July 5, 2005 N°14 - ISSN : 1762-5157

A PROTEST CAMPAIGN IN Olivia Zemor: " is Lying!" Questions about Olivia Zemor is a co-founder of CAPJO the Azeri future (Coordination des Appels pour une Paix INTERNATIONAL OP-ED Juste au Proche-Orient -Coordination Azerbaijan is going Group Calling for a Just Peace in the through a period of ), a movement which is instability, not only at currently known as CAPJO-Euro-Palestine. the domestic level but After the presentation of a list of candidates also in the region. For to the recent European elections, Olivia several years, the Zemor tells about the actions carried out in country has been in the France to demand the respect of Human middle of an open Rights in Palestine. Zemor responds to conflict with Armenia questions made by Silvia Cattori in a regarding Nagorni- moment in which 60 French associations Karabaj. Over the past organize a protest campaign to mark the months, observers have first anniversary of the condemnation of noticed an increase of the Isareli wall by the International Court military activity and the of Justice, The Hague, and against the visit use of aggressive terms of General Sharon in Paris. by many politicians. page 2 page 8 JUNE 30, 1520 The "Noche Triste" Episode Fearing an insurrection, the Spanish colonizers massacred 600 noble Aztecs and high-ranking personalities during an important celebration. The Aztecs immediately organized a response surrounding the Spanish and imposing a long and terrible siege on them. Hernán Cortés - who was absent during the events -, after returning from Tenochtitlán, was not able to have emperor Moctezuma to intervene and pacify the situation. The latter was assassinated. When the situation went completely out of control, the Spaniards RACIAL MEDICINE FOR A RACIST SOCIETY quickly left the city after suffering great losses. In the United States, BiDil, a medicine for heart conditions produced by In spite of its ephemeral character, this episode the NitroMed pharmaceutical company, was finally authorized by the of the history of Mexico, known as the “la noche Food and Drug Administration (FDA) after several decades waiting as its triste” (the sad night) represents one of the first effectiveness had not been tested in the population. In effect, NitroMed victories over the colonizers. Mexico achieved its has just renovated the patent of its formula, now aiming mainly at the independence in 1821, more than 300 years black population, after confirming a 43% decrease in mortality and a later. 39% decrease in hospitalizations for heart problems among black patients who used it. The fact that there is no scientific element to prove that black people are more sensitive to the medicine causes a thorny debate like it happens every time that any predisposition is linked to the people’s skin color. Thus, taking into account the long record of racial discrimination of the American society and the health consequences that this case entails, it would be right to ask whether NitroMed is simply trying to exploit a market developed by the food industry among the poorer classes of the population and using the current debate as a publicity campaign.

Through original investigations and analysis, everyday the Focus section highlights a trend in international events.

A protest campaign in France Olivia Zemor: "Israel is Lying!"

Olivia Zemor is a co-founder of CAPJO (Coordination des Appels pour une Paix Juste au Proche-Orient -Coordination Group Calling for a Just Peace in the Middle East), a movement which is currently known as CAPJO-Euro-Palestine. After the presentation of a list of candidates to the recent European elections, Olivia Zemor tells about the actions carried out in France to demand the respect of Human Rights in Palestine. Zemor responds to questions made by Silvia Cattori in a moment in which 60 French associations organize a protest campaign to mark the first anniversary of the condemnation of the Isareli wall by the International Court of Justice, The Hague, and against the visit of General Sharon in Paris.

Olivia Zemor

Silvia Cattori: Were you surprised by French President Jacques Chirac’s invitation to ? What do you think it was aimed at?

Olivia Zemor: The French Minister of Foreign Relations announced Sharon’s visit in April 2004. Then, a great protest campaign was launched against the visit of this war criminal to France. More than 30 000 cards were sent to President Jacques Chirac and posters were stuck as well. The visit did not take

