RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in LESOTHO Research Highlights – Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in Lesotho

Funded by ‘Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Programme’ (ASAP) Phase 2. International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)

Produced by the University of Cape Town

Undertaken in support of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) by: African Climate & Development Initiative (www.acdi.uct.ac.za) Climate System Analysis Group (www.csag.uct.ac.za) Environmental Policy Research Unit (www.epru.uct.ac.za)

Recommended citation: Hunter. R., Crespo. O., Coldrey, K, Cronin, K, New, M. 2020. Research Highlights – Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in Lesotho. University of Cape Town, South Africa, undertaken in support of Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Programme’ (ASAP) Phase 2. International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), Rome.

The content and presentation of material in this report is the sole responsibility of the Authors and does not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Fund for Agricultural Development of the United Nations. The project team gratefully acknowledges the support of IFAD towards this research and in particular the IFAD country office and project staff. The project team thanks the various stakeholders and contributors who have shared their knowledge and time during this study. CONTENTS

Background and context ...... 1

Summary results ...... 2

Method and Approach ...... 3

Impacts ...... 3

Figure 1. Demonstration example of the distribution of crop suitability index. generated using EcoCrop . . . .4

Adaptive Capacity ...... 5

Table 1. Ranked Adaptive Capacity (AC) indicator scores for all regions of Lesotho ...... 5

Climate projections ...... 6

Projected changes to Temperature in Lesotho by 2050 ...... 6

Table 2. Projected influence of climate change on mean monthly temperature (°C) in Lesotho at Historical and Mid-Century periods, and monthly anomalies between the two time periods ...... 6

Climate – projected changes to rainfall in Lesotho by 2050 ...... 7

Table 3. Projected influence of climate change on mean monthly precipitation (mm/month) in Lesotho at Historical and Mid-Century periods, and monthly anomalies between the two time periods ...... 7

Climate change and its effect on crops: BEANS ...... 8

Climate change and its effect on crops: MAIZE ...... 10

Climate change and its effect on crops: PEAS ...... 12

Climate change and its effect on crops: SORGHUM ...... 14

Climate change and its effect on crops: WHEAT ...... 16

Summary of findings, recommendations, adaptation strategies and climate-resilient alternatives for smallholder farmers ...... 18

Appendix tables ...... 19 RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE CROP SUITABILITY IN LESOTHO BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT

The Adaptation for Smallholder risks and economic impacts stands of fruit trees, kitchen-scale Agriculture Programme (ASAP) is related to climate change, as well gardens and ‘keyhole’ planters for a flagship programme within the as potential adaptation options production of diverse vegetable International Fund for Agricultural and opportunities to increase species, and grazed production of Development’s (IFAD’s) portfolio climate resilience. The following cattle and small ruminant livestock. of activities aimed at channelling report provides a brief summary climate and environmental finance of highlighted results for Lesotho, to smallholder farmers, and which including: i) projected changes allows IFAD country programmes to temperature and precipitation to design projects which integrate as a result of climate change; and considerations of the impacts of ii) impacts of climate change on climate change on smallholder the future suitability of several farmers. To support the integration major crops and resulting impacts of climate information and improved on production across each of the knowledge of climate related risks country’s ten Districts. to the smallholder agriculture sector, IFAD commissioned a AGRICULTURE IN Climate Risk Analysis to assess the potential impacts of climate change LESOTHO on several crops and commodities Lesotho’s agricultural production in Lesotho. is characterised by relatively low The full Climate Risk Analysis report productivity of a small selection of (accessible via the IFAD Country staple crops. Rainfed agriculture, page1) provides an analysis of inter practiced by smallholder farmers, alia i) the current and future climate accounts for the vast majority characteristics of Lesotho; ii) the of the planted area. In addition potential change in the suitability to rainfed production of staple of various crops under projected crops, there are complex mixed climate changes; and iii) potential farming practices that include small

1 https://www.ifad.org/en/web/operations/country/id/lesotho

CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE CROP SUITABILITY IN LESOTHO 1 SUMMARY RESULTS

The likely effects of climate change assessed. The annual production of district are a function of both the are not fully consistent between certain climate-sensitive crops such impact of climate change on crop each of Lesotho’s ten Districts as beans, maize and sorghum is production, as well as the adaptive or the crops assessed, however, expected to be negatively impacted capacities of each community to several general observations can by increased temperatures and manage and respond to climate be made. For example, all districts reduced or delayed rainfall, thereby risks. This study found that the in the study area are predicted to causing a reduction in the extent districts of Leribe, Butha-Buthe and experience increasing temperatures of suitable production areas as Berea were characterised by the throughout the year, indicated well as reducing the productivity highest adaptive capacity scores (i.e. by increased average monthly of remaining areas. Certain crops the latter three districts have the greatest capacity to respond and ‘Mean Temperature’ as well as such as wheat, and to some degree adapt to climate change impacts), average ‘Minimum Temperature’. sorghum and sweetpeas, are while the districts of Qacha’s Nek, Furthermore, all districts are comparatively less affected by the Thaba-Tseka and Mokhotlong were predicted to experience an overall predicted climate changes and may likely to have the lowest adaptive decrease in the annual, seasonal and even benefit from minor increases capacities. monthly precipitation between the in production in certain districts – present day and the ‘Mid-Century’ the latter crops may be appropriate It is important to note that the future (defined by the period 2040– alternatives to be promoted in areas following analyses are based on 2069). Average monthly rainfall is where the production of other crops consideration of a narrow range predicted to decrease in all districts is expected to become marginal. of modelled variables and the for the months of September, resultant effects on crop suitability. Despite these common trends, October and November, which are Consequently, this study cannot considered to be the start of the there are also several district- account for local-level factors such rainy season. These results may be specific effects on climate variables as differences in performance, indicative of a delay in the onset and resultant crop suitability that climatic suitability and yield of the traditional rainy seasons, will necessitate the development potential between local land races or alternatively a decrease in the of tailored local-level adaptation or improved cultivars. In addition, effective duration of the rainy plans and strategies for agricultural the study cannot consider or predict season. Overall, the predicted trend development. Several districts in the effect of different cultivation is one of decreased annual rainfall, the northeast, including Leribe, methods and technologies that may where average annual rainfall across Butha-Buthe and Thaba-Tseka, may be practiced within the study area. Lesotho is predicted to decrease benefit from increased suitability in Finally, in terms of predicting the from 708 mm to 658 mm (i.e. a areas which are currently considered likely effects of climate change and decrease of 50 mm or 7%). marginal. In comparison, the resultant risks to crop production, southern and southwestern areas of this study cannot account for The full study includes analyses Mafeteng, Mohale’s Hoek, Quthing indirect effects of climate change on of the predicted effect of climate and Qacha’s Nek are predicted to crop production, such as increased change on various crops, particularly experience negative impacts on vulnerability to pests and disease, cereals (maize, sorghum, wheat) virtually all crops – the latter areas soil degradation or flooding/ and legumes (common bean and are likely to require extensive waterlogging. However, the study sweet peas), in each of Lesotho’s support and capacity-building to does find that climate change is ten districts. The combined effects manage the impacts of climate likely to result in multiple negative of reduced precipitation during the change on agricultural production effects on smallholder farmers in the traditional growing seasons and and food security. study area, through disruption of increased temperatures will result familiar seasonal trends, increased in a complex matrix of positive The climate-related risks to water and heat stress and reduced and negative effects on the crops agricultural households in each growing season.

