2016 INDEX OF Culture & Opportunity The Social and Economic Trends that Shape America
INSTITUTE FOR Edited by FAMILY, COMMUNITY, Jennifer A. Marshall AND OPPORTUNITY Rachel Sheffield 2016 INDEX OF Culture & Opportunity The Social and Economic Trends that Shape America © 2016 by The Heritage Foundation 214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20002 (202) 546-4400 | heritage.org
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Cover Photo © istockphoto.com Printed in the United States of America. 2016 INDEX OF Culture & Opportunity The Social and Economic Trends that Shape America
Edited by Jennifer A. Marshall Rachel Sheffield
The 2016 Index of Culture and Opportunity is dedicated to Richard and Helen DeVos, whose years of dedication to building the institutional capacity for research on religion and civil society at The Heritage Foundation have made this project possible.
Contents
Contributors...... xi
Acknowledgments...... xiii Preface Jim DeMint...... xv Executive Summary Jennifer A. Marshall and Rachel Sheffield...... 1 Introduction Michael Novak...... 9 Section One: Culture
Culture Summary...... 15 Culture and the Challenge of Self-Government Scott Yenor...... 17 A Generation Conflicted About Marriage Amber and David Lapp...... 20 Divorce in Our Nation Julie Baumgardner...... 22 Having Children Helps—Not Hurts—Our Future Mollie Ziegler Hemingway...... 24 Reinvigorating Family Life: Critical to Restoring Opportunity Eric Cochling...... 26 Teen Drug Use: Cultural Amnesia, Current Harm Seth Leibsohn...... 28 Responding to the Sexual Revolution with Love and Fidelity Caitlin La Ruffa...... 30 Pro-Life Convictions, Lower Demand for Abortions Randall Wenger...... 32 Religiosity and the Future of Freedom Daniel Mark...... 34 Improving the Quantity and Quality of America’s Volunteerism Brian Fikkert...... 36 Families, Churches, and Crime Prevention Ken Blackwell...... 38 Section Two: Poverty & Dependence
Poverty & Dependence Summary...... 47 The Promise of Hope and Opportunity The Honorable Sam Brownback...... 49 Innovations in Training for the American Labor Force Jo Kwong...... 52 Attacking the Roots of Child Poverty Kevin D. Dayaratna...... 54 Showing the Way to Self-Sufficiency Tarren Bragdon...... 56 The Welfare System’s Perverse Incentives Undermine Self-Sufficiency Jay Wesley Richards...... 58 Our "Lake Wobegon" Public Housing Policy Robert Rector...... 60 How Intentional Design Increased Dependence on Food Stamps and Undermined Work Mary C. Mayhew...... 62 American Principles Lead to Opportunity for All Timothy Jeffries...... 64 Most Work-Eligible Welfare Recipients Are Not Working Rachel Sheffield...... 66 Section Three: General Opportunity
General Opportunity Summary...... 75 Ensuring the Opportunity to Choose a Promising Future Diana Furchtgott-Roth...... 77 Time to Turn the Page on Stagnant Reading Achievement Derrell Bradford...... 80 Charter Schools: Expanding Educational Opportunity for All Nina Rees...... 82 The Overlooked Relationship between Private School Choice and Charter Growth Jay P. Greene...... 84 Graduation Rates Are Up, But Not College Preparedness Andy Smarick...... 86 Student Loan Debt Richard Vedder...... 88 Employment Has Value Beyond a Paycheck James Sherk...... 90 What the Unemployment Rate Isn’t Telling Us William W. Beach...... 92 Job Openings Signal Optimism, But Hiring Lags Behind Mark Wilson...... 94 Job Hires Rate Slow to Recover Rea S. Hederman, Jr...... 96 Making Washington Work for Women and Their Families Sabrina L. Schaeffer...... 98 The Waning Culture of American Entrepreneurship Ryan Streeter...... 100 Regulatory Barriers to Reaching the Middle Class Salim Furth...... 102 The Cultural Conditions of Prosperity Alejandro A. Chafuen...... 104 Supplementary Statistical Analysis Jamie Bryan Hall...... 111
Appendix...... 114
Indicator Sources...... 116
2016 Index of Culture and Opportunity Editorial Team...... 121
About The Heritage Foundation...... 123
Contributors
Julie Baumgardner is President and Chief Executive Officer of First Things First.
William W. Beach is Vice President for Policy Research at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.
Ken Blackwell is Senior Fellow for Family Empowerment at the Family Research Council and former Undersecretary at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Derrell Bradford is Executive Director of the New York Campaign for Achievement Now (NYCAN).
Tarren Bragdon is President and Chief Executive Officer of the Foundation for Government Accountability.
The Honorable Sam Brownback is Governor of the State of Kansas and a former member of both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate.
Alejandro A. Chafuen is President of the Atlas Network.
Eric Cochling is Executive Vice President and General Counsel at the Georgia Center for Opportunity.
Kevin Dayaratna is Senior Statistician and Research Programmer in the Center for Data Analysis, of the Institute for Economic Freedom and Opportunity, at The Heritage Foundation.
is Founder and President of the Chalmers Center for Economic Development at Brian Fikkert Covenant College.
Diana Furchtgott-Roth, former Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Labor, is a Senior Fellow and Director of Economics21 at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research.
Salim Furth is a Research Fellow in Macroeconomics in the Center for Data Analysis.
Jay P. Greene is the endowed Professor of Education Reform at the University of Arkansas.
Jamie Bryan Hall is a Senior Policy Analyst in the Center for Data Analysis.
Rea S. Hederman, Jr., is Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of the Buckeye Institute for Public Policy Solutions.
Mollie Ziegler Hemingway is a Senior Editor at The Federalist.
Timothy Jeffries is Director of the Arizona Department of Economic Security.
Jo Kwong is Director of Economic Opportunity Programs at the Philanthropy Roundtable.
Caitlin La Ruffa is Executive Director of the Love and Fidelity Network.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org xi Amber and David Lapp, co-investigators of the Love and Marriage in Middle America Project, are Research Fellows at the Institute for Family Studies and Affiliate Scholars at the Institute for American Values.
Seth Leibsohn is host of the Seth Leibsohn Show in Phoenix, Arizona; Chairman of Arizonans for Responsible Drug Policy; and Chairman of NotMYKid.
Daniel Mark is an Assistant Professor of Political Science and the Navy ROTC Battalion Professor at Villanova University.
Mary C. Mayhew is Commissioner of the Department of Health and Human Services in the State of Maine.
Michael Novak, retired American Enterprise Institute George Frederick Jewett Scholar in Religion, Philosophy, and Public Policy, is an author, philosopher, and theologian.
Robert Rector is a Senior Research Fellow in Domestic Policy Studies, of the Institute for Family, Community, and Opportunity, at The Heritage Foundation.
Nina Rees is President and Chief Executive Officer of the National Alliance for Public Charter Schools. Jay W. Richards is an Assistant Research Professor in the School of Business and Economics at the Catholic University of America and Executive Editor of The Stream.
Sabrina L. Schaeffer is Executive Director of the Independent Women’s Forum.
Rachel Sheffield is a Policy Analyst in Domestic Policy Studies.
James Sherk is a Research Fellow in Labor Economics in the Center for Data Analysis.
Andy Smarick is a member of the Maryland State Board of Education and a partner at Bellwether Education Partners.
Ryan Streeter is Director of the Center for Politics and Governance at the University of Texas at Austin.
Richard Vedder directs the Center for College Affordability and Productivity, teaches at Ohio University, and is an Adjunct Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.
Randall Wenger is Chief Counsel of the Independence Law Center.
Mark Wilson is Vice President and Chief Economist for HR Policy Association.
Scott Yenor is currently a Visiting Fellow in American Political Thought in the B. Kenneth Simon Center for Principles and Politics, of the Institute for Family, Community, and Opportunity, and a Professor of Political Science at Boise State University.
xii 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity Acknowledgments
he cumulative efforts of at least 50 people the readability and consistency of the con- Tare represented in this volume, the third tent. Jay Simon and John Fleming continued annual edition of the Index of Culture and to innovate and enhance the publication de- Opportunity, demonstrating its thesis that the sign and data presentation. The oversight of proper function of each part contributes to Maria Sousa made possible the online deliv- the success of the whole. ery, while Marguerite Bowling oversaw com- In addition to the 35 content contributors, munications efforts. numerous Heritage colleagues helped the It is a pleasure to work with these col- project reach completion. Leslie Merkle pro- leagues who regularly go above and beyond vided ever-ready assistance to keep the parts their duties because of their commitment to functioning smoothly together throughout excellence and to the cause of a stronger soci- the project. Christine Kim, Jamie Hall, and ety for the good of all. Patrick Tyrrell gave reliable technical assis- tance. Mary Clare Reim and Melody Wood Jennifer A. Marshall Rachel Sheffield pitched in with research assistance. The edi- Institute for ,torial precision of Richard Odermatt, Therese Family, Community Pennefather, and William Poole improved and Opportunity
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org xiii
Preface Jim DeMint
he Heritage Index of Culture and Opportunity, more than the mere opposite of big and bloat- Tnow in its third year, tracks the conditions ed government. that challenge or buoy Americans in their Subsidiarity prompts the problem-solv- day-to-day lives. It looks at factors such as ing capabilities of local understanding—a unemployment, marriage, quality and freedom familiarity that goes beyond checkmarks on of education, economic freedom, and many government paperwork. It hinges on our re- others to show a broad picture of American sponsibility toward our neighbors—a respon- society and the challenges to thriving in it. sibility that cannot be shifted to Washington The Index’s findings are at turns an indict- or the rest of the nation. Social programs ment and an inspiration. We see much work administered by distant bureaucrats can go to be done to alleviate the plight of intergen- through charitable motions with little aware- erational poverty and broken families—cir- ness of whether their supposed beneficiaries cumstances too often exacerbated rather are lost in the turning of the gears.
-than effectively addressed by federal policy— We will achieve true charity in our respon but we also see room for hope, whether in sibility for our neighbors only when our efforts educational successes finally bringing quality are tethered to communities by the bonds of options to more and more students or in a de- care. These bonds are forged by an intimacy crease in the number of abortions. with local life—faults and foibles included— Surveying the indicators, it is clear that the and a physical investment in the community era of big government over the past half-cen- that one wishes to assist. It cannot come from tury has not been a good one for the strength the top down, as history has shown. of communities and the flourishing of indi- If I may turn the old progressive saw on its viduals. This should concern all Americans, head: Think locally, and act locally too. Even whatever their political affiliation, who want as we debate national policies, it is vital that to help the poorest among us and preserve the we never forget that each of us is from some- prosperity of our hard-working fellow citi- where and that we allow that place to be part zens who have been blessed to find it. of us. It also should point us toward a renewed Before we presume to know what is best appreciation for subsidiarity: the principle for others, we must learn what is best for our that political challenges are best met at the own families and neighbors in our little part smallest level of government capable of han- of the world, allowing our neighbors to do dling them. Subsidiarity is often discussed the same. In this endeavor, let us take cheer as a condition for a free economy or as in- from the words of the great English novelist surance against unjust coercion by those in George Eliot: power. It is certainly these. But subsidiarity is
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org xv A human life, I think, should be well rooted in some spot of a native land, where it may get the love of tender kinship for the face of earth, for the labours men go forth to, for the sounds and accents that haunt it, for whatever will give that early home a familiar unmistake- able difference amidst the future widening of knowledge...
I hope this edition of the Heritage Index of Culture and Opportunity widens knowledge about our culture and helps to inspire policies that preserve a tender kinship for the people, places, and good works that make America as abundant in charity as in riches.
Jim DeMint is President of The Heritage Foundation.
xvi 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity RIGHT WRONG TRACK TRACK
Marriage Rate (p. 20) Divorce Rate (p. 22) Total Fertility Rate (p. 24)
Single-Parent Households (p. 26)
Teen Drug Use (p. 28) Abstinence Among
Executive Summary Culture High Schoolers (p. 30) Jennifer A. Marshall and Abortion Rate (p. 32) Rachel Sheffield Religious Attendance (p. 34) Volunteering (p. 36) Overview Violent Crime Rate (p. 38) he 2016 Index of Culture and Opportunity Labor Force Tevaluates the social factors essential to sustain Participation Rate (p. 52) freedom and opportunity in America. Through Unwed Birth Rate (p. 54) charts that track social and economic changes Self-Suffi ciency(p. 56) and expert commentary that explains the trends, the Index reports on important indicators in Total Welfare Spending (p. 58) American society and analyzes what they mean Subsidized Housing for our future. Participation (p. 60) Food Stamp Participation (p. 62) What We Track Poverty & Dependence & Poverty TANF Participation (p. 64)
-The Index tracks social and economic fac TANF Work tors related to culture, poverty and depen- Participation Rate (p. 66) dence, and general opportunity in America. Reading Profi ciency (p. 80) It monitors changes for 31 indicators, based on national data regularly updated and orga- Charter School Enrollment (p. 82) nized into three categories: Private School Choice Participation (p. 84) High School • Cultural indicators, including data on Graduation Rate (p. 86) family, religious practice, and civil society; Student Loan Debt (p. 88) Employment-Population • Poverty and dependence indicators re- Ratio (p. 90) lated to marriage and poverty, workforce Unemployment Rate (p. 92) participation, and welfare spending and participation; and Job Openings Rate (p. 94) Job Hires Rate (p. 96)
• General opportunity indicators, such OpportunityGeneral Money Taxed Away by as measures of education, jobs and wealth, Federal Government (p. 98) and economic freedom. Start-Up Job Share (p. 100)
How We Track Major Federal Regulations (p. 102) For each indicator, a chart provides the Economic Freedom (p. 104) most recent year of data available as of March
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 1 2016 and historical data over the past one, Each of the three sections of indicators be- five, and 10 years.1 In the chart, a red line gins with an introductory essay. designates the main indicator; in some cases, related data are displayed alongside using • For the section on cultural indicators, grayscale lines. A key above each chart shows Boise State University Professor of Politi- the change over one-year, five-year, and 10- cal Science Scott Yenor, Visiting Fellow at year periods (with exceptions in the case of a The Heritage Foundation, observes that few indicators). actions in the private realm powerfully The primary focus of this Index and the shape public life. commentators’ contributions is the 10-year change and its direction. That decade-long • For the poverty and dependence section, window allows us to observe what has hap- Governor Sam Brownback of Kansas dis- pened over a longer period of time rather than cusses the safety-net reforms needed to focusing on short-term variations. This great- truly help the vulnerable. er time horizon gives readers a feel for what has been happening regardless of changes in • In the final section, Diana Furchtgott- government or the state of the economy at any Roth, Senior Fellow and Director of particular time. While examining annual data Economics21 at the Manhattan Institute, is helpful in some instances, it may not always explains why educational and economic be the most reliable approach for determining freedom are critical to clear the way up
overall movement of a particular societal trend. the ladder of opportunity for everyone. This is particularly true with data affected by the business cycle, such as labor market and Within these three sections, each of the 31 poverty indicators. It is also true for cultural indicators is accompanied by a commentary trends that typically change quite gradually. explaining what it means and why it mat- ters for culture and opportunity in America. Commentary Providing Context Whether written by a researcher, cultural One of the unique aspects of the Index of commentator, or practitioner, these pieces Culture and Opportunity is the expert com- help readers discern the significance of the mentary to put data in context. Contributors changes within our current context. include researchers at The Heritage Founda- tion and other think tanks, academic scholars, Why It Matters journalists, and practitioners. These com- The Heritage Foundation seeks to advance mentators offer their insights in introductory conservative public policies based on the essays and short commentary alongside each principles of free enterprise, limited govern- of the indicators. ment, individual freedom, traditional Ameri- As Michael Novak writes in the introduc- can values, and a strong national defense. This tion to this volume, “Moral ecology is the new Index is part of a set designed to assess our na- frontier of political economy: the culture in tion’s strength in these areas, along with the which the free society thrives—or destroys Index of Economic Freedom and the Index of itself. The scouts at The Heritage Foundation U.S. Military Strength. Together, these indi- who have contributed to and compiled this ces measure America’s economic, social, and Index of Culture and Opportunity are leading military strength to help inform policy and the way in the most crucial exploration of cultural conversations both in Washington our time.” and across the country.
2 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity Policymakers will find the foundational Individuals can use this Index to inform data they need to address issues involving: their own efforts to shape the future of our culture, whether by raising the next genera- • Marriage, family, and civil society; tion, devoting efforts to overcoming neigh- borhood challenges, or participating in the • Welfare reform; public policy process. Personal responsibility, concern for our • Reduced spending; neighbors, and public policy all influence the culture of opportunity. The 2016 Index of Cul- • Economic growth; and ture and Opportunity will equip those who are seeking to advance an America where free- • The opportunity of individuals in a free dom, opportunity, prosperity, and civil soci- society to improve their circumstances. ety flourish.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 3 Highlights from the 2016 Indicators Section 1: Culture • While the marriage rate ticked up slightly • From 2005 to 2015, the percentage of 12th between 2013 and 2014, it has been trend- graders who use illicit drugs increased ing downward for decades. Between 2004 from 23.1 percent to 23.6 percent. “We and 2014, the marriage rate dropped by didn’t lose the drug war...we gave up on 8.3 marriages per 1,000 unmarried women, it. Now, particularly in the teen popula- or nearly 20 percent. “[T]he declining tion, drug use is going up again,” writes marriage rate is not so much a reflection Seth Leibsohn. that marriage is no longer desired, but that, in a culture of distrust and divorce, it • The abortion rate has declined steadily. is fragile,” write Amber and David Lapp. Between 2001 and 2011, the abortion rate declined by four abortions per 1,000 • The divorce rate saw a minor drop during women of childbearing age. “The factors the decade between 2004 and 2014, but it underlying this decline and the contem- has been declining since it peaked in the poraneous reduction in the number of 1980s. “From 1979 to 2014, the divorce abortion clinics are multifaceted but en- rate dropped from 5.3 per 1,000 to 3.2 per couraging to those who hope to see human 1,000, a whopping 40 percent decrease. life respected,” writes Randall Wenger.
But there is more to the story, and it should make us cautious in our celebra- tion,” explains Julie Baumgardner.
What happens in marriage, family life, and religious practice is part of what constitutes a country’s“ culture. Culture is a manifestation of core beliefs that shape how we live our lives, how we approach duties, and what we expect civil government to do. What John Adams wrote during the American Revolution remains true today: The ‘foundation of national morality must be laid in private families’ and in the associations that people form in civil society. Stronger churches and institutions in civil society dedicated to supporting families in the exercise of their high duties are essential to the perpetuation of our political institutions and to our culture of liberty. —Scott Yenor Culture and the Challenge of Self-Government, p. 19 ” 4 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity Section 2: Poverty & Dependence • From 2005 to 2015, the number of people • The labor force participation rate among living in subsidized housing increased working-age Americans is at its lowest by about 1 million. “While providing level since the 1980s. From 2005 to 2015, assistance to those in need is important, it fell by 1.9 percentage points. To turn the taxpayers should not be required to subsi- tide, Jo Kwong discusses “what is work- dize rents that they themselves could not ing to help more people, especially the afford,” argues Robert Rector. unemployed and underemployed, achieve greater employment success.” • The self-sufficiency rate declined -be tween 2004 and 2014 as the poverty rate • Over 40 percent of children are born out- increased by 2.1 percentage points. The side of marriage every year. From 2004 to poverty rate has fluctuated only slightly 2014, this number grew by 4.4 percentage over the past 50 years. “Welfare is de- points. Children born to married parents structive because it pays people not to are less likely to be poor, explains Kevin work, automatically giving them a check Dayaratna: “Policies to eradicate child or a benefit every month even if they poverty should thus be aimed at strength- don’t work—and so they don’t,” writes ening marriage, reforming our welfare Tarren Bragdon. programs that penalize marriage, and improving education.”
Today, perhaps for the fi rst time in our history, the promise of the American dream is at risk“ of disappearing. For many Americans, the hope of opportunity is no longer a promise rooted in the nature of our nation’s character, but a neglected dream that now seems unattainable. For those who feel lost in the chaos of a global economy, for those who are stuck in the morass of government regulation and economic stagnancy, we can and we must off er the promise of hope and opportunity. —Governor Sam Brownback The Promise of Hope and Opportunity, p. 49 ”
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 5 Section 3: General Opportunity • The number of children attending charter • Average student loan debt now stands schools continues to climb. From 2004 to at $26,888 in 2014 dollars. From 2003 to 2014, charter school enrollment increased 2013, the student loan debt held by each by 1.7 million students. “Parental demand year’s graduates with loans increased by for strong educational options is consis- $4,011. In addition, federal assistance con- tently high, and on current trends, the tributes to higher tuition fees, as Richard number of students attending charter Vedder explains. schools would double in five years,” writes Nina Rees. • Economic freedom in the U.S. continues to decline. It fell by 5.8 points between • From 2006 to 2016, the percentage of 2006 and 2016, according to The Heritage GDP taxed away by the federal govern- Foundation’s Index of Economic Free- ment grew by 0.5 percentage point, to dom. “[L]ower levels of economic freedom 18.1 percent. Sabrina L. Schaeffer focuses negatively affect several cultural indica- on how tax increases specifically affect tors, albeit indirectly,” explains Alejandro women, explaining that they “impinge Chafuen. “Reliance on the state tends to on their freedom and make it harder for reduce a sense of personal responsibility their families to succeed and find fulfill- and commitment to sustaining and pro- ment. This is especially true during a time tecting the rule of law.”
of anemic economic growth when many families are suffering from stagnant wages and increasing costs of living.”
Economic mobility is the defi ning challenge of our time. Inequality will always be with us, despite the“ best eff orts of French professor Thomas Piketty, who wants to reduce it with a wealth tax. We need to focus not on eliminating inequality—which is impossible— but on making sure that people can move up through the income classes through education and job opportunities. —Diana Furchtgott-Roth Ensuring the Opportunity to Choose a Promising Future, p. 77 ”
6 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity Summary Observations
Merely material diagnoses miss the Policy levers are complex, but the prin- point. Whether assessing the nature of ciples to guide them are straightforward. poverty in America or the factors related to The indicators reported here are shaped by crime or economic freedom, looking through many federal, state, and local policies. Some- an exclusively material lens does not give an times a single policy lever can significantly af- adequate picture of the problem or yield the fect a trend, but in most cases, multiple poli- best insights about solutions. Human beings cies play a role. While the interaction of these are relational, with aspirations beyond the policies is complex, the principles that make material. Our discussion about opportunity a positive difference across issues are clear ought to reflect that a job is more than a pay- and well-documented. For example, policy check. It contributes to a sense of purpose should not undermine marriage, family, or and meaning as individuals put their gifts religious congregations and other groups to use toward productive ends. Economic formed around common interests or to meet freedom is not an end in itself: It is a means community needs. It should encourage work by which human beings can pursue their and make way for economic activity among full potential. citizens to flourish. Trends must be viewed in terms of Perseverance pays off, but distraction their human toll. Reading proficiency has derails progress. The decades of sustained barely budged for decades. That is an in- effort by the pro-life movement are bearing dictment of status quo education policy, but fruit as research shows demand for abortion more significantly, it is a tragedy of unreal- and the number of abortion facilities declin- ized human potential. The same must be said ing. Similarly, more and more students are of the lack of improvement in self-sufficien- benefiting from the efforts of educational cy in the decades since the War on Poverty freedom advocates to open the doors to char-
-began in 1965. Meanwhile, the reduction in ter schools and private school choice. But fail the number of abortions in recent years is ure to shore up and build on initial successes indeed very good news, but it should not dis- can result in setbacks, as seen in the negative tract us from the reality that nearly one mil- changes when it comes to keeping teens off lion unborn lives are ended each year in the of drugs and reforming welfare. Restarting United States. The trends in this Index are reform after years of heading in the wrong di- about human beings. That should heighten rection is a huge undertaking. Lasting change our dissatisfaction with the status quo and requires commitment over the long haul from catalyze action. policymakers and citizens.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 7 Policy Implications
Many policies interact to create the condi- of government. Policymakers should pursue tions that will either encourage or hinder the the following proposals based on the data and expansion of opportunity. Policy leadership commentary presented in this Index: is required at federal, state, and local levels
• Pursue policy that promotes life, marriage, and religious liberty (p. 20, p. 22, p. 24, p. 32, p. 34).
• Pursue limited government that encourages personal responsibility and concern for neighbors (p. 36, p. 38).
• Promote student-centered education choice options (p. 80, p. 82, p. 84).
• Teach and reinforce, throughout high school, sexual risk avoidance and healthy relation- ship skills and messages (p. 26, p. 30).
• Advance comprehensive welfare reform, focusing on restoring self-sufficiency through work and eliminating work disincentives in social safety-net programs (p. 56, p. 58, p. 60, p. 62, p. 64, p. 66). • Reduce governmental regulations that impede entrepreneurship and the growth of small businesses (p. 94, p. 96, p. 100, p. 102, p. 104).
• Identify and study effective and successful strategies and approaches (p. 28, p. 49, p. 56, p. 62, p. 82, p. 84).
• Reduce the tax burden on families and individuals to encourage entrepreneurship and economic growth (p. 98, p. 104).
Jennifer A. Marshall is Vice President for the Institute for Family, Community, and Opportunity and Joseph C. and Elizabeth A. Anderlik Fellow at The Heritage Foundation.
Rachel Sheffield is a Policy Analyst in the Institute for Family, Community, and Opportunity.
1. For several indicators for which annual data are not available, the intervals vary.
8 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity Introduction Michael Novak
o one denies that the moral climate of the framework of checks and balances and ob- Nplace into which parents introduce their ligated to respect the natural rights of every children may give an upward or downward man and woman along with the common push to their children’s ability to grow up good. Each of the three systems of democratic with good habits, among good companions, capitalism depends on the other two. in a culture that encourages the good and the beautiful. A sharp moral decline throughout • The economy cannot work without a polity the culture is deadly to children. President of law respectful of natural rights, as well Barack Obama has said that climate change as the cultural habits necessary to support is the greatest threat facing our generation, all three systems in one; but the ecology of the culture in which we live and move is even more important for the ex- • The polity cannot work without the habits pansion of economic opportunity and overall of the heart that respect both the ordi-
well-being than is the ecology of the biosphere. nances of the law and the rights of every I began writing about democratic capital- other person in the political system—hab- ism in the 1970s in an effort to explain just its that constitute a culture of civic repub- what the American new order (the Novus licanism; and Ordo Seclorum) is. This could not be learned simply by reading the political philosophers • The culture can barely survive under a and political scientists, who did not write hostile economic system that is driven much about economics or culture. Nor could by cupidity, envy, smothering control by it be learned by reading only the economists, the state, or personal moral heedlessness. who for the most part wrote not nearly enough Nor can it survive under a hostile polity about the polity, the presence (or absence) of that is contemptuous of truth, justice, law, the rule of law, natural rights, and a culture of and beauty. creativity. Nor did the literary figures and hu- manists seem to explore the new model of so- Further, this culture will fall into lassitude ciety in which it was their privilege to dwell (a and nihilism unless it maintains its longing society that heretofore had “no model on the for the transcendent, its upward thrust into face of the globe,” as Madison put it in Feder- the future, and the highest aspirations of the alist No. 14). human heart. As Tocqueville saw, without Therefore, it seemed, a lot of work re- that upward thrust, belief in the inviolable mained to be done to put into words the dignity of every single person will not sur- nature of our tripartite system: a culture, a vive, nor will respect for truth in public dis- polity, an economy—all three in a distinctive course. Our Founders thought that belief in
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 9 the more it takes this fact into account and immortality and the certainty of divine judg- does not place in opposition personal interest ment are indispensable supports of public and the interests of society as a whole, but virtue. Sheer materialism will suck the breath rather seeks ways to bring them into fruitful out of the human spirit. harmony.1 In other words, an economy without beau- ty, love, human rights, respect for one another, Economic opportunity in our nation relies civic friendship, and strong families (the tu- fundamentally on cultural conditions that tors of moral habits) is not likely to be loved, foster personal creativity, responsibility, free- to be worthy of human persons, or to survive dom, the love for community through associa- very long. Those who focus almost exclusively tion and mutual cooperation, the aim of bet- on markets or even enterprise do not wholly tering the condition of every person on Earth, capture the American system as it has func- the cultivation of the rule of law, respect for tioned ever since the beginning. the natural rights of others, the preference of The essence of capitalism is not what many persuasion by reason rather than by coercion, people think it is. It is the spirit and practice a powerful sense of the sinful drag on human of creativity: invention, discovery, using one’s souls and the need for checks against it. head. Virtually every business and industry in Personal responsibility matters. Incen- the United States today is based upon a new tives matter. Personal labor and earning your insight into the creation and distribution of own bread by the sweat of your brow matter. goods and services: The greater the number Responsibility for one’s own dependents and
of people who are served, the wealthier the for needy neighbors matters. As Franklin D. society (and also the inventor) may become. Roosevelt stressed in his 1935 State of the This is a pedestrian and humble system, Union Address, “The lessons of history, con- but it serves the common good better than firmed by the evidence immediately before any other along some important dimensions, me, show conclusively that continued de- using a device that gives incentives to inven- pendence upon relief induces a spiritual dis- tors, discoverers, and creative persons in al- integration fundamentally destructive to the most all fields. In this humble way, the about- national fiber. To dole our relief in this way is to-become-wealthy are led to serve many (not to administer a narcotic, a subtle destroyer of all) elements of the common good. Incentives the human spirit.”2 drive them to serve more and more people. Persons struck by sudden misfortune (a This incentive system is not the perfect divorce, say, or the abrupt loss of a job, the ideal that purists might wish, yet Pope John surprise diagnosis of a terminal disease, or Paul II in Centesimus Annus (1991) praised an incapacitating automobile accident) of- the happy chance of having both the interests ten do need a helping hand. Given that hand, of the common good and the interests of the many are back up on their feet in just a year or human person served in one fell swoop: two, living without government help but with plenty of help from their families, churches, Moreover, man, who was created for freedom, and many associations. bears within himself the wound of original The ensemble of all of those institutions sin, which constantly draws him towards evil that support creative and inventive minds is and puts him in need of redemption. Not only is this doctrine an integral part of Christian what is meant by capitalism rightly under- revelation; it also has great hermeneutical stood. These include a polity and a culture value insofar as it helps one to understand that nourish the habits that create wealth human reality. Man tends towards good, but rather than merely consume it and that in- he is also capable of evil. He can transcend his still ambition, discipline, and self-denial for immediate interest and still remain bound to the sake of future good rather than merely in- it. The social order will be all the more stable, dulging in what one receives from others.
