Reliability, Validity, and Utility of Criminal Profiling Typologies

Home , Criminal psychology, Offender profiling

Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology, 2002, Volume 17, Number 1

Maurice Godwin Methodist College

Criminal profiling has received attention from the academic community and from the en- tertainment world since the FBI first published accounts of its profiling principles. It be- came popular through films such as Silence of the Lambs and the X-Files making headlines. However, beyond the victims’ pin pictures that help create the sensationalism in these resources, there have been few, if any, reliable criminal profiling classification designs. This work examines deductive and inductive profiling models that classify crime scene activity including the first systematic review of the FBI’s organized and disorganized profiling typology. The paper concludes with a discussion about how to turn profiling from an art too more a scientific process through the use of investigative process management research.

INCE ITS EMERGENCE, criminal major flaw of current profiling methods profiling has been given several is that most all profiles emphasizes the S different terms to describe the various psychological functions that technique. For instance, psychological murder has for the offender not what va- profiling, criminal profiling, criminal rieties of action the murder actually con- personality profiling, criminal investiga- sists of. Consequently, these profiles tive analysis, and behavioral evidence make little distinction between the overt profiling. Regardless, though, of the de- crime scene behaviors as they occur in scriptive label applied, profiling as inves- murders and the psycho-dynamic proc- tigative tool today is entirely intuitive esses that are taken to account for or based and represents a less than educated produce that behavior. Hence, there is attempt to provide law enforcement little attempt by profilers to differentiate agencies with detailed information about between aspects of the offender’s moti- the behavior of an unknown individual vations and life-style from aspects of his who has committed a crime. For exam- offending behavior. Another problem, ple, most published accounts of profiling, which exist with profiling, is many pro- which details the methods employed by filers view profiling as ‘crime scene re- various individuals, have tended to take construction’ and completely ignore the form of semi-autobiographical books aspects of psychology. and journalistic articles rather than sys- Most published accounts that claim tematic academic work and, hence, are ‘new’ or ‘recent’ findings in criminal difficult to evaluate from an accuracy or profiling are often a part of the cultural scientific point of view. As such, the one baggage past down over the years and

1 Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology, Volume 17, Number 1 are fraught with frailties of human think- ence Unit (BSU) (Ressler, 1988). In ing such as confirmation bias and selec- 1995 a restructuring phase combined the tive thinking (Holmes, 1996; Turvey, BSU, Violent Criminal Apprehension 1999). Current profiling attempts are Program (VICAP), and the National predominantly anchored in opinions Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime based on what has already been written into one unit, calling it the Critical Inci- or told in the past. On the one hand, dent Response Group (CIRG) (Douglas some profilers claim that patterns associ- & Olshaker, 1995). ated with serial offending occur as a re- The primary purpose of the serial sult of recognizable mental illness or murder project was to use interviews mental disorder in the offender and these with convicted killers as a basis for con- disorders directly relate to and can be structing future classifications, which classified using a personality theory. On then could be used to aid police investi- the other hand some profilers attempt to gations. A series of interviews with 36 guess at the motive of an offender based incarcerated offenders, of whom 25 were on his crime scene actions and refer to defined as serial murderers (i.e., the kill- this process as behavioral profiling. ing of three or more individuals over However, profiling from a true behav- time) took place between 1979 and 1983 ioral approach considers the individual in the USA. The interviews were guided differences between offenses (not of- by an unstructured checklist of questions. fenders) by looking at crime scene ac- Prior to the interviews, data sources on tions that can be observed rather than each offender and his crimes were ob- guess at the individual’s internal work- tained by reviewing crime scene photos, ings or motivations for the crime. physical and psychiatric reports. How- ever, no detailed analysis of this material The Origins of the FBI‘s Criminal has ever been presented. Instead, a sim- Profiling Project ple dichotomy was claimed to emerge from the project by which offenders were The FBI’s initial project on serial classified either as organized or disor- murder began in 1978 (Ressler, Burgess, ganized. The assignment of the offend- & Douglas, 1988). The impetus for the ers to either the organized or project was to conduct personal inter- disorganized category was based on the views with serial murderers about their appearance of the victims’ attire or nu- crimes in order to find out how they were dity, exposure to the victims’ sexual successful at avoiding capture. The FBI parts, insertion of foreign objects in body serial murder project was given added cavities, or evidence of sexual inter- attention in Washington, DC in the early course. 1980s due to public outcry of the murder The FBI posits in the literature that of a six year old boy in Florida by a se- the organized and disorganized scheme rial murdered (Ressler, et al., 1988). was developed to classify a sub-group of Therefore, due to public pressure, the serial murderers, that is, sex-related mur- FBI serial murder project was brought to ders, where motive was often lacking) the forefront and given the necessary US (Ressler, 1988). This also can be inter- Government funding, which eventually preted that where the murderer is emo- lead to a unit being established in Quan- tional and no organization can be tico, Virginia called the Behavioral Sci- deciphered from his actions at the crime

2 Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology, Volume 17, Number 1 scene, there is no motive. Because of the The Organized Profiling Typology apparent lack of motive, FBI profilers decided to look for evidence of planning, According to the FBI classification, irrationality, or some form of discord at the organized (nonsocial serial murderers the crime scene to determine whether the are generally assumed to be cunning, and offender was organized or disorganized. spend vast amounts of time planning The organized and disorganized typology murders, whether consciously or not, and is then used to classify the murderer’s this behavior is reflected at their crime personality, depending on the category of scenes. Another assumption is that the the crime scene. serial murderer’s planning is expressed There are weaknesses in the organ- in his preoccupation with, and constant ized and disorganized dichotomy. For need for control (Brown, 1991). FBI pro- example, there is no explanation in the filers claim that crime scenes tend to literature of the differences between the echo this aspect through the condition of organized and disorganized serial mur- the body, the body’s state of dress, selec- derer. Rather the organized and disor- tion of restraints and weapons, body dis- ganized dichotomy seems to describe the posal sites, and method of approach different levels of aggression in serial (Hickey, 1997; Douglas & Burgess, murderers, although no literature source 1986). acknowledges this. The organized serial murderer is de- The difference in organized and disor- scribed as one who is positively antiso- ganized crime scenes are usually ex- cial but often more gregarious, quite plained in the form of a psycho-dynamic normal on the outside, maintaining nor- drive; the dynamic drives are: 10 re- mal relationships. He will be more for- venge, and 2) sadistic (Ressler, 1988; ensically aware, mobile, creative, Lester, 1995). The focus of these drives adaptive; he often has a certain preferred is seen in terms of lasting urges, formed type of victim. Although victims’ bodies through early life experiences. These ex- are normally concealed, he will tease the periences are organized especially police by leaving some bodies open to around conflict. view. The FBI posit that the organized type serial murderer is out to shock and The differences between the two offend the community and taunt the po- types appear to originate from several lice because he fees so much more pow- traditional theories of aggression and erful than them. The offender will likely personality disorders. For example, it is be a police buff and usually collects alleged that the organized offender has items relating to law enforcement the ability to maintain some control over (Hickey, 1997). his aggressive behavior, while the disor- In the FBI study, imprisoned serial ganized offender is unable to maintain murderers classified as organized were control. There is, however, a third type, assumed to have had an angry frame of the mixed offender, which is rarely dis- mind at the time of the murder, but their cussed in the literature. The mixed type behavior was calm and relaxed during was added to accommodate offenders the commission of the crime (Ressler, who did not fit into either the organized 1988). The organized crime scene is de- or disorganized category (Ressler, Doug- scribed as having a “semblance of order las, Burgess, & Burgess, 1992). existing prior to, during, and after the