2 RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS METHOD AND APPROACH

The analyses presented in this of I, and inversely proportional to variables of Mean Monthly study are intended to provide AC. The product of the scores for Precipitation (i.e. the average an illustrative comparison of AC and I are used to calculate a precipitation for each month), the potential effects of future standardised score for V, thereby Monthly Mean Temperature and climate change on production of allowing comparisons between Monthly Minimum Temperature economically important crops, as each district and allowing the (Tmin). well as the differential impacts identification of those districts and Analyses of current and future of climate change on agricultural households which are likely to be crop suitability were generated households in each of Lesotho’s most vulnerable to climate change using the Food and Agriculture ten Districts. For each of the crops impacts on each crop. Organisation’s EcoCrop Suitability considered in this study (beans, model4 combined with the most maize, sorghum, peas and wheat) IMPACTS recent statistics available for the relative Climate Change annual crop production and Vulnerability (V) of crop production The Impacts (I) of climate change on demographics. The EcoCrop model is considered at the district level crops were estimated by projecting estimates the suitability of a given and aims to identify those districts the likely future changes to Lesotho’s crop to the defined environmental which are likely to be most or climate, and then analysing the effects of those projected climate conditions based on the known least vulnerable to climate change changes on economically important preferences of each crop such as: i) impacts on the given crop. crops. Firstly, the potential future minimum, optimum and maximum The relative vulnerabilities of changes to Lesotho’s climate were temperature; ii) minimum, optimum each district can be expressed as calculated computed through and maximum monthly rainfall; a Vulnerability Index (VI) score, analysis of 29 General Circulation and iii) minimum and maximum derived by comparison of the Models (GCMs) downloaded from growing period. Therefore, EcoCrop relative scale of: the AgMERRA dataset2, based on defines the area of suitability for a the methods described by Ramirez- given crop based on whether there • Impacts (I) of climate change Villegas et al (2013)3. Future climate are adequate climatic conditions on crop production (estimated changes were computed assuming (temperature and precipitation) through analysis of climate the scenario of ‘RCP 8.5’ (where within the growing season and models and resulting changes to ‘RCP 8.5’ refers to one of four calculates the climatic suitability of crop suitability); and hypothetical scenarios for future the resulting interaction between global greenhouse gas emissions • the Adaptive Capacity (AC) rainfall and temperature. Readers of agricultural households proposed by the Intergovernmental are referred to the full project to respond and adapt to the Panel on Climate Change). This report and the work of Ramirez- analysis was used to generate impacts of climate change Villegas et al (2013) for detailed predictions of the effect of climate (derived through statistical description of methodology. change across Lesotho, comparing indicators of socio-economic, the historical baseline (the average A suitability index score, ranging developmental and agronomic climate for the period 1980–2010) from 0 – 1, indicates the relative context); to the Mid-Century future (2050, suitability of a given area for each in each of Lesotho’s ten Districts. the average climate for the period of the crops assessed (where a Vulnerability is considered to be 2040–2069). In particular, the suitability score of 0 is considered proportional to the relative size analysis compares the climatic to be totally unsuitable, a score

2 https://data.giss.nasa.gov/impacts/agmipcf/agmerra/ 3 Ramirez-Villegas J, Jarvis A, Laderach P 2013 Empirical approaches for assessing impacts of climate change on agriculture: The EcoCrop model and a case study with grain sorghum. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 170(15):67-78 4 https://ecocrop.fao.org/ecocrop/srv/en/home

CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE CROP SUITABILITY IN LESOTHO 3 of 1 is considered excellent, with a of crop suitability can be used to in each District, derived from continuous spectrum of marginal, estimate the potential changes to national agricultural production moderate and good suitability types the size and relative productivity statistics 6. in between). In this study, analyses of crop-suitable areas. In addition, The potential impacts of climate of the distribution of suitable this approach allows for the change on each crop can be areas for a given crop allows for identification of specific areas quantified in several ways, for the estimation of the total suitable which are likely to undergo positive example, in terms of changes production area, as well as the or negative changes (anomalies) as to “production per capita”, average suitability index score, a result of climate change, and may “production per household” within each of Lesotho’s ten Districts. be used to inform decision-making and “production per District”. It The EcoCrop approach also allows such as identification of climate- should be emphasised that no for map-based visualisations of crop vulnerable areas and value chains further calibration or validation of suitability zones across the country. to be prioritised for additional EcoCrop analyses was carried out The use of colour-coded maps to support. The potential impacts of in support of this study and that depict the distribution of various climate change on each crop were results should be considered as categories of crop suitability index estimated based on: indicative guidelines only, to inform scores can be used to demonstrate the changes to total suitable area additional local-level decision- the distribution of crop-suitable (km2) and average suitability index making and further research. areas, as demonstrated in Figure 1. score between the historical baseline The comparison of maps of and ‘mid-century’ future5; and ‘Historical’ and ‘Future’ distribution estimated historical crop production

FIGURE 1 . DEMONSTRATION EXAMPLE OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF CROP SUITABILITY INDEX . GENERATED USING ECOCROP

Excellent

Very suitable Suitable

Marginal Very Marginal

Not suited

5 Total suitable area was calculated as the sum of all areas with a suitability index score higher than 0, and average suitability index score is calculated as the average score of all areas with a suitability index score higher than 0 6 Derived from the most recent national statistics available, Bureau of Statistics of Lesotho, National Agricultural Production Survey 2016-2017. BoS, 2018. http://www.bos.gov.ls/new%20folder/Copy%20of%20Agriculture/2016-2017_Agricultural_Production_Survey.pdf

4 RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS (% household heads that are a weighting of 50% towards the ADAPTIVE CAPACITY employed); final AC score, and the remaining Indicators for Adaptive Capacity 50% was contributed equally by • Adoption of improved (AC) – the relative ability of the remaining indicator categories. agricultural practices: (amount agricultural households to respond These are presented in Table 1. spent (Maloti/hectare) on and adapt to predicted climate fertiliser; amount spent on The AC scores generated indicate change impacts – were derived from that smallholder farmers in the the most recent statistics available purchase of hybrid seeds; % area districts of Leribe, Berea and Butha- at the sub-national level 7. In the that has received applications Buthe have the highest overall case of Lesotho, the indicators of pesticide; % of farmers who capacities to respond to climate used to estimate AC in each district have adopted irrigation; % change’s impacts (ranking 1st, included of farmers who have adopted conservation agriculture). 2nd and 3rd, respectively). The • Access to Education (% literacy districts of Qacha’s Nek, Thaba- rate); The national statistics collected to Tseka and Mokhotlong have the assess AC – which are summarised lowest overall AC scores (ranking • Access to financial services: in the Appendix (Table A.1) – were 8th, 9th and 10th, respectively) (% households with ability to used to calculate an average AC and therefore are anticipated to be access loans); score for each District. The indicator least able to respond or adapt to • Access to alternative category ‘Adoption of improved climate change-related impacts. (non-agricultural) income: agricultural practices’ was assigned

TABLE 1 . RANKED ADAPTIVE CAPACITY (AC) INDICATOR SCORES FOR ALL DISTRICTS OF LESOTHO Adaptive capacity Indicator category

Adoption of Access to Access to improved alternative agricultural Education Adaptive Adaptive agricultural practices income information capacity capacity score rank Contribution to index 50% 17% 17% 17%