Page 2 July 5, 2005 Voltaire - www.voltairenetwork.net place but the French government kept making concessions to Israel and increased its collaboration with this country, including the military field. Nicolas Sarkozy, Jean-Pierre Raffarin and Michel Barnier went to Israel and their statements were astonishingly submissive to Israel and its Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who did not miss a chance to insult France and the French. The French leaders have supported the pro-Israeli pressure group in France and its blackmail regarding anti-Semitism. Therefore, we have no choice but to denounce -contrary to what other associations have done, that is to remain silent- the double standard of the French government, which supports the creation of a Palestine State and welcomes a dying Arafat while, on the other hand, stimulates Israel’s colonial and annexation policy by showing positive signs such as honoring its leaders and allowing the Israeli Army to collect money in the French territory by refusing to force Israel to apply international law. Jacques Chirac has given another step by inviting Sharon to France. It is a serious violation of the Human Rights that should be defended by our democracy. Sharon’s visit is expected to take place “after July 14 Celebrations.” Anyway, we have reacted (see the posters, slogans, pamphlets and the calls to participate in demonstrations available in our web site Europalestine). Right now, all organizations are urging people to participate in a massive demonstration which will take place on July 9, 2005 in Paris.

Poster of the "Israel is lying" campaign (Text: "Israel talks about peace but takes the land") Considering that the media do not reflect these actions at all and that political authorities support the pro-Israeli pressure groups, the situation is extremely unfavorable for Human Rights in Palestine. What chances do you actually have of being heard?

Olivia Zemor: Whereas in the very same Israel the media is also used by those who oppose Sharon’s policy, the situation in France is completely different. There are newspapers that define themselves as “progressive”, such as Le Monde and Libération, which refuse to give a space to Israelis such as Tanya Reinhart, Emmanuel Farjoun and Ilan Ppappe, who openly oppose Israel’s colonial policy. Nothing is published either on the abuses committed by the Zionist extreme right groups like Betar and the Jewish Defense League which are very active in our country despite being prohibited even in the United States. With regard to the pro-Israeli pressure groups in France, they not only have supporters in the media but in our government too. Nicole Guedj, one of the leaders of CCJO (Consultative Council of Jewish Institutions), was Secretary

Page 3 July 5, 2005 Voltaire - www.voltairenetwork.net of State for Victims’ Rights until May and, as it happens, she regretted a lot the false anti-Semitic attacks (such as the RER D farce she widely publicized) but she never said a word about the numerous victims of real acts committed against the Arabs or the blacks. This is a situation we are constantly denouncing, whereas other Human Rights organizations usually support the anti-Semitism denunciations but do not condemn other forms of racism.

Do you mean all your efforts are neutralized by those who defend adverse interests?

Olivia Zemor: The truth is the intensification of Israeli military interventions in the territories is accompanied by a generalized intensification of the work of pro-Israeli groups in the whole world. Their objective is to present Israel as the victim, something that helps to divert attention from the violations the very same Israel is committing against in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. In the regional perspective, the situation is quite disturbing too. The Israeli government wants the war to be extended in , Iran, Syria and so that it can go on with the elimination of as many Palestinians as possible. This is a project called “transference.” Since Palestinians are very attached to their land, Israel tries to force them to leave by all kinds of pressures. It is actually a “disguised deportation” not to arise the hate of the public opinion.

Are you saying the worst problem for Human Rights advocates in Palestine is to sensitize the public opinion?

Olivia Zemor: Part of the public opinion is perfectly informed for they have access to Arab TV stations such Al-Jazeera; but another part is so badly informed that it can not understand what is really happening there. The very same term “Israeli-Palestinian Conflict” (which should be taken out of our vocabulary) makes us believe there is a war between two States, two Armies, when what we actually have there is an occupant and an occupied. The truth about the occupation, the State terrorism Israel is implementing, the long list of brutalities, humiliation and strangulation actions which all occupations bring along are deliberately concealed; the media confuse the people with false presentations such as “attacks/reprisals”, “return to the cycle of violence” which lead people to believe that all Israel does is to “guarantee its security” by committing “as in every single war” some excesses, of course. Israel has been monopolizing the media for 60 years. We may not have the very same means our adversaries have but if we gather our energy, if we get together we’d have the chance of saying a different message, of proving Israel is lying, of showing the true face of the occupation.

Don’t you think that the link that has always existed between those Israelis who defend peace -who have to protect their own interests which is something understandable- and the advocates of Human Rights in Palestine -who, on their side, have lost everything- has helped to weaken solidarity? Wasn’t the solidarity movement wrong in the past?

