manawatustandard.co.nz SPORT WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 22, 2012 13 Science says size Geek’s theories helped All Blacks to win COMMENT Between them they changed the started about looking carefully at sensitive. Fair enough. Mark Reason world of sport. Beane’s personal total contribution.’’ The tackle is a good way to matters in humiliations had turned him into a DePodesta maintained that understand some of Quarrie’s film called Moneyball has believer. ‘‘error’’ by itself is a false construct. analysis. just been released in New He didn’t care how good a player You have to look at process more Does a tackle produce slow ball World Cup Zealand. It’s the story of looked. He had been there himself than outcome. For example the for the opposition? Does the tackle Ahow Brad Pitt helped the and he had failed. DePodesta was defender who never puts himself in create a dominant position for the All Blacks win the Rugby World the Harvard man who carried the position to make many tackles will defence by putting the tackled success Cup. It’s the story of how geeks, new testament on his personal have a low ‘‘error’’ count. But his player on his back? Does the tackler computers and statistical analysis computer. contribution to the team will be low. hit his man over the gain line? Does RUGBY revolutionised professional sport. He proved that the old baseball Smith continues: ‘‘We needed our he produce turnover ball? A few years ago a writer called scriptures were bunk. The hitters own Paul DePodesta and we found Conrad Smith, for example, is Fans who say the modern game is Michael Lewis became interested in who controlled the strike zone, the him. particularly good at making tackles being dominated more and more by a baseball team called the Oakland hitters with the highest on-base ‘‘Ken Quarrie has a Phd in that produce turnover ball. But due heftier, iron-pumping players can A’s. percentage, the hitters who drew statistics. He had read Moneyball. to his size Smith was initially point to scientific evidence to back The A’s should have been walks, they were the men. It didn’t He added great value to our rejected by Wellington. It is those their case. anything but. They were ‘‘D’’ list at matter if they looked like a dying selection process. Ken Quarrie is sorts of false assumptions that Teams with the tallest backs and best. But year after year Oakland circus elephant, these men were the rugby’s Paul DePodesta. If the DePodesta and Quarrie are so good heaviest forwards are the likeliest to were able to compete with the best Usain Bolts of baseball. northern hemisphere ever hear at exposing. win the World Cup, according to a and the richest teams in Major Lewis’ book sent shockwaves about him and get their hooks into You also wonder if the old All study by French researchers League Baseball. around the world. him...’’ Blacks would have had the courage published on Tuesday. Lewis wanted to know how a One of them shook the floor under The NZRU certainly kept Quarrie to drop Mils Muliaina and play the Adrien Sedeaud, of the Institute of bunch of goofballs, paid peanuts, Wayne Smith’s desk. The then All under wraps during the World Cup. World Cup with a raw back three of Sports Biomedicine and Epidemi- were able to take on the swish Blacks assistant coach had always Inspired by book: Former assistant All Black coach Wayne Smith is a I wanted to speak to Quarrie Israel Dagg, Cory Jane and Richard ology in Paris, collected data on the millionaires of America’s game. been interested in statistical disciple of the DePodesta method of statistical analysis. Photo: GETTY IMAGES during the tournament about Kahui. age, weight and height of 2692 The answer was a failed baseball analysis. He had helped set up the Moneyball and his processes with I would bet Quarrie’s analysis and players who took part in World Cup Adonis called Billy Beane, aka Pitt, Verusco system in the ’90s. Smith says: ‘‘Back then we were qualifying the process by asking the All Blacks, but the NZRU DePodesta’s theories contributed to matches between 1987 and 2007, and and a thin, pale nerd by the name of What if the All Blacks could find using raw data, like tackles made how effective the tackle was. Once I refused permission. the shrewd bravery of that selection compared this with their team’s per- Paul DePodesta. their own Paul DePodesta? and tackles missed. Then we started read Moneyball the seed of an idea The information was too decision. Fairfax NZ formance. The players were divided into 1457 (numbers one to eight) forwards and 1235 (nine to 15) backs. Throughout the 20-year