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The Journal of The Journal of Economic Perspectives Economic Perspectives The Journal of Spring 2018, Volume 32, Number 2 Economic Perspectives Symposia Does the US Really Gain from Trade? Arnaud Costinot and Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, “The US Gains From Trade: Valuation Using the Demand for Foreign Factor Services” Robert C. Feenstra, “Alternative Sources of the Gains from International Trade: Variety, Creative Destruction, and Markups” Teresa C. Fort, Justin R. Pierce, and Peter K. Schott, “New Perspectives on the Decline of US Manufacturing Employment” Dani Rodrik, “What Do Trade Agreements Really Do?” A journal of the Risk in Economics and Psychology American Economic Association Ted O’Donoghue and Jason Somerville, “Modeling Risk Aversion in Economics” Thomas Dohmen, Armin Falk, David Huffman, and Uwe Sunde, “On the Relationship 32, Number 2 Spring 2018 Volume between Cognitive Ability and Risk Preference” Hannah Schildberg-Hörisch, “Are Risk Preferences Stable?” Rui Mata, Renato Frey, David Richter, Jürgen Schupp, and Ralph Hertwig, “Risk Preference: A View from Psychology” Articles Matthew Weinzierl, “Space, the Final Economic Frontier” Daron Acemoglu, “Dave Donaldson: Winner of the 2017 Clark Medal” Features Bruce Elmslie, “Retrospectives: Adam Smith’s Discovery of Trade Gravity” Recommendations for Further Reading Spring 2018 The American Economic Association The Journal of Correspondence relating to advertising, busi- Founded in 1885 ness matters, permission to quote, or change Economic Perspectives of address should be sent to the AEA business EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE office: [email protected]. Street ad- Elected Officers and Members dress: American Economic Association, 2014 A journal of the American Economic Association President Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN 37203. For membership, subscriptions, or complimentary OLIVIER BLANCHARD, Peterson Institute for International Economics Editor JEP for your e-reader, go to the AEA website: President-elect Enrico Moretti, University of California at Berkeley http://www.aeaweb.org. Annual dues for regu- BEN S. BERNANKE, The Brookings Institution lar membership are $20.00, $30.00, or $40.00, depending on income; for an additional fee, you Vice Presidents Coeditors can receive this journal, or any of the Associa- SUSAN C. ATHEY, Stanford University Gordon Hanson, University of California at San Diego tion’s journals, in print. Change of address no- PINELOPI KOUJIANOU GOLDBERG, Yale University Mark Gertler, New York University tice must be received at least six weeks prior to Members the publication month. JOHN Y. CAMPBELL, Harvard University Associate Editors Copyright © 2018 by the American Eco nomic HILARY HOYNES, University of California at Berkeley Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University Association. Permission to make dig ital or hard NICHOLAS BLOOM, Stanford University Leah Boustan, Princeton University copies of part or all of this work for personal or ERICA FIELD, Duke University classroom use is granted without fee provided ADRIANA LLERAS-MUNEY, University of California at Los Angeles Dora Costa, University of California at Los Angeles that copies are not made or distributed for profit BETSEY STEVENSON, University of Michigan Amy Finkelstein, Massachusetts Institute of Technology or direct commercial advantage and that cop- ies show this notice on the first page or initial Ex Officio Members Seema Jayachandran, Northwestern University screen of a display along with the full citation, in- ROBERT J. SHILLER, Yale University Guido Lorenzoni, Northwestern University cluding the name of the author. Copyrights for ALVIN E. ROTH, Stanford University Valerie Ramey, University of California at San Diego components of this work owned by others than Appointed Members Fiona Scott Morton, Yale University AEA must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. The author has the right to repub- Editor, The American Economic Review Betsey Stevenson, University of Michigan lish, post on servers, redistribute to lists, and use ESTHER DUFLO, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Ebonya Washington, Yale University any component of this work in other works. For others to do so requires prior specific permis- Editor, The American Economic Review: Insights Catherine Wolfram, University of California sion and/or a fee. Per missions may be requested AMY FINKELSTEIN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Luigi Zingales, University of Chicago from the American Economic Association, Editor, The Journal of Economic Literature 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN 37203; STEVEN N. DURLAUF, University of Wisconsin e-mail: [email protected]. Managing Editor Editor, The Journal of Economic Perspectives Timothy Taylor ENRICO MORETTI, University of California at Berkeley Assistant