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Credit Strategy 3 September 2020: 19:14 CET Credit Market Opportunities Date and time of production Tactical View on Credit Markets Italy/Bi-Weekly Report After the negative performance recorded in 1H20, we believe that a moderate Index price performance spread tightening trend could occur in 2H20 for Italian IG Non-Financial corporate % Value -1W -1M bonds, as they are supported by the ECB’s heightened monetary stimulus amid IG ASW 89 -2.2 -11.9 HY OAS 398 -1.5 -8.1 resilient fundamentals, on average. Amid dovish monetary policies, investors’ hunt for Crossover 5Y 305 -5.5 -18.7 yield could also support the highest-rated HY names. However, careful credit selection Europe 5Y 50 -7.1 -17.0 will remain key in the HY segment, due to the more pronounced vulnerability of their % Value -1W -1M fundamentals to a deteriorating economic outlook. In the Italian bank bond sector, Euro Stoxx 50 3,338 -0.6 5.1 FTSE MIB 19,858 -1.4 4.0 we see as supportive factors the ECB’s comprehensive package of monetary stimulus * IG = Corporate IG. Source: Bloomberg and the large number of measures that have been adopted by regulators as well as Report priced at market close on day prior to the Italian fiscal packages and the forthcoming EU stimulus package of grants and issue (except where otherwise indicated). loans. However, the Italian macroeconomic scenario remains challenging, and we expect volatility to persist. ML IG Eur Corp. vs Itraxx Main (bps) Corporate (ASW) Investment Recommendations 220 170 In the corporate Investment Grade segment, we recommend the following switches: 120 1) buying IGIM 1 5/8 2027 bond and selling IGIM 1 2031 bond, expecting a widening of the ASW spread gap (currently 9bps); 2) buying EXOIM 2 1/4 04/30 bond and selling 70 EXOIM 1 3/4 10/34 bond, expecting an inversion of the current ASW gap; 3) buying 20 EXOIM 2 1/4 04/30 bond and selling EXOIM 1 3/4 01/28 bond, expecting a reduction of 01.10 07.13 01.17 07.20 the current ASW gap (60.7bps). We also close the switch between ENELIM 0 2024 bond Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research (BUY) and ENELIM 0 3/8 bond (SELL), with a pick-up of 15bps. elaboration on Bloomberg and Refinitiv data ML HY Eur vs Crossover 5Y (bps) In the bank bond segment, we recommend the following new switch: buying UCGIM 5 3/8 AT1 bond and selling UCGIM 7 1/2 AT1 bond, expecting an outperformance of EUR HY (ASW) Crossover 5Y shorter vs longer bond, with the former showing a higher YTC (6.6% vs 5.1%). We also 750 close the following switches as they have performed as expected: 1) buying BAMIIM 1 3/4 01/25 senior bond and selling BPEIM 1 7/8 07/25 senior bond (pick-up of 12bps); 550 and 2) buying UCGIM 1 01/23 SNP bond and selling UCGIM 1.8 01/30 SNP bond (pick- 350 up of 57.7bps). Sample 150 01.10 07.13 01.17 07.20 Investment recommendations – NEW Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research elaboration Date Bond Type Spread Rate Buy/Sell Entry level Current Pick-up Status on Bloomberg and Refinitiv data (bps) Level1 (bps) 03.09.20 EXOIM 2 1/4 04/29/30 Sen ASW FX BUY 205.1 205.1 0 NEW EXOIM 1 3/4 10/14/34 Sen ASW FX SELL 203.3 203.3 0 H16:33 03.09.20 EXOIM 2 1/4 04/29/30 Sen ASW FX BUY 205.1 205.1 0 NEW In this report, the company views and EXOIM 1 3/4 01/18/28 Sen ASW FX SELL 144.4 144.4 0 H16:33 recommendations are those assigned in the 03.09.20 IGIM 1 5/8 01/19/27 Sen ASW FX BUY 55.7 55.7 0 NEW latest company reports (unless otherwise IGIM 1 12/11/31 Sen ASW FX SELL 64.3 64.3 0 10:47 indicated). 03.09.20 UCGIM 5 3/8 PERP AT1 Price VR BUY 95.4 95.4 0.0 NEW UCGIM 7 1/2 PERP AT1 Price VR SELL 112.3 112.3 0.0 H15:56 FX = FIXED; VR = Variable; EXOIM = EXOR; IGIM = Italgas; UCGIM = Unicredit . 1) "Current level" on 03.09.2020. Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research elaboration of Bloomberg data Intesa Sanpaolo Research Dept. Credit Research Team See page 29 for full disclosure and analyst certification 3 September 2020: 19:16 CET Date and time of first circulation Credit Market Opportunities 3 September 2020 Contents Italian Bank Corporate Bonds 3 Investment Recommendations: New and Closed Today 3 Investment Recommendations: Open Ideas 3 Italian Bank Corporate bonds: Our Credit Views 3 Credit Value Maps 4 Italian Investment Grade Corporate Bonds 10 Investment Recommendations: New and Closed Today 10 Investment Recommendations: Open Ideas 10 Italian Investment Grade Corporate bonds: Our Credit Views 11 Italian High Yield Corporate Bonds 12 Investment Recommendations: Open Ideas 12 Italian High Yield and Unrated Corporate bonds: Our Credit Views 12 Credit Value Maps 13 Appendix 1: Current Levels of Corporate Bonds 16 Current Levels of Italian Bank