and African Monetary Union (UMOA). military role. Each CDR has five President Seyni Kountche of neigh- elected representatives. This has led to boring Niger was assured that the Vol- intensive infighting between different taic revolution was not for export. Ef- factions that are trying to wrest control forts were made to play down the Lib- of certain CDRs. For example, in the Another Sahel drought: The most yan connection, and the Soviet pres- immediate limits to the Voltaic Yatenga area, backers of former Na- revolution will be economic ence is very discreet in Ouagadougou. tional Assembly head Gerard Kango Despite Voltaic attempts to paper Ouedraogo are active in the CDRs. The over the cracks in bilateral relations PCRV has made a special effort to in- with the Ivory Coast, a modus vivendi filtrate CDRs in the Ouagadougou area. in LIPAD influence in the labor move- has not been worked out. President Many CDR elections have been voided ment. Some observers even suspect that Houphouet-Boigny is fearful that the and new ones held. the CDRs could prove to be the embryo coming to power of Sankara could have The ultimate goal of the CDRs is still of a future political party controlled by destabilizing effects throughout the undefined, as is their relationship with the armed forces. By playing such a subregion and particularly in his own the country's other institutions. The role, they would help provide the army country. Moreover, he resents the trade union movement, which played a with the structured political organiza- growing rapprochement between central role in the struggle against past tion it needs to counter the existing po- Upper Voita and Ghana. The two rev- governments, is apprehensive because litical parties. olutions have much in common, and at it perceives that the CDRs are restrict- If Sankara remains unquestionably the end of last year joint military man- ing its activities. In theory, the CDRs popular in the country — he was the euvers were held as part of a broader are meant to be the revolution's repre- hero of the 1974 border war with Mali military and political alliance. sentatives in the workplace, but in — the CNR might require its own inde- Pragmatically, President Sankara practice they have been moving into the pendent political organization to carry has tried to smooth out the rough spots unions' traditional sphere of action. forward the radical revolution it in Franco-Voltaic relations. He at- Does the Sankara regime view the preaches. Intense efforts are being tended the last Franco-African summit unions as potential trouble-makers, and made to mobilize the youth, in both the conference, but stayed away from the is it therefore seeking to circumscribe towns and the countryside, in the fight official dinner following a French dip- their influence? In any case, the union against Upper Volta's feudalistic social lomatic faux pas: Sankara was met at movement is far from homogenous in order. Sankara has startled some of his the airport by Guy Penne, who had been its composition. The LIPAD-controlled countrymen by raising themes long ab- accused of coordinating the May coup Voltaic Trade Union Confederation sent from political debate in the coun- against him. Since then, the com-

18 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 promised French ambassador has been the Paris Club will then meet to discuss left-wing forces that make up the gov- replaced and Paris has granted some fi- the restructuring of Upper Volta's ernment, and they are awaiting the pos- nancial assistance. And although Upper foreign debt. sible erosion of the CNR's mass politi- Volta is not a major preoccupation of Senior Voltaic officials reckon that cal base. American policy in Africa, the Reagan the physical defense of the revolution is President Sankara has shown that he administration can only frown on the still the top priority. They point out that is not blinded by revolutionary rhetoric radical regime that has emerged, and opposition forces abroad as well as in and is capable of adapting his program United Nations Ambassador Jeane the country have not been idle since last and approach to concrete Voltaic Kirkpatrick was reportedly annoyed by August and that they can count on pow- realities. His personal charisma is intact anti-U.S. votes by Upper Volta in the erful backers. The fear of mercenary and the group of young officers around Security Council. intervention is also strong in ruling cir- him still are popular. Ultimately, it will Perhaps the most immediate limits to cles, leading to a curfew and tight se- be the tight unity of these military lead- the Voltaic revolution will be eco- curity control on the roads and in the ers that will guarantee the regime's sta- nomic. Already the government is at airport. The Entente Council zone, bility. Nevertheless, President Sankara loggerheads with the private trading where important leaders reside, is is fully cognizant of the fact that large sector that is tearful of possible nation- ringed off from traffic and armed segments of the Voltaic population — alization measures. Consequently, it guards nervously patrol the area. especially youth, workers, and junior has practically halted new investments The opposition forces, yet to or- civil servants — are expecting the rev- and kept imports to a minimum. The ganize a political party or propose a olution to improve their living condi- slowdown in economic activity has platform, are composed of military and tions. The same holds true in the coun- exacerbated the chronic unemployment civilian leaders of the CMRPN and the tryside, but direct pressure from the situation in the country. Since the gov- CSP. Their principal base of action is rural areas on the government is less ernment derives most of its revenues the Ivory Coast, where over a million important. For the Sankara regime, from customs receipts, the go-slow im- Voltaic migrant workers are employed, 1984 will mark the end of its grace port policy deprives it of valuable in- giving them the opportunity to recruit period. It will have to demonstrate to come. The struggle for control of the anti-Sankara forces. The opposition is the population that it can not only dis- cereals market has also been bubbling closely scrutinizing the revolutionary mantle old political and economic just beneath the surface. To make process in search of signs of cracks de- structures, but also effectively mobilize things worse, the renewed Sahel veloping in the disparate coalition of the country for the future. • drought will make 1984 a dark year for Voltaic agriculture. Economic aggregates are all in the red and the financial hole is getting deeper. From CFA 52.2 billion in 1981, the trade deficit climbed to CFA 61 billion last year. The balance of payments deficit rose to over CFA 40 billion in 1983, against CFA 37.5 bil- lion the previous year. The foreign debt crunch is beginning to hurt: from a CFA 5.6 billion debt repayment in 1983, Upper Volta will have to shell out around CFA 12 billion in 1985. (In 1981, $1 = CFA 271.73.) The burden is certainly too heavy for the fragile Voltaic economy. As Ghana did in 1983, Upper Volta will probably have to sit down with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) later this year to hammer out an economic stabilization program followed by financial credits. The condition imposed as a prerequis- ite for such assistance — cuts in sub- sidies on basic foodstuffs and govern- ment services plus severe financial constraints — will certainly be a bitter pill to swallow for the Voltaic regime, but alternatives are limited. If an Rawlings and Sankara reviewing troops in Pd, Upper Volta, during late 1983 joint agreement is worked out with the IMF, military maneuvers

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 19 IVORY COAST Hard Times for an African Success Story

BY GEORGE McFARLANE

vory Coast's President, Felix in 1985, necessitating another request other international financial institutions I Houphouet-Boigny, told his coun- for rescheduling. that are negotiating new measures to trymen last December that although the The debt problem was exacerbated stabilize ihe Ivorian economy. How- year 1983 had been difficult for most by the continued rise of the U.S. dollar ever, analysts note that the economy Ivorians, 1984 would be even worse. against the French franc, to which the has yet to weather the worst of the And as the year began, economic reces- Ivory Coast's CFA franc is pegged. storm. sion, government cash-flow problems, According to private bankers in Abid- WAITING FOR RAIN drought, and the question of political jan, 40 percent of the government's succession had helped to make his pre- external debt must be repaid in dollars. Drought in parts of north and central diction an accurate one. The dollar more than doubled in value Ivory Coast is expected to cause a drop against the CFA franc over the past in cocoa production for 1984. Despite "LA CONJONCTURE" three years. the predictions by speculators on the As with most African nations, the Economic hardships have led the European trading exchanges, Ivorian Ivory Coast's current economic prob- government to engage in some serious cocoa production this season is not ex- lems are due primarily to the severe belt-tightening. In 1983, the govern- pected to surpass 350,000 tons. If true, drop in prices for raw materials, one of ment announced an austerity budget demand for cocoa on the world market the effects of the world recession. In that allowed increases only in the field would exceed supply for the first time two years, revenues from the country's of education and reduced the number of in several years. major exports — cocoa and coffee — ministries from 35 to 28. It also began The drought is also causing severe dropped to 25 percent of their 1981 trying to collect overdue real estate and power shortages in the country. The levels. And although prices were be- income taxes. In addition, the use of rivers powering the country's three ginning to rise in early 1984, they were most official vehicles was restricted to hydroelectric dams have been reduced not keeping pace with the country's 14 business hours and official travel was to mere streams by drought in the north. percent rate of inflation. reduced. Large numbers of civil ser- As a result, only one dam is currently The drop in revenues aggravated the vants were forced to retire. And the operating, and that at only 30 percent of country's debt burden. In December, government launched investigations the Ivorian government announced it into charges of corruption in a number was seeking to reschedule more than $ 1 of agencies. It is common knowledge in billion in foreign debt falling due in Abidjan that several dozen officials in 1984. Economists said an additional state-owned housing agencies are in $1.2 billion of the country's estimated prison on charges of diverting millions $7 billion external debt would fall due of dollars from public housing projects. Some of these detained are influential members of the political elite, but the president has vowed that no official will George McFarlane is an American jour- benefit from his protection and has nalist working in West Africa who writes for given a free hand to the investigating a number of publications and information commission composed primarily of services. young party cadres, Such measures are likely to please the International Monetary Fund and

20 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 capacity. The situation is not expected luxury cars are somewhat less in evi- tire. However, during a visit to London to improve markedly until the rains dence and champagne celebrations at in mid-1983, the president hinted at the come, it is hoped, in June. Abidjan's posh restaurants are less fre- way he intends to designate his political A thermal unit at Vridi in Abidjan. quent. heir. operating at full capacity, is supplying The economic problems, however, The position of vice-president has 25 percent of the country's needs, but have weakened confidence among been that of designated successor since that is not enough to prevent a serious foreign investors, and underscored the its creation at the 1980 congress of shortfall. The result has been a program uncertainty of political succession in Ivory Coast's sole legal party, the of rotating power cuts that, aside from the country. Democratic Party. However, the posi- inconveniencing local residents, has tion has never been filled. During the forced a reduction in industrial produc- APRES"LE VIEUX" trip to London, in remarks that were tion. Most factories have been ordered Unlike Cameroon and Senegal, widely reported at home in the govern- to reduce electrical consumption by at which have undergone their political ment-owned media, Houphouet- least one-third or face mandatory cuts. transitions and are now led by young, Boigny said the country would have a And a shortage of diesel fuel, due to a highly respected technocrats, Ivorian vice-president by 1985, who would be breakdown at the Vridi refinery, has politics are still dominated by the chosen by the party. The remark was made it difficult for companies to country's founding father, "Le widely interpreted to mean that the power their auxiliary generators. As a Vieux," as he is affectionately known. party would choose the vice-president result, some factories in the Abidjan who, as he approaches his eightieth at its next congress. Many politically area are operating three days a week. birthday, has no designated successor. savvy Ivorians believe the remark also Others have closed down temporarily, The uncertainty has caused Ivory Coast meant that the president intends to stand causing a rise in unemployment. to fall in foreign investors' political risk for reelection in 1985 if he continues to The drop in spending by government ratings. enjoy his remarkably robust health. and private industry has caused a sig- The current economic problems, Whether the president would complete nificant fall in business activity. moreover, make it all the more difficult the five-year term or retire a la Senghor Wholesalers and retailers alike are re- for President Houphouet-Boigny to re- in mid-term remains a popular topic of porting losses. Most foreign businesses have reduced their inventories and staffs. And although most say they would like to remain in Ivory Coast, high rents and operating costs are causing some to consider closing re- gional offices and warehouses in the country if the situation does not im- prove in the next year. In addition, offshore oil exploration has virtually ceased. The drop in pe- troleum prices has sent exploration crews and their suppliers south to the Congo, Angola, and Gabon, where drilling has been more lucrative. Two offshore fields continue to produce an estimated 35.000 to 50.000 barrels per day, but the rise in consumption due to the power shortages has once again made Ivory Coast a net importer of oil. Nevertheless, the Ivorian govern- ment has addressed its problems with more responsibility than many African nations and the austerity measures are said to have produced an increase in ef- ficiency. As President Houphouet- Boigny remarked during his New Year's address, "la conjoncture," as the crisis is called, is a good thing, "be- cause it will make Ivorians economize" on their resources. Indeed, conspicuous consumption is far less fashionable in Abidjan than in previous years. The Cocoa harvesting: Drought will cause a drop in cocoa production in 1984

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 21 discussion at cocktail parties and politi- technocrats who were politically "edu- dynamic and charismatic and is said to cal rump sessions throughout the coun- cated" by the president, such as Balla have ties with the president's inner cir- try. Keita, Denis Bra-Kanon, and Dona cle. Dioulo has a significant number of The situation has not helped to calm Fologo, ministers of education, ag- supporters within the Assembly, but he the queasy stomachs of foreign inves- riculture, and maritime affairs, respec- is not a member of the political bureau. tors and diplomatic observers who tively. However, these officials owe Consequently, others are often able to worry about a political vacuum in the most of their power to their appointed take credit for his ideas. next few years. Indeed, the battle for positions and are considered by many at Despite all the jockeying for position the succession is being heatedly waged this time to lack the broad political sup- and the posturing by certain visible behind the staid facade of the party, and port needed to obtain the position. frontrunners, most knowledgeable virtually every political issue these days At present, one of the most likely lvorians believe that the choice of suc- leads to a dispute between the potential possibilities is Henri Konan-Bedie, cessor has not been made yet. When it candidates for the vice-presidency. president of the National Assembly, is made, they say, it will be the presi- Among the possible successors often who has served in a number of ca- dent who makes it, as long as his health mentioned are such veteran politicians pacities in the cabinet and is an influ- and political stamina remain strong. as Mathieu Ekra and August Denise, ential member of the party's political Meanwhile, the media, which remains who often stand in as acting president bureau. Konan-Bedie has strong sup- tightly controlled by the government, when "Le Vieux" is unavailable. port in the Assembly and has demon- continues to remind lvorians that they However, they also are considered el- strated an ability to turn local issues into can expect to have a vice-president next derly and lack the president's charisma national ones. One of his major oppo- year, but that otherwise they should not and political ability. Several others oc- nents is Emmanuel Dioulo, mayor of be concerned by the "invisible" ques- casionally mentioned are young Abidjan, who is considered to be tion.

FRIENDS AND NEIGHBORS Political stability, aside from its eco- nomic advantages, has meant stable foreign relations for the Ivory Coast. The country continues to maintain good relations with most nations of the in- dustrialized world. It also plays an im- portant role in West African affairs, if a more subdued one in pan-African fora. Relations with France, the former colonial power, are excellent, based on longstanding political and econom- ic ties and enhanced in recent years by the personal friendship between Houphouet-Boigny and President Francois Mitterrand. Several thousand French "cooperants" work in Ivorian ministries, public service facilities, and schools. Fiance remains Ivory Coast's primary trading partner. And the pri- vate French presence in the country is still the largest in Africa, though somewhat diminished from the peak of 50,000 French citizens three years ago. Despite differences over cocoa pric- ing policies and the role of speculators in general in the world commodity markets, relations with the United States continue to be good. And al- though the two governments may dif- fer, at least publicly, on such matters as Namibia's independence and South Africa's apartheid policies, they agree on the role of free enterprise in eco- nomic development, the perceived In 1983, coffee revenues dropped to 25% of their 1981 levels dangers of communism, and what they

22 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 consider to be Libya's destabilizing in- fluence on the continent. An estimated 1,000 Americans live in Ivory Coast and more than 60 private enterprises are licensed to operate in the country, pri- marily in the areas of petroleum, man- ufacturing, banking, and business sup- ply. West Germany and Britain are con- sidered good friends, although they oc- cupy less important trading positions. However, the Ivorian government is trying to improve trade with these na- tions. Numerous trading delegations have visited Ivory Coast in the past two years and Houphouet-Boigny has paid highly publicized visits to both nations in the past year. Japan remains primarily an eco- nomic partner and has taken a large share of the ivorian market for au- Fit. Lt. Jerry Rawlings of Ghana with President Houphoudt-Boigny during tomobiles and electronic products. The December visit to Yamoussoukro: Relations are warming Ivorian government has also announced that in 1985, a Japanese firm is to build a plant that will manufacture stereos, television sets, and other electronic military exercises in November in P6 in "Ivorianization" campaign. Firms are products for marketing throughout the presence of Ivorian military observ- finding it increasingly difficult to ob- West Africa. ers, and Sankara's initially warm rela- tain authorization from the government Relations with the nations of West tions with Libya. The government of to issue the standard two-year contracts Africa for the most part are positive. Upper Volta, for its part, fears antigov- for non-lvorian workers in white-collar Ivory Coast plays a leadership role in ernmcnt elements might be allowed to positions. the affairs of the Francophone African infiltrate Upper Volta from Ivory However. Ivorians acknowledge that community, and enjoys excellent rela- Coast, and that the more than one mil- non-lvorian labor, particularly in the tions with Togo. Guinea, Senegal, lion Voltaic citizens working in Ivory areas of construction and agriculture, Cameroon, Chad, Mali, and Niger. Coast could be the victims in the event has helped to make the country what it Relations with the Provisional National of a confrontation. In addition, Upper is today. And President Houphouet- Defense Council government in Volta is linked to the sea primarily by Boigny underscored the feeling in his neighboring Ghana, and with Liberia, Ivory Coast's highly developed infra- national day speech in December by remain cool, but are warming. The structure. Although Ouagadougou's saying Ivory Coast would remain a one-day visit to Yamoussoukro last De- friendly relations with Ghana could "land of welcome" to foreigners. cember by Ghana's head of state. Flight provide alternative outlets, Ghana's Nevertheless, Ivory Coast is going Lieutenant Jerry J. Rawlings, received desperate economic situation renders through its most difficult times since a great deal of attention in the Ivorian it less able to help than Upper Volta's independence, and its economy, ac- media, which sought to underscore the traditional Ivorian partner. cording to experts, has yet to "bottom two nations' similarity of views on ag- Ivory Coast's economic problems out." The Ivorian government appears ricultural pricing policies and economic are causing concern in many West Afri- willing to continue to cooperate with its self-sufficiency, rather than high- can capitals because of the large num- neighbors and seek outside assistance lighting political and ideological differ- ber of foreign workers there. In fact, to address its problems, however. And ences. one out of every four persons living in that attitude, combined with the grow- Relations with Upper Volta, how- Ivory Coast is a foreigner, most of ing technical and managerial expertise ever, remain strained and both whom are West African. Members of of its leadership, should leave it well Houphouet-Boigny and Capt. Thomas these communities have expressed placed to learn from past mistakes and Sankara have publicly snubbed each great fear that as the Ivorian economy recover before most of its neighbors do. other in recent months. Ivorian officials stagnates, the government may begin At that point, it is hoped, the same fear the repercussions of the Voltaic pressuring foreigners to leave in order maturity would assist Ivorian leaders in revolution at home and are apprehen- to provide more jobs for its own citi- their next important task — choosing sive over the close relationship between zens. the individual to carry on the imposing the Voltaic and Ghanaian governments, Indeed, the government has been role of the founding father and lead the whose armed forces conducted joint placing greater emphasis on its nation into its second quarter century. •

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 23 LETTER FROM KAMPALA Uganda's Security Nightmare

BY RICK WELLS

espite the continued international delegation in Paris ... and to discour- homes in I he west of the country as a re- D goodwill President Milton Obote age expatriate experts from coming to sult of harassment by local officials. A enjoys as a result of his efforts to re- Uganda." year earlier, in October 1982, 35,000 build an economy shattered by years of While neither officially confirming people sought refuge in Rwanda and a chaotic and bloody misrule under Idi nor denying the abductions, represen- further 50,000 moved within Uganda Amin, doubts persist in Uganda over tatives of the rebel National Resistance itself. his ability to weather the persistent Army (NRA), which has been fighting But the worst trouble spot to come to challenges and setbacks that threaten to topple the Obote regime from the light during the last year was in the the country's stability and long-term bush for the last three years, denied re- three districts of Luwero, Mpigi, and development, and could undo all prog- sponsibility for the killings and blamed Mubende, in a half circle around Kam- ress made at any time. them on "murderous" soldiers of pala. In the wake of a major army of- Recent events illustrate the point all Obote's army. fensive against antigovernment rebels too well. In the same week that In spite of the donors' vote of confi- launched at the end of last year, more Uganda's aid donors met in Paris dence in Obote, a communique issued than 100,000 people (largely Bagan- (January 26) to approve further loans of by the Consultative Group on Uganda das) who fled their homes were herded $435 million in 1984 and $440 million after the Paris meeting admitted that into makeshift camps. in 1985, four Europeans were murdered "despite improvements in the internal During two separate visits into Luw- by uniformed gunmen just outside security situation since the previous ero district at the end of last year, the Kampala and two aid workers were re- Consultative Group meeting, incidents true extent of the devastation was re- leased following 17 days of captivity in which threaten law and order continue vealed. The occupants of the camps the bush at the hands of antigovernment to occur." were mainly women, children, and old guerrillas. At the time of this writing, the mas- men, mostly in pitiful condition. I was The killing of the three Swiss and one sacre of some 30 villagers, mostly told that, rather than be taken for "ban- Briton along the road from Kampala to women and children, hacked to pieces dits" or rebel sympathizers by the the Masi Sailing Club on the northern with knives and machetes by uniden- army, masses had fled into the bush, shore of Lake Victoria appeared to be tified thugs in uniform, was reported to while others — up to 30,000 according without motive. Although armed rob- have occurred at Muduuma, about 20 beries of Ugandans and expatriates miles southwest of Kampala. Many alike are common, it was the worst in- such incidents go unreported and it is cidence of violence directed against the usually impossible to determine the white community since the days of culprits. UGANDA Amin. The government has managed to The timing of both events, however, greatly improve security in the capital, seemed more than just coincidental. Kampala, over the last year, but taken The government was quick to blame as a whole, the endemic violence of the "dissidents" for both the abductions country's past keeps returning to plague and the killings, saying they were car- the present. At the end of December, a ried out "to embarrass the government Kenyan tribe went on the rampage in the northeast of the country, leaving some 13 dead and 10,000 homeless. A few days previously, Ugandan Karamajong rustled cattle from a large Rick Wells is a British journalist based in Nairobi. He is currently East Africa corre- farm and by the time order was re- spondent for The Economist. stored, 250 government soldiers were dead. In the same month, 6,000 Ugan- dans of Rwandan origin fled from their

24 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 to one aid source — had gone to Kam- national assistance for the displaced Even if people do leave the camps and pala to lie low until it seemed sate to people in September was seen as a return home, they need roofs to shelter return. face-saving exercise. He must have under, tools to clear their land, and food But as the whole region of Luwero, known the bloody consequences of until they can subsist on their own. As a Mpigi. and Mubende voted for the op- sending what is often characterized as result, agencies have strongly opposed position Democratic Party in the De- an ill-disciplined and trigger-happy government attempts to disband camps cember 1980 election and served as the Ugandan army into the area. without warning as a means of solving home base tor the rebels since they In November, the prime minister, the problem. began their operations, it is probable Otema Alimadi, whose office is in A large part of the problem as the that many innocent people who did not charge of the government relief opera- agencies see it lies with the continuing join the rebels would have been re- tions, said on television that some presence of army detachments in the garded as such by the army and dealt 750.000 people had been displaced by camps and at roadblocks. Bored, un- with accordingly. The former defense army-guerrilla clashes. He added that paid, and ill-fed, the soldiers have to minister, Yoweri Museveni, and his nearly 90,000 houses and farms had live off the land just as the local people supporters formed the National Resis- been damaged, destroyed, or looted do. Camp residents complain of fre- tance Army and started a guerrilla war and that the conditions of those who had quent rapings by the soldiers who also against the Uganda People's Congress tied was deplorable. requisition aid supplies when possible. government from the bush, protesting The situation at present remains very The sooner they can be returned to bar- that the elections that brought Obote unclear. Aid workers who have tlooded racks and replaced by ordinary police, back to power were rigged. in since the area was opened up struggle if necessary, the better. Not far from Kampala, traveling against the odds to provide people with It has to be said that many of Presi- north along the Gulu road to the town of basic supplies of daily food and dent Obote's problems are not of his Ouwero, there were signs that people medicine. The government says that the own making. Uganda's economic, po- had begun to return to the area — to re- dissidents have been all but routed and litical, and social order was decimated build their homes and start clearing the that the area is now safe for people to by the dictatorship of Amin, who seized land to plant new crops. The overall return to their homes. But the continued power in 1971 from Obote, Uganda's impression, though, is that the abun- arrival of displaced people at camps and first president after independence from dantly rich and fertile countryside has reports of frequent ambushes along the Britain in 1962. The three interim gov- been thorougly depopulated. What main roads suggest otherwise. ernments that were installed after the were once some of the best coffee Diplomats in Kampala agree that the invasion of Uganda by the Tanzanian plantations in the country have reverted rebels have taken a thorough beating by army to oust Amin singularly failed to to bush; whole villages have been de- the army (with North Korean help) over stop the rot. stroyed and homes looted: and in the the last year, and that a resort to terror On returning to power, therefore, camps themselves, people starve and tactics, such as the murder of the four after the December 1980 elections, children die of commonplace illnesses. Europeans, may be a last desperate ef- Obote faced a daunting task and had It is hard for aid workers to keep fort to destabilize the government. much to prove. His starting point was track of those in the camps — new ones As far as the aid agencies are con- the economy. Six months alter taking spring up overnight as the sphere of cerned, the need for emergency relief office and acting as his own finance military operations shifts — and what will continue for at least six months. minister. Obote introduced a very radi- help can be provided is mostly too little and too late. A headcount of bene- ficiaries done by the Red Cross at the start of January revealed that 77.572 people are receiving assistance in 21 camps. This figure excludes a number of camps that are known to exist but that lie in restricted zones beyond their reach. It was in April last year that the dis- covery of one camp by an aid official provoked an international outcry and embarrassed the government into opening up the area. Even so, it was not until November that the International Red Cross, despite repeated requests, was allowed to return to Uganda (hav- ing been told earlier to leave the coun- try). President Obote (right), Vice-President Muwanga (center), and the late Gen. Ojok President Obote's appeal for inter- at independence celebrations in 1981: Ojok's death was a major blow to Obote