10 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity As the former motto of Amsterdam put it, generation can become oblivious to its mul- Commercium et Pax. Commerce needs and tiple living principles, live unworthily of them, encourages peace. It does so through its reli- hand over the keys, and walk out into darkness. ance on and encouragement of the rule of law. Only one generation is required. Yet in Without wise laws and policies, widespread practice, the downward slide usually begins commerce cannot prosper. Planning projects three or four generations earlier than the fi- that require time before being able to produce nal collapse. Our own generation sometimes goods requires the reliability of law. seems to be hurtling downward. The combination of the three systems— We have hardly begun to address the rapid the democratic republic, a creative and dy- decline in the social ecology of our time. Many namic economy, and an open, free, and plu- evils and self-destructive behaviors run ram- ralistic culture—in one has a proven modern pant. Moral ecology is the new frontier of po- record surpassed by none in raising up the litical economy: the culture in which the free poor. It generates unparalleled progress in society thrives—or destroys itself. The scouts every sphere from medicine to the cultivation at The Heritage Foundation who have con- of the arts, the spread of the rule of law, the tributed to and compiled this Index of Culture protection of natural rights, and the search and Opportunity are leading the way in the for justice for all. most crucial exploration of our time. Nothing, however, says that such a system cannot burn out into the darkness of human Michael Novak, retired American Enterprise history like a comet. That outcome depends on Institute George Frederick Jewett Scholar in each succeeding generation. The free society is Religion, Philosophy, and Public Policy, is an author, the most fragile of all societies because any one philosopher, and theologian.3
1. John Paul II, Centesimus Annus, May 1, 1991, § 25, http://w2.vatican.va/content/john-paul-ii/en/encyclicals/documents/hf_jp-ii_enc_01051991_centesimus-annus.html (accessed May 9, 2016). 2. Franklin D. Roosevelt, “Annual Message to Congress,” January 4, 1935, http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=14890 (accessed May 9, 2016). 3. This essay is revised and extracted in part from The Spirit of Democratic Capitalism Thirty Years Later (McLean, VA: Institute for Faith, Work, & Economics, 2015).
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 11
Section One Culture
Culture Summary
RIGHT WRONG • While the marriage rate ticked up slightly Culture Indicators TRACK TRACK between 2013 and 2014, it has been trend- Marriage Rate (p. 20) ing downward for decades. Between 2004 and 2014, the marriage rate dropped by Divorce Rate (p. 22) 8.3 marriages per 1,000 unmarried women, or nearly 20 percent. “[T]he declining Total Fertility Rate (p. 24) marriage rate is not so much a reflection Single-Parent Households (p. 26) that marriage is no longer desired, but that, in a culture of distrust and divorce, it Teen Drug Use (p. 28) is fragile,” write Amber and David Lapp. Abstinence Among High Schoolers (p. 30) • The divorce rate saw a minor drop during Abortion Rate (p. 32) the decade between 2004 and 2014, but it has been declining since it peaked in the Religious Attendance (p. 34) 1980s. “From 1979 to 2014, the divorce Volunteering (p. 36)
rate dropped from 5.3 per 1,000 to 3.2 per 1,000, a whopping 40 percent decrease. Violent Crime Rate (p. 38) But there is more to the story, and it should make us cautious in our celebra- tion,” explains Julie Baumgardner. • The abortion rate has declined steadily. Between 2001 and 2011, the abortion • From 2005 to 2015, the percentage of 12th rate declined by four abortions per 1,000 graders who use illicit drugs increased women of childbearing age. “The factors from 23.1 percent to 23.6 percent. “We underlying this decline and the contem- didn’t lose the drug war...we gave up on poraneous reduction in the number of it. Now, particularly in the teen popula- abortion clinics are multifaceted but en- tion, drug use is going up again,” writes couraging to those who hope to see human Seth Leibsohn. life respected,” writes Randall Wenger.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 15
Culture and the Challenge of Self-Government Scott Yenor
he future of our political community de- these things.” The “care of souls” and shap- Tpends in no small part on factors that ing of character are beyond the magistrate’s elude direct political control. Our public life control.1 suffers when individuals shirk their responsi- Locke treats these latter "private" con- bilities; when individuals exercise liberty re- cerns in his treatise, Some Thoughts Concern- sponsibly with a view to the long term, public ing Education.2 life appears healthier and government oper- The American regime has generally followed ates more effectively. Locke’s idea of limiting civil government to pro- Modern democracies are based on the tecting life, liberty, and property so that people distinction between private and public, or can arrange their lives responsibly in freedom. between civil society and civil government. Few statements draw clearer lines around civil
The private realm is the realm of individual government than the decisions of the Supreme freedom, rights, and duties, where individu- Court of the United States in Meyer v. Nebraska als can voluntarily associate with others to (1923) and Pierce v. Society of Sisters of the Holy accomplish important goals; the public realm Names of Jesus and Mary (1925). is where people meet common concerns that In Meyer, Nebraska had outlawed teach- individuals or voluntary organizations can- ing foreign languages to children before the not accomplish on their own. eighth grade, while the Oregon statute at John Locke was perhaps the first to develop issue in Pierce required parents to send all the distinction between private and public in eight- through 16-year-old children to public political thought. In his 1685 Letter Concern- schools. The Meyer Court declared the Ne- ing Toleration, writing specifically about tol- braska law an unconstitutional infringement eration of religious belief, Locke argued that on individual liberty and further held that: government should be limited to the public concerns or “civil interests” of “preserving [Liberty] denotes not merely liberty of bodily and advancing…life, liberty, health, and indo- restraint, but also the right of the individual lency of body; and the possession of outward to contract, or engage in any of the common occupations of life, to acquire useful knowl- things, such as money, lands, houses, furni- edge, to marry, establish a home and bring ture, and the like.” The “whole jurisdiction of up children, to worship God according to the the magistrate,” Locke continued, “reaches dictates of his own conscience, and generally only to these civil concernments,” and “all to enjoy these privileges long recognized at civil power, right and dominion, is bounded common law as essential to the orderly pursuit of happiness by free men.3 and confined to the only care of promoting
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 17 Pierce follows Meyer in providing a con- political community. The future depends on stitutional ground for the practice of paren- people’s initiative to learn and their pursuit of tal rights: education, work, and other life interests. To illustrate this point, the perpetuation of The fundamental theory of liberty upon which our political institutions and society depends all governments in this Union repose excludes on the private decisions of couples to have any general power of the State to standardize children and take responsibility for them: No its children by forcing them to accept instruc- tion from public teachers only. The child is children, no future citizens. No future citi- not a mere creature of the State; those who zens, no future political community. Recent nurture him and direct his destiny have the developments, however, suggest that a com- right, coupled with the high duty, to recognize ing “birth dearth” may threaten the future of and prepare him for additional obligations.4 self-government here and abroad.5 A shortage of well-educated citizens means a shortage of Individual choices about whom to marry, individuals who not only think through pub- whether to marry, whether to stay married, lic issues intelligently and broadly, but also whether to have children, how many children understand the need to take action to pass to have, and when, how to raise them, and oth- on the “blessings of liberty to ourselves and er questions are largely beyond the legitimate our posterity.” scope of modern liberal governments. Government cannot build these private These two Court decisions also point to families, nor can it force people to join civic
an important challenge to modern democra- associations. Yet both private families and cies—a challenge that these cultural indica- civic associations are common concerns be- tors evaluate our ability to meet. As Pierce cause they allow for the practice of individual relates, civil government can secure certain responsibility and personal virtues. Govern- rights, but people must couple these rights ments must avoid two problems in respect- with a sense of “high duty”; they must exer- ing private families and other institutions of cise rights responsibly and consistently in the civil society: first, it must not usurp their roles public interest. and leave them with little to do; and second, it Securing the freedom to marry does not must respect their integrity so that they can mean that people will marry (they may orga- accomplish their high duties. nize their relations outside of marriage) or Locke and the American Founders knew that they will necessarily stay married; that the future of free government depended Securing parental rights does not mean on married couples, families, churches, and that people will have children or that other private associations in civil society, they will necessarily do the job of parent- which they believed would flourish best in an ing responsibly; atmosphere of freedom. It is one of the great Securing the right to gain employment or accomplishments of the American regime to to get an education does not mean that peo- secure parental and marital rights, though ple will be employed or choose the right kind communities have burdened these rights on of learning for the world in which they must occasion. These two Court decisions demon- work; and strate that securing people’s rights, while es- Securing the right to conscience does not sential, is not by itself sufficient to ensure the mean that people will practice faith or follow responsible exercise of liberty. their consciences. Changes in opinion that bring about greater Generally, securing a right does not guar- celebration of “individual rights” and equal- antee the proper exercise of that right in a ity are relatively easy to secure in America; manner that is consistent either with the achieving change that emphasizes duties and demands of duty or with the needs of our responsibilities is more difficult. The social
18 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity and political costs of these changes lie behind the perpetuation of our political institutions many of our contemporary public crises. Fa- and to our culture of liberty. Healthy cultures miliar research linking family breakdown with honor those who exercise their high duty to poor educational outcomes and crime provides have and raise children responsibly. Human the most striking example of the problems that beings act to make healthy cultures that wel- result when parents ignore their high duty. It come life and honor responsible exercises of stands to reason that religious practice corre- human liberty. The future of self-government lates with a greater sense of such high duty and depends on making a healthy culture of lib- thus corresponds, on average, to more respon- erty and responsibility. sible marital and parental practices. We cannot through government easily What happens in marriage, family life, and “make” people exercise their liberty respon- religious practice is part of what constitutes a sibly or consistent with high duty. Tracking country’s culture. Culture is a manifestation cultural indicators allows us to make in- of core beliefs that shape how we live our lives, formed judgments about our culture’s health how we approach duties, and what we expect and to know better, as Lincoln famously said, civil government to do. What John Adams “whither we are tending” so that we can “bet- wrote during the American Revolution re- ter judge what to do and how to do it.”7 mains true today: The “foundation of nation- al morality must be laid in private families”6 Scott Yenor is currently a Visiting Fellow in and in the associations that people form in American Political Thought in the B. Kenneth civil society. Simon Center for Principles and Politics, of the Stronger churches and institutions in civil Institute for Family, Community, and Opportunity, society dedicated to supporting families in the at The Heritage Foundation and a professor of exercise of their high duties are essential to political science at Boise State University.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 19 CHANGES 10–year ▼ 8.3 5–year ▼ 2.1 1–year ▲ 0.6
Marriage Rate MARRIAGES PER 1,000 UNMARRIED FEMALES AGES 15 AND OLDER From 2004 to 2014, 10yr 5yr 1yr the marriage rate dropped by 8.3 marriages per 1,000 unmarried women ages 15 and older.
SOURCES: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, and U.S. Census Bureau, Current
Population Survey.
A Generation Conflicted About Marriage Amber and David Lapp
hen we interviewed Carly, 31, in the sum- completely supportive: They are conflicted Wmer of 2010, she had been in an on-again, about marriage.2 They hope to get and stay off-again cohabiting relationship with the father married, providing for their own children the of her child for about 12 years.1 Never married, she family stability that many of them did not called marriage a “piece of paper.” One year later, have growing up. One national study found however, she had broken up with her longtime that in 2001–2002, more than 80 percent of boyfriend and was engaged to a different man. young adults said that marriage was impor- Why did she accept his marriage proposal? tant in their life plan.3 But many are also un- Contradicting what she said a year before, certain about how to achieve that aspiration she told us, “Everybody says, ‘Oh, it’s just a and unsure about whether marriage retains piece of paper.’ But that piece of paper is… the meaning they believe it should have. more binding than just really being together.” Many of them witnessed the separation or She explained that her experience in a long- divorce of their parents as children, or bare- term cohabiting relationship had taught her ly knew their dad or mom. Others saw their that marriage was indeed different. parents stay in marriages marked by abuse, As we learned in our interviews with over drinking, drugs, or misery. Others admired 100 young adults in a mostly white working- their parents’ marriage but were shaken by class town in Ohio, most young people are the divorces of relatives or friends, or by hear- neither adamantly opposed to marriage nor say about high divorce rates.
20 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity The legacy of the divorce culture is trauma In other words, the declining marriage and a crisis of trust. A study conducted in the rate is not so much a reflection that marriage mid-2000s found that of 122 working- and is no longer desired, but that, in a culture of middle-class young people in cohabiting re- distrust and divorce, it is fragile. lationships, more than two-thirds expressed The bad news is that young Americans have concerns about divorce that were related to less confidence in marriage than their grand- their views about marriage. Many respon- parents did and are carrying profound wounds. dents said that they were reluctant to marry The good news is that, as one adult child of di- because they wanted to “do it right,” by which vorce said of his peers from fragmented fami- they meant marrying only once.4 lies, “They lived it and they want a change.” As That legacy of divorce is reinforced by the another adult child of divorce told us, “I think cultural deregulation of sex and dating. As my home life as a kid made me more driven to divorce-weary young people form their own be like, ‘I’m not gonna have a broken home.’” romantic relationships, they hear from the Many young people are afraid of marriage, culture that “sex is sex, regardless of who it’s but that does not mean they are giving up on with,” love should be “effortless,” and “You it. If anything, they possess a hard-earned un- got one life to live, and you got to live it the derstanding about the suffering wrought by way you want to live it.” Those messages un- family fragmentation. They want a better life dermine their pursuit of a trusting and resil- for their own children, and they deserve the ient lifelong relationship. support of everyone from cultural leaders to As a result, many young Americans are left policymakers to business leaders as they seek on the outside looking in, admiring marriage that better way. but paralyzed with anxiety about becoming another divorce statistic or worried that their Amber and David Lapp, co-investigators of the boyfriend or girlfriend is not trustworthy. Love and Marriage in Middle America Project, Thus, more Americans are delaying marriage are Research Fellows at the Institute for Family Studies and Affiliate Scholars at the Institute for (longer, and more (though still the minority are forgoing marriage altogether. American Values.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 21 CHANGES 10–year ▼ 0.5 5–year ▼ 0.3 1–year ▼ 0.1
Divorce Rate NUMBER OF DIVORCES PER 1,000 TOTAL POPULATION From 2004 to 2014, 10yr 5yr 1yr the divorce rate remained relatively stable, decreasing by 0.5 divorces per 1,000 people.
NOTE: Data in this chart are based on divorces per 1,000 total
population, i.e., the crude divorce rate. In 1996, the National Center for Health Statistics began collecting only provisional divorce rate data, based on preliminary counts of divorce certificates from states. See Indicator Sources on p. 116 for further detail. SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National
Center for Health Statistics.
Divorce in Our Nation Julie Baumgardner
he latest data on divorce might lead one to conclude that marriage can be a source of Tto believe that we are actually winning pain and loss. Widespread divorce led people the war when it comes to fewer divorces and to believe that although relationships are more couples staying married. From 1979 to good, relationship definition is risky. 2014, the divorce rate dropped from 5.3 per According to a 2004 study, Gen Xers spent 1,000 to 3.2 per 1,000, a whopping 40 per- their formative years as one of the least-par- cent decrease. ented and least-nurtured generations in U.S. But there is more to the story, and it should history.1 Census data show that almost half make us cautious in our celebration. Many of Gen Xers come from broken homes, and teens are skeptical about marriage, having 40 percent were latchkey children.2 Today, seen their parents’ marriages crumble or nev- Generation Xers are the parents of teens and er even form. Young adults question their own young adults. judgment about making a long-term commit- In a 2005 Journal of Sociology article, Kate ment in marriage. Well-meaning parents who Hughes states, “Adult children of divorced want to help young adults minimize risk are parents’ failed marriages and broken families sending messages such as, “Don’t marry young. brought a fragility that led to risk-diminish- Establish yourself first. Be sure—VERY sure.” ing strategies.”3 Gen Xers took these messages Generation X children witnessed the of apprehension a step further to avoidance emergence of a divorce culture, leading them and began to form relationships that were
22 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity not well-defined. The result is a generation people can create a healthy—not perfect— of young people who believe that marriage marriage. We need to teach people how really is just a piece of paper and, ultimately, to communicate well, to manage conflict, not helpful. and to regulate their emotions. Myriads Cohabitation is now the common first union of people seek to form relationships, but for young adults, and living together precedes they are ill-equipped to navigate life, most marriages while fewer cohabiting rela- much less have a healthy marriage. tionships transition to marriage.4 Young people fail to see the value of a healthy marriage de- • We need to spread research-based spite a significant body of research indicating truths in a non-judgmental way re- better outcomes for both adults and children. garding cohabitation’s impact on Our country did not arrive at this point adults and children, the consequences overnight, and change will take time. Many when families fail to form, and simi- promising initiatives across the country are lar issues. People deserve to know the teaching healthy relationship skills. research findings, for example, that Practitioners helping people develop stable adolescents living in cohabiting-parent relationships and form healthy marriages know families—whether both are biological that many youths who initially say that they do parents of the child or just one is—have not desire marriage overcome that skepticism. higher levels of anti-social behavior, such After attending a relationship skills class, most as drug abuse, running away from home, say they actually still aspire to marry while being violent behavior, being suspended from cautiously optimistic about their ability to dis- school, or getting arrested.6 Similarly, cern whether or not someone would be a good rates of serious abuse are lowest in intact marriage partner. There are many things that families, four times higher in an unmar- we can do culturally to increase these young ried-parent family, and eight times higher people’s chances of achieving their aspiration. when a parent is cohabiting with a partner
who is not the biological parent (usually • We must do a better job of educating the mother cohabiting with a boyfriend).7 people. Young people and parents alike Major media campaigns and other initia- typically believe, regardless of background tives across civil society can help spread or life experience, that their chances of di- this kind of information. vorcing are 50 percent. They do not know that their chances of divorce decrease if • We need to teach people that you their parents are still married, they gradu- cannot “test drive” marriage. Any- ate from college, they do not have a child one who has been married recognizes before marrying, they do not cohabitate that being married takes more than love. before marriage, they are not poor, they It requires commitment to figure out have the same religious values, and they how to dance together. Living together participate in premarital preparation.5 It is more about independence than it is is not rocket science, but it is information. about interdependence.
• We must address unrealistic expec- Healthy marriage matters to adults, chil- tations head-on. Whether someone dren, and society at large. No one is exempt believes they lack what it takes to have a from helping to bring back marriage. It mat- healthy marriage or aspires to the magical ters now, and it matters for future generations. white-picket-fence perfection, parents, places of faith, community initiatives, and Julie Baumgardner is President and Chief schools need to discuss how two imperfect Executive Officer of First Things First.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 23 CHANGES 10–year ▼ 0.19 5–year ▼ 0.14 1–year ▲ 0.01
Total Fertility BIRTHS PER WOMAN Rate 10yr 5yr 1yr From 2004 to 2014, the total fertility rate declined by 0.19 births per woman.
NOTES: The total fertility rate is the average expected number of Hispanic children a woman would have during her childbearing years. Black Since 1989, Hispanics have been All Races categorized separately from White whites and blacks. SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics,
National Vital Statistics Report.
Having Children Helps—Not Hurts—Our Future Mollie Ziegler Hemingway
ournalist Tina Brown opened the 2016 what are the implications for the country as a JWomen in the World Summit in New York whole if they come to believe that? City by lamenting the state of women in the We may find out. For the past 10 years, United States. To make her case that the situ- America’s fertility rate has been in decline. ation for women was perilous, she cited a curi- The fertility rate refers to the average num- ous data point: Birthrates for poor women in ber of children that the average woman has Texas had increased in recent years. over her lifetime. It first dipped below the Brown is hardly alone in making this dubi- “replacement rate” of 2.1 in the early 1970s ous connection between female welfare and and has largely remained there since. The birthrates. In January, 113 female attorneys replacement rate is the rate needed to main- signed a brief to the Supreme Court assert- tain the population of a country without im- ing that their economic opportunities had ex- migration. A declining rate poses risks to the panded thanks to having had abortions earlier economy, the military, entitlement programs, in their careers and education.1 the growth of mediating institutions such as Men and women in the United States are houses of worship, and community health. routinely told that children are a threat to As Professors Walter R. Schumm and Ja- their economic opportunity. Is that true? And son S. Carroll have shown, falling fertility
24 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity rates increase the “dependency ratio,” or the goal. Millennial women who seek marriage number of citizens receiving entitlements say that having a spouse with a steady job is relative to the number of workers.2 This is of great importance, but labor force participa- likely to mean increased government spend- tion rates and wages have fallen for younger ing on health care and increased taxes on men in recent decades, making it harder for those remaining in the workforce. men to appear marriageable. Declining fertility rates lead to worker It is not surprising, then, that Millennial shortages, and that can result in increased women are having fewer children. In fact, investment in pension funds and a resulting they are having children at the slowest pace of decrease in productive investments, leading any generation in U.S. history, declining more to lower rates of economic growth. Further, than 15 percent in five years, according to one decreased fertility reduces the number of study by the Urban Institute.6 extended family members that make up the That is a shame, because economic mo- warp and woof of family support systems. bility across generations is tied more to “Previous generations feared a population healthy families than to any policy or eco- explosion,” reports The Wall Street Journal. nomic program. Men and women who mar- “But for today’s global economy, the problem ry and raise children together have better is just the opposite. Falling fertility rates and economic, psychological, and health out- aging workforces will plague the developed comes than their peers who do not do so. In world.”3 the study For Richer, for Poorer: How Family Economic hardship is one cause of the fall- Structures Economic Success in America, for ing fertility rate. One recent massive study example, family life scholars W. Bradford concluded that living through a recession Wilcox and Robert I. Lerman report that men means that some women will never have and women enjoy substantially higher family children, even after economic prospects rise. incomes, compared to their peers, when they Janet Currie and Hannes Schwandt, health marry.7
-economists at Princeton University, report Declining fertility is not good for Ameri that more than 150,000 women who were in can economic opportunity. It also comes at a their early 20s in 2008 will forgo having any more personal cost to many women. Around children in their lifetimes as a result of that 40 percent of U.S. women approaching the economic disruption.4 end of their fertility report having had fewer Additionally, Millennials, more than any children than they wished, according to the previous American generation, are delaying General Social Survey.8 The ramifications of marriage. In fact, they are delaying most of the declining fertility are so broad and deep that steps associated with adulthood, from moving individuals at all levels of society may soon out of their childhood home to getting a full- come to wish that we had more children. time job and having children.5 Millennials are less likely to report wanting to get married Mollie Ziegler Hemingway is a Senior Editor at and face economic barriers to achieving that The Federalist.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 25 CHANGES 10–year ▲ 2.2 5–year ▲ 1.2 1–year ▲ 0.3
Single-Parent PERCENTAGE OF CHILDREN LIVING Households IN SINGLE-PARENT HOUSEHOLDS 10yr 5yr 1yr From 2005 to 2015, the percentage of children living in single-parent households increased by 2.1 percentage points.
NOTE: For methodology on estimating children living in single-parent households, please see p. 116. SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau,
Current Population Survey.
Reinvigorating Family Life: Critical to Restoring Opportunity Eric Cochling
ny married person with children realizes individuals to avoid poverty. The “marriage- Ahow incredibly tough single parenting then-children” step, along with the other as- must be. With two parents, the job is daunting. pects of the success sequence—graduating A single parent who successfully raises a child from high school and obtaining a stable, de- does what can only be described as heroic. Be- cent-paying job—paves the way for avoiding tween providing financially, emotionally, and poverty and achieving a middle-class income. spiritually, a single parent has an enormous Of those who follow all three elements of this amount of responsibility. By its very nature, sequence, only 2 percent will be in poverty. single parenting means—in all but the rarest Among those who do not, about three-fourths of cases—fewer resources, less time, more will experience poverty in any given year. stress, and more struggle than typically exists Haskins and Sawhill are not alone in their in a two-parent household. assessment of the key role of an intact family It is no wonder, then, that in Creating an in achieving life success. Raj Chetty and his Opportunity Society,1 authors Ron Haskins colleagues from Harvard University and the and Isabel Sawhill cite marriage before the University of California–Berkeley reached birth of children as one of the key steps in similar conclusions in a 2014 study of oppor- what they call the “success sequence” for tunity and economic mobility in the United
26 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity States.2 They cited family structure as one of often struggle to find good-paying jobs. Young five key factors for economic mobility across adults—especially young men—without a job generations. Specifically, they found signifi- may be seen as less marriageable but become cantly less mobility for individuals from sin- parents nonetheless. When this happens, in- gle-parent households. The Heritage Foun- stead of a success sequence, a person is more dation’s Robert Rector has made a similarly likely to be set on the path of the poverty cycle, compelling case for the antipoverty signifi- which quickly becomes generational, absent cance of intact families, estimating that mar- significant change or intervention. riage reduces the probability of child poverty Unabated, this decades-long trend will by more than 80 percent.3 mean very predictable things for our country: Given these consistent findings about the progressively higher levels of poverty and the role of family structure and the ideological di- brokenness related to both poverty and bro- versity of the groups and individuals reaching ken relationships. As poverty grows, demands the same conclusion, it is disheartening to see on an already vast welfare system will grow. that the percentage of children in America be- Since the start of the War on Poverty, also ing raised by single parents continues to grow. about 50 years ago, federal spending on pov- While the trend is not surprising—after all, it erty relief has grown by over 1,600 percent.4 has gone on for nearly 50 years with barely Given the growth in single-parent homes— an interruption—what it tells us about the and the even faster rise in unwed childbear- future should be of grave concern to anyone ing—we should expect that trend to continue who cares about poverty and the countless well into the future. challenges that adults and children in single- Sadly, the War on Poverty has taught us parent households face. The children being that while it is possible to intervene in the raised in these households, through no fault lives of children and adults when family falls of their own, are bound to face struggles that short, those interventions are expensive and their similarly situated friends from intact cannot fully compensate for what a stable
-homes will not face. family life would have provided. To reinvigo When parents misstep in the success se- rate opportunity in America, we have to start quence, their children’s steps to success— by restoring the health and vitality of the high school graduation, employment and American family. Nothing less will do. intact family formation—are more difficult to achieve. Children raised by single moms Eric Cochling is Executive Vice President are less likely to graduate high school. With- and General Counsel at the Georgia Center out a high school diploma, young adults for Opportunity.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 27 CHANGES 10–year ▲ 0.5 5–year ▼ 0.2 1–year ▼ 0.1
Teen Drug Use PERCENTAGE OF 12TH GRADERS WHO USED ILLICIT DRUGS* IN PAST MONTH From 2005 to 2015, 10yr 5yr 1yr the percentage of 12th graders reporting current drug use increased by 0.5 percentage point.
* Illicit drug use refers to the use of marijuana, LSD and other hallucinogens, cocaine and crack cocaine, heroin, or any use of narcotics without a doctor’s prescription, including amphetamines, sedatives (barbiturates), or tranquilizers.
.SOURCE: Monitoring the Future
Teen Drug Use: Cultural Amnesia, Current Harm Seth Leibsohn
hen it comes to teen drug use, not only of public policy success. Just imagine what Ware we on the wrong track, but things would be said about policies and results that are getting worse. This is not a mysterious cut fatherlessness or poverty or budget defi- happenstance. First, note two data points cits by more than half. Too few remember this in the accompanying chart: The high-water success, and too many are ignoring the les- mark of teen drug use in America was 1979; sons learned, which is why the trajectory of the low-water mark was 1992. However, since teen drug use is back up and getting worse. 1992, the share of 12th graders reporting re- How were we successful? By taking a page cent drug use has increased 64 percent. These from the first step in substance abuse recov- facts should immediately shape the conversa- ery: The country recognized that there was a tion, but, sadly, they do not. problem and got serious about dealing with What these data reveal is the fallacy of the it. As the nation’s first drug czar, William J. commonplace notion that “keeping drugs il- Bennett, put it, practically the entire coun- legal doesn’t work.” In fact, reducing any so- try—from law enforcement to Hollywood to cial or policy problem by more than half in athletes to political leaders—rolled up their the course of about a decade is the definition sleeves and went to work:
28 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity Those old enough to remember will recall become more potent and dangerous and as how much the cultural message used to be more and more scientific research is estab- anti-drug. There were the “This is your brain lishing its harms—particularly in the teen on drugs” ads that were ubiquitous…. There 3 were sit-coms aimed at children with anti- and adolescent brain. Research shows that drug messages. President George H.W. Bush the more drugs—particularly marijuana—are and First Lady Nancy Reagan, in their tenures, destigmatized, the more the perception of gave innumerable speeches on the harms of harm goes down, and as the perception of drug use.1 harm goes down, initiation and use increase.4 Again, all of this is taking place just as the What resulted? Drug use in America plum- dangers are becoming more and more widely meted. We didn’t lose the drug war; we began known and understood by the scientific and winning—big—and then we gave up on it. Now, medical communities. This is public policy particularly in the teen population, drug use cognitive dissonance, and it helps to explain is going up again. We need to ask ourselves a why states like Colorado that have pioneered few questions about the changes in the cul- the legalization movement have not only the ture and the different cultural messages we highest teen marijuana use rate, but also the now send in light of this growing problem. highest overall teen drug use rate in the na- When was the last time anyone saw an anti- tion: a whopping 60 percent higher than the drug or “this is your brain on drugs” ad? When national average.5 was the last time anyone saw an anti-drug The efforts to destigmatize and legalize message embedded into a popular television drugs have caused great harm and have sig- show or movie? How often has the President naled the greatest surrenders in our previ- ever spoken to this issue? (To my knowledge, ous efforts that kept drug use low. They are the only time this President, a man uniquely upending decades of hard work to prevent gifted at attracting the attention and serious- substance abuse and leading to greater costs ness of our youth, delivered a major speech in treatment, rehabilitation, accidents, en-
on substance or drug abuse was this year—his forcement, and criminal violations, as well as last in office—in Atlanta). true education deficits. This is the opposite of Today, popular television shows (still good public policy and good youth policy. In- downloaded and aired “On Demand”) like stead of building a culture that makes greater Breaking Bad, Weeds, and High Maintenance health, education, and opportunity available laud, celebrate, and make heroes of drug users to all, this is how a society harms itself. and drug dealers. As the President of Show- The tragedy here is that we know what has time said of Weeds (where the heroes and worked in the recent past. We simply cannot laugh lines are about a drug-dealing family): afford to surrender those lessons before it is “Our ratings were va-va-va-voom! Who said too late. hedonism is passe?”2 The popular toy store Toys R Us had to face protests before discon- Seth Leibsohn is the host of the Seth Leibsohn tinuing the sale of a Breaking Bad doll com- Show, heard nightly in Phoenix, Arizona, on plete with a fake bag of cash and crystal meth. KKNT/960am; Chairman of Arizonans for As for the law, opposition to legalization Responsible Drug Policy; and Chairman of of drugs is at an all-time low, especially as it NotMYKid. relates to marijuana, just as marijuana has
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 29 CHANGES 10–year ▲ 2.5 6–year ▼ 0.5 2–year ▲ 1.0
Abstinence PERCENTAGE OF 12TH GRADE STUDENTS Among High WHO EVER HAD SEX 10yr 6yr 2yr Schoolers From 2003 to 2013, the percentage of 12th grade students who 12th grade had ever had sex increased by 2.5 percentage points.