3 Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology, Volume 17, Number 1 murder. It is suggested that the murder is tration, hostility, anger, agitation, and planned, and the offender is likely to excitement, all of which indicate that the used a con or ploy to lure his victims to crime is emotional, and revenge seems to their deaths. For example, the individual be the primary drive. In other words, the may strike up a conversation or pseudo- FBI claims that serial murderers who kill relationship with his victims. For organ- in an emotional rage have control of their ized killers, who consciously plan their behavior at the crime scene (FBI Law murders, selection of the victim is be- Enforcement Bulletin, 1985). lieved to be a first step in acting out their The revenge (nonsocial) drive expla- fantasy; victims are thought to be chosen nation for repetitive murder is that it is because of their symbolic similarity to the offender’s unconscious effort to dis- someone in the killer’s life or because of charge aggressive drives toward another meanings the offender assigned to par- person who represents a significant other ticular actions, such as hitch hiking. from past life experience. The act sup- However, the FBI provides no empirical posedly originates from the Oedipal research supporting its theory that serial trauma of a seductive or rejecting mother murderers target specific victims for psy- and a punitive or absent father. The chological reasons. ego’s defenses cannot prevent the action, The organized offender is seen as one but can direct it towards an alternative who usually remembers his thoughts object, the victim. The rationale of the prior to each murder and improves on his revenge formulation is that the relation- planning with each subsequent killing. ship between a child’s parents sets the The offenders’ planning and control over pattern not only for sexual and aggres- their victims are noted by the use of re- sive behavior, but for general standards straints, for example, ropes, chains, of expressing and prohibiting all sorts of handcuffs, belts, or clothing. The of- behavior. fender is most likely to bring a weapon The drawback to the aggressive re- to the crime scene and take it with him venge drive theory is it assumes that con- when he leaves. The organized serial flicts invariably express themselves in murderer is also forensically aware, and Oedipal language. This may be true for rarely leaves incriminating evidence be- some serial murderers, for example, hind. The FBI suggests that the organ- David Berkowitz, Son of Sam, who shot ized serial murderer is more likely to couples in their cars apparently as stand- rape and torture victims prior to death, ins for the biological parents who had while the disorganized types are more abandoned him. The revenge focus for likely to mutilate and perform post- serial murder may have some validity, mortem sexual acts. However, these as- however, the Oedipal theory neither ex- sumptions have been challenged by sev- plains why some serial murderers need to eral researchers (Meloy, 1997; Hickey, seek revenge repeatedly, nor why con- 1991). victed killers do not necessarily demon- The organized typology has several strate weakened defenses in other aspects shortcomings. The FBI suggests that or- of their lives. It seems reasonable to ganized serial murderers kill to act out conclude that an individual who is so tor- their “control and dominance,” while at tured by Oedipal thoughts that he acts the same time they maintain that prior to them out is going to reveal similar be- the murder, the offender is feeling frus- havior in other areas of his life. Clearly,

4 Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology, Volume 17, Number 1 the revenge focus seems too broad an ers’ self-reports. Consequently, no explanation for describing individual dif- exploration of the different emphases ferences in serial murderers. murder has for different offenders is considered. The Disorganized Profiling Typology Traditionally, the sadistic aggressive explanation suggests that the offender Freud concluded in his Theory of derives sexual gratification by the inflic- Sexuality that with such perversions as tion of pain and degradation on living sexual murder and necrophilia, “It is im- victims. It is argued in the serial murder possible to deny that in their case a piece literature that the etiology for serial mur- of mental work has been performed der is sexual gratification (Dietz, 1985). which, in spite of its horrifying result, is The sexual attack is posited to be a way the equivalent of an idealization of the to degrade, subjugate, and ultimately de- instinct.” Freud’s statement seems to set stroy the victim. In the sadistic drive the direction for the classification of the formulation, it is postulated that the of- serial murderer’s aggression as a sexual fender kills out of sexual frustration be- perversion, and many theorists have ar- cause of a specific need for an object he gued that the disorganized murderer kills can humiliate and torture. Some re- primarily for sexual gratification (FBI searchers also claim that sadism reas- Law Enforcement Bulletin, 1985). sures the individual of his power by The asocial (disorganized) serial mur- easing his worries about, for example, derer is described as a liner, withdrawn, castration. However, Storr (1972) dis- and more cowardly in his crimes counts the sadistic sexual gratification (Holmes & Holmes, 1996). His crimes theory. Rather, he suggests that the mur- are often committed without a plan, and der has less to do with sex and more to the victims are usually attacked in a blitz do with pseudo-sexual activity, power style. Some researchers suggest that the and control. Fox and Levin (1994) con- disorganized crime scene reflects a serial cur with Storr’s view, and point out that murderer whose motivation that the dis- domination is a crucial element in serial organized crime scene reflects a serial crimes with a sexual theme. Another murderer whose motivation consists of problem is the traditional definition of uncontrolled sexual drives, reflected by sadism. For example, no consideration the murderer’s inability to control impul- has been given to the offender’s perspec- sive behavior or change his action in tive – that during the course of a violent consideration of others.” attack, determining when sadistic gratifi- Other researchers suggest that the cation begins or ends is problematic. It psychological gain for the disorganized may be more logical to consider violent serial murder is sexual exploitation of the behavior as a continuum of actions. victim in the form of torture. However, The disorganized offender is also de- the term “torture” was not defined by the scribe as one who shows no forensic researcher. The literature asserts that a awareness, often leaving fingerprints, sadistic sexual drive is the impetus for bloody footprints, semen, and evidence the disorganized serial murderer) of little or no preparation for the murder (Ressler, 1988; Hickey, 1997; Hickey, by selecting weapons of opportunity. 1991). What is derived form this per- Ressler and his colleagues point out that spective are biases gleaned from offend- the disorganized serial murderer is not

