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Equity Daily Note 23 July 2020: 8:49 CET Calls from Italy Date and time of production Italy/Equity Market On Our Radar: Today’s Newsflow Stock Markets: Performance Positive Negative Chg (%) 1D 3M 6M 12M - FCA; CNH Industrial; ENAV FTSE All Share -0.5 21.8 -13.4 -5.3 FTSE MIB -0.6 22.9 -13.1 -5.2 FTSE IT Star 0.3 12.3 -9.3 5.0 New Research 2 Euro Stoxx 50 -1.2 8.9 -11.4 -4.1 Stoxx Small 200 -0.3 15.5 -11.3 -1.8 Pirelli (HOLD) Company Note: HOLD; New TP EUR 3.7/sh 2 NASDAQ 0.2 26.0 14.1 30.5 S&P 500 0.6 17.0 -1.4 9.7 Company News 3 Atlantia (HOLD) Update 3 FTSE MIB Best & Worst: 1D% chg Atlantia (HOLD) Traffic Update: Motorways Towards a 30% Drop 4 Buzzi Unicem 3.3 Pirelli -2.9 Cattolica Assicurazioni (HOLD) Press on Joint-Stock Company & Capital Increase 4 A2A 2.7 Moncler -2.6 De' Longhi (HOLD) Read-across from SEB 5 EXOR 1.7 Eni -2.5 Diasorin (Under Review) Further Investigation into San Matteo-Diasorin 5 ENAV (HOLD) Postponement of 1H20 Results’ Release 6 Euro Stoxx Best&Worst Sectors -1D % Eni (BUY) Renewables and Potential Disposals in E&P 6 Financials Serv 0.2 Oil & Gas -2.8 Real Estate 0.2 Media -1.8 FCA (BUY)/CNH Ind. (HOLD) Diesel Emissions Issue and EU Antitrust 7 Construction -0.2 Travel/Leisure -1.7 Unicredit (BUY)/Banca IFIS (BUY) UCG Disposed EUR 840M NPL, of which EUR 486M to IFIS 8 FTSE MIB-STAR Performance (-12M) Sector News 9 120 115 110 105 Asset Gatherers Sector Press on ECB Positioning on Dividends 9 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 J A S O N D J F M A M J J FTSE MIB INDEX FTSE ITALIA STAR Source: FactSet; Upcoming Intesa Sanpaolo Events What? Where? When? ISMO Virtual 2-4 & 22-24 Sept New Credit Research 10 Italian Green Bonds 10 Report priced at market close on day prior to issue; Ratings and Target Prices as assigned in the Samplelatest company reports (unless otherwise indicated) Intesa Sanpaolo Research Dept Equity Research Team Corporate Broking Research Team Sales & Trading +39 02 7261 2905 Equity Daily See page 11 for full disclosure and analyst certification 23 July 2020: 08:51 CET Date and time of first circulation Equity Daily 23 July 2020 New Research Pirelli (HOLD) Pirelli - Key Data 23/07/2020 Auto & Components Company Note: HOLD; New TP EUR 3.7/sh Target Price (EUR) 3.7 Rating HOLD Rating = TP (€/sh) ▲ 2020E EPS (€) ▼ 2021E EPS (€) ▼ 2020C EPS (€) 2021C EPS (€) Mkt price (EUR) 3.77 Current HOLD 3.7 0.222 0.324 0.393 0.450 Mkt cap (EUR M) 3767 Previous HOLD 3.4 0.286 0.356 - - Main Metrics (€ M) 2020E 2021E 2022E Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates and FactSet consensus Revenues 4,146.4 4,498.7 4,789.3 EBITDA 781.6 978.4 1,143.8 EPS (EUR) 0.222 0.324 0.40 On the back of our 2Q/1H20 preview, which points to a 2Q20 adj. EBIT loss at EUR 77M, Net debt/-cash 3,358.2 3,004.7 2,674.9 and on Pirelli’s main peers market trend indications, we cut our FY20E revenues and adj. Ratios (x) 2020E 2021E 2022E EBIT by 3.6% and around 14%, respectively, to also incorporate a more negative FX Adj. P/E 16.9 11.6 9.4 impact and FX penalisation on raw materials in FY20. Following the recent sector EV/EBITDA 9.5 7.2 5.9 EV/EBIT 26.0 14.8 10.5 multiples’ re-rating and considering that our view on FY volumes and price mix remains Debt/EBITDA 4.3 3.1 2.3 largely unchanged, we confirm our neutral stance on Pirelli. Div yield (%) 0.6 2.0 3.1 Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Absolute -3.4 14.8 -28.0 Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh -8.5 -5.7 -23.9 Source: FactSet, Company data, Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates Monica Bosio - Research Analyst +39 02 8794 9809 [email protected] Sample 2 Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department Equity Daily 23 July 202023 July 2020 Company News Atlantia (HOLD) Atlantia - Key Data 23/07/2020 Motorways Update Target Price (EUR) 13.6 Rating HOLD Market Mover Positive Neutral Negative Mkt price (EUR) 14.41 Mkt cap (EUR M) 11895 What’s up? According to Il Sole 24 Ore, the state guaranteed loan requested by ASPI Main Metrics (€ Bn) 2020E 2021E 2022E for more than EUR 1Bn, to a consortium of banks may be stopped due to the ongoing Revenues 8.19 10.39 10.97 disposal of the company to CDP, which would lead to a change of the Convenzione EBITDA 4.50 6.26 6.78 Unica and consequently the tariff profiles and returns. In addition, the loan may not be EPS (EUR) 0.459 1.05 1.53 Net debt/-cash 40.12 35.56 35.12 necessary once the