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 25 cal package of monetary and fiscal re- liberation in April 1979, the shilling eral economic activity. The self-im- forms, made all the more remarkable was being traded at 30 to 40 times the posed curlew after nightfall has eased considering his previous socialist official rate. and people stay out at friends' houses or stance on such matters. These included The bulk of the country's scarce downtown bars until the early hours of a massive effective devaluation of the foreign exchange earnings is used for a the morning. shilling (90 percent overnight); large list of essential items (including loan For the majority of Ugandans, life increases in prices paid lo producers of repayment and oil) and is granted from remains a struggle. Salaries have lag- coffee (which accounts for 90 percent Window I at the official rate, deter- ged way behind the rise in living costs, of export earnings), tea, and tobacco; mined each week by the central and with the basic monthly wage providing the dismantling of price controls; and commercial banks. The second source perhaps a week's supply of food for a International Monetary Fund (IMF)- of dollars for those seeking goods and family. All these contradictions that are enforced ceilings on government services not on the list is via Window II Uganda today are reflected in the inter- spending. In the same month, agree- — a weekly auction of $3 million held nal politics of the country which, for the ment was reached with the IMF on a by the central bank — where the price is outsider unused to the air of intrigue 13-month program worth 112.5 million determined by the level of bids made and rumor that exists among Kampala" s in special drawing rights (SDRs). Two over the previous week. close-knit community, are at best con- further standby facilities and the as- While hoping to soak up some of the fusing. sumption of a further $64.6 million in huge surplus of shillings in the country Conspiracy theories abound and 1984 tally with Uganda's reputation as issued under Amin's time, the main aim diplomats in Kampala admit to the the "good child" of the IMF. of Window II (at least in the eyes of the probability of a power struggle going Indeed the World Bank and IMF World Bank and IMF) was to provide on in the higher echelons of the ruling have been well pleased with Obote's dollars for local industry lo set up and UPC party. In this respect, the loss of efforts. Adhering to these tough mea- re-equip with spare parts and so forth. his all-powerful ally at the head of the sures has had positive effects, such as a The system was always meant to be armed forces and the coffee board, substantial reduction in the rate of in- temporary and by now it was hoped the Major General Ojok, in a fatal helicop- flation (now down to around 30 percent two rates would have unified, having ter crash last December, must be seen from over 100 percent three years ago) settled at a reasonable level according as a major blow to the president. and a marked increase in agricultural to market forces. However, it has taken The fact that opposition parties and production. longer than expected for the rates to newspapers highly critical of the UPC The revised recovery program unify (now predicted to happen in July government are allowed to exist at all is (1983-85) for the economy launched by 1984), and lack of control over who a plus point and at least gives a the government in November of last bids for dollars at the weekly auction semblance of democracy. In the last year — with its heavy emphasis on ag- has pushed up the Window II price. week of January, the leader of the op- riculture, curbs on nonessential im- The thirst for dollars in neighboring position Democratic Party said in a ports, and promotion of investment Kenya has produced a sizable cross- public statement that an estimated schemes — was seen as a more realistic border trade in currencies. While 100,000 people have been killed in version of the "emergency" plan Ugandans are happy to exchange Ke- Uganda since the 1980 elections — drawn up in April 1982. Also designed nyan for Ugandan shillings to buy Ke- some by common criminals, some by to convince the country's aid donors nyan goods that are scarce in Uganda, antigovernment guerrillas, and some by that the period of short-term emergency Kenyans are able to procure a local "'our state officers." rehabilitation was over and that the em- agent to bid for precious dollars on their While much of the blame for the op- phasis would now be on longer term behalf with Ugandan shillings. position's lack of popular support can development, it would appear to have Also, without adequate incentives be placed on an absence of sound alter- succeeded. A communique issued by for local industrialists, the dollars have native policies and internal strife, the the Consultative Group on Uganda at largely been spent on a huge array of boycotting of by-elections at the end of the end of the successful Paris meeting nonessential imported luxury goods, last year by the Democratic Party and described the revised recovery program ranging from biscuits and spaghetti to complaints by the tiny Conservative as "a sound document." electrical kitchen gadgets, to supply Party of harassment and electoral mal- There are some hitches, however. among others the growing army of aid practices, suggest a continuing lack of Concern is expressed by officials in workers in Kampala. confidence in the democratic process. Kampala over the continuing viability Strolling around the potholed streets But until the government at least of the two-tier exchange rate system of the capital (a taxi ride is a bone-shat- shows grealer intentions of resolving (known locally as Window I and Win- tering experience), an atmosphere of the security situation outside Kampala dow II) introduced with IMF approval change and bustle has emerged, resi- and of allowing a greater sense of in August 1982. This was the second dents say, over the last year. More cars, democratic freedom to develop, the major attempt, following the initial newly painted shopfronts, and the re- daily tragedy of many Ugandans' lives floating of the shilling, toward bringing turn of some Asians (all of whom were will continue and the patience of an the hugely overvalued currency under expelled under Amin) provide the evi- ever-supportive international commu- control. At the time of the country's dence for this gradual upsurge in gen- nity is in danger of being eroded. •

26 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 cflFRICflN Monitoring economic and political developments around the Continent

(UPDATE March-April 1984 Angola and Mozambique pressed into talks with South Africa Trying to appear more flexible. Neither the ANC nor Swapo, The MNR's guerrilla activities have South Africa is moderating, at least which usually attend SADCC meet- escalated during the recent drought, for the time being, its belligerent ings as observers, was invited to the which is the worst in Mozambique's stance toward Mozambique and last session. history, and the rebel offensive has Angola. American diplomacy has Concessions from Mozambique strained the country's resources reportedly played a role in Preto- South Africa and Mozambique past the breaking point. ria's negotiations with both coun- have been discussing economic South Africa, on the other hand, tries by pressuring the South Afri- links, the Cabora-Bassa hydroelec- is asking Mozambique to halt activi- cans into trying a "disengagement" tric complex, and tourism. The ties by the African National Con- of their troops from Angola and by most important issue, however, is gress. The South Africans maintain persuading Mozambique to negoti- mutual security. South African For- that Maputo is helping ANC guerril- ate security terms with Pretoria. eign Minister Roelof Botha made no las filter across the border, while The South African overtures secret of the fact that the other three Mozambique says it merely pro- have been supported by many coun- issues amount to little more than a vides political and diplomatic sup- tries, including the frontline states. carrot to demonstrate what could be port for the ANC. The Southern African Development gained by Mozambique's accept- Officially. Pretoria denies aiding Coordination Conference (SA- ance of Pretoria's conditions for se- the MNR, but in a tacit acknowl- DCC). which met in early February curity. edgement of its influence, the South in Lusaka, issued a communique Mozambique is pleading with African government helped negoti- which welcomed "signs of a less ag- South Africa to withdraw support ate the release in late January of 12 gressive stance" from Pretoria and from the Mozambique National Re- Soviet mining technicians captured called for "continued international sistance (MNR). a group of rebels and held by the MNR. pressure" on South Africa to effect seeking to overthrow the govern- In an apparent capitulation to peaceful change in the region. ment of President Samoru Machel. South Africa's terms, Mozambique in early February expelled Joe Slovo, the white South African who U.S. seeks emergency food aid to Africa is second-in-command of the The Reagan administration has future contingencies and that it is ANC's military wing. requested an additional $90 million not enough to allow the U.S. to play Some Maputo officials reportedly appropriation from Congress for its "traditional leadership role" in said that the Reagan administra- famine relief in Africa. Some legis- assistance to the Third World. tion's "constructive engagement" lators, however, feel that the re- The $90 million would cover a policy was a factor in persuading quest is inadequate, and they have portion of the 3.3 million metric Pretoria to re-examine its attitude sponsored bills asking for increases tons of food aid that, according to toward Mozambique. up to $300 million. the FAO, is needed by 24 African Pretoria's ability and willingness In the Senate. Rudy Boschwitz countries this year. Of that amount, to control the MNR must be ques- (R-Minn.) is sponsoring a similar 1.7 million tons have already been tioned, however. In late January, bill which asks for $150 million. pledged. just a week after the negotiations Rep. Ted Weiss (D-N.Y.) has intro- began, the MNR ambushed a civil- duced a bill in the House asking for The U.S. Agency for Interna- ian bus and killed at least 27 people. a total of $300 million in food aid and tional Development (USAID) op- And in early February, the rebels $50 million in non-food assistance poses the higher figures, claiming claimed to have destroyed military for Africa. that it would be difficult to effi- bases near the capital and to have The Reagan administration's re- ciently distribute so much aid. killed more than 150 government quest for $90 million is thought to be To avert widespread famine, 75 troops in five provinces. the absolute minimum that the U.S. percent of the food deficit must be Withdrawal from Angola should supply based on UN Food delivered to Africa by June. There- In mid-January, South Africa be- and Agricultural Organization fore, although the bills have wide gan withdrawing its forces from An- (FAO) requests. Legislative aides support, a compromise bill must gola. The withdrawal was to be car- have commented that the $90 mil- pass through Congress and be ried out in two stages. The troops lion does not take into account any signed by the President by April. • Continued on next page

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 27 Western diplomats were quietly op- Chester Crocker, the assistant sec- Talks continued timistic about the chances of retary of state for African affairs, which had participated in "Opera- achieving a true ceasefire. Angolan met in mid-January with Angolan tion Askari," the six-week incur- President Jose Eduardo dos Santos officials in Cape Verde to persuade sion that brought South African said that he welcomed the move, so them to accept South Africa's offer troops over 150 miles into Angolan long as South Africa was prepared of a ceasefire. In his announcement territory, were the first to be pulled to implement the U N plan for Nami- of the disengagement on January back. The South African govern- bian independence. Swapo's presi- 31, Botha said he had received un- ment then announced that it was be- dent, Sam Nujoma, after calling the specified "assurances" from the ginning to withdraw the forces move "a piece of political non- U.S. which had been occupying southern sense," later said he was willing to The stumbling block in the Nami- Angola since 1981. There was no in- discuss a ceasefire. bia negotiations continues to be dependent confirmation of that American diplomats hope that South Africa's insistence, sup- move. the disengagement, which amounts ported by the U.S., that Angola South African Prime Minister to a de facto ceasefire, will lead to a send home an estimated 25,000 Cu- Pieter Botha said the military with- resumption of the negotiations on ban troops—an issue that is not part drawal was "a preparatory step to Namibia's independence. of the UN plan already approved by having a ceasefire" in Namibia. Frank Wisner, a senior aide to all sides. D WESTERN AFRICA Secessionist agitation grows in Casamance region of Senegal In late 1983, more than forty lead- tremely fertile and grows a dispro- traced back to 1943, when AMin Si- ers of the Movement of the Demo- portionate share of Senegal's food, towe Diatta, a Casamancian woman cratic Forces of Casamance but many Casamancians claim that working as a housekeeper in Dakar, (MFDC) were tried on charges that most government funds for devel- "heard voices" calling upon her to they had organized massive demon- opment have been distributed else- return home. She went back to Ca- strations in 1982 calling for the inde- where. Unlike the rest of Senegal, samance and preached in the vil- pendence of the Casamance region, in which Islam is the predominant lages, exhorting the people to refuse which is pinched between the Gam- religion, much of Casamance still to pay taxes to the French, or to bia river and the Guinea-Bissau bor- follows traditional African faiths. grow groundnuts for them, or to der. The leader of the secessionists, Furthermore, most Casamancians serve the French army in foreign a Catholic priest. Abbe Augustin have a closer ethnic and linguistic wars. The colonial administration Diamacoune Senghor. was sen- affinity to the peoples of neighbor- seized her and deported her to Mali. tenced to five years in prison "for ing Guinea-Bissau than to the Wolof She was only 23 at the time, but her offenses against territorial integ- ethnic group which is predominant fate remains a mystery, and she has rity." Shortly thereafter, three po- elsewhere in Senegal. become a symbol of the Casaman- licemen were killed near Ziguin- Casamancian separatism can be Continued on next page chor, the capital of the Casamance region, when they tried to disperse protests against the trial of the Continuing drought in Mauritania raises MFDC leaders. Ten days later, MFDC militants armed with ma- hopes that slavery will be abolished chetes and firearms ambushed gov- For Mauritania, 1983 was a year mads, but most of the herders have ernment security forces in Ziguin- of devastating drought coming on now moved to Nouakchott or other chor. In two hours of fighting, 24 the heels of 12 years of sustained towns in the southeast where, un- people were killed—including at severe drought. The country re- able to findemployment , they await least four policemen—and more ceived an average total of 50mm of handouts of relief food. than 80 injured, according to a gov- rain, half the usual marginal rainfall. Despite its disastrous conse- ernment statement; but civilian Ninety percent of its food must now quences, the drought may now suc- deaths may have been considerably be imported, and 70 percent of ceed in doing what eighty years of higher than the official figure. those imports come in the form of pleas and legislation have failed to gifts. The price of livestock, the ba- Voices of separatism accomplish: By destroying the tra- sis of the nomadic economy, fell 80 ditional economy, it may have fi- The MFDC is a new organization, percent between October and De- nally forced the eradication of slav- but Casamance has long insisted on cember last year as herders sought ery. The slave owners can no longer its own regional identity. Casam- to get rid of their cattle before the meet their own needs, let alone ance is cut off from the rest of Sene- last of the pasture land vanished and those of their slaves. As the nomads gal by the Gambia river, which has the waterholes dried up. find refuge in the towns, they are only a single ferry crossing. Colo- The result has been a rapid ero- releasing their slaves to fend for nized originally by the Portuguese, sion of traditional nomadic life. themselves. it became part of French Senegal Thirty years ago, 80 percent of the This is the view of Peter Davies of only in 1866. The region is ex- population of Mauritania were no- England's Anti-Slavery Society,

28 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 who recently returned from a UN- done only \n & jihad or ho\y war. It is released to the working group on sponsored trip to Mauritania. then a Muslim's duty to convert that slavery in Geneva next August. 'Though I wouldn't wish this slave to Islam. When a slave ac- Davies, whose Anti-Slavery So- drought on anybody," Davies com- cepts Islam he must be released, ciety has been promoting the aboli- mented, "it really does give them compensated with food and clothes, tionist cause since 1830, is optimis- the chance to restructure their soci- and be treated as a brother. Since no tic despite the remaining obstacles ety from the bottom upwards." Mauritanian can claim to have to total abolition. "There is still go- Slavery has been officially taken his slaves in •a.jihad* and since ing to be a problem since the slave banned three times in Mauritania. all of the slaves in Mauritania are masters are not used to doing man- The French made what has been de- Muslims, the uletna ruled that ual work, and slaves are not used to scribed as "'a half-hearted attempt" Mauritania has been violating the coping on their own .... But this to do it in 1947. It was "abolished" laws of Islam for centuries. revolution forced upon them by ex- again in 1960by newly-independent The clarification of the compen- ternal circumstances gives them a Mauritania's constitution which sation issue has helped speed the very good opportunity to eliminate proclaimed the rights of all citizens. abolitionist cause, and it is now ex- slavery once and for all, and to unify In 1980, the government of Presi- pected that the UN mission which the different castes, classes, and dent Mohamed Khouna Ould visited Mauritania in January will races. They're really all now on a Haidalla announced the abolition of announce that slavery is being elim- sinking ship. They've got to get to- slavery and, according to most re- inated. The mission's report will be gether in order to survive." • ports, has been reasonably vigilant in its efforts to stamp out the prac- tice. But as Haidalla observed at the Senegal continued Besides language and cultural dif- time of the most recent banning, cian separatist movement. ferences between the anglophone "We are aware that a thousand- In 1958, Casamance resisted Sen- Gambia and French-speaking Sene- year-old social practice cannot be egal's proposed inclusion in the gal, the main obstacle to the federa- removed at the stroke of a pen." French Community. Senegal's first tion is economic. The Gambia has "What we truly need is a social rev- opposition party drew most of its very low import duties, and huge olution." popular support from Casamance. quantities of goods are imported, Senegambian Confederation with the excess being smuggled Slavery has long been part of The attempted coup in 1981 across the borders into Senegal. (A Mauritania's complicated caste sys- against Gambian President Dawda statistician estimated that in one tem. The dominant elite in Maurita- K. Jawara found considerable sym- year alone, the number of radios im- nian society are the slave-owning pathy in Casamance, for the coup ported into the Gambia was seven White Moors of nomadic origin. Be- leaders would have sought to inte- times greater than the population.) low them are a series of castes com- grate Casamance into the Gambia, A federation between the two coun- prised of other nomadic groups ending the region's geographical tries would establish a unified cus- which have been defeated by the isolation. The Senegalese armed toms rate, and merchants in both Moors. They are followed by castes forces swept into the Gambia and countries are adamantly opposed to of artisans, musicians, and hunters. crushed the coup, partially out of the union, which would raise prices Thirty percent of the population are concern that the Gambian rebels by eliminating contraband trade. former slaves, also known as Hara- would attempt to annex Casam- The unrest in Casamance has also tines or Black Moors. Many of ance. In exchange for their salva- been heightened by the drought in these people find themselves dis- tion of Jawara's government, the northern Senegal, which has driven criminated against, unable to find Senegalese extracted from him a herdsmen southward in search of work, and often dependent on their commitment to the formation of the grazing land for their livestock. former masters for favors and hand- Senegambian Confederation, a un- Tension has developed between the outs. At the bottom of the caste sys- ion of the two countries which had migrant northerners and the Casa- tem is the slave community, esti- long been discussed. mancian herdsmen, and the situa- mated in 1980 to number around Many Casamancians are in favor tion may have been aggravated by 100,000 or 10 percent of the popula- members of the Manodje ethnic tion. of the federation, which would elim- inate the awkward borders that iso- group in Casamance, who have Attempts to implement the final late Casamance. The federation is been accused of stealing livestock abolition have been hindered over being implemented very slowly, and smuggling them into Guinea- the issue of compensation to former however, and the delays have re- Bissau. masters. A government decision to vived the secessionist movement in The drought and the secessionist buy the slaves from the masters was Casamance with new force. violence come at a time when Sene- vigorously protested by a Haratine Although Senegalese President gal's economic difficulties are deep- group known as El Hor (free man), Abdou Diouf has increased the ening. In late 1983, Diouf reduced and compensation was recently number of Casamancians in his cab- subsidies on staple foods and cut ruled out of the question by the inet and other government posts, back public-sector employment, idema, a group of Muslim jurists the secessionist movement is likely which consumes more than half of who interpret Koranic law. Accord- to grow stronger and more violent the national budget. The "Paris ing to the Koran, only infidels may unless the Senegambian Confedera- Club" recently rescheduled pay- be taken as slaves,and that may be tion can be realized. ments on debts coming due in 1984,

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 after having agreed to a similar re- nance and economic planning, said • Over the past several months, scheduling of debts which came due that in order to avoid an impending Rawlings has sought to bolster rela- in 1982-83. Further repayments on a food crisis, "supplementary assist- tions with neighboring states, some $90 million debt have been spread ance from the international commu- of which were initially hostile to the over the next seven years. nity will be required." Ghana is one Ghanaian revolution, by visiting The drought and the ailing econ- of six African nations that will bene- Mali, Upper Volta, Benin, Guinea, omy make Casamance more impor- fit from the U.S. Agency for Inter- and Ivory Coast. Rawlings' meeting tant than ever. While agricultural national Development's January with lvorian President Felix production elsewhere in Senegal approval of $32.7 million in food aid Houphouet-Boigny in December has been withered by drought, Ca- to combat malnutrition and starva- was an effort to ease regional ten- samance remains fertile. The gov- tion resulting from the drought, yet sions, and it is hoped that Ghana's ernment in Dakar is worried that the further assistance is required to borders with Ivory Coast will soon Casamance violence may grow avert what may be a 450,000 metric be reopened. Ghana closed its bor- worse, and rallies have been held in ton deficit in cereals alone. ders with its neighbors—Ivory support of national unity. Assanc Coast, Upper Volta, and Togo—in Seek, vice president of the National Ghana's industrial production 1982 to combat cocoa smuggling. Assembly, a close ally of Diouf, and has also been severely affected by Only Upper Volta has thus far re- the most prominent Casamancian in the drought. Low rainfall, causing sponded to the Ghanaian govern- the national government, has urged an estimated 66 percent drop in the ment's request that borders be reo- water level of the Volta Lake which pened. the people of his home region to re- feeds the Akosambo dam, has ject the MFDC. Western observers, caused hydroelectricity shortages, An improvement in Ghana's rela- however, are concerned that the necessitating power cuts. The Gha- tions with Ivory Coast and Togo has heavy civilian casualties in Decem- naian government introduced a been complicated by the presence ber may have permanently esca- mandatory electricity rationing in the two countries of Ghanaian ex- lated the tensions in Casamance. • scheme last December, providing iles who are believed to be engaged power on a rotational basis—21 in subversion. According to the hours off and 27 hours on. PNDC secretary for foreign affairs, GHANA: Obed Asamoah, Ivory Coast has as- Drought threatens recovery The harsh effects of the drought sured Ghana that dissidents will not • Despite the substantial Western appear to preclude any major recov- be allowed to use lvorian territory financial backing won by the Gha- ery in the Ghanaian economy in to launch attacks against the Ghana- naian government for its economic 1984. However, the government's ian government. This pledge has recovery program late last year, the three-year economic program, helped to ease the strain in relations coming months hold little hope for a which enabled it to secure pledges between the two nations. rapid improvement in the state of of $ 150 million from Western aid do- Relations with Togo, however, the Ghanaian economy, primarily nors and a $337 million IMF credit remain cool. Although Ghana has because of continuing unfavorable late last year; its 90 percent devalu- reopened four of its border posts climatic conditions which have hurt ation of the cedi; and plans to along the common frontier, the To- agricultural production and affected promulgate an investment code golese government had not recipro- industrial output. have won it the confidence of previ- cated as of late February. The valid- On the second anniversary of ously hostile Western govern- ity of Ghanaian claims that Togo is Ghana's December 31st revolution, ments. According to Botchwey, harboring Ghanaian dissidents was Flt.-Lt. Jerry Rawlings, chairman "Given the right macro-economic supported when Radio Nigeria re- of the Provisional National Defense incentives, better rains and with the ported in early January that a ship Council (PNDC), warned in a necessary assistance of the donor carrying arms and ammunition to broadcast to the nation that "the community, both East and West, the exiles based in Lome was inter- first eight months of 1984 ... are we can in the medium-term, im- cepted and turned away by Togo- going to be difficult for us ... the prove the situation." lese authorities. result of the poor harvests of 1983 Western diplomatic sources in While the Lome government re- which have left us without stocks Accra recently praised the PNDC's portedly has threatened to arrest sufficient to carry us over the lean "courageous" efforts to redress the any group of Ghanaian exiles hold- season." years of economic decline, its disci- ing meetings on Togolese territory The drought which is afflicting 36 pline in adhering to the conditions but has also stated that it cannot African countries has severely af- laid out by the IMF and World refuse political asylum to exiles, re- fected Ghana's 1983 harvests, as Bank, and the expedience with ports from the border areas indi- have bushfires which ravaged the which economic reforms have been cated that ordinary Ghanaian citi- northern part of the country. Food carried out. Western governments zens who were arriving in Lome for shortages are likely in 1984, despite have also been pleased by what they commercial pursuits were being a PNDC campaign to encourage ag- perceive as the PNDC's toning harassed and forced to return to ricultural production which re- down of its earlier revolutionary Ghana. Citing the fact that last sulted in a 13 percent increase in and anti-imperialist rhetoric, and its June's coup attempt against the acreage under cultivation in 1983. emphasis on the need for increased Rawlings government was launched In January, Dr. Kwesi Bot- productivity and economic self-reli- from Togo. Asamoah said. "It is chwey, the PNDC secretary for fi- ance. very difficult to escape from the

X AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 conclusion that if they are not aid- ing, then at least they are overlook- ing what these people are doing." Press notes • After Nigeria's New Year's coup, editorials in the Western press IVORY COAST: unanimously lamented "the death of democracy. "The New York Times The fading miracle commented: "Africa's biggest democracy became Africa's biggest dic- tatorship last weekend." The Financial Times said that Nigeria had • Although Ivory Coast is often re- "represented the most important and vigorous example of a multi-party ferred to as "Africa's economic system on the continent," and the Christian Science Monitor said: "Of miracle," il is becoming increas- all black African nations, Nigeria seemed the most likely to grow into the ingly evident that Ivory Coast's de- first successful democracy." velopment has been achieved by In the following weeks, however, the new regime began to document mortgaging the national economy the massive corruption which had thrived under the civilian govern- and accumulating public debt at a ment. The first press reports of the coup had been written from London phenomenal pace. and Abidjan, but as Western reporters were allowed to file from Lagos, During the "cocoa boom," which they enthusiastically catalogued examples of corruption and the joyful collapsed in 1982. President Felix public reaction to the coup. Houphouet-Boigny's government In late January, the London Times noted that "a cultural gap has borrowed from foreign sources on a become apparent in the reactions to the military coup in Nigeria, in the massive scale. Ivorian debt doubled West and in Nigeria itself." The moral indignation expressed by the between 1980 and 1983, and one- Western press was based on the presumption that they knew what was third of all World Bank loans to best for Nigeria. They discovered in the weeks following the coup that West Africa in 1981-1982 were dis- they may have been wrong. bursed to Ivory Coast. By 1981, ac- cording to the World Bank, debt • An article in the February 13 issue of The New Republic by James service was already consuming 11 North (a pseudonym) accuses the South African government of commit- percent of the gross national prod- ting atrocities in Namibia. "The South African Army may have aban- uct, the highest ratio in Africa. Pub- doned the hope of ever crushing SWAPO on the battlefield. It may have lic external debt is now believed to decided instead to deliberately kill or drive away masses of black civil- exceed $7 billion, or 90 percent of ians who provide SWAPO with its base of support.'1 North cites the the GNP and approximately $800 South African Army's own statistics on the number of people killed and per capita. (The per capita GNP is the curious lack of prisoners from Namibia as "prima facie evidence that $1200.) it has committed crimes of war." At the end of 1983. Ivory Coast began discussions with the "Lon- Unlike many other African coun- don Club" of commercial banks and cope with billions of dollars of debt. Nigeria's oil production is limited tries, the government of Nigeria did the "Paris Club" of creditor nations not overborrow from foreign on rescheduling $1.25 billion of by OPEC quotas to 1.3 million bar- rels per day. a million barrels under sources in recent years. But the fall debt. The rescheduling was the first in oil revenue has led to a shortage ever sought by Ivory Coast. For its full production capacity. The glut of oil on the world market has of foreign exchange and caused a several years, Houphoue't refused trade debt crisis. The Nigerian na- to reschedule the country's debt, caused Nigeria's oil revenues to fall drastically from their peak of more tional and state governments, as fearing that the move would harm well as parastatals and private busi- Ivory Coast's reputation for pros- than $20 billion in 1980. Meanwhile, Nigeria's domestic oil consumption nesses, have been unable to pay perity and stability. But almost 20 their overseas suppliers. Nigerian percent of the debt was scheduled is increasing by approximately 10 percent annually, further reducing governments and businesses pay to fall due in 1984, leaving Ivory their bills into the Central Bank in Coast faced with what the Financial the country's foreign exchange earnings. naira. but there is insufficient for- Times called "a dramatic bunching eign exchange to remit the pay- of loan maturities." Houphouct The government of Gen. Mu- hammed Buhari has asked OPEC to ments abroad. The backlog in pay- therefore had little choice but to re- ments on foreign contracts has bur- schedule. He did, however, impose increase Nigeria's production quota to approximately two million bar- geoned in the last two years, a blackout on domestic reporting of reaching an estimated $5-7 billion. the debt negotiations, and the re- rels per day, a move which would scheduling took on the nature of a substantially increase Nigeria's in- The civilian Nigerian government state secret. come. The increase in Nigeria's was able to obtain two refinancing quota, if approved by OPEC, will agreements, one last July and one in compel other members of the cartel September, to cover approximately NIGERIA: Over a barrel to cut back their production by an $2 billion of the total. In January, • Although their drive against cor- equivalent amount. During a mid- Buhari's military government be- ruption has gotten the most public- February visit to Nigeria, Sheikh gan new negotiations on refinancing ity, Nigeria's new military rulers Ahmed Zaki Yamani supported the $3 billion of the remaining trade ar- are struggling with even larger eco- request, saying that Nigeria should rears. The debt talks dragged on for nomic issues: how to maximize Ni- be given "preferential treatment by several weeks, but by early Febru- geria's oil revenues, and how to OPEC. ' ary it appeared that an agreement

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 31 would be reached. Nigeria was he might step down, but in a maga- ments were brought to trial. The tri- likely to agree to pay an interest rate zine interview last December als were held in public and were one percent above the London In- Stevens declared that he would re- broadcast over the radio in all major terbank Offered Rate (Libor). main in office until the "the econ- Voltaic languages. The agreement on trade debt was omy is out of the woods . . . and Gen. Lamizana, who had been a prelude to talks, scheduled to be- conditions in the country are satis- under house arrest for more than gin in Washington in mid-February, factory." The Congress subse- three years, was acquitted in a in which Nigeria will seek to obtain quently appointed Stevens Presi- three-day trial of charges that he a $3 billion loan from the IMF. The dent for Life. had bilked the treasury of more than devaluation of the naira, a precondi- A part of the students' statement $1 million. tion likely to be set by the IMF, was read: "We now hear disturbing ru- The acquittal of Lamizana, one of expected to be the main issue at the mors that the purpose of this con- the most notable figures ever talks in Washington. vention is to 'elect' a life leader for brought to trial in Upper Volta, dis- Sierra Leone. To call a convention pelled fears that the new tribunals SIERRA LEONE: for such a reason, under our present constituted a "kangaroo court" Varsity demonstrations economic hardship, would be re- which would violate the civil rights • A demonstration by students garded by the students' union as an of the accused. from Fourah Bay College turned insult to the people of Sierra Leone. Although defendants appear be- into riots, looting, and burning in We demand a retirement. There are fore the TPR without right of coun- Freetown in mid-January. Three more pressing issues than the life sel, they may produce evidence and deaths and 60 injuries were reported leadership of individuals." call witnesses to testify on their be- as the protest, which began on the half, and the TPR sits without an campus, swept down into the city. UPPER VOLTA: official prosecutor or permanent The students issued a series of de- A new kind of trial staff. The TPRs are not empowered mands as a gathering of the All Peo- • In January, the "revolutionary to impose sentences of forced labor ple's Congress, the country's only popular tribunals" (TPRs), which or the death penalty; banishment is political party, began. were established in October, began considered the most severe sen- Among the students' demands hearing cases in Ouagadougou and tence. The TPRs cannot entertain was that President Siaka Stevens Bobo-Dioulasso. More than 100 appeals, but petitions for reprieve retire. For the past three or four former officials of the Saye Zerbo may be submitted directly to Presi- years Stevens has been hinting that and Sangoule Lamizana govern- dent Thomas Sankara. EASTERN AFRICA Renewed relations create prospects and problems in E. Africa As a preliminary step in reviving ists may now cross the borders ages of some products in Tanzania. parts of the defunct East African freely, but they will be required to Lured by Kenyan shillings, Tanza- Community (EAC), the three cash foreign exchange as no agree- nian traders have sent soap, cook- former members, Uganda, Kenya, ment has been reached on the con- ing oil, toothpaste, food, cattle, and and Tanzania, must clear up about vertibility of the East African cur- medicine across the border. Tanza- $180 million of the EAC's debts. rencies. This move is expected to nian officials have said that the il- The Community's major creditors increase revenues for both coun- licit trade has also forced the price are Britain, the U.S., and the World tries. of meat up by 30 to 100 percent in Bank. The opening of the border to Ken- some areas. Since most of the EAC's assets yans and Tanzanians has led to • Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda were appropriated by Kenya and other problems, however. Before have also agreed not to harbor dissi- Tanzania, those countries have the breakup of the Community, the dents who wish to carry out subver- agreed to divide the responsibility three countries shared a common sive activities across their borders. for the debts. The details are being currency, but since 1977, the Ken- This has created some sticky prob- arranged with the assistance of Vic- yan shilling has become substan- lems for all three countries, which tor Umbricht, the World Bank-ap- tially more valuable than the other regularly granted refugee status to pointed mediator who has been two currencies. Though the Kenyan each other's dissidents. working patiently to untangle the shilling currently trades at 13.7 to Kenya's Weekly Review reported Community's confusing financial the dollar, and the official rate for that agents of the Ugandan govern- affairs since 1977. the Tanzanian shilling is 12.6 to the ment have been forcibly repatriat- The first benefits to accrue from dollar, one Kenyan shilling can ing Ugandans who have been living the new detente came from the bring ten Tanzanian shillings in as refugees in Kenya. The refugees opening of the Kenya-Tanzania open trading. say that they suspect that the Ken- border. The two countries have The closed border never stopped yan government may have turned a reached a series of agreements on smuggling from taking place, but blind eye to the abductions or may the promotion of tourism and con- the opening of the border has led to even be cooperating with the Ugan- servation of wildlife. Foreign tour- increased flows of goods, and short- dan agents.

32 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 One exile reported that he and for 20 percent of its export earnings. smaller Eritrean Liberation Front- three other refugees were stopped Ylang-ylang is an aromatic oil used Popular Liberation Front (ELF- on a Nairobi street by men identify- to make perfume; it comes from the PLF). ing themselves as Kenyan special drooping flowers of the cananga branch police. The "police" tree, which is found in the Comoros • Ethiopian and Cuban sources claimed that they wanted to ques- as well as in the Philippines and have denied that the departure of tion the men in connection with a Java. Cuban troops from Ethiopia signals bank robbery, but the exile reported But French demand for ylang- a rift between the two countries, as that he recognized one of the men as ylang has declined steadily for a some press reports had speculated. a member of the Ugandan secret po- decade, while the population of the The reasons are more basic: Most of lice. The exile was then able to es- Comoros has increased rapidly. the Cubans were stationed in the cape, and he claims that he has not Drought, cyclones, volcanic erup- Ogaden to guard against an invasion heard from his friends since. tions, and the expulsion of Com- from Somalia, an eventuality which now appears to be unlikely. In addi- The Weekly Review editorialized: orans from the nearby French is- land "territory" of Mayotte, have tion, Ethiopia paid for the Cuban "A distinction must, however, be presence with foreign exchange, a made between political dissidents strained the limited land area to the maximum. Food production has luxury that Ethiopia can ill afford to and bona fide refugees ... It is ob- prolong. vious that someone in Kenya is en- never recovered from the damage gaged in the business of abducting caused by former President Ali Cuban troop strength, which had Ugandans and ferrying them across Soilth's radical collectivization in been 11,500, is expected to be re- the border, and it is a practice that 1977. Along with tourism, agricul- duced to 3000 by June. The remain- the Kenyan authorities should put ture is the main priority of the new ing troops will be instructors, engi- an end to immediately." five-year plan. neers, and probably an elite guard In January, Abdallah announced to protect Chairman Mengistu Haile • Kenya is expected to ignore are- a technical reshuffle of his cabinet. Mariam's regime against a possible quest by the UN High Commission The ministerial changes came only coup attempt. for Refugees (UNHCR) and begin nine months after the last reshuffle, procedures against Hezekiah • Both Ethiopia and the U.S. have which in turn came just over a year remained quiet about the expulsion Ochuka and Pancras Okumu, two after an earlier cabinet change. As enlisted men who fled to Tanzania of four American diplomats from usual, every member of the govern- Addis Ababa and the subsequent in a hijacked plane after the 1982 ment was retained, but all the minis- failed coup attempt. The men were expulsion of two Ethiopians from ters were appointed to different Washington in early February. Nei- handed back to Kenya by Tanza- posts. nian authorities in an exchange of ther side gave specific reasons for political refugees after the two coun- Observers note that the reshuffle the actions, but speculation has tries normalized relations late last can have little effect on Comoran centered around an event a few year. UNHCR called the exchange politics, since Abdallah is believed days earlier in which 18 Ethiopians a "flagrant violation of interna- to be dominated even still by the were arrested in Addis Ababa for tional obligations." Kenya and French mercenaries, led by Bob distributing leaflets. Observers feel Tanzania are signatories to UN and Denard, who installed him in 1978. that the two countries will play OAU conventions which prohibit down the incident in order not to Ihe repatriation of political refu- upset U.S.-Ethiopian relations, gees. ETHIOPIA: EPLF advances which have been improving lately. Both governments claim that the • In mid-January, Eritrean rebels KENYA: exchange was carried out without mounted a renewed offensive, cap- high-level approval, and they have turing the town of Tesseni on the The harder they fall promised that it won't happen border with Sudan. The gains by • A prominently displayed article again. • forces of the Eritrean People's Lib- in Kenya's Sunday Nation contains eration Front (EPLF) are the first the familiar face of the former min- COMOROS: Under the advances by either side after two ister for constitutional affairs. The years of stalemate since the govern- headline, white letters accentuated ylang-ylang tree ment launched its unsuccessful Op- within a strip of black, reads, "The • An international donors1 confer- eration Red Star in 1982. ego of Mr. Charles Njonjo." Super- ence, to be held in the Comoran In the last two years, the EPLF imposed over the photograph is a capital of Moroni this March, is ex- has emerged as the dominant Eri- magnifying glass which is focused pected to outline terms of foreign trean liberation group. The Eritrean on one of Njonjo's famous pinstripe aid for the Comoros' 1983-86 devel- Liberation Front (ELF), which bat- suits. The lens reveals that what ap- opment plan. President Ahmed Ab- tled the EPLF as well as the Ethio- pear from a distance to be stripes dallah is seeking to obtain substan- pian government, seems to have are actually small letters, C's and tial economic assistance for the first vanished, and there are reports that N's. "What could the significance time in the history of the archipel- some former ELF units are fighting of that be?" the caption taunts. ago. alongside the EPLF. The recent "Civilization's Nomad perhaps? Or The Comoran economy is depen- move by the EPLF follows unity Chief Negotiator? No, you've got dent upon a single esoteric product talks which were held with the it—Charles Njonjo."

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 33 Njonjo was also prominent in the charged with entering South Africa replied that he was aware of what newspapers a few years ago. Then, through Malawi in 1980. was happening and that he didn't he was shown opening roads or ded- The inquiry has also "revealed" want to discuss it. icating schools. His every utterance that Njonjo travelled to London on became a headline, and for a while it an average of four times per year. SOMALIA: Air attacks seemed that his face was on page 1 He allegedly carried as many as 12 every morning. pieces of luggage and never paid ex- • Somali sources reported in late Njonjo's plunge from deification cess baggage charges. According to January that six Ethiopian MiGs at- to humiliation was fast and hard. witnesses, Njonjo would be driven tacked in the northwest, killing 40 Last May, President Daniel arap directly onto the runway without people and injuring some 80 others. Moi suddenly announced that there passing through customs or buying The radio report said that many of was a "traitor" in the government. a ticket. He always flew first class. the victims were schoolchildren in There was no doubt in anyone's Thus far the inquiry has been a the town of Borama, 80 miles from mind that he was referring to the public declaration of what people the regional capital of Hargeisa. overly ambitious Njonjo. Njonjo re- have been saying privately about These reports were later confirmed signed, and in January an inquiry Njonjo for many years. Whether it by U.S. diplomatic sources. was convened to investigate will produce hard evidence of trea- The air raid may have been in re- charges that he had conspired with son remains to be seen. taliation against attacks on the Ethi- "foreign powers"—Britain and Is- Not far from everyone's thoughts opia-Djibouti railway for which the rael are usually mentioned—to is the 1981 trial of Alfred Somali-backed Western Somalia overthrow the government of Muthemba. Muthemba, a relative Liberation Front has claimed re- Kenya. But after a month, the tribu- of Njonjo, was charged with treason sponsibility. Those attacks report- nal has turned up little that is related for attempting to buy weapons from edly killed 29 people, including to treason and much that simply re- the Kenya army. It was implied, but Ethiopian soldiers. inforces the public's view of Njonjo never openly stated, that Ethiopian-backed rebels of the as an elitist who preferred the com- Muthemba was buying the weapons Somali National Movement who pany of his wealthy foreign friends for a force of Njonjo loyalists who are trying to topple the regime of to Kenyans, and who took full, but planned to overthrow the govern- President Siad Barre in Somalia not by Kenyan standards unusual, ment. A witness testified that have claimed that over 1500 Somali advantage of his privileged posi- Muthemba had at one point de- government soldiers staged a mass tion. clared, "The big man (President defection in late January. The rebel radio broadcast said that the sol- Witnesses in the inquiry have al- Daniel arap Moi) must go ... Njonjo is the man." Muthemba was diers complained of food shortages, leged that Njonjo intervened on be- poor conditions, and low morale. half of some of his friends to allow acquitted on the grounds of insuffi- cient evidence after he claimed that There was no independent confir- them to illegally import small arms mation of this report. and ammunition. Among those his attempt to buy arms was actu- friends is Saudi Arabian billionaire ally a private investigation into Adnan Khashoggi, who is noted for arms smuggling which he planned to TANZANIA: Zanzibar unrest getting involved in shady business report to authorities as soon as he • The President of Zanzibar, deals. Khashoggi, who was also had concrete proof. When the ques- Aboud Jumbe, resigned in late Jan- friendly with the late Jomo Ke- tion was raised as to why a success- uary amid rising secessionist senti- nyatta, owns a 100,000-acre ranch ful businessman would use his own ment on the island. Jumbe, a close and private game park in Kenya money to conduct an investigation friend of Tanzanian President Ju- which he regularly visits by landing on behalf of the state, the court was lius Nyerere, was seen by Zanziba- his 727 on his private airstrip. told that Muthemba was mentally ill ris as an agent of the central govern- Njonjo is on the ranch's board of and suffered from "obsessions." ment, which is trying to usurp Zan- directors. At the close of the 1981 trial the zibar's limited autonomy. By The Khashoggi connection is be- judge said: "There is not a shred of resigning, Jumbe has also forfeited ing used link Njonjo to the abortive acceptable evidence in this whole the posts of vice president of Tanza- Seychelles coup attempt of Novem- case adverse to the well-deserved nia and vice chairman of the ruling ber 1981. Khashoggi is a close reputation of Mr. Njonjo." But party. friend of former Seychelles Presi- things are different in 1984, and Following his resignation, there dent James Mancham, and all his Njonjo's "well-deserved reputa- were reports of a series of arrests on holdings on the islands were nation- tion" promises to be his undoing. Zanzibar. Among those detained alized by the socialist regime of Al- • A former Kenyan Air Force ma- was Wolfango Dourado, a lawyer bert Rene, who overthrew Man- jor-general, Peter Kariuki, has been who has been active in the Zanzibar cham in 1977. A witness to the in- sentenced to four years in prison in independence movement. Last De- vestigation into the abortive coup connection with the 1982 abortive cember, Dourado was quoted as testified that Khashoggi had pro- coup for "failing to suppress a mu- saying, "We will not make a unilat- cured some of the arms which were tiny." An air force lieutenant testi- eral declaration of independence. used. Attempts to implicate Njonjo fied that, on the night before the at- But we will refuse to cooperate with in the Seychelles coup are based on tempted coup, he tried to inform Tanganyika, and the whole country a secret trip he made to Malawi at Kariuki that the action was about to will be in chaos." that time. Njonjo has also been take place. Kariuki is said to have Though Zanzibar, the island of

34 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 Pemba, and Tanzania have been of- agreement reached between Tanza- fore being freed. ficially federated since 1964, the nia and the IMF for a $180 million Informed sources indicated that, central government in Dar es Sa- loan in 1980 collapsed when Tanza- since "the government has very lit- laam has been attempting to further nia failed to institute the austerity tle or no control over its armed consolidate the union by entrench- measures called for by the Fund. In forces," negotiators from the relief ing the supremacy of the ruling 1982, however, Tanzania embarked agencies were forced to deal di- Chama cha Mapinduzi party. Zanzi- on its own structural adjustment rectly with the rebels. The two- baris have called instead for a fed- program, which included many of week delay evidently occurred be- eral constitution to ensure some au- the Fund's recommendations. The cause "there doesn't seem to be tonomy for the island. success of that program is now be- much of an organized authority in Ali Hassan Mwinyi, a Zanzibari, lieved to be heavily dependent on the opposition forces." Red Cross has been appointed as interim presi- the injection of new funds from the workers have apparently returned dent, and elections for a new presi- IMF. However, informed sources to the area after the release of the dent will be held on March 10. are pessimistic about the chances of last of the hostages in January, and The central government's posi- the two parties coming to an agree- the Red Cross delegation has actu- tion is that neither the supremacy of ment. The Fund reportedly feels ally "been reinforced" since late the party nor the status of the union that Tanzania is proposing mea- last year. The presence of interna- is open to debate. Party statements sures which do not directly address tional Red Cross workers "has have called for harsh action against the severe economic situation in added a certain amount of security pro-independence groups, and in a which the country now finds itself. for the local Red Cross relief peo- speech, Nyerere commended ple." Jumbe while blaming "foreign ele- UGANDA: Out of control The Red Cross had earlier sus- ments" for misleading the people of • In early January, rebels kid- pended its activities in the rebel- Zanzibar. napped eleven Red Cross workers held areas of the north as a reaction in Mpigi district, 40 miles southwest to the killing of a driver and a nurse • Tanzania has been engaged in ar- of Kampala. Nine of the hostages last November, but then resumed duous negotiations with the IMF were released two days later, but a its operations after receiving safety over a badly needed $250 million French doctor and a Ugandan were assurances from the government. three-year standby facility. The last held for an additional two weeks be- (See story on Uganda, page 24.) CENTRAL AFRICA C.A.R.'s Kolingba reshuffles again to outmaneuver opponents • In January, the Head of State, President David Dacko in late 1981. gui's apparent egotism and ambi- General Andre Kolingba, an- Bangui and Mapouka both figured tion may finally have led to his de- nounced his third cabinet reshuffle prominently in all of Kolingba's five motion from Kolingba's cabinet. in II months. Lt.-Col. Jean-Louis previous cabinets, and their demo- Along with the cabinet reshuffle. Gervil Yambala, an extremely influ- tion—particularly that of Bangui— Kolingba announced changes in the ential figure considered friendly is noteworthy. panel of eight civilians which he has with Libya, became the minister of Lt.-Gen. Bangui is the second-in- gradually assembled over the last state for economy and finance. Lt.- command of the CAR army after two years. The civilian "high com- Col. Alphonse Gombadi. another Kolingba. He is also one of the most missioners." he announced, are member of Kolingba's inner circle, experienced politicians in the CAR, "autonomous" and responsible for took over the ministry of state for having served as ambassador to reporting to the council of ministers rural development. France under former "Emperor" "whenever the need arises." Col. Francois Diallo, who was Jean-Bedel Bokassa as well as for- At least four of the civilians have brought into the government last eign minister and deputy prime min- governmental experience. Francois year, retained his post of secretary ister under Dacko. He is also re- Gueret, named high commissioner of state for national defense. But puted to have extensive business in- of state enterprises and joint ven- two ministers who were considered terests in the CAR, France, and the tures, is a magistrate and a former close to Kolingba—Lt.-Gen. U.S. Bangui launched the first in- justice minister under Dacko. Sylvestre Bangui, who last served ternal opposition party after the fall Widely respected for his insistence as minister of state for economy and of Bokassa in 1979. on investigating the affairs of Bo- finance, and Lt.-Col. Thomas Ma- Bangui served in Dacko's gov- kassa's former associates, he is also pouka, who was minister of state for ernment, but he resigned when a vocal advocate of a return to a energy—were dropped from the Dacko gave the premiership to multi-party system. government. someone else in a cabinet reshuffle. Jean-Claude Kazagui, named The retention of Gombadi and Nevertheless, Bangui was later al- high commissioner for scientific Yambala was no surprise. But Ban- leged to have been the "pivot man" and technical research, served as gui and Mapouka were also charter in a counter-coup to be mounted by secretary-general of Dacko's party, members of the original junta, led Dacko against Kolingba. One West- the UDC. Although he was consid- by Kolingba, which overthrew ern observer speculated thai Ban- ered to be one of Dacko's "hard-

