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ABC NEWS POLL: CAMPAIGN TRACKING #3 – 10/5/04 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 6, 2004

Bush-Kerry Race Narrows, Raising Stakes for Next Debate

The race for the nudged closer in the latest ABC News tracking poll, with solidifying his base coming out of the first presidential debate last week. The tighter contest raises the stakes for the next Bush-Kerry debate Friday night.

Forty-nine percent of likely voters now favor George W. Bush, 47 percent Kerry and one percent , compared with 51-45-1 percent in yesterday’s tracking poll. The poll is based on a rolling three-day average of survey results, with interviews for the latest sample completed last night.

While the change is slight, and within the margin of sampling error, it moves what had been a Bush lead into a closer race, and puts him below 50 percent, for the first time since the Republican convention. It occurred in part because Kerry has reversed Democratic party defections: He’d been losing more Democrats to Bush than Bush had been losing Republicans to Kerry. Now their defections are about even; eight percent of Democrats prefer Bush, while seven percent of Republicans back Kerry.

60%

52% 51% 51% 51% 50% 50% 49% 48% 49% 47% 48% 47% 46% 45% 46% 45% 43% 40%

The 2004 Election Among Likely Voters 30% ABC News and ABC/Washington Post polls

20% Bush Kerry Nader 10%

2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 7/25/04 8/1/04 8/29/04 9/8/04 9/26/04 10/3/04 10/4/04 10/5/04

Minor defections are normal; it becomes trouble when a candidate loses his base disproportionately. In 2000 there was only a slight gap: Bush won 11 percent of Democrats while got eight percent of Republicans. In 1988, by contrast, lost 17 percent of Democrats, while winning only eight percent of Republicans.

There are about even numbers of Democrats and Republicans in this survey – 37 percent of likely voters are Democrats, 36 percent Republicans. Independents, 23 percent of respondents, are dividing close to evenly: 48 percent for Bush, 45 percent for Kerry.

BASE – Kerry’s better showing in his base fits with a shift in underlying views after the first Bush-Kerry debate. As reported, Kerry got an eight-point boost in the number of his supporters who are “very enthusiastic” about his candidacy, as well as an improved favorability rating. Strong enthusiasm among Bush supporters, on the other hand, dropped eight points after the first debate.

The change in this poll occurred mainly among men, where Bush now leads by 51-45 percent, compared with a double-digit advantage previously. The two are even among women, at 48 percent support each. In 2000, by contrast, Bush won men by 11 points and Al Gore won women by the same margin.

VEEP DEBATE – As reported previously, debate watchers in a separate ABC News poll last night picked as the vice presidential debate winner by an eight-point margin, 43 to 35 percent, with 19 percent calling it a tie. Three factors helped him: Republicans disproportionately tuned in (38 percent of viewers were Republicans, 31 percent Democrats); Bush supporters were more apt to say Cheney won than Kerry supporters were to say Edwards won; and independents were very narrowly (five points) more apt to say Cheney won.

The audience for the first presidential debate, by contrast, was evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, 35 percent apiece. There have been partisan differences in audiences before; in the second presidential debate in 2000, the audience was more Republican by 40-31 percent. In a survey of debate watchers, part of winning includes getting people on your side to watch.

As is usually the case, candidate support among debate watchers did not immediately change last night – they were about evenly divided before and after the debate. There was, similarly, no immediate change in vote choice after the first presidential debate, which viewers, by a nine-point margin, said Kerry won. When debates have an effect, it tends to be more gradual and subtle than immediate. Kerry’s accomplishment in the first debate was to improve his personal appeal and the enthusiasm of his supporters. His effort Friday will be to build on those; Bush’s, to knock them back.

ECONOMY– Domestic issues are expected to be a focus of this week’s presidential debate, with the economy one likely point of contention. It’s been one of the three top- cited voting issues all year (along with and Iraq), but its impact remains unclear.

Likely voters in this survey are evenly split, 30-30 percent, on whether they’ve gotten better off or worse off financially since Bush became president – ’s famous question in the 1980 election. By contrast fewer said they were better off – 22 percent, with 32 percent worse off – in the summer of 1992, as Bush’s father headed toward defeat.