9th grade
SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National
Youth Risk Behavior Survey.
Responding to the Sexual Revolution with Love and Fidelity Caitlin La Ruffa
ex has become the expected price of entry experimentation (while living largely con- Sfor the dating market today. In response to ventional family lives themselves) and early numerous forces driving the cost of sex down- sex education that explicitly introduces and ward over the past few generations, more and teaches risky behavior to young teens—have more high school seniors are engaging in sex- increased the demand for earlier and more ual relationships as they begin their foray into frequent sexual experiences. the adult dating and marriage scene. Perhaps no other single factor has in- The media’s ubiquitous portrayal of casual fluenced the cost of sex more than read- sex as lighthearted fun with limited conse- ily available contraception. The pill and its quences has created a cultural perception of counterparts have influenced our collective sex as costless. Pornography, through its abil- conscience so greatly that sex and reproduc- ity to shape perceptions of “normal” behav- tion hardly maintain their link in the Millen- ior and by acting as a competitor (mostly to nial mind. women) in the dating market, also has exerted The trend toward early commencement of downward pressure on the price of sex. Other sexual activity is linked to a greater number of cultural influences—like the voices of elites lifetime sexual partners; higher risk of sexual- who preach self-actualization through sexual ly transmitted infection; increased likelihood
30 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity of unwed pregnancy (despite easy access to culture has scattered them, we see the sexual- nearly free contraception); abortion; and sin- ization of childhood and the breakdown of the gle parenthood. More partners and quicker family in a vicious cycle. initial sexual encounters are negatively cor- We need to impart to the next generation related with lifelong marital happiness and fi- an understanding of sexuality that grounds it delity, both empirically and intuitively.1 Early in human reality—which includes human bi- entanglement is also linked to poor decision- ology. We need to instill a sense of intentional- making in spousal selection,2 the effect of ity in dating and teach authentic relationship which is compounded by creating a cycle of skills, not just “condom negotiation.”5 These broken marriages and families. include skills like those taught in Dr. John Rates of depression and anxiety, condi- Van Epp’s Relationship Attachment Model or tions for which nearly one-quarter of Ameri- Dr. Scott Stanley’s Sliding vs. Deciding frame- can women are clinically treated,3 are higher work, both of which show students the pro- among those who engage in casual sex, and gression of a healthy relationship.6 women who “hook up” are more likely to re- In essence, we need to focus less on teach- port feeling disrespected by their partners.4 ing young people the mechanics of sex and Add to this the current teen and twentysome- more on instilling the virtues of love and thing generation’s lack of hope in the possi- prudence. We need to give postponement of bility of lifelong faithful marriage. While the sexual activity a purpose greater than mere divorce rate among the college-educated has utilitarian pregnancy avoidance, especially stabilized, among those with a high school but since recent research shows that many young no college degree—a majority of Americans— women in middle America are largely ambiva- the divorce rate continues to rise. lent about avoiding pregnancy.7 The generation of children who grew up Young people themselves are starting to under full-blown no-fault divorce are suffer- recognize the harmful effects of the sexual ing the consequences of their parents’ (and revolution ideology that they have been
-lawmakers’) decisions. They have never been spoon-fed from a tender age. Many have dedi taught, either in formal relationship educa- cated themselves, through the work of Love tion or by the lived example in the classroom and Fidelity Network and other ministries of the family home, what healthy, loving, and organizations, to educating their peers in faithful relationships look like. They are ter- the pursuit of authentic love and giving them rified of repeating their parents’ mistakes, but hope that lifelong marriage is both attainable their attempted solutions—like overwhelm- and worth sacrificing to maintain. ing hesitancy toward commitment and avoid- We should applaud their efforts and follow ance of relationship labels—actually perpetu- their lead, recognizing that this generation ate the problem. does not want to live enslaved to their sexual To address this generational cycle of heart- desires but simply has never been shown an- ache and broken relationships, we need to be- other way. gin by piecing back together the puzzle of love, marriage, sex, and children. When these piec- Caitlin La Ruffa is Executive Director of the Love es are well integrated, we witness the flour- and Fidelity Network. ishing of family life. Conversely, when our
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 31 CHANGES 10–year ▼ 4.0 5–year ▼ 3.0 1–year ▼ 0.8
Abortion Rate ABORTIONS PER 1,000 WOMEN AGES 15–44 From 2001 to 2011, the 10yr 5yr 1yr abortion rate declined by 4 abortions per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44.
TOTAL NUMBER OF ABORTIONS, IN MILLIONS
SOURCE: Alan Guttmacher Institute.
Pro-Life Convictions, Lower Demand for Abortions Randall Wenger
ood news for the unborn: Abortions have per thousand in 1980 to 17 per thousand in Gbeen in steady decline. The factors un- 2011. Abortions dropped another 12 percent derlying this decline and the contemporane- since 2010 (based on 2013 and 2014 data, de- ous reduction in the number of abortion clin- pending on the state), with some of the big- ics are multifaceted but encouraging to those gest declines in states with few restrictions who hope to see human life respected. like Hawaii, New Mexico, and Nevada.1 Since 2010, efforts in numerous states have Laws alone explain only part of the story. resulted in a record increase in laws that have Increased pro-life sentiment accounts for the a positive impact on life. Everyone agrees that significant reductions even in liberal states. they have had an effect on the abortion rate, but As our increasingly pro-life youth reach child- a state-by-state analysis reveals a steady de- bearing age, their attitude on the rights of the cline in abortions and abortion clinics in both unborn as well as their ideal family size have conservative states with new abortion restric- affected both their views on whether abortion tions and liberal states without any restrictions. should be legal and their individual responses In 1990, there were 1.6 million abortions, to unplanned pregnancies. but that number fell steadily to 1.1 million in In 1991, 36 percent of 18-year-olds to 2011. Likewise, the abortion rate fell from 29 29-year-olds believed that abortion should
32 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity be legal in all circumstances. That number This industry has behaved like others: An dropped to 24 percent by 2009.2 Likewise, a industry reaches capacity, large providers 2013 survey revealed that 49 percent of Ameri- grow, and smaller providers get squeezed out. cans believe abortion is morally wrong in con- Not only has demand for abortions decreased, trast to 15 percent who believe it is morally but clinics have far fewer clients for other ser- acceptable.3 vices. Partly because of the Affordable Care America’s youth have grown up seeing ul- Act, women who formerly received reproduc- trasound photos and videos that show them- tive health care services at abortion provid- selves yawning, blinking, and sucking their ers now go to medical providers within their thumbs inside their mothers’ wombs. This insurance networks. This problem for abor- may help explain why our youth who find tion clinics was compounded by reallocation themselves with an unexpected pregnancy are of governmental funding streams on which more likely to want to keep the baby. Addition- many clinics had come to rely. ally, women ages 18 to 29 are much more likely Moreover, Planned Parenthood, which re- than previous generations to view three to ceives significant government subsidies, has four children as an ideal family size,4 thus, un- been steadily eating market share, building expected pregnancies may be viewed more as larger urban clinics, and driving competitors an opportunity than as a constraint. With the out of business. The effect of this increased youngest women being more pro-life, we can capacity on competition is the same as the ef- expect that the abortion rate will continue to fect of a Lowe’s or Home Depot when it moves decline as that generation replaces its elders. into an area and the local hardware store clos- Some states have sought to protect ma- es or the so-called Walmartization of America, ternal health for those who seek abortion by where smaller, locally run stores are unable passing laws that require abortion providers to compete with the national box-store giant. to meet the same health regulations that ap- The massive national leader in the abortion ply to other providers of outpatient surger- business is creating conditions that make it
ies. Abortion providers that chose not to meet difficult if not impossible for other smaller these basic standards closed. The threat of providers to survive.6 closure resulted in lawsuits in some states. In For those who are concerned about human fact, at the time of writing, we await a decision rights for the unborn, this is good news. Abor- from the U.S. Supreme Court on the constitu- tion clinics are shutting down, and an increas- tionality of such a law in Texas. ingly pro-life demographic is likely to lead to A key issue in these cases is whether these additional, sensible pro-life reforms and re- safety standards will undermine access to duced demand for abortion. abortion due to the closure of clinics. While these laws certainly had some effect on clin- Randall Wenger is Chief Counsel of the ics, closures have been occurring steadily for Independence Law Center. decades, with a record 2,908 abortion provid- ers in the 1980s having shrunk to 1,720 today.5
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 33 CHANGES 10–year ▼ 4.8 6–year ▼ 1.4 2–year ▼ 1.5
Religious PERCENTAGE ATTENDING RELIGIOUS SERVICES Attendance 10yr 6yr 2yr From 2004 to 2014, the percentage of Rarely/ Never Americans attending religious services weekly declined by 4.8 percentage points. Weekly
Monthly Yearly
SOURCE: General Social Survey.
Religiosity and the Future of Freedom Daniel Mark
t should be no surprise that the latest data virtue. Many non-religious people are virtuous, Iindicate a decline in religious attendance. It but non-religious communities that fruitfully is widely reported that the fastest-growing re- instill virtue in the next generation are rare. ligious group in America is the “nones,” those For this reason and others, political philoso- who answer “none” when asked on surveys phers and sociologists recognize that religious about their religious affiliation.1 From 2004 to practice contributes to the common good. 2014, the percentage of Americans attending Religious practice—measured by indicators religious services weekly declined by 4.8 per- like frequency of religious attendance—is asso- centage points. This is not encouraging news ciated with a range of positive social outcomes. for America. These include better health, education, relational, At the time of our Founding, it was well and general welfare outcomes.2 understood that the Republic depended on a The United States is blessed with a unique virtuous citizenry. The Founders designed a combination of robust religious freedom and system of limited government meant to with- vibrant religious life. As a member of the U.S. stand a shortfall of virtue, but even they knew Commission on International Religious Free- that virtue was the key to success in the re- dom, I have seen how severely religious free- publican experiment. dom is restricted—and how severely religious History teaches that religion is the main practice of the “wrong” kind is persecuted—in vehicle for the promotion and transmission of so many places around the world.
34 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity Although the problems in America are not of public policy, especially with respect to re- comparable, domestic religious freedom is ligious freedom. The First Amendment com- nonetheless under attack in its own way here. prises a bundle of freedoms, including speech, What is frightening about the decline in re- association, and religion, that ensure the right ligion in America, especially as indicated by of all citizens to live according to the dictates some of the most salient indicators such as of their conscience and their God, whether religious attendance, is that it portends nega- alone or in groups, in private or in public. tively for religious freedom. We are learning Like all of our natural rights, our “first that people need to understand why religion freedom” is our birthright, and it is one that is important in order to understand why reli- Americans, whose nation’s Founding exem- gious freedom is important. plified this idea, should work to fortify in law In this way, religious practice is just as signif- and in culture. But Americans would do well icant a factor in supporting religious freedom also to remember that we tend not to value as religious freedom is in supporting religious the freedoms we do not exercise. practice. That is, whereas religious freedom ensures the conditions necessary for religious Daniel Mark is an Assistant Professor of Political attendance, religious attendance fosters the Science and the Navy ROTC Battalion Professor at culture necessary to defend religious freedom. Villanova University. The state of religiosity in America there- fore raises critical questions about the future
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 35 CHANGES 10–year ▼ 3.9 5–year ▼ 1.4 1–year ▼ 0.4
Volunteering PERCENTAGE OF ADULTS VOLUNTEERING From 2005 to 2015, 10yr 5yr 1yr the percentage of adults who volunteered declined by 3.9 percentage points.
NOTE: Figures are based on an annual survey of volunteering conducted in the month of September. SOURCE: U.S. Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Improving the Quantity and Quality of America’s Volunteerism Brian Fikkert
olunteerism dropped in 2015, continuing a focused on material progress as the source of Vdecade-long trend in which the percentage happiness.2 of adults who volunteer has declined by a to- Materialism is necessarily self-centered, tal of 3.9 percentage points. Regrettably, these while volunteerism is others-centered. Hence, recent declines are part of a century-long de- it is not surprising that researchers are find- crease in rates of volunteerism in America,1 a ing materialistic people to be less likely to trend rooted in fundamental issues that hin- volunteer—a fact that explains at least some of der not only the quantity, but also the quality the decline in the quantity of volunteerism in of our volunteerism. America.3 But materialism also affects thequal - One of the most important of these issues ity of our volunteerism. For example, consider is widespread materialism: the belief that volunteerism targeted at alleviating poverty. happiness comes from acquiring more pos- Because Americans tend to think of pover- sessions. Although the seeds of materialism ty in material terms, our approaches to help- have been present since America’s incep- ing the poor often tend toward merely provid- tion, a combination of philosophical, eco- ing them with material resources: dispensing nomic, and social forces in the past century food, ladling soup, and giving out clothing. has resulted in a culture that is increasingly In times of crisis, such handouts are the
36 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity appropriate response, but when low-income community could do on its own—thereby individuals or communities are in a chronic undermining local initiative, ownership, and state of poverty, this approach amounts to stewardship. Similarly, such trips often dis- treating symptoms rather than address- pense clothing and shoes, which can under- ing the underlying causes of their condition. mine local businesses and create dependence There are deeper forces at work that must on the outsiders.6 be addressed. If we listen carefully to the poor, we can Do More, But Do It Differently hear them longing for more than just greater Evidence and experience show that we consumption, for they commonly express need to use more relational approaches, walk- feelings of shame, inferiority, social isolation, ing alongside poor people instead of treating and powerlessness. These problems involve them as objects of our assistance.7 This en- far more than a lack of material things, and gages poor people as full participants in the simply handing out more material resources process, building on their assets and abilities cannot solve them. in order to restore their dignity and capacity. While human beings are partly material— The goal in such an approach is not simply to we have bodies and real physical needs—both increase the material condition of poor peo- the wisdom of the ages and scientific evidence ple, but also to help them experience greater teach us that human beings are hardwired for flourishing in their relationships with God, relationships: with God, self, others, and the self, others, and the environment. environment.4 More often than not, it is the One example is the Circles of Support mod- brokenness in these foundational relation- el.8 In this approach, the poor person chooses ships that leads to material poverty, but these and leads a team of “allies” who surround the relationships cannot be repaired by handouts person with encouragement, community, ac- of material resources alone.5 In fact, handouts countability, and various forms of assistance. can make these relationships worse. In addition, the allies provide access to cru-
cial social and professional networks and can How Can a Material Approach even provide advocacy when systemic injus- to Poverty Do Harm? tice is an issue. Simply providing handouts of material re- One key to more and better volunteerism sources to poor people can exacerbate their is the rejection of materialism in favor of a re- feelings of shame and inferiority and under- lational understanding of human nature. As mine the development of their own skills and we make this shift, we open up possibilities resources. As a result, handouts can render for greater human flourishing both for the poor people even more powerless than they helpers and for those who are being helped. were before they received the “help.” Short-term trips to low-income com- Brian Fikkert is Founder and President of the munities abroad often provide prime exam- Chalmers Center for Economic Development at ples of this dynamic. Volunteers rush in to Covenant College. build houses and dig wells—things that the
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 37 CHANGES 10–year ▼ 97.7 5–year ▼ 66.4 1–year ▼ 3.6
Violent Crime NUMBER OF VIOLENT CRIMES PER 100,00 PEOPLE Rate 10yr 5yr 1yr From 2004 to 2014, the violent crime rate declined by 97.7 crimes per 100,000 people.
SOURCE: Federal Bureau of Investigation.
Families, Churches, and Crime Prevention Ken Blackwell
oliticians often argue that the solution to figures in a child’s life to provide leadership Preducing crime is more government pro- and security is vitally important for a child in grams or building bigger jails. Yet government many ways, both physically and emotionally. cannot adequately address the underlying Researchers find, for example, that: problems of criminal behavior or fill the holes in people’s lives. • Children raised in non-intact homes are What families need more than government more likely to engage in violent crimes;1 programs are married fathers and mothers to- gether in the home and faithful churches on the • Children who grow up without a father in corner. Within families, children learn how to the home are also significantly more likely govern their lives. Churches help to reinforce to be incarcerated as adults;2 these principles and strengthen the family in its role. When these institutions are weak or absent • Children and youth in married-parent from peoples’ lives, society becomes increasingly homes are also less likely to be victims of dependent on government to impose restraint. violence and maltreatment;3 and The evidence is overwhelming: When fami- lies are broken, children are more likely to en- • Children in married-parent homes are gage in criminal behavior. Having both mother far less likely to experience other types of and father as mutually supporting authority child abuse (emotional or sexual abuse).4
38 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity Among adults, marriage also seems to be • Research also shows that, for youth, in- connected to lower rates of criminal activity volvement in religious communities and for men, even when considering character- groups may protect them against engaging istics associated with greater likelihood of in delinquent behaviors. Youth who par- marriage.5 Counties with higher proportions ticipate in religious activity, such as prayer of single-parent homes tended to have higher or reading or watching religious content, homicide rates, compared to counties with are also less likely to display antisocial higher proportions of intact families.6 behavior.9 Sadly, it is not always possible for a child to be raised by a married mother and father, but Limited government endures when people much more can be done to address the high govern themselves. In the words of Clayton rate of unwed childbearing in the United States, Christensen, Harvard Business School’s Kim which has soared over the past five decades, as B. Clark Professor of Business Administra- well as the historically high divorce rate. tion, “democracy works because most people American families also need faithful most of the time voluntarily choose to obey churches. These churches teach that there the law.”10 The family is the incubator of liber- is an authority higher than man-made gov- ty. It is there that a person learns values, hard ernment and that our rights are gifts from work, character, and what is most important a loving God, not privileges granted by gov- in life. Religious congregations reinforce the ernment. Faithful churches inform the con- principles taught in the home and support the science about right and wrong, teach that family in its role of raising the next generation. each life has a purpose and that individuals Society thrives when families and religious are responsible for their lives and others’, and communities are strong and when the prin- cultivate virtues that form the bedrock of a ciples they cultivate inform the daily choices prosperous society. and personal conduct of their members. Government cannot replace the kinds of
Couples who attend church regularly support offered by the family or a religious • together and are more religious have, on community. Embracing these twin pillars average, higher-quality marriages,7 which of social strength ensures that individuals can serve as a buffer against societal will be stronger and society will be safer and breakdown and the social ills connected more stable. with it. Ken Blackwell is Senior Fellow for Family • Individuals who attend church regularly, Empowerment at the Family Research Council and compared to those who attend only rarely former Undersecretary at the U.S. Department of or never, are significantly less likely to Housing and Urban Development. engage in violent behavior against their partners.8
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 39 Section One Endotes
Culture and the Challenge of Self-Government Scott Yenor 1. John Locke, Letter Concerning Toleration, ed. James H. Tully (Indianapolis: Hackett Publishing, 1983) pages 26-27. 2. John Locke, Some Thoughts Concerning Education and Of the Conduct of the Understanding, ed. and intro. Ruth W. Grant and Nathan Tarcov (Indianapolis: Hackett Publishing, 1996). 3. Meyer v. Nebraska, 262 U.S. 390, 399 (1923). 4. Pierce v. Society of Sisters of the Holy Names of Jesus and Mary, 268 U.S. 510, 535 (1925). 5. Consider David P. Goldman, How Civilizations Die (And Why Islam Is Dying Too) (Washington: Regnery, 2011); Jonathan V. Last, What to Expect When No One’s Expecting: America’s Coming Demographic Disaster (New York: Encounter Books, 2013); and Phillip Longman, The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity and What to Do About It (New York: Basic Books, 2004). 6. John Adams, June 2, 1778, in The Adams Papers: Diary and Autobiography of John Adams, ed. L. H. Butterfield (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1961), Vol. 4, p. 123. 7. Abraham Lincoln, “House Divided Speech,” Springfield, Illinois, June 16, 1858, http://www.abrahamlincolnonline.org/lincoln/speeches/house.htm (accessed May 12, 2016). Emphasis in original.
A Generation Conflicted About Marriage Amber and David Lapp 1. Her name has been changed to protect her identity. 2. The vast majority of interviews were conducted between 2010 and 2012. We describe the findings from our interviews in a forthcoming book and at the blog of the Institute for Family Studies, www.family-studies.org. 3. Kay Hymowitz, Jason S. Carroll, W. Bradford Wilcox, and Kelleen Kaye, Knot Yet: The Benefits and Costs of Delayed Marriage in America, sponsored by the National Marriage Project at the University of Virginia, the National Campaign to Prevent Teen and Unplanned Pregnancy, and the Relate Institute, 2013, p. 14, http://nationalmarriageproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/KnotYet-FinalForWeb.pdf (accessed May 16, 2016). 4. Amanda J. Miller, Sharon Sassler, and Dela Kusi-Appouh, “The Specter of Divorce: Views from Working- and Middle-Class Cohabitors,” Family Relations, Vol. 60, Issue 5 (December 2011), pp. 602–616.
Divorce in Our Nation Julie Baumgardner 1. Erin E. Clack, “Study Probes Generation Gap,” Children’s Business, Vol. 19, No. 5 (May 2004). 2. Susan Gregory Thomas, “The Divorce Generation,” The Wall Street Journal, July 9, 2011, http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303544604576430341393583056 (accessed June 14, 2016). 3. Kate Hughes, “The Adult Children of Divorce: Pure Relationships and Family Values?” Journal of Sociology, Vol. 41, No. 1 (March 2005), pp. 69–86. 4. Karen Benjamin Guzzo, “Trends in Cohabitation Outcomes: Compositional Changes and Engagement Among Never-Married Young Adults,” Journal of Marriage and the Family, Vol. 76, No. 4 (August 2014), pp. 826–842. 5. Scott Stanley, “How to Lower Your Risk of Divorce: Advice to Singles,” Institute for Family Studies, February 11, 2015, http://family-studies.org/how-to-lower-your-risk-of-divorce-advice-to-singles/ (accessed June 14, 2016). 6. Robert Apel and Catherine Kaukinen, “On the Relationship between Family Structure and Antisocial Behavior: Parental Cohabitation and Blended Households,” Criminology Vol. 46, No. 1 (March 2008), pp. 35-70. 7. Andrea J. Sedlak et al, Fourth National Incidence Study of Child Abuse and Neglect (NIS–4): Report to Congress, 2010 (Washington: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families), http://www.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/opre/nis4_report_congress_full_pdf_jan2010.pdf (accessed June 14, 2016).
40 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity Having Children Helps—Not Hurts—Our Future Mollie Ziegler Hemingway 1. Brief of Amici Curiae by Janice MacAvoy, Janie Schulman, et al., Whole Woman’s Health v. Cole (Sup. Ct.) (No. 15-274), http://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Janice-Macavoy-Paul-Weiss.pdf (accessed May 12, 2016). 2. Walter R. Schumm and Jason S. Carroll, “The Fall of Fertility: How Redefining Marriage Will Further Declining Birthrates in the United States,” Witherspoon Institute, Public Discourse, April 22, 2015, http://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2015/04/14885/ (accessed May 12, 2016). 3. “Demographic Destiny 2050,” The Wall Street Journal, http://graphics.wsj.com/2050-demographic-destiny/ (accessed May 12, 2016). 4. Janet Currie and Hannes Schwandt, “Short- and Long-Term Effects of Unemployment on Fertility,”Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 111, No 41 (October 14, 2014), pp. 14735–14739, http://www.pnas.org/content/111/41/14734.full.pdf (accessed April 19, 2016). 5. Richard Fry, A Rising Share of Young Adults Live in Their Parents’ Home, Pew Research Center, August 1, 2013, http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2013/08/01/a-rising-share-of-young-adults-live-in-their-parents-home/ (accessed June 21, 2016); Nan Marie Astone, Steven Martin, and H. Elizabeth Peters, “Millennial Childbearing and the Recession,” Urban Institute, Center for Labor, Human Resources, and Population Brief, April 28, 2015, http://www.urban.org/research/publication/millennial-childbearing- and-recession (accessed June 21, 2016); Pew Research Center, The Rising Cost of Not Going to College, February 2014, http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/02/11/the-rising-cost-of-not-going-to-college/ (accessed June 21, 2016). 6. Nan Marie Astone, Steven Martin, and H. Elizabeth Peters, “Millennial Childbearing and the Recession,” Urban Institute Center on Labor, Human Services, and Population Brief, April 2015, http://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/alfresco/publication-pdfs/2000203-Millennial-Childbearing-and-the-Recession.pdf (accessed April 19, 2016). 7. Robert I. Lerman and W. Bradford Wilcox, For Richer, for Poorer: How Family Structures Economic Success in America, American Enterprise Institute, Institute for Family Studies, 2014, https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/IFS-ForRicherForPoorer-Final_Web.pdf (accessed April 19, 2016). 8. Gretchen Livingston, “Birth Rates Lag in Europe and the U.S., But the Desire for Kids Does Not,” Pew Research Center, April 11, 2014, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/04/11/birth-rates-lag-in-europe-and-the-u-s-but-the-desire-for-kids-does-not/ (accessed June 6, 2016).
Reinvigorating Family Life: Critical to Restoring Opportunity Eric Cochling 1. Ron Haskins and Isabel Sawhill, Creating an Opportunity Society (Washington: Brookings Institution Press, 2009). 2. Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Patrick Kline, and Emmanuel Saez, “Where Is the Land of Opportunity? The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 19843, January 2014, http://www.nber.org/papers/w19843 (accessed May 16, 2016). 3. Robert Rector, “Marriage: America’s Greatest Weapon Against Child Poverty,” Heritage Foundation Special Report No. 117, September 5, 2012, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/09/marriage-americas-greatest-weapon-against-child-poverty. 4. Robert Rector and Rachel Sheffield, “The War on Poverty After 50 Years,” Heritage FoundationBackgrounder No. 2955, September 15, 2014, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/09/the-war-on-poverty-after-50-years.
Teen Drug Use: Cultural Amnesia, Current Harm Seth Leibsohn 1. William J. Bennett and Robert A. White, Going to Pot: Why the Rush to Legalize Marijuana Is Harming America (New York: Hachette Book Group, 2015), p. 116. 2. Kimberly Nordyke and Associated Press, “’Weeds’ Sets Showtime Ratings Record,” The Hollywood Reporter, June 17, 2008, http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/weeds-sets-showtime-ratings-record-113998 (accessed June 16, 2016). 3. For example, see Nora D. Volkow, Ruben D. Baler, Wilson M. Compton, and Susan R. B. Weiss, “Adverse Health Effects of Marijuana Use,” New England Journal of Medicine, Vol. 370, No. 23 (June 5, 2014), pp. 2219–2227, http://dfaf.org/assets/docs/Adverse%20health%20effects.pdf (accessed May 27, 2016). 4. White House Office of National Drug Control Policy, “Marijuana Use Is Inversely Related to Perceived Risk of Occasional Use in 12th Graders,” https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/ondcp/perceived_risk_inversely_related_2011.PNG (accessed June 6, 2016).
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 41 5. Rocky Mountain High Intensity Trafficking Area, “The Legalization of Marijuana in Colorado: The Impact,” January 2016, http://www.rmhidta.org/html/FINAL%20NSDUH%20Results-%20Jan%202016%20Release.pdf (accessed June 6, 2016). U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, National Survey on Drug Use and Health: Comparison of 2012–2013 and 2013–2014 Population Percentages (50 States and the District of Columbia), 2014, http://www.samhsa.gov/data/sites/default/files/NSDUHsaeShortTermCHG2014/NSDUHsaeShortTermCHG2014.pdf (accessed June 22, 2016).
Responding to the Sexual Revolution with Love and Fidelity Caitlin La Ruffa 1. Robert E. Rector, Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D., Lauren R. Noyes, and Shannan Martin, “The Harmful Effects of Early Sexual Activity and Multiple Sexual Partners Among Women: A Book of Charts,” The Heritage Foundation, June 23, 2003, https://s3.amazonaws.com/thf_media/2003/pdf/Bookofcharts.pdf (accessed June 6, 2016). 2. Ibid. 3. Katherine Bindley, “Women and Prescription Drugs: One in Four Takes Mental Health Meds,” Huffington Post, November 16, 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/16/women-and-prescription-drug-use_n_1098023.html (accessed April 20, 2016). See also Melinda Bersamin, et al. “Risky Business: Is There an Association between Casual Sex and Mental Health among Emerging Adults?” Journal of Sex Research, June 7, 2013, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23742031 (accessed June 6, 2016). 4. Paula England and Jason Young, "Understanding the Hook-up Culture: What's Really Happening on College Campuses. Media Education Foundation Study Guide," http://www.mediaed.org/discussion-guides/Understanding-Hookup-Culture-Discussion-Guide.pdf (accessed June 6, 2016), p. 23. 5. International Planned Parenthood Federation, “Condom Negotiation,” April 26, 2012, http://www.ippf.org/news/blogs/condom-negotiation (accessed April 20, 2016).
6. For John Van Epp’s Relationship Attachment Model, see www.lovethinks.com (accessed June 23, 2016). For Dr. Scott Stanley’s Sliding vs. Deciding framework, see slidingvsdeciding.blogspot.com (accessed June 23, 2016). 7. Amber Lapp, “When Pregnancy Is ‘Planned But Not Planned,’” Institute for Family Studies, April 20, 2015, http://family-studies.org/when-pregnancy-is-planned-but-not-planned/ (accessed April 20, 2016).
Pro-Life Convictions, Lower Demand for Abortions Randall Wenger 1. David Crary, "Abortions Declining Greatly Across Most of US: Changes in Laws Do Not Appear to Affect Trend," Associated Press, June 8, 2015, https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2015/06/07/exclusive-abortions-declining-nearly-all-states/ DNRxPWSUBMVEq9J7rj6zbI/story.html (accessed June 15, 2016). 2. Lydia Saad, "Generational Differences on Abortion Narrow," Gallup, March 12, 2010, http://www.gallup.com/poll/126581/generational-differences-abortion-narrow.aspx (accessed June 16, 2016). 3. Pew Research Center, Abortion Viewed in Moral Terms: Fewer See Stem Cell Research and IVF as Moral Issues at 2 (August 15, 2013). 4. Clyde Wilcox and Patrick Carr, "The Puzzling Case of the Abortion Attitudes of the Millennial Generation," in Barbara Norrander and Clyde Wilcox, eds., Understanding Public Opinion, 3rd ed. (Washington: CQ Press, 2009), pp. 128-129, http://tinyurl.com/hrh6juy (accessed June 16, 2016) 5. Brief for CitizenLink et al, p. 7, at http://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/15-274-bsac-CitizenLink.pdf 6. Ibid, p. 15.