Berea 39.4 15 93.5 7 38.9 2 Butha-Buthe 32.7 21 91.6 15 37.6 3 Leribe 55.2 22 94.7 16 49.7 1 Mafeteng 18.2 19 92.2 12 29.6 5 Maseru 24.4 21 92.5 11 32.9 4 Mohale's Hoek 16.7 13 87.4 8 26.4 6 Mokhotlong 1.1 10 81.4 8 17.1 10 Qacha's Nek 1.8 20 91.8 8 20.9 8 Quthing 7.7 13 87.9 20 24 7 Thaba-Tseka 1.2 28 79.1 13 20.6 9

7 Derived from the most recent national statistics available: Bureau of Statistics of Lesotho, National Agricultural Production Survey 2016-2017. BoS, 2018. http://www.bos.gov.ls/new%20folder/Copy%20of%20Agriculture/2016-2017_Agricultural_Production_Survey.pdf

CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE CROP SUITABILITY IN LESOTHO 5 CLIMATE PROJECTIONS PROJECTED CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE IN LESOTHO BY 2050

The predicted changes in Mean The overall effect of these increases In the case of temperate fruit crops Monthly Temperature (TMean) in temperature is likely to result in such as apples, pears, plums and during the period from ‘Historical’ complex impacts on the agricultural peaches, a possible additional effect to ‘Future 2050’ timepoints indicate sector, particularly when considered of the increase in temperature that climate change will result in combination with the predicted during the winter months may be to in consistent increases in Mean decreases in precipitation (see reduce the number of accumulated Temperature across spatial and next section). chilling hours which are required temporal dimensions in Lesotho. The large increases in temperature by certain pome and stone fruits A common prediction across each (1.9–2.3°C) in the months of October– for consistent and even budding of the country’s ten districts is that December will increase crop water of new vegetative shoots in the TMean will increase in all districts demand and evapotranspiration spring. While this latter effect is during the period from ‘Historical’ losses of water from agricultural uncertain, the predicted increase to ‘Future 2050’ timepoints soils, coinciding with the reduced in temperatures is likely to affect by at least 1.9°C. The hottest rainfall predicted for the same various fruit species and cultivars to months of October, November months. This effect is likely to differing degrees. and December are predicted to increase the risks of crop failure as Taken cumulatively over the entire increase by 1.9–2.3 °C, relative to a result of inadequate or erratic a Historical average of 14.4–17 °C. rainfall during the establishment growing season, the combination Similar increases of 1.9–2 °C are of rainfed crops. Furthermore, the of reduced rainfall and increased predicted for all other months of increased average temperatures temperature is likely to reduce the year, including the remaining are likely to include increased agricultural production, either as a months that support the rainfed frequency or severity of heat waves result of decreased yield or outright agricultural season (January-April) and unusually hot days, further crop failure, particularly in the case as well as the colder winter months contributing to evapotranspirative of heat- and drought-sensitive of April–August. losses of water and crop stress. crops such as maize and wheat.

PROJECTED INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MEAN MONTHLY TEMPERATURE (°C) IN LESOTHO AT HISTORICAL AND MID-CENTURY PERIODS, AND MONTHLY ANOMALIES BETWEEN THE TWO TIME PERIODS 8

MONTH Tmean (°C) J F M A M J J A S O N D Historical 18.2 17.7 16.1 13.2 10.0 7.3 7.4 9.5 12.7 14.4 15.5 17.0

Future 20.1 19.6 18.0 15.1 12.1 9.5 9.6 11.8 14.8 16.7 17.5 18.8

Anomaly 1 .9 1 .9 2 .0 1 .9 2 .2 2 .2 2 .2 2 .3 2 .1 2 .3 2 .0 1 .9

8 Historical temperature based on the average of the period 1980-2010, and projected Mid-Century temperature for the period 2040-2069. Anomalies are defined as the total change between Historical and Mid-Century projections

6 RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS CLIMATE – PROJECTED CHANGES TO RAINFALL IN LESOTHO BY 2050

The predicted changes in mean further reductions in the mid- support effective establishment monthly precipitation from the summer months at the peak of the of crops during the period which historical baseline to the mid- rainy season from December–March is traditionally associated with the century (2050) future indicate ranging from 4 to 6 mm/month. The start of the growing season. that climate change will result in overall effect of these reductions to These analyses indicate that climate complex changes in rainfall across monthly precipitation throughout change may delay the onset of Districts and months (see Table 3, the rainy season is to reduce the rainfall relative to the traditional below). District-level summaries total seasonal rainfall for the period agricultural calendar, in turn of predicted monthly changes in October–March by 5.5%, from 570 resulting in changes to the timing precipitation can be found in the mm/season to 540 mm/season. of various agricultural activities supplementary Appendix. An additional effect, which is likely such as field preparation and A common prediction across each to vary on an interannual basis as sowing of seed. The majority of the of the country’s 10 districts is that well as spatially within each season, rainfed agricultural growing season mean monthly precipitation and is the effective timing of the onset of is characterised by monthly rainfall total annual precipitation will be rainfall at the start of the growing deficits and is likely to result in reduced in all districts during the season. The average reduction in fundamental changes to local crop period from ‘baseline’ to ‘Future national rainfall predicted for the choices and agricultural practices by 2050’ timepoints. Total rainfall at months of October and November the year 2050. the onset of the rainy season in the is likely to vary between districts months of October and November and Lesotho’s agro-ecological is predicted to be reduced by zones but in some cases may 7 mm and 3 mm, respectively, with result in inadequate rainfall to

TABLE 3 . PROJECTED INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MEAN MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (MM/MONTH) IN LESOTHO AT HISTORICAL AND MID-CENTURY PERIODS, AND MONTHLY ANOMALIES BETWEEN THE TWO TIME PERIODS 9 .

MONTH MM/MONTH TOTAL J F M A M J J A S O N D

Historical 115.4 103.6 85.1 46.9 18.5 13.9 9.3 19.9 29.6 72.0 91.0 103.3 708.5

Future 109.1 99.8 78.7 43.7 17.0 11.6 7.7 14.7 23.3 65.3 88.4 99.1 658.4

Anomaly -6 .3 -3 .8 -6 .3 -3 .1 -1 .5 -2 .2 -1 .5 -5 .2 -6 .2 -6 .7 -2 .6 -4 .2 -50 .1

9 Historical precipitation based on the average of the period 1980-2010, and projected Mid-Century precipitation for the period 2040-2069. Anomalies are defined as the total change between Historical and Mid-Century projections. District-level summaries of predicted monthly changes in precipitation can be found in the supplementary Appendix).

CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE CROP SUITABILITY IN LESOTHO 7 CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS EFFECT ON BEANS

PRODUCTION OF BEANS IN LESOTHO10. BROAD CONTEXT PRODUCTION AREA ANNUAL PRODUCTION REGION TOTAL (HA) % NATIONAL TOTAL TOTAL (TONNES) % NATIONAL TOTAL Beans are widely grown as a staple Berea 2,801 10.3 788 11.9 subsistence crop across all of Lesotho’s Butha-Buthe 296 1.1 28 0.4 districts, with widespread areas of Leribe 5,790 21.2 1,757 26.4 marginal or moderate suitability. Mafeteng 5,339 19.6 830 12.5 Maseru 4,708 17.3 1,180 17.8 All districts are projected to Mohale’s Hoek 2,699 9.9 811 12.2 experience decreases to average Mokhotlong 1,368 5.0 517 7.8 suitability index scores due to climate Qacha’s Nek 1,893 6.9 389 5.9 Quthing 807 3.0 183 2.8 change, resulting in a decrease in Thaba Tseka 1,552 5.7 161 2.4 productivity. Examination of the Total 27,253 6,643 anomalies for October indicates that despite the decreases, several districts are expected to benefit from PROJECTED EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DISTRIBUTION OF increased suitable bean production SUITABILITY FOR BEANS IN LESOTHO areas, including Berea, Butha-Buthe, 1=highly suitable not suitable=0 Leribe, Maseru, Mokhotlong and Historical Areas of change Mid-Century Future Thaba-Tseka. However, it is likely that the future suitable areas for bean production will be characterised by relatively low suitability. Mafeteng and Mohale’s Hoek are likely to be the worst affected districts, where productivity is projected to decrease by 16-17%. HOUSEHOLD LEVEL IMPACTS

