Final YouGov/Economist poll shows Kerry 3% ahead of Bush

YouGov’s final survey for The Economist on the American presidential election shows John Kerry holding a three point lead over President George W Bush.

YouGov questioned 2,903 American electors between Friday October 29 and Monday November 1. Of these, 2,164 either had already voted (294) or were certain to vote, even if there were “a long line of people waiting to vote” (1,870). Excluding the 20 respondents who refused to say who they supported, or were still making up their minds, support was divided among the main candidates as follows:

John Kerry 50% George Bush 47% Ralph Nader 1% Others 2%

If John Kerry does win narrowly, he can thank a collapse in Ralph Nader’s support. In 2000, Mr Nader won almost 3% of the popular vote. He now looks set to win just 1% this time. Of the 64 members of YouGov’s sample who recalled voting for Mr Nader in 2000, 51 say they will now vote for Senator Kerry – or have already done so. Only 7 have remained loyal to Mr Nader, although he has picked up 17 “votes” from people who did not support him four years ago. Without this switch from Nader to Kerry, our figures indicate that the election would amount to an almost exact rerun of the Bush-Gore contest.

Although our figures mean that John Kerry is more likely to emerge the victor of this year’s elections, this outcome cannot be assured.

1) There is a margin of error of 2% on random samples of this size. This suggests that Senator Kerry should win 48-52% of the national popular vote, while President Bush is set to win 45-49%. So Mr Bush could just win, even if there were no last-minute change of minds among American electors about whether to vote or whom to support.

2) When the candidates are this close, even a slight last-minute swing could easily change the outcome.

3) The result could be determined by the “ground war” that takes place in the final days by both sides as they seek to maximise turnout. If black electors, and young electors, turn out in unprecedented numbers, then this is good news for John Kerry. But if turnout goes up most among older and better-off white voters, then this could give Mr Bush victory.

4) As the 2000 election showed, the candidate who wins the most popular votes might still lose. Al Gore won 540,000 more votes than George Bush, but still ended up with fewer electoral college votes