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Inside Intelligence The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for the week of March 12 . INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 12 March 2012 INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 12 March 2012 Which members of the Texas congressional delegation are most likely to lose their seats? • "None" • "Not Lloyd Doggett. The cat with 9 lives will emerge with 6 or 7 lives and • "Lloyd Doggett" half his war chest intact." • "Doggett," • "None" • "Doggett" • "Lloyd Doggett" • "Congressman Doggett and • "Canseco" Congressman Conseco" • "Quico Canseco... Blake Farenthold" • "None" • "Lloyd Doggett" • "Reyes, Farenthold" • "Quico Canseco" • "Canseco" • "Canseco" • "Farenthold." • "Doggett, Farenthold, Canseco" • "Obvious Doggett, Farenthold in a Primary, I hear Ron Paul won't be • "Lloyd Doggett. It appears to be an back" extremely personal vendetta against Doggett and Travis County." • "Canseco, Farenthold, maybe Doggett depending on the primary • "Doggett and Canseco, but I think challenger (if any)" they both will be ok. Reyes will have a tough primary." • "Canseco" • "Doggett, unless the Hispanic vote • "Doggett" splits in the primary." • "Congressman Reyes" • "?" • "Quico Canseco and Lloyd (LLOYD! • "Doggett" ~ Ari Gold) Doggett. Maybe Blake Farenthold." • "Doggett; Canseco, Farenthold" • "Canseco, Farenthold" • "Doggett" • "Doggett, Canseco" • "Doggett... Canseco" • "Doggett" • "None" • "In order, Canseco, Farenthold" INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 12 March 2012 INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 12 March 2012 • "Francisco Conseco" • "Lloyd Doggett" • "Doggett" • "Doggett, Farenthold" • "It is difficult to gage at this time." • "Doggett & Canseco." • "Canseco... Doggett" Which Texas senators are most likely to lose their seats? • "Ron Paul. Duh." • "Blake Farenthold" • "Wendy Davis" • "Wendy Davis. Biggest target out there in dangerous territory. This ain't • "Farenthold is the only one even • "Canseco" • "Wendy Davis" 2008." vulnerable. Quico got a pretty good shake from the court map, and Flores • "Canseco" • "Wendy Davis" • "Davis" will be around until he's ready to go play golf in Bryan full time. And I'll • "Francisco Canseco" • "Davis, Wentworth" • "Davis" believe Doggett's dead when I see him in the casket. And even then I'll put a • "Doggett... Canseco... Reyes" • "Wendy Davis" • "I don't believe any standing mirror under his nose..." Senators will lose their seat." • "None" • "None" • "Doggett" • "Not Wendy Davis. The folk hero • "Lloyd Doggett (twice--his old one • "None" shall rise again." • "Doggett" in re-districting, and his new one in the primary)" • "Davis, Estes, Wentworth" • "Wentworth... Davis" • "Lloyd Doggett" • "Canseco" • "Estes" • "Wendy Davis, Wentworth." • "1. Liberal Lloyd Doggett... 2. Canseco... 3. Farenthold" • "Doggett, Farenthold" • "Davis." • "Davis" • "Blake Farenthold" • "Doggett" • "Wendy Davis had a perfect storm • "Wendy Davis" in 2008 and won by a whopping 2% • "Doggett" • "Hopefully Doggett" against a candidate not known for his • "Wentworth... Davis" campaign work ethic or his warm • "Doggett" • "Farenthold" personality." • "Davis; Estes; Seliger" • "Joe Barton. Well, I can dream can't • "Canseco seems the most vulnerable • "None" • "None" I." with Farenthold more secure in his new district but still vulnerable • "Davis and Wentworth are the only • "Jeff Wentworth, Wendy Davis" • "Any that are supported only by the because not a skilled campaigner." two with serious challenges but both tea party" of them are likely to retain their seats. • "Wendy Davis, Jeff Wentworth" • "Doggett" All the money in the world is • "Not sure" probably not enough to make Shelton • "Davis, Wentworth, Estes" • "Lloyd Doggett" or Elizabeth Ames Jones good enough • "None" candidates to win their races against • "Davis" • "Canseco" popular incumbents." • "Canseco" • "Don't know, but hope Wendy • "Lloyd Doggett... Quico Canseco'" • "None" Davis holds on since she is an • "Congressman Doggett." excellent senator." • "Canseco; Farenthold" • "Craig Estes, Wendy Davis" • "Doggett" INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 12 March 2012 INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 12 March 2012 • "Davis. Her complaining all the time • "Davis" • "Wendy Davis" • "Wendy Davis' district is winnable is similar to what caused Brimer by her but still likely to be hard problems when she beat him. • "None" • "None" fought." Wentworth will be fine - his criticisms of Jones sunk her." • "Wendy Davis" • "Davis" • "Wendy Davis... Jeff Wentworth" • "Wendy Davis. Which would put • "No incumbent. SD 11 is the race to • "Davis" • "Wendy Davis and Jeff Wentworth" Lucio into