In terms of the potential change in ANNUAL PRODUCTION production per capita, it is predicted MAFETENG & BEREA MAFETENG BEREA MOHALE’S HOEK that households will experience a decrease in annual production ranging from 0.7% in Berea, up -0.7% -0.2kg to 16.9% in Mafeteng. In terms per household of the potential change in annual -16.9% -8.1kg household production, households least affected most affected per household are anticipated to experience a loss least affected most affected ranging from 0.2 kg per household in Berea up to 8.1 kg in Mafeteng and Mohale’s Hoek. The costs of reduced USD 0.10 to production of beans are estimated to USD 5.80 USD 19 per person range from USD 0.1 to 5.8 per person, per household or, up to USD 19 per household.11

Butha-Buthe, Leribe, Mokhotlong not be interpreted as a strong negative effects of climate change and Thaba-Tseka are predicted projection that annual production but may not necessarily be able to to experience positive impacts. will increase. Rather, it should be benefit fully from the predicted However, the predictions of increased interpreted that the districts are increase in suitability. suitable area in these districts should unlikely to be impacted severely by

10 Derived from the most recent national statistics available, Bureau of Statistics of Lesotho, National Agricultural Production Survey 2016-2017. BoS, 2018. http://www.bos.gov.ls/new%20folder/Copy%20of%20Agriculture/2016-2017_Agricultural_Production_Survey.pdf 11 Based on current market prices and annual crop production statistics DISTRICT AND NATIONAL-LEVEL IMPACTS

At the district level, the reduction In total, it is estimated that the loss Total loss in total annual production of beans of production of beans across all of annual ranges from 5 tonnes per annum in districts is equivalent to 417 tonnes 417 production tonnes Berea up to 140 tonnes per annum per annum. At a national scale, the in Mafeteng. It is anticipated that total annual cost of climate-related the greatest costs for purchase impacts on beans is estimated to be of replacement food will be for USD 962,000 per year. Total annual cost Mafeteng (USD 308,000), Mohale’s Hoek (USD 306,000) and Maseru USD 962 000 (USD 187,000). CLIMATE VULNERABLE DISTRICTS AND HOUSEHOLDS

At the household level, the two MOST VULNERABLE REGIONS, BASED ON CHANGES TO: districts which will experience the most severe negative impacts TOTAL HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION TOTAL DISTRICT PRODUCTION on per capita production are Mafeteng (1) and Mohale’s Hoek (2). At the district level, the two Districts that will experience the most severe negative impacts on total production are Mohale’s Hoek 1. 2. (1), and Mafeteng (2). 2. 1. Most vulnerable

Suitability increase Least vulnerable KEY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Moderate decrease in area and productivity predicted for the southern and western districts.

Minor increases in suitable area predicted to occur in the mountainous zones of NE northeast districts. It is likely these new areas will be characterised by low suitability.

Mafeteng, Mohale’s Hoek and Qacha’s Nek are likely to be particularly vulnerable to decreases in production of beans, both from the perspective of household production, and from the perspective of total district production.

The total replacement costs incurred by households to replace lost bean production is $ estimated to be up to USD 962,000 per year12.

Despite the predicted negative changes to production, it is likely that beans will be comparatively more resilient than crops such as maize. Beans, and other leguminous crops, will therefore remain a useful option for climate-resilient farming systems.

12 Based on current market prices and annual crop production statistics CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS EFFECT ON MAIZE

PRODUCTION OF MAIZE IN LESOTHO13. PRODUCTION AREA ANNUAL PRODUCTION BROAD CONTEXT REGION TOTAL (HA) % NATIONAL TOTAL TOTAL (TONNES) % NATIONAL TOTAL Maize is widely grown as a staple Berea 22,172 12.7 33,398 19.3 subsistence crop across all of Butha-Buthe 9,461 5.4 7,838 4.5 Lesotho’s districts, with limited areas Leribe 33,629 19.3 39,454 22.8 Mafeteng 21,095 12.1 9,606 5.6 of marginal or moderate suitability. Maseru 33,624 19.3 37,738 21.9 Mohale’s Hoek 15,383 8.8 18,819 10.9 Climate change will likely result in Mokhotlong 9,879 5.7 7,730 4.5 a reduction in the spatial extent Qacha’s Nek 10,125 5.8 4,108 2.4 of suitable production areas for Quthing 5,315 3.0 4,003 2.3 maize, as well as a reduction in Thaba Tseka 13,818 7.9 9,972 5.8 the suitability index scores of the Total 174,500 172,666 remaining ‘suitable’ production PROJECTED EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DISTRIBUTION OF areas for maize. All districts are SUITABILITY FOR MAIZE IN LESOTHO predicted to undergo a decline 1=highly suitable not suitable=0 in average suitability index score, Historical Areas of change Mid-Century Future resulting in reduced productivity ranging from 10% (Berea, Butha- Buthe, Leribe, Mafeteng and Maseru) up 35% (Thaba-Tseka). Examination of the anomalies for October indicates that Mohale’s Hoek and Quthing are likely to experience a complete loss of suitable maize production areas, while Leribe and Butha-Buthe production areas. However, it is likely that these future maize production may experience minor increases in areas will be characterised by relatively low suitability. HOUSEHOLD- AND NATIONAL- LEVEL IMPACTS

In terms of the potential change in production per capita, it is predicted ANNUAL PRODUCTION that households will experience a BEREA DISTRICT MAFETENG BEREA DISTRICT MAFETENG decrease in annual maize production ranging from 10% in Berea district -10% -108kg up to 55% in Mafeteng. per capita per household In terms of the potential change -55% in annual household production, -306kg per capita per household households are anticipated to least affected most affected experience a loss ranging from 108 kg per household per annum in least affected most affected Berea up to 306 kg in Mafeteng. The costs of reduced production of maize per household USD 18 TO 199 per person are estimated to range from USD 18 USD 656 to 199 per person, or, up to USD 656 suitable area in these districts should unlikely to be impacted severely by per household.14 not be interpreted as a strong negative effects of climate change Leribe and Butha-Buthe are predicted prediction that annual production but may not necessarily be able to to experience positive impacts. will increase. Rather, it should be benefit fully from the predicted However, the predictions of increased interpreted that the districts are increase in suitability.

