Mb Group Credit Profile
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MB GROUP CREDIT PROFILE Update as at 30 September 2020 AGENDA 1. MB Group today 2. 1Q/3M FY21 Results 3. Funding & Treasury 3.1 Funding: structure & evolution 3.2 Treasury: structure & evolution Annex 1. 12m figures as at June 20 MEDIOBANCA AT A GLANCE MB Group today Section 1 Revenues1 RWAs1 Key financial information1 Revenues: €2.5bn CETI : 16.1%, Tot. Cap: 18.8% Net profit: €600m Moody’s rating 3 Baa1 WM WM 10% ROTE adj: 10% S&P rating 3 : BBB 23% Consumer 3 CIB 25% C/I ratio: 47% Fitch rating : BBB- CIB Consumer 42% 4 23% 43% Total assets: €79bn DPS: €0 Other Loan book: €47bn Stated payout: 0% Other 23% 11% TFA: €64bn Loan/funding ratio: 85% No. of staff: 4.9k Market cap.3: €5.4bn Revenues (€m) Net profit (€m) ROTE adjusted2 2,525 2,513 2,419 Net profit 10% 10% 10% 2,196 adj.: 887 864 823 750 One-off 8% includ. Covid 600 June17 June 18 June19 June20 June17 June18 June 19 June 20 June17 June18 June19 June 20 1) Figures referred to FY20 period (June-end 2020 annual period) 3 2) Excluding items stemming from Covid emergency, systemic fund provisions, impairments on equity stakes and securities, and other positive/negative one-off items 3) As at 29 October 2020 4) In accordance with ECB guidance on Covid crisis AN INTEGRATED BUSINESS MODEL… MB Group today Section 1 HIGH SYNERGIC BUSINESS Capital light Wealth Corporate & Labour intensive Fee driver Fee driver Recurrent Management Inv.Banking Cyclical REALLOCATION OPPORTUNITY DIVERSIFICATION OPPORTUNITY EPS/DPS accretive Principal Capital intensive Revenue driver Consumer NII driver Source of capital Investing Banking Anti-cyclical HIGH RETURN BUSINESS 4 …BASED ON STRONG POSITIONING IN SPECIALIZED, HIGH MARGIN BUSINESS… MB Group today Section 1 WEALTH MANAGEMENT - ROAC 19% CONSUMER BANKING - ROAC 31% A reputable player in Affluent & Private “Compass: top Italian consumer credit operator” Affluent: CheBanca! on top of digital-technological frontier, sustainable and innovative offer Distribution and scoring built in 50 years Cost-efficient, strong credit risk assessment, Private: gathering UNHWI/HNWI, synergic with mid pricing margin driven corporate business, benchmark in private markets Countercyclical business Selected competences in alternative & traditional AM CIB - ROAC 13% PRINCIPAL INVESTING - ROAC 18% “The leading Italian IB, established role in Southern EU” “13% stake in Ass.Generali” Client driven, highly specialized, cyclical business Cost-efficient, strong credit risk assessment, Revenues, EPS, DPS stabilizer ~45% revenues from outside Italy Cost-tax free investment Leveraging MMA presence in France Potential source of capital Specialty Finance: from green field to sizable WHERE MEDIOBANCA IS NOT PRESENT CIB: large FICC business to be heavily restructured, problematic sectors such as ITA small business, shipping, real estate development RETAIL: large and oversized traditional retail branches network, legacy IT/CRM system 5 ROAC refers to 12M June 20 figures SUPPORTED BY A STRONG A&L STRUCTURE… MB Group today Section 1 Specialty Balance sheet as at 30 September 2020 Finance PB deposits 4% Mortgages Total: €81.9bn 15% 22% Retail Other Large deposits Leasing 12% corporate 28% 4% 35% €46.8bn Private €56.7bn Banking ECB 7% 11% Bonds to Loans/ institutional Consumer Loans Funding: 22% lending 57% Funding Bonds 28% 83% to retail 69% 12% CET11: 16.2% Total Capital: 18.8% Leverage Ratio1: 9.3% BB govies 36% Treasury Liquidity Net NSFR: 109%, LCR (end-of period): 164% 39% assets Treasury Treasury €15bn 34% €15bn liabilities 15% NPLs/loans: 4.2% gross, 1.9% net NPLs coverage: 57% Equity 12% Equity Inv. 5% Bad loans/loans: 1.0% gross, 0.2% net Corporate Bad loans coverage: 82% Client & bonds 14% other Assets Liabilities 8% Trading book 3% Loans : 43% corporate, 57% retail; ~80% Italy, ~20% non-domestic Funding: 55% from retail investors (12% bonds to retail, 28% retail deposits and 15% PB deposits) 1) CET1 FL: 14.6%; Leverage ratio FL: 7.4% 6 …WITH A LOW RISK PROFILE REAFFIRMED MB Group today Section 1 Loans under moratoria well below Italian average, Stage 2 high coverage, stage 3 aligned to EU averages Total granted moratoria Stage 2 loans Stage 3 loans % of loans¹ % of loans2 % of loans2 22.0% 25% 20.0% 3% 10.3% 15.0% 20% outstanding 3.8% 3.4% 10.0% 12.0% 10% 15% coverage 5.0% 53% 60.0% 0.0% 8% 45% 47% 50.0% 5.6% 10% -5.0%6% coverage 40.0% 11.3% -10.0%4% 5% 8.2% 6.4% -15.0%2% 4.3% 3.4% 6.5% 30.0% MB Listed ITA All ITA banks 0% -20.0%0% 20.0% banks MB EU avg. IT avg. MB EU avg. IT avg. MB: buffers well over SREP and MREL requirements MB: liquidity and funding ratios at strong levels 193% >800bps buffer 42.4% MREL liabilities 2x 4 >650bps fully loaded requirement 166% 165% 160% 164% LCR 109% 109% 16.2% 105% 103% 103% MREL req. NSFR 21.6% SREP req. 7.9%3 CET1 ratio (Sept20) MREL liabilities (% RWA, June20) Sept19 Dec19 Mar20 June20 Sept20 1) MB as at Sept.20. Source: Bank of Italy, as of 11 September 2020; ITA banks’ June20 results presentations, reports and pillar 3 2) Source: EBA Risk Dashboard – Data as of June 2020- %of loans (histogram) and coverage ratio (dots) 7 3) In March 2020 the ECB brought forward application of CRD V Article 105. This means that 75% of Mediobanca P2R (1.25%) is now met by CET1 instruments and the other 25% with Tier 2 instruments, bringing the SREP minimum CET1 requirement down from 8.25% to 7.94% 4) Sub stack at 20.2% vs 16.5% requirement BP19/23 STRATEGY, TARGETS CONFIRMED, NOW INCLUDING COVID IMPACT MB Group today Section 1 Shift to capital-light fee Revenue growth in a Enhanced return to business challenging environment shareholders Targeting industry-leading performance CET1 ratio progressively Revenues growth Earnings growth Profitability growth optimized at 13.5% throughout 2023 +4% CAGR1 +4% EPS CAGR1 ROTE23 @11% with a mix of cash dividend and share buyback CAPITAL MANAGEMENT POLICY DPS20 = 0, in accordance with ECB recommendation Dividend pay-out @70% in FY21, pending ECB guidance / authorization after end-Dec. 2020 Progressive optimization of CET1 to 13.5% confirmed by end-June 2023 as a mix of cash dividend and buybacks, the size and mix of which will be set annually depending on developments in the pandemic and Mediobanca stock price 8 1) 4YCAGR 19/23, including treasury shares cancellation (subject to ECB authorization) CSR/ESG PATH: DELIVERY COMMENCED, WELL ON TRACK MB Group today Section 1 FY20 non-financial performance Further ESG cornerstones set Several targets already reached, working to consolidate the remaining Employee competences enhanced with avg. training hours up 95% YoY (BPTarget23: 25%) in part to deal with Covid-19 emergency New Corporate Social Responsibility Committee at BoD level in addition Procedure adopted to reach targets for equal opportunities, including to the Group Sustainability specification in head-hunter mandates Management Committee AM: procedure started to include ESG criteria in investment evaluation (BPTarget23: 100% of new investments) CSR objectives included in the LTI €100m investments in outstanding Italian SMEs (BPtarget23: €700m) scheme as well as in BPlan23 ESG qualified products in clients’ portfolio up 20% (BPtarget23: up 30%) Group Sustainability Policy update €5.4m in FY20 for social/environmental proj. (BPtarget: €4m per year) MB Social Impact Fund: AUM up 29% (BPtarget23: up 20%) New Group Policy on Responsible Lending and Investing ESG bond issue: green and sustainable framework approved (BPtarget23: €500m) 36% of procurement exp. assessed with CSR criteria (BPtarget23: 40%) Customer satisfaction: CheBanca! CSI¹ in core segment² @74, NPS¹ @28 Materiality Matrix update (BPtarget23: 73 and 25) Energy: 93% from renewables (BPTarget23: lifted to 94%), CO2 down 6% (BPTarget23: revised to down 27%); hybrid cars: 13% (BPTarget23 : @90% of MB fleet) RAM Stable Climate Global Equities issued 1) CSI: Customer Satisfaction Index; NPS: Net Promoter Score 9 2) Core: Premier: clients with wealth between €100k and €5m AGENDA 1. MB Group today 2. 1Q/3M FY21 Results 3. Funding & Treasury 3.1 Funding: structure & evolution 3.2 Treasury: structure & evolution Annex 1. 12m figures as at June 20 1Q21: A POSITIVE START TO THE NEW FINANCIAL YEAR ALL BUSINESS SEGMENTS REACTING FAST 1Q/3M FY21 Results Section 2 Sound business recovery after lockdown, ahead of expectations and despite seasonality IB revenues picking up, pipeline rebuilding New loans in Consumer Banking back to 75% of pre-Covid levels, sufficient to offset loans expiring in 1Q WM: solid trend continuing in Affluent & Private segment Positive exit from moratoria in all business segments Consumer Banking: 90% of loans under moratoria have expired, ~90% of which have resumed regular payments Mortgages: 16% of loans under moratoria have expired, 85% of which have resumed regular payments Moratoria outstanding at MB Group halved to just 3% of loan book (€1.4bn), already provisioned Strong 1Q21 results Net profit up 4x QoQ to €200m, ROTE adjusted 9% CET1 at 16.2%1 (up 10bps QoQ), with 70% dividend payout2 accrued Revenues up 3% QoQ to €626m, driven by core revenues (NII+Fees up 9% QoQ) CIB rebounding (up 31%), solid trend in WM (up 4%), Consumer Banking holding up better than expected (down 2%) Cost of risk halved to 61 bps (141 bps in 4Q), Gross NPLs stable ~ 4% CSR/ESG strategy: delivery ongoing, with green bond issuance ahead of schedule 1) CET1 Phase-in. Managerial calculation that differs from the one used in the COREP Common Reporting exercise due to the 11 retained earnings generated in the period (not subject to authorization under Article 26 of the CRR) and based on a dividend payout of 70% subject to the ECB ban currently in place until 31 December 2020 being removed.