5 Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology, Volume 17, Number 1 likely to use restraints because the victim sive aggression. The actions of blunt is killed immediately) (Ressler, 1988). trauma to the face and blitz attack are In the disorganized type murder, the vic- embedded with a primary focus, sexual tim is depersonalized by cuts and stab gratification. The combination of these wounds to specific areas of the body. modes of behavior is commonly cited as Other examples of depersonalization and indicative of the organized serial mur- sadistic acts on victims occur in the form derer, however, actually they appear to of inserted objects, which the FBI sug- represent disorganization rather than or- gests is a form of regressive necrophilia ganization. The hypothesis that serial and sexual substitution rather than an act murderer who perform mutilations, post- of mutilation or control (Ressler, 1988; mortem sex, and cannibalism are also Douglas and Burgess, 1986). Additional disorganized is certainly open to ques- sexual exploits may include features such tion. as mutilation, disembowelment, amputa- In addition to these discrepancies, tion, and vampirism. there are two further shortcomings in the The literature suggests that victims of organized and disorganized offender ty- the disorganized killer typically show pology. First, the behaviors that describe signs of overkill and excessive blunt each type are not mutually exclusive; a trauma to the facial area, which is variety of combinations could occur in thought to indicate that the victim knew any given murder scene. This is, of her attacker) (Ressler, 1988). Also, the course, a weakness in all the murder lack of organization is often noted by the classification schemes discussed in this offender making no attempt to conceal chapter. Second, there is no discussion the victim’s body, leaving her in the of why serial murderers have the need to same location in which she was killed. repeatedly murder. Both the revenge and sadistic drives seem too vague. The or- Discrepancies in the Organized and ganized and disorganized scheme also Disorganized Dichotomy provides no reason why serial murders select some victims and pass up others. If we look closely at the FBI’s de- The organized and disorganized labels scription of organized and disorganized appear to be clinical assessments, similar types, there appear to be some discrepan- to those found in the DSM-III-R. Hare cies in their “narrative descriptions” argues that the antisocial personality dis- when compared to the respective “crime order criteria in DSM-III-R is primarily a scene checklist”. The narrative version measurement of antisocial and criminal of the disorganized type actually seems behavior and does not measure the affec- to contain a number of organized types tive and interpersonal characteristics of of behaviors such as post-mortem sexual the personality disorder commonly asso- activity, revising the crime scene, and the ciated with individuals displaying psy- use of gloves would appear to indicated chopathological behavior (Hare, 1991). cognitive planning and an instrumental focus. However, the checklist, which is Reliability of the FBI’s Original Profil- the list of descriptive words that are as- ing Sample signed to each crime scene type (cf. Ressler et.al., 1988), seems to reflect In the FBI project, 36 killers were in- more a mixture of revenge and expres- terviewed, 25 of whom were classified as

6 Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology, Volume 17, Number 1 serial murderers and 11 single or double personal history background and ele- killers. A sub-sample of the 36 offenders ments of how the crime was committed. were classified as disorganized and or- However, research by Lewis, Pincus, ganized (Ressler et al., 1988; Lester, Bard, Richardson, Prichep, Feldman, and 1995; FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, Yeager (1988) in a study that required 1985). Thirty-three of the offenders who independent confirmation of reports at participated in the interviews were white. the time of the incident), found that con- The offenders who agreed to participate victed killers tend to under-report histo- in the final project were reportedly moti- ries of trauma and deny symptoms of vated by various reasons, such as making psychiatric disorders. For example, dur- restitution to victims, to obtain attention, ing the interviews with serial murderers, or to gain some legal advantage. For ex- the FBI researchers ultimately found the ample, some of the offenders interviewed disorganized murderer’s suspicions were “had not completely exhausted their legal not aroused about whether retrospective appeals prior to the interviews” (Ault & accounts of the offenders’ fantasy state Reese, 1984). Furthermore, the offend- prior to the murders were accurate. ers who refused ot be interviewed were In a later study, Prentky and his col- predominately white, intellectual, and leagues examined the role of fantasy in motivated not to participated on advice serial sexual murder by comparing 25 from their attorneys, and were most serial sexual murderers taken from the likely to have organized behavior, which FBI sample with 17 single-victim sexual could account for the higher ratio of dis- killers (Prentky, Burgess, Rokous, Lee, organized to organized murderers. Ressler, & Douglas, 1989). The study Rather than interviewing a representative found that the serial group differed sig- sample of killers, the FBI examined a nificantly form the single homicide small, select set of incarcerated offender group on measures of intrusive fantasy. who were interested in volunteering. However, the Prentky study has several Thus, the FBI sample must be viewed as weaknesses. First, part of the data sam- biased, although exactly how much is ple was borrowed form the FBI serial difficult to tell without a description of murder project, which, as discussed ear- the population the subjects were drawn lier, has inherent biases. Similar to the form to compare with the sample. FBI’s studies, the Prentky study is so embedded with a mixture of clinical mo- Inferring Behavior from Fantasy in tivational assumptions that no clear dif- Profiling ferences are made between fantasy and One theme that dominates profiling planning. Shapiro (1981) cautioned that typologies is the role that fantasy has in historical explanations of pathology are facilitation of the murders. Ressler and simply too narrow a base from which to his colleagues argue that “sexual murder derive the complicated forms of sadism. is based on fantasy” (Ressler et al., Second, the Prentky study used a control 1988). Several methodological con- group, single sexual murderers, but the straints become relevant when inferring study methods were not matched to those motivation through fantasy, for example used with the serial murderer group. the distortion most likely found in self- This is rather vexing because there were report studies. The FBI’s serial murder no interviews of the offenders in the sin- classification relies on self-reports of gle-victim group. Instead, data were