Olivia Zemor: A divided solidarity movement can not be effective. Nowadays, the movement has new bases which are the essence of the campaign we have

Page 4 July 5, 2005 Voltaire - www.voltairenetwork.net been launching during the last month on the topic Israel lies. Thirty associations are participating in France. We got together to launch a great information campaign. In several cities of France, Belgium, Luxembourg and Switzerland we have exhibited posters that show the annexation of Palestinian territories for 60 years and the brutality of the occupation and we have distributed stickers with several messages. Through this campaign, which we will keep for some months, we want to mobilize as many citizens as possible. This is the only way we have to make the balance of forces to oblige our governments to impose sanctions against Israel.

Do you have any example to prove the flagrant way in which Israel “lies”?

Olivia Zemor: Israel has always lied. There is the “land without a people for the people without a land” concept; then the alleged “flight” of the Palestinians in 1948, a story aimed at hiding the massacres and expulsions suffered by the Palestinians; the Six-Day War was presented as a self-defense war when it was actually an Israeli attack; Ehud Barak’s famous “generous offer” in Camp David; and now, the “calm” with dead and wounded Palestinians every day and a wall that annexes more and more Palestinian territory. Israel has a long list of lies.

Don’t you think people who got mobilized and excited during decades with false peace promises are tired?

Olivia Zemor: Yes, but we have no other choice. The Palestinians are more than tired and they still resist. Despite all its lies, it is very difficult for Israel to expel them out of their land. It is obvious the wall is being closed around them. They are caged in something that looks more and more like Indians’ reservation. They will lose achievements of the Palestinian civil society in terms of access to education and organization. In 38 years of occupation, Israel has killed or incarcerated most of its leaders, its eminent men and women and has corrupted a certain amount of Palestinians which is another huge disadvantage. I don’t know if the Palestinian Authority is right in acting as if it still have certain authority or power when it can not do anything. It maintains the illusion Palestinians control their destiny, that internal reforms can improve the situation when they are actually occupied. It does not offer slogans of action to the Palestinian people who knew how to mobilize themselves massively and successfully during the first Intifada through spectacular actions of civil disobedience and who are pretty much paralyzed nowadays.

Are you optimistic regarding the union of all forces in France?

Olivia Zemor: Many militants of all associations have realized that in order to be able to influence our right or left wing political leaders and to make people respect the international law we are forced to have a popular mobilization. Unfortunately, we won’t succeed with delegations, press releases or petitions. Certain associations’ leaders in France and other parts hoped the relations they had with parliamentarians would change a bit. But what have the governments gotten during all this time? I think it is obvious we have no choice but to make a popular mobilization like those made during the war against Viet Nam and or against the apartheid in South Africa.

Page 5 July 5, 2005 Voltaire - www.voltairenetwork.net Poster of the "Israel is lying" campaign (Text: "The true face of israeli occupation") Is that the sense of the campaigns launched nowadays by “Palestine Resistance”?

Olivia Zemor: Yes, the French must understand the resistance against the oppression in Palestine is the last trench against brutality; that Palestine represents the society they are preparing for us and we are already seeing it in Iraq. It is the survival of the fittest, the law of the jungle. If we allow the elimination of Palestinians to continue, if we accept they end like the Indians in the United States, we will have to pay the price. The world has to understand the struggle for the right of the Palestinians to self-determination not only belongs to the people of Jewish or Muslim origin. People must understand that this is a drama that not only affects the people that live there, that this is not a simple injustice or suffering but something that has to do with us directly, which is the symbol of what they want to imposed upon us: a world in which tomorrow, the weakest, the defenseless will live in hell. What they are preparing for us is a dark tomorrow. We have to say we don’t want such a world neither for us nor for our children. We must not forget what happened during WWII when people decided not to intervene for they felt they were not being affected directly. Today, we know. We can neither avoid our responsibilities, nor can we say we did not know.

So, the media that minimizes the seriousness of the abuses in Palestine and the governments that do not say a word, will then have to recognize their own complicity?

Olivia Zemor: They are to be partly blamed for the problems we have to inform the public opinion. No media outlet is willing to report the actions the solidarity movement is making, which are unknown to the population. This the reason why we have no choice but to go to the streets with posters, stickers, in demonstrations making street shows...until the media stop pretending they don’t know the reality.

You are neither Israeli nor Palestinian. You are involved in the movement. Do you invest all your energy in this when you could have a better life?