Religiosity and the Future of Freedom Daniel Mark 1. To be sure, scholars like Byron Johnson at the Baylor Institute for Studies of Religion have pointed out that one factor contributing to the rise in the “nones” is that survey questions about religious affiliation may be failing to capture the diversity of religious identification today. See Byron R. Johnson, “Dispelling Rumors of Religion’s Demise,” in2014 Index of Culture and Opportunity, ed. Jennifer A. Marshall and Rea S. Hederman, Jr. (Washington: The Heritage Foundation, 2014), pp. 28–29, http://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/2014/pdf/2014IndexCultureOpportunity.pdf. 2. Patrick F. Fagan, “Why Religion Matters Even More: The Impact of Religious Practice on Social Stability,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 1992, The Heritage Foundation, December 18, 2006, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2006/12/why-religion-matters-even-more-the-impact-of-religious-practice-on-social-stability.
42 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity Improving the Quantity and Quality of America’s Volunteerism Brian Fikkert 1. Marvin Olasky, “Volunteering: A Fraying Bond in American Society,” in 2015 Index of Culture and Opportunity, ed. Jennifer A. Marshall and Christine Kim (Washington: The Heritage Foundation, 2015), p. 33. 2. Jean M. Twenge, W. Keith Campbell, and Elise C. Freeman, “Generational Differences in Young Adults’ Life Goals, Concern for Others, and Civic Orientation, 1966–2009,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 102, No. 5 (May 2012), pp. 1045–1062. 3. Yujie Wei, Naveen Donthu, and Kenneth L. Bernhardt, “Volunteerism of Older Adults in the United States,” International Review on Public and Nonprofit Marketing, Vol. 9, Issue 1 (May 2012), pp. 1–18; Ellen Briggs, Tim Landry, and Charles Wood, “Beyond Just Being There: An Examination of the Impact of Attitudes, Materialism, and Self-Esteem on the Quality of Helping Behavior in Youth Volunteers,” Journal of Nonprofit and Public Sector Marketing, Vol. 18, Issue 2 (July 2007), pp. 27–45. 4. For example, see Jonathan Haidt, The Happiness Hypothesis: Finding Modern Truth in Ancient Wisdom (New York: Basic Books, 2006); Commission on Children at Risk, Hardwired to Connect: The New Scientific Case for Authoritative Communities(New York: Institute for American Values, 2003). 5. Steve Corbett and Brian Fikkert, When Helping Hurts: How to Alleviate Poverty Without Hurting the Poor…and Yourself (Chicago, IL: Moody Publishers, 2012). 6. Steve Corbett and Brian Fikkert, with Katie Casselberry, Helping Without Hurting in Short-Term Missions Leaders Guide (Chicago: Moody Publishers, 2014). 7. Corbett and Fikkert, When Helping Hurts. 8. Ibid., pp. 210–213.
Families, Churches, and Crime Prevention Ken Blackwell 1. Stephen Demuth and Susan L. Brown, “Family Structure, Family Processes, and Adolescent Delinquency: The Significance of Parental Absence Versus Parental Gender,” Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, Vol. 41, No. 1 (February 2004), pp. 58–81. 2. Cynthia C. Harper and Sara S. McLanahan, “Father Absence and Youth Incarceration,” Journal of Research on Adolescence, Vol. 14, No. 3 (September 2004), pp. 369–397. 3. Heather A. Turner, “The Effect of Lifetime Victimization on the Mental Health of Children and Adolescents,”Social Science & Medicine, Vol. 62, No. 1, (January 2006), pp. 13–27. ,W. Bradford Wilcox and Robin Fretwell Wilson, “One Way to End Violence Against Women? Married Dads,” The Washington Post .4 June 10, 2014, https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2014/06/10/the-best-way-to-end-violence-against-women- stop-taking-lovers-and-get-married/ (accessed April 25, 2016). 5. Ryan D. King, Michael Massoglia, and Ross Macmillan, “The Context of Marriage and Crime: Gender, the Propensity to Marry, and Offending in Early Adulthood,”Criminology , Vol. 45, Issue 1 (February 2007), pp. 33–65. 6. Jennifer Schwartz, “Effects of Diverse Forms of Family Structure on Female and Male Homicide,”Journal of Marriage and Family, Vol. 68, No. 5 (December 2006), pp. 1291–1312. 7. W. Bradford Wilcox and Nicholas H. Wolfinger, “Better Together: Religious Attendance, Gender, and Relationship Quality,” Institute for Family Studies, February 11, 2016, http://family-studies.org/better-together-religious-attendance/ (accessed April 25, 2016); K. T. Sullivan, “Understanding the Relationship Between Religiosity and Marriage: An Investigation of the Immediate and Longitudinal Effects of Religiosity on Newlywed Couples,”Journal of Family Psychology, Vol. 15, No. 4 (December 2001), pp. 610–626. 8. Christopher G. Ellison, John P. Bartkowski, and Kristin L. Anderson, “Are There Religious Variations in Domestic Violence?” Journal of Family Issues, Vol. 20, No. 1 (January 1999), pp. 87–113. 9. Michelle J. Pearce, “The Protective Effects of Religiousness and Parent Involvement on the Development of Conduct Problems Among Youth Exposed to Violence,” Child Development, Vol. 74, No. 6 (November/December 2003), pp. 1682–1696. 10. Liberty Institute, “Clay Christensen on Religious Freedom,” https://www.libertyinstitute.org/clay-christensen (accessed April 25, 2016).
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 43
Section Two Poverty & Dependence
Poverty & Dependence Summary
• From 2005 to 2015, the number of people Poverty & Dependence RIGHT WRONG living in subsidized housing increased Indicators TRACK TRACK by about 1 million. “While providing Labor Force assistance to those in need is important, Participation Rate (p. 52) taxpayers should not be required to subsi- Unwed Birth Rate (p. 54) dize rents that they themselves could not Self-Suffi ciency(p. 56) afford,” argues Robert Rector. Total Welfare Spending (p. 58) • The self-sufficiency rate declined between Subsidized Housing 2004 and 2014 as the poverty rate in- Participation (p. 60) creased by 2.1 percentage points. The pov- Food Stamp Participation (p. 62) erty rate has fluctuated only slightly over the past 50 years. “Welfare is destructive TANF Participation (p. 64) because it pays people not to work, auto- TANF Work matically giving them a check or a benefit Participation Rate (p. 66)
every month even if they don’t work—and so they don’t,” writes Tarren Bragdon. • Over 40 percent of children are born out- side of marriage every year. From 2004 to • The labor force participation rate among 2014, this number grew by 4.4 percentage working-age Americans is at its lowest points. Children born to married parents level since the 1980s. From 2005 to 2015, are less likely to be poor, explains Kevin it fell by 1.9 percentage points. To turn the Dayaratna: “Policies to eradicate child tide, Jo Kwong discusses “what is work- poverty should thus be aimed at strength- ing to help more people, especially the ening marriage, reforming our welfare unemployed and underemployed, achieve programs that penalize marriage, and greater employment success.” improving education.”
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 47
The Promise of Hope and Opportunity The Honorable Sam Brownback
oday, perhaps for the first time in our his- structure. They should not place millions in the Ttory, the promise of the American dream is bondage of dependence on government. They at risk of disappearing. For many Americans, should not leave individuals isolated from civil the hope of opportunity is no longer a prom- society, employment, or community. We cannot ise rooted in the nature of our nation’s char- allow the machinery of the war on poverty to acter, but a neglected dream that now seems wound and maim the poor. unattainable. For those who feel lost in the Economic opportunity is a hallmark of chaos of a global economy, for those who are American exceptionalism. For generations, stuck in the morass of government regulation Americans and those who came here seeking a and economic stagnancy, we can and we must better life believed in a promise that they saw offer the promise of hope and opportunity. as fundamental to the character of this nation: We have a moral obligation to reform an- If you work hard and play by the rules, you can tiquated programs that keep families trapped and will create a better life for yourself and
-in a cycle of generational poverty. A meaning- your family. That promise is alive and well to ful, effective safety net that both protects the day in Kansas because we have implemented vulnerable and is financially stable marks a common-sense reforms that are working to successful society. break the cycle of generational poverty. These For over half a century, our nation has at- reforms are based around the idea that family tempted to use progressive policies to fight structure, work, and education can do more poverty. After spending more than $20 tril- to lift people out of poverty than dependence lion since 1965, we have made little progress and government bureaucracy ever can. in alleviating poverty: These programs have These reforms were simple. If you are an largely failed. Despite the unsustainable able-bodied adult without dependents, we growth in various social welfare programs, we require you to work 20 hours a week or re- have been unable to ensure a path out of pov- ceive job training as part of your government erty for millions of Americans. food assistance benefit. Some on the left view It is time to rethink how we fight pov- work requirements as draconian punishment erty and advance opportunity. This need for of those who are struggling economically. In change comes not only from the responsibil- reality, work and job training are needed ity to spend taxpayers’ money effectively, but lifelines that have helped to lift thousands of also from the obligation to reform those gov- Kansans out of poverty and set them on the ernment programs that have fostered depen- path to economic security. dence and generational poverty. Results show more people finding jobs, Government assistance programs should not leaving welfare, and earning more income for subsidize or incentivize the breakdown of family themselves and their families.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 49 • Since the implementation of work re- with a diploma and an industry-recognized quirements and time limits on welfare certification and get good-paying jobs in in- eligibility, the number of able-bodied dustry or help earn their way through college. adults on food stamps has decreased by Kansas is now one of the more than two 75 percent. dozen states that offer private school choice options to families. We launched a tax cred- • Nearly 60 percent of those who left the it scholarship program that is available to program found employment within a children from low-income families who are year, and they saw their personal income trapped in underperforming schools. rise by 127 percent. This higher income Kansas also has fought to limit the impact not only offsets what meager government of oppressive occupational licensing schemes assistance could offer, but also has given that prevent many from entering the work- our neighbors economic security and force. There is a significant difference between independence while fostering increased ensuring health and safety within a profession economic activity. and creating a system of licensure and regula- tion that is aimed more at limiting entry into • Since Kansas work requirements were re- the market than it is at promoting the public stored, the number of food stamp enroll- welfare. We should make it easier, not harder, ees rising out of poverty has tripled. for those who are willing to work to enter in- dustries that provide economic opportunity.
We know that success starts early and that These programs prove that by redirect- children who are reading at grade level by ing existing funding streams, states have the fourth grade are more likely to do well both ability to cut costs, create new programs, and within the classroom and in life. These stu- make meaningful reforms that help to reduce dents are less likely to drop out of school and poverty. For too long, conservatives have of- less likely to become single parents. In Kansas, fered a narrower vision of merely spending innovative early reading programs are work- less money on social welfare or spending it ing to ensure that every child has a chance more efficiently. This is a good start, but is for a good education and a chance to avoid only the beginning of how conservative prin- poverty altogether. Instead of pumping more ciples can reshape policy with the goal of re- money into low-income schools with little ducing poverty and dependence. improvements, we invested in innovative pro- It is perhaps even more important that grams that leverage the innovation and exper- conservatives create a vision of hope and op- tise of our existing teachers and educators. portunity that transcends the details of policy State reading reforms have resulted in a 19 proposals to free citizens from the chains of percent improvement in the numbers of chil- poverty. Low-income Americans should be dren reading at their proper grade level and a able to have faith that their path out of pover- 38 percent reduction in the numbers of chil- ty will be unhindered by government, not that dren at risk for special education. government is holding them back. It is easy In high school, nonprofit partners like to distribute cash assistance and claim some Jobs for America’s Graduates have helped at- sort of victory, as has been done for decades, risk teens, most of whom would likely have but this strategy has served only to deepen dropped out of school, to achieve an 89 per- the roots of poverty in our communities and cent graduation rate, preparing for college, reduce opportunity for millions of Americans. work, or military service. The benefits of economic freedom and in- Meanwhile, our technical training educa- dividual liberty are not mere abstractions. We tion program gives many students the skills can and must show that these benefits can be they need to walk off the graduation stage realized in tangible ways. Education and job
50 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity skills lead to entrepreneurship and economic government check. Success means equipping security. Reformed welfare programs reduce people with the tools they need to shatter overall costs while ensuring the long-term generational poverty. It means investing in survivability and sustainability of a social the potential inherent in every human being. safety net for our most vulnerable. The war This is a fight worth fighting. We must on poverty will be won by helping people to and we can restore the American dream achieve self-sufficiency instead of adding to for everyone. the federal dole. Citizens know that we cannot continue The Honorable Sam Brownback is Governor of to subsidize poverty and that serving the Kansas and a former member of both the U.S. least among us means more than writing a House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 51 CHANGES 10–year ▼ 1.9 5–year ▼ 1.3 1–year No change
Labor Force PERCENTAGE OF ADULTS AGES 25–54 WORKING Participation OR SEARCHING FOR WORK 10yr 5yr 1yr Rate From 2005 to 2015, the labor force participation rate for adults ages 25 to 54 fell by 1.9 percentage points.
SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, and U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics.
Innovations in Training for the American Labor Force Jo Kwong
abor participation rates have been trend- could do this with a two-step approach to em- Ling downward, but the broader numbers ployment: embrace entry-level work as a tem- mask several other aspects that are notable porary stepping-stone for workers to enter in relation to work in America. Some people, the workforce and then “upskill” entry-level for example, are employed in part-time work workers to compete for higher wages in the but would prefer to work more. Still others, labor market. especially men of prime working age, are not There is nothing extraordinary about working at all.1 this idea. For many people, it is the “normal” What is working to help more people, es- course of events. The challenge is to turn it pecially the unemployed and underemployed, into the default pathway for all prospective to achieve greater employment success? The workers, including those with low education- nation is increasingly embroiled in heated de- al and technical skills. bates about one approach—requiring employ- Every day, nonprofit organizations, com- ers to pay more for entry-level work by raising munity colleges, and other workforce devel- the minimum wage—but there is also another opment institutes are doing just this. On the way: Instead of paying more for low-skilled entry-level front, nonprofits such as Cincin- jobs, why not equip people to earn more? We nati Works2 or the Cara Program3 are helping
52 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity the chronically unemployed to become em- fields. These short-term boot-camp training ployable, find and keep jobs, and begin a path programs equip people to earn higher wages toward self-sufficiency. in just three to four weeks. They show the stu- Most of their clients face multiple barri- dents how to map each successive certifica- ers, including felony records, addictions, and tion level back to specific jobs and also back to homelessness, that make them difficult to degree programs at the college. employ. Cara addresses this through its “so- Some workers will also seek to upskill for cial enterprise,” Cleanslate,4 which tempo- higher-paying jobs. A handful of innovative rarily employs the tough cases, thanks to the community colleges across the nation are generosity of donors who subsidize their em- meeting this challenge by building targeted, ployment. At these jobs, graduates can prac- accelerated programs that train people for tice working in a safe environment and build in-demand “middle skill” jobs (those that re- a work record. Philanthropic generosity also quire more than a high school degree but less provides professional clothing donations, than a four-year college degree). mentors, and other supports that help de- Recognizing that the majority of commu- velop the soft skills that employers seek: the nity college students are holding down jobs willingness to show up for work on time, ev- and raising children, and consequently not ery time, prepared with the tools and attitude available for classes from 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 needed for the job. p.m. Monday through Friday, leading schools Cincinnati Works promotes two key slo- are changing the education delivery model. gans: “One job, one year” and “Call before you San Jacinto College in Texas, for instance, of- quit.” The goal is to build “muscle memory” for fers welding classes between midnight and work, making it an integral part of daily life. 2:00 a.m. to meet the needs of their work- In addition, short-term vocational train- ing students, and there is a waiting list for ing can be very effective. Many schools are these classes—which should not be surpris- offering accelerated certification programs ing, given the persistent demand for welders
in a wide range of middle-skill fields, from across the nation. Rio Salado College blends advanced manufacturing to allied health.Va- online learning with on-campus supports. lencia College’s five-week basic construction Students can enroll on any one of “48 differ- program prepares people to enter the build- ent start dates” each year to earn their asso- ing construction field.5 Students can earn ciate degrees in high-growth/high-demand “stackable” certificates, usually in three to fields on a schedule that fits their lives and eight weeks, and gain additional skills such as work schedules. concrete finishing or sheet rock installation Work is essential for economic stability that qualify workers for more jobs and higher and life success. The tools are growing to help pay. With an estimated $9 billion in construc- even the lowest-skilled individuals become tion projects planned for the region over the employable, secure work, and progress to next few years, there is a steady demand for better-paying jobs. The challenge is to em- these skills. brace a paycheck as the earned reward for a The Maricopa Skill Center,6 a division of job well done. Gateway Community College, offers more than 23 different training certificates in Jo Kwong is Director of Economic Opportunity health care, trades, business, and technology Programs at the Philanthropy Roundtable.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 53 CHANGES 10–year ▲ 4.4 5–year ▼ 0.8 1–year ▼ 0.4
Unwed Birth PERCENTAGE OF BIRTHS TO UNMARRIED WOMEN Rate AGES 15 AND OLDER, BY RACE 10yr 5yr 1yr From 2004 to 2014, the percentage of children born outside of Black
marriage has grown by 4.4 percentage points. Hispanic
All Races
White
SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, and
Child Trends.
Attacking the Roots of Child Poverty Kevin D. Dayaratna
ore than $20 trillion has been spent on have better employment prospects and con- Mmeans-tested welfare programs since sequently have greater potential to support President Lyndon Johnson began his War on a family comfortably than less educated par- Poverty, and the Obama Administration has ents have. Older parents are also generally added significantly to this figure, yet millions more mature and thus more capable of taking of American children continue to live in pov- on the challenges associated with having chil- erty.1 As a result, there has been a consistent dren than younger parents are. clamor for policymakers to address the issue. It is therefore regrettable that marriage In thinking about these problems, however, it in America has consistently declined over is imperative that we look beyond mere symp- the past several decades while unwed births toms and truly understand the causes. have consistently increased. In 1964, for ex- Policy research has illustrated that the ample, 93 percent of children were born to a overwhelming predictors of child poverty married mother and father; in 2007, this num- are marital status of the parents, age of the ber plummeted to 59 percent. Unwed births, parents, and educational level of the par- however, increased more than 30 percentage ents.2 These findings coincide with common points over the same period.3 sense. Two parents have the ability to bring Policies to eradicate child poverty should more income into a household than one par- thus be aimed at strengthening marriage, re- ent has. Additionally, better educated parents forming our welfare programs that penalize
54 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity marriage, and improving education. For truly need the welfare benefits, but also have example, many welfare programs penalize the potential to provide valuable training to marriage because welfare benefits decrease enable recipients to go back to work.5 as income rises. As a result, for many single- Although child poverty has been a concern mother welfare recipients, getting married among policymakers for decades, there are results in a reduction of benefits and an over- many policy reforms that can help to amelio- all decline in the couple’s joint income. Cer- rate this problem. In fact, the proper reforms tain policies, such as reforming the earned in- will not only help to reduce child poverty, but come tax credit, could potentially ameliorate also ensure that every person has a chance to this issue.4 realize the American dream. Additionally, welfare programs should be reformed to require work and/or study re- Kevin D. Dayaratna is Senior Statistician and quirements for recipients who are able-bod- Research Programmer in the Center for Data ied. As has been illustrated with a variety of Analysis, of the Institute for Economic Freedom state and federal reforms, these requirements and Opportunity, at The Heritage Foundation. not only will limit enrollment to people who
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 55 CHANGES 10–year ▲ 2.1 5–year ▲ 0.5 1–year ▲ 0.3
Self-Suciency PERCENTAGE OF INDIVIDUALS WHO LIVE IN POVERTY (EXCLUDING WELFARE BENEFITS) From 2004 to 2014, 10yr 5yr 1yr the percentage of individuals living in poverty (excluding welfare benefits) increased by 2.1 percentage points.
SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, and U.S. Department of Health and
Human Services.
Showing the Way to Self-Sufficiency Tarren Bragdon
magine a Midwest adult who had been on In post–World War II America, record em- Ifood stamps for 22 years. One year after an ployment and industrialization pulled Ameri- intervention, her income had almost doubled. cans out of poverty at unprecedented rates, Now imagine a woman in that state’s largest halving the proportion of people in poverty in city who had been on food stamps for almost less than two decades. In a short generation, five years, with no income. Ninety days after the rate of adults in poverty went from almost the intervention, she was earning the equiva- one in three to just one in seven. lent of $41,000 a year. Enter Lyndon B. Johnson’s Great Society. Is this the result of a new welfare training Since 1966—the start of the so-called War initiative? Not at all; it was a direct result of a on Poverty—America’s poverty rate has re- policy change quickly getting these people off of mained flat. This was an abrupt halt to the welfare. The examples show how to fix Ameri- mid-century progress of free markets, Ameri- ca’s stagnant poverty rate. Welfare and poverty, can ingenuity, and the increased productivity work and upward mobility: It’s really that simple. of the American worker. While many think of welfare as aid to those Too many people think welfare is bad be- who are in poverty, the truth is that welfare cause it punishes success. They focus on how pays people not to work. Yet work is the fast- the alleged welfare cliff punishes hard work est, best, and most lasting way to get out of by taking people’s welfare benefits away when poverty and become prosperous. they work more hours, get a pay raise, or get a
56 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity new job. But the facts show something much Families (TANF) welfare cash assistance saw more insidious: Welfare is destructive be- similar results in the late 1990s after work re- cause it pays people not to work, automati- quirements and time limits were instituted. cally giving them a check or a benefit every Back then, work requirements and time month even if they don’t work—and so they limits were the bipartisan consensus of don’t. The evidence is clear. Speaker Gingrich and President Clinton’s Take the State of Kansas. Governor Sam welfare reform of 1996. Sadly, since the start Brownback restored work requirements for of this century, we have moved in the oppo- able-bodied adults on food stamps in 2013. site direction. These are adults with no children under 18 and no disabilities. The reform did not affect • The number of able-bodied adults on food grandmothers or the disabled. stamps increased to 15.5 million in 2014, At the Foundation for Government Ac- tripling from 2000. Most of that increase countability, we wanted to see what would has been during the Obama Administra- happen when programs stopped paying tion (up from 8.7 million in 2008).2 someone not to work. In partnership with the State of Kansas, we tracked all 41,000 people • The same is true for able-bodied adults affected by this policy change by matching on Medicaid (19 million in 2014 from 10.6 them person-for-person through the Kansas million in 2008 and 6.9 million in 2000). Department of Labor’s hiring and earnings This increase is largely a direct result of database for unemployment insurance. streamlining the on-ramp to welfare.3 Before work requirements, these adults were receiving almost $200 a month in food Poverty is a tragedy. Welfare traps families stamp benefits whether they worked or not, in poverty by paying able-bodied adults not to so most did not work. In fact, only one in five work, but it does not have to be that way. worked. With the policy change, these adults America could easily repeat the post–
had to work or train for work 20 hours a week. World War II success of cutting the poverty The results were inspiring. After reform, rate by half (or more) simply by instituting three in five went to work (most of them im- the common-sense reforms of work require- mediately); average incomes increased 127 ments and time limits in all welfare pro- percent; and the average income of those who grams—from public housing to food stamps to were working was above the poverty limit. All Medicaid. In a few short years, millions would of this was within 12 months. Welfare enroll- be freed from poverty and give themselves the ment for this category plummeted 70 percent. 1 hope of a better life through a job. The two people highlighted at the begin- ning of this discussion are real people from Tarren Bragdon is President and Chief Executive Kansas. Moreover, their story is not excep- Officer of the Foundation for Government tional. Temporary Assistance for Needy Accountability.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 57 CHANGES 10–year ▲ 288 5–year ▲ 95 1–year ▲ 58
Total Welfare FEDERAL AND STATE WELFARE SPENDING Spending IN BILLIONS OF 2015 DOLLARS 10yr 5yr 1yr From 2005 to 2015, the combined cost of federal and state welfare spending increased by $288 billion, in 2015 dollars.
NOTE: Total means-tested welfare spending includes over 80 government programs providing cash, food, housing, medical care, and targeted social services for poor and low-income Americans. Social Security, Medicare, Unemployment Insurance, and Veterans benefits are not included. SOURCE: Heritage Foundation research and data from the Oce of Management and Budget.
The Welfare System’s Perverse Incentives Undermine Self-Sufficiency Jay Wesley Richards
ederal, state, and local governments in housing, medical care, and targeted social Fthe United States today spend enough on services for poor and low-income Ameri- means-tested welfare programs that if all of cans—and this does not include Social Secu- the welfare bureaucracy just got out of the rity, Medicare, unemployment insurance, and way and cut checks to the 40 million poorest veterans’ benefits. Americans, they could give each and every By 1970, the government was already one of them roughly $20,000 a year: $20,000 spending over $175 billion a year (in fiscal year for each poor individual, $40,000 for every 2015 dollars) on such programs. With few ex- impoverished couple, and $80,000 for every ceptions, welfare spending has gone up every family of four in this group. If handing out year, no matter who is in the White House. In money is really the way to solve poverty, then the decade from 2005 to 2015 alone, spending why don’t we just do that? on those 80 welfare programs went up $288 When President Johnson championed a billion (in 2015 dollars). Federal, state, and “War on Poverty” as part of his Great Society local spending now totals more than $1 tril- in the mid-1960s, he pledged to eliminate do- lion annually. mestic poverty. Today, over 80 means-tested If domestic poverty had disappeared as welfare programs are providing cash, food, a result, debates about the cost of welfare
58 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity programs might be left to the accountants welfare program should promote marriage and budget wonks, but the percentage of the for parents, not undermine it. Yet the welfare population that the government deems below system is rife with marriage penalties. the poverty line—which today is roughly 15 Too often, debates over welfare spend- percent—has barely budged in the interven- ing assume that if the government spends ing 50 years. Worse, the poverty rate was de- enough, poverty can be vanquished. Materi- clining steadily in America until the war on ally speaking, government could spread the poverty ramped up in earnest. wealth to raise living standards. But that is Part of the reason for the persistently high quite different from increasing self-sufficien- poverty rate is the fact that the government cy, which should be the goal of welfare policy. does not count most welfare benefits in its cal- Yet, if many of the policies actually exacerbate culation of poverty. Another factor is that the dependence, then increases in spending are welfare system has failed to promote self-suf- doubly bad. They waste precious tax resourc- ficiency. Our sprawling welfare state has often es and harm recipients. discouraged work, the normal way individu- This is why simply cutting fat checks to als and families have emerged from poverty. 40 million Americans would not solve the Less than 3 percent of Americans who work poverty problem either. The war on poverty full-time meet the government’s definition of would become, in essence, a more lavish and poverty.1 Surely, welfare programs should be efficient delivery vehicle for a cultural toxin designed to encourage recipients to find work that the welfare system is already delivering rather than to become government depen- far too abundantly—sapping initiative, un- dents. However, the vast majority of welfare dermining dignity, accelerating family break- programs fail to promote work. down, and encouraging the cycle of poverty, The Welfare Reform Act of 1996 managed even intergenerational poverty. to reform one program—Aid to Families with Most Americans want a social safety net Dependent Children (AFDC)—by adding a that provides necessities for those who can-
work requirement. Opponents cried that it not help themselves, and they want to help would create an epidemic of homelessness the poor and unemployed find meaningful and poverty among single women and their work. It does not follow, however, that a mas- children. In fact, former recipients did not sive welfare state funded and controlled by become homeless: They found jobs, dignity, the federal government is the best way to do and a way out of poverty. Now, under Presi- that. The evidence of the past half-century dent Obama, even that modest reform has shows just the opposite. been undone. The time has come for a serious conversa- Besides creating perverse incentives, the tion about reforming the nation’s safety net, welfare system also encouraged negative so- which is not so much a springy net as it is a cial patterns—from long-term unemployment massive, expensive, and sticky spider’s web. and dependence on government to substance abuse and unwed births—that have trapped Jay Wesley Richards is an Assistant Research millions in a multigenerational cycle of pov- Professor in the School of Business and Economics erty. An intact family with a married mother at The Catholic University of America and and father may be the best way to prevent Executive Editor of The Stream. childhood poverty in the U.S., so any rational
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 59 CHANGES 10–year ▲ 1.04 5–year ▼ 0.01 1–year ▲ 0.02
Subsidized TOTAL INDIVIDUALS LIVING IN SUBSIDIZED Housing HOUSING, IN MILLIONS 10yr 5yr 1yr Participation From 2005 to 2015, the number of people living in subsidized housing increased by about 1 million.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Our “Lake Wobegon” Public Housing Policy Robert Rector
he government means-tested welfare sys- benefits, and her children would receive Ttem consists of dozens of programs, which the equivalent of $1,506 in school lunch provide cash, food, housing, medical care, and and school breakfast benefits. social services. Most lower-income families on welfare receive benefits from many of • In most states, the family would also be these programs. When these benefits are pig- eligible for Medicaid, which would be gy-backed on top of each other the cost of the valued at $10,005 per year.1 The total value total benefit package can be quite large. of post-tax earnings plus welfare benefits For example: would come to $37,247, or more than twice the federal poverty level (FPL) for a • A single mother with two school-aged family of three. children who worked full-time at the fed- eral minimum wage throughout the year • If Section 8 housing or other subsidized would receive $13,853 in post-tax earn- housing is added, the benefit stack be- ings. In most cases, however, this mother comes much higher. With housing added, would also receive $7,260 in refundable the combined post-tax earnings and ben- tax credits and $4,623 in food stamp efits, on average, are between $42,985 and
60 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity $46,967 per year, depending on the size of for a three-bedroom unit is around $24,000 the apartment.2 per year in Los Angeles; $23,412 in Washing- ton, D.C.; $26,566 in Oakland; and $29,040 in Like the overall trend in means-tested gov- Stamford, Connecticut.5 The taxpayer pays ernment programs, participation in public around 70 percent of these rental costs.6 housing programs has increased over the past Another problem with the public hous- decade. More than 1 million more individuals ing system is that it appears to discriminate received housing assistance in 2015 than re- heavily against married couples with children. ceived it in 2005. Nine out of 10 families with children that re- Most low-income households do not re- ceive housing benefits are headed by single ceive housing assistance, however. Public parents.7 Roughly one-quarter of poor and housing benefits, provided through vouchers near-poor single mothers receive rent subsi- and rent subsidies, are rationed because of dies, compared to only 6 percent of married their very high cost. In 2015, approximately couples with children at similar income lev- 9 million families with children had non- els.8 Even worse, public housing programs pe- welfare cash incomes that were below 125 nalize marriage. If a low-income single moth- percent of the FPL.3 Only one-fifth of these er marries the employed father of her children, families received housing aid.4 she will lose most of her housing benefit. Because public housing payment stan- While providing assistance to those who dards are closely linked to the median rent are in need is important, taxpayers should in each community, nearly half of the regu- not be required to subsidize rents that they lar renters in each town and city are renting themselves could not afford. Furthermore, a apartments or homes that cost less than the system that penalizes marriage—one of the units provided to the low-income renters with greatest protectors against poverty—stands government vouchers. The government seeks in the way of self-sufficiency and well-being, to ensure that everyone has housing that is which should be the ultimate goal of all wel-
.equivalent to the median rental units in their fare assistance city. This “Lake Wobegon” housing policy seeks to guarantee that everyone in America Robert Rector is a Senior Research Fellow in the has housing that is at or “above average.” Institute for Family, Community, and Opportunity Thus, rental payment standards can be at The Heritage Foundation. very high. The Section 8 payment standard
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 61 CHANGES 10–year ▲ 20.1 5–year ▲ 5.5 1–year ▼ 0.8
Food Stamp NUMBER OF INDIVIDUALS RECEIVING FOOD STAMPS, Participation IN THOUSANDS 10yr 5yr 1yr From 2005 to 2015, food stamp participation grew by about 20.1 million people.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition
Services.