13 Derived from the most recent national statistics available, Bureau of Statistics of Lesotho, National Agricultural Production Survey 2016-2017. BoS, 2018. http://www.bos. gov.ls/new%20folder/Copy%20of%20Agriculture/2016-2017_Agricultural_Production_Survey.pdf 14 Based on current market prices and annual crop production statistics DISTRICT AND NATIONAL-LEVEL IMPACTS

At the district level, the reduction In total, it is estimated that the Total loss in total annual production of loss of production of maize across of annual 53 000 maize ranges from 982 tonnes per all districts is equivalent to 53,000 production tonnes annum (Qacha’s Nek) up to 15,000 tonnes per annum. At a national tonnes (Maseru). It is anticipated scale, the total annual cost of that the greatest costs for purchase climate-related impacts on maize of replacement food will be for is estimated to be USD 29.6 million Total annual cost Mohale’s Hoek (USD 10.5 million), per year. Maseru (USD 8.45 million) and USD 29.6 million Mafeteng (USD 2.96 million). CLIMATE VULNERABLE DISTRICTS AND HOUSEHOLDS

At the household level, the two districts which will experience the MOST VULNERABLE REGIONS, BASED ON CHANGES TO: most severe negative impacts on TOTAL HOUSEHOLD TOTAL DISTRICT per capita production are Quthing PRODUCTION PRODUCTION (1) and Mohale’s Hoek (2). At the district level, the two Districts that will experience the most severe negative impacts on total production are Mohale’s Hoek (1) and Quthing (2). Most vulnerable 2. 1. 1. 2. Least vulnerable Suitability increase KEY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Lesotho will likely experience decreased production of maize as a result of declines in total production area and productivity.

Suitability for maize production is likely to remain marginal.

Mohale’s Hoek and Quthing are particularly vulnerable to changes in production, but production of maize should be considered highly vulnerable in all districts, with the possible exceptions of Butha-Buthe and Leribe.

The total replacement cost for the predicted loss in production of maize is estimated to $ be USD 29.6 million per year.

Recommended actions: promote access to drought-resilient and fast-maturing varieties of maize; promote staggered planting times at the onset of the rainy season; and promote the diversification of staple crops. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS EFFECT ON PEAS

PRODUCTION OF BEANS IN LESOTHO15. BROAD CONTEXT PRODUCTION AREA ANNUAL PRODUCTION REGION TOTAL (HA) % NATIONAL TOTAL TOTAL (TONNES) % NATIONAL TOTAL Peas are grown as a subsistence crop Berea 16 0.9 0 0.0 across most of Lesotho’s districts, Butha-Buthe 42 2.4 0 0.0 with widespread areas of marginal Leribe 215 12.2 177 29.4 or moderate suitability. Mafeteng 0 0.0 0 0.0 Maseru 441 25.1 30 5.0 Climate change will likely result in a Mohale’s 79 4.5 97 16.1 mix of negative and positive changes Hoek Mokhotlong 688 39.2 231 38.4 to suitability for cultivation of peas Qacha’s Nek 22 1.3 5 0.9 across Lesotho’s districts. With the Quthing 38 2.2 16 2.7 exception of Mafeteng, all districts Thaba Tseka 216 12.3 45 7.5 are projected to experience decreases Total 1,757 602 to average suitability index scores, resulting in a decrease in productivity PROJECTED EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DISTRIBUTION OF ranging from 1% in Maseru to 6.3% in SUITABILITY FOR BEANS IN LESOTHO

Berea. Examination of the anomalies 1=highly suitable not suitable=0 for October indicates that despite Historical Areas of change Mid-Century Future the decrease in average suitability index score, several districts are expected to benefit from increased suitable production areas, including Butha-Buthe and Mokhotlong. However, in these distircts, it is likely that the future suitable areas for pea production will be characterised by relatively low suitability. HOUSEHOLD LEVEL IMPACTS

In terms of the potential change in ANNUAL PRODUCTION production per capita, it is predicted THABA TSEKA QUTHING THABA TSEKA MOHALE’S HOEK that households will experience a decrease in annual production ranging from 3.6% in Thaba Tseka -3.6% -0.1kg per household district up to 31.4% in Quthing. -1.5kg -31.4% per household In terms of the potential change in annual household production, least affected most affected least affected most affected households are anticipated to experience a loss ranging from 0.1 USD 0.30 per person USD 0.80 per household kg per household in Thaba-Tseka up to 1.5 kg in Mohale’s Hoek. are so small as to be considered that annual production of peas will The costs of reduced production of negligible. Mokhotlong is the only increase as a result of climate change. peas are estimated to range from district which is predicted to benefit Rather, it should be interpreted that negligible in some districts, up to USD from an increase in average suitability Mokhotlong is unlikely to be impacted 0.3 per capita, or up to USD 0.8 per score and total suitable area. However, severely by negative effects of climate household.16 the predicted increase in suitable change, but may not necessarily In Berea and Qacha’s Nek, the impacts area in Mokhotlong should not be be able to benefit fully from the on total production per household interpreted as a strong prediction predicted increase in suitability.

15 Derived from the most recent national statistics available, Bureau of Statistics of Lesotho, National Agricultural Production Survey 2016-2017. BoS, 2018. http://www.bos.gov.ls/new%20folder/Copy%20of%20Agriculture/2016-2017_Agricultural_Production_Survey.pdf 16 Based on current market prices and annual crop production statistics DISTRICT AND NATIONAL-LEVEL IMPACTS

At the district level, the reduction In total, it is estimated that the loss Total loss in total annual production of peas of production of peas across all of annual ranges from 2 tonnes per annum districts is equivalent to 46 tonnes 46 production tonnes (Thaba-Tseka) up to 24 tonnes per annum. At a national scale, the (Mohale’s Hoek). It is anticipated that total annual cost of climate-related the greatest costs for purchase of impacts on peas is estimated to be replacement food will be for Mohale’s USD 101,000 per year. Total annual cost Hoek (USD 55,000), Leribe (USD 19,000) and Maseru (USD 11,000). USD 101 000 CLIMATE VULNERABLE DISTRICTS AND HOUSEHOLDS

At the household level, the two MOST VULNERABLE REGIONS, BASED ON CHANGES TO: districts which will experience the most severe negative impacts on TOTAL HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION TOTAL DISTRICT PRODUCTION per capita production are Quthing (1) and Mohale’s Hoek (2). At the district level, the two Districts that will experience the most severe negative impacts on total production are Mohale’s Hoek (1) and Quthing (2). Most vulnerable 2. 1. Least vulnerable 1. 2. Suitability increase

Omitted KEY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Lesotho will likely experience minor to moderate decreases in production of peas as a result of climate change-related declines in total production area and productivity.

Most of the country will remain marginally suitable and relatively unproductive in the future.

Mohale’s Hoek, Quthing, Maseru and Leribe are particularly vulnerable to changes in production of peas.

The total replacement cost for the predicted loss in production of peas is estimated to be $ USD 100,000 per year.

Despite these negative trends, the Butha-Buthe and Mokhotlong may benefit from minor increases in suitable area and production of peas.