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 35 liners," Kazagui's 1981 visit to the one of the few CAR politicians un- ployed in Bangui, to whom he has U.S. State Department in Washing- tainted by close contact with Bo- continually made extravagant ton, only weeks before Kolingba kassa. Because of his years of exile promises throughout his political overthrew Dacko. may have been in France and friendship with career—including the proposal to connected with the coup. French President Mitterrand's ad- end the landlocked nation's trans- Guy Darian, the high commis- visers, Goumba is the man the portation problems by building a sioner for planning, economic, and French would most like to see in fleet of giant balloons to carry ex- financial cooperation, is a leading power. Patasse", who might well ports to the sea. economist and a former adviser to have defeated Dacko in the March Patasse is not admired by intel- Bokassa. Emmanuel Abdoul, new 1981 presidential elections had they lectuals, who point out that he was high commissioner for national ser- been honest, remains a popular fig- Bokassa's prime minister for sev- vice and youth promotion, was min- ure in the CAR. But neither man has eral years and ran the state tobacco ister of state for agriculture and live- a sufficiently large or powerful fol- and cotton industries in an era when stock under Bokassa and Dacko, as lowing to threaten Kolingba's re- corruption flourished. However, well as Dacko's special regional en- gime. Patasse" s popularity among the un- voy. employed and among his fellow The role of the civilians in the Up up and away northerners is a constant threat to "new" government is not expected Patasse. who went into exile in Kolingba, who fears that Patasse to be significant. Kolingba may Libya during Bokassa's reign, is be- may some day procure Libyan as- hope that Gueret, whom he first lieved to be seeking Libyan aid to sistance to overthrow him. How- named a high commissioner last overthrow Kolingba. In 1982, Pa- ever, by retaining Lt.-Col. Yambala April, will eventually lend a degree tasse' returned to the CAR amid tre- in his cabinet, Kolingba has kept his of legitimacy to the government. mendous popular acclaim. Immedi- own "Libyan connection" intact, Meanwhile, the two leading op- ately after returning, he attempted a clearly intending to pre-empt any position figures are virtually power- coup, which failed to unseat Ko- such move by Patasse". less: Abel Goumba, although freed lingba but did provoke massive riots In short, the return to civilian from prison, remains under strict in sympathy with Patasse. Forced rule—which Kolingba has fre- surveillance; and Ange Patasse is into exile in Togo, Patasse remains quently declared to be his ultimate living in exile in Togo. Goumba is a hero among the urban unem- goal—seems as remote as ever. • CAMEROON: The anglophones suspect that the In Habre" s absence, the Chadian Biya re-elected centralization of the government is delegation would normally have a deliberate move to increase the been led by Idriss Miskine, the vice dominance of the francophone ma- president and foreign minister. • Since incumbent President Paul jority. Only days before the talks were to Biya ran unopposed in the January begin, however, Miskine suffered a elections, the only question was the CHAD: Foiled again severe attack of malaria and died percentage of votes he would re- • The OAU-sponsored peace talks within 48 hours. Miskine was the ceive. Biya was elected with 99.98 scheduled to be held in Addis only official besides Habre whom percent of the vote. Ababa in early January never took Goukouni considered important Biya's predecessor, Ahmadou place. Goukouni Oueddei led a del- enough to lead the peace delega- Ahidjo, who resigned in late 1982, egation of 130 members of the tion. was customarily re-elected by simi- GUNT coalition opposed to the GUNT's "Radio Bardai" said lar landslides, but 1.5 million more government of Hissene Habre, and that Miskine had been the victim of votes were cast in this poll than in he was greeted in person by Col. a "disguised political assassina- the 1980 re-election of Ahidjo. Mengistu Haile Mariam, Ethiopian tion." The radio reminded its listen- Two weeks after Biya's election, leader and chairman of the OAU. ers that, last August, Habre" had ac- the National Assembly endorsed Habre claimed that he alone, as cused the French government of constitutional reforms which elimi- the Chadian president recognized asking Miskine to overthrow him. nated the post of prime minister and by the OAU, was entitled to a presi- At that time, Habre" added that Mis- changed the official name of the dential welcome. Angered by the kine had refused the French offers country from the United Republic warm reception given to Goukouni, of "total support," and he defended of Cameroon to the Republic of Habre refused to attend the talks, Miskine "as atrue patriot and a true Cameroon. and he sent a smaller delegation of soldier who knows what he is do- These changes have alarmed 26 members to Addis Ababa. The ing." some members of the anglophone delegation was led by Tahar Late last year, however, Miskine minority. The northwestern part of Guinassou, Habre" s Minister of In- did meet in Paris with Acheikh Ibn the country, which is largely En- terior. Oumar, the leader of a Libyan- glish-speaking, has been neglected Goukouni then refused to meet backed faction of GUNT. That dis- by the francophone-dominated cen- with Guinassou, whom he consid- creet meeting indicated that France tral government, and there have ered too insignificant a figure to lead was using Miskine to find an "rea- been several outbreaks of violence a delegation. OAU diplomats tried sonable alternative" to Goukouni between anglophones and govern- to save the negotiations, but the and Habre, and some observers felt ment security forces in the last year. talks collapsed within five days. that France and Libya were consid-

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 Zaire. Several agreements were reached: at least three large Israeli Sudan: World center for ivory smuggling corporations will discuss invest- More than 900 metric tons of ivory have been exported by Sudan since ment possibilities in Zaire; the Is- 1976, according to Dr. Esmond Bradley Martin, an American authority raeli military will help expand Presi- on the subject. The ivory comes from several East and Central African dent Mobutu Sese Seko's Special countries and is funnelled through Khartoum, where it is licensed for Presidential Brigade into a full divi- export to Hong Kong and East Asia. sion; and Mobutu accepted an invi- The smugglers obtain export licenses for Sudanese ivory and then use tation to visit Israel sometime in the the licenses to export ivory brought into Sudan from neighboring Afri- future. can counlries. The quality and quantity of ivory being exported indi- Only weeks later. President cates that it is being poached by well-equipped groups working in Zaire, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt visited the Central African Republic, Tanzania, and Uganda. Zaire. During the visit, Mubarak Sudanese officials in London denied the existence of a large ivory and Mobutu discussed various Mid- trade, emphasizing their country's commitment to conservation and dle East and African issues. Mu- recently implemented anti-poaching measures. However, government barak's visit was intended to "open records show certain inconsistencies: In 1978. the Bank of Sudan said 9 new horizons for bilateral relations metric tons of ivory were exported, but the Ministry of Finance and between Egypt and Zaire." Egypt Economic Planning gave a figure of 17.4 metric tons. In 1979 and 1980, will expand the training of Zairian the bank said that no ivory was exported, but the ministry records show military personnel in Egyptian figures of 23.5 metric tons for 1979 and 182.8 metric tons for 1980. academies. Furthermore, there is evidence that in 1977, a mystery shipment of 315 metric tons was sent to Saudi Arabia and was never entered into Sudan's • Zaire recently rescheduled its export records, which showed only 20 metric tons exported that year. debt at a meeting of the "Paris Club" of international financiers. Last year, according to Martin, a foreign group armed with automatic More than $1 billion of debt falling weapons entered a national park in southern Sudan and set up an exten- due in 1984 and 1985 was rolled sive poaching operation. The Sudanese government was either unwill- over, with an 11-year period of re- ing or unable to dislodge the poachers. Experts say that the mastermind payment and five years of grace. of the network uses his influential connections so effectively that he was The rescheduling was granted after able to export some 200 tons of ivory in 1983. Although Martin did not remarkably swift negotiations last- name the man, the London Sunday Times believes him to be a Sudanese, ing only two days, an indication of Mohamed Awadalla el Awad, who has offices in Khartoum and Hong the favor earned by Zaire since its Kong. currency devaluation and austerity Furious with the ineptitude of the UN and other international organi- measures introduced last year. An zations, Martin wants the government of Hong Kong to ban all imports additional credit from the IMF of of ivory while the Convention on International Trade in Endangered $350 million, which was pledged on Species (CITES) investigates the issue. He has also called on the private condition that Zaire reached a re- traders of Hong Kong and Kowloon to boycott all Sudanese ivory. scheduling agreement, was freed up Acquiescing to growing pressure, CITES has persuaded Sudan to stop after the Paris Club meeting. all ivory exports as of December 30, 1983. Meanwhile, the elephant population of Africa may have suffered irreversible harm. ZAMBIA: ering Miskine himself as a possible French aircraft was shot down days Partial debt reschedule "third man" acceptable to both before, France advanced its forces • Zambia has reached separate countries. After his death, "Radio 60 miles north of the "red line." agreements with Great Britain, the Bardai" described Miskine as "a pushing back Goukouni's troops. U.S., and Belgium, its principal supporter of a peaceful solution to Fighting also broke out between the creditors, on rescheduling large the Chad conflict." two Chadian armies during Chey- amounts of its foreign debt. The Miskine. who was only 35 years sson's visit, with each side claiming agreement with Great Britain cov- old, had been in good health. Chad- to have inflicted heavy casualties. ers $42 million of trade arrears and ian officials said that the suggestion Cheysson called for a mutual with- other debts; negotiations on an ad- that Miskine had been killed was a drawal of Libyan and French ditional $98 million of similar debts "groundless rumor only certain in- forces, but Libya continued to deny have not yet begun. The American dividuals could believe." A week- the presence of its troops there, and rescheduling agreement covers long period of national mourning it was not anticipated that Libya nearly $34 million in debts and trade was decreed after Miskine's death, would withdraw its forces without arrears, while the agreement with and a successor was not immedi- admitting their existence. Belgium reschedules more than $5 ately named. million of financial credits and com- In February. French Foreign ZAIRE: mercial contracts. Minister Claude Cheysson visited Middle Eastern guests However, Zambia's commercial Libya, Chad, and Ethiopia in an un- • In January. Israeli President bank debt, which is substantial, successful attempt to revive the Chaim Herzog became the highest- awaits a comprehensive reschedul- deadlocked negotiations. After a ranking Israeli official ever to visit ing agreement.

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 37 NORTHERN AFRICA Riots in Tunisia and Morocco force government concessions In January, rioting erupted in Tu- that he had not reacted quickly Morocco: Quick turnaround nisia and Morocco. More than 100 enough to quell the violence. Morocco's need to raise prices Tunisians and at least 29 Moroccans Although he knew that Prime was more urgent than Tunisia's. were killed in violence sparked by Minister Mohamed Mzali was The nation's foreign debt is $11 bil- increases in the price of grains and widely considered to be the archi- lion, and the war in the Western Sa- other staple foods. tect of the price increases, Bour- hara is costing an estimated $1-2 In both countries there were guiba went on television himself to million per day. other factors which contributed to announce that the increases would Morocco's riots began when uni- the unrest. More than a quarter of be rescinded. By doing so, Bour- versity students protested tuition the work force in Morocco and Tu- guiba reinforced his image as a su- hikes and stricter academic stan- nisia is unemployed, and because of pra-governmental authority able to dards. The student unrest inspired the recession in France, Tunisians step in and correct his ministers' the populace to demonstrate against and Moroccans can no longer find mistakes. Tunisians continued to the creeping price rises that were in- work there. Drought in both coun- hold Mzali responsible for the price stituted last August as part of an tries has forced an influx of rural hikes and the subsequent blood- IMF austerity program. people to the cities, where jobs are shed. Some called for his resigna- The worst rioting took place in already scarce. Foreign exchange tion, demonstrating outside his of- the north, which is suffering from earnings from each country's main fice with cries of "Mzali is a don- drought. The northerners have also export commodity—Morocco's key." Since Mzali is Bourguiba's been hurt by a recent government phosphates and Tunisia's oil and designated successor to the presi- crackdown on their smuggling be- gas—have fallen significantly in re- dency, it is difficult to understand tween Morocco and the Spanish en- cent years. And finally, religious why Bourguiba insisted on monop- claves of Ceuta and Melilla. After fundamentalists are marshalling op- olizing the credit for rescinding the three days of heavy rioting in north- position to government policies price increases. "Mzali is left hold- ern cities and towns. King Hassan which they claim are not based on ing the bag," one observer com- II went on television and cancelled the principles of Islam. mented. the price increases. At the same Tunisia: Sudden price increases Besides undermining Mzali's au- time he blamed the riots on "Zionist Tunisia has been spending 20 per- thority, the riots increased tensions intelligence ... the infidel Kho- cent of its gross domestic product between the government and oppo- meini . . . and the Marxists, the on food subsidies, funds which the sition parties. At the end of last Leninists, and the communists." government would prefer to chan- year, Bourguiba legalized two par- The king also warned children tak- nel into its drive toward industrial- ties, authorizing them to participate ing part in the protests that they ization. Bread prices had not in- in national elections for the first would be treated like adults. (As the creased significantly in two dec- time. The opposition parties were Tunisian rioters had done, the Mo- ades, and large quantities of bread silent during the riots, but Ahmed roccans had placed children in the went to waste, leading the govern- Mestiri, leader of the Socialist Dem- front lines of the protest marches to ment to conclude that the subsidies ocratic Movement (MDS), later de- discourage police retaliation.) Calm were an extravagance. Despite the clared that "the entire responsibil- soon returned to Morocco after the urgent warnings from economic ad- ity" for the unrest lay with the gov- king's speech, and workers did not visers that "it would be akin to set- ernment. respond to calls for a general strike ting off a bomb," the government Fundamentalist members of the to protest the violence. went ahead with its plans and can- illegal "Islamic Movement" played In a further effort to placate the celled the subsidies in January. The at least an incidental part in the ri- general public, Hassan ordered a price of bread, which had been kept ots. Tunisia has tried for several crackdown on merchants accused artificially low, suddenly became years to suppress the movement, of hoarding goods and raising prohibitive. Rioting then erupted which expresses admiration for prices. Shops were closed down throughout the country. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini of and violators fined. After a week of violence. Presi- Iran and advocates turning away Organized resistance dent Habib Bourguiba rescinded from government policies of "mod- In Morocco, these events recall the price increases, leaving many ernization and Westernization.'' the riots of June 198J, when the gov- Tunisians feeling that the deaths The authorities have been unable ernment halved food price hikes could have been avoided. to eradicate the movement because and raised salaries to placate rioters The government was criticized the fundamentalists' beliefs are in Casablanca. Both Morocco and for its slow response, which al- only a more extreme version of the Tunisia now have organizations lowed the rioting to spread to the official religion of the state. Their with large constituencies and differ- major cities of Tunis and Sfax. role in the riots could enhance the ent purposes—student groups, la- Bourguiba later dismissed Interior political influence of these religious bor unions, opposition parties, and Minister Driss Guiga on the grounds activists. the Islamic fundamentalist move-

38 AFHICA REPORT • March-April 1984 ment. Any of these groups could on the New Wafd Party, overruling and sprayed the area with automatic mobilize large sectors of the popula- the government's Political Parties gunfire. The camp was only lightly tion to change or resist government Commission, which had declared guarded since the removal of gov- policies. The "success" of riots in the party illegal. ernment troops from the immediate drawing concessions from the gov- At almost the same time, a candi- area only weeks before. ernments poses serious problems date from the ruling National Dem- Chevron then withdrew 200 civil- for both countries. • ocratic Party of President Hosni ian employees from the area. "We Mubarak was defeated by an oppo- shall not be starting up again until ALGERIA: Chadli romps nent from the leftist National Un- security seems established, and the ionist Progressive Party in a parlia- situation is no longer threatening," • Winning more than 95 percent of mentary runoff in Alexandria. a company spokesman said. Mean- the vote. President Chadli Benjedid Those two events indicate that while, drilling and exploration are was re-elected in January to a sec- the elections for the national assem- continuing in other areas of south- ond five-year term. Chadli then an- bly, to be held at the end of May, ern Sudan. nounced extensive changes in his will be strongly contested. Many The rebels, loosely grouped un- cabinet, appointing Abdelhamid observers feel that the strength of Brahimi, former minister of plan- der the leadership of John Garang, a the New Wafd, along with competi- U.S.-trained Ph.D. and former ning, to replace Mohamed Ab- tion from the smaller parties, may dclghani as prime minister. colonel in the Sudanese army, be- ensure the establishment of true lieve that the oil wealth belongs to After Chadli's re-election, he or- multi-party democracy in Egypt for the people of the south, and they are dered full amnesty for 17 detainees the first time. committed to preventing the north- and partial commutation of prison erners from taking it. Sudanese gov- sentences for several dozen more. • After its suspension from the Is- ernment officials have blamed the The elections and reshuffle came lamic Conference Organization attacks on foreign forces, Ethiopia soon after a month-long party con- (ICO) following the signing of a in particular, which it claims are try- gress of the ruling National Libera- peace treaty with Israel in 1979, ing to ruin Sudan's economic pros- tion Front (FLN). During the con- Egypt was readmitted to the group pects. gress, several "radicals" were at its January meeting in Casa- dropped from the FLN's central blanca. The vote was decisive: 32-0 For some time there was an un- committee, including former secu- in favor of readmission, with Syria, derstanding between the rebels and rity chief Ahmed Draia and Moha- Libya, South Yemen, Algeria, Tu- Chevron that the oil operations med Salah Yahyaoui. a close asso- nisia, Mauritania, and Benin refus- would not be attacked, but the ing to vote. rebels abandoned that stance after ciate of late President Houari the government stepped up military Boumedienne. The reacceptance of Egypt into and political actions against south- • In foreign policy, Algeria contin- the ICO has been widely heralded ern insurgents. ued its efforts to improve relations as a sign of its "return to the Arab fold." Egypt's relations with the Though the recent attack was with its neighbors to the south. widely publicized. Chevron re- Ahmed Taleb Ibrahimi, Minister of Arab world are definitely improv- ing, with delegations being ex- mained quiet about earlier rebel ac- Foreign Affairs, visited Nouakchott tivity directed against the oil opera- and Dakar in late January for talks changed with Jordan and Iraq, and Yasser Arafat visiting Cairo. tions. Last November, rebels be- with high-level Mauritanian, Ma- longing to the Southern People's lian, and Senegalese officials. Ibra- But Egypt's readmission to the Liberation Army kidnapped and himi's visit coincided with the third more important Arab League at its later released employees of Chev- meeting of the Algerian-Senegalese March meeting in Riyadh is un- ron and other firms. There have also joint commission, which discussed likely, because the vote there would been additional confirmed reports cultural, economic, and technologi- have to be unanimous. Syria and of rebel attacks against the oil com- cal cooperation. Libya, among others, are certain to pany. Chevron employees who At the same time, the American vote against Egypt. have been in contact with the rebels Secretary of Agriculture, John R. have reported that the rebels have Block, led a delegation visiting Al- SUDAN: promised to sabotage the oil fields geria to discuss cooperation in agri- Rebels attack and the pipeline if the guerrilla war cultural technology. Under Boume- • Chevron, a subsidiary of Stan- continues. dienne, agriculture was neglected in dard Oil of California, has tempo- The pipeline is being built to carry favor of heavy industry; Chadli's rarily suspended its activities in oil from the wells to a point on the government is seeking to improve some southern oilfields after rebels Red Sea south of Port Sudan from Algeria's agricultural production. attacked a company camp under where it will be shipped to other Block's visit follows American Vice construction on Rub Kona Island in countries for refining. The 900-mile- President George Bush"s trip to Al- the Bahr El-Ghazal river. Anya Nya long pipeline will pass through geria last September. II rebels claimed responsibility for about 550 miles of southern terri- the early February attack, which tory where it will be most vulnera- EGYPT: left three Chevron employees dead ble to sabotage. Security options Political competition and at least seven wounded. Wit- under discussion include burying • An Egyptian high court recently nesses said that 15 to 20 heavily the pipe several yards underground. conferred legitimate political status armed men entered the compound There is also a plan to build a 300-

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 mile road parallel to the pipeline at After the February attack, Suda- and armored units, was effective in its most vulnerable points, which nese First Vice President Omar el- temporarily driving back Polisario would enable the army to respond Tayeb promised military protection forces. more quickly to attempts at sabo- for the oil company and immedi- Morocco's apparent military suc- tage. ately airlifted 100 paratroopers to cess has allowed King Hassan II to Only days before the attack. the region. gain public support for a more in- Chevron sold its holdings in the transigent position on the issue of pipeline venture to Royal Dutch WESTERN SAHARA: negotiations. Representatives of Shell. Chevron also sold part of its the Saharawi Arab Democratic Re- oilfield holdings, thus reducing by Threat to the OAU public (SADR) can also be expected 25 percent its investments in Sudan • Renewed fighting between Mo- to take a harder line, and it is certain in an attempt to "spread the risk roccan troops and Polisario guerril- that they will not withdraw from around." las has dimmed what slight hopes this year's OAU summit as they did Chevron, the U.S., and Sudan existed for a political settlement of last year. The SADR removed itself are working together in their efforts the Western Sahara issue. Morocco from the 1983 summit with the un- to secure the oil operations. There began a large-scale offensive one derstanding that Morocco would are reports that a contingent of U.S. week before the December 31, 1983 cooperate with efforts to hold a ref- marines was stationed at Rub Kona deadline set by the OAU for the im- erendum on the future of the West- for a while, and in November, a se- plementation of a peace plan. The ern Sahara. cret U.S. military mission was sent fighting then continued sporadically There now appears to be little to Sudan to appraise the security through January, with both sides chance of avoiding a repetition of situation in the south. Chevron claiming to have inflicted heavy ca- the events of 1982, when Morocco hosted the mission and former U.S. sualties. Independent observers, twice forced the cancellation of the military attach^ to the Sudan, Col. however, have said that the Moroc- OAU summit by leading a walkout James Barren, is now employed by can offensive, which employed by 19 other African countries to Chevron. 25,000 troops, heavy air support, protest the seating of the SADR. SOUTHERN AFRICA SADCC conference seeks drought relief, criticizes donors Members of the nine-nation region's "socialist" states of An- SADCC officials feel that Britain Southern African Development Co- gola, Mozambique, and Tanzania. is simply using its previous pledge ordination Conference (SADCC) SADCC would not accept the con- as an excuse to avoid giving further met in Lusaka, Zambia, in early dition, and Denis Norman, Zim- aid. They point out that even the February and urgently requested babwe's minister of agriculture, U.S. has praised the efficiency with $450 million in aid to combat the ef- was delegated to go to Washington which SADCC has utilized aid for fects of drought and floods. SADCC to resolve the issue. The U.S. was transport projects. "We would like estimated that the drought has al- also criticized for reducing its con- to see a more positive attitude from ready cost southern African coun- tribution to the International Devel- Britain," one SADCC official com- tries more than $920 million in lost opment Association (IDA). mented. "Real cooperation means crops and relief expenditures. The Britain came under fire after it sitting down to break bottlenecks, cost is certain to continuing rising, said that no new funds would be which Britain did not do." as it now appears that Zimbabwe's given to SADCC "because only a Other donors have responded spring maize harvest will be well be- tiny fraction of the money we have more positively to SADCC re- low normal, and even South Africa, pledged has so far been spent.'' The quests. Canada pledged $85 million, which has been a source of inexpen- British were referring to $14 million the African Development Bank sive grain imports, is facing a sec- that they had donated for the reha- gave $50 million, and the EEC ond consecutive maize crop failure. bilitation of a railway linking Mo- promised $175 million for rural de- Donors, however, pledged only zambique with Zimbabwe. SADCC velopment projects in the southern $350 million. officials claim that the delay has African countries. • Arthur Blumeris, executive sec- been caused by British bureauc- retary of SADCC, said that racy. "They've given us that same ANGOLA: "SADCC and Western donor na- money three times," said Mozam- tions will discuss ways to create re- bique's minister of transport. The More help from USSR gional food reserves." money was first pledged three years • During the massive South Afri- The conference also criticized the ago and then promised again at last can invasion of Angola in January, U.S. for politicizing its aid. The year's SADCC meeting in Maseru. Angolan Foreign Minister Lopo do U.S. Agency for International De- When Mozambique's President Sa- Nascimento went to Moscow and velopment (USAID) pledged $18 mora Machel went to Britain last signed an agreement securing addi- million for a vital project to develop October, he was again given the tional military aid from the Soviet millet and sorghum crops in 1983. money "with great fanfare," ac- Union to strengthen Angola's "de- However, USAID refused to allow cording to London's Guardian fenses, independence, and territo- any of the funds to be used by the newspaper. rial integrity." Although no details