7 Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology, Volume 17, Number 1 taken from police archives. DeHart and demonstrated a range of responses from Mahoney (1994) point out that research- psychosis through neurosis. This sug- ers who choose to distinguish between gests that subtle yet crucial distinctions one-victim murderers and serial murder- may be overlooked when an interviewer ers run into ambiguities in scientific and inquires only whether or not the of- legal classification of serial murderers, fender’s mother was dominant in his which may diminish the validity of the childhood. Lion (1991) further sug- data. Third, the Prentky study compared gested that inferring fantasy from violent a distinct sub-group of serial sex murder- crimes such as rape and serial murder is ers with single-victim murderers who, problematic. Gresswell and Hollin over time, may not be likely to have the (1994) point out that little research out opportunity to exhibit bizarre sexual be- that little research has been published on haviors as the serial. Finally, the study how pervasive sadistic fantasy is within used fantasy to distinguish between the the general population or on the precise types of offenders, which is highly sus- relationship between fantasy offending ceptible to subjective interpretation. and real offending. Further complications come to light when using inferred motives and fanta- Validity of the FBI’s Profiling Model sies to develop a classification model of serial murder. Serial murderers often al- Using a five-stage development crite- ter or exaggerate their claims for egocen- ria, Bush and Cavanaugh (1986) exam- tric or status reasons. The FBI ined two classification models of serial classification model of serial murder is murder proposed by the FBI. They de- constructed under the assumption that termined that serial murder typologies normal people do not have sadistic fanta- generally fall into two stages: 1) un- sies, or if they do, the fantasies are dif- founded statements not supported by data ferent from those experienced by serial collection, and 2) unevaluated case re- murderers. One assumption is that ports without rigorous evaluation of childhood fantasy is usually positive, and other contributory factors. The remaining thus serial murderers’ childhood fanta- stages of the criteria were 3) scientific sies are oddly violent. Another assump- case reports of individuals or small tion is that serial murderers show an groups, 4) select population studies of unusually early onset of fetishistic be- particular sub-groups, and 5) epidemiol- havior, when in fact the literature sug- ogical studies of larger random samples gests that fetishism begins to develop in or a significant proportion of a small children somewhere around the age of population. five (Caputi, 1987). Busch and Cavanaugh (1986) con- Fantasy is described in the FBI moti- cluded that serial murder typologies were vational model as a linear relationship weak because they were descriptive and between a dominant mother, abusive per- were not generalizable to the full popula- sonality, and arousal levels (Burgess, tion of serial murderers at large. They Hartman, Ressler, Douglas, & McCor- also found that the two studies depended mack, 1986). However, Terr (1991) on ad hoc data, which tended to confirm found that abused children could become the assumptions of the researchers. either aggressive or withdrawn, and chil- Busch and Cavanaugh (1986) further ar- dren with non-abusive backgrounds gued that the motivational model for se-

8 Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology, Volume 17, Number 1 rial murder proposed by the FBI lacked how would a police investigator classify statistical support, and warn that conclu- an organized serial murderer with good sions drawn from the crime scene vari- intelligence, sexual competence, and ables inevitably produced a bias favoring who is geographically mobile (car) who confirmation of the assumptions. Canter commits a spontaneous, depersonalizing (1994) also questioned the motivational murder in which the victim’s body is left based profiling typologies by pointing at the crime scene, which are characteris- out that the offender’s actions are known tics of a disorganized killer? In this ex- to police, but not his motivation. ample the profilers assume that the motivational factor that caused the vio- Lack of Empirical Operational Defini- lent criminal behavior will be indicated tions by study of the patterns in the external characteristics of violent offenders. A continual source of conflict in the Their assumption is that the antecedent FBI’s serial murder model is the lack of factor for a series of murder is due to defined concepts in the organized and both an emotional outburst and some in- disorganized dichotomy. An example of trinsically abnormal personality in the lack of defined concept is, in the FBI offender, and that the offender’s person- project, fantasy which positively coded if ality will be reflected in the way he car- the daydreaming content included inten- ries out his crimes. This perspective sees tional infliction of harm in a sadistic or motivation and personality as the same sexually violent way (Prentky et al., process, and neglects that emphasis that 1989). The problems with this form of each explanation may have for different deductive reasoning are demonstrated in individuals. one serial murder case where, on one hand, the FBI profilers interpreted the Utility of the FBI Profiling Model bizarre positioning of a victim’s body to represent a Hebrew letter as evidence of The theories on which the FBI serial planning rather than fantasy, and on the murder classification is built are rather other hand, they interpreted the refine- perplexing. First, there is the clinical ment in techniques used to immobilize classification which sees difference in victims as evidence of fantasy rather than offenders rather than crimes. These clas- planning. Katz (1988) points out that sification typologies seem to paint a pic- any model of serial murder, which ac- ture of the offenders’ mental illnesses, cepts blanket statements about motiva- rather than trying to distinguish between tion and does not carefully examine their crimes (Burgess et al., 1986). Here, victim/offender interaction of behavioral motive is thought to be some form of an- sequences in the actual murder may be ger or rage towards society or a targeted misleading. group of individuals, and the offender harbors his emotional reactions to the False Dichotomization of Variables point where they explode. These trends may be explained in terms of displace- A typical example of false dichotomiza- ment of anger from other targets, or the tion of variables and the lack of mutually feeling of lack of power. Stephenson exclusive concepts in the FBI typology is (1992) has reviewed such displacement demonstrated in the following scenario: theories as general explanations of