How Intentional Design Increased Dependence on Food Stamps and Undermined Work Mary C. Mayhew
oday, more than 45 million people in dependence on government was facilitated by TAmerica receive food stamps through the intentional design in Washington, D.C. The fed- Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program eral government established several destruc- (SNAP). With an increase of 27 million since tive “waivers,” including one that allows able- 2000, and now with one out of every six peo- bodied adults with no children to avoid work ple in our country on food stamps, it is time and stay on food stamps over the long term. to examine honestly both the program’s fail- Regrettably, most states, including Maine ings and the misguided policies that have pro- prior to the administration of Gov. LePage, moted dependence over independence and took the bait. The federal promise of a lighter economic opportunity. “administrative burden” and cash rewards for Welfare advocates and the federal govern- “performance bonuses” spurred states to waive ment will argue that this was caused entirely meaningful welfare reforms like work require- by the “Great Recession,” but that argument ments and time limits. Now nearly one in ev- falls short. While economic slumps drove ery four SNAP households nationwide is com- some enrollment, this unprecedented spike in prised solely of an able-bodied working-age
62 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity adult with no children.1 The average SNAP re- develops self-esteem, a sense of worth, and a cipient in Maine has been on the program for real pathway out of poverty. A taxpayer-fund- more than seven years.2 Other waivers allow ed welfare benefit loaded on an EBT card is states to require notification of income chang- no substitute for the human dignity and pride es and household composition only once every that comes from earning a living and being fi- six months instead of (like Temporary Assis- nancially independent. tance for Needy Families and Medicaid) when Employment-focused outcomes must be- changes occur and to waive asset limits on come the foundation for SNAP and all other households. In Maine, waiver of the asset test welfare programs in our country. Time limits has led to million-dollar lottery winners stay- and work requirements are critical. It is work- ing on SNAP.3 These various efforts by the fed- ing in Maine. eral government have paved the pathways to enrollment, often at the expense of program • We have reinstated the work requirement integrity, and have redefined success as based for able-bodied adults and have seen on ever-increasing welfare caseloads, not on incomes rise by 114 percent in just the first the number of individuals leaving welfare for year for that group as people leave welfare jobs and self-sufficiency. for employment.5 Worse still is the cumulative effect of these welfare policies on our deeply rooted culture • Overall, Maine was first in the nation of a strong work ethic, family commitment, for decline in food stamp enrollment in and personal responsibility. President Frank- 2014–2015, and our economy has received lin Roosevelt said in his 1935 State of the a boost as these individuals move into jobs Union address that “continued dependence in an economy with the lowest unemploy- upon relief induces a spiritual disintegration ment rate in 15 years. fundamentally destructive to the national fi- ber. To dole our relief in this way is to admin- • Since 2012, Maine has experienced
ister a narcotic, a subtle destroyer of the hu- a 23 percent reduction in food man spirit.”4 We cannot turn a blind eye to the stamp enrollment. destructive impact that these policies have had on the workforce and the work ethic. These common-sense reforms are ground- We talk about the American dream but ed in our fundamental belief that welfare then design welfare programs that trap peo- should be a temporary stop, not a way of life, ple in a nightmare of poverty, dependence, for Mainers. More people receiving welfare and despair. That’s the bad news. means more people living in poverty, which is The good news? These dependence-pro- nothing short of failure. ducing waivers are optional for states, and a It is time for our states and country to rise few states are eliminating them to return able- to the challenge and reorient a safety-net bodied adults to work, verify income and as- program that has lost its way and become a sets, and prioritize program integrity. Maine maze of dependence. Let’s get it moving in the is proud to be part of this common-sense, em- right direction: toward opportunity, jobs, and ployment-focused reform movement. self-sufficiency. As Commissioner of the Maine Depart- ment of Health and Human Services, I have Mary C. Mayhew is Commissioner of the witnessed firsthand the value and impor- Department of Health and Human Services tance of a job to those we serve. Employment in the state of Maine.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 63 CHANGES 10–year ▼ 899,000 5–year ▼ 469,000 1–year ▲ 172,000
TANF NUMBER OF INDIVIDUALS RECEIVING CASH Participation ASSISTANCE FROM TANF/AFDC, IN THOUSANDS 10yr 5yr 1yr From 2005 to 2015, the number of individuals receiving aid from the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program decreased by about 899,000.
NOTE: Prior to 1996, TANF was known as the Aid to Families with Dependent Children program (AFDC). SOURCES: U.S. House Committee on Ways and Means, Green Book 2012, and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
American Principles Lead to Opportunity for All Timothy Jeffries
hy should we seek to help people over- Working and becoming self-sufficient al- Wcome dependence on Temporary Assis- lows individuals to improve their financial po- tance for Needy Families (TANF)? Why does sitions while providing a sense of accomplish- gainful, stable employment mean more than ment and dignity. Government involvement a simple paycheck? is a safety net, but government should not be Our nation was founded on the principles the sole provider. Its role is temporarily to of hard work, diligence, passion, and perse- help people in need when they fall on tough verance. Americans take pride in their work times and have nowhere else to turn. Govern- and the satisfaction of a job well-done. Our ment assistance was never meant either to be work plays a large part in defining who we are a permanent solution or to meet one’s finan- and the principles upon which we stand in this cial requirements. A healthy, robust economy great country. A strong work ethic and pride in stems from a strong and stable workforce; one’s work are values held dear by Americans. too much government involvement stymies a A job done well fosters a sense of personal sat- growing economy’s health and stability. isfaction. In fact, the term “Made in America” The reality is that poverty is much more is a patriotic theme that communicates pride than financial. It often results from a combi- in our productivity and its quality. nation of non-monetary factors like family
64 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity breakdown, drug problems, mental health is- • Encourage the formation and mainte- sues, or abuse. If money were the only prob- nance of two-parent families. lem, solutions would be much more straight- forward. When families experience poverty From a historical perspective, it is impor- today, monetary limitations are not their only tant to note that from 1961 to 1993, the num- worry. Deep-seated familial dysfunction and ber of individuals receiving cash assistance other factors are the root causes of poverty in grew to 14.2 million from 3.4 million. Since most situations. that time, the numbers have declined sharply. TANF is designed to help needy families In 2015, the number of people receiving aid achieve self-sufficiency. States receive a fixed- stood at 4.1 million—only somewhat higher amount grant from the federal government to than at the program’s inception—and from design and operate programs that accomplish 2005 to 2015, it decreased by nearly 900,000. one of the program’s four purposes: What the numbers in the TANF indicator show is that more Americans are less depen- • Provide assistance to needy families so dent on government aid in the form of cash that children can be cared for in their assistance. The notions of self-sufficiency and own homes; sustainability are becoming not only more relevant, but also desired by families. The idea • Reduce the dependence of needy par- that families can support themselves without ents by promoting job preparation, work, cumbersome, invasive, and limiting govern- and marriage; ment involvement is increasingly appealing. That is the true American dream. • Prevent and reduce the incidence of out- of-wedlock pregnancies; and Timothy Jeffries is the Director of the Arizona Department of Economic Security.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 65 CHANGES 10–year ▲ 2.2 5–year ▲ 4.1 1–year ▼ 0.9
TANF Work PERCENTAGE OF WORK-ELIGIBLE TANF Participation HOUSEHOLDS ENGAGING IN WORK ACTIVITY 10yr 5yr 1yr Rate From 2003 to 2013, the work participation rate for work-eligible households receiving aid from the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program increased by 2.2 percentage points.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families.
Most Work-Eligible Welfare Recipients Are Not Working Rachel Sheffield
t is now widely recognized that work requirements work or perform some type of work prepara- Iwere the secret to the success of the 1996 welfare tion, such as job training, job search, or com- reform. How the work requirements worked is munity service. Between 1996 and 2002, the less well understood, and that leaves us poorly number of families on welfare dropped from prepared to maintain and build on that reform 4.3 million to about 2 million.1 Today, about to help more Americans achieve self-sufficiency. 1.6 million families are receiving TANF.2 In 1996, Congress inserted work require- Initially, welfare reform was successful. ments for able-bodied adults into one of the Employment rates among low-income house- largest cash assistance welfare programs, Aid holds increased, and child poverty plummet- to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC). ed.3 Today, however, most states’ TANF work AFDC was transformed into Temporary Assis- programs are at best mediocre. tance for Needy Families (TANF), and for the The work rate for TANF recipients is low. first time, able-bodied adult welfare recipients On average, only 33.5 percent of adults in were required to work or prepare for work in TANF fulfilled the work requirement in fiscal exchange for receiving benefits. year (FY) 2013, the most recent year for which The welfare reform law required that 50 data are available.4 This means that only one- percent of work-eligible TANF recipients third of adults receiving TANF engage in work
66 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity or work preparation that meets the work checks to working individuals on other wel- standard of between 20 to 35 hours per week, fare programs.8 depending on the age of children and number The biggest problem, however, is that the of parents in the household. original 50 percent work participation rate TANF’s rolls are filled with many adults who is simply too low: 50 percent of TANF recipi- are doing little if any work at all. In FY 2013, 56 ents can be doing no work at all, and a state percent of TANF recipients were completely can fulfill its work requirement. The main idle, performing zero hours of work or work reason why the work rate was set at 50 per- preparation in an average month.5 cent was pressure from governors at the time Missouri ranked highest in “idleness” with the law was passed; for the most part, they 77 percent of its work-eligible TANF caseload sought to keep required work participation as performing zero hours of work or work low as possible. preparation per month. A few states are doing The goal of welfare should be to promote well in engaging their TANF recipients in self-sufficiency for able-bodied adults, and work: Idaho (only 6 percent of work-eligible work requirements play a critical role in TANF recipients idle in a given month); achieving that aim. A work requirement es- Illinois (10 percent); Maine (16 percent); and tablishes reciprocity between the individual Wyoming (18 percent).6 who receives assistance and the taxpayers One of the reasons why so many states who provide it. Most important, a work re- have low work participation is loopholes in quirement makes assistance available to the law. States can lower their work participa- those who need it while ensuring that individ- tion rate requirement by contributing extra uals are encouraged toward self-sufficiency state funds to TANF or by simply counting through work. money spent by other organizations on low- income families rather than actually requir- Rachel Sheffield is a Policy Analyst in the Institute ing people to work or prepare for work.7 Some for Family, Community, and Opportunity at The Heritage Foundation. states have artificially boosted the number of working TANF recipients by providing TANF
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 67 Section Two Endotes
Innovations in Training for the American Labor Force Jo Kwong 1. Nicholas Eberstadt, “America’s Increasingly Irrelevant ‘Unemployment Rate’,” American Enterprise Institute, May 14, 2014, https://www.aei.org/publication/americas-increasingly-irrelevant-unemployment-rate/ (accessed April 20, 2016). 2. Cincinnati Works, Website, https://cincinnatiworks.org/?gclid=CIv-oYq7yMsCFdgDgQodHXYB-Q (accessed April 20, 2016). 3. The Cara Program, Website, http://www.thecaraprogram.org/ (accessed April 20, 2016). 4. Clean slate, Website, http://www.cleanslatechicago.org/ (accessed April 20, 2016). 5. Valencia College, “Continuing Education:, Basic Construction,” https://c2k.valenciacollege.edu/ce/CourseListing.asp?master_id=3793&master_version=1&course_area=CNB%20%20%20 &course_number=6007%20%20%20&course_subtitle=00&_ga=1.136530416.1329936236.1458242124 (accessed April 20, 2016). 6. Maricopa Skill Center, Website, http://www.maricopaskillcenter.com/ (accessed April 20, 2016).
Attacking the Roots of Child Poverty Kevin D. Dayaratna 1. Robert Rector, Katherine Bradley, and Rachel Sheffield, “Obama to Spend $10.3 Trillion on Welfare: Uncovering the Full Cost of Means-Tested Welfare or Aid to the Poor,” Heritage Foundation Special Report No. 67, September 16, 2009, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2009/09/obama-to-spend-103-trillion-on-welfare-uncovering-the-full-cost-of-means- tested-welfare-or-aid-to-the-poor. 2. Kevin D. Dayaratna, “Contributions to Bayesian Statistical Modeling in Public Policy Research,” PhD dissertation, University of Maryland, 2014, and Isabel V. Sawhill and Ron Haskins, “Work and Marriage: The Way to End Poverty and Welfare,” Brookings Institution, Welfare Reform & Beyond Policy Brief No. 28, September 2003, http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2003/09/childrenfamilies-haskins (accessed May 17, 2016). 3. Robert Rector, “Marriage: America’s Greatest Weapon Against Child Poverty,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 2465, September 16, 2010, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/09/marriage-america-s-greatest-weapon-against-child-poverty. 4. Ibid. 5. Robert Rector, “Welfare Reform, Dependency Reduction, and Labor Market Entry.” Journal of Labor Research, Vol 14, No. 3 (September 1993), pp. 283–297; Robert Rector, “Obama’s End Run on Welfare Reform, Part One: Understanding Workfare,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 2730, September 19, 2012, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/09/obamas-end-run-on- welfare-reform-part-one-understanding-workfare; and Robert Rector, Rachel Sheffield and Kevin D. Dayaratna, “Maine Food Stamp Work Requirement Cuts Non-Parent Caseload by 80 Percent,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 3091, February 8, 2016, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2016/02/maine-food-stamp-work-requirement-cuts-non-parent-caseload-by-80-percent.
Showing the Way to Self-Sufficiency Tarren Bragdon 1. Jonathan Ingram and Nic Horton, “The Power of Work—How Kansas’ Welfare Reform Is Lifting Americans Out of Poverty,” Foundation for Government Accountability, February 16, 2016, http://thefga.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/PowerOfWork-KansasWelfareReform.pdf (accessed June 22, 2016). 2. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, Office of Policy Support, “Characteristics of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Households: Fiscal Year 2014,” December 2015, Table 3.5, http://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/ops/ Characteristics2014.pdf (accessed June 14, 2016); U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, Office of Analysis, Nutrition and Evaluation, “Characteristics of Food Stamp Households: Fiscal Year 2000,” October 2001, Table 3.5, http://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2000Characteristics.pdf (accessed June 14, 2016); U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, Office of Policy Support, “Characteristics of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Households: Fiscal Year 2008,” September 2009, http://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2008Characteristics.pdf (accessed June 14, 2016). Note: The USDA did not report disability status information consistently between 2003 and 2011. Thus, 2008 numbers of able-bodied adults on food stamps are calculated based on other household data, total non-elderly enrollment, and annual growth trends. 3. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, "2014 Actuarial Report on the Financial Outlook for Medicaid, 2014," Table 15, https://www.medicaid.gov/medicaid-chip-program-information/by-topics/financing-and-reimbursement/downloads/medicaid- actuarial-report-2014.pdf (accessed June 14, 2016).
68 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity The Welfare System’s Perverse Incentives Undermine Self-Sufficiency Jay Wesley Richards 1. Carmen DeNavas-Walt and Bernadette D. Proctor, “Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014,” U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, U.S. Census Bureau Current Population Reports No. P60-252, September 2015, https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p60-252.pdf (accessed April 22, 2016).
Our "Lake Wobegon" Public Housing Policy Robert Rector 1. This is the national average cost of Medicaid benefits for two children and one non-elderly, non-disabled adult. 2. The national average payment allowance under Section 8 for a two-bedroom unit in 2014 is estimated at $11,752. The national average payment allowance under Section 8 for a three-bedroom unit in 2014 is estimated at $15,644. These figures equal the national average fair market rent weighted by the number of Section 8 units in each relevant area. Calculated from U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research, “Fair Market Rents” database, https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html (accessed May 28, 2016). The estimate in the text (the tenant’s rental payment based on earnings) has been deducted from the payment allowance. 3. U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, “Table POV27: Source of Income by Ratio of Poverty Threshold for Families and Unrelated Individuals: 2014 Families with Related Children Under 18 (13),” http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/cpstables/032015/pov/pov27_000.htm (accessed May 28, 2016). 4. Housing data taken from HUD database for all subsidized housing in 2015 (based on the 2010 Census). See U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research, “Picture of Subsidized Households” database, https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/picture/yearlydata.html (accessed May 28, 2016). 5. Ibid. 6. Ibid. 7. Ibid. 8. Some 1.6 million single-parent families received HUD rent subsidies in 2015; there were 5 million single-mother families below 125 percent of the FPL in 2014, It is likely that around a third of poor and near-poor single-mother families receive housing benefits. By contrast, only 190,000 families with children containing two or more adults received HUD rent aid in 2015; there were roughly 3 million married couples with children with money incomes below 125 percent of the FPL in 2014. See U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, “Table POV26: Program Participation Status of Household–Poverty Status of People: 2014,” http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/cpstables/032015/pov/pov26_002.htm (accessed May 28, 2016).
How Intentional Design Increased Dependence on Food Stamps and Undermined Work Mary C. Mayhew 1. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, Office of Policy Support,Characteristics of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Households: Fiscal Year 2014, Report Number SNAP-15-CHAR, December 2015, http://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/ops/Characteristics2014.pdf (accessed May 28, 2016). 2. Internal DHHS research done by query of Automated Client Eligibility System (ACES) data system, January 2016. 3. Dave Sherwood, “People on Public Assistance Spent Hundreds of Millions on the Lottery—and Took Home $22 Million in Winnings,” Pine Tree Watchdog, December 16, 2015, http://pinetreewatchdog.org/people-on-public-assistance-spent-hun- dreds-of-millions-on-the-lottery-and-took-home-22-million-in-winnings/ (accessed June 7, 2016), and DHHS, “Maine-Wel- fare-Lottery-Winners-2010-2014,” November 2015, http://pinetreewatchdog.org/people-on-public-assistance-spent-hundreds-of- millions-on-the-lottery-and-took-home-22-million-in-winnings/ (accessed June 7, 2016). 4. Franklin D. Roosevelt, “Annual Message to Congress,” January 4, 1935, http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=14890 (accessed May 28, 2016). 5. Paul Leparulo, “Preliminary Analysis of Work Requirement Policy on the Wage and Employment Experiences of ABAWDs in Maine, April 19, 2016, Maine Office of Policy and Management, http://www.maine.gov/economist/econdemo/ABAWD%20analysis_final.pdf (accessed June 7, 2016).
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 69 Most Work-Eligible Welfare Recipients Are Not Working Rachel Sheffield 1. Robert Rector and Patrick F. Fagan, “The Continuing Good News About Welfare Reform,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 1620, February 6, 2003, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2003/02/the-continuing-good-news. 2. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, “TANF Caseload Data 2015,” February 11, 2016, http://www.acf.hhs.gov/programs/ofa/resource/tanf-caseload-data-2015 (accessed March 23, 2016). 3. Rector and Fagan, “The Continuing Good News About Welfare Reform.” 4. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, “Work Participation Rates–Fiscal Year 2013,” January 12, 2016, “Table 1A: Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Combined TANF and SSP- MOE Work Participation Rate, Fiscal Year 2013,” http://www.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/ofa/wpr2013table01a.pdf (accessed March 23, 2016). 5. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, Work Participation Rates–Fiscal Year 2013,” http://www.acf.hhs.gov/programs/ofa/resource/wpr2013 (accessed April 14, 2016). 6. Ibid. 7. Grant Collins, Senior Vice President, ResCare Workforce Services, “State TANF Spending and Its Impact on Work Requirements,” testimony before the Subcommittee on Human Resources, Committee on Ways and Means, U.S. House of Representatives, May 17, 2012, http://waysandmeans.house.gov/UploadedFiles/Grant_Collins_Testimony_watermark.pdf (accessed March 23, 2016). 8. See Ohio Department of Job and Family Services, LSC [Legislative Service Commission] Redbook: Analysis of the Executive Budget Proposal, February 2013, p. 18, http://www.lsc.ohio.gov/fiscal/redbooks130/jfs.pdf (accessed May 28, 2016); The Alexander Group, LLC., Baseline Analysis of Maine’s Public Welfare System: A Review Submitted to the Commissioner of Health & Human Services: Final Report, May 2014, p. 35, http://digitalmaine.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1003&context=oms_docs (accessed May 28, 2016); Oregon Department of Human Services, Action Request Transmittal, “Cash Payments: Job Participation Incentive (JPI),” January 13, 2012, http://www.dhs.state.or.us/policy/selfsufficiency/publications/ss-ar-12-001.pdf (accessed March 23, 2016).
70 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity
Section Three General Opportunity
General Opportunity Summary
• The number of children attending char- General Opportunity RIGHT WRONG ter schools continues to climb. From Indicators TRACK TRACK 2004 to 2014, charter school enrollment Reading Profi ciency (p. 80) increased by 1.7 million students. “Pa- rental demand for strong educational op- Charter School Enrollment (p. 82) tions is consistently high, and on current Private School Choice trends, the number of students attend- Participation (p. 84) ing charter schools would double in five High School Graduation Rate (p. 86) years,” writes Nina Rees. Student Loan Debt (p. 88) • From 2006 to 2016, the percentage of Employment-Population GDP taxed away by the federal govern- Ratio (p. 90) ment grew by 0.5 percentage point, to Unemployment Rate (p. 92) 18.1 percent. Sabrina L. Schaeffer focuses on how tax increases specifically affect Job Openings Rate (p. 94)
(women, explaining that they “impinge Job Hires Rate (p. 96 on their freedom and make it harder for Money Taxed Away by their families to succeed and find fulfill- Federal Government (p. 98) ment. This is especially true during a time Start-Up Job Share (p. 100) of anemic economic growth when many families are suffering from stagnant wages Major Federal Regulations (p. 102) and increasing costs of living.” Economic Freedom (p. 104) • Average student loan debt now stands at $26,888 in 2014 dollars. From 2003 to • Economic freedom in the U.S. continues 2013, the student loan debt held by each to decline. It fell by 5.8 points between year’s graduates with loans increased by 2006 and 2016, according to The Heritage $4,011. In addition, federal assistance con- Foundation’s Index of Economic Free- tributes to higher tuition fees, as Richard dom. “[L]ower levels of economic freedom Vedder explains. negatively affect several cultural indica- tors, albeit indirectly,” explains Alejandro A. Chafuen. “Reliance on the state tends to reduce a sense of personal responsibil- ity and commitment to sustaining and protecting the rule of law.”
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 75
Ensuring the Opportunity to Choose a Promising Future Diana Furchtgott-Roth
conomic mobility is the defining challenge America needs a better way. First, every- Eof our time. Inequality will always be with one should have the benefit of a good educa- us, despite the best efforts of French professor tion to enable them to prepare for the work- Thomas Piketty, who wants to reduce it with a place. Then they should be able to use this wealth tax. We need to focus not on eliminat- human capital to get a series of jobs that will ing inequality—which is impossible—but on enable them to move up the income ladder. making sure that people can move up through Education is the beginning of mobility. In the income classes through education and 2014, only 82 percent of high school students job opportunities. That is why the data in the graduated in four years, a share that declined General Opportunity section of this Index are to about 73 percent among African Ameri- so important. cans.2 In many urban areas, barely half of
America has always been the land of op- students graduate from high school. Yet the portunity. We have one of the widest ranges annual per-student cost of primary and sec- of income in the world, yet people flock to live ondary education in America is over $12,000.3 here because of the chance to make a better The problem is twofold. Children gener- life for themselves and their families. They ally must attend their “neighborhood” public could go to Norway or Haiti or France, where schools, and teachers unions resist education there is more equality, but given a choice, peo- choice options that let students opt out of an as- ple come to America. They want to find a job signed public school and attend another school, and earn their way up—and see their children whether public or private, secular or parochial. earn their way a little higher. What is needed is more school choice. It is clear that America cannot help people When schools have to compete for students, move up by expanding welfare programs. Our the quality rises. For example: government tried this during the Great Reces- sion, when it spent over $1 trillion in stimulus • At Success Academy Harlem 1, a charter funds and gave the unemployed 99 weeks of school in New York City, 86 percent of unemployment insurance. Now, seven years students are proficient in reading, and 94 into the recovery, GDP growth is below 2 per- percent are proficient in math. cent, the percentages of Americans employed or looking for work are at 1970s levels, and • At P.S. 149, which shares space with Suc- slightly more than 45.7 million Americans cess Academy, 29 percent are proficient in are on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance reading, and 34 percent are proficient in Program, better known as food stamps.1 math.4
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 77 • The public favors charter schools by a mar- But when low-income children are forced gin of two to one, and African Americans to attend low-quality neighborhood schools, favor charters by a margin of three to one.5 activists are silent. In Nevada, over the continued objections • In 2014 in New York City, 70,700 students of liberal activists, education savings accounts applied for 21,000 available places in will soon allow parents to direct state educa- charter schools. Nationwide, over 1 mil- tion funding to the educational option of their lion names of young people are on charter choice. Students in 27 other states and Wash- school wait lists.6 ington, DC, including Indiana, Louisiana, and Florida, also have some degree of choice. This • In addition, parochial schools offer excel- could and should be extended to all students. lent education at a lower cost. Catholic Academic success means faster upward schools have a 99 percent graduation rate mobility, because fewer people are stuck at and spend, on average, approximately the bottom of the career ladder—and the ca- $5,800 per child.7 reer ladder is what economic mobility is all about. Getting rid of barriers to entry, such Unions oppose school choice because it as a high minimum wage, would be beneficial. threatens to reduce enrollment in public Only 3.9 percent of Americans make the mini- schools, especially the worst ones, and shrink mum wage, but these workers tend to be pri- the numbers of employed teachers who pay marily young and low-skilled workers.11 The
union dues. Due to union rules, in New York teen unemployment rate is 16 percent, com- City and Chicago, barely one in 1,000 teachers pared with 5 percent for the nation as a whole. is fired for poor performance.8 In Los Angeles, The African–American teen unemployment fewer than 2 percent of teachers are denied rate is even higher at 25 percent. Young peo- tenure, and only 0.25 percent of teachers who ple ages 20 to 24 face an unemployment rate received tenure were fired over the course of of 8 percent.12 a decade.9 Rather than raising the minimum wage, The two big teachers unions, the National states should consider adopting and expanding Education Association and the American the Labor Department’s teen minimum wage— Federation of Teachers, spent at least $73.1 currently $4.25 an hour for 90 consecutive million in 2013 on political activities and lob- days—to encourage employers to hire teens. bying according to U.S. Department of Labor The Affordable Care Act penalizes employ- filings.10 Unions are against school choice, and ers who do not offer certain types of health in- these expenditures explain why public educa- surance. The penalty can be $2,000 per work- tion appears to be one of the few benefits with er per year for businesses with more than 49 respect to which parents have no choice. full-time-equivalent workers (the first 30 In contrast to the lack of choice for schools, are exempt). Small-business owners with 49 the nation’s 45 million food stamp recipients workers who do not offer the right kind of are given government help in the form of deb- health insurance could face fines of $40,000 it cards to purchase food in grocery stores of a year for hiring a 50th employee. Some will their choice. There would be protests if they likely stop at 49 workers. were told that they could take debit cards Regrettably, the law has many unintended only to one store in their neighborhood. Anti- anti-employment consequences such as en- poverty activists would rightly complain that couraging business owners to hire more part- the government policy of forcing people to time workers—those who work less than 30 use food stamps only at neighborhood stores hours a week—without paying the fine. That was leading to poor nutrition among lower- reduces employment in America, and without income Americans. employment, there is no upward mobility.
78 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity In order to attract more businesses to lo- hiring. These include forbidding additional cate at home in the United States and gener- workers from taking time off instead of get- ate employment, America needs competitive ting overtime pay and limiting people from corporate tax rates. At 39 percent, our com- working as independent contractors. The bined federal and state corporate tax rate is Equal Employment Opportunity Commis- substantially higher than the 25 percent av- sion—which, despite its name, clearly does erage of our industrial competitors. In 2012, not believe in opportunity—has issued a draft the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on In- rule under the Paperwork Reduction Act that vestigations estimated that U.S. multination- would require firms to fill in 3,360 data points als are holding $1.7 trillion abroad because of on wages, race, sex, hours, and occupations the high tax cost of returning the funds. About of workers. 39 percent, minus foreign taxes paid, would America has numerous examples of cor- vanish if they brought this money home.13 In porate executives who started small. General 2015, Bloomberg estimated that this amount Motors’ new CEO Mary Barra began working had grown to $2.1 trillion.14 If even some of at GM as a college intern. She worked her way these funds returned, the result would be to up through numerous departments to the top create jobs for Americans: More jobs, more job. Doug McMillon, Walmart CEO, started upward mobility. out as a teen unloading trucks at a Walmart America also needs regulatory reform. The distribution center. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has Young people should face a future bounded issued regulations on ozone, mercury, and only by their imagination. With a good educa- carbon that would limit the number of power tion, they can work their way up the corporate plants and the amount of energy-intensive career ladder as Doug and Mary did. Or they manufacturing that could be located in a may decide to become teachers, astronauts, state or in a group of states. Thankfully, the stay-at-home parents, or web designers. Our Supreme Court of the United States has put a role is to ensure that they can choose from
.stay on the carbon rule, but the EPA is moving these opportunities to implement the other two regulations. With these rules, jobs would go offshore. Diana Furchtgott-Roth, former Chief Economist For firms that might decide to locate in at the U.S. Department of Labor, is a Senior Fellow America, the Labor Department has been is- and Director of Economics21 at the Manhattan suing an avalanche of regulations over the Institute for Policy Research. past year that will discourage them from
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 79 CHANGES 10–year ▲ 3 4–year No change 2–year ▼ 3
Reading READING PROFICIENCY FOR 8TH GRADERS Proficiency 10yr 4yr 2yr From 2005 to 2015, the reading proficiency rate for 8th-grade students remained nearly unchanged, increasing by 3 points on a 500–point scale.
