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School Modernisation Information Pack

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School Modernisation Information Pack SCHOOL MODERNISATION INFORMATION PACK OCTOBER 2011 CONTENTS Page 1. Birth Maps for 2005 and 2010 – Wall Display N/A 2. a) Flintshire Birth Trend 1997 - 2003 1 b) Flintshire Birth Trend 2004 – 2010 3. School Place Planning Area Map 2 4. School Place Planning Area Birth Trends 2003 – 2010 3 5. Forecast Methodology 4 6. Primary Forecast Example 5 7. Primary to Secondary Transfers 6 - 7 8. Aggregate Flintshire Secondary Forecasts 8 9. Secondary Forecasts (each individual school) 9 - 20 10. Housing Formula 21 11. a) Graph - Current capacity and Numbers on Roll plus 22 2026 forecast assuming 30% build completion b) Graph - Current capacity and Numbers on Roll plus 23 2026 forecast assuming 100% build completion 12. Graph – Spare capacity numbers for 2026 assuming 24 30% build completion 13. Graph – Spare capacity % against recommended % 25 14. Primary Admissions (Sept 2011) 26 15. a) Graph – Primary capacity by School Place Planning 27 Area b) Figures – Primary capacity by School Place Planning 28 Area Appendix a) Secondary Numbers on Roll 29 b) Primary Numbers on Roll 30 - 31 c) (i) Housing Numbers (30% completion) 32 c) (II) Housing Numbers (100% completion) 33 d) Condition Surveys 34 – 35 e) Capacity, Number on Roll and Surplus places for Secondary Schools 36 f) Capacity, Number on Roll and Surplus places for Primary Schools 37 g) Forecast Pupil Numbers from Unitary Development Plan Allocated Sites and Housing Developments 39 h) FAQs 40 i) Secondary School Performance Template 49 Flintshire Birth Trend Summary Flintshire Birth Trend 1997 - 2003 1850 1800 Flintshire 1750 Births 1700 Linear (Flintshire 1650 Births) 1600 Number of Live Births Number of 1550 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year Flintshire Birth Trend 2004 - 2010 1850 1800 1750 Flintshire 1700 Births 1650 Linear (Flintshire Number of Live Births Number of 1600 Births) 1550 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Source - ONS Vital Statistics Table Map Showing Flintshire School Place Planning Areas Legend SPPA High School HolywellHolywell HighHigh SchoolSchool St.St. RichardRichard GwynGwyn CatholicCatholic HighHigh School,School, FlintFlint FlintFlint HighHigh SchoolSchool Connah'sConnah's QuayQuay HighHigh SchoolSchool JohnJohn SummersSummers HighHigh School,School, QueensferryQueensferry HawardenHawarden HighHigh SchoolSchool St.St. David'sDavid's HighHigh School,School, ArgoedArgoed HighHigh School,School, BrynBryn yy Baal,Baal, MoldMold SaltneySaltney ElfedElfed HighHigh School,School, BuckleyBuckley YsgolYsgol UwchraddUwchradd MaesMaes Garmon,Garmon, MoldMold AlunAlun School,School, MoldMold CastellCastell AlunAlun HighHigh School,School, HopeHope Environment Directorate, This map is reproduced from Ordnance Survey material with the permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of the Flintshire County Council, Scale 1:175,000 @ A4 Controller of Her Majesty's Stationery Office. © Crown Copyright. * Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown Copyright and County Hall, Mold, may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings. OS Map: LandRanger Licence number 100023386. Flintshire, CH7 6NF. Flintshire County Council, 2011. Director: Mr. Carl Longland Plotted 17/10/2011 School Place Planning Area Birth Trend Summary Holywell Births Connah's Quay Births 290 290 270 270 250 250 230 230 SPPA4 Connah's 210 SPPA1 Holywell 210 Quay 190 Linear (SPPA1 Holywell) 190 Linear (SPPA4 170 170 Connah's Quay) 150 150 130 130 110 110 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Flint Births Queensferry Births 290 290 270 270 250 250 SPPA5 Queensferry 230 SPPA1 Flint & Bagillt 230 & Shotton 210 210 190 Linear (SPPA1 Flint & 190 Linear (SPPA5 170 Bagillt) 170 Queensferry & 150 150 130 130 Shotton) 110 110 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Mold Births Hawarden Births 290 290 270 270 250 250 230 230 SPPA6 Hawarden 210 SPPA3 Mold 210 190 Linear (SPPA3 Mold) 190 Linear (SPPA6 170 170 Hawarden) 150 150 130 130 110 110 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Mynydd Isa & Buckley Births Hope Births 290 290 270 270 250 250 SPPA7 Mynydd Isa & 230 230 210 SPPA8 Hope 210 Buckley 190 190 Linear (SPPA7 Mynydd 170 Linear (SPPA8 170 Isa & Buckley) 150 150 Hope) 130 130 110 110 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Saltney & Broughton Births Average Increase Additional Area over 8 years Classes (approx.) 