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Offender Profiling: a Review, Critique and an Investigation of The OFFENDER PROFILING: A REVIEW, CRITIQUE, AND AN INVESTIGATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF CONTEXT, PERCEPTION, AND MOTIVATIONS ON SEXUAL OFFENDING By Shannon Lynn Vettor A thesis submitted to the College of Life and Environmental Sciences of the University of Birmingham for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY School of Psychology College of Life and Environmental Sciences The University of Birmingham December 2011 University of Birmingham Research Archive e-theses repository This unpublished thesis/dissertation is copyright of the author and/or third parties. The intellectual property rights of the author or third parties in respect of this work are as defined by The Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or as modified by any successor legislation. Any use made of information contained in this thesis/dissertation must be in accordance with that legislation and must be properly acknowledged. Further distribution or reproduction in any format is prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder. Abstract This thesis investigates the underlying assumptions of Offender Profiling and the ability to infer offender characteristics from crime scene characteristics of sexual offences, taking into consideration the potential mediating effects of the context and situational factors surrounding the offence, the offender’s perceptions or implicit theories, and their motivations to sexually offend. Data examined were collected during the evaluation of the Sex Offender Treatment Programme and consisted of men who committed either a rape or sexual murder against adult women. Chapter 1 and 2 review the Offender Profiling literature and offer critiques and areas to further examine, such as the affects of context, perceptions, and motivations on the A(ctions) to C(haracteristics) equation of Offender Profiling. Chapter 3 outlines the different methodologies used in the subsequent chapters. Chapter 4 compares the characteristics of rapists and sexual murderers and found very few differences in both offender and offence characteristics. It also looked at the pathway to offending of sexual aggressors of adult women and found three, which were supported by previous literature: Angry, Sadistic, and Sexually Compensatory. Chapter 5 looked at the effects of various contextual variables on the relationship between offender characteristics and offence characteristics and found that the location of the offence, and use drugs just prior to the offence influenced the ability to infer certain offender characteristics from offence characteristics. Chapter 6 investigates the inclusion of perceptual aspects in the form of the offender’s implicit theories and the effect these have on the A(ctions) to C(haracteristics) equation. No significant mediated relationships were found. Chapter 7 examines the effect of the offender’s motivations to offend and how this would affect the ability to infer offender characteristics from crime scene variables. Four motivations were found within the current sample, Angry, Sadistic, Sexually Compensatory, and Sexually Opportunistic. There were no significant mediating relationships found between the motivations, offender characteristics, and offence characteristics. The results of the thesis are discussed in terms of both pragmatic and theoretical support of Offender Profiling and the limitations of the research. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First and foremost, I’d like to infinitely thank my supervisors Tony Beech and Jessica Woodhams. While I know it was not always easy, you both provided me with immeasurable guidance and support, both professionally and personally. Thank you for keeping me going and giving me the ‘gentle’ nudges I needed to finish. A special thank you to Sue Hanson for all the time spent listening over the many years I’ve been at the University, and for always knowing where everything is, and who the correct person is to speak to! Without you, we would be lost. To my friends and colleagues in the Centre for Forensic and Criminological Psychology, who have supported me and been there over the years in many capacities, Leigh Harkins, Shelley Price, Louise Dixon, and Ross Bartels, without your insights, smiling faces, constant friendship, and readiness with kind words, the long days and nights would not have been bearable. For this, I am eternally grateful. To the friends I have met during my time in England, Eleanor Gittens, Kerri Badger, Katerina Kantartzis, and Kate Graham your ability to make me cry with laughter and keep me sane will never be forgotten. You have all made my experience in England more than I could have imagined and hoped for. To Laura, Nattalie, Lynn, Katie, and Lillian, thanks for all of your constant badgering to come home I miss you too! Jay, from the day we met, you have been there; through the good and the bad, even when you didn’t have to. You have pushed and encouraged me when I couldn’t do it myself. I am forever grateful for the love and support you and your family have given me. Finally, I would like to thank my family for their everlasting support and belief in me over these long years of study, and your constant question: “Are you done yet?!”