MARKET WATCH Weekly Market Data Analysis

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TASMANIAN MARKET WATCH Weekly Market Data Analysis

Week 31: 29 July 2018 to 4 August 2018 (Sunday - Saturday) Week at a Glance

Average Price (Vol Weighted) 30.26 $/MWh 31

Median Price 28.07 $/MWh 30 Average Price last year 111.67 $/MWh 29 NEM Average Price (excl. Tas) 68.47 $/MWh Week % of time Price <$50/MWh 84.2 % 28

Storage 6572 GWh 0 20 40 60 80 Percentage Full 45.4 % Average Price ($/MWh) - past 4 weeks Compared to last week 204  GWh Max Demand 1594 MW Week Min Demand 994 MW 31 0.0 68.1 Average Demand 1270 MW 30 0.0 73.3 Weekly Energy Demand 240.96 GWh 29 1.1 62.7 Import Basslink Total Export 68.15 GWh 28 1.9 55.7 Export Total Import 0.00 GWh -20 0 20 40 60 80 % time counter price flow 15.8 % Basslink Import/Export (GWh) - past 4 weeks Total FCAS Costs (Tas) 162.08 $1000s Tasmanian Demand & Basslink flow during the week BL Import Tasmanian Generation Tasmanian Demand 2 500

2 000

1 500

1 000 Demand/BL flow (MW)flow Demand/BL

500

0 29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Jul 1 Aug 2 Aug 3 Aug 4 Aug

Water Storage Situation 8 000 (as at Monday 30 July 2018) 7 000 System NHW Beginning of this week (GWh) 6572 522 6 000 Percentage full 45.4% 84.8% Beginning of last week (GWh) 6368 486 5 000 Change from last week (GWh) 3%  7%  4 000

Compared to last year (GWh) 22%  72%  (GWh) Storage 3 000 Generation Hydro Generation (incl. exports) 281.44 GWh 2 000 Gas Generation 0.00 GWh 1 000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Wind Generation 27.67 GWh 0 NHW - Northern Head Waters 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 TM Sources: Hydro Tasmania/NEM-Review Week

Compiled by OTTER Page 1 Week 31 (29 July 2018 - 04 August 2018) Fact Sheet Compiled using information from NEM-ReviewTM and AEMO published data Market Price This week Last week Change Average Price (Volume weighted) $/MWh 30.26 28.63 UP by 5.7% Median Price $/MWh 28.07 29.74 DOWN by 5.6% Maximum Price $/MWh 129.80 90.68 Minimum Price $/MWh -0.90 -0.86 % of intervals price was below $50/MWh % 84.2% 94.6%

Recorded max weekly Avg since 29.4.06 $/MWh 406.10 Week 25/2009 Recorded min weekly Avg since 29.4.06 $/MWh 0.46 Week 6/2010

Demand Occurrence Maximum Demand during the week MW 1594 02 August 2018 8:30 AM Minimum Demand during the week MW 994 01 August 2018 1:30 AM Average Demand during the week MW 1270 % weekly generation by source Weekly System Load Factor (LF) % 79.65% Gas * 0.0 Winter Average LF (Jun 17 - Aug 17) % 74.42% Basslink 0.0 Weekly Energy Demand GWh 240.96 Hydro 91.0 Wind 9.0 (Basslink + Gas) Share % 0.00% 0 50 100 * represents output from TVPS Recorded maximum peak for 2018 MW 1643 28 June 2018 Recorded maximum peak to date MW 1760 11 August 2008

Basslink Export Import Net/Total Total Export/Import GWh 68.15 0.00 Net Export 68.15 Max flow during export/import MW 478 0 Inter-regional revenue generated* $1000s 2161.18 0.00 2161.18 Max +ve price differential observed $/MWh 239.14 0.00 Max -ve price differential observed $/MWh -23.50 0.00 No of intervals of counter price flow 53 0 % time of counter price flow % 15.77% 0.0% 15.8% No-go zone flows (% of total MWh flows) % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% * Losses in the link are not considered in the calculation of residues.

FCAS Costs Tasmania Mainland Total NEM Total FCAS costs $1000s 162.08 3170.05 3332.13 % of Total Energy Costs % 2.51% 1.31% 1.34% Cost of Lower Services $1000s 31.56 141.03 172.59 % of Total Energy Costs % 0.49% 0.06% 0.07% Cost of Raise Services $1000s 130.52 3029.01 3159.54 % of Total Energy Costs % 2.02% 1.25% 1.27%

Price Spikes in Tasmania (when price was > 3 x Weekly Average) Weekly Average = $30.26/MWh The spot price in Tasmania reached more than three times the weekly average on 2 occasion during the week.