40 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1994 of the agreement were given, the chie Mogwe retorted that Botswana Bank classifies Malawi as the elev- Soviet Union was believed to have "would adhere to her political sys- enth-poorest nation in the world, pledged a large increase of funds tem of a multi-party democracy as with a per capita GNP of only $200. and military equipment, as well as prescribed by the constitution." The adult literacy rate in Malawi is further monetary support for the Mogwe also claimed that "Bot- only 25 percent. Life expectancy at Cuban troops in Angola. swana is the only country in Africa birth is only 44 years—a surprising The agreement came only days without political detainees or peo- statistic for a country with an agri- after South African sources con- ple in exile for political reasons." cultural surplus, and an indication firmed earlier reports that the So- that Malawi's social services are se- viet government had expressly verely inadequate. warned that it would not allow LESOTHO: South Africa to "overthrow the An- Stirring opposition • Banda has been silent on the ap- golan government.'' peal by Orton and Vera Chirwa that • Prime Minister Leabua Jonathan their death sentences be commuted. • A dozen senior ex-officers of the announced at the end of 1983 that Orton Chirwa, a lawyer and a Portuguese army have been training elections, the first since 1970, former justice minister under Angolan instructors and forming a would be held "in the new year." Banda, and his wife Vera, Malawi's special unit to combat the rebel Jonathan then asserted that a coup first woman lawyer, were sen- forces of Jonas Savimbi's Unita attempt was being plotted in South tenced to death for treason last De- movement. Portuguese merce- Africa, and several people were de- cember. The judge who would nor- naries continue to be recruited into tained in Lesotho in connection mally preside over the appellate Angola by Admiral Rosa Coutinho, with the alleged plot. court. Chief Mbelwa, reportedly a retired "leftist" Portuguese offi- Only hours after Jonathan an- refused to be involved in the cer who once was high commis- nounced that elections would be Chirwas'trial. When Chief Mbelwa sioner in Luanda. held, government security forces later disappeared, the government Coutinho's activities and the ac- raided the home of Charles Moiefi, said that he had returned to his celerated delivery of Russian weap- the leader of the opposition United home in the north, but several ons have supplemented the latest Democratic Party. The UDP offices months later he died in a Lilongwe government offensive against Un- were also raided and searched. hospital. The Chirwas* son Fum- ita. Government troops retook An- In late January, Lesotho claimed bani disappeared more than two dulo in early January, ending Un- that South African Foreign Minister years ago, and his fate is still un- ita's brief occupation of the strate- Roelof Botha had held secret meet- known. gic town, which commands one of ings with a Lesotho private citizen Angola's most important roads. and that "South Africa is presently The Unita retreat was also a psy- engaged in the process of handpick- MOZAMBIQUE: chological victory for the govern- ing individuals whom it would like Costs of destabillzation ment, for Andulo is the birthplace of to constitute an alternative govern- Unita leader Jonas Savimbi. ment in Lesotho." • In early February, Mozambique During the South African inva- asked its creditors to reschedule its sion, Unita did not make any major MALAWI: $1.4 billion foreign debt. The re- scheduling, said the government, independent advances against gov- No millionaires ernment troops. The relative quiet was made necessary by South Afri- along Unita's battlefront led some • In a recent radiobroadcast, Pres- ca's "direct aggression and eco- observers to speculate that supplies ident-for-Life Hastings Kamuzu nomic destabilization." In a docu- and other support were not reaching Banda responded to allegations by ment circulated to diplomats in Ma- Unita so long as the South African "certain foreign journalists that the puto, the government of forces were occupied with other country is poverty-stricken." Mozambique claimed that by re- concerns farther south. Banda emphasized that "people stricting the number of Mozambi- everywhere in this country have can workers in South Africa, re- enough food, dress in decent routing South African trade away clothes, and live in good houses that from Mozambican ports, and spon- BOTSWANA: General do not leak." soring the "armed bandits" of the elections Banda said that journalists who Mozambique National Resistance, • The ruling Botswana Democratic called Malawi poor were "mali- South Africa has cost the economy Party (BDP) of President Quett Ma- cious liars, ignorant and preju- of Mozambique "almost $4 billion" sire announced that general elec- diced," and that Malawi "was not since 1975. tions would be held later this year, interested in making millionaires, But the tone of the document was but did not specify the date. The op- but in having enough food, decent more moderate in discussing the re- position Botswana National Front clothes, and good housing." Banda cent negotiations with South Af- (BNF) claimed in its New Year reminded his listeners that Malawi rica, which "open the possibility of message to its supporters that "gen- was one of Africa's few countries to economic and stable relations, eral discontent" would result if the be self-sufficient in food. Malawi safety and equality, and mutual BDP "continued cheating in the also exports surplus food to neigh- benefit on the principle of non-inter- election in orderto stay in power." boring countries. ference in each other's internal af- Minister of Foreign Affairs Ar- On the other hand, the World fairs. This allows us to look to the

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 41 future with greater hope and confi- ponents, unfinished sub-assemblies ing travel within the country nearly dence." and other technology that can be impossible. At least two dozen peo- easily submerged in large wholesale ple were killed, and the government SOUTH AFRICA: transactions." declared a state of emergency and U.S. military technology Thomas Conrad, a spokesman for issued an urgent international ap- • More than $28 million worth of the Quaker group, said, "The U.S. peal for disaster relief aid. military-related technology and po- government claims that these ex- lice gear has been exported by ports are for civilian use. But this ZIMBABWE: American businesses to South Af- equipment has military applica- State of emergency tions, and the State Department has rica since 1981, according to a re- • The Fifth Brigade has returned to port issued by the American acknowledged that the products are on the 'munitions list.'" Matabeleland to combat infiltration Friends Service Committee and the by anti-government rebels allegedly Washington Office on Africa. The But a State official said that none trained and armed by South Africa, report also said that British. of the items on the munitions list and a state of emergency has been French, West German, Italian and violated the UN embargo. declared. Minister of Home Affairs Swiss military technology had "A large number of the sales Simbi Mubako said that "troops reached South Africa. were of encoding devices for bank will be increased to whatever level According to the report, these teller machines," he said. "Our ob- is considered necessary to deal with government-approved exports of jective is to ensure that we sell no the increased infiltration." arms-related technology constitute military-use items to anyone in The government claims that the a "grave violation" of the 1977 UN South Africa, but we will approve latest rebel activity is "a second Security Council mandatory weap- sales for civilian use if we are satis- phase of terrorism," emphasizing ons embargo, to which the coun- fied that the private users are genu- South Africa's backing of the ele- tries named are signatories. ine." ments of Joshua Nkomo's dis- Outright sales of U.S. arms to banded Zipra army which have South Africa have been stopped, UDF opens drive against S.A. Constitution been accused of the attacks. the report said, but instead "ex- Speaking in early February, gov- ports by U.S. corporations consist The United Democratic Front ernment spokesmen said that 459 to a great extent of the building (UDF) launched a campaign in Jan- rebels had been killed or captured blocks of modern weaponry—com- uary to collect a million signatures by security forces in the last two as part of its drive against the South years, and that in the last year the PANA: A slow start African government's plan to give rebels had killed 120 people, muti- Indians and Coloureds (mixed-race lated 23, and raped 47. PANA, the Pan-African News people) a limited voice in parlia- Meanwhile, a commission of in- Agency, which was launched ment. quiry opened to hear allegations with much fanfare last May, has UDF's publicity secretary, Pa- that the Fifth Brigade had commit- scarcely been heard from since. trick Lekota, said the campaign will ted atrocities against civilians be- PANA's service coordinator, "illustrate symbolically to the tween January and May of last year. Swaebou Conateh, recently dis- South African government that The commission was swamped by cussed some of the reasons why. blacks still fought and opposed the people wishing to testify, and the Conateh said that articles re- laws of this country." hearings had to be extended from ceived by PANA are often too The UDF also held a rally to pro- two weeks to a month. parochial to interest a wide Afri- test the continued detention in can audience, and that other ar- Ciskei, the homeland made "inde- • In early January, Prime Minister ticles are purely political tirades. pendent" by Pretoria, of Father Robert Mugabe made several im- Technology is another prob- Smangaliso Mkhatshwa, the gen- portant changes in his cabinet. The lem. PANA has six offices, in- eral secretary of the South African minister of home affairs, Herbert cluding its headquarters in Da- Catholic Bishops' Conference. Ushewokunze, was demoted to kar. However, the regional of- Mkhatshwa is a UDF patron. minister of transport. Ushewo- fices in Lagos, Khartoum, kunze had been criticized for his ar- Kinshasa, Tripoli, and Lusaka SWAZILAND: bitrary use of emergency powers are not fully equipped to receive and is noted for his radical rhetoric. telexed articles, and many of the Violent floods Commenting on Ushewokunze's articles arrive garbled. • In a cruel twist of fate, Swazi- new role, Mugabe said: "Whatever PANA is also facing financial land, which has been stricken by his shortcomings, he has a brilliant problems. Many of the member drought for almost two years, was brain which he should be able to ap- countries have not paid their sub- devastated by flooding in late Janu- ply to the problems of the railways scription dues. At present, most ary when Cyclone Domoina, com- and the national airways." The new of the agency's financing comes ing off the Indian Ocean, lashed home affairs minister is Simbi Mu- from UNESCO, but PANA must across the coast of southern Africa. bako. wait for African nations to fulfill Swaziland is mountainous and Mugabe also reduced the number their obligations before it can op- crisscrossed by a dense network of of ministries from 28 to 22 in an ef- erate at full capacity. rivers. The flooding washed out fort to make the government bu- bridges, roads, and railways, mak- reaucracy more efficient.

42 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 GUINEA Sekou Toure's Ouverture

BY JUSTIN MENDY

losed off from the outside world the fact that the country said no to the C for more than a decade after gain- 1958 Gaul list referendum offering ing independence in 1958. Sekou membership in a community of French Toure's Guinea has embarked upon a overseas territories. Guinea was the determined open-door policy. This only French colony to reject the French policy was proclaimed at the eleventh proposal. congress of the Guinean Democratic Toure explains that the country was Party — the only party — in 1978, isolated as soon as it renounced French when Toure announced that the party protection — it found itself without a now sought * "broad cooperation with cent in the bank and no credit with capitalist as well as socialist states" in foreign lenders. All aid and technical order to "consolidate the freedom of assistance from France was suspended, our people and raise the level of their and French investment in mining came prosperity.'' The twelfth congress, to a halt. The tendency for orders held last November, further confirmed placed in foreign countries not always this option by defining the framework President Sekou Toure: A determined to arrive in time created shortages, and open-door policy — essentially economic — in which it Guinean products exported to France should operate, and its aim — the rapid remained held in French ports for sev- development of the country's agricul- eral months. tural and mineral resources. is also paradoxically one of the least- It was then that Guinea was required Considered both the reservoir of developed countries on the continent, to seek other financial sources in the West Africa where all the rivers of the where nearly everything is in short sup- form of repayable credits. The Eastern subregion have their sources and a ply, and where the decrepit infrastruc- bloc countries, led by the Soviet Union, geological sensation because of the ture is still for the most part that which thus established a foothold in the Gui- immense riches underground, Guinea was left by the colonialists. nean economy, inundating the market The Conakry authorities explain this with their products — and along with phenomenon by maintaining that dur- the products, their political ideology. ing the entire postcolonial period they Western countries stuck by their French Justin Mencly is a freelance journalist have had to face enemies of the people allies, participating in a type of eco- based in Dakar, Senegal. He is the former editor of the Dakar weeklies Afrique Nou- — internal as well as external — at the nomic blockade, which several times velie, L'Ouest Africain, and Le Moniteur same time as fighting against the nearly brought down the regime. Africain and was formerly associated with legacies of colonialism. Perhaps in no "Loans contracted from the exterior Reuters in Dakar. This article was trans- lated from French by Mary Ellen Lavin of other country in Africa have as many obliged us," explained Toure,' 'to take the African-American Institute. abortive conspiracies been uncovered. complete charge in order to pay back Conakry officials explain that all of our debts to those who had shown con- Guinea's misfortunes have arisen out of fidence in us, and it was necessary to

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 43 level, saw their power strengthened — all part of efforts to fuse the party and GUINEA the state. At the 1978 party congress, Toure officially declared his willingness to cooperate with all countries in the world without any prejudice. He said he was sincerely prepared "to forget all the misunderstandings with France and West Germany" (with which Guinea had broken relations). Guinea nor- malized relations with Ivory Coast and Senegal, with which it had been in open conflict. Toure's statements translated into an appeal to the West: "The capitalist countries," he said, "have an immense store of scientific and tech- nological resources and significant fi- nancial resources," and "Guinea will take into account the guarantees that capitalist investors and interests are seeking to obtain." But Western investors, who doubted the sincerity of the Guinean leader and mistrusted what they considered — rightly or wrongly — to be his whims, entrust the management of these loans authorities such as chiefs and mara- did not come running. Campaigns to institutions placed under our control, bouts, and hence stripped their powers against the government by externally through nationalization of trade." away, transferring them to the party. based opposition forces were also a When one considers the Guinean These events caused numerous factor in the reticence of Western bus- penchant for commerce, one can easily Guineans to flee into exile, notably a inessmen and governments. comprehend why this measure was not group that organized an offensive As a result, Conakry organized its at all popular. It gave rise to a large- against the regime on November 20, own campaign to explain its position by scale black market. Refusal to submit to 1970. Foreign and Guinean elements visits and direct contacts in the period new regulations on state trading led to that had grouped together in Portugal from 1979 to 1983. Toure made several what was termed in Conakry "the mer- landed in Conakry not only to over- trips to the United States and Canada chants* conspiracy." From 1960 throw Toure but also to destroy the and a dozen to Europe, and his col- through the early 1970s, Toure an- rear guard of Amilcar Cabral's African leagues undertook numerous other mis- nounced a succession of plots against Party for the Independence of sions. his government, alleging involvement Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde, which Other actions taken to facilitate the at various times by neighboring coun- was fighting Portuguese colonial implementation of the open-door pol- tries, the U.S., Prance, the U.S.S.R.. troops on the border. The attempt icy included: the formulation of a West Germany, or Portugal. At home, failed; and, as after every operation of five-year economic plan (1981 -85); crackdowns and purges followed this type, the revolution was adoption of a new, more liberal Toure"s claims that plots were also radicalized, leading to a purge of the investment code; Guinea's entry into being hatched by the military, the in- party. After 1972, the main criteria in the International Finance Society; and tellectuals, and the Fulani. among choosing people to lead the various organization of a forum at Chase others. As a result of these purges, state organizations was "faithfulness Manhattan Bank in New York in June many people ended up in prison. Some to the people and their revolution." 1982, a seminar in November the same were released, many died there. The early 1970s were a period of ups year at the Economic Council of According to Toure, "some only and downs, for even if the purges Canada, and another in September wanted to go to a certain step. They got clarified the political situation in the 1983 in Paris — all aimed at North off the train when they understood that country, some used them to their ad- American and French investors. we were going to continue on course. vantage to make false or speculative On the domestic side, in the mid- The revolution eliminates the tepid and denunciations and to eliminate any kind to-late 1970s, the government reversed the hesitant as it goes along." And be- of adversary or rival. In other areas, the its prior policies, which had virtually cause the revolution was essentially so- Local Revolutionary Powers (PRLs), eliminated private trade, and permitted cialist in orientation, it did not intend to directed to carry out tasks of applying some private marketing of produce. maintain the former privileges of local the socialist program at the village Private sector cooperatives in the areas

44 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 of commerce, export crops, and ricultural production, the country con- search centers have been set up and diamond and gold mining were or- tinues to import foodstuffs in consider- have developed new varieties of cere- ganized. The government also decided able quantities. "Since indepen- als, rice and maize in particular, which to transform the district agro-pastoral dence," saysToure. "ourcountry, like it is hoped will be cultivated domesti- farms — previously owned by the state others, has progressively increased the cally to reduce the need for food im- — into autonomous cooperatives, volume of imports of foodstuffs year by ports. created a ministry of small and medi- year and buys rice, maize, beans, etc. Providing autonomy to the district um-si/ed business, reinstated and reg- from the United States, Asia, and agro-pastoral farms should enable the ulated private business, and started a Kurope that it should be able to produce workers and peasants to take on in- chamber of commerce. A new ministry in quantities greater than its needs." creased responsibilities in modernizing of economic and financial affairs was Guinea is a synthesis of all the agricultural production. "Our choice," created. ecological zones in West Africa, a situ- says Toure, "is to make the people the These structures should facilitate the ation that has provided the country with essential architects of agricultural de- efforts toward national economic de- the potential of producing the whole velopment, the state playing only a velopment, the starting signal for which range of agricultural products that can training and organizing role." was given at the November 1983 party be cultivated in the subregion— millet, The development of mineral re- congress. The slogan "Ready for Pro- sorghum, rice, manioc, maize, yams, sources should also provide a boost to duction, Demanded by the Revolu- oil palm, sugarcane, vegetables, and agricultural development. Minerals tion," has replaced "Ready lor the fruits. Even if drought has afflicted the represent the one area most likely to Revolution." To this end, it has been region, there is still water in abundance earn Guinea the foreign exchange it re- decided to give foreign exchange in Guinea; however, only 10 percent of quires to equip itself with the scientific quotas to those producing goods lor ex- the land suitable for agriculture is cur- and technological advances required to port; to promote the development of rently under cultivation. Grazing land modernize agricultural production. agro-industrial units in the interior, for cattle is also abundant. The Guinean president recently out- either by domestic interests or in con- Certainly the scientific, technical. lined the strategy his government is junction with foreign investors, par- and agricultural expertise and infra- pursuing: "We can assign our second ticularly for the production of fruit, structure, as well as financial re- priority to... exchanging under the vegetables, industrial crops, and edible sources, are lacking, "but we cannot most favorable terms some of our raw oils, or any other crop that generates lack the intelligence to exploit our own materials, such as bauxite and iron ore, foreign exchange: and to undertake natural resources. . . and a country for strong currency. This foreign ex- steps that would enable Guinea to ob- cannot objectively rely upon the will of change should enable us to import tain the finance necessary to construct other countries to live decently and with anything hindering us from imple- hydroelectric facilities and to undertake dignity," says Toure. As a result, the menting our development programs in rural electrification. The energy policy government has decided that beginning the priority sectors. It is evident that at will be oriented toward the construction in December 1984, foodstuffs will no this time no other export can procure for of microgenerators, with an emphasis longer be imported for the urban popu- us as much foreign exchange as mineral on renewable energy. lation. products. Let us say that in using our The economic development strategy To achieve this end, the government mineral resources inthis first phase, our gives first priority to agriculture, and is counting on technicians. Since 1975, development strategy aims at the pro- second to the mining sector. It is 75 percent of high school graduates gressive reduction of exports of miner- paradoxical that despite its immense have specialized in agronomy and ani- als or basic industrial products, in potential in animal husbandry and ag- mal husbandry. Several agricultural re- favor of agricultural production.

Bauxite loading plant in Conakry: Guinea may possess two-thirds of the world's bauxite reserves

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 45 "We can consider ourselves favored tons of bauxite reserves containing a surveys have led the government to by nature because we have at our dis- minimum of 40 percent aluminum, and negotiate several exploitation contracts posal a varied range of mineral prod- in some cases, 66 percent, Guinea in the uranium, diamond, and gold ucts, which we will be able to process holds two-thirds of the world's re- sectors, on a joint venture basis, al- right here before their export. We are serves. In addition, there are more than though the partners have nol yet been limited not by the quantity of our re- 15 billion tons of iron ore. revealed. serves, but solely by external demand, A recent mining survey completed These projects will thus be added to which regulates the long-term pur- after aerial prospecting done in the the joint companies already in existence chasing contracts of our partners." period 1979-81 showed the existence of — the Guinea Bauxite Company and To illustrate the point, Toure cited 10 uranium deposits; 10 diamond de- Friguia, an aluminum production com- bauxite, noting that Guinea contains a posits; five gold; three chrome, cobalt, pany. While strengthening these com- quantity sufficient to supply all the and platinum; one lead and zinc; and panies as well as the national mining aluminum factories now operating in one ilmenite and rutile. Three other company, the Kindia Bauxite Office, the world for more than 300 years. Re- uranium deposits have been discovered the government has also started to move search indicates that with 18 billion since January 1983. The results of these forward with earlier projects — the Guinea Iron Mine Company for the Exploitation of the Nimba Mountains (Mifergui-Nimba), and the Guinea Hydrocarbon Company. Negotiations have begun with the World Bank, the European Economic Community, and other partners to put together the financing for the iron-mining project. Results from prospecting for hydro- carbons are considered very positive. According to authorities, Guinea is aware that its territorial waters possess great potential in hydrocarbons, and this situation is considered to apply as well on shore, especially in the north- west part of the country. This zone is the site of an exploration project fi- nanced by the World Bank at a cost of $17 million over three years. Other new projects are being developed tor gold, diamonds, uranium, granite, marble, and ornamental stones. The first category of projects when they are completed between 1984 and 1990 will represent more than $1 billion a year in exports and more than $300 million of supplementary revenue for the Guinean treasury. Toure insists, "We have never excluded cooperation with capitalist countries. . .. We have only excluded the type of unjust development that capitalism gives rise to, the exploitation of man by man. In Guinea, we believe that the population today is sufficiently mature politically to avoid and reject this type of development. The socialist option remains more than ever that of the party-state of Guinea." It remains to be seen whether with the arrival of Western capital the presence of the Eastern bloc countries, especially the Bananas packaged for export: Economic development strategy gives lirst priority Soviet Union, will find itself greatly re- to agriculture duced. •

46 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 IN WASHINGTON

Southern Africa: An Issue in '84?

BY JOHN DEST. JORRE

s U.S. politicians jockey for advan- artists' and athletes' boycott of South the United States from supporting A tage this election year, Africa is Africa led by Arthur Ashe and Harry International Monetary Fund (IMF) not one of their major concerns. How- Belafonte was launched. loans to South Africa, was watered ever, African issues, especially those Behind these moves is a discern- down in the Senate, but it retained related to southern Africa, are loom- ible flexing of black electoral power sufficient strength to make U.S. ing larger and encouraging the that has had its most critical impact at backing for such loans more prob- Democratic presidential contenders, the local level, but is also starting to lematical in the future. the Reagan administration, and indi- influence decisions on Capitol Hill. The fate of the House package will vidual congressmen and senators to The Democratic contenders for the be decided by the Senate which, at Check their records and clarify their presidency have already shifted to the the time of writing, had not yet dealt policy positions. left on South Africa and Jesse Jack- with the bills. No one on Capitol Hill South Africa is recognized by all son's decision to join the race has was betting on what would happen, these actors as the most important given increased prominence to an but the consensus was that while and controversial issue, and several issue that is high on most politicized some of the legislation would be recent developments on the domestic blacks' foreign policy agenda. emasculated or thrown out, some front have helped to locus their atten- Two factors appear to have deto- would go through, opening the door tion. nated this burst of activity: first, the for further sanctions and sending sig- In Washington, an unprecedented situation in South Africa itself where nals to South Africa diametrically op- number of bills seeking to curb U.S. the government's reforms are widely posed to the ones that have been economic ties with South Africa seen as cosmetic rather than funda- flashing from Foggy Bottom and the passed through the House of Repre- mental; and second, the Reagan ad- White House during the last three sentatives late last year. Outside the ministration's policy of "constructive years. capital, the antiapartheid campaign engagement" that has encouraged The only other time Congress put a seems to have picked up fresh mo- closer official links with Pretoria but crimp on business with South Africa mentum. There has been a spurt of so far has failed to produce a solution was when the Evans Amendment was divestment measures at state and city to the intractable Namibian problem. passed in 1978 banning Export-Im- level involving the sale of millions of The House of Representatives has port Bank loan guarantees to U.S. dollars of stock in U.S. companies passed bills that ban new U.S. corpo- companies trading with South Africa doing business in South Africa and, in rate investment in South Africa, make whose affiliates in the Republic did September 1983, a new nationwide the Sullivan fair employment code not abide by the Sullivan Code. Much mandatory, end commercial bank of the legislation has been around for loans to Pretoria, prohibit the impor- some time, beached in committee or tation of Krugerrand gold coins, summarily dispatched on the House reinstate the Carter administration's floor. But then, in late 1983, it all John de St. Jorre, the author of A House export controls on goods to the South sailed through, picking up a surprising Divided: South Africa's Uncertain Future, is a senior associate at the Carnegie En- African military and police, and ex- amount of conservative support. dowment for International Peace in pand nuclear and nonproliferation ex- What does it mean? Is it, as one Washington. port controls to include parts and Republican senator's aide put it, a technology transfers. mere "blip on the screen"? Or is it, in Another measure, designed to stop the words of Randall Robinson, exec-