. To which I can now answer, “Yes!”. An ocean and half of a country between us has never stopped me being able to feel your love and support, Mom, Dad, Nana, Papa, and Craig, I thank you, I miss you greatly, and I love you. To my sister Holly, you have been there since the day I was born, and I have felt you beside me every step of the way. I love you and I promise not to steer Tyler wrong! iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1: Offender Profiling: An overview and critique of its assumptions 1 and its approaches 1. Introduction 2 1.1 Evaluation of Offender Profiling 3 1.1.1 Utility of Offender Profiles 3 1.1.2 Content of Offender Profiles 3 1.1.3 State of the Literature of Offender Profiling 4 1.2 The Assumptions of Offender Profiling 5 1.2.1 The Behavioural Consistency Assumption 6 1.2.2 The Homology Assumption 7 1.3 Typographical Approaches 9 1.3.1 Pragmatic Criminal Investigative Approach 10 1.3.1.1 Critique of the Early Criminal Investigative Approach 13 1.3.2 Theory-Led Approach 15 1.3.2.1 Critique of the Theory-Led Approach 19 1.3.3 Clinical Approach 20 1.3.3.1 Critique of the Clinical Approach 23 1.3.4 Statistical Approach 24 1.3.4.1 Critique of the Statistical Approach 27 1.3.5 The Current Situation in the United Kingdom: Behavioural Investigative 28 Advice 1.4 Critique of Offender Profiling in General 29 1.4.1 Pragmatic Use and Validity 29 1.4.2 Quality of Data 31 1.5 Summary 32 Chapter 2: Directions for Offender Profiling and Current Thesis 34 2. Introduction 34 2.1 Rationale for Current Research 38 2.2 Context 40 2.3 Perceptions 41 iv 2.4 Motivations 42 2.5 Conclusions 43 Chapter 3: Methodology 46 3.1 Sample 46 3.2 Chapter 4 Methodology 47 3.2.1 Pearson’s Chi-square 48 3.2.2 Independent Sample t-tests 48 3.2.3 Mann Whitney U 49 3.2.4 MANOVA 49 3.2.5 Hierarchical Cluster Analysis 49 3.3 Chapter 5, 6, and 7 Methodology 52 3.3.1 Coding of Variables 52 3.3.1.1 Offender Characteristics 52 3.3.1.2 Offence Characteristics 53 3.3.1.3 Potential Mediators 54 3.3.2 Mediation Analysis 56 3.3.3 Bootstrapping 59 3.3.4 Preacher and Hayes Estimate of the Indirect Effects 60 3.3.5 Assumptions of the Mediation Analysis 61 3.3.5.1 Multicollinearity 61 3.3.5.2 Linear Regression and Logistic Regression Assumptions 62 3.3.6 Measurement of Variance 62 3.3.6.1 R-Square Statistic 62 3.3.6.2 Wald Statistic 63 3.3.6.3 Cox & Snell R and Nagelkerke R Square 63 Chapter 4: Rapists and sexual murderers: Combined pathways to offending 64 4. Introduction 65 4.1 Comparing Rapists and Sexual Murderers 65 4.1.1 Escalation and Continuum of Sexual Violence 67 4.2 Pathways of Sexual Aggression against Women 68 4.3 Methods 71 v 4.3.1 Participants 71 4.3.2 Procedure 72 4.4 Results 73 4.4.1 Findings of the Comparisons between the Rapist and Sexual Murderer 73 Samples 4.4.1.1 Offender and General Life-style Characteristics 73 4.4.1.2 Relationship and Sexual Life-style Characteristics 74 4.4.1.3 Childhood Victimization 74 4.4.1.4 Age at First Offence and Previous Offences 75 4.4.1.5 Pre-crime Factors 75 4.4.1.6 Victim Characteristics 75 4.4.1.7 Modus Operandi 76 4.4.1.8 Mental Health 76 4.4.1.9 Summary of Comparisons 80 4.4.2 Pathways to Offending 80 4.4.2.1 Angry Cluster 82 4.4.2.2 Sadistic Cluster 82 4.4.2.3 Sexually Compensatory Cluster 83 4.5 Discussion 84 4.5.1 Comparison of Rapists and Sexual Murderers 84 4.5.2 Pathways to Offending 85 4.6 Conclusions 87 4.6.1 Suggestions for Future Research 89 Chapter 5, 6, and 7: The Potential Mediators between Crime Scene and 90 Offender Characteristics Chapter 5: Context as a Mediator of the Interaction between Crime Scene 91 and Offender Characteristics 5. Introduction 91 5.1 Location of Initial Contact and Offence 92 5.2 Victim Resistance 94 5.3 Alcohol and Drug Use 96 5.4 Aim of the Chapter 97 vi 5.5 Method 98 5.5.1 Sample 98 5.5.2 Data Coding 98 5.6 Results 100 5.6.1 Multicollinearity 100 5.6.2 Mediation (Paths a and b), Indirect (ab), and Total Effects 100 5.6.3 Direct Effect of Offence Characteristics (X) on Offender Characteristics 105 (Y)(c’) 5.7 Discussion 106 5.7.1 Limitations 109 Chapter 6: Implicit Theories as a Mediator between Crime Scene and 111 Offender Characteristics 6.
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