9 Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology, Volume 17, Number 1 criminal behavior and found little evi- serve your actions” (Hilgard, 1977). dence for them. Second, there is the mo- Consequently, it seems more reasonable tivational classification that suggests that to consider crime scene actions as ex- the internal forces or predispositions that periences of behavior rather than particu- drive a sadistic killer to murder repeat- lar manifestations of intrinsic edly are mental representations of vicari- psychopathology. ous gratifications. In other words, the The behavior approach to classifying murderer, who has no conscious emo- serial murderers’ actions suggests that an tion, is driven by thoughts and fantasies. individual’s actions are the result of in- This perspective is usually derived by teraction between offender’s characteris- relying on self-reports of serial murder- tics and the social and physical ers to classify the offender’s mental state, conditions of the situation. An inductive and in turn to classify crime scenes. behavioral approach to profiling sees be- However, the FBI profilers suggest that havior as mostly being consistent across the sadistic serial killer is influenced by a a number of situations rather than spe- continual fantasy. The problem with this cific to a particular environmental con- form of deductive reasoning is that mo- text. By employing the inductive tives are inferred and are assumed to be behavioral approach, trends in how of- related to intrinsic thoughts and mental fenders behave from one crime to the illness, and the exploration of behavior is next can be explored. Researchers often totally neglected. assume that personality traits are consis- Not surprisingly, in a recent study of tent, so that an offender can be character- different profiling approaches, Wilson ized according to enduring personality and his colleagues (1997) examined the characteristics. However, individuals are validity and utility of diagnostic evalua- not uniformly rewarded across different tions and profiles developed from crime crimes. The offender may learn to dis- scene analysis (cf Ressler et al., 1988). criminate between contexts win which Wilson and his colleagues (1997) con- certain behavior is appropriate and those cluded that the “majority of profilers are in which it is not. Rather, aggressive ac- mildly to severely flawed.” Other ap- tions are differentially rewarded, and proaches to profiling appear to be not learned discriminations determine the much better. Given this, it might be situations in which the individual will more productive to adopt an approach display a particular behavior. This sug- that focuses more on behavior such as gests that diverse behaviors do not nec- investigative psychology. essarily reflect variations of the same underlying motive but often are discrete The Personality to Behavior Confusion responses to different situations. There- in Profiling fore, a behavioral classification model of serial murder may be more representative The actions of serial murderers from a of serial murders at large than a model behavioral approach looks at behaviors developed from personality traits. that can be observed rather than the individual’s internal workings. As John B. Holmes’ Profiling Approach Watson argued many years ago, “only Other researchers have developed individuals can observe their perceptions profiling typologies (Dietz, Hazelwood, and feelings, but someone else can ob- & Warren, 1990; Keppel & Walter,

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1999; Holmes & Holmes, 1996). For Hickey’s Profiling Approach example, Holmes and Holmes (1996) classified serial murderers into four Hickey’s study on serial murderers types: and their victims is base on data col- 1. Visionary serial murderers, lected on 203 serial murderers of 34 fe- whose impetus to kill is pro- males and 169 males (Hickey, 1991; pelled by voices they hear or Hickey, 1997). The dates of the crimes visions they see range from 1795 to 1988. Hickey’s research focused mainly on victims of se- 2. Mission serial murderers, rial murderers rather than the offenders’ whose impetus to kill is a crime scene behaviors (Hickey, 1997). need on a conscious level to Hickey’s study on serial murder is con- eradicate a certain group of sidered to be one of the most thorough in people the literature and could be robust for developing profiles related to victimology. 3. Hedonistic serial murderers, Hickey developed a taxonomy of mo- who are labeled lust or thrill tives from his data, and he states that se- murderers, and whose crimes rial murderers’ motives appear to focus have sexual overtones to them on “financial security, revenge, enjoy- ment, and sexual stimulation.” However, 4. Power/control serial murder- there are several problems with Hickey’s ers, whose impetus to kill are motive types. It is likely that most re- driven by a need for sexual searchers would exclude many of the gratification and the complete females who could be labeled as “black domination of their victims. widows,” meaning that they usually killed for profit (Hickey, 1997). Of the The Holmes’ classification scheme 34 female murderers in his study, 53% appears to be a type of story line offering killed for profit sometimes, while in 41% reasons serial murderers murder rather the motive for murder was entirely fi- than an empirical model distinguishing nancial profit. It is interesting to note between offenders and offenses. that Hickey did not rely on self-reports Gresswell and Hollin point out three but rather data obtained from case files. weaknesses in the Holmes’ serial murder The data on male serial murders was typology: 1) the classifications are not less than forthcoming in Hickey’s study. mutually exclusive, 2) the classifications He did not discuss many behavioral are not exhaustive, and 3) the classifica- characteristics, and when they were high- tions fail to pick up interactions between lighted, they were used descriptively. the murderer, the victims, and the envi- Consequently, no attempt made to em- ronment, and do not appear to be flexible pirically explore the relationship between enough to accommodate a serial mur- serial murderers who murdered out of derer who may have different motives revenge and the distances they traveled for different victims or changing motives to commit their crimes, and although he over time. Another weakness in the did discuss differences in spatial behav- Holmes’ classification model is that the ior, it was not in relation to crime scenes data is not provided on which the conclu- actions. sions are based.

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Despite the shortcoming in Hickey’s crimes. The study found that 93% of the study, he does provide a useful descrip- sexual sadists were organized, and sug- tive model on predisposition factors and gested that fantasy was the motivational facilitators that could useful in profiling factor behind the murders. the serial murderer. He refers to his The ratio of organized to disorganized model as the “trauma-control model for offenders in the Dietz study was consid- serial murder” (Hickey, 1997). Hickey erably higher than in the FBI’s project. suggests that the triggering mechanism in The high proportion of organized offend- the serial murderer may be some form of ers was probably due to biases in the trauma in which the individual is unable sample; that is, a distinct sub-group of to cope with the stress of traumatic offenders, sexual sadistic murderers who events. Hickey points out that individu- were most likely to have organized be- als deal with traumatic events differently, havior. Another form of bias in the Dietz and some deal with past trauma in a study was the combination of a small more destructive framework. sample size with a priori diagnosis sup- One interesting finding in Hickey’s positions mad about the offenders, which study was, although no exact percentage appear to confirm the assumptions of the figure is given, he found that serial mur- researchers. These weaknesses make the derers who were serial rapists were also Dietz study weak for profiling purposes. abused. In a similar vein, Hazelwood and Warren (1989) reported in their Keppel and Walter’s Profiling Ap- study on 41 serial rapists that 76% had proach been sexually abused as children. This finding is interesting because it could Keppel and Walter (1999) proposed a give an indication that a common feature theoretical classification by which sexual in a serial murderer’s backgrounds could murderers’ motivations could be pro- be some form of a traumatic experience. filed. They described four types of sexual murderers: 1) power-assertive rape- The Dietz Profiling Approach murderer, 2) power-reassurance rape- murderer, 3) anger-retaliatory rape- Dietz and his colleagues made a de- murderer, and 4) anger-excitation rape- scriptive study of 30 sexually sadistic murderer (Keppel & Walter (1999). The serial murderers (1990). The purpose of power-assertive rape-murder is described their study was to gather information on as a series of acts which the rape is personal characteristics and crime scene planned and the murder is an unplanned details common among such murderers. response of increasing aggression to en- Seventeen of the subjects were classified sure control of the victim. The actions as serial murderers, five of who were are characterized by forceful aggression originally in the FBI’s sample population and intimidation. In the power-assertive (Dietz, Hazelwood, and Warren, 1990). rape-murder, Keppel and Walter suggests The remaining subjects were drawn from that the homicide becomes one of main- a pool of cases maintained in the FBI’s taining control over a vulnerable victim, National Center for the Analysis of Vio- and the killer demonstrates mastery of lent Crime. The data used were archival the situation by taking charge by the use documents (i.e., self-reports and police of an assertive image and dominating records) describing the offenders’ violence. The power-reassurance rape-