the swing-vote position watch." again." • "None" • "None" • "None" • "None" • "Wendy Davis" • "Wendy Davis" • "Estes" • "Davis" • "None" • "Gallego; Davis" • "Davis" • "Davis; Estes" • "Wendy Davis" • "None" • "Davis" • "Senator Davis is toast. Sen. Which Texas representatives are most likely to lose their seats? • "Wentworth" Wentworth might have issues, but he seems to be winning that race right • "Aaron Pena" • "James White, JM Lozano, Margo, • "None" now. And I guess Sen. Estes is on the Carter, Eiland" watch list now, too." • "James White... J.M. Lozano" • "None." • "Not sure at this point." • "Deuell" • "Ideologues in swing districts." • "Wendy Davis" • "Doggett" • "Huh? Incumbents will not be • "Torres, Guillen, Riddle, Berman, S. • "None" defeated." Carter, Perry" • "Mike Hamilton" • "Wendy Davis is the only one; • "The only State Senator in serious • "John Garza, JM Lozano, Wayne • "Brave move by Lozano. Might be Wentworth looks like he's in good jeopardy of losing her seat is Senator Christian, Marva Beck, Chuck his end, however." shape." Davis." Hopson, Dee Margo," • "I think those already bailing out • "Wendy Davis" • "Deuell... Davis... Wentworth" • "Representative Garza and saw the writing on the wall, but I'll Representative Margo" add Hamilton and Smith." • "0" • "Jeff Wentworth" • "Marva Beck" • "Hoping Riddle" • "Wendy Davis is it." • "Wendy Davis" • "Torres, Garza, Lozano, Harper- • "Let's hope that the lightweights of • "Wendy Davis still has an uphill • "Davis" Brown" '11 are shown the door. Paging climb. Money spent trying to defeat Representatives White and Beck, Wentworth is money wasted." • "Wendy Davis" • "Tuffy Hamilton" please exit stage (far) right." • "Wendy Davis" • "Wendy Davis" • "Beck, Landtroop, Christian, • "Christian, White, Landtroop, Margo." Burnam," • "Davis" • "Wentworth" • "Too many" • "White; Garza; Legler; Torres; Scott; • "Jeff Wentworth" • "Wendy Davis" Margo; Christian; Beck" INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 12 March 2012 INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 12 March 2012 • "JM Lozano... Ken Legler" • "Landtroop" • "Don't know." • "Legler, Hamilton'" • "Pena, Lozano" • "Don't know" • "Lozano, Landtroop, Hamilton, • "James White" Beck" • "Marva Beck" • "James White. Wayne Christian." • "Torres, Lozano, White" • "Marva Beck, Wayne Christian, Dee • "Legler, Lozano, Nash, Hopson, • "Landtroop" Margo" • "Wayne Christian, Marva Beck, Beck, Landtroop, White," Connie Scott, James White, Jim • "Wayne Christian" • "Lozano" Landtroop, Ken Legler, Dee Margo" • "Legler, Margo, Lozano" • "Don't know" • "No names, but I do expect the • "White" • "Hopefully the most recent party- Democrats to pick up a dozen seats switcher, Lozano." • "John Garza, Jim Landtroop, Ken based on bounce back from a terrible • "Simpson" Legler, Connie Scott, Raul Torres, year in 2010 and higher turnout in • "In the primaries, Marva Beck, Tuffy James White" 2012." Hamilton, Wayne Christian and Doc Anderson. Lozano will have a tough • "Tuffy" time in both primary and general. Who'll be the next lieutenant governor if Dewhurst moves on? Pena will have tough time in the • "Not sure." general." • "Duncan" suggest that a more conservative • "That is very difficult to gage from Republican or someone with the • "?" Austin." • "Duncan" unified support of the Democrats will win." • "Lozano" • "Eissler... Hamilton... Truitt... Todd • "Kevin Eltife." Smith... Nash" • "Elected or presiding officer?" • "Beck... Garza... Hamilton... • "Duncan" Landtroop... Lozano... Margo... • "Marva Beck" • "Duncan's the most adult and Torres... Workman" • "Eltife" common sense of them with some • "The Only Christian in The House, seniority who can work with both • "John Garza, JM Lozano" Beck, Hopson, Lozano, Legler, Garza, • "Not sure" sides, so it won't be him. Maybe Eltife. Margo" Anyone but Patrick." • "Raul Torres" • "Todd Staples" • "Morrison" • "Duncan" • "Don't know" • "Duncan" • "Ken Legler... Raul Torres... Connie • "Who the hell knows" • "Scott/Torres, Aliseda/Lozano, Scott... John Garza... James White" • "Robert Duncan" Margo, Garza, Legler." • "Williams" • "Ken Legler" • "Carona." • "Aaron Pena and his skinny me." • "Senator Duncan has the gravitas • "Anderson, Beck, Christian, Eiland, • "Eltife or Duncan" and budget experience to do the best • "J.M. Lozano. We'll see how his last Garza, Hopson, Landtroop, Legler, job but you have to wonder if name plays in a Republican primary." Lozano, Margo, Nash, Pena, Sheets, • "Abbott" Governor Perry's sanctuary city knife Torres, White, Workman" in the back will have a lingering • "Raul Torres, Connie Scott" • "Carona is in much better position impact. Eltife is well liked and a keen • "Cain, Christian,
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