Olivia Zemor: I am not an exception. I am not the only one who is committed to this cause. I know many people who invest their time and energy according to

Page 6 July 5, 2005 Voltaire - www.voltairenetwork.net their own possibilities. I think those like us who get outraged due to such brutality and arrogance and due to the denials of rights the Israeli policy represents are increasing in number. I don’t think my life is worse for all this. I don’t have the situation the Palestinians have, I am not exposed to the same dangers, and nobody has destroyed my house, I don’t fear my children be kidnapped at night or on their way to school. This is not the first time I get involved in a cause. Injustice outrages me. I fought because I wanted France to recognize the crimes it committed in October 1961, when the police threw Algerians to the Sena. I don’t see how I could have a better life. I think that if I don’t get involved my life would be worse because I would have done nothing to prevent society from being more unjust. For me, life is better if I don’t have to kneel down.

Silvia Cattori Swiss journalist

Interview made for Voltaire Network on June 30, 2005.

Voltaire is the daily international affairs publication of the Voltaire Network, “Réseau Voltaire pour la liberté d’expression”, which is solely responsible for its editorial content. Voltaire is published in France by the Thomas Paine Press, 8, rue Auguste-Blanqui, 93200 Saint-Denis, France (SARL de presse 448 286 203 RCS Bobigny). ISSN 1762-5157. Dépôt légal à parution. Director of Publication: Thierry Meyssan. Voltaire Voltaire is published 200 times a year and is distributed to its subscribers in PDF via e-mail. Free subscription: www.voltairenetwork.net/abonnement.php3

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Every day, the International Op-Ed section presents an overview and analysis of the positions of the major international decision makers and manipulators.

Questions about the Azeri future

Azerbaijan is going through a period of instability, not only at the domestic level but also in the region. For several years, the country has been in the middle of an open conflict with Armenia regarding Nagorni-Karabaj. Over the past months, observers have noticed an increase of military activity and the use of aggressive terms by many politicians.

Analysis

Azerbaijan is going through a period of instability, not only at the domestic level but also in the region. For several years, the country has been in the middle of an open conflict with Armenia regarding Nagorni-Karabaj, which has resulted in a lot of casualties. Over the past months, observers have noticed an increase of military activities and the use of aggressive terms by many politicians. The interference attempts by some western countries in the Trans-Caucasus seemed to have encouraged the most violent right forces which increase their actions in an effort to suffocate Armenia. This country, tested since the beginning of the century, is punished by its neighbors and traditional Azeri and Turkish enemies. The European extensions to are linked to the increasing Turkish interest in its neighbor. In the Gazeta SNG (the news daily of the Commonwealth of Independent States), Smbat Karakhanian, a nationalist who presides over the Armenian national club of Moscow, the Miabanutiun, denounces the joint efforts by Turkey and NATO to take control of the Caucasus and to have the last Russian bases in Armenia evacuated. In spite of old hard feelings, the East of Turkey suffers for the closing of its border with Armenia ten years ago. The links with the natural trade partners of the Caucasus are affected. The two countries do no have diplomatic relations. The Turkish are playing a dangerous game as they are trying to expand their influence in all directions: NATO, The European Union and the Caucasus - without making any concessions. The illegality of the tracing of borders with Armenia perhaps is the origin of these difficulties. The slightest change in its speech could have serious consequences for this country, that has to face a potentially strong state in its

Page 8 July 5, 2005 Voltaire - www.voltairenetwork.net borders: the Iraqi Kurdistan and its demands in the near future. Etibar Mamedov, secretary of the Party of the Azeri National Independence and one of the main personalities of the Azeri opposition speaks in the Day.Az news daily about his concern regarding the upcoming legislative elections in his country. This article is retaken by the Gazeta SNG newspaper in what is an example of the interest that exists in this region that many say the Russians have already lost. In his opinion, the change will be inevitable once the disagreements are better defined within the leading elite. This should not take long unless important reforms take place. The wish to draw the people’s attention to another potential conflict with Armenia in regards to Karabaj is certainly part of the power’s intention to find a pretext to create a state of emergency that would allow it to stay in power without paying attention to legality. The Azeri president is pressured by the United States that, in the framework of its democratization of the “Great Middle East”, makes efforts to anticipate a replacement that seems inevitable due to the increasing dissatisfaction in the country. Linked for several years to oil transnational companies thanks to the “contract of the century”, Azerbaijan is now a US military zone that has borders with Russia, Iran and Armenia and which is only safe in its fourth border: the one they share with the traditional Turkish allies. In this “green belt” around Russia, only world and regional strategic matters seem to count while the people’s will is relegated to a second level as a hostage of corporate and military interests. It seems that the race for these upcoming elections has already started and he who manages to obtain the official support of Condoleezza Rice will probably win. However, whatever happens could be merely a way to give an image of democracy while the real moves may take place in advance. Azeri president Aliev, strengthened by the American support and his contract of the century, could also benefit from an insurrection in Iran, where there is a significant Azeri minority.

