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GENERAL ELECTION 2018 UPDATE-IV - FAFEN GENERAL ELECTION 2018 Update-IV

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GENERAL ELECTION 2018 UPDATE-IV - FAFEN GENERAL ELECTION 2018 Update-IV GENERAL ELECTION 2018 UPDATE-IV - FAFEN GENERAL ELECTION 2018 Update-IV May 16 – May 31, 2018 1. BACKGROUND AND INTRODUCTION systematically from 130 districts by as Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN) many trained and non-partisan District has been conducting periodic Coordinators (DCs) during the latter half assessments of the political environment of May 2018 (May 16 to May 31). The and the implementation of election- information was collected through 731 related laws, rules and regulations since interviews with representatives of 44 January 2018, as part of its multi-phase political parties and groups. Update-IV observation of General Elections (GE) documents district-level political 2018. The purpose of the observation is to alignments and realignments prior to GE contribute to the evolution of an 2018, and includes key observation election process that is free, fair, findings regarding 325 political transparent and accountable, in gatherings held across the country. accordance with the requirements laid out in the Elections Act, 2017. FAFEN Moreover, based on data gathered produces regular updates, information through methodical monitoring of 11 briefs and reports to provide objective, national and regional newspapers, the impartial and evidence-based Update includes information on information regarding the quality of reported incidents of political and electoral and political processes to the electoral violence, and politically- Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), motivated advertisements in the press. political parties, the media, civil society Additional observation findings on organizations and citizens. postings and transfers ahead of GE 2018, The General Elections 2018 Update-IV is and allotment of election symbols are based on observation data gathered also included. 2. RISING PERCEPTION OF PRE-ELECTION INTIMIDATION Interviews with district-level political party representatives suggest that the majority (90% or 658) of party leaders and workers were able to conduct campaign activities in an environment free of intimidation and threats whereas 10% (or 73) felt intimidated by certain actions of political opponents, local influential, police or other Law Enforcement Agencies. The percentage of interviewed politicians who felt intimidated increased from 5% in General Election Update-I (covering the period January to March 2018) to 10% in the current Update. The following graph presents the trajectory of pre-election intimidation claims by party representatives interviewed between January and May, 2018. 1 GENERAL ELECTION 2018 UPDATE-IV - FAFEN Perception of Pre-Election Intimidation (Trend Jan-May 2018) 2500 12% 11% 2000 10% 10% 10% 8% 1500 6% 1000 5% 4% 500 2% 0 0% January to March 2018 April 1 to April 30, 2018 May 1 to May 15, 2018 May 16 to May 31, 2018 Intimidation Claims Claims of intimidation were largely reported from Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan during the observation period -- 42 such claims were reported from Sindh followed by Punjab (23) and Balochistan (8). The following graph shows the regional distribution of responses by interviewed party representatives: 200 187 151 157 150 124 100 42 50 33 23 0 0 8 0 6 0 Khyber FATA Punjab Sindh Balochistan ICT Pakhtunkhwa Leaders/Workers being Intimidated No Intimidation or Threat Received Interviewees who claimed being harassed or intimidated are largely affiliated with parties that are not part of the government in their respective provinces. In Punjab, representatives of the opposition parties Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Pakistan Muslim League (PML), Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Tehreek-e-Labbaik Ya Rasool Allah (TLY) claimed that they were intimated by the police and the Punjab’s government. In Sindh, representatives of MQM Pakistan, Mohajir Qoumi Movement, Pakistan Muslim League – Functional (PML-F), PTI, Jamiat Ulema-e Islam (F) (JUI-F) and Sindh United Party (SUP) claimed to be intimidated by their political opponents and police, while at least 13 respondents said that the provincial government pressurized or harassed their workers and leaders. In Balochistan, Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP, PTI, JUI-F, Balochistan National Party (BNP), National Party (NP) and Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N) representatives claimed being harassed police and tribal influential. However, in a few cases, representatives of provincial ruling parties also claimed being intimidated at some places. For instance, representatives of PML-N interviewed 2 GENERAL ELECTION 2018 UPDATE-IV - FAFEN in Kasur, Lodhran and Pakpattan said they felt intimidated by Law Enforcement Agencies. Similarly, representatives of PPP – the ruling party in Sindh - claimed being intimidated in Khairpur and Nawabshah by their political rival and police. Refer to Annexure-I for a district-wise list of parties whose representatives claimed being intimidated during the pre-election period. The majority of party representatives who felt intimidated alleged that influential persons in their communities used various pressure and harassment tactics, including direct threats to the lives of opponents and terminations or transfers of the relatives of political opponents serving in government departments. A small number of party workers alleged being harassed by the police through registration of fake cases, reopening of old cases against party leaders or other representatives, and detention of party workers by police and other agencies. 