Recommended actions: promote as a climate-resilient legume; research, develop and promote locally-adapted varieties; and investigate best-suited areas to be targeted for increased pea production. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS EFFECT ON SORGHUM

PRODUCTION OF SORGHUM IN LESOTHO17. BROAD CONTEXT PRODUCTION AREA ANNUAL PRODUCTION REGION TOTAL (HA) % NATIONAL TOTAL TOTAL (TONNES) % NATIONAL TOTAL Sorghum is grown as a subsistence Berea 5,423 11.6 6,516 19.2 crop across all of Lesotho’s districts, Butha-Buthe 2,407 5.2 948 2.8 with widespread areas of low or Leribe 6,910 14.8 5,981 17.7 marginal suitability. Mafeteng 5,742 12.3 2,147 6.3 Maseru 8,616 18.5 7,063 20.9 Climate change will likely result in a Mohale’s Hoek 5,777 12.4 3,986 11.8 minor decrease in the spatial extent of Mokhotlong 665 1.4 411 1.2 suitable production areas for sorghum. Qacha’s Nek 1,922 4.1 696 2.1 Quthing 2,673 5.7 2,834 8.4 Within the remaining suitable Thaba Tseka 6,455 13.9 3,275 9.7 production areas, climate change will Total 46,591 33,858 result in a complex matrix of increases as well as decreases in the suitability PROJECTED EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DISTRIBUTION OF index scores. Examination of the SUITABILITY FOR SORGHUM IN LESOTHO anomalies for the month of October 1=highly suitable not suitable=0 indicates that most districts are Historical Areas of change Mid-Century Future predicted to experience a decrease in average suitability score and resultant decreases in productivity, ranging from -5% (Maseru and Mohale’s Hoek) to -13% (Leribe and Quthing). However, Mafeteng, Qacha’s Nek and Thaba-Tseka are predicted to benefit from increased average suitability. Most districts are expected to undergo and Thaba-Tseka may experience an to continue to be characterised by low a decrease in total suitable area, while expansion in suitable area. Despite average suitability, and thus will likely Butha-Butha, Leribe, Mohkotlong these increases, all districts are likely have relatively low productivity. HOUSEHOLD LEVEL IMPACTS

In terms of potential change ANNUAL PRODUCTION production per capita, it is predicted BEREA MAFETENG QACHA’S NEK MOHALE’S HOEK that households will experience a decrease in annual production -18.3kg ranging from 9% per capita in Berea -9% -64% per capita per capita per household up to 64% in Mafeteng. In terms of the potential change in annual least affected most affected -117kg household production, households per household are anticipated to experience a loss least affected most affected ranging from 18.3 kg per household USD 7.60 to USD 45 in Qacha’s Nek up to 117 kg per USD 149 per household per person household per annum in Mohale’s Hoek. The costs of reduced production benefit from positive changes to of climate change. Rather, it should of sorghum are estimated to range suitability for sorghum production. be interpreted that they are unlikely from USD 7.6 to USD 45 per person, However, the predicted increase to be impacted severely by negative or, up to USD 149 per household.18 in suitable area in these districts effects of climate change, but may Despite these negative trends, it is should not be interpreted as a strong not necessarily be able to benefit predicted that Butha-Buthe, Leribe, prediction that annual production fully from the predicted increase in Mokhotlong and Thaba-Tseka may of sorghum will increase as a result suitability.

17 Derived from the most recent national statistics available, Bureau of Statistics of Lesotho, National Agricultural Production Survey 2016-2017. BoS, 2018. http://www.bos.gov.ls/new%20folder/Copy%20of%20Agriculture/2016-2017_Agricultural_Production_Survey.pdf 18 Based on current market prices and annual crop production statistics DISTRICT AND NATIONAL-LEVEL IMPACTS

At the district level, the reduction in In total, it is estimated that the loss Total loss total annual production of sorghum of production of sorghum across all of annual ranges from 145 tonnes per annum in districts is equivalent to 7,000 tonnes 7 000 production tonnes Quthing up to 2,350 tonnes in Maseru. per annum. At a national scale, the It is anticipated that the greatest costs total annual cost of climate-related for purchase of replacement food impacts on sorghum is estimated to will be Maseru (USD 2.58 million), be USD 8.6 million per year. Total annual cost Mohale’s Hoek (USD 2.4 million) and Mafeteng (USD 1.6 million). USD 8.6 million CLIMATE VULNERABLE DISTRICTS AND HOUSEHOLDS

At the household level, the two MOST VULNERABLE REGIONS, BASED ON CHANGES TO: districts which will experience the most severe negative impacts TOTAL HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION TOTAL DISTRICT PRODUCTION on per capita production are Mafeteng (1) and Mohale’s Hoek (2). At the district level, the two Districts that will experience the most severe negative impacts on total production are Mohale’s Hoek 1. 2. (1) and Mafeteng (2). Most vulnerable 2. 1.

Suitability increase Least vulnerable KEY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Lesotho will likely experience minor to moderate decreases in production of sorghum as a result of climate change-related declines in total production area and productivity.

Most of the country will remain marginally suitable and relatively unproductive for sorghum in the future.

Mafeteng, Mohale’s Hoek, Quthing and Maseru are particularly vulnerable to changes in production of sorghum.

The total replacement cost for the predicted loss in production of sorghum is estimated to be $ USD 8.6 million per year.

Despite these negative trends, the Butha-Buthe, Leribe, Mokhotlong and Thaba-Tseka may enjoy the benefit of minor increases to suitable area and production of sorghum.

Despite low production potential, sorghum is likely to be better adapted to Lesotho’s climate conditions than maize.

Recommended actions: research and development required to identify the most locally appropriate cultivars to be promoted as a climate-resilient cereal alternative to maize; and promote a change in dietary preferences, cooking recipes and farmers’ perceptions of the crop. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS EFFECT ON WHEAT

PRODUCTION OF BEANS IN LESOTHO19. BROAD CONTEXT PRODUCTION AREA ANNUAL PRODUCTION REGION TOTAL (HA) % NATIONAL TOTAL TOTAL (TONNES) % NATIONAL TOTAL Wheat is grown as a subsistence crop Berea 82 1.0 41 0.5 across most of Lesotho’s districts, Butha-Buthe 174 2.0 124 1.4 with limited areas of marginal or Leribe 555 6.5 453 5.1 moderate suitability. Mafeteng 0 0.0 0 0.0 Maseru 1,090 12.8 572 6.5 Climate change may result in Mohale’s Hoek 793 9.3 1,464 16.5 decreases in average suitability across Mokhotlong 1,661 19.5 3,742 42.3 most of Lesotho’s districts, equivalent Qacha’s Nek 1,014 11.9 470 5.3 to decreases in productivity ranging Quthing 897 10.5 848 9.6 from 1.6% in Thaba-Tseka up to Thaba Tseka 2,237 26.3 1,136 12.8 11.9% in Maseru. Butha-Buthe and Total 8,503 8,851 Mafeteng are predicted to remain unchanged in terms of suitability PROJECTED EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DISTRIBUTION OF and total suitable production area. SUITABILITY FOR BEANS IN LESOTHO All other districts are expected to 1=highly suitable not suitable=0 benefit from increased suitable Historical Areas of change Mid-Century Future production areas. However, much of the future suitable area is likely to be characterised by relatively low production potential and small yields.

HOUSEHOLD LEVEL IMPACTS

Maseru is the only district predicted to experience negative impacts on ANNUAL PRODUCTION production of wheat. The decreases MASERU MASERU predicted are equivalent to a loss of 3.9% of production per capita, -3.9% -0.4kg or a loss to household production per capita per household of 0.4 kg per household per annum. The costs of reduced production of wheat in Maseru are estimated to be USD 0.1 per person, or USD 0.3 per household.20 USD 0.10 USD 0.30 per person per household

19 Derived from the most recent national statistics available, Bureau of Statistics of Lesotho, National Agricultural Production Survey 2016-2017. BoS, 2018. http://www.bos.gov.ls/new%20folder/Copy%20of%20Agriculture/2016-2017_Agricultural_Production_Survey.pdf 20 Based on current market prices and annual crop production statistics

16 RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS DISTRICT AND NATIONAL-LEVEL IMPACTS

At the district level, this decrease be attributed to an increase in Total loss in production is equivalent to total suitable area. However, the of annual 22 tonnes per annum, and the results should not be interpreted 22 000 production tonnes total annual cost of replacing this as a strong prediction that annual loss in production is estimated to production of wheat will increase be approximately USD 16,400. as a result of climate change in these districts. Rather, it is likely With the exception of Butha- Total annual cost that the impacts of climate change Buthe and Mafeteng, which are on wheat production will be mild predicted to remain unchanged in USD 16 400 or negligible across most of the terms of production, the remaining country. districts are expected experience minor positive effects, which may

MOST VULNERABLE REGIONS, BASED ON CHANGES TO:

TOTAL HOUSEHOLD/DISTRICT PRODUCTION

Most vulnerable

Least vulnerable

Suitability increase

No suitability change

KEY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Most of Lesotho’s districts are unlikely to experience negative effects of climate change on wheat production.