12 Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology, Volume 17, Number 1 murderer is described as rape that is it occurs in murder and the psycho- planned followed by an unplanned over- dynamic processes that produce that be- kill of the victim. In this type of sexual havior. There is little attempt to differ- murder, the authors suggest that the killer entiate aspects of the offender’s is motivated by an “idealized seduction motivations and life-style from aspects of and conquest fantasy.” Keppel and Wal- his offending behavior. Any attempt to ter point out that this type of killer ex- understand the actions that occur in mur- presses his sexual competence through der offenses require the classification of seduction and when that fails, the murder offense behavior as distinct from classi- allows the offender to reintroduce the fication of the offender in either psycho- fantasy system. The anger-retaliatory logical or sociological terms. rap-murder is where the rape is planned There are also several unique weak- and the initial murder involves overkill. nesses to the Keppel and Walter sexual This type of offender murders for pur- murder typology originally not found in poses of retaliation, getting revenge on the rape classification scheme. The pro- women due to poor past relationships filing typology gives no consideration for with women. The final type of sexual an offender who commits a completely assault and murder are planned for the random crime. In each of the sexual purpose of inflicting pain and terror on murder types, either the rape or murder is the victim for personal gratification. planned. In an attempt to validate their This type of murder involves sadistic sexual murder typology, Keppel and acts precipitated by highly specialized Walter surveyed a group of incarcerated fantasies. murderers at the Michigan State Peniten- Keppel and Walter appear to have tiary who were given the four classifica- borrowed their profiling typology from a tion types and asked to describe which previous theoretical rape classification type fit them best. This process could scheme first proposed by Cohen in 1971, hardly be considered scientific. In sum, which was revised later by Groth et al. in Keppel and Walter’s sexual murder types 1977, and again modified by Hazelwood are described and then illustrated by case and Burgess in 1987. Some of the weak- studies, and the differences between nesses in the original rape classification them are briefly discussed. The lack of scheme are still prevalent in the Keppel data does not allow for exploration of the and Walter model. The caveat of over- general applicability of the proposed lapping behaviors is problematic in the classifications, because no background Keppel and Walter sexual murder model, information on samples or population has and there is no discussion of any system- been published. Hence, these are gener- atic analysis from which the described alized classification in need of empirical offender types may be validated. As a refinement before they can be considered result, the perspective derived from the robust for criminal profiling. Keppel and Walter typology emphasizes the various psychological functions that Heuristics and Biases in Profiling De- sexual murder has for the offender, not cision Making the actual varieties of action the murder As previously discussed, the reliabil- consists of. Consequently, the classifica- ity, validity and utility of deductive pro- tion scheme makes little distinction be- files generally offered to police tween the overt crime scene behavior as investigations are weak and have met

13 Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology, Volume 17, Number 1 with continual criticisms. For example, that it is easier to deal with cognitively. Godwin (1978) argues that profilers are In other words, for profilers it is much playing a blindman's bluff, groping in all easier to see how a piece of information directions in the hope of touching a supports a position than it is to see how it sleeve. Levin and Fox (1985) point out might count against the position. This that, offender profiling as we know it form of confirmatory thinking is preva- today is vague and general and thus basi- lent in criminal profiling and often re- cally useless in identifying a killer. sults in misleading information and Blackburn (1993) echoes similar con- wasted man-hours. cerns and points out that profiling is more an art than a science, and evidence Selective Thinking for its validity is limited. Broadly, current criticisms of profiling are borne out Selective thinking is the process of studies on conventional investigative whereby a profiler selects out favorable approaches that suggest there is nothing evidence for remembrance and focus, special about detective work experience while ignoring unfavorable evidence. or clinical expertise (see Ekman, 1991; This kind of thinking is sometimes re- Kohnken, 1987; Alison & Canter, 1997). ferred to as ‘tunnel vision’ within criminal investigative circles. Selective Confirmation Bias thinking occurs when an investigator or profiler rejects alternative explanations Numerous studies have demonstrated in favor of simpler ones. This form of that people generally give an excessive thinking is referred to as ‘Occam Razor.’ amount of value to confirmatory information; that is, information which is Post Hoc Fallacy positive or which supports a position (Schwenk, 1988). Confirmation bias re- Post hoc fallacy, also called post hoc fers to a type of selective thinking ergo proper hoc (after this therefore be- whereby one tends to notice and to look cause of this) fallacy is based upon the for what confirms one’s beliefs, and to mistaken notion that simply because one ignore, not look for, or undervalue the thing happens after another, the first relevance of what contradicts one’s be- event was a cause of the second event. liefs. This type of thinking results from This form of reasoning in profiling is the relying on deductive inferencing without basis for many erroneous conclusions. any supporting inductive research. For For example, you have a "vision" that a example, Wiseman, West and Stemman body is going to be found in the water (1996) found in cases where psychics near a tree and later a body is found in had contributed to a police investigation the water near a tree. the psychics and the investigators they However, to establish the probability advised were only likely to remember of a causal connection between two those aspects of the case they were cor- events, controls must be first established rect about and forget a considerable to rule out other factors such as chance number of assertions that were totally or some unknown causal factor (Riere, incorrect. Gilovich (1993) suggests that 1998). Anecdotes from law enforcement the most likely reason for excessive in- officers who use this approach and swear fluence of confirmatory information is by it, does not count as establishing the

