Climate Change Impacts Vulnerability Adaptation
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Acknowledgements The authors are deeply indebted to several individuals who made important contributions to this report. First of all, I would like to thank Mr. Majid Al Mansour Al Mansouri and Dr. Jaber Al Jaberi for their initiative in calling for this study and their continual support throughout the effort. Dr El Waleed Mohamed Hamad El Malik was instrumental in facilitating the many meetings and assisting with the acquisition of needed databases and other information. There were many individuals who provided invaluable support in obtaining the data and information needed by the models used in the study. Dr. Mohamed Dawoud provided extensive water resource information on water supply and demand that helped in the assessment about the impact of climate change on water resources. Mr. Khaldoun Kiwan, Mr. Maher Kabshawi, and Mr. Mayas Qarqaz, specialists in the Terrestrial Environmental Research Centre were very helpful in helping me to understand the types of data and information available for assessing the impact of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in Abu Dhabi. Mr. Abdessalaam Thabit provided an essential orientation to information on marine resources and the marine environment in the Abu Dhabi region. In a study where baseline information on coastal zones, water resources and dryland ecosystems played such a crucial role, Mark Sorensen, Joseph Abdo, Anil Kumar were instrumental in orientation and access to the Environmental Agency’s environmental database under the AGEDI framework. Rashed Mohammed Amin Karkain from Dubai and Nabil Alolaqi, Sultan Zaidi, and Rashed Alkaabi from the Abu Dhabi Environmental Agency provided excellent facilitation in arranging meetings. Contributors Author William W. Dougherty Co-Authors Amanda Fencl, Balqis Osman Elasha, Chris Swartz, David Yates, Jeremy Fisher, Richard Klein Address Stockholm Environment Institute - US Center An Independent Research Affiliate of Tufts University 11 Curtis Avenue Somerville, MA 02144 USA www.serinternational.org Photographers Xavier Eichaker, Hanne &Jens Eriksen, Salim Javed, Gary Brown AND MARAYKA. Copyright © 2009 Environmental Agency -Abu Dhabi. All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, electrostatic, magnetic tape, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, without permission in writing from the publisher. ISBN 9789948-408-41-3 Design and prepared by Environment Agency-Abu Dhabi, P.O. Box 45553, Abu Dhabi, UAE Tel: +971-2-4454777; Fax: +971-2-4463339 Website: www.ead.ae Produced from camera-ready-copy supplied by the publisher CLIMATE CHANGE Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation Coastal Zones in the Water Resources Dryland Ecosystems United Arab Emirates in Abu Dhabi in Abu Dhabi PO Box: 45553, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates Tel:+971-2- 4454777; Fax:+971-2- 4463339 Website: www.ead.ae 4 Foreword There are many levels at which the United Arab Emirates is concerned about climate change. The UAE is already subject to extreme climatic conditions that will likely become only more extreme due to climate change. Even small long-term variations in temperature and precipitation could have adverse effects on productive activities due to the fragile nature of the nation’s precious natural resources and interconnectivity with global economic activity. The key aim of this report is to identify and assess the potential magnitude of the physical impacts due to climate change on three vulnerable sectors in the UAE: coastal zones, water resources, and dryland ecosystems. Additionally, recommendations are suggested regarding sustainable adaptation processes for going forward after this preliminary assessment. This process first requires adjustments in policies, institutions and attitudes that establish enabling conditions, and second is accompanied by eventual technological and infrastructural changes. There are three major parts of the report offering sector-specific key findings and recommendations as summarized below: 1. “Part 1: Impacts, Vulnerability, & Adaptation for Coastal Zones” in the United Arab Emirates, an analysis of sea level rise on coastal zones throughout the Emirates. 2. “Part 2: Impacts, Vulnerability, & Adaptation for Water Resources” in Abu Dhabi, an analysis of water supply and demand in the face of climate change in the Abu Dhabi Emirate. 3. “Part 3: Impacts, Vulnerability, & Adaptation for Dryland Ecosystems” in Abu Dhabi, a qualitative assessment of the impact of increased variability in rainfall and temperature regimes on dryland systems in the Abu Dhabi Emirate. It is my hope that this effort paves the way for mainstreaming climate risks into tomorrow’s development efforts in the UAE. Majid Al Mansouri Secretary-General Environment Agency-Abu Dhabi 5 Table of Contents (Part 1) Coastal Zones In the UAE Page List of Tables................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 12 List of Figures.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 12 List of Acronyms...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 1. Introduction............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 14 2. Sea-level rise impacts on coastal systems............................................................................................................................................... 17 2.1. Abrupt or rapid sea level rise......................................................................................................................................................................... 19 2.2. Eustatic sea level rise from deglaciation 20 2.3. Sea-surface temperatures, thermal expansion, and thermosteric sea level rise................................................................................................................................................................... 21 2.4. Increase in the tidal variation around the mean................................................................................................................ 22 2.5. Storms frequency and intensity in relation to rising sea levels......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23 2.6. Coastal erosion and shoreline retreat................................................................................................................................................ 27 3. Climate change and coastal ecosystems................................................................................................................................................... 28 3.1. Sabkhat coastal ecosystems........................................................................................................................................................................... 28 3.2. Mangroves................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 29 3.3. Sea grass..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30 3.4. Coral Reefs............................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31 3.5. Influence of sea level rise and sea surface temperature warming on coastal fauna .................................................................................................................................................................................. 32 4. Inundation analysis of coastal areas ................................................................................................................................................................... 34 4.1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34 4.2. Methodology ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34 4.3. Data limitations, methodological considerations: challenges to mapping sea level rise................................................................................................................................................... 37 4.4. Defining mean sea