Moneyball Has Believer

13 WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 22, 2012 sensitive. Fair enough. SPORT The tackle is a good way to understand some of Quarrie’s started about looking carefully at analysis. total contribution.’’ Does a tackle produce slow ball DePodesta maintained that for the opposition? Does the tackle ‘‘error’’ by itself is a false construct. create a dominant position for the You have to look at process more defence by putting the tackled than outcome. For example the player on his back? Does the tackler defender who never puts himself in hit his man over the gain line? Does position to make many tackles will he produce turnover ball? manawatustandard.co.nz have a low ‘‘error’’ count. But his Conrad Smith, for example, is particularly good at making tackles Between them they changed the contribution to the team will be low. Smith continues: ‘‘We needed our that produce turnover ball. But due Geek’s theoriesworld of sport. Beane’s personal helped All Blacks to win own Paul DePodesta and we found to his size Smith was initially Science humiliations had turned him into a rejected by Wellington. It is those him. Moneyball. believer. ‘‘Ken Quarrie has a Phd in sorts of false assumptions that COMMENT has He didn’t care how good a player Mark Reason statistics. He had read DePodesta and Quarrie are so good Moneyball looked. He had been there himself says size film called He added great value to our at exposing. and he had failed. DePodesta was just been released in New selection process. Ken Quarrie is You also wonder if the old All the Harvard man who carried the Zealand. It’s the story of rugby’s Paul DePodesta. If the Blacks would have had the courage new testament on his personal matters in how Brad Pitt helped the northern hemisphere ever hear to drop Mils Muliaina and play the computer. World Cup with a raw back three of A He proved that the old baseball about him and get their hooks into All Blacks win the Rugby World him...’’ Israel Dagg, Cory Jane and Richard World Cup Cup. It’s the story of how geeks, scriptures were bunk. The hitters The NZRU certainly kept Quarrie Kahui. who controlled the strike zone, the computers and statistical analysis under wraps during the World Cup. I would bet Quarrie’s analysis and revolutionised professional sport. hitters with the highest on-base I wanted to speak to Quarrie DePodesta’s theories contributedFairfax to NZ A few years ago a writer called percentage, the hitters who drew success during the tournament about the shrewd bravery of that selection walks, they were the men. It didn’t and his processes with Michael Lewis became interested in Moneyball decision. matter if they looked like a dying a baseball team called the Oakland Photo: GETTY IMAGES the All Blacks, but the NZRU RUGBY circus elephant, these men were the A’s. refused permission. Fans who say the modern game is The A’s should have been Usain Bolts of baseball. Former assistant All Black coach Wayne Smith is a The information was too anything but. They were ‘‘D’’ list at Lewis’ book sent shockwaves being dominated more and more by qualifying the process by asking best. But year after year Oakland around the world. Inspired by book: heftier, iron-pumping players can how effective the tacklethe seed was. of an Once idea I were able to compete with the best One of them shook the floor under disciple of the DePodesta method of statistical analysis. point to scientific evidence to back read Moneyball and the richest teams in Major Wayne Smith’s desk. The then All their case. Smith says: ‘‘Back then we were Teams with the tallest backs and League Baseball. Blacks assistant coach had always using raw data, like tackles made heaviest forwards are the likeliest to Lewis wanted to know how a been interested in statistical and tackles missed. Then we started win the World Cup, according to a bunch of goofballs, paid peanuts, analysis. He had helped set up the study by French researchers were able to take on the swish Verusco system in the ’90s. What if the All Blacks could find published on Tuesday. millionaires of America’s game. Adrien Sedeaud, of the Institute of The answer was a failed baseball their own Paul DePodesta? Sports Biomedicine and Epidemi- Adonis called Billy Beane, aka Pitt, ology in Paris, collected data on the and a thin, pale nerd by the name of age, weight and height of 2692 Paul DePodesta. Cup is ‘ultimate players who took part in World Cup they’ll be up to the chal- matches between 1987 and 2007, and lenge,’’ he