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The Rise of the Sharing Economy and Automated Transport Deliverable N Future trends in mobility: the rise of the sharing economy and automated transport Deliverable n. 3.3 -Annex A Date: 14/07/2016 Version: 1.1 Author(s): Laurent Franckx, VITO Contributor(s): Inge Mayeres, VITO Project: MIND-sets | www.mind-sets.eu Grant Agreement N°: 640401 Project duration: 01.12.14 – 30.11.17 Project Coordinator: Silvia Gaggi, ISIS T: 0039 063 212 655 F: 0039 063 213 049 E: [email protected] This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 640401. Contents Preface ______________________________________________________________________ 5 Chapter 1: The rise of the sharing economy: implications for transport _____________________ 6 1. Introduction ________________________________________________________________ 7 2. Carsharing _________________________________________________________________ 10 Definitions ___________________________________________________________ 10 Key advantages and drawbacks __________________________________________ 11 A (very short) history of carsharing _______________________________________ 12 Round trip carsharing __________________________________________________ 15 One way carsharing ____________________________________________________ 15 Personal vehicle sharing ________________________________________________ 17 Characteristics of the supply side ________________________________________ 19 Characteristics of the demand side _______________________________________ 20 The B2B market _______________________________________________________ 21 Assessing the impacts ________________________________________________ 22 Organisational and institutional issues __________________________________ 30 3. Scooter sharing_____________________________________________________________ 32 4. Bicycle sharing _____________________________________________________________ 33 Definitions ___________________________________________________________ 33 History ______________________________________________________________ 33 Usage _______________________________________________________________ 34 User socio-demographic profiles _________________________________________ 35 Barriers ______________________________________________________________ 35 Impacts ______________________________________________________________ 35 Logistics _____________________________________________________________ 37 Perspectives __________________________________________________________ 37 5. On-demand ride services ____________________________________________________ 39 5.1. The traditional taxi market _____________________________________________ 39 5.2. Ridesourcing/Transportation Network Company (TNC) Services _______________ 41 5.3. Ridesplitting within TNC services ________________________________________ 44 5.4. E-Hail Services for regulated taxis _______________________________________ 44 Deliverable 3.3 – ANNEX A / version 1.1. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation Page 2 Programme under grant agreement No 640401. 5.5. Impacts ______________________________________________________________ 45 6. Ridesharing ________________________________________________________________ 53 6.1. Definitions ___________________________________________________________ 53 6.2. Benefits _____________________________________________________________ 53 6.3. Organisation and technology ____________________________________________ 54 6.4. Dynamic ridesharing ___________________________________________________ 55 6.5. Perspectives __________________________________________________________ 56 7. Alternative transit services___________________________________________________ 58 7.1. Demand Responsive Transit (DRT) ________________________________________ 58 7.2. Jitneys ______________________________________________________________ 62 7.3. Shuttles ______________________________________________________________ 63 7.4. Microtransit __________________________________________________________ 63 7.5. Impacts ______________________________________________________________ 64 8. Courier network services ____________________________________________________ 67 9. Trip planning apps __________________________________________________________ 68 9.1. Definitions ___________________________________________________________ 68 9.2. Advantages ___________________________________________________________ 69 9.3. Challenges and emerging services ________________________________________ 70 9.4. Mobility as a Service ___________________________________________________ 71 Chapter 2: Automated mobility ____________________________________________________ 76 10. Automated mobility ________________________________________________________ 77 10.1. Definitions, history and current status __________________________________ 77 10.2. Potential impacts____________________________________________________ 81 10.3. Long term outlook ___________________________________________________ 87 10.4. Synergies with shared mobility ________________________________________ 89 10.5. Legal and regulatory hurdles __________________________________________ 98 Chapter 3: Policy implications ____________________________________________________ 100 11. Implications for transport modelling _________________________________________ 101 11.1. Growth potential ___________________________________________________ 101 11.2. Valuation of time ___________________________________________________ 101 11.3. Modelling of parking ________________________________________________ 102 11.4. What is a “travel mode”? ____________________________________________ 102 11.5. Impacts on road capacity ____________________________________________ 102 Deliverable 3.3 – ANNEX A / version 1.1. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation Page 3 Programme under grant agreement No 640401. 11.6. Reactions from other economic actors _________________________________ 102 11.7. Impact on the built environment ______________________________________ 103 11.8. Ownership versus sharing ____________________________________________ 103 11.9. The importance of stated preferences _________________________________ 103 12. Implications for transportation demand management __________________________ 105 12.1. Shared mobility as complement or substitute ___________________________ 105 12.2. The regulation of on-demand ride services _____________________________ 106 12.3. Alternative powertrains _____________________________________________ 106 12.4. Pricing policies _____________________________________________________ 107 12.5. Public transit ______________________________________________________ 108 12.6. Accessibility _______________________________________________________ 108 References _________________________________________________________________ 109 Policy documents __________________________________________________________ 117 Deliverable 3.3 – ANNEX A / version 1.1. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation Page 4 Programme under grant agreement No 640401. Preface This document is a technical annex to Deliverable 3.3 of the MIND-SETS project. This annex follows the same general structure as the main document, but delves deeper into the arguments, tackles the technical issues in greater depth and contains a full reference list. Chapter 1: The rise of the sharing economy: implications for transport Authors: Laurent FRANCKX, VITO Deliverable 3.3 – ANNEX A / version 1.1. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation Page 6 Programme under grant agreement No 640401. 1. Introduction It was easy to predict mass car ownership but hard to predict Walmart Carl Sagan Previous Deliverables in the MIND SETS projects1 had already pointed to the rise of the “sharing economy” in Europe. For instance, between 2006 and 2014, the number of users of carsharing systems has increased from 0.36 million to 4.95 million. Bike ridership has also experienced a sharp growth over the last 10 years. In a few years’ time, these services have escaped from their niche status, and are arguably moving in the mainstream. Some urban transport planners are already wondering to what extent these new market models will undermine the assumptions of their current work. Moreover, several sectors are already affected by the phenomenon: taxi drivers argue that on-demand ride services are a form of unfair competition, traditional car rental and even car manufacturers are moving in the car sharing business, public transport operators wonder whether these new transport models are competitors or possible strategic allies… Moreover, there are indications that shared mobility may not only replace some forms of private travel, but may also facilitate other forms of private travel. Hence, the net environmental and transport impacts remain contentious. Moreover, whereas the idea of fully autonomous cars looked like pure science fiction just a decade ago, several major players claim that they have developed prototype models that can function in operational circumstances. Although there is a lot of controversy regarding the speed with which autonomous cars will indeed gain important market shares, no one seems to doubt that, in the long run, they will replace human operated vehicles. Paradoxically, although no one questions that their impact will be profound, there is a lot of debate on
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