In this election, by more than 8-1, those who are better off prefer Bush and those who are worse off choose Kerry. The tipping point may be the four in 10 voters who say they’re the same financially; they edge slightly toward Bush by 52-45 percent.

100% Vote by Financial Situation

90% Since Bush Took Office 87% 85% ABC News poll

80% Support Bush Support Kerry 70%

60% 52%

50% 45%

40%

30%

20% 10% 10% 10%

0% Better off Same Worse off

Partisanship is a very strong factor in these views. Among Republicans, 49 percent say they’ve gotten better off under Bush, just 10 percent worse off. Among Democrats the numbers are reversed – 52 percent worse off, eight percent better. Independents, in the middle as ever, divide about evenly.

Better off Worse off Same Democrats 8% 52 40 Republicans 49 10 41 Independents 30 29 39

Consumer confidence, as measured in the weekly ABC News/Money magazine poll, also shows vast partisan divides, greater than usual even in an election year. Confidence overall slipped to its lowest in more than three months in this week’s ABC/Money poll, but it’s still well above its low for the year, and far above its 1992 levels.

TAXES and the DEFICIT – Likely voters divide almost evenly on whom they trust more to handle taxes (48-46 percent Bush-Kerry), and Kerry has a small five-point edge over Bush on handling the federal budget deficit, 48-43 percent.

These divisions also are highly partisan. On the deficit, though, fewer Republicans prefer Bush (80 percent) than Democrats trust Kerry (89 percent) – and independents favor Kerry by a nine-point margin. It’s therefore an issue Kerry may try to press Friday night.

An open question, though, is the salience of these and other domestic issues – that is, how important they are to voters in their ultimate decisions. Kerry has consistently done better with voters who cite the economy and health care as their No. 1 issue, as well as with those who choose Iraq. But Bush holds an overwhelming margin among voters who choose terrorism as their top issue. It remains to be seen whether domestic issues can trump terrorism in the voting booth.

GROUPS – There are still minds to be made up between now and the election. As noted, Bush’s margin among men is tighter than it has been in previous tracking, and the two candidates are running evenly among women. Moveables – those who haven’t definitely made up their minds – still make up 14 percent of likely voters, and currently split 44-41 percent for Bush, with five percent for Nader and 10 percent undecided. Likely voters in the so-called battleground states, where candidates’ are spending the bulk of their time and money, give the slight edge to Kerry in this poll, 50-45 percent.

METHODOLOGY - This poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 3-5, 2004 among a random national sample of 1,805 adults, including 1,481 registered voters and 1,155 likely voters. The results have a three-point error margin for the likely voter sample. ABC News and are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

Analysis by Cheryl Arnedt.

ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com at http://abcnews.com/pollvault.html.

Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212) 456-4934, or Lisa Finkel, (212) 456-6190.

Full results follow (*= less than 0.5 percent).

1. How closely are you following the 2004 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No closely closely closely at all opin. 10/5/04 RV 50 38 7 5 * 10/4/04 RV 49 39 7 5 * 10/3/04 RV 48 39 7 5 * 9/26/04 RV 48 39 8 4 1 9/8/04 RV 45 40 10 4 1 8/29/04 RV 43 38 13 7 * 8/1/04 RV 41 39 13 7 * 7/25/04 34 39 15 12 * 7/11/04 36 43 13 7 1 6/20/04 33 45 15 7 * 5/23/04 33 41 17 9 * 4/18/04 30 45 16 9 0 3/7/04 33 42 18 7 * 2/11/04 30 45 15 10 * 1/18/04 22 44 22 13 * 10/29/03 15 39 30 15 0 9/13/03 16 40 27 17 *

2. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

Don't think Already Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote voted No to vote vote 50/50 50/50 (vol.) (vol.) op. 10/5/04 RV 87 7 4 1 1 * * 10/4/04 RV 87 8 4 1 1 * * 10/3/04 RV 87 8 3 1 1 * 1 9/26/04 RV 87 8 4 1 * NA * 9/8/04 RV 87 7 4 1 1 NA * 8/29/04 RV 84 10 4 2 * NA 0 8/1/04 RV 85 9 4 1 1 NA * 7/25/04 RV 85 7 5 2 * NA * 10/29/03 70 12 11 6 1 NA 0

3. (and 3a) If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for (George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans), (John Kerry and , the Democrats), or Ralph Nader and , the independents? Which candidate are you leaning toward?

Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters:

Other Neither Would No Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op. 10/5/04 49 47 1 1 1 0 1 10/4/04 51 45 1 * 1 0 1 10/3/04 51 46 1 * 1 * 1 9/26/04 51 45 1 * 1 0 2 9/8/04 52 43 2 * 1 0 2 8/29/04 48 48 1 * 1 0 2 8/1/04 47 49 2 * 1 0 1 7/25/04 50 46 2 * 1 * 1

Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters:

Other Neither Would No Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op. 10/5/04 50 45 2 * 1 * 2 10/4/04 52 43 2 * 1 * 2 10/3/04 50 45 2 * 1 * 2 9/26/04 51 44 2 1 1 * 2 9/8/04 50 44 2 * 2 * 2 8/29/04 48 47 2 * 1 * 2 8/1/04 44 50 2 * 1 1 2 7/25/04 48 46 3 * 1 * 1 7/11/04 46 46 4 1 2 1 1 6/20/04 44 48 6 * 1 * 1 5/23/04 46 46 4 * 1 1 1 4/18/04 48 43 6 * 2 1 * 3/7/04 44 48 3 * 1 2 2

4. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?

Definitely ---Chance change mind---- No vote NET Good Unlikely opin. Likely voters: 10/5/04 All 87 13 5 7 1 Bush 87 12 5 7 1 Kerry 87 12 4 8 1 10/4/04 All 86 14 6 8 1 Bush 87 12 6 6 1 Kerry 86 13 4 9 1 10/3/04 All 86 12 6 7 1 Bush 88 11 5 6 1 Kerry 86 13 5 8 2 9/26/04 All 88 11 3 8 1 Bush 88 11 3 8 2 Kerry 89 10 2 8 1 Registered voters: 9/26/04 All 82 16 4 12 2 Bush 83 15 5 10 2 Kerry 84 15 3 13 1 9/8/04 All 84 14 6 8 2 Bush 88 11 5 6 1 Kerry 81 16 6 10 3 8/29/04 All 81 18 7 11 1 Bush 82 16 7 10 1 Kerry 81 18 6 12 1 8/1/04 All 80 19 7 12 1 Bush 79 20 7 13 1 Kerry 83 16 5 11 1 7/25/04 All 78 20 7 13 2 Bush 80 19 7 12 1 Kerry 80 18 5 13 2 7/11/04 All 79 21 7 13 1 Bush 78 22 8 14 * Kerry 80 19 7 13 1 6/20/04 All 73 26 12 14 * Bush 80 20 8 12 * Kerry 74 26 12 13 1

5. Who do you trust to do a better job handling (ITEM), (Bush) or (Kerry)?

10/5/04 - Summary Table - Likely Voters

Both Neither No Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op. d. Taxes 48 46 * 4 2 e. The federal budget deficit 43 48 1 5 3

Trend: d. Taxes

Both Neither No Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin. 10/5/04 LV 48 46 * 4 2 9/8/04 RV 50 40 * 5 5

e. The federal budget deficit

Both Neither No Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin. 10/5/04 LV 43 48 1 5 3 6/20/04 44 48 1 5 3 4/18/04 45 46 1 6 2 3/7/04 38 53 2 5 3

6. Would you say you, yourself are better off financially than you were in 2001 when Bush became president, not as well off, or in about the same shape as then financially?

Better off Not as well off About the same No opin. 10/5/04 LV 30 30 40 1 10/29/03 22 27 50 1 9/13/03 21 30 49 * 8/11/03 17 25 58 1

CLINTON* 6/11/00 34 14 50 2 7/19/98 30 15 52 3 3/1/98 32 9 57 1 6/23/96 29 22 49 0 2/27/94 12 17 71 *

BUSH* 8/9/92 22 32 45 1 6/7/92 19 32 49 * 3/11/92 20 33 46 1 2/2/92 19 31 49 * 10/21/91 20 27 53 1 3/4/91 19 18 63 1

REAGAN* 1/16/89 42 18 39 1 1/18/87 37 23 40 1 9/8/86 41 20 39 1

*"...in 1992 when in Clinton became/in 1989 when Bush became/in 1981 when Reagan became..."

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