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 47 utive director of TransAfrica, the Afri- Bibliographic Center, which monitors South Africa got its act together — can and Caribbean lobby group, "a African developments and U.S. pol- U.S. companies have spent $75 mil- quantum leap"? icy. lion on black education, training, and Everyone seemed surprised at the On Capitol Hill, there is a feeling of social welfare since 1977 — we have support shown for the legislation — frustration. Many legislators heeded legislation that negates that effort." the conservatives, the liberals, the the State Department's pleas for pa- "U.S. businessmen in South Af- "neither-nor," the administration, tience while delicate negotiations for rica," says James Symington, a even the sponsors of the bills them- the independence of Namibia were former congressman whose law firm selves — Congressmen William Gray being pursued. Now, with the Namib- represent:; the South African em- (D-Pa.), Stephen Solarz (D-N.Y.), ian issue stalled, the situation in bassy here, "are concerned about the Howard Berman (D-Calif.), and How- southern Africa more violent and vol- mood and criticism in the United ard Wolpe (D-Mich.). The principal atile than ever, and no real progress States. They feel abandoned by the reason, however, is not hard to find. toward fundamental change in South U.S. when they thought they were Opposing apartheid in U.S. domestic Africa itself apparent, those who put doing something right in terms of their politics has attained the status of their trust in the administration feel labor practices." motherhood. Few people in public life disillusioned. It is time, many of them Businessmen also point out that want to be seen supporting, even in a say, to send a "signal" to Pretoria that there will almost certainly be difficul- tepid way, South Africa's racial sys- not all Americans believe in the ad- ties with the South African govern- tem. ministration's policy or share its op- ment over monitoring the Sullivan This is not just a perception preva- timism. Code if it becomes law. "South Africa lent in Washington, but something The House legislation is strongly could make it difficult for U.S. firms to that is beginning to seep up from the opposed by the State Department, the do things publicly that they can now grass roots. In an election year, con- business community, and, of course, do privately," said a senior executive gressmen want to set their voting re- by the South African government. of a large firm active in the Republic. cord on South Africa straight. There is Frank Wisner, deputy assistant sec- Another concern is the effect of the little to be gained in most places from retary for African affairs, calls it "ir- no-new-investment bill on black being pro-South African, so the responsible." He stressed that South Africans who might benefit from choice is made easier. And there is no monitoring a mandatory Sullivan the additional jobs that would result doubt that the growing strength of the Code will impose a heavy burden on from a larger U.S. corporate pres- black vote and the activities of anti- the department for which it is not ence. "These bills are not going to apartheid groups at state and city equipped. The IMF amendment, he bring the South African government levels have helped to crystallize many says, has created a dangerous pre- down," says Symington, "but they will politicians' attitudes. cedent by politicizing the Fund, a pre- hurt a lot of people over there." An important dynamic is the sense cedent that could hurt black African The measure Pretoria seems to that the administration is not getting countries not intended as targets by fear most is the ban on the booming anywhere with its constructive en- the drafters of the measure. Krugerrand. Worldwide sales of the gagement strategy, a policy that has American businessmen argue that one-ounce gold coin reached $1.5 bil- produced a marked "tilt" toward Pre- making the Sullivan Code mandatory lion last year, outstripping earnings toria. will cut across what they are doing from South Africa's diamond and coal "Although it condemns apartheid, voluntarily in South Africa because exports. The United States is by far the administration has become asso- the intervention of the U.S. bureau- the largest market, accounting for ciated with the South African govern- cracy will stifle the companies' own roughly half the total sales. ment in many peoples' minds," says initiatives. "It's ironic," said one, "that The critics of the legislation suggest Dan Matthews, director of the African just as the U.S. corporate presence in that a better way of expressing con- gressional disapproval of South Africa would be to pass a "sense of the Congress" resolution and vote more financial aid for black education and Today's Research Brings social welfare programs in South Af- rica. But there seems little doubt that Tomorrow's Cures the architects of the legislation have Sl. Juric Children's Restart h Hospital is a signals and symbols uppermost in I national resource nut just for today, but for tomorrow. Children (dine (u Si. [ude to receive their minds. the best available caie. whether lor leukemia, "The legislation is aimed at disas- other childhood tamers, or one of (he rare sociating the United States from the i hiltlhoot! diseases being Mtidied here. South African government, showing St. Jude Hospital continues its search so tomor- niws children can live. Si. jude offers hope to all that Americans are not satisfied with children, everywhere, regardless of race, religion constructive engagement, and care or financial condition. about apartheid," says Howard Please send your lax-deductible (heck or request for information to St. Jude. Wolpe, chairman of the House Sub- 5()r> N. Parkway, Box 3704, Memphis, IN 38103. committee on Africa. "We would pre- fer the administration to put the pres- nanny Thomas, Founder sure on, but since it's not doing so, ST. JVDE CHILDREN'S RESEARCH HOSPITAL Congress has to fill the gap," he con-

48 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 J tinued. "But the administration can change, but the consensus appears Turning to the imposition of com- make use of the legislation with the to be that "something is happening," prehensive UN sanctions against South African government by playing that apartheid is beginning to play in South Africa as a means of disman- the good guy and saying: 'Look, if you Peoria where, incidentally, there is a tling apartheid and achieving don't reform, you'll get more of this."' group working on divestment. While it Namibia's independence, Cranston Even the opponents of the legisla- may not all add up to a "quantum favors such an action. Glenn advo- tion tend to agree that South Africa is leap," it is certainly more than a "blip cates less sweeping measures that becoming more of an issue in the on the screen." include discouraging new U.S. in- country as a whole, particularly None of this probably much worries vestment in South Africa and warning among blacks. The increase in black President Reagan's advisers who Pretoria that "foot-dragging" on voter registration and the growing may have already written off the black apartheid and Namibia could lead to number of black mayors and elected vote. But what is interesting is that, sanctions "at some time." officials are creating a strong base tor whether a serious black foreign policy Hart considers sanctions "useful if a more effective black foreign policy constituency actually exists or not, they are applied judiciously and constituency. Blacks major concerns the perception that it does and that thoughtfully." To be effective, he are still in the domestic field, but black South Africa stirs it more than any says, they must be coordinated with activist groups and antiapartheid other issue, is undoubtedly having a other concerned nations and "par- "rainbow" coalitions have begun to considerable impact on individual ticularly with those people we want to capitalize on the new black power that politicians, including the Democratic help in South Africa." Hollings sup- has emerged in a number of states presidential contenders. The House ports sanctions because, although and cities. debates on the anti-South Africa they are not a "desirable policy of first The key national organizations are legislation revealed a number of con- choice . . . the present situation TransAfrica and the Washington Of- servative congressmen — Repub- leaves us with few alternatives." fice on Africa here in DC, and the licans and Democrats — showing a Mondale's view is similar to Hart's — American Committee on Africa in New new sensitivity about the issue, en- he would be prepared to use sanc- York. Their efforts are largely con- couraged in many cases by the pres- tions in cooperation with other na- centrated on rallying support for ence of a sizable block of black voters tions, but adds that the U.S. should be anti-South African measures in Con- back home. ready to use a range of unilateral gress, divestment by states, city col- Before looking at the individual measures such as "restrictions in the leges, and other public institutions of positions of the candidates, it is worth area of exports, nuclear materials, stock held in U.S. corporations doing sounding a note of caution. In a series and air traffic." business in South Africa, and cultural of question and answer interviews Congressman William Gray's bill and consumer boycotts. with the Democratic aspirants that banning new U.S. investment in The biggest breakthrough in recent appeared in the New York Times re- South Africa received the support of years has been the passage of di- cently, Africa was not once men- all the Democratic candidates, in- vestment bills in several state legis- tioned. But within the African context, cluding Jesse Jackson who had not latures, the most sweeping occurring the candidates seem to be taking declared for the presidency when the in Massachusetts. Twenty-five states policy issues seriously and most of TransAfrica survey was conducted. and 20 major cities have divestment them produced detailed responses to The contenders also lined up behind legislation pending, according to the questions posed by TransAfrica last Congressman Stephen Solarz's American Committee on Africa. The summer, which were published in a three-part amendment to the Export Washington, D.C., City Council has special edition of TransAfrica Forum. Administration Act mandating the already voted to divest municipal On recognizing Angola, Senator Sullivan Code, banning the sale of pension funds worth $60 million of Alan Cranston of California declares Krugerrands, and barring new bank shares in 31 companies, but the mea- he would "move promptly" toward loans to the South African govern- sure has to go to Congress for ap- recognition. "Normalizing relations ment. proval. with Angola is probably long over- In sum, the Democratic hopefuls Last September, Arthur Ashe and due," says Senator John Glenn of not only strongly oppose the adminis- Harry Belafonte, supported by 60 Ohio. "It is a step I would be willing to tration's policy of constructive en- show business and sports per- take." Senator Gary Hart of Colorado gagement, which shows no signs of sonalities, launched the first nation- believes that diplomatic relations being modified as the election year wide campaign to dissuade American between the United States and An- progresses, but have emerged with a artists and athletes from performing in gola could be "mutually advanta- more radical approach to southern Af- South Africa. The boycott, which is geous." rica than that adopted by the Carter coordinated by TransAfrica, has high Senator Ernest Hollings of South administration. Even allowing lor visibility, particularly among blacks, Carolina was the only dissenter election rhetoric, this suggests that and has a secondary goal of educat- among this group, declaring that he there is indeed something stirring out ing and politicizing the black commu- would oppose normalization as long there. Jesse Jackson, buoyed by his nity on the apartheid issue. as Cuban troops remain in Angola. first major foreign policy foray in the Conventional wisdom has always Former Vice-President Walter Mon- Middle East and whose own views on had it that American blacks are not dale chose a middle path. "We would South Africa have hardened since he much interested in foreign affairs, in- be willing to sit down and work out an went there four years ago, will no cluding Africa. It is probably too early acceptable basis for relations with doubt help to keep his white oppo- to say whether there has been a sea Angola," he told TransAfrica. nents on the line. •

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 49 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS The Search for a Growth Strategy for Africa

BY CAROL LANCASTER

hile specialists argue on the na- investment, financed imports of con- Third, penetrating foreign markets W ture of the development process, sumer and capital goods. Growth was proved to be a serious obstacle. Even there is hardly any disagreement that at to be achieved through establishing where African products were competi- the heart of development there must be new industries such as textiles, pro- tive, barriers to their entry frequently sustainable growth in national produc- cessed foodstuffs, beer, matches, or limited access to foreign markets. De- tion and income. A strategy for cement to meet the domestic demand. veloped countries sought to protect achieving this goal remains the funda- Investment in these industries was en- their markets from some of the light mental development challenge facing couraged through the imposition of manufactures — such as textiles and many African countries: What can be tariffs or quotas to keep out competitive footwear — in which Africa could po- produced economically and sold where goods from abroad. tentially compete. And African gov- demand is strong and returns are suffi- It is now generally acknowledged in ernments themselves frequently cient to encourage continuing invest- Africa and elsewhere that the strategy excluded light manufactures from ment and, ultimately, a general expan- of industrialization through import sub- neighboring countries as they attemp- sion in production and income? For stitution failed to promote sustainable ted to establish these same industries at much of the continent today, there is no growth. The markets that import-sub- home. easy answer to this question. stituting industries were intending to Not only did import substitution fail African countries gained their inde- serve were often very small. Even as a development strategy, it may have pendence largely as small, poor today, 27 countries each have a popu- actually set development back through economies, mainly producing and ex- lation of less than six million and much its impact on agriculture. The emphasis porting primary products — agricul- of that population is only barely in the on industrialization led to a neglect of tural commodities and minerals. The money economy. agricultural development and relatively Ivory Coast and Ghana, for example, However, production need not be little investment was made in this sec- still rely heavily on the export of cocoa. only for the national market. Man- tor, where the majority of Africans earn Zaire and Zambia depend on the export ufacturers can expand their output and their living. With the slow expansion of of copper. Mauritius earns most of its sales through exporting. That this did agricultural production and income, the foreign exchange from the export of not happen in Africa was the result of a vast majority of the population had a sugar, and Sudan, from cotton. Pro- number of factors. First, the protection limited demand for the commodities ceeds from these exports, plus aid and provided to new industries eliminated that could be produced by domestic in- any commercial borrowing or foreign low-cost competition from abroad. dustries. Moreover, policies designed Without such competition and often to encourage industrialization actually with monopoly access to home mar- discouraged increases in agricultural kets, new producers lacked the incen- production. Many governments sought tive to lower costs and increase quality, to maintain low food prices in order to Carol Lancaster is director of African keep the urban cost of living and wage studies at Georgetown University. She which would allow them to compete in has previously worked in the U.S. gov- export markets. Second, labor costs demands low. Low wages would hold ernment in the Office of Management and were relatively high in many countries down the costs of industrial production. Budget, in the Senate and House of Rep- resentatives, and has served as a deputy (African economies were not labor- However, low food prices also discour- assistant secretary of state in the Bureau surplus economies like those typical of aged agricultural producers from ex- of African Affairs (1980-81), responsible Asia) and the productivity of labor was panding production and contributed to for U.S. economic relations with Africa. She has recently published articles on Af- low due to the generally unskilled na- the need by African countries to import rican economic problems and prospects in ture of the labor force. Manufacturing increasing amounts of food to feed their Current History, Foreign Affairs, and Af- populations. At independence, Africa rica Notes. wages in Zambia, for instance, have remained at roughly three times the was nearly self-sufficient in the pro- level of such wages in India or the duction of grains. In 1981, imports of Philippines. grain had risen to 24 million tons and

50 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 were expected to continue to increase The Lagos Plan of Action contains ent tack. It barely mentions regional sharply in the future. hundreds of recommendations for economic cooperation. Rather, it rec- Rather than reducing the import bill change in African economic policies, ommends that African governments for manufactured products, in many in- but does no more than exhort govern- expand their exports, increasing their stances import-substitution policies ments to adopt these changes. The ap- foreign exchange earnings and permit- have increased that bill, making con- proach to growth in the Lagos Plan is ting them to import needed consumer tinued production highly dependent on import substitution writ large for the and capital goods from the most eco- the availability of foreign exchange to whole continent; rather than relying on nomical source. Protection of domestic buy needed raw materials and spare the world market for essential imports industries would be limited or elimi- parts. The steel plant in Ajaokuta, and the exports to pay for them, African nated and investment would be directed Nigeria, for example, will have to im- governments are advised to establish towards expanding those exports that port all of its coke and some of its iron, their own industries to meet their needs. African countries can produce and sell making Nigerian steel probably the They would not attempt to do this indi- competitively. Thus, rather than with- most expensive in the world. And when vidually as in the past, but on a drawing from the world market as im- foreign exchange shortages become se- cooperative basis regionally and, ulti- plied by the approach recommended in vere, as at the present time in much of mately, throughout the continent. Eco- the Lagos Plan, the Berg Report advises Africa, imports essential for continuing nomic union among African countries African countries to increase their re- production are often cut back, resulting would ensure that a wide range of liance on that market. in a reduction or, in some cases, a com- natural and human resources were The other major difference between plete stoppage in production. Factories available to support development and the Lagos Plan and the Berg Report is in Ghana or Sudan typically operate at that markets would be big enough to the emphasis in the latter on the need for one-third or less of capacity. sustain large-scale production, not only policy reform and the implicit link be- The growing economic crisis facing in light industries, but ultimately in in- tween policy reform and increased many African countries has provoked a termediate and heavy industries as levels of economic assistance for Af- critical examination in Africa and well, such as chemicals or transport rica. The Berg Report recognizes that abroad of existing growth policies and a machinery. New industries would be while it is necessary, economic policy search for more promising alternatives. financed in part through a "massive reform can be difficult and politically Two approaches have been debated by transfer'" of" foreign resources. risky to African governments. Sub- African and foreign observers: (1) the The Berg Report takes quite a differ- stantially increased levels of foreign as- growth strategy contained in the Lagos Plan of Action, adopted by the African heads of state at the Organization of African Unity meeting in Lagos in 1980; and (2) the set of proposals in the World Bank's report. Accelerated De- velopment in Sub-Saharan Africa (also known as the "Berg Report" after its principal author, Elliot Berg), pub- lished in 1981. Both of these approaches recognized that African economic policies would have to change if sustainable growth was to take place. For example, ag- riculture could no longer be neglected, prices for farmers would have to be raised to remunerative levels, and in- vestment increased. Exchange rates would have to be adjusted to levels more in line with market equilibrium. Quasi-governmental institutions or parastatals, which play such a large role in African economies, would have to become more efficient or be restricted or eliminated. However, the Lagos Plan and the Berg Report differed in two key areas: how policy reform was to take place, and what strategy African governments should adopt to promote growth. Producing tires in Kenya: Import substitution may have set development back

AFRICA REPORT - March-April 1984 51 sistance would "lubricate the process disagreements between Kenya and The Berg Report has different of change" by softening the impact of Tanzania on the distribution of benefits shortcomings. Its recommendations policy reform on those groups ad- from union and on basic differences in that African countries expand their ex- versely affected. economic and political philosophies ports as a means of recovery and growth Both of these approaches have seri- among the members. The Economic would make sense if world markets for ous shortcomings as growth strategies Community of West African States, their traditional exports were strong or for much of Africa today. The Lagos established in 1972 by 16countries, has stable. In many cases, however, they Plan of Action touches on an extremely yet to achieve any significant progress are neither. Prices of commodities such important issue confronting many Afri- towards economic union. Other such as coffee and cocoa are at the lowest can countries: the very limited growth arrangements, tor example, the Prefer- real levels since World War II and are options for countries that are small, re- ential Trade Area among a group of 12 not expected to recover before 1990. source poor, often landlocked, and east and southern African states, re- Moreover, demand for many of these lacking in human and physical infra- main little more than hopes. Simply goods is inelastic — it does not rise structure. Economic cooperation is an put, the potential long-term economic proportionately with falling prices. obvious alternative. But it is one that gains from such unions have not been Thus, if all producing countries, or has been tried in many parts of Africa seen by political leaders as sufficient to even a few significant producers, ex- and, with few exceptions, has failed. offset the immediate political and eco- panded their exports of these com- The East African Common Market. nomic costs of union. On these modities, supplies could increase sub- seen by many in the early years after in- grounds, Africans and foreign observ- stantially, world demand would in- dependence as a promising example of ers alike are entitled to ask whether the crease only a little if at all, and prices effective economic cooperation on the growth strategy put forth in the Lagos would fall even further. At best, ex- continent, broke down in 1977 over Plan bears any relationship to reality. porters of these commodities must hope for a frost in Brazil or a political up- heaval in a major producing country to unsettle markets and drive up prices. Markets for African minerals — copper, cobalt, diamonds, uranium, and potash — are also depressed. World demand for these commodities tends to be a derived demand, depen- dent not so much on price, at least in the short run, as on general economic con- ditions in developed countries. Supply is often inelastic in the short term, thus leading to highly variable prices when demand suddenly surges or drops (e.g., as a result of a war scare or recession). The curreni weaknesses and continued instabilities in these markets make them uncertain sources of foreign exchange for governments relying on them to fi- nance consumer and capital goods im- ports. A second shortcoming in the Berg Report relates to the recommendation to African governments for policy re- form, coupled with an appeal to donor governments to double their assistance to Africa. It appears in retrospect that the difficulties of achieving either meaningful policy reform or an in- crease in aid were greatly underesti- mated. Indeed, some African govern- ments have initiated policy change. In a number of countries, agricultural prices have been increased, the size and role of government corporations have been Africa's food imports: 24 million tons a year and rising reduced, and currencies have been de-

52 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 valued. Yet governments have moved achieve sustainable growth? Africans in Africa with its aid. Sustainable slowly in the face of potential or real must diversify their exports of primary growth must ultimately be achieved by political opposition to such changes, products and invest in the export of pro- Africans themselves through their own and in some countries reforms have cessed and manufactured goods. Here, efforts and policies — and luck with been eroded by lack of persistence or they confront difficult challenges. They weather and the international economy. follow-through. Just one indication of must find and penetrate export markets. But the United States, by reducing its the problems of implementing and With the reduction or elimination of assistance now, could make the maintaining policy reforms is the dif- tariffs on imports from poorer devel- achievement of recovery and growth ficulties African counlries have had in oping countries by the United States more difficult and prolonged. fulfilling the conditions of the Interna- and the European Economic Commu- Problems of African growth suggest tional Monetary Fund programs nity (through the Generalized System a second point regarding U.S. aid to the throughout the continent. At one point of Preferences and the Lome Agree- region. During the past decade, U.S. in 1982, the IMF had cut off programs ment, respectively), the possibilities of aid generally has had a strong focus on to seven African countries for their fail- finding markets have improved. How- equity, that is, on ensuring that the ben- ure to fulfill the conditions of the loans. ever, should African countries become efits of growth are enjoyed by the poor In regard to donor assistance, the significant exporters of goods that through concentrating on projects pro- prospects for the foreseeable future are threaten domestic producers in the U.S. viding tor basic human needs, such as for a decline rather than a doubling in or Europe, their access to these markets health care or primary education. This the real value of such assistance. De- could be restricted. is an understandable approach, but with spite the World Bank's commitment to Another and perhaps more difficult Africa's current problems, a questiona- increase the proportion of its soft loans challenge is finding the investment — ble one. For without sustainable long- from the International Development domestic or foreign —- that will finance term growth, African countries will Association (IDA) to Africa, the the establishment of processing or have few benefits to distribute to any- amount of these loans will fall with the manufacturing industries for export. one. American aid needs to be better reduction in the United States' con- African countries are limited by their targeted on establishing the precon- tribution in the current replenishment of own inadequate physical and human ditions for growth: improvement, IDA. Due to the relatively low priority infrastructure, their relatively high maintenance, and expansion of infra- Afncan problems have in the totality of wages, and many governmental structure; development and dissemina- U.S. foreign policy, to federal budget policies and practices that discourage tion of economically viable technical stringencies generally, and to the spe- such investment — red tape, bureau- improvements for African agriculture; cial reluctance of Congress to pass cratic inertia, price controls, indigeni- expansion of education so that there foreign aid bills in an election year, zation requirements, sudden changes in will be an adequate pool of vocationally prospects are not bright that a decline in key policies and personnel, and cor- and professionally trained Africans to U.S. contributions to IDA will be offset ruption — all exacerbated throughout support private- and public-sector in- by substantial increases in U.S. bilat- the continent by budgetary and foreign vestments; and policy reform so that eral aid to Africa, which has risen only exchange restrictions arising out of potential domestic and foreign inves- marginally in the past few years. (The current economic problems. There are tors (including small farmers) will be recent proposal for a $500 million U.S. safer, easier, and often more profitable encouraged to initiate or expand pro- bilateral initiative for Africa reflects places to invest money, for both Afri- duction. What must be done to establish good intentions but is unlikely to be- cans and foreigners. the preconditions for growth will differ come a reality without continuous pres- What are the implications of these from country to country. And none is sure over several years on a reluctant problems for U.S. policies toward Af- likely to be easily or quickly achieved. Congress and the Office of Manage- rica? First, it is tragic that now, at a time The United States must be flexible ment and Budget. It remains to be seen when much of Africa most needs eco- enough to tailor its aid to the needs of whether this will occur. At any rate, the nomic assistance, the United States has specific countries. initiative includes ony $75 million for reduced its contribution to IDA, the Prospects for African recovery and 1985.) major and possibly most effective growth are not bright at present. But the Assistance to Africa from OPEC source of development assistance to current economic malaise through (Organization of Petroleum Exporting many African countries. As a result, much of the continent may have had Countries) governments has also fallen U.S. policy has forced down resource one beneficial effect. Africans them- with the decline in the real price of oil flows to Africa, not simply by the selves are deeply concerned about their and the disappearance of foreign ex- amount of decrease in the U.S. con- economic problems, and have given change surpluses in major producing tribution to IDA, but by three times that fresh attention to how they can achieve countries. Aid from France, West amount, since every U.S. dollar is sustainable growth. In a number of Germany, and Italy has risen somewhat matched by $3 from other donors who countries, governments have begun to in recent years, but in amounts that can tend to follow the U.S. lead in setting attempt to deal with current problems. hardly be described as substantial. their contribution levels. The U.S. can- What kind of help will they have from So what is to be done if Africa is to not buy economic recovery and growth the rest of the world? •

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 53 AT THE UNITED NATIONS

Africa and the U.S. at Odds

BY MONIQUE RUBENS

s the 1983 session of the United linking Cuban troop withdrawal from rival giants and their supporters are A Nations Genera! Assembly drew Angola to Namibian independence representatives of a group allied with to a close the week before Christmas, and "constructive engagement" with neither — the 101-nation nonaligned its results left little cause for holiday South Africa isolated it at the UN and movement. In 1983, there were eight cheer. UN Secretary-General Javier continued to hamper progress on nonaligned delegations among the Perez de Cuellar called 1983 "a tur- southern African issues. council's nonpermanent members, bulent year marked by much violence To an uncommon degree, the UN's making the bloc's support crucial for and tragedy," and warned that "cur- two principal arenas of political activ- achieving the minimum nine votes re- rent developments are ominous." Al- ity — the General Assembly (GA) and quired to adopt a resolution in the ab- though most observers agreed that the Security Council — operated in sence of a veto. U.S.-Soviet tension did not cloud the tandem last year. The 158-member Within the numerically dominant assembly's work as much as had assembly is the UN forum in which nonaligned movement, Africans rep- been anticipated, American policies world leaders express their views on resent the UN's largest regional continued at times to set the United international issues through group. In the Security Council, they States apart at the UN, reinforcing its speeches and the presentation of exercise their influence through Af- self-image as a major, but often lone, resolutions. Resolutions adopted by rica's three nonpermanent represen- fighter at the international organiza- the veto-free assembly are purely re- tatives — last year, Togo, Zaire, and tion. commendatory. Zimbabwe. In the General Assembly, Under President Reagan's admin- In contrast, those adopted in the they can bring their influence to bear istration, UN diplomacy took a back 15-member Security Council, whose directly through the weight of the seat to economic and military might function is to maintain international bloc's 50 member states. as a tool of American foreign policy. peace and security, are legally bind- For African nations, UN member- Its political orientation, typified by a ing on governments. However, unlike ship remains an important symbol of global vision of perceived Soviet those in the General Assembly, the national independence and identity. threats and a staunch determination Security Council resolutions are sub- Although subject to external voting to preserve the American ideals of a ject to the veto power held by the five pressures, they are sensitive to their free-market economy and political permanent members — the United roles as their region's representa- liberties, came to the forefront at the States, the Soviet Union, Britain, tives, particularly when they sit on the UN in 1983 in such issues as the France, and China. Yet, provided that Security Council. The point is illus- downing of the South Korean airliner, it has otherwise broad support, even a trated by the role Zimbabwe played in the Grenada invasion, the Gandhi vetoed resolution — like a General two surprise events that dominated mini-summit, and global negotiations. Assembly recommendation —can UN attention last year — the Soviet And the administrations policies of serve to keep the international con- downing of the Korean jetliner, and science alive to issues that might the American move into Grenada. otherwise die from underexposure. In the case of the Korean incident, In Security Council deliberations, the United States was able to muster the United States wields great influ- only the bare nine-vote minimum, A freelance writer specializing in African ence not only as a permanent which — had the Russians and Poles affairs, Monique Rubens covers African member with the right of veto but as a not exercised their veto — would have issues at the United Nations and in New superpower of virtually unchallenged won adoption of a Security Council York. She is a frequent contributor to West economic and political strength. Its resolution stressing the need for a Africa magazine. traditional adversary at the council "full and adequate explanation'' of the table is the Soviet Union. Between the Soviet action. Abstentions by Zim-