Demand and Price Profiles of the week - Tasmania Demand Price 1800 140

120 1600 100 1400

80 MW

1200 60 $/MWh

40 1000 20 800 0

600 - 20 30-Jul-18 31-Jul-18 01-Aug-18 02-Aug-18 03-Aug-18 04-Aug-18

Compiled by OTTER Page 2 Week 31 (29 July 2018 - 04 August 2018) Other Market News and Trends Compared to last week, average spot prices for the week decreased in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, but increased in Tasmania. Weekly average volume weighted spot prices ranged between $30.26/MWh in Tasmania and $73.56/MWh in New South Wales. Tasmanian spot prices were mostly below $75/MWh during the week.

Turnover in the energy market was $248.10 million (turnover in the Tasmanian region was $6.45 million). The total cost of ancillary services for the week was $3.33 million or 1.34% of energy market turnover. Tasmanian contribution to total FCAS costs was 5%.

Weekly Average prices in the NEM ($/MWh) Price Distribution within the week (Tasmania) Last week 100% 120 90%

80% 100 Occurrence 70% % below the range 60% 80

50% Occurrence (%) Occurrence 40% 60

30% 21.1% 20.8%18.8% 20% 40 11.6% 11.9%13.7% 10% 1.5%0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20

<10

31-40 11-20 21-30 41-50 51-75 >5000

76-100 0

101-150 151-200 201-500 501-5000 QLD NSW VIC SA TAS Price Range ($/MWh) Market snapshot Hydro Tasmania weekly generator output by catchment area 600

500

400

300 MW

200

100

Pieman/Anthony King/Lake Margaret Mersey Forth Gordon Derwent Great Lake/South Esk This chart is not comprehensive and excludes data from some generators. Pieman/Anthony catchment area includes Bastyan, Mackintosh, Reece and Tribute Power Stations. King/Lake Margaret catchment area includes John Butters Power Station. Mersey Forth catchment area includes Cethana, Devil's Gate, Fisher and Lemonthyme Power Stations. Gordon catchment area includes Gordon Power Station. Derwent catchment area includes Catagunya, Lake Echo, Meadowbank, Tarraleah and Tungatinah Power Stations. Great Lake/South Esk catchment area includes Poatina and Trevallyn Power Stations. Compiled by OTTER Page 3 Week 31 (29 July 2018 - 04 August 2018) Tasmanian rainfall for the week

Map showing rainfall (mm) for the week over Hydro catchment areas.

Compiled by OTTER Page 4 Week 31 (29 July 2018 - 04 August 2018) Wholesale Electricity Market Contract Regulation

To help you understand the information in this section refer to the Regulator's Wholesale Pricing page available here.

Approved financial contract offer prices for 31 July 2018

140

120

100

$/MWh 60

0 Q418 Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120 Q220 Q320 Contract quarter - calendar years Cap Peak swap Base load swap Load following swap

Traffic Light Indicators

The traffic light indicators advise market participants of the remaining availability of regulated contracts in each of the eight forward quarters in which Hydro Tasmania is required to offer regulated contracts. For more information on the role of the traffic light indicators refer to the Market Watch Readers Guide available here

Traffic light indicators as at 31 July 2018 Active Contract Capacity Energy Quarter Q418 1 1 Yes Q119 1 1 Yes Q219 1 1 Yes Q319 3 3 Yes Q419 3 3 Yes Q120 3 3 Yes Q220 3 3 Yes Q320 3 3 Yes

Key: 3 Significant head room (>130MW of capacity, >200GWh of energy) still available 2 Limited head room (0-130MW of capacity, 0-200GWh of energy) available 1 No head room available

Disclaimer: Although this report has been prepared in good faith using information and reports publicly available from web sites and other sources, the Office of the Tasmanian Economic Regulator assumes no liability as to the reliability and accuracy of the information provided. Readers should refer to the 'Guide to reading Market Watch' for definitions of terms and an overview of the data and charts used in this weekly bulletin.

Compiled by OTTER Page 5 Week 31 (29 July 2018 - 04 August 2018)