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Chanticleer Holdings, Inc., (NASDAQ: HOTR) Initiation of Coverage Serving up a Unique 'Fast Casual' Growth Opportunity Inve

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Chanticleer Holdings, Inc., (NASDAQ: HOTR) Initiation of Coverage Serving up a Unique 'Fast Casual' Growth Opportunity Inve US Equity Research Chanticleer Holdings, Inc. Chanticleer Holdings, Inc., (NASDAQ: HOTR) Initiation of Coverage Serving Up A Unique ‘Fast Casual’ Growth Opportunity We initiate coverage on Chanticleer Holdings, Inc., (NASDAQ: HOTR) with a price target of $6.00. Chanticleer is a unique speculative growth investment in the fast casual restaurants sector. Investment Highlights Buying this story Stock Details (Feb 6, 2015) It is our opinion that investors in the coming years will see Chanticleer transition into a profitable cash flow generative Exchange NASDAQ franchisee/operator. With its aggressive expansion utilizing both Ticker HOTR organic growth and acquisitions, the Company could reach 100 or more locations in the next 4 years, shareholders should be Sector/Industry Services/Restaurants handsomely rewarded. Chanticleer’s three main drivers are its Stock Price $1.89 growth as a Hooters™ franchisee, its Just Fresh™ chain, The Burger Joint™ and its American Roadside Burger concept. Unlike 52 wk. range $1.40 - $5.23 many of its larger well known peers, the Hooters™ brand is still Shares o/s(mn) 7.24 experiencing international market expansion and Chanticleer’s plan to expand the Just Fresh™ and either The Burger Joint™ or Market Cap(mn) $13.68 American Roadside™ domestically and internationally offers Price Target $6.00 investors an exposure to this growth potential. Leveraging on experience Stock Rating Buy . Key Metrics (in $mn) Chanticleer seems to have a firm grasp on the fast casual market which remains one of the hottest in the restaurant industry. Through acquisitions, the company has created a portfolio of 2013A 2014E 2015E brands centered on healthy fresh food and ‘better burgers, giving Revenue 8,247 31,347 41,240 it diversification across the restaurant sector. Strong acceptance EBITDA (3,984) (2,548) 1,031 from international markets should carry the Hooters brand and also provide an eventual gateway to international franchising of Net Debt 601 11,908 19,777 other concepts and brands. Current 0.3x 0.2x 0.1x Ratio Chanticleer stake in Hooters of America (HOA) Debt/Equity 0.1x 0.7x 1.6x HOTR is the only way to publicly invest in HOA. HOTR controls a 3% ownership in HOA and we estimate Chanticleer’s capital Leverage 1.8x 2.2x 3.5x interest at 1.06% ownership interest. HOA is the Atlanta-based EPS ($0.72) ($0.67) ($0.87) operator and franchiser of over 430 Hooters restaurants in 28 countries, which generate over $1bn of system-wide revenues annually. As reported in the press recently, HOA is currently up for sale and we assume a sale multiple of 7.5x – 8.5x EBITDA, implying a sale price of c. $500mn. We currently value HOTR’s stake at $5mn which alone is more than 36% of its current market cap. We believe that the embedded value of Chanticleer’s interest in HOA is not reflected in Chanticleer’s share price and provides additional upside for investors. Q3 results, a reflection of things to come Restaurant revenue was $9.1mn, an increase of 473.5% y-o-y; Restaurant EBITDA stood at $0.9mn, an increase of 1040.3% y-o-y. The Company saw positive adjusted EDBITA of $0.5mn in Q3 from a loss of 1 US Equity Research Chanticleer Holdings, Inc. $0.4mn in the comparable period in 2013. The Company received a cash dividend related to Chanticleer’s share of its investment in HOA of approx. $0.5mn. Financial Summary Income Statement in USD 000’s 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Revenue 8,247 31,347 41,240 62,579 94,407 125,439 155,178 183,728 EBITDA (3,984) (2,548) 1,031 4,756 11,518 20,321 26,691 37,848 EBIT (4,606) (4,312) (1,548) 1,310 6,998 14,531 19,517 29,179 Net Income / (Loss) (5,214) (4,831) (6,327) (5,461) (1,126) 5,759 11,568 19,350 Balance Sheet in USD 000’s 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Balance Sheet Cash 443 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 10,305 33,328 Current Assets 1,713 2,526 2,619 3,336 4,046 4,749 14,651 38,147 Non-Current Assets 18,374 39,493 42,688 46,126 50,103 53,721 56,634 58,989 Current Liabilities 5,532 13,591 23,915 34,552 31,180 30,444 31,942 36,099 Non-Current 3,317 9,367 8,550 7,421 16,499 15,689 14,960 14,960 Liabilities Total Debt 1,044 12,908 20,777 24,556 24,462 17,411 12,588 11,859 Shareholders’ Equity 11,239 19,062 12,842 7,488 6,469 12,336 24,382 46,077 