Former US National Security Advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski, and his former assistant for the Middle East, William B. Quandt, analyze in the Washington Post and in the Gulf News the statements by George W. Bush on the occasion of Mahmud Abbas’s visit to Washington. They express their satisfaction for the return of the US president to the traditional position of their country in regards to the final status between Israelis and Palestinians: a return to the 1967 borders. In effect, the US president affirmed in April 2004 that those borders could not delimitate both territories and that it was necessary to take into account the “reality of the field”, that is, the settlements. Now, Washington has changed its strategy and wants Israel to obey - a position that pleases both Democrats. In the Daily Star, the researcher of the US Institute of Peace and former advisor to Al Gore, Scott Lasensky, says that Israelis and Palestinians are close to a final solution. However, in order to achieve it, the United States should support the integration of to the Palestinian Authority to make the peace process possible. It is also necessary to continue pressuring Israel so that it finally accepts facing the settlers and dismantles the settlements in the West Bank. However, he warns that Hamas should not carry out more attacks. Faced with the US change of position, Ariel Sharon uses the withdrawal from Gaza as a means to buy some time and consolidate Israel’s control in the West Bank. This topic is a subject of discussion in Ha’aretz.

Page 9 July 5, 2005 Voltaire - www.voltairenetwork.net Daniel Levy, a collaborator of Yossi Beilin, denounces the use of of the withdrawal from Gaza by Ariel Sharon. He believes that the Israeli Prime Minister will indefinitely extend the discussion with the Palestinians about the Gaza withdrawal, making emphasis on the problems. Although we endorse this analysis, we have many more doubts about the solution recommended by the author, imbued with the ambiguity that we frequently find in the editors of the initiative of Geneva. In order to face this maneuver, the author urges the Palestinian Authority and the International Quartet to make more concessions to Israel. So that Israel extends the process, has to be offered more. Zalman Shoval, a former advisor to Ariel Sharon, perfectly illustrates how the Gaza withdrawal is used to obstruct any negotiation with the Palestinians. The author says that the Palestinians probably see the Gaza withdrawal as a victory of terrorism. Thus, Israel should expect a wave of attacks or violent actions from the Palestinians, which would prevent the reactivation of the peace process. This debate exasperates Meron Benvenisti. He believes it is a false debate; an opposition among Zionist groups who agree on the essential issues, who have always backed the settlers and who do not care about the fate of the Palestinians. However, the debate has an advantage: it shows the Israelis that the arguments of those who support and those who oppose the withdrawal have the same foundation, which allows destroying the myth of confrontation in the eyes of the Israelis.

Voltaire Network

Smbat Karakhanian

“Strength Balance and Organization South of the Caucasus”

Référence : ”Баланс сил и организаций на Южном Кавказе”, by Smbat Karakhanian, Gazeta SNG, June 28, 2005.

Smbat Karakhanian is Through various programs, the North Atlantic Alliance is preparing “external chairman of the Armenian platforms” for itinerant military groups south of the Caucasus. NATO strategists National Club of Moscow, say that such bases and garrisons should allow to enforce the Budapest 1997 Miabanutiun. Summit’s decision. According to this decision, the deployment of international forces should be performed by mutual consent of all the sides involved in the Nagorni-Karabaj conflict. That’s why a policy of pressure on Armenian leaders is being carried out so that they reject the presence of Russian troops in their territory. NATO’s Under-Secretary General Robert Simons has stated: “If Armenia opposes the presence of Russian troops in its territory, Armenia will have NATO’s support” This is not the first time that NATO offers to mediate. Some conditions are necessary though. Turkey - a founder and active member of NATO - has established relations with Transcaucasia not only in this context but also in conformity with its own plans. Turkish politicians don’t conceal the fact that the

