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Sustainable Utilities: Financial Instruments to Manage Weather-Related Revenue Risk

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Sustainable Utilities: Financial Instruments to Manage Weather-Related Revenue Risk Sustainable Utilities: Financial Instruments to Manage Weather-Related Revenue Risk July 2014 Financial Instruments to Manage Weather-Related Revenue Risk Table of Contents Table of Contents ................................................................................................................ 1 Foreword ............................................................................................................................. 2 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 4 Overview of Financial Instruments for Risk Mitigation ...................................................... 5 Financial Derivatives ....................................................................................................... 5 Exchange Cleared Futures ............................................................................................... 6 Insurance ......................................................................................................................... 6 Brief History of the Weather Risk Management Market .................................................... 7 Historical Examples of Weather Risk Mitigation by Municipalities .................................. 10 Weather Risk Embedded in Water Service ....................................................................... 14 The Risk Water Suppliers Face ...................................................................................... 14 Current Steps Taken to Manage Weather Risk ............................................................. 15 Building Blocks for Constructing a Weather Hedge .......................................................... 16 Considerations for Pursuing an Optimal Weather Hedge ............................................ 19 Pricing Basics for a Weather Hedge .................................................................................. 23 Case Studies for Water Suppliers ...................................................................................... 35 Comparing and Contrasting Weather Insurance and Derivatives .................................... 43 Brief History .................................................................................................................. 43 Current Conditions ........................................................................................................ 44 Bond Structures to Consider ............................................................................................. 47 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 49 Appendix 1 – Glossary of Terms ....................................................................................... 50 Author’s Biography ........................................................................................................... 54 1 Alliance for Water Efficiency Financial Instruments to Manage Weather-Related Revenue Risk Foreword In 2012, the Alliance for Water Efficiency (AWE) convened 30 leading water utility finance managers, rate experts, academics, economists, regulators and advocates at a Summit to discuss a troubling trend in the water industry: the decline of water utility revenues across the nation and cutbacks in water efficiency investments, which were perceived to be responsible for this slowing of sales. This two-day discussion revealed that more efficient water use was just one piece of the puzzle. A host of factors – including unpredictable precipitation patterns, more water-efficient fixtures and appliances being installed because of standards and codes requirements, economic shifts, and gaps in overall financial planning – were all partly responsible for causing this revenue instability. As the leading voice for sustainable and efficient water use in North America, AWE is dedicated to protecting and expanding investments in water efficiency. Following this discussion, AWE set out to identify, develop and disseminate solutions to help utility managers navigate this minefield of challenges. One novel idea that surfaced during that 2012 discussion was the use of financial tools – such as derivatives and insurance – to mitigate the financial impact of risks like volatile weather. Although these tools are used frequently by the agricultural and energy sectors, it was a solution that had not yet been closely explored in the context of water supply management. In light of the rapidly evolving and increasingly volatile weather patterns, AWE deemed it a topic for serious investigation. In 2013, AWE engaged a consultant with extensive experience in weather risk hedging to determine how these tools might be applied by water finance managers to better manage the financial risks of unexpected weather events – ranging from extremely wet years to prolonged drought or insufficient snowpack. In April 2014, AWE reconvened this same group of leaders – along with new voices – and introduced this idea as a possible strategy for water managers to manage this growing risk. A fruitful discussion ensued as the group delved into numerous concerns related to utilizing such tools in an industry that provides such a critical public service, and which has typically not engaged in financial market activity. The group agreed that utilities must continue to strive for wise financial management through cost-based rate setting practices that incentivize efficient use and ensure a reliable revenue stream. Through discussion, however, it was determined that both of these traditional strategies had significant embedded risks of their own. Both political risk related to rate increases and the risk of stranded infrastructure carry a high implicit and explicit cost. Alliance for Water Efficiency 2 Financial Instruments to Manage Weather-Related Revenue Risk While participants expressed concern that profits were being made on these hedges, they also recognized that all vendors seek a profit when they contract with a water utility. Additionally, the question of “who pays” for such a tool was discussed, examining ways a utility might pass on the cost of a weather hedge to large outdoor users in a fair and equitable manner. In addition to the financial protection these market-based and insurance products provide to utilities, the discussion revealed yet another benefit for utilities seeking to secure a sustainable financial position. Rating agencies – a representative of which participated in the second Summit – view these types of financial tools as an acceptable means of risk mitigation. In fact, it was noted that if a water utility was perceived as potentially being unable to push through needed rate increases, then having a third party contract with a highly rated counterparty would be viewed favorably and could improve the utility’s credit rating. At the conclusion of the Summit, the majority of this group agreed that these instruments could be a viable strategy to add to the utility manager’s toolbox for increasing fiscal sustainability, and that they should be further explored by the industry. This initial white paper serves as introduction to the diverse tools that exist today to manage weather risk and how they function. It is AWE’s intent that this document spark discussion and further investigation into how these tools might be appropriately structured and priced to help utilities better protect their fiscal viability and ability to serve customers with clean, reliable and affordable water service for years to come. Mary Ann Dickinson President and CEO Alliance for Water Efficiency John Polasek President AIWEX, Inc. July, 2014 3 Alliance for Water Efficiency Financial Instruments to Manage Weather-Related Revenue Risk Introduction Water utilities nationwide are increasingly experiencing significant financial challenges associated with their missions to deliver a long-term, safe and affordable supply of water to customers. Partly due to unpredictable weather patterns, changing socioeconomic conditions and characteristics, changes in codes and standards, successful water conservation programs, and a number of other factors, both water sales and water-related revenues are falling on a national level1. With sales and revenues declining, water utilities are stretched to cover the increasing costs of water treatment and delivery, as well as the long-delayed and rising costs of infrastructure repair and replacement. Most importantly, they are unable to meet these costs while still encouraging conservation efforts critical to sustaining strained water supplies. Utilities currently employ a number of techniques and are exploring various new solutions to help stabilize utility revenues and ensure long-term financial viability – including new approaches to rate setting, legislative and regulatory changes, and financial management strategies. The idea of exploring risk-sharing mechanisms and financial instruments to mitigate risks has recently emerged as a potential solution. Entities in the agricultural, mineral, and energy sectors often hedge against financial risks by purchasing futures contracts, derivative contracts, or insurance products. The weather risk management market, which can offer financial solutions packaged in any of these formats, in particular may present a promising opportunity for water utilities. Weather patterns shift continuously but also can be persistent. Extremely wet or dry seasons, or even worse, a few in a row can have a significant impact on a utility’s
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