period under study, the weight of all players progressively increased by more than 6.6 kilograms. Cup is ‘ultimate In height, forwards were 0.6 centi- metres taller over 20 years, and backs 1.09cm. But the difference was startling among the teams that reached the quarters, semis and finals. On average, forwards and backs endorsement’ among these high-performing sides were some two kilos heavier than the other teams. ‘‘They will be jumping they’ll be up to the chal- Their backs were taller by around Deans sees strong season for joy at being able to lenge,’’ he said. 2cm, although there was little height sleep in their own bed,’’ ‘‘I went up there yester- difference among forwards. ahead for newly confident Kiwi Deans said. day and they haven’t stood Bigger did not mean fatter, ‘‘Last year they didn’t still, they’ve continued to though. A more intense training contenders have a single home game raise the bar in terms of regimen and rigorous nutritional and yet they got so close to how they prepare and sup- regimen led to more muscle, for RUGBY winning the title. It was a port their playing group, speed and strength, over the two David Long pretty impressive effort. which is a good indicator. decades. ‘‘They’ll obviously enjoy ‘‘They will obviously be The change in size began with the Wallabies coach is being around family and inspired to retain that title. advent of professionalism in 1995, predicting the New Zealand franchises will friends. Also their fans They’ve had a taste of it, which created a high-intensity sport still be on a high for this year’s Super will enjoy it, they had been they’ve clearly enjoyed it with more rucks, mauls and tackles Rugby season because of last year’s World waiting a long time for the and their public enjoyed it. per game among its forwards, says Cup success. World Cup and essentially I fully expect they’ll be the paper. The mastermind behind five Super Rug- it bypassed them, they there at the end.’’ Yet the more mobile game has by titles before he left to coach didn’t get to see any rugby, Because of his time at also required greater endurance and believes there will be a new confidence in so they’ll enjoy it and that Robbie Deans the Crusaders, Deans was speed among its backs, it says. the five Kiwi teams. enthusiasm will rub off on asked if it becomes easier ‘‘The maximisation of builds and ‘‘There is nothing like the ultimate en- the team I suspect.’’ to win titles after getting that first victory. the quest for ‘supersizes’ are in- dorsement and I guess that’s what they’ve As for his former assistant, Mark He said he felt that it was. herent to international-level rugby had,’’ Deans said yesterday of the New Zea- Hammett, who will take charge of his new, ‘‘There is no doubt that success does as in other sports,’’ it says. land rugby franchises. raw-looking Hurricanes for the second breed success when you reinforce the The 2011 World Cup, which is not ‘‘They’ve had the endorsement that year, Deans acknowledged that it could be things that worked for you in the first in- covered in the study, had a final they’re the best players in the world so a tough season for them. stance and don’t take it for granted,’’ he with two teams that were almost they’ll bring that belief with them. ‘‘They will be like the Brumbies, they’ll said. ‘‘Also that you know that there are identical in terms of pack weight. ‘‘It is two-fold; one is that it gives them be hungry as hell,’’ he said. other teams out there who are in a position France’s forwards weighed 903kg, the confidence to play, but it also give them ‘‘They’ve got a good leader in Conrad that you were once in and want what and New Zealand’s 902kg. New Zea- the confidence to guts it out and believe Smith, which was a particularly good ap- you’ve got. land edged France by a single point, that they’ll actually prevail.’’ pointment. ‘‘As long as you bring that mentality for- 8-7. Deans, 52, was yesterday giving his ‘‘They will be passionate and committed ward and keep striving for those self im- However, size is not everything. thoughts on the season ahead and while and I hope for Hammer’s sake that he gets provements, then success breeds success Winning teams also had more col- his main focus is on how the Australian a clean run at it, but it won’t be easy.’’ and players love being a part of a success- lective experience among their teams go, he did say he was pleased for the Deans sees the Sharks and Stormers as ful team and everything that makes that forwards, determined as the per- people of Christchurch that they’ll be able being the strongest South African sides, up. centage of players who had played to see their beloved Crusaders in the city but he feels the Reds will be the team for ‘‘That’s particularly true when you’ve in previous World Cups. once more. everyone to beat. come from a background of lack of success, In teams which hoisted the tro- He also felt that the players will benefit ‘‘The Reds will have a target on their it’s something that players enjoy and it phy, this was nearly 40 per cent, from having home games again. back this year, but I am very confident that becomes self-fulfilling.’’ Fairfax NZ compared with under 32 per cent for other teams. ‘‘Collective experience of forwards gives a clear advantage during phases of collective combat,’’ says Deans tips Reds to again impress the paper, published in the British Journal of Sports Medicine. ‘‘The art of working together, RUGBY and has only just resumed running. ‘‘He’s of no doubt that the adversity he sharing the action either on offence Bogan abroad: The rampaging running of Toby Lynn will not be seen in a New Zealand jersey Adrian Warren ‘‘They’ve got a playing group there that has been through will make him stronger. or defence, is the essence of rugby,’’ this season. Instead he’s part of the Super Rugby lineup. Photo: GETTY IMAGES is more than able to cover for his He’s very intent that he comes back better it said. Wallabies coach Robbie Deans says [Cooper’s] absence,’’ Deans said yesterday. for the experience. He’s only just started Only four teams – New Zealand, defending Super Rugby champions ‘‘They will tweak the way they approach running again, so there’s a lot of hurdles Australia, South Africa and England Queensland will be more dangerous and their work, but that will also make them he’s got to clear without a setback but the – have ever won the global trophy, less predictable without , more dangerous because they will develop early indications are very good.’’ an elite group that indicates that Lynn now an Ocker who he tips to bounce back from a trau- different approaches that, in time, will Deans also believed the Waratahs were there are intangible factors in suc- matic World Cup. make them less predictable.’’ looking better than last year. cess, says Sedeaud. Deans is confident the Reds, which start Deans said he thought Cooper would ‘‘They are missing a couple of players ‘‘Winning teams in a Rugby World their defence against arch-rival New South resume playing before the four June tests, but they’ve got depth, as have the Reds, Cup may also owe their victory to and really loving it Wales in Sydney on Saturday, can handle but did not expect him to be ready for and depth, historically, has been important their nation’s economic, historical, being hunted by the opposition and will games against Scotland and Wales. and when you look at the format this year political and technological invest- feature again at finals time. He was, however, encouraged by it’s going to be a key component,’’ he said. ment in this sport.’’ AFP RUGBY ‘‘I’ve got about 10 mates from St Pauls [Col- They will have to negotiate the first part Cooper’s attitude and determination after He believed the other Australian Super Chris Barclay legiate] in the mines. They’ve cracked on to of their campaign without first five-eighth the adversity of a traumatic World Cup franchises, Western Force, Brumbies and good money over here,’’ said Lynn, who is also Cooper. He suffered a serious knee injury campaign where he performed well below Melbourne Rebels, were capable of giving You can take the boy 5416 kilometres outside destined to operate in the dark places when in the World Cup bronze medal match his best and then was injured. the finals a nudge this season. AAP the Tron’s city limits, but Toby Lynn is still a the Force start their campaign against the Cowan won’t bogan at heart in Australia’s high-octane Brumbies in Canberra on Friday night. boom town. Lynn made the move to WA at the end of jump ship The 27-year-old traded in Hamilton for October, partially because his granddad was as his Super Rugby base for the 2012-13 born there. –manager tournaments and although the climate change That lineage means Lynn is not considered INFASHION has been drastic, there are still reminders of a marquee import – prestige that only fits a autumn/winter 2011 the Waikato to prevent homesickness – bearded straggly-haired forward like, say, 1970s RUGBY though not earache. Sebastien Chabal – so he is considered an REVISITS It didn’t take Lynn long to discover the adopted Aussie, and potential Wallaby. CHUNKY INFASHION Speculation linking Southland and Perth Motorplex at Kwinana Beach produces