Page 10 July 5, 2005 Voltaire - www.voltairenetwork.net Bundestag resolution regarding the Armenian genocide will not help settle the issue of the relations with Erevan. Without denying their role along with the Ottoman Empire during the First World War, Germany bore out the veracity of the facts and reminded the Turkish government about the need to admit its history. Nevertheless, the Turkish reserve the right to sow discord among their neighbors. That’s exactly what they tried to do recently within the commission of the European Council Assembly, when the Armenian constitutional changes were mentioned. The Turkish delegation proposed to amend the preamble of the Armenian Constitution and legalize the country’s borders with all the vicinity. Armenia could not take part in the voting while both Turkish and Azeri could motion their idea about Armenian frontiers. The proposal was turned down but only by one vote. Evidently, NATO leaders don’t seem to be upset by such incidents or the Turkish commitment. On the one hand, Turkey blocks Armenia and on the other hand, it tries to make up a military bloc with Georgia and Azerbaijan. Russia is a founding member of the Collective Defense Treaty Organization (CDTO) and keeps close historical ties with our region. Our border with Turkey continues to be watched by Russian soldiers. It is crucial to establish a CDTO base in the region. After the Russian soldiers will retreat from Georgia in 2008, Armenia will be the only country having the Russian presence. So, the CDTO specialists will be able to exchange views with their NATO colleagues on regional security issues. This is the only way to ensure security and development in the region according to modern requirements. And also, to encourage peace negotiations in Karabaj.

Etibar Mamedov

Etibar Mamedov - secretary of the National “As Long as the Leading Elite Remains Independence Party of United, the People Will Have Azerbaijan (AMIP) and one of its founders - is a Practically No Chance to Seize Power” major figure in the Azeri opposition. Référence : ”Пока не произойдет разделение внутри самой правящей элиты, шансы на приход к власти с улицы ничтожно малы”, by Etibar Mamedov,Gazeta SNG, June 24, 2005. Adaptation from an interview.

Right now, due to the proximity of legislative elections, Azerbaijan’s internal situation is tense. It seems as if the various political forces in the country were studying each other to see who’s the strongest. The pressures of international organizations on the government remain the same, the difference being that they won’t close their eyes as they did in the past. These organizations are sick of the government’s whims. The world has changed and Azerbaijan cannot be oblivious of the democratization process. The way to democracy was started under the U.S. sponsorship. The stability stories called upon by the Azeri power from long ago are not enough anymore, Condoleezza Rice insisted on the fact that the United States is not willing to substitute democracy for stability. This country is establishing a global security system and without democracy the system won’t see the light. I don’t believe the Azeri power could be so stupid as

Page 11 July 5, 2005 Voltaire - www.voltairenetwork.net not to realize the seriousness of the world’s situation. I will soon visit the United States to clarify this state of affairs. Everything will depend on the government’s attitude toward these elections. If a revolution arises, I will be with the people one more time. This could be avoided if the elections developed normally. I think that previous failures in Azerbaijan were due to lack of opposition within the leading elite. There are people in this circle that consider reforms to be essential. As long as they talk, nobody will pay attention, but as soon as they act, they will actually arise the people’s interest. Without divisions within the elites, there would not have been a velvet revolution in Georgia or Ukraine. I’ve heard it said that the Minister of Economic Development Farkhad Aliev wanted to get dressed as a democrat and as an opponent and repeat the great deed of Yushchenko and Saakashvili. I don’t know whether that’s true but a man who spoiled the privatizations and is involved in corruption cannot lead the people. I chose the “Yes” block as it represents all the strata of society. I still think that all the opposition forces in the country should get together for the legislative elections. It was the electoral commission that caused the frauds during the last elections. So, it must be replaced. Regrettably, the government does not want to have anything to do with this sphere. According to my predictions, there will be un uprising in the country. We are in favor that all sides should respect the law. We must stay at the institutional level, this is a responsibility we have got with the country and the people. I think that the head of state is not controlling the situation in the country or within his own team. Each one of his ministers thinks himself president. If the president took his functions seriously, he should introduce reforms and get rid of the corrupt ministers around him. I don’t think anything of the kind is happening at the moment.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, William B. Quandt

