RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in LESOTHO Research Highlights – Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in Lesotho Funded by ‘Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Programme’ (ASAP) Phase 2. International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) Produced by the University of Cape Town Undertaken in support of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) by: African Climate & Development Initiative (www.acdi.uct.ac.za) Climate System Analysis Group (www.csag.uct.ac.za) Environmental Policy Research Unit (www.epru.uct.ac.za) Recommended citation: Hunter. R., Crespo. O., Coldrey, K, Cronin, K, New, M. 2020. Research Highlights – Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in Lesotho. University of Cape Town, South Africa, undertaken in support of Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Programme’ (ASAP) Phase 2. International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), Rome. The content and presentation of material in this report is the sole responsibility of the Authors and does not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Fund for Agricultural Development of the United Nations. The project team gratefully acknowledges the support of IFAD towards this research and in particular the IFAD country office and project staff. The project team thanks the various stakeholders and contributors who have shared their knowledge and time during this study. CONTENTS Background and context . 1 Summary results . 2 Method and Approach . 3 Impacts........................................................................................3 Figure 1. Demonstration example of the distribution of crop suitability index. generated using EcoCrop ........4 Adaptive Capacity ...............................................................................5 Table 1. Ranked Adaptive Capacity (AC) indicator scores for all regions of Lesotho ..........................5 Climate projections . 6 Projected changes to Temperature in Lesotho by 2050 . 6 Table 2. Projected influence of climate change on mean monthly temperature (°C) in Lesotho at Historical and Mid-Century periods, and monthly anomalies between the two time periods ..............................6 Climate – projected changes to rainfall in Lesotho by 2050 . 7 Table 3. Projected influence of climate change on mean monthly precipitation (mm/month) in Lesotho at Historical and Mid-Century periods, and monthly anomalies between the two time periods ..................7 Climate change and its effect on crops: BEANS . 8 Climate change and its effect on crops: MAIZE . 10 Climate change and its effect on crops: PEAS . 12 Climate change and its effect on crops: SORGHUM . 14 Climate change and its effect on crops: WHEAT . 16 Summary of findings, recommendations, adaptation strategies and climate-resilient alternatives for smallholder farmers . 18 Appendix tables . 19 RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE CROP SUITABILITY IN LESOTHO BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT The Adaptation for Smallholder risks and economic impacts stands of fruit trees, kitchen-scale Agriculture Programme (ASAP) is related to climate change, as well gardens and ‘keyhole’ planters for a flagship programme within the as potential adaptation options production of diverse vegetable International Fund for Agricultural and opportunities to increase species, and grazed production of Development’s (IFAD’s) portfolio climate resilience. The following cattle and small ruminant livestock. of activities aimed at channelling report provides a brief summary climate and environmental finance of highlighted results for Lesotho, to smallholder farmers, and which including: i) projected changes allows IFAD country programmes to temperature and precipitation to design projects which integrate as a result of climate change; and considerations of the impacts of ii) impacts of climate change on climate change on smallholder the future suitability of several farmers. To support the integration major crops and resulting impacts of climate information and improved on production across each of the knowledge of climate related risks country’s ten Districts. to the smallholder agriculture sector, IFAD commissioned a AGRICULTURE IN Climate Risk Analysis to assess the potential impacts of climate change LESOTHO on several crops and commodities Lesotho’s agricultural production in Lesotho. is characterised by relatively low The full Climate Risk Analysis report productivity of a small selection of (accessible via the IFAD Country staple crops. Rainfed agriculture, page1) provides an analysis of inter practiced by smallholder farmers, alia i) the current and future climate accounts for the vast majority characteristics of Lesotho; ii) the of the planted area. In addition potential change in the suitability to rainfed production of staple of various crops under projected crops, there are complex mixed climate changes; and iii) potential farming practices that include small 1 https://www.ifad.org/en/web/operations/country/id/lesotho CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE CROP SUITABILITY IN LESOTHO 1 SUMMARY RESULTS The likely effects of climate change assessed. The annual production of district are a function of both the are not fully consistent between certain climate-sensitive crops such impact of climate change on crop each of Lesotho’s ten Districts as beans, maize and sorghum is production, as well as the adaptive or the crops assessed, however, expected to be negatively impacted capacities of each community to several general observations can by increased temperatures and manage and respond to climate be made. For example, all districts reduced or delayed rainfall, thereby risks. This study found that the in the study area are predicted to causing a reduction in the extent districts of Leribe, Butha-Buthe and experience increasing temperatures of suitable production areas as Berea were characterised by the throughout the year, indicated well as reducing the productivity highest adaptive capacity scores (i.e. by increased average monthly of remaining areas. Certain crops the latter three districts have the greatest capacity to respond and ‘Mean Temperature’ as well as such as wheat, and to some degree adapt to climate change impacts), average ‘Minimum Temperature’. sorghum and sweetpeas, are while the districts of Qacha’s Nek, Furthermore, all districts are comparatively less affected by the Thaba-Tseka and Mokhotlong were predicted to experience an overall predicted climate changes and may likely to have the lowest adaptive decrease in the annual, seasonal and even benefit from minor increases capacities. monthly precipitation between the in production in certain districts – present day and the ‘Mid-Century’ the latter crops may be appropriate It is important to note that the future (defined by the period 2040– alternatives to be promoted in areas following analyses are based on 2069). Average monthly rainfall is where the production of other crops consideration of a narrow range predicted to decrease in all districts is expected to become marginal. of modelled variables and the for the months of September, resultant effects on crop suitability. Despite these common trends, October and November, which are Consequently, this study cannot considered to be the start of the there are also several district- account for local-level factors such rainy season. These results may be specific effects on climate variables as differences in performance, indicative of a delay in the onset and resultant crop suitability that climatic suitability and yield of the traditional rainy seasons, will necessitate the development potential between local land races or alternatively a decrease in the of tailored local-level adaptation or improved cultivars. In addition, effective duration of the rainy plans and strategies for agricultural the study cannot consider or predict season. Overall, the predicted trend development. Several districts in the effect of different cultivation is one of decreased annual rainfall, the northeast, including Leribe, methods and technologies that may where average annual rainfall across Butha-Buthe and Thaba-Tseka, may be practiced within the study area. Lesotho is predicted to decrease benefit from increased suitability in Finally, in terms of predicting the from 708 mm to 658 mm (i.e. a areas which are currently considered likely effects of climate change and decrease of 50 mm or 7%). marginal. In comparison, the resultant risks to crop production, southern and southwestern areas of this study cannot account for The full study includes analyses Mafeteng, Mohale’s Hoek, Quthing indirect effects of climate change on of the predicted effect of climate and Qacha’s Nek are predicted to crop production, such as increased change on various crops, particularly experience negative impacts on vulnerability to pests and disease, cereals (maize, sorghum, wheat) virtually all crops – the latter areas soil degradation or flooding/ and legumes (common bean and are likely to require extensive waterlogging. However, the study sweet peas), in each of Lesotho’s support and capacity-building to does find that climate change is ten districts. The combined effects manage the impacts of climate likely to result in multiple negative of reduced precipitation during the change on agricultural production effects on smallholder farmers in the traditional growing seasons and and food security. study area, through disruption of increased temperatures will result familiar seasonal trends, increased in a complex matrix