Key Metrics in USD 000’s 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E EBITDA Margin (48.3%) (8.1%) 2.5% 7.6% 12.2% 16.2% 17.2% 20.6% Key Metrics EBIT Margin (55.9%) (13.8%) (3.8%) 2.1% 7.4% 11.6% 12.6% 15.9% Capex Margin 49.3% 16.0% 14.0% 11.0% 9.0% 7.5% 6.5% 6.0% EPS ($0.72) ($0.67) ($0.87) ($0.75) ($0.16) $0.80 $1.60 $2.67 Net Debt 601 11,908 19,777 23,556 23,462 16,411 2,283 (21,469) Current Ratio 0.3x 0.2x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.2x 0.5x 1.1x P / E (8.8x) (9.5x) (7.2x) (8.4x) (40.7x) 8.0x 4.0x 2.4x Debt / Equity 0.1x 0.7x 1.6x 3.3x 3.8x 1.4x 0.5x 0.3x Leverage 1.8x 2.2x 3.5x 6.6x 8.4x 4.7x 2.9x 2.1x Interest Coverage (6.1x) (2.1x) (0.3x) (0.2x) 0.8x 1.9x 3.6x 5.9x Ratio Debt Coverage Ratio (3.0x) n.a (0.3x) 0.2x 0.7x 1.7x 3.1x 5.2x ROCE (37.5%) (13.5%) (4.6%) 4.1% 22.6% 48.8% 52.8% 50.4% ROE (42.5%) (15.1%) (18.8%) (17.0%) (3.6%) 19.4% 31.3% 33.4% 2 US Equity Research Chanticleer Holdings, Inc. Investment Thesis We view Chanticleer Holdings, Inc (“Company”, “Chanticleer” or HOTR) as a unique speculative growth investment in the restaurants sector. Chanticleer owns and operates multiple restaurant brands both domestically and internationally including the iconic Hooters™, American Roadside Burger™(ARB), The Burger Joint ™ and Just Fresh™. Beginning with a focus on the Hooters brand, Chanticleer’s management has charted a compelling growth story for the Company that is focused on bringing the taste of America abroad. The Company is in a high growth phase and if it continues to have access to funding, either through debt or equity, then we anticipate the Company to turn EBITDA positive and generate healthy cash flows in the future. Unique Portfolio of strong brands Hooters At the end of Q3 2014, Chanticleer had 26 locations in operation of which 13 were Hooters franchises. Chanticleer currently owns, in whole or part, the exclusive franchise rights to develop and operate Hooters restaurants in South Africa, Hungary, Poland, Brazil, and the United Kingdom and has joint ventured with the current Hooters franchisee in Australia, while evaluating several additional international opportunities. Hooters is a casual beach-themed restaurant, with sports on television, jukebox music, and the extremely popular Hooters Girls. The menu consists of spicy chicken wings, seafood, sandwiches and salads. Hooters began in 1983 with its first restaurant in Clearwater, Florida. Currently, Hooters operates in 28 countries through more than 450 locations, generating close to $1bn revenues. The Company primarily operates Hooters in areas which house trendy bars, restaurants and local businesses with up market residential complexes surrounding the shopping district, creating an attractive mix of both business and residential guests. HOTR is the only way to publicly invest in HOA. HOTR controls a 3% ownership in HOA and we estimate Chanticleer’s capital interest at 1.06% ownership interest. HOTR’s CEO and President, Michael Pruitt, is a member of the HOA Board of Directors. In 2014, Hooters of America™ completed a refinancing, and the Company received a cash distribution of $526,106 as a result of its ownership interest in HOA. We believe Chanticleer could support 76 Hooters locations in its international territories. Additionally, the Company sees significant opportunity to expand the Hooters brand domestically through additional store openings in its franchise areas of Oregon and Washington. The combination of international and domestic growth will provide diversification with strong revenue and unit growth in the coming years. American Roadside Burgers In September 2013 Chanticleer acquired American Roadside Burgers (“ARB”) based in Charlotte, N.C. At the end of Q3 2014, there were 6 units operational including 1 in Smithtown, New York, 3 in Charlotte, North Carolina and 2 in South Carolina. 3 US Equity Research Chanticleer Holdings, Inc. Each restaurant features a nostalgic "made in America" theme and focuses on premium burgers, milk shakes, and beer. The recent purchase of The Burger Co., a flex casual burger joint, will fit well with the rebranding of American Roadside Burgers to The American Burger Company (“ABC”). This acquisition is an integral step in the strategic growth plans to take the better-burger category into international markets. The unique format of these restaurants promotes franchising opportunities both domestic and internationally. We expect the “better burger” units owned by Chanticleer to grow into the double digits over the next two to three years as it refines its branding and growth strategy.
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