SOURCE: National Assessment of .(Educational Progress (NAEP
Time to Turn the Page on Stagnant Reading Achievement Derrell Bradford
find myself asking people that I meet in the stories allow us to cooperate in groups larger I education reform field whether they can re- than the tribal bands from which we descend. member a time when they could not read. These realities—these stories—make nations Acquiring the power to read is so monu- possible as they have made America possible. mental that it rewires the brain in a way that That more children are not being equipped to cannot be undone and leaves a person forever understand them at deeper levels is troubling. changed. It is the sort of synaptic magic that That we would overlook this stagnation is even both improves the human condition and cre- more alarming. Finishing a book requires a con- ates greater opportunity for those who can do tinued turning of the pages. The story for us, it it well—which is why the stagnation of the na- seems, is that reading achievement has been tion’s reading scores is troubling, even though stuck on the same page for too many years. they trend favorably on the National Assess- Perhaps more important is how our chil- ment of Educational Progress (NAEP). dren see themselves in the world and how The story of a nation is a novel being writ- reading shapes who they can and might be ten at all times and at all places. Its themes are one day. Who were your literary heroes? What powerful, and being able to access them—to read stories have stayed with you from childhood? them—is crucial to our social identity. Our shared How have those dreams set your life’s course?
80 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity My childhood was enchanted by the Brit- On the other hand, there are schools that ish and their myths, accessed through the are obliterating this stagnation. In just a de- fiction of long-dead authors whom I would cade, for example, Success Academies in New never meet. The country’s origin story—a boy York City have expanded from one school to mentored by a wizard who pulls a sword from 34, filled with 11,000 overwhelmingly black a stone—had the sort of electricity that in- and Hispanic students whose test scores on spires young people to read and dream. That I reading (and mathematics) place them in the was inspired by Britain’s swords and dragons company of students in the most rarefied of is not particularly unique. That it happened America’s school districts. Choice unleashed while I lived on a rugged corner of southwest “Success”—and similar examples of excellence Baltimore, however, is. across the country—in a way that traditional When children read, they open windows school bureaucracies either cannot or will not. into futures that otherwise are closed. This is That the force of choosing is powerful enough particularly important for low-income chil- to bring this much excellence into the world dren—black, white, or other—as they struggle this quickly is a lesson that everyone should to imagine their own place in the world where take to heart. what surrounds them seems deeply constrict- If you believe we can and must do better ed. The kind of near-stasis we see in NAEP for our children, NAEP reading scores are reading scores (a three-point gain over a de- merely a glass that is half empty. That hope cade) inspires little in the way of confidence if should drive all we do so that the next 10 years you care about these young people who have are not like those we have just finished. many obstacles to clear in the fight to become who they are meant to be. Derrell Bradford is Executive Director of the New York Campaign for Achievement Now (NYCAN).
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 81 CHANGES 10–year ▲ 1.7 6–year ▲ 1.2 1–year ▲ 0.3
Charter School NUMBER OF STUDENTS ENROLLED Enrollment IN CHARTER SCHOOLS 10yr 6yr 1yr From 2004 to 2014, charter school enrollment increased by 1.7 million students.
NOTE: A charter school is publicly funded but independently operated. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for
Education Statistics.
Charter Schools: Expanding Educational Opportunity for All Nina Rees
his year marks the 25th anniversary of the Charter schools now serve 6 percent of all Tnation’s first charter school law. In the late public school students. Enrollment has grown 1980s and early 1990s, parents, teachers, and sixfold in the past 15 years. During the 2015-16 political leaders were looking for new ways school year, more than 400 new charter public to spur improvements in public education schools opened, serving an estimated 250,000 and empower parents. Among those leaders additional students.1 More than 6,800 charter was the American Federation of Teachers’ Al public schools are now enrolling an estimated Shanker and education professor Ray Budde. 2.9 million students throughout the country.2 They developed the idea of a charter school: Twenty-seven states have at least 50 charter a free public school in which educators could public schools, and nearly 20 states have 100 or try innovative approaches to teaching while more.3 Much of this growth has been concen- meeting clear performance targets. trated in urban areas, where the demand for bet- Minnesota passed the first charter school ter school options is greatest. In New Orleans, law in 1991, unleashing a bipartisan movement nearly every student attends a charter school, that has given parents in 43 states and the Dis- and in another five major U.S. cities, including trict of Columbia the opportunity to choose a our nation’s capital, 40 percent or more of stu- high-quality public school for their children. dents are enrolled in charter public schools.
82 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity Parents are choosing charter schools be- Parental demand for strong educational cause they see the results and hear about options is consistently high, and on current success from other parents who have made trends, the number of students attending a similar choice. Last year, Stanford Univer- charter schools would double in five years. sity’s Center for Research on Education Out- Yet demand continues to outpace availability, comes found that students enrolled in urban and hundreds of thousands of parents who charter schools gained 40 additional days of would like to choose a charter school end up learning in mathematics and 28 additional on waiting lists. Today, over a million student days in reading compared to their peers in names are on charter school wait lists. district-run schools.4 Moreover, the longer a The opportunity for a better life is what student attends an urban charter school, the drives all parents to seek the best schools greater the gains. Throughout the country, for their children. The National Alliance for there are charter schools with predominantly Public Charter Schools and our allies across low-income and minority student bodies that America support the replication and expan- are sending nearly all of their students to col- sion of high-quality charter schools so that lege. In many communities, these schools are all students have the opportunity to attend a also playing a critical role in revitalizing the school that gives them a foundation for life- neighborhoods they serve. long success. The continued annual growth Charter schools’ success is rooted in the in the numbers of charter schools and char- movement’s commitment to quality. If a char- ter school students is positive evidence of a ter school should fail to make the grade, par- strong and vibrant movement—and of the ents can vote with their feet. Moreover, char- power of school choice to expand educational ter school authorizers (the entities charged opportunity in every community where it with overseeing charter schools) are empow- is offered. ered to do something rarely done by school districts: close poorly performing schools. Nina Rees is President and Chief Executive Officer of the National Alliance for Public Charter Schools. -Last year, 271 charter schools ceased opera tions—evidence that the movement is serious about accountability.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 83 CHANGES 10–year ▲ 285,606 5–year ▲ 203,500 1–year ▲ 40,501
Private School NUMBER OF STUDENTS ENROLLED IN Choice PRIVATE SCHOOL CHOICE PROGRAMS 10yr 5yr 1yr Participation From 2005 to 2015, the number of students enrolled in private school choice programs increased by 285,606.
SOURCE: Alliance for School .Choice Yearbook, 2015–2016
The Overlooked Relationship between Private School Choice and Charter Growth Jay P. Greene
rivate school choice has nearly quadru- educational opportunity have been immense, Ppled over the past decade so that nearly but private school choice has served in three 400,000 students now have access to private important ways as a rocket booster for char- school options with public support. Of course, ter school growth. private school choice is the smaller cousin of charter school choice, which has been grow- • If there were no thriving private school ing even more rapidly and serves nearly 3 mil- choice sector, the charter sector would be lion students. Nevertheless, the growth of pri- considerably smaller and weaker than it is. vate school choice has played a critical role in Private school choice has made the world helping families and their children. safe for charters. If the unions and other As Nina Rees describes in her essay on opponents of school choice did not have charter school growth, the charter sec- to concern themselves with the prospect tor has played a vital part in providing op- of growing private school choice, they tions to families where once there were few. could concentrate all of their energies The contributions of the charter sector to on blocking the creation of new charters
84 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity and neutralizing existing charters with them to produce greater long-term success burdensome regulation. The spunky and for their students. We now have four studies resilient private school choice sector (with rigorous research designs) of programs keeps nipping at the unions’ heels, giving in Milwaukee, New York City, Washington, charters greater freedom to grow. D.C., and Catholic schools nationwide that show significantly increased educational at- • Private school choice tends to be much less tainment for students who were able to at- regulated than other sectors, and the suc- tend private schools.1 Educational attainment, cess of vouchers, tuition tax credit schol- such as graduating from high school and at- arships, and education savings accounts tending and completing college, is a strong has demonstrated that parental choice predictor of employment, earnings, self-suffi- is far superior to government regulation ciency, the likelihood of staying out of jail, and as a driver of educational improvement. a host of other desirable long-term outcomes. Private school choice options create the Rigorous studies of charter schools have operational autonomy that is needed to found very large increases in standardized serve the particular needs and interests of test score results, although increases in edu- students and their families. For the most cational attainment have been limited. One part, private choice schools are not pushed notable study, conducted by Sass et al.,2 did by a state accountability system to focus find significantly higher graduation rates, col- narrowly on trying to maximize standard- lege attendance and persistence, and even ized testing results aligned to state-man- higher earnings for students who attended dated standards and curricula. They can charter high schools in Florida, but this eval- offer a diversity of pedagogical and curric- uation is notable because the charter schools ular approaches and have the freedom to that produced these outcomes were more incorporate religious perspectives that can likely to be “mom and pop” community-based better fit the legitimate diversity of views schools, akin to private schools.
-about what constitutes a quality education The frequently unnoticed but still in and how it should be produced. credibly important growth of private school choice may serve to remind us that education • Private choice schools can draw on the is ultimately about human relationships and wisdom and experience of long-operating authentic connections. There is no substitute private institutions. Because many private for the role of a caring parent or guardian in choice schools are affiliated with religious helping to develop children into productive organizations and have long-standing adults. Being able to draw on religion and ex- relationships with communities, they isting institutions with long-standing connec- benefit from having authentic connec- tions to communities may also be an essential tions with families and a deeper under- part of the success of private school choice. standing of their needs. They are often led America needs a thriving private school by educators who have the wisdom, trust, choice sector to ensure that the scope and and credible relationships with families quality of all kinds of school choice will con- that are required for enduring success. tinue to increase.
The operational autonomy and authen- Jay P. Greene is the endowed Professor of tic connections with communities enjoyed Education Reform at the University of Arkansas. by many private choice schools have helped
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 85 CHANGES 10–year ▲ 8.0 5–year ▲ 7.2 1–year ▲ 1.1
High School PERCENTAGE OF PUBLIC SCHOOL STUDENTS RECEIVING HIGH Graduation Rate SCHOOL DIPLOMA FOUR YEARS AFTER STARTING 9TH GRADE 10yr 5yr 1yr From 2003 to 2013, the percentage of public high school students
who graduated on time (i.e., four years after starting 9th grade) increased by 8 percentage points.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for
Education Statistics.
Graduation Rates Are Up, But Not College Preparedness Andy Smarick
ver the past two decades or so, high school improved. Stretching back decades, schools Ograduation rates have risen. That is good and districts were able to inflate graduation news for several different reasons. rates by reporting, for example, the percent- Unlike simple test scores, graduation rates age of entering seniors who received a di- signify “attainment,” or the completion of ploma at the end of the year. That, of course, a full, meaningful course of study. The data removed from the denominator all of the therefore show that more and more students students who had dropped out before their are successfully making their way through our senior year. Now states are reporting a “9th K–12 system of schools. This appears to be par- grade cohort graduation rate,” meaning that ticularly true for historically disadvantaged we know the percentage of students who en- children. When the data are disaggregated by ter high school and graduate four years later. race, they reveal that Hispanic and African– Even though the common number-fudging American students, whose graduation rates has been stopped, we have still seen a rise in traditionally have lagged behind those of oth- graduation rates. er groups, have seen the largest gains.1 A final piece of good news is that gradu- Importantly, this consistent improvement ation rates climbed at the same time that has occurred while the quality of the data has General Educational Development (GED, a
86 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity high-school equivalency credential) rates in- to tell whether the rise in high-school gradu- creased. Had graduation rates gone up while ation rates parallels a rise in post-secondary GED rates went down, we might have sur- remediation rates. If this were the case, we mised that no increased learning had taken might infer that graduating high school had place—that we had simply eased graduation simply been made easier. At minimum, we requirements so that young people who pre- can say that a high school diploma is not yet a viously would have earned a GED were now proxy for college readiness. earning a diploma. Instead, we have seen There is, however, a silver lining: Re- consistent growth in the high-school attain- searchers have found a “sheepskin effect” as- ment rate (graduation plus GED). More stu- sociated with a high-school diploma. Simply dents are successfully completing second- graduating from high school (even if that does ary schooling. not necessarily connote more knowledge) in- Despite this good news, there is at least one creases a student’s lifetime earnings over the big concern. A recent federal study that looked lifetime earnings of those who dropped out or at students’ post-secondary transcripts found earned a GED.3 that half of students took at least one “re- In total, America has succeeded in getting medial” course. The average post-secondary more students than ever before to complete student took 2.6 remedial courses. These are high school. Much more work is needed, how- classes that re-teach content that should have ever, to ensure that those students are truly been acquired in high school. In fact, nearly prepared for college and career. 70 percent of students in community college had to take at least one remedial course.2 Andy Smarick is a member of the Maryland State Unfortunately, we do not have reliable na- Board of Education and a partner at Bellwether tional data going back years, so we are unable Education Partners.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 87 CHANGES 10–year ▲ 4,011 5–year ▲ 2,186 1–year ▼ 214
Student Loan AVERAGE STUDENT DEBT PER BORROWER GRADUATE, Debt FOUR-YEAR COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES, IN 2014 DOLLARS 10yr 5yr 1yr From 2003 to 2013, the average student loan debt held by each
year's graduates with loans increased by $4,011. Average student loan debt now stands at $26,888 in 2014 dollars.
SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in Higher Education.
Student Loan Debt Richard Vedder
he American federal student financial aid one-half the current level, and we would Tsystem for college students is highly dys- not have $1.3 billion in student debt and functional and suffers from several major the resulting hardship for many young defects. Two of these defects are especial- adults with debts of $30,000 or more.2 ly fundamental. • On balance, these programs probably • The student loan program incentivizes deter lower-income students from at- colleges into raising tuition fees more tending college—the ostensible reason aggressively than otherwise would be the for having federal student aid. In 1970, 12 case. Studies published by the National percent of recent graduates were from Bureau of Economic Research and the the bottom quartile of the income dis- New York Federal Reserve Bank suggest tribution; now only 10 percent are. By that the largest gainer in the massive pushing up sticker prices dramatically, student loan expansion has been the federal aid programs have scared some universities themselves, not the students.1 price-sensitive lower-income students If tuition fees had risen after 1978 at the from even applying for college.3 same rate as they rose between 1940 and 1978 (before massive federal student As the federal assistance programs led to aid programs), they would now be about much higher tuition fees, universities used
88 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity these added revenues to finance an academic or B–; now it is a B or B+. At some schools, half arms race that has given us million-dollar of the grades given are As.4 No wonder stu- university presidents, armies of administra- dents spend one-third less time on academics tors who teach or research nothing, climbing (27 hours weekly) on average than their pre- walls and lazy rivers, lower faculty teach- decessors spent 50 years ago.5 ing loads to allow faculty to do increasingly Radical reform of the system is badly need- trivial research, and increased subsidies for ed. A good case can be made for phasing out ball-throwing contests (intercollegiate ath- federal student loans over several years. At a letics). Thus, collegiate productivity, though minimum, stricter requirements are needed. difficult to measure, is more likely falling Aid, for example, could be restricted to five than rising. years for those who are seeking bachelor’s de- Massive government assistance programs grees. Students graduating in less than four have raised the demand for higher education years could be given bonuses for good perfor- and led to higher enrollments, yet data show mance. And colleges and universities should that up to half of recent graduates are “un- have to absorb some of the taxpayer costs from deremployed,” taking relatively low-paying unusually high rates of student loan default. jobs as baristas, taxi drivers, construction Lending to students ideally should be- workers, home health care aides, and retail come a private responsibility. New privately sales clerks. This leads to credentials inflation provided financing arrangements, such as (for example, requiring a college degree to income share agreements, should be encour- be a bartender) and forces millions of young aged. They end taxpayer responsibility for Americans into deep debt for schooling that is financing college and shift risks from the stu- necessary for even some relatively low-paying dent to the private investor. The recent trend jobs. Some of these students might better be toward promoting federal student loan for- trained in far lower-cost short-term vocation- giveness and favoring public-sector employ- al courses—for example, learning how to weld, ment should be reversed. It treats (poorly)
.drive big trucks, or work in a medical labora- the symptoms, not the disease tory as a technician. Finally, why not take advantage of the po- Moreover, the student loan programs tential for experimentation in our federal promote academic mediocrity and falling system by turning more of the responsibility standards. A bright student who graduates in for financing college back to the states and the three years through hard work gets far less private sector? States could use block grants, federal Pell Grant or subsidized loan assis- for example, to promote educational access tance than a marginal student who takes six at all levels—primary, secondary, vocational years to graduate receives. Federal tolerance education, and higher education—rather than of poor academic performance is one reason having to conform to a one-size-fits-all policy why we see 40 percent of beginning freshmen determined in Washington. failing to graduate within six years. Excellence is punished. To accommodate Richard Vedder directs the Center for College students with ever-lower academic qualifi- Affordability and Productivity, teaches at Ohio cations, schools have lowered standards dra- University, and is an Adjunct Scholar at the matically. The typical grade in 1960 was a C+ American Enterprise Institute.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 89 CHANGES 10–year ▼ 2.1 5–year ▲ 2.1 1–year ▲ 0.5
Employment- PERCENTAGE OF CIVILIANS AGES 25–54 Population Ratio WHO ARE WORKING 10yr 5yr 1yr From 2005 to 2015, the employment- population ratio for
civilians ages 25 to 54 fell 2.1 percentage points.
SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, and U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics.
Employment Has Value Beyond a Paycheck James Sherk
he employment-to-population ratio—the Workers in this age group are largely finished Tproportion of Americans working in jobs— with school and too young to retire. Demo- fell sharply during the recent recession and graphic changes have little effect on prime- has barely recovered. Many commentators dis- age employment rates. miss this fact as a consequence of demographic The prime-age employment rate remains change, and that explanation contains some persistently below pre-recession levels. Be- truth. Younger Americans are staying in school tween 2005 and 2007, it hovered between longer, and the Baby Boom generation has begun 79 percent and 80 percent. Then it dropped to retire. Economists have long expected these rapidly during the recession, falling almost 5 changes to push down employment rates: Stu- percentage points. Since then, the prime-age dents and retirees are much less likely to work employment rate has only partially recovered. than are adults in their prime working years. Between 2010 and 2015, it rose just 2 percent- But demographic shifts can explain only age points. If employment rates had fully re- part of the drop in the employment rate. The covered, millions more Americans in their Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks the em- prime working years would have jobs. ployment-to-population ratio for “prime age” This fact does much to explain why Ameri- workers (those who are 25 to 54 years old). cans are so dissatisfied with the economy.
90 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity The official unemployment rate has fully -re the harder it becomes for them to find new covered from the recession, but the unem- work. This lost experience can reduce in- ployment rate measures only those who are comes for years to come. actively looking for work. Americans who Less obviously, and beyond these eco- drop out of the labor force and have stopped nomic costs, many Americans find meaning looking for jobs do not count as unemployed— in their work. By working, Americans provide even if they would prefer to have a job. The for their families and serve the broader soci- drop in the prime-age employment-to-pop- ety. The vast majority (86 percent) of Ameri- ulation ratio shows that far more Americans cans say they are satisfied with their jobs.1 have stopped working than mere demograph- While most workers enjoy some time away ics would predict. from work, extended periods without work For many American families, this poses deprive them of this meaning. Workers who a serious challenge. Obviously, reduced em- have spent prolonged periods unemployed ployment lowers household incomes. Since are more likely to become depressed and to the recession hit, the real household incomes feel socially isolated. of working-age Americans have fallen even Employment has value beyond the pay- though real wages have risen modestly. The check it provides, and a prolonged weak econ- reduction in the number of Americans with omy hurts workers and families more than jobs has overwhelmed the modest increase in just economically. pay for those who are still working. Moreover, this problem becomes self-re- James Sherk is a Research Fellow in Labor inforcing. Employers value experience, and Economics in the Center for Data Analysis, of the unemployed workers do not gain experience. Institute for Economic Freedom and Opportunity, Therefore, the longer they spend out of work, at The Heritage Foundation.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 91 CHANGES 10–year ▲ 0.4 5–year ▼ 4.1 1–year ▼ 0.7
Unemployment PERCENTAGE OF UNEMPLOYED CIVILIANS AGES 25–54 Rate 10yr 5yr 1yr The unemployment rate for civilians ages 25 to 54 rose by 0.4 percentage point from 2005 to 2015.
SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, and U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics.
What the Unemployment Rate Isn’t Telling Us William W. Beach
ne of the most venerable metrics of social of the labor market. Americans count as “un- Oand economic health, the unemployment employed” only if they are actively looking rate, may not be telling us what we may think for work. Many Americans stopped looking it is. This is a problem for the host of econo- for work during the recession and thus are no mists and analysts of contemporary social life longer counted as unemployed. Nonetheless, who have turned to the unemployment rate in there are many indications that a significant years past as a key social indicator. number of these Americans would be work- In March 2016, the rate stood at 5.0 percent, ing if the economy were stronger. Numerous which is widely viewed as very near the full- economists, including Federal Reserve Chair employment unemployment rate (the normal Janet Yellen, believe that the unemployment level of unemployment in an economy that is rate now overstates the health of the labor growing at its potential). On its face, this rate market.1 They believe that a more accurate appears to be telling us that all is well in Ameri- picture emerges by examining the unemploy- ca’s workplaces. However, below this happy sur- ment rate in conjunction with other labor face one finds a great disturbance in the force. market indicators such as labor force par- The unemployment rate appears to have ticipation and the employment-to-popula- become a less accurate measure of the health tion ratio.
92 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity Second and perhaps more disturbing, the 2007) to 59.9 percent as of March 2016.3 Had participation of working-age Americans has the 2007 percentage held for March, there fallen dramatically since the beginning of would have been an additional 7.2 million the last recession, or since December 2007. people working (and that assumes the same This metric, called the labor force participa- unemployment rate as prevailed in March, or tion rate, measures the percentage of work- 5.0 percent). ing-age people who are employed or looking Of course, some of these missing people for work. Unfortunately for the rosy signals are Baby Boomers who have retired, and ana- coming from the unemployment rate, the la- lysts believe that this may explain as much as bor force participation rate has been falling a third of the “dropouts.”4 However, that still fairly steadily for the past eight years, from leaves about 4.8 million people who should be 66 percent in December 2007 to a low of 62.4 working but are not. percent in September 2015.2 March’s rate Which brings us back to the unemploy- of 63 percent is as low as it was in April 1978. ment rate of 5.0 percent. While the unem- Basically, this low rate implies that nearly all ployment rate has been a reliable indicator of of the gains in labor force participation have economic health in the past, it should now be been wiped out. clear that important labor market problems This disturbing decline in labor force par- exist that seriously impeach the otherwise ticipation is dramatically underscored by the rosy picture that this full-employment unem- number of people 16 years and older (a con- ployment rate paints. cept called the “civilian population”) who es- sentially have dropped out of the workplace. William W. Beach is Vice President for Policy The percentage of the civilian population that Research at the Mercatus Center at George is employed has fallen from 62.7 percent at Mason University. the beginning of the last recession (December
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 93 CHANGES 10–year ▲ 0.7 5–year ▲ 1.7 1–year ▲ 0.5
Job Openings MONTHLY JOB OPENINGS/VACANCIES AS A PERCENTAGE Rate OF ALL PRIVATE-SECTOR JOBS AND JOB OPENINGS 10yr 5yr 1yr From 2005 to 2015, the job openings rate increased by 0.7 percentage point.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover
Survey.
Job Openings Signal Optimism, But Hiring Lags Behind Mark Wilson
he U.S. Department of Labor’s Job Open- The data on job openings and labor turnovers Tings and Labor Turnover Survey tracks the are also important because they are watched number and rates of job openings, hires, quits, closely by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and separations in the economy every month.1 for the purpose of setting monetary policy. They The data are important because the number of are one of a dozen economic indicators that are job opportunities available and the dynamic in- part of Board Chairman Janet Yellen’s “dashboard” teraction between hiring and separations can that is used to measure economic conditions. signal turning points in a business cycle and For a variety of reasons, the number of job pauses in economic recoveries and expansions. openings took a long time to recover from the The greater the number of job openings deep recession in 2007–2009, but since 2014, it available, the greater the opportunities for has climbed back above the previous business- Americans to enter the workforce or advance cycle high set in 2007 and is now back near its their careers. Moreover, the willingness and historical peak set in 2001. Monthly job open- confidence of employees to leave their current ings as a percent of employment averaged a jobs to take better opportunities is typically re- record 3.9 percent in 2015, significantly higher flected in the quit rate (not shown) and is an- than the average of 3.4 percent in 2006–2007, other indicator of the health of the labor market. the peak of the last business cycle.
94 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity However, the number of new hires has only Americans are creating companies with paid recently clawed its way back to the previous employees at roughly half the rate at which business-cycle high, and the hiring rate re- they created them 35 years ago. Further, the mains stuck at the jobless recovery levels that Kauffman index of start-up activity3 shows prevailed from 2002 to 2003. In fact, current that despite a recent uptick in 2015, the rate job growth is as robust as it is only because the of business start-ups remains relatively low. separation rate has remained relatively low as Since the end of the last recession, the hir- well. Monthly hiring as a percent of employ- ing rate has been rising much more slowly ment averaged 4.0 percent in 2015, just below than the job opening rate, indicating that the the average of 4.1 percent in 2002 and 2003. labor market’s problems also include labor The hiring rate during this economic expansion supply issues. With the labor force partici- has been restrained by the onslaught of major pation rate at a 38-year low and employers regulations published over the past seven years, continuing to express difficulty in finding- em and especially the significant costs imposed on ployees with certain skills, it is likely that the employers by the Affordable Care Act. hiring rate will continue to lag behind the job- The barriers to entry and uncertainties opening rate for the near future. caused by the growing maze of federal, state, Reversing these trends will require that and local regulations also have inhibited we cut through the regulatory red tape that risk-taking activity and have contributed to is strangling business creation, prepare the historically weak business creation dur- Americans with the skills they need for to- ing this business cycle. This, in turn, has re- day’s labor market, and update our labor and strained hiring over the past seven years. employment laws to reflect the 21st century According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s digital workplace. Business Dynamics Statistics, which track the number of new employer businesses cre- Mark Wilson is Vice President and Chief Economist ated every year going back to the late 1970s,2 for HR Policy Association.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 95 CHANGES 10–year ▼ 0.4 5–year ▲ 0.5 1–year ▲ 0.1
Job Hires Rate MONTHLY NEW HIRES AS A PERCENTAGE OF ALL JOBS From 2005 to 2015, 10yr 5yr 1yr the job hires rate decreased by 0.4 percentage point.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover
Survey.
Job Hires Rate Slow to Recover Rea S. Hederman, Jr.
he job hires rate looks at the number of chart shows the slow recovery from the Great Tnew employees, whether full-time or part- Recession, with employers reluctant to add time, added to a business. The rate is impor- employees at the same rate as the pre-reces- tant because it shows how fast businesses are sion level. The good news is that 2016 is on adding new workers to their payrolls. track to be the best year for hires since 2006. The higher the rate of hires, the better the Normally, the hiring rate exceeds the rate job market, which indicates an expanding of job openings. A high open rate and lower economy and is a harbinger of higher wage hires rate is a sign that employers are having increases. A falling or low hires rate shows a trouble finding qualified workers. In some recession or flat economy. The hiring rate and industries, the open rate is outpacing the job quits rate, tracking voluntary worker depar- hires rate, which could indicate a skills mis- tures from companies, are strongly linked; match. Such a mismatch occurs when com- when workers see openings and companies panies have openings but are unable to find hiring, they are more likely to leave their cur- workers with the right skills to do the job. rent jobs to pursue better opportunities. Many jobs require more technical skills, and The hires rate is on the wrong track; even employers may have trouble finding qualified after six straight years of improvement, it people to fill these positions. remains below the rate during the peak of The labor force participation rate is also George W. Bush’s presidency in 2005. The slow to rebound in this recovery. While some
96 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity of this is due to demographics, the Congres- states have enacted free market policies like sional Budget Office estimates that govern- tax and labor reforms that have helped boost ment policies like Medicaid expansion reduce the region. the supply of labor.1 Employers have a smaller In Ohio, the private-sector labor market pool from which to find employees, so it can has not yet recovered to its pre-recession take longer to find the right ones. Some busi- level, which peaked in 2000. Since that time, nesses report that drug or alcohol abuse can private-sector employment growth in Ohio contribute to the difficulty of finding quali- has been near the lowest in the country. Re- fied employees. cent reductions in marginal tax rates have en- In the Midwest region, which starts at couraged people to work, and the labor mar- Ohio’s borders and goes west to Nebraska ket is now growing faster than it has grown in and the Dakotas, the hires rate has increased the past several years. From being nearly last, steadily, and the region now leads the nation.2 Ohio’s labor market is now close to the na- Hiring in the Midwest, for example, is al- tional average. most triple the rate of hiring in the Northeast.3 The industrial heartland economy is not only Rea S. Hederman, Jr., is Executive Vice President strengthening but also diversifying from its and Chief Operating Officer of the Buckeye older manufacturing base. Some Midwestern Institute for Public Policy Solutions.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 97 CHANGES 10–year ▲ 0.5 5–year ▲ 3.1 1–year ▼ 0.2
Money Taxed PERCENTAGE OF GDP TAXED AWAY Away by Federal BY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT 10yr 5yr 1yr Government From 2006 to 2016, the percentage of GDP taken by the federal government has increased by 0.5 percentage point.
NOTES: GDP is the total value of all goods and services. Figure for 2016 is an estimate. SOURCE: Oce of Management and Budget, FY 2017 Budget of
the U.S. Government.
