Rebound from Marital Conflict and Divorce Prediction *
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Rebound from Marital Conflict and Divorce Prediction * JOHN MORDECHAI GOTTMAN, Ph.D.t ROBERT WAYNE LEVENSON, Ph.D.* Marital interaction has primarily been laboratory reported that primarily nega examined in tl. context of conflict resolu tive affect predicted divorce (Gottman, tion. This study investigated the predictive 1993, 1994; Gottman & Levenson, 1992), a ability of couples to rebound from marital subsequent 9-year longitudinal study we conflict in a subsequent positive conversa conducted with newlyweds (with a newer tion. Results showed that there was a great version of our emotion coding system) deal of consistency in affect across both found that low levels of positive affect conversations. Also examined was the during the first few months of marriage ability of affective interaction to predict also predicted later divorce (Gottman, divorce over a 4-year period, separately in Coan, Carrere, & Swanson, 1998). With each of the two conversations. It was this newer emotion coding system focus possible to predict divorce using affective ing just on affect, our laboratory could now variables from each conversation, with code not only the conflict-resolution conver 82.6% accuracy from the conflict conversa sation, but also the couple's discussion of tion and with 92.7% accuracy from the the "events of the day" conversation, and positive rebound conversation. we now had a sensitive instrument for measuring positive as well as negative Fam Proc 38:287-292, 1999 affect. This nonconflict aspect of marital inter action has received surprisingly little at BSERVATIONAL investigations of mari tention. Two exceptions are Gottman tal interaction tend to sample O (1979, 1980) and Birchler, Weiss, and Vm couples' behavior using conversations de cent (1975). Gottman (1979, 1980) re signed to elicit conflict and problem solv ported that it was possible to discriminate ing (see Gottman, 1979). Although our distressed from nondistressed couples whether they talked about a conflict issue * This research was supported by grant MH35997 in their marriage or worked on a "fun from the National Institute of Mental Health to the deck" task in which the admonition to the authors, and by Research Scientist Award K2MH00257 to the first author. couples was to look over the deck of items, t James Mifflin Professor of Psychology, Depart plan, reminisce, and have a good time. ment of Psychology, University of Washington, Box Birchler, Weiss, and Vincent (1975) used a 351525, Seattle WA 98195; e-mail:johng@u. self-report diary measure of "pleases" and washington.edu. "displeases," a precursor of the Spouse :j: Director, Institute for Personality Research, Department of Psychology, University of California, Observation Checklist. In the home envi Berkeley. ronment, distressed partners recorded sig- 287 Family Process, Vol. 38, No.3, 1999 © FP, Inc. 288 / FAMILY PROCESS nificantly fewer pleasing and significantly affect than the MICS, for both positive greater displeasing events than was the and negative affect (Gottman, 1996). This case for nondistressed partners. The ratio system also had the advantage that, un of pleases to displeases at home discrimi like the MICS, it could easily be used to nated the groups quite dramatically: the code both conflict and nonconflict interac ratio was 29.66 for nondistressed and 4.30 tion. for distressed couples. Also, during the Four years later, the couples in our conflict resolution interaction, these au study were again contacted and their mari thors computed a similar ratio using the tal status was assessed. This made it Marital Interaction Coding System possible for us to ask the questions of (MICS), an observational coding system: whether one could assess the most salient distressed couples produced an average of couples' affective behavior in terms of 1.49 positives per minute, while nondis divorce prediction equally well in situa tressed couples produced an average of tions other than conflict resolution, and 1.93 positives per minute, a significant whether the patterns of prediction varied difference. Birchler, Weiss, and Vincent as a function of the type of conversation. also had a period of 4 minutes of "free METHODS interaction" in which couples were in structed to "talk about anything while we Participants are setting up the equipment." There were Couples were originally recruited in significant differences in these conversa 1983 in Bloomington, Indiana, using news tions between distressed and nondis paper advertisements. Approximately 200 tressed couples only on negative, but not couples who responded to these advertise positive interaction (distressed negative ments completed a demographic question rate 1.07 "negatives" per minute; nondis naire and two measures of marital satisfac tressed negative rate .73 "negatives" per tion, for which they were paid $5.00. From minute). this sample, a smaller group of 85 couples We reasoned that if the conflict discus was invited to participate in the