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OCTOBER 2004 John Parisella CHOOSING AN AMERICAN PRESIDENT: CANADIANS CAN’T BE INDIFFERENT BUT MAY NOT LIKE THE OUTCOME John Parisella The November 2 US presidential election is the first since the events of September 11, 2001, and the outcome is likely to turn on which candidate, George W. Bush or John Kerry, makes the better case for keeping America safe and managing the war in Iraq. While Kerry cruised to the Democratic nomination last winter and spring, that was against a lesser opponent, Howard Dean. The summer and fall have seen a resurgent Bush take a strong lead, while Kerry has had difficulty defining his message and allowed himself to be defined by his opponents. For voters wanting to know what the candidates will do for them in the future, it is frustrating to watch the campaign degenerate into nasty accusations over who did what in the Vietnam War, 35 years ago. With our interests so closely aligned with the US, Canadians cannot be indifferent to the outcome, and aren’t — 61 percent in a Leger Marketing poll in August would support Kerry as against only 16 percent for Bush. Canadians, then, risk being disappointed by the outcome. Political stategist John Parisella, a former chief of staff to Quebec Premier Robert Bourassa, attended both the Democratic and Republican conventions over the summer and was embedded in the Kerry campaign during the primaries. Here is his close-up take on the presidential campaign. L’élection présidentielle du 2 novembre sera la première depuis les attentats du 11 septembre et son vainqueur sera celui qui, de George W. Bush ou de John Kerry, aura convaincu le plus grand nombre de sa capacité de protéger les États-Unis contre le terrorisme et de gérer le conflit irakien. John Kerry a facilement remporté les primaires de l’hiver et du printemps dernier mais c’était contre Howard Dean, un adversaire moins coriace. Or George Bush a refait surface depuis l’été et conquis une solide avance sur Kerry, lequel tarde à définir un message clair et laisse ses rivaux définir son image. Pour les électeurs qui veulent savoir ce que les deux candidats leur réservent, il est décevant de voir la campagne dégénérer en viles accusations sur le rôle qu’ils ont joué il y a 35 ans au Vietnam. Nos intérêts étant étroitement liés à ceux des États-Unis, les Canadiens ne sauraient être indifférents à cette élection et, d’ailleurs, ils ne le sont pas : 61 p. 100 d’entre eux appuieraient John Kerry, selon un sondage Léger Marketing réalisé en août, George Bush ne recueillant que 16 p. 100 d’appuis. Nos compatriotes risquent donc d’être déçus, croit le stratège John Parisella. L’ancien chef de Cabinet de Robert Bourassa a assisté aux deux conventions démocrate et républicaine, suivant de très près les primaires démocrates. Il pronostique ici le dénouement de la campagne présidentielle. ever in the modern history of United States politics the first such election since the tragic events of September has a presidential election garnered so much atten- 11, 2001, altered the course of the Bush presidency. Like it N tion beyond its borders. Incumbent President or not, we have a stake in the outcome. George W. Bush and his vice-president, Dick Cheney, are Three years after 9/11, the United States is involved in a challenged by Democratic Senator John F. Kerry and his run- bloody war in Iraq where over 1000 Americans have lost ning mate, North Carolina Senator John Edwards. This is their lives. The decision to invade Iraq originates with the POLICY OPTIONS 17 OCTOBER 2004 John Parisella so-called Bush doctrine of a pre-emp- iban regime, sympathetic to al-Qaeda, United States has defined the nature of tive strike should America’s security be was approved by the United Nations. the presidential campaign of 2004. threatened. This policy can be attrib- Canada committed troops and Canadi- In the mid-term elections of 2002, uted to the sense of vulnerability creat- ans backed their government in its President Bush registered some impor- ed by the terror of 9/11. The rationale efforts to fight terror alongside the tant gains in Congress and had an for the removal of Saddam Hussein United States government. approval rating of over 60 percent. The from power rested primarily with intel- In the State of the Union address Bush performance in the mid-term ligence reports indicating that Iraq had in January 2002, President Bush identi- elections helped legitimize his presi- weapons of mass destruction (WMD’s) fied three nations (Iran, Iraq and North dency especially in the light of his con- and was friendly with terrorists Korea) as an axis of evil. This reference troversial win in 2000, losing the involved in 9/11. A presidential com- unleashed a policy aimed at acting