54 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 babwe, China, Nicaragua, and with the Americans. "Relative to our veloping countries, whose aims origi- Guyana further weakened U.S. dip- strength in the world, our position in nally included sweeping structural lomatic efforts to condemn the the UN is weak indeed," said Kirkpat- changes in the world's economic re- U.S.S.R. rick, although she added that it had lations and financial institutions. But The Harare delegation's abstention improved "and will continue" to do so. progress on global negotiations has was especially galling to the Reagan UN Secretary-General Perez de been stymied by developed countries, administration, which had applied Cuellar and last year's GA president, which, led by the United States, re- heavy pressure on Zimbabwe Prime Jorge Illueca of Panama, were con- fuse to negotiate on any issue that Minister Robert Mugabe, then in siderably bleaker in their assess- might threaten their economic power. Washington, to vote in favor. But ments of the session. "One of the Referring to the informal discus- Mugabe maintained that Zimbabwe's most dangerous developments of the sions on the subject held during the abstention was in line with the views past year has been the impairment of GA sessions, Ugandan Ambassador of other southern African nations that communications between the major Olara Otunnu remarked, "The U.S. Zimbabwe represented on the coun- powers," said Perez de Cuellar. Both has not rejected global negotiations, cil. bemoaned the lack of progress on but it has not been particularly forth- Zimbabwe also stood apart from the disarmament. The secretary-general coming either." Alan Keyes, U.S. am- U.S. on the Grenada issue. It voted said nuclear disarmament would be bassador to the UN Economic and for the Security Council resolution, resolved only by the two major pow- Social Council, maintained that it was which demanded the "immediate ers' coming to the conference table, not the U.S. place to push the process withdrawal of the foreign troops" and, while Illueca suggested a Security forward. Congressman Stephen Sol- more importantly, co-sponsored a Council heads-of-state summit to im- arz (D-N.Y.), a U.S. representative to similar GA resolution, which criticized prove communication. the 38th session, suggested that the "the armed intervention." Partly in re- Perez de Cuellar listed the Middle U.S. should be "more willing to di- sponse, and reflecting its willingness East, Namibia, Cyprus, Central rectly engage" the Third World on to use American economic power as a America, the Iran/Iraq war, Afghanis- these issues, although he stressed he stick, the Reagan administration cut tan, Kampuchea, violations of human was speaking in his capacity as U.S. aid to Zimbabwe from $75 million rights, and the world economic crisis congressman, not as member of the to $40 million. as areas that continue to threaten American UN delegation. The image of the United States as a international stability. The UN lead- At the end of the session, Illueca combatant in the UN arena fighting to ers' assessments of this session's announced that progress had been preserve its positions was furthered achievements also represented exer- made in the informal discussions, by its UN ambassador, Jeane Kirkpat- cises in damage control. That which would continue into the new rick, who in summing up the GA ses- everyone was still talking about the year. Although no "specific commit- sion said the U.S. policies were "rea- trouble spots and that a dialogue was ments" were made, "a climate of sonably well defended " and declared maintained was for both UN officials trust" had been established, he said. she was "satisfied" with the sessions some measure of success for this Despite this cautious optimism, how- results. But those successes she year's GA. ever, the actual launching of the ne- highlighted to prove her case were East-West polarization, which, ac- gotiations still appears to be a long examples of damage control or pre- cording to the Third World, often way off. vention and only heightened the feel- eclipses their concerns at the UN, led Debates on southern African issues ing of a United States at bay from its Indira Gandhi, India's prime minister during the 38th session provided in- UN colleagues. and current chairman of the non- sights into the seemingly unbridge- Attempts to put the question of aligned, to invite world leaders to New able gulf that separates the United Puerto Rico on the agenda and to York for discussions during the GA States from the Third World at the UN. oust Israel from the GA failed, she session. Described as a mini-summit, The Reagan administration's insis- noted. She was equally "pleased" the event attracted 30 heads of state tence on linking Cuban troop with- that moves to abolish the treaty gov- for two days of informal talks. The drawals from Angola to Namibian in- erning Antarctica and the Western turnout was disappointing and dependence, and its policy of "con- Sahara problem did not become marked by the conspicuous absence structive engagement" with Pretoria, "polarized" issues. Nor, she said, did of President Reagan, who took the continued to isolate it and blocked the session turn out to be "a theater opportunity in his speech before the movement on these issues during the for East-West confrontation." Her GA to carp at the Soviets and to chide session. evaluations gave further weight to a the nonaligned. Not all its members, Africans first succeeded in switch- sense of an American siege mentality he said, "have shared the founders' ing the focus of the stalled Namibia at the UN, which stems, explained a commitment of genuine nonalign- negotiations away from the five-na- nonaligned diplomat, from the Ameri- ment." tion Western Contact Group and back can perception that it "lacks friends" But since Gandhi took over as head to the UN during a May 1983 Security in the organization. He pointed out of the movement, most observers Council meeting. Perez de Cuellar, that in any resolution before the UN have been in agreement that it has after a trip to southern Africa last the Soviet Union can count on the moderated some of its previously stri- summer, concluded, "We have never automatic support of 23 to 25 coun- dent tones and has tried to find solu- before been so close to finality on the tries. U.S. allies were far more likely tions acceptable to the West. This modalities of implementing Resolu- to weigh domestic and regional con- was particularly evident in the issue of tion 435" — the 1978 Security Council siderations before casting their lot global negotiations, called for by de- resolution that created the machinery

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 55 for Namibia's independence — but stance against its neighbors makes it the "mutually beneficial" U.S.- added that South African insistence likely that UN sanctions against South Moroccan relationship does not put on Cuban withdrawal from Angola as Africa will be sought in 1984. Al- the United States "in a position to a precondition for 435's implementa- though the United States would veto dictate outcomes," U.S. support for tion "makes it impossible to launch sanctions, an informed source hinted Rabat remains an important factor in the United Nations plan." that Britain may abstain, leaving the Western Sahara equation. Consistently striving for moderation Washington further isolated in its Lack of policy planning to support and unanimous resolutions to make a southern African policy. Asked about its strategic aims, a tendency to shore stronger political case, the Africans, the purpose of pushing for sanctions up selected African allies with military backed by the nonaligned, achieved in the face of a certain U.S. veto, rather than economic aid, and a con- Security Council condemnation of the SWAPO's UN representative, Theo- centration on the Namibian morass U.S./South African concept of linkage Ben Gurirab, retorted, "We're making while missing opportunities to de- in a resolution adopted in October. a political case." velop relationships elsewhere on the The final vote was 14 in favor, despite The lack of progress toward peace continent appear to be the hallmarks efforts by American Assistant Secre- in southern Africa was matched by a of this administration's Africa policies. tary of State for African Affairs Ches- stalemate in the Western Sahara, de- At the UN, America's perceived sup- ter Crocker to obtain assurances of spite a concensus GA resolution that port for South Africa and seeming dis- French and British vetoes. The United reaffirmed the one adopted by the regard for African economic and po- States, not wanting to isolate itself OAU in June 1983, urging Morocco litical concerns has reinforced the further, abstained. and Polisario to undertake negotia- perception of the United States as, at For some time, the Americans and tions for a cease-fire to create condi- best, an aloof, uncomprehending British had been pressuring the South tions necessary for a referendum. superpower. Africans to withdraw their troops from With Algeria, Polisario, and Economic, not military, assistance southern Angola as a means of fur- Morocco all claiming victory for their to Africa is sorely needed, particularly thering progress on Namibia. South positions, Morocco's then Foreign in the regions afflicted by drought. At Africa's acquiescence — a proposal Minister M'hamed Boucetta quickly the end of the General Assembly ses- to disengage its forces for 30 days — pointed out that the UN resolution did sion, Perez de Cuellar drew special came just before Angola brought its not mean Morocco had to sit down attention to Africa's economic woes. complaint against South Africa to the with Polisario leaders. Hopes for a He launched an appeal for aid and in Security Council. Only the U.S. referendum by the OAU December 31 early 1984 visited eight West African abstained on the ensuing council res- deadline vanished when Morocco countries to confer with senior offi- olution, which demanded that South launched a major attack against cials about these problems. Perhaps Africa "unconditionally withdraw" all Polisario forces, who claimed that this is one area where the secretary- its "occupation forces" from Angola. Moroccan escalation was planned in general can achieve some success in Instead, the United States put em- collaboration with Washington. Al- an otherwise gloomy international phasis on the South African offer, though Ambassador Keyes said that scenario. D hailing it as a "major new step." But before anyone had time to clarify the South African terms, Pre- toria's forces launched a major new Moving soon? attack in southern Angola. Within a fortnight, the Angolans returned to the Please let us know. Security Council, warning of a "wor- If you are going to move, please use this form to advise Africa Report of sening military situation" and bringing your new address 30 days in advance. Attach the mailing label (or write in a counterproposal seeking Pretoria's your old address) to enable the Subscription Department to put the change pledge to withdraw its troops from into effect quickly. Many thanks. southern Angola and to begin im- plementation of Resolution 435. The United States, still preferring to high- light the recent South African offer ATTACH MAILING LABEL HERE and annoyed at the resolution's (or write old address) "polemics," abstained along with Britain on the latest council resolu- tion, which was stronger than its pre- decessor and which obliquely refer- red to the possibility of imposing PLEASE PRINT NEW ADDRESS: sanctions against South Africa. But NAME: despite the proposed retreat of South ADDRESS: . - - . African forces from Angola, the CITY STATE ZIP long-term prospects for a resolution of the conflict and for progress on Return to: Namibia's independence remain AFRICA REPORT stalemated over the linkage issue. Transaction Periodicals Consortium, Rutgers University New Brunswick, N.J. 08903 Pretoria's increasingly militaristic

56 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1964 NAMIBIA South Africa's Stakes in the Border War

BY BARRY STREEK

here have been high points of op- Indeed, one of the key figures in the ministers, and National Party members T timism and low points ot little MPC, Dirk Mudge of the Democratic of Parliament in its defense and loreign progress during the prolonged interna- Turnhalle Alliance, said the new affairs committees found that 82.3 per- tional negotiations for peace in Na- grouping would have to prepare for the cent said South Africa should not mibia that have been going on for possibility that Resolution 435 would negotiate with the South-West Africa more than seven years since Dr. Henry be indefinitely delayed by the Cuban People's Organization and 88.3 percent Kissinger, then U.S. secretary of state, troops" continued presence in Angola. disagreed with the statement that South went to the South African capital of It could not declare unilateral indepen- Africa could not win the war against Pretoria on a much-publicized peace dence, nor could it put a constitution SWAPO. mission in September 1976. The South into effect, and it could not implement These realities put optimism about a African decision to "disengage" its Resolution 435. "But we are not going settlement in Namibia in its place, de- troops in southern Angola may turn out to be caught with our pants down, so we spite the war's heavy toll. The latest to be one of those high points, but in will draft a constitution," Mudge said. casualty figures indicate the heavy Namibia, where war is a grim reality, And in Cape Town, a survey of price being paid for the continuation of there is little expectation that the cur- opinion among ministers, deputy the conflict. According to the South- rent round of negotiations will be any more successful than previous discus- sions in ending the violence. A new grouping of six internal politi- SOUTH WEST cal parties, called the Multi-Party NAMIBIA AFRICA 200m,s Conference (MPC) — which has been praised by South African Prime Minis- Angola Zambia ter Pieter Botha — has. for instance, already begun drawing up a constitu- tion for a "post-independence" Namibia, preempting phases eight and Grootfontein nine for the implementation of Security Council Resolution 435 for a United Nations-supervised .settlement of the dispute, where provision is made for a constituent assembly. The MPC has Walvis Bay also said it was considering forming an interim government. WINDHOEK Botswana

Barry Streek is a freelance journalist Keetmanshoop based in Cape Town, South Africa. The former political correspondent oi the East Atlantic London Daily Dispatch, he is the co- Luderitz author, with Richard Wicksteed, of Render Ocean Unto Kaiser (Johannesburg: Ravan Press, 1981), an expose of developments in Transkei since it was granted "indepen- dence" by the South African government in 1976. V South Africa

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 57 West Africa Territory Force (SWATF), The invasion of Angola in December sity of South Africa, it is not that its 7,894 SWAPO guerrillas have been 1983 and January 1984 again under- presence is well received: "South Af- killed between 1966 and August 1983. lined the toll of war; according to offi- rica's position is weakened because the 01 these, 633 died between January and cial figures, 21 South African soldiers army is not seen as a gentle giant pro- August 1983. According to SWATF. died and about 500 Angolan, Cuban, tecting the people. There is a perception between 1979 and September 1983, and SWAPO troops perished in the of the South African Defense Force as 303 civilians have died and 513 were clashes, which included a tank battle an occupying army and a destructive injured in landmine blasts caused by near the town of Cuvelai. The SADF force. This is definitely increasing and SWAPO; 366 civilians were killed by has never released injury figures, but is now well established." the insurgents; and 1,341 civilians were for every dead soldier, many more have But what is beyond any dispute is "abducted." been wounded. that South African whites have made a But in a paper submitted to the No official figure for the number of major financial, logistical, and emo- United Nations conference on Namibia soldiers on the Namibian/Angolan bor- tional commitment to fighting the war in Paris in April, the UN Council for der has been given, but estimates range in Namibia and Angola. Nearly every Namibia gave a very different picture. from 20,000 to 35,000 to the UN Coun- white family has a relative or acquain- SWAPO, it said, had "put out of ac- cil for Namibia's figure of 100,000. tance on what is called ' 'the border'' at tion" 2,865 security force soldiers, de- Nor has any official figure been given any given time. At the age of 18, every stroyed 79 trucks and 37 armed person- for the cost of fighting the war, but it is young white man becomes eligible for nel carriers, and shot down 18 combat clearly heavy — guestimates of the two years' compulsory military ser- aircraft, 14 helicopters, and two recon- military costs to South Africa range vice, part ot which is likely to be spent naissance planes. The South African from $1.6 million to $4.8 million a day. in the hot, dusty sands of the border. government disputed these figures — The South African government says After that, they will be called up for they were "absolutely ridiculous and Namibia is costing nearly $900 million camps, some of which may be three untrue," the SADF said — but inde- a year. months long. pendent assessment of the situation is According to Dr. Andre du Pisanie, a In short, however one may assess the impossible. political science lecturer at the Univer- political role of South African soldiers

South African soldiers at observation post in northern Namibia: A financial, logistical, and emotional commitment to fighting the war

58 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 in Namibia, white South Africans have have no hesitation in becoming totally later that South Africa would have to made a significant sacrifice to fight the Marxist. Then there is Mozambique, accept the result of a free and fair elec- war on the border. And they arc not which is already communist. Then you tion in Namibia even if it were won by going to give up that sacrifice very eas- will have the red belt pulled tight on our SWAPO. General Malan had, how- ily. No South African government, borders." ever, given the clearest indication ever particularly one facing right-wing pres- of government thinking on Namibia, sure, can afford politically to strike any and emphasized just how difficult, if deal that is not acceptable to those peo- not impossible, it will be for indepen- ple. The political price would simply be dence negotiations to be concluded that too high. This is one of the tough can satisfy both the requirements of UN realities that has to be faced in any pos- Security Council Resolution 435 and sible peace settlement in Namibia — the political aspirations of white South and it is one that is often ignored or Africans. downplayed. On the other hand, for the first time, It has been suggested that South Af- questions are being asked since the rican whites might be persuaded to ac- latest invasion about whether it is really cept a deal that involves the withdrawal worth paying that price. Among those of the 25,000 to 30,000 Cuban troops who have raised doubts about South from Angola coupled with an under- African military strategies in Namibia taking by all parties that Namibia will and Angola are Professor Herman never be used as a base for guerrilla in- Giliomee, an Afrikaans-speaking po- surgency inside South Africa. This pos- litical scientist; Neil Orpen, a military sibility cannot be dismissed, but, at the historian; and various newspapers. The same time, the evidence in support of il antigovernment Cape Times, for in- is not very strong. stance, said in an editorial: "It is dif- Indeed, the South African minister of ficult to see where this policy is lead- defense. General Magnus Malan, an ing, other than to turn Angola into influential member of the government, another Lebanon and provide a new was quite emphatic on the subject when flood of Soviet arms into the area." he spoke in Prime Minister Pieter Still, the newspaper did also say that Botha's constituency of George in Oc- UNITA leader Jonas Savimbi: "the Botha government, we must as- Guerrilla activities are increasing tober 1982. South Africa, he said, Angola's need for Cuban support sume, has given the military their could not withdraw from Namibia, as head." It might also have said that a the operational area would then be large majority of whites have given it transferred from the territory to the their heart. As the former head of mili- Northern Cape and South Africa would To illustrate this interpretation, the tary intelligence. General V. Du Toit, lose the initiative. government-owned television monop- put it after the invasion, the South Afri- Malan's actual words are significant oly in South Africa produced a map of can public was "very loyal." Despite not only because they reflect thinking in neighboring countries with red arrows the public airing of these doubts, the the military establishment, but also be- and a red belt circling around the Re- majority of white South Africans still cause they say much about white moti- public from Angola to Mozambique, fully support the government's military vations for their commitment to the war in the middle of which was a picture of strategies — and they are not. for the in Namibia. With Prime Minister Botha the hammer and sickle. General Malan present, going to give up in an election watching, Malan, the former head of continued: "Then all our borders will what they have fought for so long in the Defense Force, but now an elected be open for terrorism and incursions, battle. Nationalist member of Parliament, in the Transvaal, Northern Natal, and Ostensibly, the only outstanding said: "South-West Africa's [Namib- the Northern Cape." issue in the way of a settlement in ia's] war is your war. If you withdraw In the uproar afterwards — the offi- Namibia is the presence of some 25,000 from South-West Africa, then you are cial opposition in South Africa de- Cuban troops in Angola. Prime Minis- busy extending the front, bringing it scribed his statement as "one of the ter Botha has time and again stressed 1,500 kilometers closer to the Republic most disturbing and destructive state- that the Cubans would have to with- of South Africa. You will shift the op- ments made by a South African cab- draw from Angola before any deal erational area from the Cunene in South inet minister in years" — Malan is- could be finalized. Forinstance, he told Angola, where the struggle is actually sued a clarifying statement saying that his own Cape Nationalists last year: taking place, to the Orange River, to the he "merely stated very clearly why we "The government has always had a rea- Northern Cape. If South-West Africa is are in South-West Africa and why we sonable attitude towards a settlement, communist. I see Botswana going in the cannot summarily withdraw." but we are not, and never will be, wil- same direction because it will be sub- And Foreign Minister Roelof "Pik" ling to support any plan unless a clear ject to pressure. And Zimbabwe will Botha said at a public meeting two days prior arrangement is made regarding

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 59 1 the withdrawal of Cubans from An- In such circumstances, the prospects With that kind of assessment of po- gola." of a Cuban withdrawal seem unlikely tential aims, there seems to be little or Certainly the Cuban presence in An* for the foreseeable future. Those cir- no possibility of the South African gov- gola is a major problem in the way of a cumstances could of course change, but ernment, or white people in South Af- solution, for not only the South African a continued war of insurgency by rica, accepting any arrangement with government but also the Reagan ad- UNITA with continued support by the Cubans remaining in Angola. It is ministration has linked the Cuban with- Cuba and the Eastern bloc for the not that these political realities have drawal to any settlement. The South MPLA government appears the most changed significantly since the first African view is that the Cubans are a probable course. If this is the case, set- high-powered negotiators started destabilizing factor in southern Africa, tlement of the Namibian dispute with coming to southern Africa in an attempt that they are agents of Moscow fulfil- internationally supervised elections to settle the Namibian dispute peace- ling the aims of Soviet expansionism, will continue to be elusive. fully. Over the years, numerous top and that they facilitate SWAPO's Indeed, one of the best informed diplomat;- have attempted to promote a "terrorism." The Frontline states have military correspondents in South Af- settlement in Namibia, including the repeatedly rejected any linkage be- rica, Willem Steenkamp of the Cape former U.S. secretary of state, Henry tween a Cuban withdrawal and a set- Times, argued that there were advan- Kissinger; the foreign ministers of the tlement in Namibia. tages to South Africa if the conflict five-nation Western Contact Group, in- cluding the following secretary of state, Cyrus Vance, and the then British foreign secretary, David Owen; the former U.S. ambassador to the UN, Donald F McHenry; the current U.S. assistant secretary of state for African affairs, Chester Crocker; and the UN secretary-general, Javier Perez de Cuellar. In January 1981, there were all-party talks in Geneva, but they did not result in any substantial progress toward a settlement. During 1983, the British junior minister in the Foreign Office of Afri- can affairs, Malcolm Rifkind, and Crocker's deputy, Frank Wisner, have joined the list of those who have been to Pretoria to discuss the Namibian issue. Former U.S. Secretary of State Vance and South African Prime Minister Botha Early in 1984, Crocker returned to discussing UN plan for Namibia in 1978: There is no expectation that current negotiations will fare any better South Africa and paved the way for the "disengagement" decision. But in spite of this extended Western dip- lomatic energy and in spite of the vary- But what are the real chances of a were prolonged. Not only, he wrote, ing degrees of optimism over the years, Cuban withdrawal? It is difficult, at the did UNITA's activities force the An- finalization of a peace package in best of times, to work out what is hap- golan government to spread its troops Namibia still seems to be a long way pening in Angola's civil war, but from throughout the large country, making off. reports reaching South Africa, it cer- follow-up operations against SWAPO When Dr. Kissinger met the former tainly seems thai the guerrilla activities "much easier," but they substantially South African Prime Minister John of UNITA are escalating, increasing hampered SWAPO penetration of Vorster in September 1976, they talked rather than reducing the Angolan gov- Namibia because the guerrillas had to about, among other issues, indepen- ernment's need for Cuban support. contend with UNITA forces and infor- dence for Namibia by the end of 1978. Moreover, it is clear that the Angolan mers as well as the security forces on The international negotiators have economy has suffered badly during the the Namibian border. stopped talking about dates any more war, preventing any significant recov- Moreover, the continued conflict — Perez de Cuellar merely talked about ery and increasing the need for outside constituted "powerful leverage on the "substantial progress" in his visit to support, which, to this date, has come Angolan government." There was also South Africa in August 1983, and from the Cubans and/or Russians. "the possibility that UNITA can be Chester Crocker would only say the South Africa's support for UNITA has used to dislodge the Angolan-based latest talks were "useful." For good never been confirmed officially in Pre- Cubans and bring the border war to a reason. The real possibilities of a set- toria, but it is clearly important for the satisfactory [to Pretoria] conclusion," tlement in the near future just do not rebel movement'scontinued successes. Steenkamp wrote. exist. D

60 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 OPINION Policy Options in Namibia

BY JOHN SEILER

f there is an end to the Namibian im- optimism characteristic of Reagan ad- senior South African intelligence offi- I passe, it is not yet in sight. South ministration negotiations early in 1984 cials about the limited aims and re- Africa has little incentive to strike a in the aftermath of Operation Askari. sources being brought to bear by the diplomatic bargain leading to early At best, Washington might succeed in Soviet Union in southern Africa. Ironi- UN-supervised elections with their in- prompting South African restraint from cally, this briefing may have contrib- evitable SWAPO victory — whatever further raids into Angola, at least for the uted to the boldness of Operation As- form the vote may eventually take. De- balance of the presidential campaign kari, which was launched after this spite the grinding pressures of UNITA period, thus minimizing the marginal briefing and after the Soviet Union attacks, and the traumatic impact of the prospect that Democratic candidates warned South Africa of the risks inher- South African Defense Force's (SADF) and the eventual Democratic nominee ent in any escalation of the SADF role Operation Askari in December 1983 might argue lor U.S. withdrawal from in Angola. and January 1984, the Angolan gov- the Republic as punishment for South Given preliminary South African re- ernment has less motivation to give in African aggression and force South sponses to the increased flow of Soviet to the South Africa-U.S. demand for Africa toward the center of campaign military aid from September to Cuban troop withdrawal than it did be- issues in a way awkward for President November 1983 (it was taken as an in- fore the December SADF attack began. Reagan to answer, and (much less evitable outgrowth of Soviet aims for It anything, for Pretoria, the lesson likely) even costing him a substantial regional hegemony, but Pretoriadid not of Askari was altogether reassuring. loss of votes. connect its increase to its own earlier Finding signs of Soviet advisers and At worst, the SADF might attack increased support for UNITA, nor did capturing Soviet arms not before seen again in force, this time generating a officials seem worried about the im- in southern Africa demonstrates not significantly larger Cuban troop in- mediate military consequences), at only for South Africans, but for sym- volvement and, if the engagement is what point, if at all, in the probable in- pathetic Western audiences as well, prolonged and threatening to the cremental escalation of Cuban in- that the Soviet threat is mounting. At SADF, bringing the Reagan adminis- volvement in fighting alongside Ango- the same time, in a feat of paradoxical tration to a serious appraisal of whether lan troops against the SADF and in the reasoning not surprising to close ob- to help Pretoria and with what forces. presence of increased Soviet arms and servers of South African official pro- What can be done to avert such a advisers would the present Soulh Afri- cesses, the South African government foreboding moment in U.S. regional can perception of unblinking confi- has concluded that it can cope with the policy? Very little, given the in- dence reverse itself? new ensemble of forces directed against tertwined perspectives that govern de- And what about the prevalent, it. cision making at this time in Pretoria though seldom articulated, perspective The implications of this perception and Washington. South African righ- common to that coterie of U.S. officials point away from a South African with- teousness about its regional role has now controlling the formulation of drawal of forces from the Angolan- been fueled by the apparent success of U.S. regional policy? Chester Crocker, Numibian front, contrary to the forced its coercive policies vis-a-vis Mozam- the American assistant secretary of bique, Swaziland, and Lesotho, which state for African affairs, undoubtedly are seen as a victory for tough-minded maintains that admirable dispassion realism. Only the parallel sense of pol- that led him to characterize SWAPO as John Seiler is visiting associate professor icy triumph in Angola may be open to reflective in part of genuine Namibian at the University of Connecticut, and visit- alternative interpretations aimed at aspirations, but at least one of his senior ing professor at the U.S. Army's John F. constraint of South African military in- officials has privately spoken of that Kennedy Special Warfare Center, Fort itiatives. But from what souces are such Bragg, North Carolina. Lale last year, he organization as a "two-bit" movement visited South Africa and Namibia. views to come? that did not deserve U.S. support. In an admirable effort toward this However narrowly that narrow-minded end, the U.S. government briefed view may be held in the Africa bureau