capital increase subscribed by CDP for EUR 4Bn is completed, Ratios (x) 2020E 2021E 2022E materially strengthening the capital structure of ASPI and likely leaving room for an early Adj. P/E Neg. 13.8 9.4 redemption of part of the current loans. At the same time, according to Il Messaggero EV/EBITDA 13.3 8.6 7.9 today ASPI will present the updated Economic Financial Plan envisaging EUR 14.5Bn EV/EBIT 74.6 19.8 15.4 Debt/EBITDA 8.9 5.7 5.2 capex and EUR 7Bn maintenance expenses while discussions on the tariffs are intense Div yield (%) 0 6.2 6.8 and it seems that both the Ministry of Infrastructure and CDP are pushing for less severe Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M cuts compatible with the current traffic trend to keep the investment in ASPI appealing. Absolute 0.7 10.8 -38.9 The end of the complex procedure for the approval of the Economic Financial plan will Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh -4.6 -9.0 -35.5 Source: FactSet, Company data, Intesa Sanpaolo take a few months, according to the same source. On the contrary, the signature of Research estimates the Memorandum of Understanding, ruling ASPI shareholding reshuffle and expected by 27 July, maybe postponed due to the complexity of the dossier and the lack of Luca Bacoccoli - Research Analyst agreement on ASPI’s valuation, ranging from EUR 8Bn for CDP and between EUR 10- +39 02 8794 9810 12Bn according to ATL. [email protected] What we think: We think that reaching an agreement on tariffs and setting a fair value for ASPI are the two major hurdles of the negotiations, which may delay the conclusion of the whole process. We highlight that plugging ASPI’s valuation into ATL Sum of the part in the range of EUR 10-12Bn, ATL fair value would get close to EUR 20/sh. leaving ample upside from current level. Given the high uncertainty, we keep our HOLD recommendation and TP unchanged. Sample Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department 3 Market Mover: The indicators Positive/Neutral/Negative are the analysts’ view on the market’s possible reaction to the news in question. Intesa Sanpaolo’s fundamentals-based 12-month rating can be found in the key data table in the comment. Equity Daily 23 July 2020 Atlantia (HOLD) Atlantia - Key Data 23/07/2020 Motorways Traffic Update: Motorways Towards a 30% Drop Target Price (EUR) 13.6 Rating HOLD Market Mover Positive Neutral Negative Mkt price (EUR) 14.41 Mkt cap (EUR M) 11895 What’s up? Week 29 traffic update (from 13 June to 19 July) is as follows: ASPI -14.4% Main Metrics (€ Bn) 2020E 2021E 2022E (-35.6% YTD), Spain and France motorways down 17.3% (-36.5% YTD) and -6.3% (-30.9% Revenues 8.19 10.39 10.97 YTD), respectively, while airports reported an 82.6% and 67.5% drop for ADR (-70.7% YTD) EBITDA 4.50 6.26 6.78 and Nice (-68.5% YTD), respectively. As far as LATAM is concerned, Brazilian and Chilean EPS (EUR) 0.459 1.05 1.53 Net debt/-cash 40.12 35.56 35.12 motorways traffic showed a YTD drop of 14.8% and 34.9%, respectively, with weekly Ratios (x) 2020E 2021E 2022E declines of 19.4% and 54.7%, respectively. Traffic in Mexico dropped 20.5% (-16% YTD). Adj. P/E Neg. 13.8 9.4 EV/EBITDA 13.3 8.6 7.9 What we think: Italian motorways traffic again showed a steady improvement after last EV/EBIT 74.6 19.8 15.4 Debt/EBITDA 8.9 5.7 5.2 week’s controversial data, while Spain and France reported worsened data, but the Div yield (%) 0 6.2 6.8 latter reading is well below the 10% drop and the former in the high-teens. Overall, in Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Europe motorways the YTD is approaching, though at different pace, the 30% drop. On Absolute 0.7 10.8 -38.9 the contrary, the trend in LatAm is less clear, with Brazil and Mexico reporting for the Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh -4.6 -9.0 -35.5 Source: FactSet, Company data, Intesa Sanpaolo second and third week, respectively, a deterioration on the trend, likely linked to the Research estimates continued spread of the pandemic. As far as airports are concerned, Nice data confirms a quicker recovery than ADR but we still think that the 60% drop in 2020 Luca Bacoccoli - Research Analyst followed by a slow recovery is the most likely scenario at this stage, given that the +39 02 8794 9810 international traffic rebound is limited by the increasing contagion experienced in [email protected] several countries in North America, LatAm and Eastern Europe.
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