Making Washington Work for Women and Their Families Sabrina L. Schaeffer
enjamin Franklin famously quipped, increase in the size of government—impinge B“Nothing in this world is certain but death on their freedom and make it harder for their and taxes.” Over the past 10 years, Americans families to succeed and find fulfillment. have been reminded of this adage as Washing- This is especially true during a time of ane- ton has increased the percentage of money mic economic growth when many families are taxed by 0.5 percentage point. That is, from suffering from stagnant wages and increas- 2006 to 2016, the federal government has in- ing costs of living. Women feel the way an creased the percentage of GDP—the value of aggressive tax system restricts their already all goods and services produced—that it takes squeezed budgets and limits their choices in by half a percentage point. In the past five some of the most critical parts of their dai- years, that number has had an even more wor- ly lives. risome climb at 3.1 percent. To make matters worse, lawmakers in Women tend to oversee household bud- Washington often talk about helping women gets and make many choices for their families and their families by launching new one-size- regarding health care, education, child care, fits-all government programs, which trans- and work arrangements. They understand late into even higher tax burdens. We know that tax increases—and the corresponding that women are best served when they can
98 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity have the flexibility to make the choices that Recently, for instance, we have seen a ro- suit their individual circumstances. Wash- bust effort by progressives to take care of ington spending can impede this freedom not women in the workplace through massive only by robbing women and their families of new proposals like the Healthy Families Act1 necessary resources, but also by limiting their or the FAMILY (Family and Medical Insur- choices in critical areas. ance Leave) Act.2 While such programs are A perfect example of how raising taxes in- sold in the name of helping working mothers, terferes with women’s progress is the sweep- just the opposite is the case; such dramatic ex- ing one-size-fits-all Affordable Care Act, or pansions of government threaten to increase Obamacare. The new health care system was taxes even more while eliminating jobs, driv- sold, in part, in the name of helping women. ing down wages, and reducing flexibility. The Obama White House argued that Obam- Education is yet another example of how acare would expand health coverage to mil- government taxes not only take away valu- lions of women and that this coverage would able resources from women and their families, include new benefits. Left out of the con- but also limit their choices. While taxes con- versation, however, was that subsidizing all tinue to rise and spending on public schools of these new individuals under the new ex- grows, test scores remain flat, and many stu- changes is financed by new taxes and tax in- dents remain trapped in failing schools. Once creases (not to mention increases in health again, government is costing Americans both insurance premiums). in terms of their bank accounts and in terms These revenue hikes hit middle-class of their futures. Americans particularly hard by increasing Something that eludes Washington law- taxes on over-the-counter drugs, limiting the makers is that women are not a homogeneous ability to save for health care costs indepen- demographic. Their needs differ from one dently through flexible spending accounts, woman to another and change throughout and reducing deductions for medical expens- their lives. In critical research at the Indepen-
es. In addition, middle-class families feel the dent Women’s Forum (IWF), we discovered indirect economic effect of the law’s tax in- important differences, for example, not just creases on businesses and the health sector. Of between the needs and preferences of moth- course, the real cost of these increases can be ers and non-mothers, but also between wom- felt beyond dollars and cents: Government is en of different political persuasions.3 also cutting off more efficient ways to expand That is why it is so essential to roll back access to better quality care and lower costs. Washington programs that increase taxes and But health care is not the only place where limit our choices and flexibility. Instead, let’s we see how tax increases limit our freedom allow more women and their families to keep and choices and not the only place where more of what they earn so that they can cus- Washington expands government and raises tomize their choices and pursue fulfilling lives. taxes in the name of “protecting” women. Women are presented as a victim class in need Sabrina L. Schaeffer is Executive Director of the of constant government protection. Independent Women’s Forum.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 99 CHANGES 10–year ▼ 0.8 5–year ▼ 0.4 1–year ▼ 0.1
Start-Up Job START-UP JOBS AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL Share PRIVATE-SECTOR EMPLOYMENT 10yr 5yr 1yr From 2003 to 2013, the percentage of Americans working at start-up companies dropped 0.8 percentage point, from 2.8 percent to 2 percent.
NOTE: A start-up is defined as a firm that is less than one year old. SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Dynamics Statistics, and
.Heritage Foundation calculations
The Waning Culture of American Entrepreneurship Ryan Streeter
f asked, most Americans would agree that The drop in startup activity in the United Ithe United States is a nation of entrepre- States is related to two other trends: As the neurs. In an age of celebrity entrepreneurs percentage of young companies declines, who have built global brands from innova- more Americans are working for businesses tions that began in dorm rooms and garages, it that are aging, and big companies are getting is easy to believe that entrepreneurs abound bigger. In the past 20 years, the biggest 100 in America. companies in America expanded their share In reality, startups have declined steadily of nominal GDP from about a third to nearly in the United States since the 1980s. New half of the nation’s economy.2 firms are about half of what they were in the There is nothing wrong with big, older mid-1980s as a percentage of all companies. In companies. They employ the majority of 1980, nearly half of all businesses in America America’s workers, and their innovation and were less than five years old, compared to less productivity keep America ahead in the global than 15 percent today.1 If starting new com- marketplace. To the extent that their growth panies is at the heart of what we mean by en- occurs at the expense of young companies, trepreneurship, then our country is much less however, America is paying a big price for entrepreneurial than it was a generation ago. three reasons.
100 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity • New firms provide a disproportionate • The decline in new companies means that share of new jobs every year. Federal we will produce fewer entrepreneurs in data show that companies younger than the next generation. Historically, entre- five years old have been the difference preneurs have learned how to start a new between positive and negative job growth company by knowing or working with over the past 30 years.3 Put another way, other entrepreneurs, yet fewer Americans without startups, all of the older compa- are working in new, small companies in nies in America, both big and small, would which they know and work with their have produced negative job growth. Many company’s founder.5 The accompanying new companies fail, and many succeed, chart shows that the overall percentage but overall, the churn we experience in of jobs in startups is declining in America. the marketplace from a lot of startup With fewer Americans working in new activity produces many new employment companies, the pool of people learning opportunities that older firms historically directly from entrepreneurs is declining have not produced on their own. Politi- as well. Ultimately, this means that the cians are fond of talking about job growth, culture of entrepreneurship, as opposed and most praise small businesses. Few, to the culture of the larger corporation, is however, focus their attention on young diminishing in a fundamental way. businesses, which is where the job cre- ation action is. As with many other complex problems, the decline in entrepreneurship in Amer- • Young companies historically have provid- ica has a number of sources, some of which ed a strong source of employment and up- are probably unknown. One likely source, ward mobility for young people. Research though, is the growth of the regulatory sys- shows that young workers are the pri- tem at the federal and state levels, which has mary beneficiaries of new firms and that, grown at a rate consistent with rate of de-
.perhaps contrary to conventional wisdom, cline in new businesses young companies actually pay fairly well. State licensing laws have exploded in the Young adults are more willing to bear the past 40 years. Federal banking and health risks that characterize young companies, care regulations have made big companies while older workers are more likely to be bigger. Intrusive rules among many agencies found occupying steadier jobs at older have made running a business difficult with- firms. In addition, employees aged 25 to out teams of highly paid lawyers. All of these 34 years old earn 4 percent more at firms factors favor larger, older companies at the that are less than five years old compared expense of young ones, and opportunity for to their peers at companies more than 20 young workers is the most prominent casualty. years old.4 Clearly, as startups decline in the U.S. economy and produce fewer jobs, Ryan Streeter is Director of the Center for Politics young Americans are the biggest losers. and Governance at the University of Texas at Austin.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 101 CHANGES 10–year ▲ 68 5–year ▲ 11 1–year ▲ 18
Economically ANNUAL NUMBER OF PLANNED REGULATIONS Significant EXPECTED TO COST $100 MILLION OR MORE 10yr 5yr 1yr Federal Regulations The number of new economically significant federal regulations pending each year rose by 68 regulations from 2005 to 2015.
NOTE: Figures are for Fall period except for 2012 which is for Spring/Fall. SOURCES: The Heritage Foundation, “Red Tape Rising,” and Oce of Management and
Budget.
Regulatory Barriers to Reaching the Middle Class Salim Furth
hat does it mean to be middle-class in or she faces heavy penalties. The classic ap- WAmerica today? Although there are excep- proach to regulation left citizens free to work, tions, a middle-class lifestyle in the U.S. today compete, and innovate as they wished. typically involves holding a full-time job, having a However, in more and more areas, govern- car, and earning enough to eventually buy a house. ments have stepped in to prejudge who may Economic growth over the past genera- or may not participate in the market. Rather tion has objectively increased income and than allowing home builders, automakers, and consumption.1 So why do so many Americans professionals to compete on an equal playing feel that those middle-class milestones are field with the same rules, government has in- becoming harder to achieve? One reason for tervened in each of these crucial sectors and the disconnect between data and perception is colluded with economic insiders to raise prices the growth of prejudicial regulation in the eco- and decrease opportunity. nomic areas that define middle-class status. A Heritage Foundation research paper pub- In the classic understanding of economic lished in 2015 examined a dozen cases of over- regulation, the government sets out the rules regulation and estimated that the average fam- and lets the market work. If someone breaks the ily pays $4,440 a year in higher prices thanks to rules—perpetrating fraud or malpractice—he the market restrictions of those regulations.2
102 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity Home prices are heavily influenced by lo- Even families that already are well-employed cal regulation. In reasonably regulated cities suffer from “permission slip” government. For and suburbs, the government enforces safety the typical American household, license re- requirements through building codes, but in quirements for professionals, from barbers to a growing number of municipalities, central teachers to dentists, cost $1,037 per year.4 planners and nosy neighbors are given veto At the federal level, overregulation of en- power over construction projects large and ergy markets and auto manufactures sub- small. The result is that the supply of hous- stantially raises the costs of transportation. ing cannot expand as it should, so prices rise, Fuel economy standards implemented by the pushing out families at the edge of the middle Obama and Bush Administrations have added class. The worst offenders are coastal cities in $3,800 to the cost of the average car.5 The fed- California, Florida, and the Northeast, where eral mandate to include inefficient corn etha- the costs of owning a home are 10 percent or nol in gasoline also hits drivers’ wallets. 20 percent higher than they would be if they Policymakers can square the optimistic were regulated modestly, as they are in most views of economists with the views of voters Midwestern and Southern cities.3 who feel that the U.S. economy is failing them Moving up to the state level, one finds an by focusing on making it easier for struggling astounding web of regulation that forces busi- families to achieve middle-class status. Less nesses and individual employees to seek per- regulation of housing, career, and fuel markets mission from the state before opening a store would help more families to achieve the self- or taking a job. The effect of this “permission sufficiency that is the foundation of the Ameri- slip” approach to government is to decrease can Dream. opportunity and competition. The license re- gime makes it harder for aspiring profession- Salim Furth is a Research Fellow in als to begin careers and for entrepreneurs to Macroeconomics in the Center for Data Analysis, start new businesses. of the Institute for Economic Freedom and Opportunity, at The Heritage Foundation.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 103 CHANGES 10–year ▼ 5.8 5–year ▼ 2.4 1–year ▼ 0.8
Economic U.S. OVERALL SCORE FROM THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION’S Freedom INDEX OF ECONOMIC FREEDOM 10yr 5yr 1yr The overall U.S. score in the Index of Economic Freedom fell by 5.8
points from 2006 to 2016.
SOURCE: The Heritage Foundation and Wall Street Journal, 2016 Index of Economic
.Freedom
The Cultural Conditions of Prosperity Alejandro A. Chafuen
ow are economic freedom, culture, and Foundation in describing its 2016 Index of Hthe basic social institutions of a free so- Economic Freedom: ciety connected? Family and private proper- ty are the two pillars of the free society. The Economic freedom is the fundamental right institutions of private property emerged not of every human to control his or her own only to improve economic results, but also to labor and property. In an economically free society, individuals are free to work, produce, protect the intergenerational family: Passing consume, and invest in any way they please. down homes and lands generation by gen- In economically free societies, governments eration was seen as essential to preserving allow labor, capital, and goods to move freely, a family. As the family is a social institution and refrain from coercion or constraint of and occupies a space between the individual liberty beyond the extent necessary to protect and maintain liberty itself.1 and the state, socialists have attacked the in- stitution almost as much as they attack pri- vate property. Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Private property is a condition sine qua Freedom has been measuring America’s eco- non of economic freedom. I usually define nomic freedom since 1995. Scores for freedom this freedom as the right of adults to try to from corruption have suffered the worst de- use what they own as they please. This defi- cline since then: They are down by 16 points. nition echoes the one used by The Heritage During this past decade, the ratings on respect
104 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity for private property in the U.S. have fallen over In the latest Index of Economic Freedom, 10 points while the overall score of U.S. eco- the United States ranks a dismal 154th in nomic freedom has fallen by almost six points. fiscal freedom and freedom from regula- In fact, eight out of the 10 aspects of America’s tion and 131st in government spending. The economic freedom measured in the Index show growth of the state and overregulation also declines. While respect for private property has a negative impact on a culture of respect has declined considerably, other critical areas for laws. have recorded score deteriorations during this I saw the impact of this in my native coun- decade as well: Financial freedom, for instance, try, Argentina. After decades of government declined by 20 points, and government spend- growth and regulation, Jorge Luís Borges ing has deteriorated by over 6 points (although (1899–1986), the country’s most famous writ- it has shown improvement during the past er, remarked that “the Argentine tends to lack couple of years). a moral, not an intellectual culture; he is less Human freedom encompasses more than concerned to be seen as immoral rather than just economic freedom. We know that eco- as a fool. Dishonesty, as we know, enjoys the nomic freedom leads to prosperity. A person veneration of all, it is called creole wise-guy can use his economic freedom to buy alcohol (viveza criolla).”2 The term describes an atti- or drugs yet remain a slave to his addictions. tude whereby most of the population ignores We have also learned that the economic prob- the rules; they find and use loopholes, and the lems that come with low rates of economic sense of responsibility and consideration for growth (such as reduced opportunity and low others is weakened.3 wage growth) can cause families to endure The weakening of the rule of law is one stress and ultimately to break up. of the main reasons for the gradual decline The family, as Michael Novak has taught us, in economic freedom in the United States, is the original and best department of health, which is now down to 11th place in the world. education, and welfare; therefore, lower levels Reversing this downward trend is essential in
,of economic freedom negatively affect several order to nurture a culture of respect, liberty cultural indicators, albeit indirectly. Within and responsibility and increase widespread a strong and supportive family environment, opportunities for prosperity. one absorbs such key values as abstinence, fidelity, and work ethic and practices like re- Alejandro A. Chafuen is President of the ligious observance and volunteer work. Reli- Atlas Network. ance on the state tends to reduce a sense of personal responsibility and commitment to sustaining and protecting the rule of law.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 105 Section Three Endnotes
Ensuring the Opportunity to Choose a Promising Future Diana Furchtgott-Roth 1. U.S. Department of Agriculture, “Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Participation and Costs (Data as of May 6, 2016),” http://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/pd/SNAPsummary.pdf (accessed May 11, 2016). 2. U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data, “Table 1. Public High School 4-Year Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rate (ACGR), by Race/Ethnicity and Selected Demographics for the United States, the 50 States, and the District of Columbia: School Year 2013–14,” September 4, 2015, https://nces.ed.gov/ccd/tables/ACGR_RE_and_characteristics_2013-14.asp (accessed May 11, 2016). 3. U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, “Table 236.60. Total and Current Expenditures per Pupil in Fall Enrollment in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools, by Function and Subfunction: Selected Years, 1990–91 Through 2011–12,” July 2014, https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d14/tables/dt14_236.60.asp (accessed May 11, 2016). 4. Jason L. Riley, Please Stop Helping Us: How Liberals Make It Harder for Blacks to Succeed (New York: Encounter Books, 2014), pp. 123–124. 5. William G. Howell, Martin R. West, and Paul E. Peterson, “Reform Agenda Gains Strength,” Education Next, Vol. 13, No. 1 (Winter 2013). pp. 9–19, http://educationnext.org/reform-agenda-gains-strength/ (accessed May 11, 2016). 6. New York City Charter School Center, “New York City Charter Schools: 2014–2015 Enrollment Lottery Estimates,” April 2014, http://www.nyccharterschools.org/sites/default/files/resources/Lottery2014FinalReport.pdf (accessed May 11, 2016). 7. United States Conference of Catholic Bishops, “Catholic School Fact Sheet,” 2015, http://www.usccb.org/beliefs-and-teachings/how-we-teach/catholic-education/catholic-education-tool-kit.cfm (accessed May 12, 2016). 8. Center for Union Facts, “Protecting Bad Teachers: Tenure,” Teachers Union Exposed, http://www.teachersunionexposed.com/protecting.cfm (accessed May 12, 2016). 9. Jason Felch, Jessica Garrison, and Jason Song, “Bar Set Low for Lifetime Job in L.A. Schools,” Los Angeles Times, December 20, 2009, http://articles.latimes.com/2009/dec/20/local/la-me-teacher-tenure20-2009dec20 (accessed May 12, 2016). 10. Center for Union Facts, “National Education Association: Spending,” last updated August 22, 2014, https://www.unionfacts.com/union/National_Education_Association#spending-tab (accessed May 12, 2016), and “American Federation of Teachers: Spending,” last updated August 22, 2014, https://www.unionfacts.com/union/American_Federation_of_Teachers#spending-tab (accessed May 12, 2016). 11. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Characteristics of Minimum Wage Workers, 2014,” BLS Report No. 1054, April 2015, p. 1, http://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/minimum-wage/archive/characteristics-of-minimum-wage-workers-2014.pdf (accessed May 12, 2016). 12. News release, “The Employment Situation—April 1, 2016,” U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 6, 2016, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf (accessed May 12, 2016). 13. Carl Levin, “Statement of Senator Carl Levin (D–Mich.) Before U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations on Offshore Profit Shifting and the U.S. Tax Code,” September 20, 2012, https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/download/?id=31551efc-5f77-4e27-af5e-4d590de662bd (accessed May 12, 2016). 14. Richard Rubin, “U.S. Companies Are Stashing $2.1 Trillion Overseas to Avoid Taxes,” Bloomberg, March 4, 2015, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-04/u-s-companies-are-stashing-2-1-trillion-overseas-to-avoid-taxes (accessed May 12, 2016).
Charter Schools: Expanding Educational Opportunity for All Nina Rees 1. Charter Public Schools Serving 250,000 New Students in 2015-16. National Alliance for Public Charter Schools. http://www.publiccharters.org/press/new-closed-report/. 2. Facts: Charter Schools, Center for Education Reform, February 2016, https://www.edreform.com/issues/choice-charter-schools/facts/.
106 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity 3. A Closer Look at the Charter School Movement. National Alliance for Public Charter Schools. Charter Schools, Students, and Management Organizations, 2015-16. http://www.publiccharters.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/New-Closed-2016.pdf 4. Center for Research on Education Outcomes, Stanford University, Urban Charter School Study: Report on 41 Regions, 2015, https://urbancharters.stanford.edu/download/Urban%20Charter%20School%20Study%20Report%20on%2041%20Regions.pdf (accessed June 2, 2016).
The Overlooked Relationship Between Private School Choice and Charter Growth Jay P. Greene 1. The Comprehensive Longitudinal Evaluation of the Milwaukee Parent Choice Scholarship Program: Summary of Final Reports, SCDP Milwaukee Evaluation, Report #36, University of Arkansas, February 2012, at http://www.uaedreform.org/downloads/2012/02/report-36-the-comprehensive-longitudinal-evaluation-of-the-milwaukee- parental-choice-program.pdf ; Matthew M. Chingos and Peterson, “Experimentally Estimated Impacts of School Vouchers on College Enrollment and Degree Attainment,” Journal of Public Economics 122 (Feb. 2015), pp. 1-12, doi:10.1016/j. jpubeco.2014.11.013; Patrick J. Wolf, Brian Kisida, Babette Gutmann, Michael Puma, Nada Eissa, and Lou Rizzo, “School Vouchers and Student Outcomes: Experimental Evidence from Washington, DC,” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 32, no. 2 (Spring 2013), pp. 246-70, doi:10.1002/pam.21691; and Derek Neal , "The Effects of Catholic Secondary Schooling on Educational Achievement,"Journal of Labor Economics 15, no. 1, Part 1 (Jan., 1997): DOI: 10.1086/209848. 2. Sass, T. R., Zimmer, R. W., Gill, B. P. and Booker, T. K. (2016), Charter High Schools’ Effects on Long-Term Attainment and Earnings. J. Pol. Anal. Manage. doi: 10.1002/pam.21913.
Graduation Rates Are Up, But Not College Preparedness Andy Smarick 1. Achievement Gap Narrows as High School Graduation Rates for Minority Students Improve Faster than Rest of Nation. U.S. Department of Education. March 2015. http://www.ed.gov/news/press-releases/achievement-gap-narrows-high-school-graduation-rates-minority-students-improve- faster-rest-nation. 2. U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, Web Tables: An Overview of Classes Taken and Credits Earned by Beginning Postsecondary Students, NCES 2013-151rev, November 2012, p. 12, https://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2013151rev (accessed May 26, 2016).
,Tom Wood, “The Sheepskin Effect,”National Association of Scholars, July 2009 .3 https://www.nas.org/articles/The_Sheepskin_Effect (accessed May 26, 2016).
Student Loan Debt: Time for Radical Reform Richard Vedder 1. Stephanie Riegg Cellini and Claudia Goldin, “Does Federal Student Aid Raise Tuition? New Evidence on For-Profit Colleges,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 17827, February 2012, http://www.nber.org/papers/w17827.pdf (accessed June 2, 2016); David O. Lucca, Taylor Nadauld, and Karen Shen, “Credit Supply and the Rise in College Tuition: Evidence from the Expansion in Federal Student Aid Programs,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report No. 733, July 2015, revised March 2016, https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr733.pdf (accessed May 26, 2016). 2. Richard K. Vedder, “The Rising Cost of College: Lowering It Will Provide Young People with One Less Obstacle to Overcome in Life,” The Ripon Forum, Vol. 50, No. 2 (April 2016), http://www.riponsociety.org/article/the-rising-cost-of-college/ (accessed May 26, 2016). 3. Allysia Finley, “Richard Vedder: The Real Reason College Costs So Much,” The Wall Street Journal, August 26, 2013, http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887324619504579029282438522674 (accessed May 26, 2016). 4. Catherine Rampell, “A History of College Grade Inflation,”The New York Times, July 14, 2011, http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/14/the-history-of-college-grade-inflation/?_r=0 (accessed May 26, 2016). 5. Philip S. Babcock and Mindy Marks, “The Falling Time Cost of College: Evidence from Half a Century of Time Use Data,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 15954, April 2010, http://www.nber.org/papers/w15954.pdf (accessed May 26, 2016).
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 107 Employment Has Value Beyond a Paycheck James Sherk 1. Gallup “Work and Workplace” poll conducted August 5–9, 2015, with a random sample of 485 adults who were employed full- time or part-time. Results available online at http://www.gallup.com/poll/1720/work-work-place.aspx (accessed June 2, 2016).
What the Unemployment Rate Isn’t Telling Us William W. Beach 1. Janet L. Yellen, “Labor Market Dynamics and Monetary Policy,” remarks at Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 22, 2014, http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20140822a.htm (accessed June 24, 2016). 2. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey," June 20, 2016, data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 (accessed June 16, 2016). 3. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Table A-1, “Employment Status of the Civilian Noninstitutional Population 16 Years and Over, 1981 to Date,” June 3, 2016, www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea01.htm (accessed June 16, 2016). 4. See James Sherk, “Not Looking for Work: Why Labor Force Participation Has Fallen During the Recovery,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 2722, September 4, 2014, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/09/not-looking-for-work-why-labor- force-participation-has-fallen-during-the-recovery, and David Aaronson, Jonathan Davis, and Luojia Hu, “Explaining the Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate,” Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Chicago Fed Letter No. 296, March 2012.
Job Openings Signal Optimism, But Hiring Lags Behind Mark Wilson
1. See U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey,” http://www.bls.gov/jlt/ (accessed June 2, 2016). 2. See U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, “Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS),” http://www.census.gov/ces/dataproducts/bds/ (accessed June 2, 2016). 3. See, for example, Robert W. Fairlie, Arnobio Morelix, E. J. Reedy, and Joshua Russell, The Kauffman Index: Startup Activity: National Trends, Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, 2015, http://www.kauffman.org/~/media/kauffman_org/research%20reports%20and%20covers/2015/05/kauffman_index_startup_ activity_national_trends_2015.pdf (accessed June 2, 2016).
Job Hires Rate Slow to Recover Rea S. Hederman, Jr. 1. Edward Harris and Shannon Mok, “How the CBO Estimates the Effects of the Affordable Care Act on the Labor Market,” Congressional Budget Office, Working Paper 2015-09, December 2015, http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/workingpaper/51065-ACA_Labor_Market_Effects_WP.pdf (accessed June 9, 2016). 2. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey News Release," March 17, 2016, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_03172016.htm (accessed June 1, 2016). 3. Kevin Dubina "Job Openings Reach a New High, Hires and Quits Also Increase," Monthly Labor Review, June 2015, http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2015/article/job-openings-reach-a-new-high-hires-and-quits-also-increase.htm (accessed June 1, 2016).
Making Washington Work for Women and Their Families Sabrina L. Schaeffer 1. H.R. 932, 114th Cong., 1st Sess., introduced February 12, 2015, https://www.congress.gov/114/bills/hr932/BILLS-114hr932ih.pdf (accessed June 3, 2026). 2. H.R. 1439, 114th Cong., 1st Sess., introduced March 19, 2025, https://www.congress.gov/114/bills/hr1439/BILLS-114hr1439ih.pdf (accessed June 3, 2016); S. 786, 114th Cong., 1st Sess., introduced March 18, 2015, https://www.congress.gov/114/bills/s786/BILLS-114s786is.pdf (accessed June 3, 2016). 3. Independent Women’s Forum, What Do Women Want (in a Workplace)?, June 8, 2015, http://pdf.iwf.org/IWF-Workplace-C2O-Final.pdf (accessed June 23, 2016).
108 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity The Waning Culture of American Entrepreneurship Ryan Streeter 1. John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, and Javier Miranda, “Business Dynamics Statistics Briefing: Where Have All the Young Firms Gone?” Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, May 2012, p. 4 https://www.census.gov/ces/pdf/BDS_StatBrief6_Young_Firms.pdf (accessed April 20, 2016). 2. Andrew Flowers, “Big Business Is Getting Bigger,” FiveThirtyEight, May 18, 2015, http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/big-business-is-getting-bigger/ (accessed April 20, 2016). 3. John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, and Javier Miranda, “Business Dynamics Statistics Briefing: Jobs Created from Business Startups in the United States,” Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, January 2009, http://www.kauffman.org/~/media/kauffman_org/research%20reports%20and%20covers/2009/01/bds_jobs_created_011209b. pdf (accessed June 3, 2016); Tim Kane, “The Importance of Startups in Job Creation and Job Destruction,” Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, Kauffman Foundation Research Series: Firm Formation and Economic Growth, July 2010, http://www.kauffman.org/~/media/kauffman_org/research%20reports%20and%20covers/2010/07/firm_formation_importance_ of_startups.pdf (accessed June 3, 2016); and Tim Kane, “The Collapse of Startups in Job Creation,” Hudson Institute Economic Policy Briefing Paper, September 2012, http://www.hudson.org/content/researchattachments/attachment/1067/kane--thecollapseofstartupsinjobcreation0912web.pdf (accessed June 3, 2016). 4. Paige Ouimet and Rebecca Zarutskie, “Who Works for Startups? The Relation Between Firm Age, Employee Age, and Growth,” August 2012, p. 17, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTFR/Resources/RebeccaZardutskie_January29_2013.pdf (accessed April 20, 2016). 5. Paul Kedrosky, “Getting the Bug: Is (Growth) Entrepreneurship Contagious?” Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, October 2013, http://www.kauffman.org/~/media/kauffman_org/research%20reports%20and%20covers/2013/10/isentrepreneurshipcontagious.pdf (accessed April 20, 2016).
Regulatory Barriers to Reaching the Middle Class Salim Furth 1. James Sherk, “Productivity and Compensation: Growing Together,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 2825, July 17, 2013, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/07/productivity-and-compensation-growing-together. 2. Salim Furth, “Costly Mistakes: How Bad Policies Raise the Cost of Living,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 3081,
.November 23, 2015, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2015/11/costly-mistakes-how-bad-policies-raise-the-cost-of-living 3. Salim Furth, “Local Land-Use Reform Can Save Money and Raise Wages,” Heritage Foundation Issue Brief No. 4536, April 15, 2016, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2016/04/local-land-use-reform-can-save-money-and-raise-wages. 4. Furth, “Costly Mistakes: How Bad Policies Raise the Cost of Living.” 5. Salim Furth and David W. Kreutzer, “Fuel Economy Standards Are a Costly Mistake,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 3096, March 4, 2016, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2016/03/fuel-economy-standards-are-a-costly-mistake.
The Cultural Conditions of Prosperity Alejandro A. Chafuen 1. “What Is Economic Freedom?” in “Frequently Asked Questions,” 2016 Index of Economic Freedom website, The Heritage Foundation, http://www.heritage.org/index/about (accessed June 4, 2016). 2. Jorge Lanata, 2004, ADN: Mapa Genético de los Defectos Argentinos (Buenos Aires: Editorial Planeta, 2004), p. 104. Quotation translated from Spanish by the author. 3. Leonard P. Liggio and Alejandro A. Chafuen, “Cultural and Religious Foundations of Private Property,” Chapter 1 in The Elgar Companion to the Economics of Property Rights, ed. Enrico Colombatto (Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 2004).
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 109
Supplementary Statistical Analysis Jamie Bryan Hall
or each indicator, the latest figure and its While we use the full series of available data Fone-year, five-year, and 10-year changes for each indicator, the Index highlights recent are easy to understand in terms of raw data, trends. We allow older data to lose statistical but we need supplementary statistical analy- influence gradually over time by calculating sis to determine whether its observed trend geometrically-decaying importance weights may be merely random variation in the data. with a common ratio of 0.8. For example, data To determine the appropriate regression from 10 years prior to the latest year will re- model to use for each indicator, we must ceive a weight of 0.810 ≈ 0.134 times the weight identify which indicators are trend station- of the data from the latest year. This choice of ary and which are possibly non-stationary. common ratio means that average age of the A trend stationary indicator shows random data used, weighted by its importance in the movement around a trend line with a ten- regression model, is about 5 years prior to the dency to return to that trend line over time, latest year, the same weighted average age as
while a non-stationary indicator follows a if we had used equally-weighted data from the random walk (possibly with drift).1 We first latest and 10 previous years, but with far less calculate the augmented Dickey-Fuller test sensitivity to the behavior of the indicator statistic under the null hypothesis that the 5-10 years prior to the latest year.2 indicator follows a random walk with drift. For each trend stationary indicator, we For p-values less than 0.1 (i.e., when there is then regress the data against time, allowing less than 10 percent chance that as extreme a for the possibility that the deviations from value of the test statistic would be observed the trend line depend on those from the pre- if the null hypothesis were true), we reject vious period and may not be normally distrib- the null hypothesis and deem the indica- uted. This is accomplished by estimating an tor to be trend stationary. Of the 31 indica- ARIMA (1, 0, 0) model3 with robust standard tors, 17 are trend stationary and 14 possibly errors using our importance weights. For non-stationary. each regression, we report the p-value of the
1. The quintessential example of a non-stationary time series is the number of “heads” minus the number of “tails” in a series of coin tosses. Someone who, following several consecutive heads, states that he or she is “due” for tails on the next toss is implicitly and incorrectly assuming that the series is stationary. 2. We examined the sensitivity of the regression model results to the choice of common ratio in the range from 0.7 to 0.9 and found that it has little effect on the statistical significance of most of the estimated trend parameters. 3. An ARIMA (p, d, q) model represents autoregressive integrated moving average with parameters p, d, and q and is the primary class of model used in time series analysis. The model may be extended in a variety of ways, and an explanation of the methods used to select an appropriate model structure is beyond the scope of our report.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 111 test statistic for the trend parameter under indicators show a non-zero constant param- the null hypothesis of a zero trend. Ten of 17 eter, which is analogous to a non-zero trend indicators have a p-value less than 0.1, indi- parameter for a trend stationary indicator. cating a non-zero trend. Overall, 18 of 31 indicators in the Index For each non-stationary indicator, we es- show a statistically-significant trend, six of timate a regression model of the year-to-year which are on the right track and 12 of which change in the available data, allowing for the are on the wrong track, while 13 currently possibility that the errors depend on those show no clear statistically significant trend. from the previous period and may not be nor- The comprehensive table on pp. 114–115 re- mally distributed. This is accomplished by es- ports these results, which we calculated using timating an ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model with robust the statistical software package Stata 13. standard errors using our importance weights. For these regressions, we report the p-value Jamie Bryan Hall is a Senior Policy Analyst in of the test statistic for the constant param- the Center for Data Analysis, of the Institute eter under the null hypothesis of a zero con- for Economic Freedom and Opportunity, at The stant. With p-values less than 0.1, eight of 14 Heritage Foundation.