And after 72 games for Waikato and 32 for KNITSTS All Black halfback Jimmy Cowan the same decibel levels as the Meremere the Chiefs the future dry stock farmer had no with a move overseas appears to be Dragway off SH1. hesitation in prolonging his career at one of INFASHION spring/summerspring/summ MANAWATUSTANDARD’SPOPULARFASHIONMAG premature. The V8 Supercars also roar around Australia’s three struggling franchises. SURFERFER 2012 er The 29-year-old, who is off con- Barbagello just like they do in Hamilton, Dave Rennie taking over at the Chiefs never tract with the New Zealand Rugby though ideally Lynn will be in Bloemfontein prompted any second thoughts, indeed Lynn Union at the end of the year, has when Ford versus Holden is played out on would have been a Force player last season INFASHION been linked with several overseas May 6. had he not been contractually bound to the WIN Don’t miss ’s coverage of this season’s collections and latest looks for clubs including Lyon, Munster and True, Lynn has been separated from his NZRU. a $5$550550+ makeover package Autumn/Winter 2012. Join us as we take you to the front row of fashion and PAGEGE 7 Gloucester. labour of love – the Valiant Charger on blocks By leaving Waikato Stadium he has missed present the must-have season essentials in a magazine style tabloid. However, Cowan’s manager, Tom in his garage back home – but a Falcon XR6 an opportunity to experience the Sonny Bill ZESTZZEE FORFOF LIFESSTT OORR LLIIFEF Downey, said last night that the No 9 still gets him where he needs to be, the West- Williams circus at close quarters, though the HIPPYHHI E Advertise to our 43,000* readers (on a typical day) in the greater Manawatu was committed to seeing out his ern Force’s headquarters at NIB Stadium. alternative is working with Wallabies IPPPPY SHAKESSHHAKA term and then he would be in the ‘‘I’m not really missing home too much at phenomenon . KE area through the region’s only daily newspaper. PRINTSPPRPRIRRIINNTNTSTST same position as any other player the moment,’’ said Lynn, as he marvelled at They were on the same team for the first S INFASHION reaches Manawatu’s most affluent and style conscious approaching the end of a contract. another clear blue sky over East Perth. time when the Force played their final trial residents.

3922883A33939229222228 Cowan has played 94 games for ‘‘When you wake up it’s in the 30s, not bad against the Reds and Lynn was glad to have 8888333AAAA Be quick as space is limited. ADVERTISINGAADADVDVD FEATURE the Highlanders and could bring up when you look back at the summer’s back the flanker alongside. VEVEERRTRTTISING FEA ISSISINGS NG FEAT GGFGFE FEATFEATUFEFEATUEAAATUAT TTUURREE the century against the Melbourne home. It’s a nice place to live alright.’’ ‘‘A few times there, you realise how good he Advertising positions to suit every budget. Rebels in Invercargill next month, Lynn and his partner Karen live practically is. He makes a tackle and he’s up before the first Southland player to do so. next door to the WACA so the downtime in- you’ve even bloody seen it. It’s pretty awe- To be ‘INFASHION’ call: He has played the same number of corporated into the Force’s 16-week rigorous some having him there and with Sharpie games for Southland, but his All pre-season regime was often spent watching having his last season . . . he’s probably the BOOKING DEADLINE: SUE WILSON Black commitments have kept that the appropriately named Scorchers in the Big best lock going around now [Victor] Matfield’s tally down in the past two years. Bash. retired.’’ Wednesday 22 February 2012 Tel: 06 355 8772 Cowan, who has been capped 51 ‘‘The drag racing’s pretty good too. I’m a bit Although Nathan Sharpe was only a bit part PUBLICATION DATE: M: 027 498 1436 times by the All Blacks, is keen to of a bogan at heart so I like to have a look at player at the World Cup, the Wallabies centur- follow in the sprig marks of good Kwinana.’’ ion will be sought after by Lynn at training. Wednesday 21 March 2012 E: [email protected] friend Jason Rutledge and become Lynn couldn’t have picked an Australasian ‘‘He’s played 150 Super games, 100 tests so 4347505AA Southland rugby’s 11th centurion if destination further from the spiritual home he’s got a fair bit up top. He’s in charge of the he doesn’t get selected for this year’s though he soon discovered he’s not the only lineouts so it’s good to get a different perspec- *Nielsen Consumer and Media Insights Survey Q2 2010-Q2 2011 Base: All 15+ All Black programme. Fairfax NZ Mooloo man to go west and seek his fortune. tive on that sort of stuff.’’ Fairfax NZ