Zbigniew Brzezinski was the National Security “Turning Point in Middle East Peace” Adviser of President Carter and executive Référence : “ From Bush, Mideast Words to Act On”, by Zbigniew Brzezinski and William director of the Trilateral B. Quandt, Washington Post, June 23, 2005. Commission. He is a "Turning point in Middle East peace", Gulf News, June 24, 2005. member of the Center for Strategic and International George W. Bush’s statements during his recent meeting with Mahmud Abbas Studies. Among his best deserve our attention. It had an impact on Israel, but not on the U.S. Bush said known works is El gran tablero mundial (The that Israel and Palestine final statute should “be the fruit of an agreement Grand Chessboard). between the different parties and that the changes in the lines of the 1949 armistice should also be the result of a mutual agreement”. He also asked Israel Former assistant of not to make any decisions that would infringe the obligations of the “waybill”. Zbigniew Brzezinski for To conclude, he asserted that it was necessary to preserve the contiguous nature Middle East issues at the of the West Bank and the need to have important means of access between the National Security Council (1977-1979) and a former West Bank and Gaza. If the President abides by his statements he could take a researcher of the Rand significant step in favor of the Israeli-Palestinian peace, the democratization of Corporation, William B. the Middle East and the fight against Islamist terrorism. Quandt is a researcher at Thirty-eight years ago, Israel took over Sinai, the West Bank, East Jerusalem

Page 12 July 5, 2005 Voltaire - www.voltairenetwork.net the Brookings Institution and the Golan. Simultaneously, without any previous discussion, Lyndon and professor of Johnson decided that Israel could keep these lands as long as the Arabs didn’t international relations at sign a peace agreement with Israel. This “peace-in-exchange-for-territory” the University of Virginia. approach was taken again in the UN resolution 242. Johnson also declared that the final statute should not vary much from the 1967 borders. However, in a letter sent in April 2004 to Ariel Sharon, Bush had said that the reality of the region would have to be taken into account and that there could be no return to the 1967 borders. During Mahmud Abbas’s visit, George W. Bush took again the U.S. traditional line. We welcome this news. But which version is to be believed? We’ll soon know it. But today, everything compels the President to keep Washington’s traditional position.

Scott Lasensky

Former researcher of the Council on Foreign “To consolidate the truce, the U.S. Relations and the must dialogue with Hamas” Brookings Institution, Scott Lasensky directs the Arab- Référence : “ To consolidate the truce, the U.S. must dialogue with Hamas”, by Scott Israeli project of the U.S. Lasensky, Daily Star, June 28, 2005. Institute of Peace. In 1999, he received the Yitzhak Rabin-Shimon Peres As Israeli and Palestinian leaders prepare to meet later this month, the most Peace Prize awarded by immediate challenge for the United States is to help both sides deal with those the University of Tel Aviv who reject the withdrawal from Gaza and integration of the Islamists in the and the following year was political process. Two years ago, when the Oslo process was faltering, the advisor to the duo Al Gore- conventional wisdom was that Palestinians should use any means to confront Liebermann on the Arab- Israeli conflict during the Hamas, but Israel should avoid a confrontation with the settlers. Currently, the campaign of the U.S. PLO has embarked on a power-sharing arrangement with Hamas and Tel Aviv presidential elections in saying “no” to the settlers and evacuating thousands. 2000. Without Hamas, a large segment of the Palestinian population would be left in the sidelines, thus undermining the legitimacy of Palestinian institutions. Israel, for its part, can no longer treat with kid gloves a population which is incompatible with a two-state solution building settlements. In this regard, the United States should support the Palestinian Authority and Israel. However, if Hamas resumes the attacks, the Palestinian Authority and Israel should respond. Washington’s support will strengthen Ariel Sharon to confront the settlers, but the Israeli Prime Minister should stop supporting the settlements in the West Bank. Washington should adopt an economic and security policy to promote the suspension of settlements. We are close to the two-state solution, and we must take this opportunity.