14 Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology, Volume 17, Number 1 probability of causal connection. Rather, Profiling typologies reviewed in this a controlled study, comparing success paper, outside of Hickey’s study, seem rates with true detectors and fake ones, is rather vexing. No explanations are given the only way to establish the probability regarding how the offender’s criminal connection between two events. personality is formed. Some profilers From the previous discussion on the argue that the offender is affected by frailties of human thinking, we should be some manifestation of mental illness, aware that offender profiles and many while others argue that pre-disposition conclusions about what may have hap- and sometimes fantasy is the motive for pened in a crime are distorted by easily murder. The problem is that neither recalled events and selective perception mental illnesses nor fantasies are mo- and expectations that bias the observa- tives, therefore, it is not possible to spec- tions and conclusions. This process is ify exactly what is responsible for the called "illusory correlation," which en- offender’s actions. An offender who is courages the belief that unrelated vari- mentally ill may have different reasons ables; events, crime scene actions, etc. for murder than an offender who appears are correlated when in fact no associa- normal, yet may be driven by fantasies. tions exist. To change profiling from an art to Investigative Process Management more a science what is needed are alternative approaches that give rise to sys- Given the problems with the deduc- tematic and scientific processes which tive profiling approaches, how should we will aid in reducing illusory correlations, proceed? One way might be through the hindsight bias and improve the way in inductive profiling approach of Investi- which crimes are profiled and how of- gative Process Management (IPM) fender profiles are generated as well as (Godwin, 2000, 2001, 2003). testing their accuracy and applicability to criminal investigations. A Move Towards a Facet Classifica- tion of Serial Murderers Conclusions An alternative to classifying serial mur- On the whole, criminal profiling derers into rigid types, organized and methods are inherently flawed due to disorganized, for example, is the induc- weak operational definitions and inferred tive investigative process management deductive assumptions made about of- method that sees the criminal’s behavior fender actions and characteristics. In its s shaped by daily life experiences and present form, this leads to empirically interpersonal relationships with others. unsound and misleading profiles. For In other words, the way the individual example, as mentioned earlier, Prentky treats others when he is not offending and Ressler suggest that fantasy is the may affect the way he carries out his motive for serial murder, however, they crimes. provide no literature to support their the- Investigative process management ory. Their claims appear to be deductive offers a new approach to profiling that conclusions based on offenders’ self- may be practical for police investiga- reports, which are highly susceptible to tions. There are two immediate advan- misleading and false information. tages. First, police investigations are

15 Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology, Volume 17, Number 1 faced with a great deal of information of Ault, R. L., Jr. & Reese, J.T., (1984). Psycho- investigative value that may be derived logical assessment of criminal profiling. In Committee on the Judiciary (1984), in Hearing from simple overt aspects of an offense. Before the Subcommittee on Juvenile Justice of Research carried out in investigative the Committee on the Judiciary United States process management can be helpful in Senate Ninety-eighth Congress. First Session that crimes often involve subtle behav- on Patterns of Murders Committed by One ioral information which has value, but Person in Large Numbers with no Apparent Rhyme, Reason, or Motivation, July 12, 1983, human biases drawn about the overt ac- Serial No. j-98-52, Washington, D.C.: U.S. tions of the offenses usually overshadow Government Printing Office. Reprinted from these subtle actions. One example of FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, 1980, Sep- how the investigative process manage- tember 1-4, 1980. ment profiling could assist police in a Blackburn, R. (1993). The psychology of criminal conduct: Theory, research and practice. serial murder investigation is a study car- Chichester, England: Wiley. ried out by this author on the spatial be- Brown, J.S., (1991). The psychopathology of havior of 54 U.S. serial murderers serial sexual homicide, American. Journal of. (Canter and Godwin, 1997). The study Forensic Psychology, 12, 11-24. found that the locations at which victims Burgess, A.W., Hartman, C.R., Ressler, R.D., Douglas, J.E., & McCormack, A., (1986). Sex- were abducted were centrally located ual homicide: a motivational model, J. Inter- close to the offenders’ home bases rather personal Violence, 1, 251-272. than at any number of the body dump Canter, D., (1994). Criminal Shadows: Inside the locations. Mind of the Serial Killer, London: Harper- Second, investigative process manage- Collins. Busch, K.A., & Cavanaugh, J.L., (1986). The ment relies on offense and offender vari- study of multiple murder: preliminary exami- ables that have been inductively related nation of the interface between epistemology and empirically replicated for linking and methodology, J. Interpersonal Violence, 1 crimes to a common offender without 5-23. having to rely on the unreliability and Caputi, J., (1987). The Age of Sex Crime, Lon- don: The Women’s Press Ltd. weak validity and utility of deductive Cohen, M.L., (1971). The psychology of rapists, profiles. Seminar in Psychiatry., 3, 307-325. As Canter (1997) clearly pointed out: DeHart, D.D., & Mahoney, J. M., (1994). The Detectives and police investigators are serial murderer’s motivations: an interdiscipli- particularly vulnerable to the creative nary review, Omega, 29, 29-45. Dietz, P.E., (1985). Sex offender profiling by the fictions of 'profilers' because their task is FBI: A preliminary conceptual model, in M.H. very similar to that of a novelist. Investi- Ben-Aron, S.J. Hucker, and C.D. Webster, gators feel the need to invent a narrative Eds., Criminal Criminology: the Assessment that makes sense of all the facts and also and Treatment of Criminal Behavior, Pitts- indicates the psychological processes burgh, PA: American Academy of Psychiatry and Law. that gives the plot its dynamics, usually Dietz, P.E., Hazelwood, R, & Warren, J., (1990). rather ambiguously referred to as the The sexually sadistic criminal and his offenses, 'motive.' If this invention adds weight to Bull. American Academy Psychiatry and Law, their own loosely formulated notions it is 18 163-178. even more attractive (Canter, 1997). Douglas, J.. & Burgess, A. (1986). Criminal profiling: a viable investigative tool against violent crime, FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, 55, REFERENCES 9-13. Alison, L. J., & Canter, D. V. (1997). Profes- Douglas. J.. & Olshaker, M., (1995). Mindhunter, sional, legal and ethical issues in offender pro- New York: Scribner. filing. London: Dartmouth Publishing.