Corporate Bonds 16 Current Levels of Italian IG and HY Corporate Bonds 19 Current Levels of Italian Subordinated Corporate Bonds 23 Appendix 2: Closed Recommendations 24 Italian Investment Grade Corporate Bonds: Closed Recommendations 25 Italian High Yield Corporate Bonds: ClosedSample Recommendations 27 In this report, we show the graphical representation of a series of bonds issued by Italian banks and corporates. The graphs attempt to highlight the relationship between Spreads, Maturities and the Credit Risk Profile. The ratings shown in the graphs are a numerical summary, calculated at the average between Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch, while also bearing in mind the outlook and possible credit watches by the two rating agencies for the single issues and are useful in assessing relative value opportunities between the bonds and / or issuers. 2 Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department Credit Market Opportunities 3 September 2020 Italian Bank Corporate Bonds Investment Recommendations: New and Closed Today Investment recommendations: New and Closed ideas Typ Spread/ Entry Curren Pick- Date Bond/CDS e Price Rate Buy/Sell level t level1 up Status 03.09.20 UCGIM 5 3/8 PERP AT1 Price VR BUY 95.4 95.4 0.0 NEW Switch opened in the expectation of an UCGIM 7 1/2 PERP AT1 Price VR SELL 112.3 112.3 0.0 H15:56 outperformance of shorter vs longer bond, with the former showing a higher 0.0 YTC. 16.07.20 BAMIIM 1 3/4 01/28/25 Sen ASW FX BUY 241.1 229.5 11.6 CLOSED BPEIM 1 7/8 07/07/25 Sen ASW FX SELL 217.0 217.4 0.4 03.09.20 Switch closed as it performed as 12.0 h 15:56 expected 11.06.20 UCGIM 1 01/18/23 SNP ASW FX BUY 205.7 118.6 87.1 CLOSED UCGIM 1.8 01/20/30 SNP ASW FX SELL 232.2 202.9 -29.4 Switch closed as it performed as 57.7 expected VR = FX = Fixed; VR = Variable; BAMIIM = Banco BPM; BPEIM = BPER Banca; UCGIM = Unicredit. Note: 1) "Current level" on 03.09.2020. Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research elaboration of Bloomberg data Investment Recommendations: Open Ideas Investment recommendations: Open ideas Typ Spread/ Entry Current Pick- Date Bond/CDS e Price Rate Buy/Sell level level1 up Status 11.06.20 UCGIM 6 3/4 PERP AT1 Price VR BUY 97.7 102.6 4.9 OPEN UCGIM 9 1/4 PERP AT1 Price VR SELL 108.1 110.4 -2.3 Switch opened in the expectation of an 2.6 outperformance of shorter vs longer bond VR = Variable; UCGIM = Unicredit. Note: 1) "Current level" on 03.09.2020 at 10:47 CET. Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research elaboration of Bloomberg data Italian Bank Corporate bonds: Our Credit Views Credit view on banks under coverage Group Credit View Date Moody’s Fitch Analyst Banco BPM NEGATIVE 11-Aug-20 Ba2/NG - Maria Grazia Antola BPER Banca Under Review 06-Aug-20 Ba3/NG BB/*- Maria Grazia Antola Banca MPS NEUTRAL 10-Aug-20 Caa1/*+ B/* Maria Grazia Antola Unicredit NEGATIVE 07-Aug-20 Baa1/S BBB-/S Maria Grazia Antola Note: NG = Negative; POS = Positive; S = Stable; *= ratingSample watch evolving. Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department 3 Credit Market Opportunities 3 September 2020 Credit Value Maps Senior Fixed Investment Grade – Maturity vs. ASW Spread (bps) Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research elaboration on Bloomberg data Senior Fixed Investment Grade – Rating vs. ASW Spread (bps) Sample Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research elaboration on Bloomberg data 4 Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department Credit Market Opportunities 3 September 2020 Senior Fixed High Yield – Maturity vs. ASW Spread (bps) Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research elaboration on Bloomberg data Senior Fixed High Yield – Rating vs. ASW Spread (bps) Sample Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research elaboration on Bloomberg data Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department 5 Credit Market Opportunities 3 September 2020 Covered Bonds Investment Grade issued by Italian banks - Maturity vs. ASW Spread (bps) Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research elaboration on Bloomberg data Sample 6 Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department Credit Market Opportunities 3 September 2020 LT2 Fixed High Yield - Maturity vs. Z Spread (bps) Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research elaboration on Bloomberg data LT2 Fixed High Yield - Rating vs. Z Spread (bps) Sample Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research elaboration on Bloomberg data Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department 7 Credit Market Opportunities 3 September 2020 LT2 Variable High Yield – Maturity1 vs.
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