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 61 of the Department of State, given the call "nation building," but which ready to renounce apartheid for South extraordinarily limited leverage U.S. functionally is no more than traditional Africa itself. officials have vis-a-vis their South Af- community development work. The Leaving aside for the moment the rican counterparts, it appears unlikely cruel irony is twofold — that it took problems posed for the U.S. govern- that these Americans will weigh them so long to turn away from the pas- ment by the stalemated negotiations SWAPO highly as they calculate where sivity of waiting for negotiations to and the risk of a sharp escalation in to press the South Africans about their work; and that no more than a negligi- fighting caused by South African mis- plans tor Namibia. ble amount of community development perceptions of Angolan, Cuban, and What are those South African plans? work has been done in Namibia beyond Soviet motives, a hint of longer-term One more venture to tap a non-SWAPO the immediate confines of mission sta- hope lies in this convergent preoccupa- (or potentially anti-SWAPO) black tions and in urban church centers. tion with nation building and develop- leadership cadre was launched in late Despite this burgeoning commitment ment. In a comparatively short time, 1983 — the Multi-Party Conference. to "nation building" by at least some the view now held by sector comman- From the administrator-general's significant black leaders, the prospects ders may dominate the SWA Territorial perspective (to be more precise, from for the MPC or any subsequent mech- Force, and, in addition, as sector com- that of his senior adviser, Sean Cleary, anism taking on life as a motivator for manders and senior officers are re- formerly a senior official in South Af- national development remain bleak. As assigned to SADF headquarters in Pre- rica's embassy in Washington and then with every earlier South African ven- toria, they will bring to those more briefly consul general in Los Angeles), ture at encouraging non-SWAPO black sheltered quarters their greater realism the MPC represents a genuine effort to leadership, this one suffers already about Namibian policies. break the logjam brought about by the from two disabling stigmas. Associa- In Pretoria, their attitudes are likely collapse of the Democratic Tumhalle tion with Pretoria carries a risk that still to win over the SADF general staff and Alliance (DTA) and the public humili- outweighs any conceivable advantages, the present defense minister, Magnus ation of "second-tier1* (ethnic re- and no Ovambo or Kavango leader Malan. Persuading P.W. Botha would gional) administrations in various offi- wants to commit himself, partly be- be far more difficult, because any ap- cial reports of their incompetence and cause of SWAPO's omnipresence in parent renunciation of separate devel- corruption. Cleary, it not his more those areas, but partly because in his opment in Namibia would be seen by stolid colleagues in Pretoria, acknowl- more optimistic moments he can see critics within the Republic and abroad edges tacitly that separate administra- himself as leader of a non-SWAPO as a demonstration of eventual change tion has failed unalterably in Namibia Namibian government because of his for South Africa itself. and that some vehicle is now required to population preponderance. Even more to the point, right-wing bring a semblance of overall national In the longer run, the commitment to Afrikaner opposition would stiffen and planning and program implementation nation building may be joined by a very gain support not only from moderate to the territory. He would like to chan- powerful ally. SADF senior comman- Afrikaners but from English-speaking nel those blacks not yet stigmatized by ders in northern Namibia without ex- whites as well. The best that can be ex- association with either the DTA or ception have taken on governmental- pected, given these political con- second-tier governments, and who administrative roles nominally as- straints, would be a mechanism in have some competence and leadership signed to second-tier governments for Windhoek with little formal power, but potential, into taking a concerted lead want of second-tier competence or even with substantial de facto power chan- toward this end. presence. neled in some tortuous fashion (via the There are such blacks, a dwindling Well beyond their vaguely stated administrator-general) into ethnic ad- number who have to this time refused to mandate to carry out "civic action," ministrations. Although the cross-cur- participate in any South African-sanc- these men are engaged in what amounts rents are more tangled than those that tioned political dispensation for fear of to colonial administration — policing led in South Africa to the pending an inevitable political loss to SWAPO, of ordinary social conflicts and mainte- tripartite legislature, it is not unfeasible but who simultaneously have refused to nance of limited services available to for Pretoria's constitutional planners to come under SWAPO's umbrella, either these areas. But at the same time, each devise a similar scheme for an 11-part because they fear Ovambo dominance commander has begun to focus on "de- Namibian government with an execu- in a SWAPO regime or because they velopment" problems. Because no tive providing direction not existent in see a role for their own talents only out- explicit mandate has been given for this the present administrative arrange- side the SWAPO framework. Some of activity, a remarkable range of views ments. them, at a very late point in Namibian and embryonic activities exists. None Is there any realizable alternative to political life, have turned away from an of these men has any deep-rooted this modest improvement in the parlous embittering preoccupation with inter- commitment to separate development state of Namibian administration? The national negotiations (captured in the as Afrikaner ideology. If anything, balance of usable forces suggests not. repeated torment of whether to meet working with black troops has per- No one will give SWAPO enough sup- with Contact Group and UN officials suaded them that too much has been port to mount an effective conventional during Windhoek visits) to engage both made of the need for ethnic separate- invasion of Namibia. Hopefully, the urban and rural Namibians in what they ness, although none of them appears Reagan administration will think better

62 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 of giving any form of military support to South Africa if it should recklessly engage in expanded fighting inside An- gola. Needless to say, this conclusion leaves a bitter taste morally. There can be no illusions about the disintegration of normal life in Namibia already commonplace in Ovamboland and spreading into Kavangoland. Even if Kocvoet killing and torture are now belatedly brought under some semblance of control after the public embarrassment of a magistrate's hear- ing in Rundu and extensive South Afri- can press reports, the overall impact of South African military presence has been destructive. Of course. SWAPO guerrillas contribute to communal in- stability through their own ruthless acts. And less obviously, the prolonged drought (upwards of four years in most of the north) has made normal life even more implausible. Despite the life-giving presence of water points and ponds at many spots along the Oshakat-Ondangwa road (the SWAPO leader Sam Nujoma: No one will give SWAPO enough support to mount an result of South African piping of water effective conventional invasion of Namibia from the Cunene River), livestock re- main ill-nourished, there are few trees in Ovamboland. and there are no wild birds at all. Even if life is relatively airing of its altogether negative impli- will be necessary to keep in touch with normal in Kaokoland, Caprivi, and cations for U.S. interests elsewhere in those individuals and groups within the south ot the operational zone in the rest Africa, throughout the developing territory whose commitment to "nation of Namibia, the drought's impact and world, and indeed in Western Europe. building" deserves support and re- the absence of any serious development The widespread antipathy now com- quires financial aid. Doing this does not activities in themselves produce mas- monplace about U.S. linkage of a require disowning SWAPO. To the sive problems. Although Namibia is Cuban withdrawal from Angola to contrary, more open sympathy for not included in the FAO's list of 22 Af- SADF withdrawal from Namibia SWAPO and at the same time to other rican countries facing widespread should make the implications of such black Namibians would be both mor- hunger problems, in fact some black policies palpably apparent to all but the ally appropriate and an accurate reflec- Namibians in the southern half ol the most hidebound conservatives or ra- tion of U.S. attitudes about black territory are resorting to protein and vit- cists in the Reagan administration. Namibians deciding their own future. amin tablets intended as supplemental The policy implications of the In effect, the modest U.S. programs for feed for livestock. And even though the long-term stalemate in international black education and training within military-police hand is much more negotiations present what will be in South Africa are beginning to reflect a lightly applied south of Ovamboland, it some senses more difficult problems. If similar attitude. is enough to stand at the Oshivello se- President Reagan is reelected, his ad- Helping Namibians through both UN curity gate at the southern border of visers on southern African policy may and bilateral channels to meet some Ovamboland and watch ex-SWAPO well be more conservative than Dr. immediate development needs does not men in roadside tents peer through slits Crocker and less inclined to question mean putting off a continued commit- at blacks waiting for entry north to un- South African bona fides in Namibia ment to Namibian independence based derstand the insidious implications of and at home. In those circumstances, or on internationally supervised elections. the security force presence for most even if a Democrat is elected, it will be Those elections are not imminent, but black Namibians. necessary for critics of the South Afri- aid to Namibian blacks can only help to What are the implications for U.S. can presence and policy in Namibia to engender a social atmosphere in which policy? The prospect of U.S. military do more than vent moral outrage and black pressure for greater participation support for the SADF may be political frustration in various outlets, — with these elections as one important minimized by repeated and extensive however justified those motivations. It manifestation — will grow rapidly. •

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 63 Books

AFRICAN LEADERS AS the official publication of the leader's words of national leaders — such as COMIC-BOOK HEROES: speeches and declarations. Collections distributing official portraits; printing REVIEW OF A BIOGRAPHICAL of these may be had in most African the leader's picture on stamps, coins, SERIES countries, varying in form from cheap posters, and signposts; organizing pamphlets to expensive, hardbound acclamatory parades, rallies, and na- volumes and sets. The champion in tional referenda; flooding the media that league is Guinea's Sekou Toure, with adulatory materials, etc. — Histoire dit Zaire: il etait une fois whose collected words are now sometimes quite imaginative ways Mobutu. Paris: Afrique Biblio Club, gathered in 25 volumes. Yet the little were devised to help in the task of 1977. Other editions (with the same red, black, or green books failed to image-building. The portrait button title, but only the country and name have the impact of their great model. made its appearance, as did official changed) are available on: Omar They never became the political talis- prayers, hymns, and eulogies, plus the Bongo (1980), Gnassingbe Eyadema mans of enthusiastic masses, and in renaming of everything from abattoirs (1976), Ahmadou Ahidjo (1980), any event, given widespread illiteracy to provinces in honor of the leader. Leopold Senghor(1980), King Hassan and the usual turgidity of the prose, Recently, the presidential wristwatch II (1980), Felix Houphouet-Boigny were little read even by party militants. became available in Gabon and Togo. (1979), and Muammar Qaddafy (date The collected speeches fared little The one in Togo, which can only be unknown). better because of their high cost and purchased at the RPT party head- limited distribution (to foreigners and quarters in Lome, is a Swiss-made the political elite). wind-up timepiece on whose face an In addition to various time-tested image of General Eyadema fades in For about a decade, roughly be- methods of spreading the picture and and out every 20 seconds. tween 1965 and 1975, one of the pre- ferred ways of popularizing the image and ideas of African leaders was the publication of local versions of Mao Zedong's famous "Little Red Book." Togo's Gnassingbe Eyadema and Zaire's Mobutu Sese Seko each had their own "Little Green Book" of po- litical aphorisms; Kwame Nkrumah of Ghana was all set to publish his "Little Black Book" when he was overthrown in 1966; and Didier Ratsiraka of Madagascar's "Red Book" now pre- sumably guides the ideological con- volutions of his AREMA (Vanguard of the Malagasy Revolution Party). The Eyadema and Mobutu "Green Books" are out of print; the Nkrumah "Black Book" is available only through his English publisher (Panaf Books Ltd.); and the Ratsiraka booklet is hard to come by even in Antananarivo itself. An older and still active enterprise is Elevating leaders to the rank of political sainthood

64 AFRICA REPORT - March-April 1984 By far the most interesting and am- bitious recent effort at projecting offi- cial images of national leaders — created tor and principally used in French-speaking Africa — is the car- toon-strip, comic-book style biog- raphy. Some time ago, it was observed that Francophone Africans, adults and children alike, had become as addicted to the full-length, large format (usu- QU IL. EST B£AU 'S WD8UTU KJJW-J K&BEfiJDU \JA ZA SAW&A ally), hardbound comic book as had SON bRAKIO• OftCL€ ihcir French counterparts. The sale of QUi CTAlT UK> the Tintin and Asterix series, for example, were almost as brisk in Fran- cophone Africa as they were in France itself, even given difficulties of dis- tribution and lower literacy rates. A small, enterprising Parisian public re- lations firm operating under the name of the Afrique Biblio Book Club, The birth of Mobutu: Official popular myth making which had hitherto been involved in official vanity publishing for several African governments, approached of the country) and // etait une fois Second, the leader's political con- them and others about doing a comic- ("Once upon a time there was") fol- science is awakened by some unpleas- book style biography on each of their lowed by the name of the leader. Since ant brush with colonialism, an experi- top men. Thus far, they've been quite Cameroon is a bilingual country, there ence that helps involve him in the na- successful, having published cartoon- is also an English-language version of tionalist struggle of his country. If the strip biographies of Senghor. the Ahidjo book, and the Qaddafy leader is not a member of the found- Houphouet-Boigny, Hassan II. book appears in both French and ing-father generation of nationalists, Eyadema, Ahidjo, Bongo, Mobutu. Arabic. he is portrayed as a trusted friend or and Qaddafy (the only non-Franco- The content format does vary some- associate of other heroes of the nation- phone in the bunch). The printing runs what, notably in the choice of whether alist period. Thus. Bongo is singled are between 5,000 and 10,000 copies, or not a section on the history of the out early in his career by Leon Mba as which are then sold in the streets, country is included. The Ahidjo book, a man of unusual intelligence and dis- bookstores, or at ruling party offices. for example, devotes 18 pages to tinction, thus logically progressing to The cost is usually moderate at the Cameroonian history, and Senghor become the latter's natural heir. So bookstore and party offices (about $3 does not enter into his book until page also Mobutu is portrayed as an early each), but when they are sold by street 13. In the others, the leader is born on admirer, friend, and collaborator of hawkers, anything goes. page one or two. Otherwise, the books Patrice Lumumba. The comic-strip biographies are in- arc remarkably similar in their treat- Third, the leader's rise to power is teresting for reasons other than their ment of the lives of the leaders they natural, logical, or inevitable, and in official origins. For one thing, they glorify. Five related themes are usually any case, both right and legitimate. If represent the latest official efforts to treated in sequence: Bongo is Mba's natural successor, so rewrite African history. They are de- First, the leader is already marked in Mobutu appears at a critical juncture in liberately tilted at the minimally and some way for greatness during his Zaire's history as the only person capa- functionally literate masses, and are youth and/or infancy. Eyadema be- ble of reconciling the warring factions designed to elevate current leaders to comes a champion village wrestler and and preventing the country from laps- the ranks of political sainthood previ- achieves renown for his courage and ing into chaos. Eyadema, who leads the ously reserved for the martyrs and wisdom. Young Mobutu single-hand- coup against Nicholas Grunitsky (to heroes of the anticolonial struggle and edly kills a leopard that attacked him save the country from "collapsing in the real and semimythical rulers and and his grandfather. Bongo distin- disunion"), is eventually called to leaders of the past. guishes himself in his studies; one of his power to replace "a regime too corrupt The uniform format of the comic- teachers is made to describe him thus: to survive." Ahidjo becomes premier strip biographies is a size of 22x29'/2 "He's a brilliant pupil, studious, a bit in 1958, according to his book, because mm (the same as the French cartoon too solitary. Excellent in French and he is the only man capable of saving his books), with 48 pages, a printed hard languages." Ahidjo also distinguishes rebellion-torn country and of bringing or soft cover with a portrait of the himself in his studies, as is the case with true unity to Cameroon. leader, and the title Hiswire (lit (name Senghor. Fourth, the leader then overcomes

AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 65 great obstacles (e.g., internal rebellion; surprise to the former, who is shown and young children (as I learned in conspiracies, including attempts to kill sadly announcing the fact to his col- Cameroon and Togo) take them at face him; the machinations of wicked for- leagues. There is also the apocryphal value. Their elders, however, wise in eigners; political chaos; etc.) and builds story, told in great detail, about how the the political ways of their respective a strong, dynamic, prosperous, and re- young Mobutu single-handedly killed a countries, are much less likely to do so. spected nation. leopard that was attacking him and his Nonetheless, they undoubtedly have Fifth, the great of the world seek him grandfather, as well as the claim that his some impact because they are officially out for counsel and advice. He is shown present name — Mobutu Sese Seko disseminated and sponsored, and be- talking at the UN and/or communing Kuku Ngbendu Wa Za Banga — was cause the leaders involved have taken with world and African leaders. For given him at birth by his father. (In fact, considerable pains to prevent contrary example, Eyadema is shown with he was christened Joseph-Desire.) views from being circulated. Mobutu, Mao Zedong, Houphouet- How are these books, and those like Boigny, Houari Boumedienne, Sekou them, seen by their target audiences? Victor T. Le Vine Toure, and Giscard d'Estaing; Bongo is The books, or their equivalents, are Washington University, shown with Giscard, Marien Ngouabi, standard fare in government schools, St. Louis Ahidjo, Senghor, Houphouet-Boigny, King Hassan II, de Gaulle, Pompidou, King Baudoin, Queen Elizabeth, Mao, Emperor Hirohito, Pope Paul VI, and President Nixon. Mobutu has the STATEMENT OF OWNERSHIP, MANAGEMENT AND CIRCULATION KrauirrJ by J9 USC H85) longest list: de Gaulle, King Baudoin, 1A TITLE OF PUBLICATION IB PUBLICATION NO 2 OATE OF F Queen Elizabeth, Nixon, Nasser, Sen- AFRICA REPORT 0 0 0 1 9 8 3 6 1-10-f ghor, Boumedienne, Eyadema, Mao, 3 FREQUENCY OF ISSUE LI8SCRIPTION Kim II Sung, Nicolae Ceaucescu, King bi-monthly 521.00 * COMPLETE MAILING ADDRESS OF KNOWN OFFICE OF PUBLICATION ISIttrt. Clly. County. Sautml ZIP Codl) INat prim Faisal, Indira Gandhi, Emperor Hiro- 833 United Nations Plaza, New York, N.Y. 10017 hito, George Foreman, Muhammad S COMPLETE MAILING ADDRESS OF THE HEADQUARTERS OF GENERAL BUSINESS OFFICES OF THE PUBLISHER INa Ali, Giscard, and King Hassan II. 833 United Nations Plaza, Hew York, N.Y. 10017 Clearly, these are self-conscious at- 8 FULL NAMES ANO COMPLETE MAILING ADDRESS OF PUBLISHER. EDITOR. AND MANAGING EDITOR (Thil Him MUST NOT I

tempts at official popular myth-making African-American Institute, 833 United Nations Plaza, New York, N.Y. 10017 by reconstructing national history EDITOR INimi anj Campltrt Mmillni Addrtul Margaret A. Novicki, Editor, Africa Report around the person and personality of the African-American Institute, 833 United Nations Plaza, New York, N.Y. 10017 leader. They also offer interesting in- MANAGING EDITOR INamtiml Cemplrit Mtlltnt AddriH) sight into the varieties of self-serving none images that African leaders seek to project. In such efforts, it is hardly sur- prising that history is made to serve the FULL NAME COMPLETE MAILING AOORESS African-American Institute 337 U.N. PlazaT'New Vork~fT.Y. 1OO'I7' image-maker; hence, embarrassing episodes in the leader's life are retold in his favor, or new events are simply concocted out of whole cloth. The FULL NAME COMPLETE MAILING ADDRESS Eyadema and Mobutu books contain excellent examples of this kind of re- construction. In the former, the killing ot Togo's first president, Sylvanus 8 FOR COMPLETION HY NONPROFIT ORGANIZATIONS AUTHORIZED TO MAIL AT SPECIAL RATES tSccrton 4!) I 2 DVM < Olympio, is shown as an accident; an unidentified participant in the coup AVERAGE NO. COPIES EACH ACTUAL NO COPIES Of SINGLE EXTENT AND NATURE OF CIRCULATION ISSUE OURING PRECEDING ISSUE PUBLISHED NtAREST TO against Olympio is shown shooting a 12 MONTHS FILING OATE shadowy figure trying to climb a wall A. TOTAL NO. COPIES (Nil Pnu Run) 7,333 7,2D0 "very near the American Embassy." It 858 turns out to be Olympio. {The truth is almost certainly that Olympio was 4,417 4,135 C. TOTAL FAID CIRCULATION {Sum of I0B1 tmd I0B3) dragged from the U.S. Embassy park- 5,377 4,993 ing lot — where he had been hiding in 394 E TOTAL DISTRIBUTION (Sum cfCtnd D) one of the cars— onto the street, where 5,760 5.3B7 he was shot by Eyadema himself and 1,214 1,640 2. Ratu'n ''am Ntwi Again one or two of his co-conspirators.) In 359 173 the Mobutu book, not only is Mobutu C. TOTAL llum o/t Ft ••« l-*ould !«••! ml pun r 7,333 SIGN^WRE AND HyjL0£iOITC)R. PUBLISHER, BUSINESS MANAGER. OR OWNER portrayed as Lumumba's friend, but the I certify that th« ttatMnant* mad* by m* abova ar* correct and complet* latter's murder comes as an apparent Ipf.mk L. FefrarTTTublisher

66 AFRICA REPORT • March-April 1984 JOURNAL AFFAIRS Winter 1983 Volume 37/2 Largely an offspring of the colonial system and Western cultural mores, interna- tional law is being transformed as a result of the political and economic meta- morphosis of the newly awakened Third World. What changes will occur? THF POLITICS - ^^fe^ ^-

INTERNATIONAL LAW

Oscar Schachter The Iranian Hostage Crisis Richard Falk The International Court of Justice Fritz Kratochwil Norms and the Stud\ of International Law Nicholas Onuf How International Regimes View Human Rights Ambassador Charles Flowerree Arms Control Negotiations Terry Nardin The Moral Basis of War Jack Donnelly Human Rights and U.S. Foreign Policy Joan Johnson-Freese Nuclear Nonproliferation Treat\ Daniel Cheever Law of the Sea

Published since 1947, the Journal has a readership in over 70 countries.

Subscription Rates: One Year Two Years Three Years Individual $11.00 $21.00 $31.00 Institutions $22.00 $43.00 $64.00 Foreign subscribers, except Canada, add $3.50 per year postage. single issue price: $5.50 Mail all orders to: Journal o( International Affairs Box 4, International Affairs Building • Columbia University • New York, New York 10027 — At the forefront of facts and issues — The roots of American soul food go back to West Africa When you go there you'll find greens, yams and barbecue galore.

A typical dinner from Chez Valentin in Treichville. Ivory Coast, might offer an appetizer of country pate, smoked salmon, or a mound of chunked lobster in a de- licious cream sauce. For an entree you might enjoy a rack of baby lamb or "Veal Africain," which is a veal cutlet wrapped around a banana and topped with a delicate curry sauce. As for dessert, perhaps a flaming rum omelette filled with fruit, or a baked Alaska. As you can see, the pleasures of In many of the West African countries, women dominate the retail- the palate prevail in West distribution business. Many of these "market women" have considerable Africa. Bon Appetit! wealth and exercise important political influence.

Baked AlaskHunger for shrimpas and prawns? Then take Air Af- rique to West Africa, Our coasts yield prawns in abun- dance. In fact, the name for Cameroon comes from the in Africa? Portuguesj^ord for prawns: camaroet West African cooks took the versatile okra If your experience it is limited an plant to the heights of occasional handful of Fobers or fond culinary excel- memory of a peanut butte got lence and gave new worlds to discover i a the world a soup flavorful cr on to a called gumbo. score or mon feature these luscious legumes.

Since the be ning of time, We, can mothers h teaching thei^^Haugh ters the secret^Bf goo cooking. For ex^nple, t w what are y^^ wait- tenderize tough mea ing ? Isn't it tirnl you the young cook merel disc ered West Africa? wrapped it in pa pay Just 11 your Travel Agent leaves. They're nature': or y Air Afrique /Air own tenderizer. Franc ice today. Hurry!

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