said. compared this with their team’s per- ‘‘I went up there yester- formance. day and they haven’t stood The players were divided into 1457 still, they’ve continued to (numbers one to eight) forwards and ‘‘They will be jumping raise the bar in terms of 1235 (nine to 15) backs. for joy at being able to how they prepare and sup- Throughout the 20-year period endorsement’ sleep in their own bed,’’ port their playing group, under study, the weight of all Deans said. which is a good indicator. players progressively increased by Deans sees strong season ‘‘Last year they didn’t ‘‘They will obviously be more than 6.6 kilograms. have a single home game inspired to retain that title. In height, forwards were 0.6 centi- ahead for newly confident Kiwi and yet they got so close to They’ve had a taste of it, metres taller over 20 years, and winning the title. It was a they’ve clearly enjoyed it backs 1.09cm. pretty impressive effort. and their public enjoyed it. But the difference was startling Super Rugby contenders ‘‘They’ll obviously enjoy I fully expect they’ll be among the teams that reached the being around family and there at the end.’’ quarters, semis and finals. RUGBY friends. Also their fans Because of his time at On average, forwards and backs David Long will enjoy it, they had been the Crusaders, Deans was among these high-performing sides waiting a long time for the asked if it becomes easier were some two kilos heavier than Wallabies coach Robbie Deans is World Cup and essentially Robbie Deans the other teams. predicting the New Zealand franchises will it bypassed them, they to win titles after getting that first victory. Their backs were taller by around still be on a high for this year’s Super didn’t get to see any rugby, Rugby season because of last year’s World He said he felt that it was. 2cm, although there was little height so they’ll enjoy it and that ‘‘There is no doubt that success does difference among forwards. Cup success. enthusiasm will rub off on Bigger did not mean fatter, The mastermind behind five Super Rug- breed success when you reinforce the the team I suspect.’’ things that worked for you in the first in- though. A more intense training by titles before he left to coach Australia As for his former assistant, Mark regimen and rigorous nutritional believes there will be a new confidence in stance and don’t take it for granted,’’ he Hammett, who will take charge of his new, said. ‘‘Also that you know that there are regimen led to more muscle, for the five Kiwi teams. raw-looking Hurricanes for the second speed and strength, over the two ‘‘There is nothing like the ultimate en- other teams out there who are in a position year, Deans acknowledged that it could be that you were once in and want what decades. dorsement and I guess that’s what they’ve a tough season for them. The change in size began with the had,’’ Deans said yesterday of the New Zea- you’ve got. ‘‘They will be like the Brumbies, they’ll ‘‘As long as you bring that mentality for- advent of professionalism in 1995, land rugby franchises. be hungry as hell,’’ he said. ward and keep striving for those self im- which created a high-intensity sport ‘‘They’ve had the endorsement that ‘‘They’ve got a good leader in Conrad provements, then success breeds success with more rucks, mauls and tackles they’re the best players in the world so Smith, which was a particularly good ap- per game among its forwards, says they’ll bring that belief with them. and players love being a part of a success- pointment. ful team and everything that makes that the paper. ‘‘It is two-fold; one is that it gives them ‘‘They will be passionate and committed Yet the more mobile game has the confidence to play, but it also give them up. and I hope for Hammer’s sake that he gets ‘‘That’s particularly true when you’ve also required greater endurance and the confidence to guts it out and believe Fairfax NZ a clean run at it, but it won’t be easy.’’ come from a background of lack of success, speed among its backs, it says. that they’ll actually prevail.’’ Deans sees the Sharks and Stormers as ‘‘The maximisation of builds and Deans, 52, was yesterday giving his it’s something that players enjoy and it being the strongest South African sides, becomes self-fulfilling.’’ the quest for ‘supersizes’ are in- thoughts on the season ahead and while but he feels the Reds will be the team for herent to international-level rugby his main focus is on how the Australian everyone to beat.

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