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Elkman, P. (1991). Who can catch a liar? Ameri- Lester, D., (1995). Serial Killers: the Insatiable can Psychologist, 46, 913-920. Passion, Philadelphia, PA: The Charles Press. FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin (1985), Classify- Liebert, J., (1985). Contributions of psychiatric ing sexual homicide crime scenes: Inter-rater consultation in the investigation of serial mur- reliability, reprinted in NCAVC criminal inves- der, Int. J. Offender Therapy and Comp. tigative analysis: sexual homicide, Quantico, Criminology, 29, 187-200. VA, 1990. Lewis, D.O., Pincus, J.H., Bard, B., Richardson, Fox, J., & Levin, J., (1994). Overkill: Mass Mur- E., Prichep, L.S., Feldman, M., and Yeager, C., der and Serial Killing Exposed, New York: (1988). Neuropsychiatric, psycho-educational, Plenum Press. and family characteristics of 14 juveniles con- Fox, J., & Levin, J. (1985, December). Serial demned to death in the United States, Am. J. killers: How statistics mislead us. Boston Her- Psych., 145, 584-589. ald p. 45. Lion, J., (1991). Pitfalls in the assessment and Godwin, J., (1978). Murder USA: The ways we measurement of violence, J. Neuropsychiatry kill each other. New York: Ballantine Books. Clinical Neurosciences, 3, 540-543. Godwin, M., In Press. Serial Murder: A Psycho- Meloy, J.R., (1997) Violent Attachments, NJ: logical Perspective, Boston, MA: Allyn and Aronson. Bacon. Newman, J.H., (1870). Apologia Pro Vita Sua: Godwin, M. (2000). Hunting Serial Predators: a Being a History of His Religious Opinions, Multivariate Classification Approach to Profil- London: Oxford University Press. ing Violent Behavior, Boca Raton, FL: CRC Prentky, R. A., Burgess, A. W., Rokous, F., Lee, Press. A., Hartman, C., Ressler, R., & Douglas, J., Godwin, M. (2001). (Ed), Criminal Psychology (1989). The presumptive role of fantasy in se- and Forensic Technology: A Collaborative rial sexual homicide, American. J. Psych., 146, Approach to Effective Profiling, Boca Raton, 887-891. FL: CRC Press. Ressler, R., Burgess, A. W., & Douglas, J., Gresswell, D.M., & Hollin, C.R., (1994). Multi- (1988). Sexual Homicide: Patterns and Mo- ple murder: a review, British Journal of Crimi- tives, Lexington, MA: Lexington Books. nology, 34(1), 1-13. Ressler, R., Burgess, A., and Douglas, J., (1983). Groth, A., Burgess. A., & Holmstrom, L., (1997). Rape and rape-murder: one offender and Rape, power, anger, and sexuality, American. twelve victims, Am. J. Psychiatry, 140, 36-40. Journal of Psychiatry, 134, 1239-1243. Ressler, R., Burgess, A., D’Agostino, R., and Hare, R.D. (1991). Without Conscience, New Douglas, J., (1984). Serial murder: a new phe- York: Pocket Books. nomenon of homicide, paper presented at the Hazelwood, R.R., & Burgess, A. W., (1987). An tenth triennial meeting of the International As- introduction to the serial rapist, FBI Law En- sociation of Forensic Sciences, Oxford, Eng- forcement Bull, 16-24, September. land. Hilgard, E. R., (1977). Divide Consciousness: Ressler, R., Douglas, J., Burgess, A.W., and Bur- Multiple Controls in Human Thought and Ac- gess, A.G., (1992). Crime Classification Man- tion, New York: Wiley. ual, London: Simon and Schuster. Hickey, E., (1997). Serial murderers and their Revitch, E. and Schlesinger, L. B., Murder, victims, 2nd ed., Belmont, CA: Wadsworth. evaluation, classification, and prediction, Hickey, E., (1991). Serial Murderers and Their (1978). in S. B. Kutash, L. B. Schlesinger and Victims, Pacific Grove, CA: Brooks and Cole. Associates, Eds., Violent Perspectives on Mur- Holmes, R.M., & Holmes, R. (1996). Profiling der and Aggression, San Francisco: Jasey, Violent Crimes: an Investigative Tool, 2nd ed., 1978, 138-164. Sage: CA. Storr, A., (1972). Human destructiveness, New Katz, J., (1988). Seductions of Crime, New York: York: Basic Books. Basic Books. Shapiro, D., (1981). Autonomy and Rigid Char- Keppel, R., & Walter, R., (1999). Profiling kill- acter, New York: Basic Books. ers: a revised classification model for under- Stephenson, G.M., (1992). The Psychology of standing sexual murder, Int. J. Offender Ther. Criminal Justice, Oxford: Blackwell. Comp. Criminology, 43, 417-437. Terr, L., (1991). Childhood traumas: an outline Kohnken G. (1987). Training police officers to and overview, American. Journal of. Psychol- detect deceptive eyewitness statements: Does it ogy, 148, 10-20. work? Social Behavior, 2, 1-17.

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Turvey, B. (1999). Criminal Profiling: An Intro- partment at Methodist College, Fayetteville, duction to Behavioral Evidence Analysis, Lon- North Carolina. Prior to accepting this position, don, England: Academic Press. he was a research assistant professor in the Jus- Wiseman, R., West, D., and Stemman,R., (1996). tice Center at The University of Alaska, Anchor- An experimental test of psychic detection, age. Dr. Godwin is a former police officer in the Journal of Social Psychical Research, 61, 34- State of North Carolina and the author of journal 40. articles on psychological and geographical profil- Wilson, P., Lincoln, R., & Kocsis, R., (1997). ing. He has worked as a consultant to police and Validity, utility and ethics of profiling for se- others in developing psychological and geo- rial violent and sexual offenders, J. Psychia- graphical profiles. Recently, he received his try., Psychology and Law, 4, 1-12. Ph.D. from The University of Liverpool in Eng- land. Dr. Godwin can be reached at About the Author: Maurice Godwin, Ph.D., is [email protected] or [email protected]. an Assistant Professor in the criminal justice de-