labora sion is followed by a positive conversation, tory assessments and to complete a num we can expect that there may be some ber of additional questionnaires. The goal spillover from conflict to nonconflict inter of this two-stage sampling was to insure action. We thought that the couple's abil that we came close to obtaining a distribu ity to rebound from negative affect that is tion of marital satisfaction in which all generated by a conflict discussion might parts of the distribution would be equally turn out to be a predictor of the eventual represented. Complete sets of usable fate of the marriage. The investigation of physiological data were obtained from 79 this contention was the purpose of the of these 85 couples. These 79 couples could present article. be described as follows. Husbands were Many marital interaction observational about 32 years old (SD = 9.5 years); (b) coding systems (such as the MICS), were wives were about 29 years old (SD = 6.8 specifically designed for problem-solving years). They were married an average of 5 interaction, and they may not be appropri years (SD = 6.3 years). The average mari ate for coding the nonconflict interaction. tal satisfaction for husbands was (average For this report, we employed an observa of Locke-Wallace and Locke-Williamson tional system, the specific affect coding scales) = 96.80 (SD = 22.16); and for system (SPAFF) that obtained consider wives the average marital satisfaction ably more detail and specificity in coding was 98.56 (SD = 20.70). GOTTMAN AND LEVENSON / 289 Procedures be silent and not interact, and during which we obtained baseline physiological Interaction Session measures (not discussed in this report). Couples arrived in the laboratory after Details of the procedures for setting up having been apart for at least 8 hours. these conversations are available upon They had three 15-minute conversations: request. (1) events of the day; (2) conflict resolution (discussion of a problem area of continu Followup ing disagreement); and (3) a pleasant Four years after the initial assessment, topic. In this article we report on only the the original subjects were recontacted and latter two conversations. at least one spouse (70 husbands, 72 The conversations were always in the wives) from 73 of the original 79 couples order shown above for the following rea (92.4%) agreed to participate in the fol sons. We wanted couples to have the events lowup. Spouses completed a set of ques of the day conversation first because we tionnaires assessing marital satisfaction, wanted to sample this kind of everyday and items relevant to possible marital nonconflict interaction, and we wanted to dissolution. The two dichotomous vari begin our laboratory session with a re ables, serious considerations of divorce in union conversation that would seem natu the 4 years since Time-l and Time-2, and ral and help make subjects comfortable actual divorce will serve as the external with the laboratory situation. It was also criterion variables in our report. the most natural way to start the couples' conversation after they had been apart for Data Coding and Analysis 8 hours. In pilot work in which we began The videotapes of the interaction were with the conflict conversation, we found coded using the Specific Affect Coding that there was an undesirable spillover of System (SPAFF), which focused on spe negative affect into the events of the day cific emotions. Coders were first trained discussion. using the Ekman and Friesen (1978) We followed this events of the day con FacialAction Scoring System, with a set of versation with the couples' conflict discus our own audiotapes for recognizing affect sion. After filling out a problem inventory, in the voice, and a set of videotapes for the spouses were interviewed about an detecting specific features in affect using area of continuing disagreement in their paralinguistic, contextual, linguistic, and marriage and asked to discuss this area kinesic channels. However, the training and try their best to resolve the issue in went beyond specific features and observ the next 15 minutes. The conflict discus ers were taught to use a Gestalt approach sion was followed by the couple filling out to recognizing specific emotions in all an inventory of positive topics and an channels combined. The initial training of interview in which they were asked to coders took over 200 hours. Coders classi identify a topic that they would both enjoy fied each speech act (usually a phrase) discussing. The plan for the post-conflict within a turn at speech as affectively conversation was twofold: to debrief sub neutral, as one of five negative affects jects so they could recover from the con (anger, contempt/disgust, sadness, fear, flict conversation, and to assess the whining), or as one of four positive affects amount of recovery. Each conversation (affection/caring, humor, interest/curios was preceded by a 5-minute pre-conversa ity, and joy/enthusiasm). Coding manuals, tion period in which couples were asked to training and test video and audiotapes are Fam.