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Daniel Levy

Former political advisor to Yossi Beilin, Daniel Levy “After Gaza, more Gaza” was a member of the negotiating team at Oslo Référence : “ After Gaza, more Gaza”, by Daniel Levy, Ha’aretz, June 24, 2005. and Taba, and participated in the negotiations of the It sometimes seems that in the 53 days remaining before the withdrawal from Geneva Initiative. He is Gaza, every single settler will be interviewed by one Israeli media outlet or the son of the personal envoy of Tony Blair to the another. The obsession with the magnitude of the human interest of such Middle East, Lord Michael withdrawal is understandable, but the deafening silence on what happens next Levy, one of the main is a problem. The strategy of Ariel Sharon pertaining to the disengagement plan associates to the British has not been analyzed. Let’s call this tactics “After Gaza, more Gaza”. It looks Labor Party. like this: the Gaza and northern West Bank withdrawal is complicated, and there are a lot of issues with the Palestinian Authority that still need to be addressed. Having started (intentionally?) dealing with these issues so late, it is not certain that they will resolved in the 53 remaining days. It will take months for a resolution. During such period of uncertainty and discussions, the opposition can not fight against the government nor organize anticipated elections, and negotiations will only be on the withdrawal from Gaza. In short, there would be a midget peace process whose terms will be set by Sharon: no “road map”, no disengagement, no negotiations on final status. To Sharon, it has been a good move, but not for Israel. A similar tactic will strengthen Hamas to the detriment of the Palestinian Authority. This strategy should be challenged by the realists at Knesset, by the International Quartet and the Palestinian Authority. The Palestine Authority should revise its demands about the final status, the Quartet should redefine the route map to adapt it to the new circumstances, and establish at Knesset a major coalition made up by the realists.

Zalman Shoval

Zalman Shoval was former ambassador to the United “Two scripts for the day after” States and president of the world Likud. He is Référence : “ Two scripts for the day after”, by Zalman Shoval, Ha’aretz, June 27, 2005. advisor to Ariel Sharon. Many Israelis have found out about the confrontation between Moshe Ya’alon and Avi Dichter concerning the Gaza post-withdrawal political-security forecast. However, while their opinions differ about the withdrawal short term effects, there is far less disagreement between them when it comes to the lessons learned from the failures of Oslo, Camp David and Taba, and to long-term developments. Today, there are two potential scenarios for the day after the withdrawal. According to the most optimistic one, the majority of the Palestinians believe

Page 14 July 5, 2005 Voltaire - www.voltairenetwork.net that terror has basically failed and that it is still possible to rehabilitate the economy and a political entity with the support of the United States. But the pessimistic script says that after the withdrawal from Gaza, the Palestinians will trigger a wave of attacks and will do anything possible to obtain more. That was the strategy used by before and after Camp David. Ya’alon and Dichter admitted that this scenario is most likely, since despite the developments, the Palestinians consider the disengagement a victory of terrorism. That will be prejudicial to them, but such logical conclusion has not affected the extremists. We have to examine how Mahmud Abbas fights terror in order to draw the conclusions.

Meron Benvenisti

Meron Benvenisti was deputy mayor of “Nothing more than an internal Jerusalem. He is the autor Zionist dispute” of Sacred Landscape: Buried History of the Holy Référence : “Nothing more than an internal Zionist spat”, by Meron Benvenisti, Ha’aretz, Land Since 1948. June 30, 2005.

The closer the date of the withdrawal from Gaza, the clearer the extent of that “historical event”: an internal, limited, intra-tribal, Jewish-Zionist struggle between two camps split on the evacuation of Gaza but united in their attitudes toward the settlement as a supreme value, as part of the Jewish soul. For one camp, this approach is applicable to all settlements; whereas for the other, only to the settlements which have a geo-strategic significance. But both sides agree with the myth of settlements. Most of the Israelis remain indifferent to this matter and do not take part in this dispute between the supporters or opponents to the withdrawal. On the contrary, they have begun to identify manipulations from both sides. The Jewish-Zionist struggle can serve particularly as an evidence. This struggle clearly shows that a Jew in Israel is a pioneer, a fighter, not just a plain citizen. Equally, both of them consider that all settlers have been “sent” to the territories by the Israeli government. Therefore, the government is obliged to provide assistance and protection to them. No one would dare to think that Israel will do the same as France did at the end of the war of Algeria: each settler could do anything, either to remain in Gaza or go away. Besides, the settlers’ houses will be demolished because an Arab must not use a house infused with a Jewish soul. In the issue of disengagement, it is paid attention only to the destiny of a few thousand settlers, but absolutely not to the 1.5 million Palestinians. The world has been asked to applaud Israel’s big sacrifice and its efforts to make it possible. But peace can not be achieved like this.

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