Editor Editor, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics Ann Norman ALEXANDRE MAS, Princeton University Editor, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy MATTHEW D. SHAPIRO, University of Michigan Editorial offices: Editor, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Journal of Economic Perspectives SIMON GILCHRIST, New York University American Economic Association Publications Editor, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics 2403 Sidney St., #260 JOHANNES HÖRNER, Yale University Pittsburgh, PA 15203 Secretary-Treasurer email: [email protected] PETER L. ROUSSEAU, Vanderbilt University OTHER OFFICERS Editor, Resources for Economists The Journal of Economic Perspectives gratefully acknowledges the support of Macalester College. WILLLIAM GOFFE, Pennsylvania State University ® Registered in the US Patent and Trademark Office ( ). Director of AEA Publication Services Copyright © 2018 by the American Economic Association; All Rights Reserved. JANE EMILY VOROS, Pittsburgh Composed by American Economic Association Publications, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA. Printed by LSC Communications, Owensville, Missouri, 65066, USA. Managing Director of EconLit Product Design and Content No responsibility for the views expressed by the authors in this journal is assumed by the editors or by STEVEN L. HUSTED, University of Pittsburgh the American Economic Association. Counsel THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES (ISSN 0895-3309), Spring 2018, Vol. 32, No. 2. The JEP TERRY CALVANI, Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer LLP is published quarterly (February, May, August, November) by the American Economic Association, 2014 Washington, DC Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN 37203-2418. Annual dues for regular membership are $20.00, $30.00, or $40.00 depending on income; for an additional $15.00, you can receive this journal in print. E-reader ADMINISTRATORS versions are free. For details and further information on the AEA go to https://www.aeaweb.org/. Director of Finance and Administration Periodicals postage paid at Nashville, TN, and at additional mailing offices. BARBARA H. FISER POSTMASTER: Send address changes to the Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Convention Manager Nashville, TN 37203. Printed in the U.S.A. GWYN LOFTIS The Journal of Economic Perspectives Contents Volume 32 • Number 2 • Spring 2018 Symposia Does the US Really Gain from Trade? Arnaud Costinot and Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, “The US Gains From Trade: Valuation Using the Demand for Foreign Factor Services” . 3 Robert C . Feenstra, “Alternative Sources of the Gains from International Trade: Variety, Creative Destruction, and Markups” . 25 Teresa C . Fort, Justin R . Pierce, and Peter K . Schott, “New Perspectives on the Decline of US Manufacturing Employment” . 47 Dani Rodrik, “What Do Trade Agreements Really Do?” . 73 Risk in Economics and Psychology Ted O’Donoghue and Jason Somerville, “Modeling Risk Aversion in Economics” . 91 Thomas Dohmen, Armin Falk, David Huffman, and Uwe Sunde, “On the Relationship between Cognitive Ability and Risk Preference” . 115 Hannah Schildberg-Hörisch, “Are Risk Preferences Stable?” . 135 Rui Mata, Renato Frey, David Richter, Jürgen Schupp, and Ralph Hertwig, “Risk Preference: A View from Psychology” . 155 Articles Matthew Weinzierl, “Space, the Final Economic Frontier” . 173 Daron Acemoglu, “Dave Donaldson: Winner of the 2017 Clark Medal” . 193 Features Bruce Elmslie, “Retrospectives: Adam Smith’s Discovery of Trade Gravity” . 209 Timothy Taylor, “Recommendations for Further Reading” . 223 “Do You Use JEP Articles in Your Classroom? One More Chance to Share!” . 231 Statement of Purpose The Journal of Economic Perspectives attempts to fill a gap between the general interest press and most other academic economics journals . The journal aims to publish articles that will serve several goals: to synthesize and integrate lessons learned from active lines of economic research; to provide economic analysis of public policy issues; to encourage cross-fertilization of ideas among the fields of economics; to offer readers an accessible source for state-of-the-art economic thinking; to suggest directions for future research; to provide insights and read- ings for classroom use; and to address issues relating to the economics profession . Articles appearing in the journal are normally solicited by the editors and associate editors . Proposals for topics and authors should be directed to the journal office, at the address inside the front cover . Policy on Data Availability It is the policy of the Journal of Economic Perspectives to publish papers only if the data used in the analysis are clearly and precisely documented and are readily available to any researcher for purposes of replication . Details of the computations
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