MORRISON'S MIRACLE THE 2019 AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION MORRISON'S MIRACLE THE 2019 AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION EDITED BY ANIKA GAUJA, MARIAN SAWER AND MARIAN SIMMS In memory of Dr John Beaton FASSA, Executive Director of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia from 2001 to 2018 and an avid supporter of this series of election analyses Published by ANU Press The Australian National University Acton ACT 2601, Australia Email:
[email protected] Available to download for free at press.anu.edu.au ISBN (print): 9781760463618 ISBN (online): 9781760463625 WorldCat (print): 1157333181 WorldCat (online): 1157332115 DOI: 10.22459/MM.2020 This title is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). The full licence terms are available at creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode Cover design and layout by ANU Press Cover photograph: Scott Morrison Campaign Day 11. Photo by Mick Tsikas, AAP. This edition © 2020 ANU Press CONTENTS Figures . ix Plates . xiii Tables . .. xv Abbreviations . xix Acknowledgements . xxiii Contributors . xxv Foreword . xxxiii 1 . Morrison’s miracle: Analysing the 2019 Australian federal election . 1 Anika Gauja, Marian Sawer and Marian Simms Part 1. Campaign and context 2 . Election campaign overview . 21 Marian Simms 3 . The rules of the game . 47 Marian Sawer and Michael Maley 4 . Candidates and pre‑selection . .. 71 Anika Gauja and Marija Taflaga 5 . Ideology and populism . 91 Carol Johnson 6 . The personalisation of the campaign . 107 Paul Strangio and James Walter 7 . National polling and other disasters . 125 Luke Mansillo and Simon Jackman 8 .