Maseru is the only district that is predicted to experience decreased production potential.

The total replacement cost for the predicted loss in production is estimated to $ be USD 16,400 per year.

While moderate increases in production area of rainfed wheat may occur as a result of climate change, in practice, the majority of winter wheat production is likely to be cultivated with supplementary irrigation.

Recommended actions: identify and increase availability of locally-adapted cultivars, support farmers to plant in areas with access to irrigation, support development of value chain and access to processing facilities.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE CROP SUITABILITY IN LESOTHO 17 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, RECOMMENDATIONS, ADAPTATION STRATEGIES AND CLIMATE-RESILIENT ALTERNATIVES FOR SMALLHOLDER FARMERS

Several important staple crops – to adapt smallholder agriculture remains relatively marginal. Efforts notably beans, maize and sorghum to climate change in Lesotho. The to promote the increased adoption – are predicted to experience crop is already widely grown and of sorghum will need to consider significant decreases in production. eaten, can be incorporated into technical implications such as the In the case of maize, the results diverse inter-cropping and crop need to identify locally-adapted strongly support the case for rotation strategies with other staple cultivars, as well as issues related to development and promotion of fast- crops, and contributes positively to local demand, dietary preferences growing, early-maturing varieties soil fertility. The potential risk of and interest in the crop. to be disseminated as widely as negative impacts of climate change Despite the potential negative possible. In addition, farmers will on beans can partly be offset impacts predicted for several of benefit from capacity-building and by promoting the adoption of a Lesotho’s staple crops, results also training on strategies to respond to diversity of bean cultivars as well as indicate that certain crops may variable and unpredictable onset of trials of additional legume species – benefit from positive impacts. In rainfall. This could include measures for example, cowpeas – which may addition to sorghum and sweetpeas, such as staggered planting times to be comparably more resilient to the which may experience negative and minimise risk of crop failure, use of changing climate and be used to positive changes between districts, climate information to guide field supplement livestock feed as well as wheat is also predicted to experience preparation and planting, and field household needs. minor positive impacts. Although techniques such as conservation In the case of sorghum, climate wheat is characterised by relatively agriculture to improve soil water- change may result in a mix of positive marginal or moderate suitability holding capacity. In addition, the and negative impacts. Although it in both the current and future risk of reduced production of maize is likely that sorghum production scenarios, results indicate that several of all maize varieties can be partly in the foothill and lowland zones districts may benefit from increased offset by continued promotion may experience minor negative production potential – only Maseru of crop diversification, including impacts, it is also possible that these is predicted to experience negative intercropping and multi-crop losses may be partly offset by the impacts. However, the opportunities approaches that include diverse possibility of increased production represented by increased potential legumes and alternative cereals such potential in the mountain zones of for wheat production will only be as sorghum and millet. Butha-Buthe, Leribe, Mokhotlong realised if accompanied by efforts In the case of beans, the results and Thaba-Tseka may enjoy the to strengthen the market linkages indicate a moderate or severe benefit of minor increases to suitable and value chains between farmers, reduction of production between the area and production of sorghum. millers/processors and buyers. current baseline period and the mid- These results suggest that sorghum The latter crops may provide an century future. Despite this predicted is likely to be better adapted to opportunity for Lesotho’s farmers negative trend, nevertheless Lesotho’s current and future climate to increase their income and food beans and other leguminous crops conditions in comparison with security and reduce the national cost are still expected to be a useful maize, nevertheless the overall and volume of food imports. component of future strategies production potential for this crop

18 RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS APPENDIX TABLES

CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE CROP SUITABILITY IN LESOTHO 19 0 0.3 5.9 2.0 0.0 28.0 13.0 79.1 Tseka Thaba- 0 1.0 0.0 24.3 43.1 13.0 20.0 87.9 Quthing 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 13.4 20.0 91.8 Nek Qacha's 21 0 0.0 0.9 0.0 5.0 8.0 10.0 81.4 Mokhotlong 0.0 0.0 8.0 373 50.3 95.7 13.0 87.4 Hoek Mohale's 0.0 4.0 21.0 11.0 92.5 108.8 105.9 5 120 Maseru 0.0 3.0 30.9 99.2 19.0 12.0 92.2 3 151 Mafeteng 2.0 5.0 22.0 16.0 94.7 218.8 144.9 48 167 Leribe 0.0 6.0 21.0 15.0 91.6 207.3 107.4 2 237 Buthe Butha- 5.0 5.0 7.0 96.7 15.0 93.5 317.8 6 116 Berea

Adaptive capacity indicators Amount spent on inorganic fertilizer (Maloti per hectare), 2016-17 agricultural year Total Amount Spent on hybrid Total seeds (Maloti per hectare), 2016-17 agricultural year Total area of applied pesticides Total (hectares), 2016-17 agricultural year % farmers who have adopted irrigation % farmers who have adopted conservation farming % households with employment % households with ability to receive loans % literacy rate (15-24) Survey 2016-2017. BoS, 2018. Derived from the most recent national statistics available, Bureau of Statistics Lesotho, National Agricultural Production Survey 2016-2017. BoS, 2018. http://www.bos.gov.ls/new%20folder/Copy%20of%20Agriculture/2016-2017_Agricultural_Production_Survey.pdf Adoption of improved agricultural practices Access to alternative income Education Indicator category Access to financial services APPENDIX TABLE A . 1 APPENDIX TABLE 21 SUMMARISED ADAPTIVE CAPACITY (AC) INDICATORS COLLECTED FOR ALL DISTRICTS OF LESOTHO (AC) INDICATORS SUMMARISED ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

20 RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS APPENDIX TABLE A .2 . PROJECTED INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MEAN MONTHLY TEMPERATURE (°C) IN THE DISTRICTS OF LESOTHO AT HISTORICAL AND MID-CENTURY PERIODS, AND MONTHLY ANOMALIES BETWEEN THE TWO TIME PERIODS

MONTH J F M A M J J A S O N D Historical (°C) 18.6 18.0 16.3 13.4 10.2 7.4 7.5 9.7 13.2 15.0 15.9 17.5

Future (°C) 20.5 20.0 18.3 15.4 12.5 9.7 9.8 12.1 15.5 17.4 18.0 19.4

BEREA Anomaly (°C) 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.1 1.9

Historical (°C) 15.8 15.6 14.1 11.3 8.1 5.5 5.4 7.6 11.0 12.9 13.7 15.0

Future (°C) 17.7 17.5 16.0 13.2 10.3 7.8 7.7 9.9 13.2 15.2 15.6 16.9 BUTHE BUTHA- Anomaly (°C) 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.9