112 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity
p-value heritage.org TREND* STATISTICAL STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ANALYSIS – – – – – – – – – – – Parameter – – – – – – – – – –Year – – – – – – – – – – – – – –Year (–Year) (–Year) RECENT CHANGE RECENT 2016 Index of Culture and Opportunity of Culture Index 2016 – – – – – – – – – –Year (–Year) (–Year) Figure DATA Year LATEST AVAILABLE AVAILABLE LATEST – Working or Searching for Work for or Searching – Working Living in Subsidized Housing in Thousands Living in Subsidized Assistance from TANFAFDC in Thousands TANFAFDC from Assistance Activity Engaging in Work Recipients TANF Adult
Self-Su ciency Percentage of Individuals Who Live in Poverty (Excluding Welfare Benefi ts) Benefi Welfare (Excluding in Poverty Live of Individuals Who Percentage ciency Self-Su Abstinence Among High Schoolers Percentage of High Schoolers Who Ever Had Sex Had Sex Ever Who of High Schoolers Percentage Among High Schoolers Abstinence Total Welfare Spending Federal and State Welfare Spending in Billions of Dollars Welfare and State Spending Federal Welfare Total in Thousands Stamps Food Number of Individuals Receiving Participation Stamp Food Total Fertility Rate Births per Woman Rate Fertility Total Households Living in Single-Parent of Children Households Percentage Single-Parent Divorce Rate Number of Divorces per Total Population Population per Total Number of Divorces Rate Divorce Unmarried Women of Births to Percentage Birth Rate Unwed Marriage Rate Marriages per Unmarried Females Ages and Older Ages Marriages per Unmarried Females Marriage Rate Ages of Adults Percentage Rate Participation Labor Force INDICATOR Religious Attendance Percentage Attending Religious Services Weekly Services Religious Attending Percentage Attendance Religious Abortion Rate Abortions per Women Ages – Ages Abortions per Women Abortion Rate Subsidized Housing Participation Number of Individuals Housing Participation Subsidized Teen Drug Use Percentage of th-graders Who Used Illicit Drugs in Past Month Used Illicit Drugs in Past Who of th-graders Percentage Drug Use Teen Cash Number of Individuals Receiving Participation TANF of Work-Eligible Percentage Rate Participation Work TANF Violent Crime Rate Number of Crimes per People Number of Crimes Rate Crime Violent Volunteering Percentage of Adults Volunteering of Adults Percentage Volunteering
CULTURE CULTURE DEPENDENCE AND POVERTY APPENDIX TABLE 1 APPENDIX TABLE 1 of 2) (Page Table Master Indicators, and Opportunity Culture each indicator the model for develop used to procedures statistical * The 111–112. on pp. explained are of its trend cance the signifi for and test
114 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity p-value p-value heritage.org heritage.org TREND* TREND* STATISTICAL STATISTICAL STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ANALYSIS OF ANALYSIS – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Parameter Parameter – – – – – – – – – – – – – –Year –Year – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –Year –Year (–Year) (–Year) (–Year) (–Year) RECENT CHANGE RECENT CHANGE RECENT 2016 Index of Culture and Opportunity of Culture Index 2016 and Opportunity of Culture Index 2016 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –Year –Year (–Year) (–Year) (–Year) Figure Figure DATA DATA Year Year LATEST AVAILABLE AVAILABLE LATEST AVAILABLE LATEST ** – Working or Searching for Work for or Searching – Working Living in Subsidized Housing in Thousands Living in Subsidized Assistance from TANFAFDC in Thousands TANFAFDC from Assistance Activity Engaging in Work Recipients TANF Adult Enrolled in Private School-Choice Programs Programs School-Choice in Private Enrolled Vacancies as a Percentage of All Private-Sector Jobs of All Private-Sector as a Percentage Vacancies Receiving High School Diploma Four Years After Starting th Grade Starting After Years High School Diploma Four Receiving Regulations Expected to Cost Million or More Million or More Cost to Expected Regulations Four-Year Colleges and Universities in Dollars and Universities Colleges Four-Year Index of Economic Freedom Economic of Index Foundations
Self-Su ciency Percentage of Individuals Who Live in Poverty (Excluding Welfare Benefi ts) Benefi Welfare (Excluding in Poverty Live of Individuals Who Percentage ciency Self-Su Abstinence Among High Schoolers Percentage of High Schoolers Who Ever Had Sex Had Sex Ever Who of High Schoolers Percentage Among High Schoolers Abstinence Total Welfare Spending Federal and State Welfare Spending in Billions of Dollars Welfare and State Spending Federal Welfare Total in Thousands Stamps Food Number of Individuals Receiving Participation Stamp Food Total Fertility Rate Births per Woman Rate Fertility Total Households Living in Single-Parent of Children Households Percentage Single-Parent Divorce Rate Number of Divorces per Total Population Population per Total Number of Divorces Rate Divorce Unmarried Women of Births to Percentage Birth Rate Unwed Marriage Rate Marriages per Unmarried Females Ages and Older Ages Marriages per Unmarried Females Marriage Rate Ages of Adults Percentage Rate Participation Labor Force Scale on a -Point Students th Grade for ciency Profi Reading ciency Profi Reading INDICATOR INDICATOR Religious Attendance Percentage Attending Religious Services Weekly Services Religious Attending Percentage Attendance Religious Abortion Rate Abortions per Women Ages – Ages Abortions per Women Abortion Rate Subsidized Housing Participation Number of Individuals Housing Participation Subsidized Teen Drug Use Percentage of th-graders Who Used Illicit Drugs in Past Month Used Illicit Drugs in Past Who of th-graders Percentage Drug Use Teen Cash Number of Individuals Receiving Participation TANF of Work-Eligible Percentage Rate Participation Work TANF Charter School Enrollment Number of Students Enrolled in Charter Schools in Charter Enrolled Number of Students School Enrollment Charter Number of Students Participation School-Choice Private Violent Crime Rate Number of Crimes per People Number of Crimes Rate Crime Violent Volunteering Percentage of Adults Volunteering of Adults Percentage Volunteering Job Openings Rate Monthly Private-Sector Job Openings Private-Sector Monthly Job Openings Rate High School Graduation Rate Percentage of Public School Students of Public School Students Percentage Rate High School Graduation Major Federal Regulations Annual Number of Planned Regulations Major Federal Job Hires Rate Monthly Private-Sector New Hires as a Percentage of All Private-Sector Jobs of All Private-Sector as a Percentage Hires New Private-Sector Monthly Rate Job Hires Taxes Federal by of GDP Taken Percentage Government Federal by Away Taxed Money Employment Private-Sector of Total Jobs as a Percentage Start-Up Job Share Start-Up Unemployment Rate Percentage of Unemployed Civilians Ages – Civilians Ages of Unemployed Percentage Rate Unemployment Student Loan Debt Average Student Debt per Borrower Graduate Graduate Debt per Borrower Student Debt Average Loan Student Working Are – Who of Civilians Ages Percentage Ratio Employment-Population Economic Freedom US Overall Score from the Heritage from Score Overall US Freedom Economic
CULTURE CULTURE DEPENDENCE AND POVERTY OPPORTUNITY GENERAL APPENDIX TABLE 1 APPENDIX TABLE 1 of 2) (Page Table Master Indicators, and Opportunity Culture each indicator the model for develop used to procedures statistical * The 111–112. on pp. explained are of its trend cance the signifi for and test 1 APPENDIX TABLE 2 of 2) (Page Table Master Indicators, and Opportunity Culture each indicator the model for develop used to procedures statistical * The 111–112. on pp. explained are of its trend cance the signifi for and test ** Forecast.
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 115 Indicator Sources
Marriage Marriage rate (per 1,000 unmarried women age 15 and older), 1970–1996: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2001 (Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2002), Table 117, http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/01statab/vitstat.pdf (accessed July 10, 2014). Marriage rate, 1997–2012: Calculated by The Heritage Foundation by dividing the annual number of marriages, provided by the National Center for Health Statistics, by the number of unmarried women age 15 and older, provided by the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, and then multiplying the ratio by 1,000. Marriage rate, 1997: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, “Births, Deaths, Marriages, and Divorces: Provisional Data for 1998,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 47, No. 21 (June 6, 1999), Table 1, http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr47/nvs47_21.pdf (accessed July 12, 2014). Number of marriages, 1998–1999: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, “Births, Deaths, Marriages, and Divorces: Provisional Data for 1999,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 48, No. 19 (February 22, 2001), Table 1, http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr48/nvs48_19.pdf (accessed July 12, 2014). Number of marriages, 2000–2014: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “National Marriage and Divorce Rate Trends,” National Vital Statistics System, http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/marriage_divorce_tables.htm (accessed June 10, 2016). Number of unmarried women age 15 and older: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, “People and Households, Families and Living Arrangements Main, Data, Historical Time Series, Table MS-1,” http://www.census.gov/hhes/families/data/marital.html (accessed April 4, 2016).
Divorce Divorce rate, 1960–1969: Sally C. Clarke, “Advanced Reports of Final Divorce Statistics, 1989 and 1990,” Monthly Vital Statistics Report, Vol. 43, No. 9 (March 22, 1995), Table 1, http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/mvsr/supp/mv43_09s.pdf (accessed July 12, 2014). Divorce
rate, 1970–1999: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2012 (Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2013), Table 78, http://www.census.gov/prod/2011pubs/12statab/vitstat.pdf (accessed July 12, 2014). Divorce rate, 2000–2014: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “National Marriage and Divorce Rate Trends,” National Vital Statistics System, http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/marriage_divorce_tables.htm (accessed February 29, 2016). Note: Data in this chart are based on divorces per 1,000 total population, including both married and unmarried adults, as well as children. The National Center for Health Statistics used to calculate a more refined divorce rate, based on the number of divorces per 1,000 married women ages 15 and older, but no longer does so. In 1996, the National Center for Health Statistics began collecting only provisional divorce rate data, based on preliminary counts of divorce certificates from states. As of 2005, six states have stopped reporting any divorce statistics: California, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Louisiana, and Minnesota. Thus, population data for these states are also excluded when calculating the divorce rate.
Fertility Brady E. Hamilton et al., “Births: Final Data for 2014,” U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 64, No. 12 (December 23, 2015), Tables 4 and 8, http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/nvsr64_12.pdf (accessed February 29, 2016).
Single-Parent Households U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, “Families and Living Arrangements: Living Arrangements of Children,” Table CH-1, http://www.census.gov/hhes/families/data/children.html (accessed February 29, 2016). Note: The percentage of children in single-parent households was calculated by dividing the total number of children in one-parent households by all children in the population. Prior to 2007, children living with unwed cohabiting parents were included with children living in single-parent households. Starting in 2007, the U.S. Census included children living with unwed cohabiting parents with “two- parent” households. However, this Index counts children living in unwed cohabiting households with children living in single-parent households because social science research shows that outcomes for children living in cohabiting households are more similar to those living with single parents than to those living with married parents.
116 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity Teen Drug Use Lloyd D. Johnston et al., Monitoring the Future National Survey on Results on Drug Use, 1975–2015: Overview, Key Findings on Adolescent Drug Use (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan, Institute for Social Research, February 2016), Table 7, http://www.monitoringthefuture.org/pubs/monographs/mtf-overview2015.pdf (accessed February 29, 2016).
Abstinence Among High Schoolers U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, High School YRBS, “Youth Online,” https://nccd.cdc.gov/Youthonline/App/Default.aspx (accessed June 24, 2016). Select “Sexual Behaviors,” “Ever had sexual intercourse,” “All Years,” “12th Grade.”
Abortion Rate 1973–1990: Rachel K. Jones and Jenna Jerman, “Abortion Incidence and Service Availability in the United States, 2011,” Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, Vol. 46, No. 1 (March 2014), Table 1, https://www.guttmacher.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/journals/psrh.46e0414.pdf (accessed June 10, 2016). 1991–2011: Rachel K. Jones and Kathryn Kooistra, “Abortion Incidence and Access to Services in the United States, 2008,” Alan Guttmacher Institute, Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, Vol. 43, No. 1 (March 2011), Table 1, http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/psrh/full/4304111.pdf (accessed June 10, 2016).
Religious Attendance General Social Survey, “GSS 1972–2014 Cross-Sectional Cumulative Data (Release 1, March 3, 2015),” http://gssdataexplorer.norc.org (accessed June 23, 2016). Attendance percentages are estimated using the variables “year” (row) and “attend” (column), using the composite weight. “Weekly” attendance includes respondents who report attending “nearly every week” or more frequently; “monthly” attendance includes those who report attending “once” or “several times” a month; “yearly” attendance includes those who report attending “several times a year”; and “rarely/never” attendance includes those who report attending “once a year” or less frequently. Note: GSS data are surveyed biannually.
Violent Crime Rate 1993–2011: Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reports, “Crime in the United States 2012,” Table 1, “Crime in the United States by Volume and Rate per 100,000 inhabitants, 1993–2012,” http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2012/crime-in-the-u.s.-2012/tables/1tabledatadecoverviewpdf/table_1_crime_ in_the_united_states_by_volume_and_rate_per_100000_inhabitants_1993-2012.xls. (accessed June 23, 2014). 2013–2014: Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reports, “Crime in the United States 2014,” Table 1, “Crime in the United States by Volume and Rate per 100,000 inhabitants, 1995–2014,” https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/tables/table-1 (accessed February 29, 2016).
Volunteer News release, “Volunteering in the United States, 2006,” U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 10, 2007, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/volun_01102007.pdf (accessed June 2, 2016); news release, “Volunteering in the United States—2011,” U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 22, 2012, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/volun_02222012.htm (accessed June 2, 2016); news release, “Volunteering in the United States—2015,” U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 25, 2016, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/volun.nr0.htm (accessed February 29, 2016).
Labor Force Participation Rate U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, and U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/data/, multi-screen data search (accessed February 29, 2016).
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 117 Unwed Birth Rate All racial groups, 2014: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, “Births: Final Data for 2014,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 64, No. 12 (December 23, 2015), Table 14, http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/nvsr64_12.pdf (accessed February 29, 2016). All racial groups, 2013: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, “Births: Final Data for 2013,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 64, No. 1 (January 15, 2015), Table 14, http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/nvsr64_01.pdf (accessed May 12, 2015). All racial groups, 2012: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, “Births: Final Data for 2012,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 62, No. 9 (December 30, 2013), Table 14, http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr62/nvsr62_09.pdf (accessed June 2, 2016). All racial groups, 2011: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, “Births: Final Data for 2011,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 62, No. 1 (June 28, 2013), Table 14, http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr62/nvsr62_01.pdf (accessed July 14, 2014). All races; White, non-Hispanic; Black, non-Hispanic; Hispanic, 1993–2010: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics System, VitalStats. “Demographic characteristics of mother,” http://205.207.175.93/VitalStats/ReportFolders/ReportFolders.aspx (accessed July 14, 2014). Black, non-Hispanic, 1990: Child Trends Databank, “Appendix 1, Percentage of All Births that Were to Unmarried Women, by Race and Hispanic Origin, and Age, Selected Years, 1960-2011,” July 2013, http://www.childtrends.org/?indicators=births-to-unmarried-women (accessed June 22, 2016). All races, 1970–1992; White, 1970–1989; White, non-Hispanic, 1990–1992; Black, 1970–1989; Hispanic, 1990–1992: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, “Nonmarital Childbearing in the United States 1940–99,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 48, No. 16 October 18, 2000, Table 4 at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr48/nvs48_16.pdf (accessed July 14, 2014).
Self-Sufficiency 1959-2014: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements. Historical Poverty Tables–People, Table 2, “Poverty Status of People, by Family Relationship, Race, and Hispanic Origin, https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-poverty-people.html (accessed June 24, 2016). 1947-1958: Gordon Fisher, “Estimates of the Poverty Population Under the Current Official Definition for Years Before 1959,” U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, 1986.
Total Welfare Spending Heritage Foundation research based on U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Ways and Means, Green Book: Background Material and Data on Programs Within the Jurisdiction of the Committee on Ways and Means, July 15, 1994, http://greenbook.waysandmeans.house.gov/sites/greenbook.waysandmeans.house.gov/files/Letter%20of%20Transmittal.pdf (accessed June 10, 2016); Karen Spar, “Cash and Noncash Benefits for Persons with Limited Income: Eligibility Rules, Recipient and Expenditure Data FY2002–FY2004,” Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, March 27, 2006, http://file.wikileaks.org/file/crs/RL33340.pdf (accessed June 24, 2014), and earlier editions, 1976 to 2005; U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the United States Government (Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office, various years); U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the United States Government: Historical Tables (Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office, various years), https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals (accessed June 2, 2016); Peter Germanis and Richard Bavier, eds., Up from Dependency: A New National Public Policy Assistance Strategy, Supplement 1: The National Public Assistance System, Vol. 2: A Compendium of Public Assistance Programs: Major Cash, Food, and Housing Programs, Executive Office of the President, Interagency Low-Income Opportunity Advisory Board, September 1987, http://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED316589 (accessed June 10, 2016); Ida C. Merriam and Alfred M. Skolnik, Social Welfare Expenditures Under Public Programs in the United States, 1929–66, Social Security Administration, Office of Research and StatisticsResearch Report No. 25, 1968, https://archive.org/details/socialwelfareexp00merr (June 2, 2016); and Social Security Administration, Social Security Bulletin, various issues, https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/index.html (accessed June 2, 2016).
Subsidized Public Housing U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research, “Assisted Housing: National and Local: A Picture of Subsidized Households,” 1996–2015, http://www.huduser.org/portal/datasets/assthsg.html (accessed February 29, 2016). Note: There is a gap in annual data from this set prior to 2004.
118 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity Food Stamp Participation U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, “Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and Costs (Data as of May 6, 2016),” http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/SNAPsummary.htm (accessed June 10, 2016).
TANF Participation 1961–2013: U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Ways and Means, Green Book: Background Material and Data on Programs Within the Jurisdiction of the Committee on Ways and Means, 2014, Table 7-9, http://greenbook.waysandmeans.house.gov/sites/greenbook.waysandmeans.house.gov/files/Table%207-9.pdf (accessed June 10, 2016). 2013–2014: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, Data and Reports, TANF Caseload Data, http://www.acf.hhs.gov/programs/ofa/programs/tanf/data-reports (accessed February 29, 2016).
TANF Work Participation Rate U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, Work Participation Rate, 1997–2013, http://www.acf.hhs.gov/programs/ofa/resource-library/search?tag=4939#?tag=4939&type[3084]=3084&ajax=1 (accessed April 4, 2016).
Reading Proficiency U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), 1992, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013, and 2015 Reading Assessments, http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/naepdata/report.aspx?p=2-RED-2- 20153,20133,20113,20093,20073,20053,20033,20003,20002,19983,19982,19942,19922-RRPCM-TOTAL-NT-MN_MN-Y_J-0-0-5 (accessed March 21, 2016). Note: Previous editions of the Index of Culture and Opportunity used NAEP long-term trend data for 17-year-olds’ reading proficiency. The infrequency of updates of those data prompted this year’s switch to the more regularly released NAEP data for 8th-grade reading proficiency. Per NAEP policy, accommodations were not permitted for the years 1992 and 1994.
Charter School Enrollment 2000–2012: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics: 2013, Table 216.30, “Number and percentage distribution of public elementary and secondary students and schools, by traditional or charter school status and selected characteristics: Selected years, 1999–2000 through 2011–12,” http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d13/tables/dt13_216.30.asp?current=yes (accessed February 24, 2015). 2013–2014: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics: 2015, Table 216.20, “Number and enrollment of public elementary and secondary schools, by school level, type, and charter and magnet status: Selected years, 1990–91 through 2013–14,” https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d15/tables/dt15_216.20.asp (accessed February 29, 2016).
Private School Choice Participation Matt Frendewey et al., School Choice Yearbook 2015–2016, American Federation for Children Growth Fund, 2016, http://afcgrowthfund.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/2015-16-School-Choice-Yearbook-4_27.pdf (accessed June 10, 2016).
High School Graduation Rate 1970–2012: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics: 2013, Table 219.10, “High school graduates, by sex and control of school: Selected years, 1869–70 through 2023–24,” at http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d13/tables/dt13_219.10.asp?current=yes (accessed February 25, 2015). 2013: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics: 2015, Table 219.35, “Public high school averaged freshman graduation rate (AFGR), by state or jurisdiction: Selected years, 1990–91 through 2012–13,” http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d15/tables/dt15_219.35.asp (accessed February 29, 2016).
Student Loan Debt College Board, “Trends in Student Aid 2015,” Table 15, College Board Trends in Higher Education Series, 2015, http://trends.collegeboard.org/sites/default/files/trends-student-aid-web-final-508-2.pdf (accessed March 28, 2016).
The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org 119 Employment–Population Ratio U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, and U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/data/, multi-screen data search (accessed February 29, 2016).
Unemployment Rate U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, and U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/data/, multi-screen data search (accessed February 29, 2016).
Job Openings Rate U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, http://www.bls.gov/data/, multi-screen data search (accessed February 29, 2016).
Job Hires Rate U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, http://www.bls.gov/data/, multi-screen data search (accessed February 29, 2016).
Money Taxed Away by Federal Government U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2017: Historical Tables, Table 1.2, “Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits (–) as Percentages of GDP: 1930–2021,” http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals (accessed April 4, 2016).
Start-Up Job Share U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, “Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) Data Tables: Firm Characteristics: Firm Age,” http://www.census.gov/ces/dataproducts/bds/data_firm.html (accessed February 29, 2016). Total employment: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, “Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) Data Tables: Firm Characteristics: Economy Wide,” http://www.census.gov/ces/dataproducts/bds/data_firm.html (accessed February 29, 2016).
Major Federal Regulations U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, “Unified Agenda and Regulatory Plan Search Criteria,” http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaAdvancedSearch (accessed February 29, 2016); James L. Gattuso and Diane Katz, “Red Tape Rising 2016: Obama Regs Top $100 Billion Annually,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 3015, May 23, 2016, Chart 4, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2016/05/red-tape-rising-2016-obama-regs-top-100-billion-annually.
Economic Freedom Terry Miller, and Anthony B. Kim, 2016 Index of Economic Freedom (Washington: The Heritage Foundation and Dow Jones & Company, Inc., 2016), http://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedstates.
NOTE: Data for each indicator are drawn from publicly available sources. Each indicator used the most recently available data as of March 2016. Wherever possible, the Index uses annually updated data. The change over a period of years is reported for each of the indicators. For most indicators, this report includes 10-year, five-year, and one-year changes. The only exceptions are those for which annual data are not available, and those exceptions are noted on their charts. For three indicators— the percentage that attends religious services weekly, the percentage of sexually experienced 12th-graders, and reading proficiency of 8th-grade students—only biannual data were available. One indicator—charter school enrollment—transitioned from biannual to annual frequency in 2010. Indicators included in this report are illustrative and not a direct or exhaustive measure of culture and opportunity.
120 2016 Index of Culture & Opportunity Institute for Family, Community, and Opportunity 2016 Index of Culture and Opportunity Editorial Team
Jennifer A. Marshall Christine Kim Rachel Sheffield Vice President for the Institute Policy Analyst in the Institute Policy Analyst in the Institute for Family, Community, and for Family, Community, for Family, Community,
Opportunity, and the Joseph C. and Opportunity and Opportunity and Elizabeth A. Anderlik Fellow
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About The Heritage Foundation
ounded in 1973, The Heritage Foundation government funds and performs no contract Fis a research and educational institution— work. Heritage is one of the nation’s largest a think tank—whose mission is to formulate public policy research organizations. Hun- and promote conservative public policies dreds of thousands of individual members based on the principles of free enterprise, make it one of the most broadly supported limited government, individual freedom, tra- think tanks in America. ditional American values, and a strong na- For more information, or to support our tional defense. work, please contact: The Heritage Foundation We believe the principles and ideas of the at (800) 544-4843 or visit heritage.org. American Founding are worth conserving and The Institute for Family, Community, renewing. As policy entrepreneurs, we believe and Opportunity promotes a stronger soci- the most effective solutions are consistent ety. The work of the Institute advances: mar- with those principles and ideas. Our vision is riage, family, life, work, and religious liberty to build an America where freedom, opportu- to strengthen civil society; parents’ control of nity, prosperity, and civil society flourish. their children’s education, and patient-cen-
-Heritage’s staff pursues this mission by tered, market-based health care. The Insti performing timely, accurate research on key tute also emphasizes education on the proper policy issues and effectively marketing these nature of ordered liberty in America and the findings to our primary audiences: members means to advance and protect it. of Congress, key congressional staff members, The Institute produces annually the Index policymakers in the executive branch, the na- of Culture and Opportunity, which monitors tion’s news media, and the academic and poli- changes in key social and economic indicators cy communities. affecting American culture and opportunity. Governed by an independent Board of The Institute consists of the Richard and Trustees, The Heritage Foundation is an in- Helen DeVos Center for Religion and Civil So- dependent, tax-exempt institution. Heritage ciety, the B. Kenneth Simon Center for Princi- relies on the private financial support of the ples and Politics, the Center for Health Policy general public—individuals, foundations, and Studies, and the Domestic Policy Studies staff. corporations—for its income, and accepts no
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CHANGES 10–year ▲ 285,606 5–year ▲ 203,500 1–year ▲ 40,501
Private School NUMBER OF STUDENTS ENROLLED IN Choice PRIVATE SCHOOL CHOICE PROGRAMS RIGHT WRONG 10yr 5yr 1yr Culture Indicators TRACK TRACK Participation From 2005 to 2015, the Marriage Rate (p. 20) number of students CHANGES 10–year ▼ 4.0 5–year ▼ 3.0 1–year ▼ 0.8 enrolled in private school choice programs Divorce Rate (p. 22) ABORTIONS PER 1,000 WOMEN AGES 15–44 l Abortion increasedRate by 285,606. From 2001 to 2011, the 10yr 5yr 1yr abortion rate declined GeneralTotal Opportunity Fertility Rate (p. 24) RIGHT WRONG by 4 abortions per Indicators TRACK TRACK 1,000 women ages 15 Single-Parent Households (p. 26) to 44. CHANGES 10–year ▲ 2.1 5–year ▲ 0.5 1–year ▲ 0.3 Reading Proficiency(p. 80) l Teen Drug Use (p. 28) TOTAL NUMBER OFSelf-Suciency PERCENTAGE OF INDIVIDUALS WHO LIVE IN POVERTY ABORTIONS, IN MILLIONS Charter School Enrollment (p. 82) SOURCE: Alliance for School (EXCLUDING WELFARE BENEFITS) l From 2004 to 2014, Poverty & Dependence RIGHT WRONG Choice Yearbook, 2015–2016. 10yr 5yr 1yrAbstinence Among the percentage of TRACK TRACK Private SchoolIndicatorsHigh Choice Schoolers (p. 30) individuals living in Participation (p. 84) l poverty (excluding LaborAbortion Force Rate (p. 32) welfare benefits) High SchoolParticipation Rate (p. 52) l increased by 2.1 Graduation Rate (p. 86) l percentage points. UnwedReligious Birth AttendanceRate (p. 54) (p. 34) SOURCE: Alan Guttmacher Student Loan Debt (p. 88) Institute. Employment-PopulationSelf-SufficiencyVolunteering(p. (p. 56) 36) Ratio (p. 90) TotalViolent Welfare Crime Spending Rate (p. (p. 38) 58) l Unemployment Rate (p. 92) SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau, Subsidized Housing Current Population Survey, and U.S. Department of Health and Job OpeningsParticipation Rate (p. (p. 94) 60) Human Services. l Food Stamp Participation (p. 62) Job Hires Rate (p. 96) Money TaxedTANF AwayParticipation by (p. 64) l Federal Government (p. 98) Understand the Trends that Shape America TANF Work Start-UpParticipation Job Share (p. Rate 100) (p. 66) l
Family, education, economic freedom. These are just a few of theMajor factors Federal Regulations shaping (p. 102) opportunity in America. Decisions today—by policymakers and individuals alike—about issues from abortion to welfare to tax policy will determine the scope and stability of opportunityEconomic Freedom (p. in 104) the future. The 2016 Index of Culture and Opportunity, a publication of Heritage’s Institute for Family, Community, and Opportunity, tracks national data on key indicators and pairs the data with expert commentary from researchers at think tanks, academics, and journalists. Their insights shed light on the factors that are helping advance—or hindering—opportunity in America. See inside for: • 31 charts on social and economic indicators of opportunity in America, compiled from leading national data sources. • Essays by author and philosopher Michael Novak, Gov. Sam Brownback of Kansas, and others. • Brief commentary on each indicator from 31 expert contributors including: Mollie Hemingway (The Federalist); Ken Blackwell (Family Research Council); Tarren Bragdon (Foundation for Government Accountability); Jay Richards (Catholic University of America); Mary Mayhew (Commissioner, Maine Department of Health and Human Services); Nina Rees (National Alliance for Public Charter Schools); Sabrina Schaeffer (Independent Women’s Forum), and Alejandro Chafuen (Atlas Network). • Preface by Jim DeMint, President of The Heritage Foundation. The Index of Culture and Opportunity is a tool for policymakers and citizens seeking to ensure opportunity for the next generation. Explore and share this report online at Index.Heritage.org/Culture
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