3. RELATIVELY PEACEFUL ELECTION CAMPAIGN PERIOD FAFEN’s media monitoring data reveals a total of seven incidents of political and electoral violence reported during the observation period. In comparison to the first fortnight of May 2018 when 28 such incidents were reported, the number of incidents registered a decline during the second half of the month. The most number of political and electoral violence incidents were reported from Sindh (five incidents), while one each was reported from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. The incidents included the shooting of a PPP female worker and employee of the Population Welfare Department in Thatta; injuries to three PML-N workers in Karachi due to firing at their party office; and the detention of two PPP-Shaheed Bhutto workers by police over unknown reasons in Khairpur. Moreover, a former leader of PML-F was injured in a brawl outside his residence in Hyderabad while a senior PTI leader slapped his PML-N counterpart during a live TV show on Geo TV. A prayer leader belonging to JUI-F was shot dead in Quetta. 4. COMPETITIVE ELECTION CAMPAIGN From May 16 to May 31, 2018, FAFEN observed a total of 325 public gatherings of 32 political parties, independent political leaders and groups that are not listed with the ECP. More than one-third of the observed gatherings were held in Punjab (127), followed by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (76), Sindh (52), Balochistan (37), Islamabad Capital Territory (17) and FATA (16). Major political parties, including PML-N, PPP and PTI held the majority of these public gatherings. As GE 2018 approaches, the frequency of public political gatherings has risen, albeit not consistently; from January to March 2018, an average of almost 105 political gatherings were reported during each fortnight whereas 325 such gatherings were 3 GENERAL ELECTION 2018 UPDATE-IV - FAFEN observed during the last fortnight of May, 2018. The graph below presents a comparison of observed political gatherings held during each reporting period. Political Gatherings on Rise 400 325 280 105 January to March 2018 April 1 to April 30 2018 May 1 to May 15 2018 May 16 to May 31 2018 (Average per Fortnight) (Average per Fortnight) 4.1 Types of Political Gathering During the reporting period, political parties organized various types of political gatherings, largely campaigning events, ranging from small-scale corner meetings (107) to large-scale jalsas (97) in various towns across the four provinces, Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Corner meetings figured most prominently in Punjab (58) and Balochistan (18), while most of the observed jalsas were organized in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (37) and Punjab (33). As the observation time period coincided with Ramadan, political gatherings also took the form of Iftar parties (25). Moreover, political parties arranged rallies (17), protests/sit-ins (14) as well as press conferences (20) to convey political messages. The following graph illustrates the regional distribution of different types of political gatherings observed by FAFEN during the reporting period: 58 37 33 18 18 14 14 13 10 12 9 8 6 6 5 8 5 6 6 1 3 3 2 1 3 3 4 1 3 2 1 1 4 2 2 3 Khyber FATA ICT Punjab Sindh Balochistan Pakhtunkhwa Iftar Party Corner Meeting Dharna Jalsa Other Political Gathering Press Conference Protest/Sit-in Rally 4 GENERAL ELECTION 2018 UPDATE-IV - FAFEN 4.2 Objective/s of Political Gatherings The majority of observed political gatherings (62% or 202) were political events intended to mobilize voters ahead of the General Elections. Nearly six percent or 21 gatherings took place in the form of protests against various political figures and/or government institutions. Among these, nine protests were against a controversial statement by PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif regarding the 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai. These protests were arranged by PTI, Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan (JI) and Pakistan Sunni Tehreek (PST) in various cities of Punjab, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. PTI organized a protest against Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) in Lower Dir while
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