Historical (°C) 17.0 16.6 15.0 12.2 9.0 6.3 6.4 8.5 11.9 13.8 14.6 16.0

Future (°C) 18.9 18.5 17.0 14.1 11.2 8.6 8.6 10.8 14.1 16.1 16.6 17.9

LERIBE Anomaly (°C) 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.9

Historical (°C) 20.4 19.7 17.9 14.8 11.3 8.6 8.7 10.8 14.1 16.1 17.3 19.1

Future (°C) 22.4 21.7 19.9 16.8 13.5 10.8 10.9 13.1 16.3 18.6 19.4 21.1

MAFETENG Anomaly (°C) 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.0

Historical (°C) 19.2 18.5 16.8 13.9 10.6 7.9 8.0 10.1 13.4 15.3 16.3 17.9

Future (°C) 21.1 20.5 18.8 15.9 12.8 10.2 10.3 12.5 15.6 17.6 18.3 19.8

MASERU Anomaly (°C) 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.9

Historical (°C) 19.5 18.9 17.2 14.1 10.7 8.1 8.2 10.4 13.4 15.2 16.5 18.2

Future (°C) 21.4 20.8 19.2 16.1 12.9 10.3 10.4 12.6 15.6 17.6 18.5 20.1 HOEK

MOHALE’S Anomaly (°C) 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.9

Historical (°C) 14.7 14.3 12.9 10.0 7.0 4.5 4.6 6.7 9.8 11.5 12.2 13.6

Future (°C) 16.5 16.2 14.8 11.9 9.2 6.8 6.8 8.9 11.9 13.7 14.2 15.4

Anomaly (°C) 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.8 MOKHOTLONG

Historical (°C) 18.6 18.1 16.6 13.9 11.0 8.4 8.5 10.6 13.4 14.8 15.8 17.2

Future (°C) 20.4 19.9 18.5 15.8 13.1 10.6 10.7 12.8 15.4 17.0 17.8 18.9 NEK

QACHA’S QACHA’S Anomaly (°C) 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.7

Historical (°C) 18.3 17.9 16.3 13.4 10.1 7.5 7.6 9.6 12.5 14.1 15.3 16.9

Future (°C) 20.2 19.7 18.2 15.3 12.2 9.6 9.6 11.8 14.5 16.2 17.3 18.7

QUTHING Anomaly (°C) 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8

Historical (°C) 17.4 17.0 15.5 12.6 9.6 7.1 7.3 9.3 12.3 13.9 14.7 16.1

Future (°C) 19.3 18.8 17.4 14.5 11.8 9.4 9.5 11.5 14.4 16.1 16.7 17.9

Anomaly (°C) 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.8 THABA-TSEKA

CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE CROP SUITABILITY IN LESOTHO 21 APPENDIX TABLE A .3 . PROJECTED INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MEAN MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (MM/MONTH) IN THE DISTRICTS OF LESOTHO AT HISTORICAL AND MID-CENTURY PERIODS, AND MONTHLY ANOMALIES BETWEEN THE TWO TIME PERIODS

MONTH mm/month TOTAL J F M A M J J A S O N D Historical 109.9 99.0 86.4 52.7 21.7 13.9 7.5 20.9 27.1 75.8 96.7 99.5 711 1.

Future 104.6 96.0 79.2 48.6 19.5 11.3 6.1 15.2 20.9 69.2 94.8 95.0 660 4. BEREA Anomaly -5.4 -3.0 -7.2 -4.1 -2.2 -2.6 -1.5 -5.7 -6.2 -6.6 -2.0 -4.4 -50.7

Historical 131.1 111.0 95.6 53.6 22.7 15.8 11.6 23.2 31.1 86.5 111.3 120.6 814 1.

Future 126.0 106.8 88.6 49.9 20.8 12.9 9.3 17.2 24.0 78.4 108.4 115.7 758 BUTHE BUTHA- Anomaly -5.2 -4.2 -7.1 -3.7 -1.9 -2.9 -2.3 -6.0 -7.1 -8.1 -2.9 -5.0 -56.1

Historical 116.0 102.7 86.0 50.3 21.4 13.5 9.2 21.5 28.0 80.3 100.0 108.2 737 1.

Future 111.0 99.2 78.9 46.8 19.5 10.9 7.4 15.8 21.7 72.9 97.4 104.2 685 7. LERIBE Anomaly -5.0 -3.5 -7.1 -3.5 -1.9 -2.6 -1.8 -5.7 -6.3 -7.4 -2.6 -4.0 -51.4

Historical 99.0 94.1 81.5 48.1 19.0 14.2 8.7 19.5 26.3 61.4 81.2 84.8 637 8.

Future 92.4 90.6 75.2 44.8 17.1 12.0 6.9 13.9 20.4 54.4 79.1 80.5 587 3.

MAFETENG Anomaly -6.6 -3.5 -6.3 -3.3 -1.9 -2.2 -1.8 -5.5 -6.0 -7.0 -2.1 -4.2 -50.5

Historical 106.7 96.7 82.6 51.0 20.5 14.3 8.6 20.7 28.0 69.3 90.0 92.4 680 8.

Future 100.9 93.4 76.2 47.6 18.5 11.9 6.9 15.0 21.7 62.8 88.3 87.9 631 1.

MASERU Anomaly -5.8 -3.2 -6.4 -3.4 -2.0 -2.4 -1.7 -5.7 -6.2 -6.4 -1.7 -4.5 -49.7

Historical 98.9 93.3 79.3 47.3 19.2 15.2 9.4 19.4 28.5 63.7 81.3 88.6 644 1.

Future 92.8 89.8 73.8 44.4 17.6 12.8 7.8 14.1 22.6 57.6 79.0 85.2 597 5. HOEK

MOHALE’S Anomaly -6.1 -3.5 -5.5 -2.8 -1.5 -2.4 -1.6 -5.3 -5.9 -6.1 -2.3 -3.4 -46.6

Historical 134.7 117.8 89.1 44.8 17.0 11.8 9.1 21.8 33.7 84.4 99.7 122.1 786

Future 128.7 113.5 82.6 41.6 16.2 9.7 7.6 16.5 26.9 76.9 97.1 116.9 734 2.

Anomaly -6.0 -4.4 -6.5 -3.2 -0.8 -2.1 -1.5 -5.3 -6.8 -7.5 -2.6 -5.2 -51.8 MOKHOTLONG

Historical 124.9 106.1 82.2 38.1 13.6 11.9 8.6 15.7 29.8 69.0 84.3 109.6 693 8.

Future 117.9 102.0 76.5 35.7 12.9 9.8 7.3 11.7 24.1 63.0 81.8 105.8 648 5. NEK

QACHA’S QACHA’S Anomaly -7.0 -4.1 -5.7 -2.4 -0.7 -2.1 -1.3 -4.0 -5.7 -6.0 -2.5 -3.8 -45.3

Historical 102.5 97.3 81.0 46.6 19.4 17.0 11.3 19.4 30.3 63.6 84.3 93.6 666 3.

Future 95.6 93.7 75.6 44.2 18.0 14.9 10.0 14.4 24.4 58.6 80.6 90.9 620 9.

QUTHING Anomaly -6.9 -3.6 -5.4 -2.4 -1.5 -2.1 -1.3 -5.0 -5.8 -5.0 -3.7 -2.7 -45.4

Historical 118.6 102.3 79.7 41.0 15.9 11.7 8.6 19.8 30.9 76.5 88.7 107.4 701 1.

Future 112.6 98.7 73.8 38.4 15.0 9.5 7.2 14.7 24.5 69.4 86.3 103.3 653 4. TSEKA THABA- Anomaly -6.0 -3.6 -5.9 -2.6 -0.9 -2.1 -1.4 -5.0 -6.4 -7.1 -2.4 -4.2 -47.7

22 RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE CROP SUITABILITY IN LESOTHO 23