popular vote to Al Gore, but winning the electoral college in a The unforeseen impact of the candidacy of former Vermont ruling by the US Supreme governor, Howard Dean, who strongly opposed the rush to Court. The unforeseen impact war in Iraq, suddenly transformed the Democratic race for the of the candidacy of former presidential nomination. The eventual nominee, John Kerry, Vermont governor, Howard who had initially supported Bush’s decision to pressure Iraq to Dean, who strongly opposed give up their WMDs or face war, now began to redefine his the rush to war in Iraq, sud- denly transformed the position, arguing for a more multinational and diplomatic Democratic race for the pres- approach. The consequent ambiguity on Kerry’s part has idential nomination. The affected his ability to stay on message ever since. eventual nominee, John Kerry, who had initially sup- mission has since discredited these against anyone who represents a threat ported Bush’s decision to pressure Iraq intelligence reports thereby resulting in to the security of the American people. to give up their WMDs or face war, now a serious credibility gap on the part of While the tragedy of 9/11 conditioned began to redefine his position, arguing the Bush administration on the Iraq much of this policy, the new Bush doc- for a more multinational and diplomat- war in this election year. The question trine represented a significant depar- ic approach. The consequent ambiguity of trust could therefore emerge as a ture from conventional US foreign on Kerry’s part has affected his ability to legitimate concern in the campaign. policy. While there was a Coalition of stay on message ever since. The current presidential campaign the Willing, there was equally a The challenge for Bush is to make is being waged with the issue of security Coalition of the Unwilling, that left the case for a safer America at home by and the war in Iraq in the forefront of many of America’s closest allies, includ- removing threats abroad. His argument the political debate. While America faces ing Canada, opposed to the war and at the Republican National Convention many other important challenges and unconvinced of the reasons for it. was that the world was safer without problems, it is becoming more apparent Saddam Hussein and the Taliban in that the candidate who best succeeds in ince the “mission accomplished” Afghanistan. By cleverly linking his defining his ability to deal with both S celebration on a US aircraft-carrier policies with a post 9/11 world, Bush security at home and the conflict in Iraq in May 2003, the US has lost over 1000 has been able to make some gains on will win the election of November 2. troops with over 6000 injured. his opponent. The question remains: As Canadians, we cannot be indif- Thousands of Iraqis have died and the Will he be able to turn this proposition ferent to the events occurring in the resistance by so-called insurgents and of keeping America safe into the ballot- political world south of the border. In terrorists has intensified in recent box question? If so, he wins. the days following the tragedy of 9/11, weeks. It would appear that the transi- the free world stood with America and tional government of Iraq and the erry successfully wrestled the committed to destroying the architects coalition troops are in for a long haul. K momentum of the Dean cam- of this terror, Osama bin Laden and his While the reaction to 9/11 and the paign by presenting a program of al-Qaeda network. The bipartisan invasion of Afghanistan unified much enhancing America’s respect in the reflexes of the American political class of the free world, the war in Iraq has world, strengthening the economy rose in unison in supporting their pres- done the opposite. Even with current and dealing with crucial social issues ident in his resolve to combat and partners such as Britain, Australia and such as healthcare for the uninsured eliminate world terrorism. Italy, public support for their respective and improving education. His presi- The decision to invade government’s participation in the war dential allure along with his war Afghanistan and overthrow the Tal- has eroded seriously. The effect in the hero status represented a viable 18 OPTIONS POLITIQUES OCTOBRE 2004 Choosing an American president challenge to a commander-in-chief with declining popularity. Throughout most of 2004, Kerry led in the polls or was within the margin of error. Bad headlines from Iraq brought Bush’s ratings down and a less robust eco- nomic recovery gave Kerry ammunition to lead the charge against an incumbent president. Prior to the Republican con- vention, many were seeing the real possi- bility of another one-term Bush presidency.
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