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Performance Assessment of Road Transport Network of the Republic of Serbia in a Context of Information Scarcity

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Performance Assessment of Road Transport Network of the Republic of Serbia in a Context of Information Scarcity Performance assessment of road transport network of the Republic of Serbia in a context of information scarcity Andrej Manić Dissertation for obtaining the Degree of Master in Complex Transport Infrastructure Systems Jury President: Professor Maria do Rosário Maurício Ribeiro Macário Supervisor: Professor Filipe Manuel Mercier Vilaça Moura Member: Professor Luis Miguel Garrido Martinez November 2012 This thesis was completed to obtain a Master of Science Degree in Complex Transport Infrastructure Systems, a part of the MIT Portugal Program Assessment of transport network of the Republic of Serbia in a context of information scarcity Acknowledgments I take this opportunity to express my gratitude to Professor Filipe Moura, for his help, guidance and encouragement during the creation of this thesis. Whenever I needed his advice he was there. Also, I would like to thank all my colleagues at Instituto Superior Técnico, especially Shant, Minas, Nikhil, Aivin and João for their friendship and support, for overcoming obstacles together, and for all the great moments we shared. I am truly grateful to have them in my life. I am forever grateful to my mother, for her love and support, for believing in me, and for helping me get to where I am today. Also, I must address a special thanks to Miljana, for her endless patience and understanding. Finally, I would like to dedicate this work to my late father, who helped me make the first steps on the road I’m on today. This is for him. I Assessment of transport network of the Republic of Serbia in a context of information scarcity Abstract Western Balkans is a region currently undergoing a major process of transition in light of future ascension to the European Union, and Serbia is taking its part in the process. Part of these reforms includes modernizing and reintegrating transport networks, most of which became fragmented and obsolete during the dissolution of the former Yugoslavia. This study aims to examine the road transport system at the country level of the Republic of Serbia, and for that, it will characterize current demand flows of both passenger and freight transportation within the country, while focusing on the current state of the road transport infrastructure, defining major transport routes and corridors, and identifying key weak points and issues that need to be addressed. Methodologically, a road transport model of Serbia is created using VISUM software with the support of ArcGIS package for processing geographical information. Importantly, the study will detail all methodological steps in a context of information scarcity, including network building, data gathering and model calibration. Finally, the modeling approach will enable a scenario analysis regarding future traffic growth and will be the basis for a differential comparison between the current state of transport network and the future foreseeable outcome, after the completion of the country’s official transport master plan, with a special focus on accessibility indicators. Performance analysis and differential comparison was carried out for three scenarios: 1. 2012 baseline scenario; 2. 2027 scenario with demand growth and network improvement; 3. 2027 scenario only with demand growth and no network improvement. Research concludes the existence of several weak points in the network, which, if not treated, will only aggravate the situation due to the forecasted demand growth. Also, several issues regarding accessibility need to be addressed, namely the remote regions along the borders, where situation will not improve sufficiently even with the future projects being successfully carried out, potentially generating geographical equity issues. Keywords: Pan-European Corridors, 4 step model, accessibility indicators, transport policy, performance analysis, Serbian road network, TEN-T II Assessment of transport network of the Republic of Serbia in a context of information scarcity Table of contents Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................... I Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... II Table of contents .......................................................................................................................... III Figure Index ................................................................................................................................... V Table Index .................................................................................................................................. VII Equation Index............................................................................................................................ VIII List of Acronyms ........................................................................................................................... IX 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background and Motivation ........................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research Questions ...................................................................................................... 4 1.3 Methodology and Dissertation Outline .......................................................................... 5 2 Literature review ............................................................................................................... 6 2.1 State of the art in transport modeling ............................................................................ 6 2.2 State of the practice in transport modeling .................................................................. 12 2.3 Experience in regional traffic forecasting for Western Balkans ................................... 16 3 Presentation of the case study of the Republic of Serbia .............................................. 19 3.1.1 General statistics and characterization of the transport system ......................... 19 3.1.2 TEN-T (Trans-European Networks - Transport) .................................................. 25 3.1.3 Pan-European Corridors...................................................................................... 26 3.1.4 SEETO (South East Europe Transport Observatory) ......................................... 28 3.2 Undergoing projects and planned for near future ........................................................ 29 3.3 General Master Plan for Transport in Serbia (GMTS) project listing .......................... 30 3.4 Factors for transport demand growth until 2027 ......................................................... 38 4 National road transport model for Serbia: methodological approach ............................. 41 4.1 Data collection and processing ................................................................................... 41 4.2 Transport network description ..................................................................................... 44 4.3 Impedance and volume-delay functions ...................................................................... 45 III Assessment of transport network of the Republic of Serbia in a context of information scarcity 4.4 Demand data input, calibration and testing ................................................................. 49 4.5 Transport demand forecast until 2027 ........................................................................ 54 5 Performance analysis and differential comparison......................................................... 56 5.1 Identification of performance problems of the transport system ................................. 56 5.2 Differential comparison and discussion of results ....................................................... 59 6 Conclusions .................................................................................................................... 67 6.1 Main highlights of the research ................................................................................... 67 6.2 Research limitations and leads for future work ........................................................... 69 7 References ..................................................................................................................... 71 8 Annexes ............................................................................................................................. I 8.1 Transport map ................................................................................................................ I 8.2 District capitals .............................................................................................................. II 8.3 Action Plan for transport development ......................................................................... III 8.4 Road categorization....................................................................................................... V 8.5 GMTS summary map .................................................................................................. VII 8.6 2012 data summary table ........................................................................................... VIII 8.7 2027 trips forecast ..................................................................................................... XVI 8.8 Link saturation level comparison ............................................................................
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