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The Development and Improvement of Instructions CROSS-BORDER WIND POWER PLANNING: A CASE STUDY OF THE SOUTHERN KURIL ISLANDS Dissertation in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE WITH A MAJOR IN WIND POWER PROJECT MANAGEMENT Uppsala University Department of Earth Sciences, Campus Gotland Tamara Oshkaderova 2020 CROSS-BORDER WIND POWER PLANNING: A CASE STUDY OF THE SOUTHERN KURIL ISLANDS Dissertation in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE WITH A MAJOR IN WIND POWER PROJECT MANAGEMENT Uppsala University Department of Earth Sciences, Campus Gotland Approved by: Supervisor: Johanna Liljenfeldt, senior lecturer/associate professor at the Department of Earth Sciences, Wind Energy Examiner: Andrew Barney, Junior Lecturer at the Department of Earth Sciences, Wind Energy 2020 iii ABSTRACT Combating climate change has become the key objective of the 21st century. Energy transition, with the intensive introduction of the renewable energy sources to the world’s energy systems, is one of the biggest driving forces in stimulating global sustainable development. Growing shares of renewables, including wind power as a major player (35% of the world’s electricity needs by 2050 raised the issues of grid stability and supply/demand balancing (IRENA, 2019). A popular view on solutions for these issues lies with global energy interconnections, which could support grid stability and let the countries trade green electricity between themselves, creating big regional or even global electricity markets. These interconnections would call for close cooperation between the states, not only in the sphere of transmission, but in generation as well. The cross-border character of such projects would bring new aspects and nuances to the wind power developer’s work, making it more complex and politically sensitive. The potential planning process of such wind power projects has not been investigated before. Therefore, in order to fill this research gap, a cross-border wind power environment analysis framework was developed on the basis of the reviewed literature to assist a wind power developer in a potential planning process of a complex cross-border wind energy project in a sensitive setting. The developed framework was then used to evaluate an empirical case of an assumed offshore wind park on the Southern Kuril Islands, a disputed territory between Japan and Russia. The results showed that introduction of the cross-border factor makes permitting and coordination of projects more challenging and confusing. In addition to that, the wind power developer might have to contribute to the development of improved wind power regulations and norms. Moreover, coordination of such projects would not involve only the developer, but most likely representatives of the involved countries and regions, and possibly mediating organisations; the developers’ work would take place in a multicultural environment with people of various traditions, values, economic backgrounds and interests, which would complicate balancing the stakeholders’ interests during the planning phase. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my thesis supervisor Johanna Liljenfeld for her amazing guidance, understanding and support during the course of this thesis. I am also grateful to the Department of Earth Sciences, Wind Energy for the insightful and meaningful work they do to ensure the best study experience for their students at Campus Gotland. Special thanks to Keith Lynch from Ørsted for the telephone interview, which provided valuable input to my work. Finally, I would like to thank my mother, without whom neither my studies in Sweden nor this thesis could be possible. v NOMENCLATURE ASG – Asian Super Grid CBC – Cross-border Cooperation CRESS – Capacity-based Renewable Energy Support Scheme EEZ – Exclusive Economic Zone EIA – Environmental Impact Assessment EU – European Union FIT – Feed-in-Tariff GEI – Global Energy Interconnection GHG – Green House Gasses GIS – Geoinformation Systems HVDC – High Voltage Direct Current Hz – Hertz IEA – International Energy Agency IRENA – International Renewable Energy Agency IUCN – International Union for Conservation of Nature kWh – Kilowatt-hour LIDAR – Light Detection and Ranging LNG – Liquified Natural Gas MW - Megawatt NGO – Non-governmental Organisation PPA – Power Purchase Agreement PPP – Public-Private Partnership RES – Renewable Energy Sources RUB – Ruble SDG – Sustainable Development Goal SODAR – Sonic Detection and Raging UN – United Nations WTG – Wind Turbine Generator WWII – World War II vi TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ..............................................................................................................iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....................................................................................... iv NOMENCLATURE .................................................................................................. v LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................... viii LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................... ix LIST OF APPENDIXES ...........................................................................................x CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................. 1 CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW .................................................................... 8 2.1 Cross-border Infrastructure Projects .................................................................. 8 2.2 Wind Power Planning Process ............................................................................ 13 2.3 Wind Power Cross-border Environment Analysis Framework ...................... 19 CHAPTER 3. MATERIALS AND METHODS ....................................................... 22 3.1 Case Background .................................................................................................. 22 3.2 Case Study Method .............................................................................................. 24 CHAPTER 4. RESULTS OF THE CASE STUDY .................................................. 29 4.1 Geographic Accessibility ...................................................................................... 29 4.2 Socio-cultural Proximity ...................................................................................... 30 4.3 Institutional Context Conditions ......................................................................... 31 4.3.1 Economy .......................................................................................................... 31 4.3.2 Laws and Regulations ..................................................................................... 32 vii 4.4 Cross-border Integration ..................................................................................... 33 4.5 Governance ........................................................................................................... 35 4.6 International Support and Mediation ................................................................ 37 4.7 Policy Mix .............................................................................................................. 39 4.7.1 Wind Power Policy in Russia .......................................................................... 39 4.7.2 Wind Power Policy in Japan ........................................................................... 40 4.8 Wind Resource and Area Specifications ............................................................ 41 4.9 Permitting and Coordination .............................................................................. 43 4.10 Local Communities............................................................................................. 45 4.10.1 South Kuril Islands’ Community .................................................................. 46 4.10.2 Nemuro Community ...................................................................................... 46 4.11 Electricity Trade ................................................................................................. 47 4.12 Case Study Summary ......................................................................................... 50 CHAPTER 5. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION ................................................. 52 REFERENCES ...................................................................................................... 56 APPENDIX ............................................................................................................ 73 viii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Wind power planning process ............................................................................ 19 Figure 2 “The Northern Territories” and their EEZ ......................................................... 23 Figure 3 Kurilskiy Nature Reserve ................................................................................... 42 Figure 4 Asia Super Grid initiative map .......................................................................... 48 ix LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Ten conditions for assessing the cross-border environment ............................... 12 Table 2 Wind Power Cross-Border Environment Analysis Framework .......................... 20 x LIST OF APPENDIXES Appendix 1 An official reply from the Southern Kuril Islands Municipality .................. 73 Appendix 2 Mean Wind Speed on the Southern Kuril Islands ........................................ 74 Appendix 3 Seafloor depth
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