290 Holywell 25 1 270 Flint 50 2 250 Mold 5 0 230 SPPA9 Saltney & 210 Broughton Mynydd Isa & Buckley 15 0.5 190 Linear (SPPA9 Saltney & Broughton 15 0.5 170 Saltney & Broughton) 150 Connah's Quay 35 1 130 Queensferry 55 2 110 Hawarden -5 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Hope -25 -1 Flintshire 170 6 Key SPPA - School Place Planning Area Source - ONS Vital Statistics Table Methodology: Pupil Forecasts 2012/13 – 2026/27 1) Birth Data • Obtained update from Office of National Statistics giving breakdown of births by Ward for each year up to 2010. • New data entered onto Primary Master Spreadsheets to generate projections for next 15 years. 2) School Retention Rates • Updated Primary Retention Rates using January PLASC School Returns (4 year average) • Updated Secondary Retention Rates using September PLASC School Returns (4 year average) 3) Secondary Source from Primary • Used School Returns for September 2011 to update transfer ratios between Flintshire’s Primary schools and each of the Secondary schools • Out-of-County gains noted 4) Primary School Forecasts • Updated each Primary school planning area sheet with new SPPA birth data to generate new Birth Ratios for each planning area • Used latest NOR (September 2011) information to obtain updated School Admissions Factor – i.e. the relationship between those in school and those born in the area 5) Primary Year 6 information used to generate Year 7 Forecasts • Used Year 6 forecasts combined with 3 year average Primary Secondary transfer ratios to produce Year 7 forecasts • Adjusted for Out-of-County gains (in particular Wrexham and some Chester) 6) Year 7 Forecasts • Year 7 forecasts combined with Secondary retention rates to generate Secondary school forecasts for remaining NCYs 7) Housing Adjustments • Housing forecasts from Planning Team used in conjunction with Housing Formula to generate potential Primary and Secondary pupil yields • Potential yields, at any future date, are very dependant on speed of housing build i.e. the economic climate 8) Capacity Measurements • Obtained latest capacity figures from Planning Team • Compared forecasted pupil numbers to current capacity PRIMARY FORECAST - SAMPLE SCHOOL Historic Comparison of School Place Planning Area Births to Nursery Entries (Generation of Admission Factor): SEPTEMBER NUMBERS Nursery Entry Year 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Nursery Entries 10 12 15 12 10 Birth Year 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 SPPA Births 200 186 175 183 187 Entries Expressed as % of SPPA Births 5.0% 6.4% 8.6% 6.6% 5.3% 6.4% Admission Factor 5-year Average % Projected School Place Planning Area Births: Academic Year Births 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 Mold 201 194 189 198 200 186 175 183 187 199 205 194 194 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 Actual Ward Births - Sourced from ONS Vital Statistics Table FORMULATED USING TREND-BASED PROJECTIONS Forecasted Nursery Intake Using Admission Factor Applied to Projected SPPA Births: SEPTEMBER ENTRIES Birth Year 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/12 Nursery Entry Year 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 Projected Entries (Births in corresponding Birth Year 11 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 multiplied by Admission Factor) Based on Actual Academic Year Births Based upon Forecasted Academic Year Births School Retention Rates: Average Nursery-Reception Retention Rate 0.85 Average NCY1 - NCY6 Retention Rate 1.02 Rate formulated from year by year pupils numbers i.e. percentage of pupils retained Average Infant - Junior Transfer Rate N/A Pupil Forecasts: Academic Year FOR PRIMARY SCHOOLS EXCLUDING JUNIOR-ONLY 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 Nursery 4 474 131312 12 12 12121212121212121212Forecasted Entries (from above) Previous year's Nursery multiplied by Nursery-Reception Retention Reception 11 428 3 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 Rate NCY1 6 11 4 1 8 3 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 NCY2 6 6102184111211111111111111111111 FOR JUNIOR-ONLY SCHOOLS ONLY Partner school's previous NCY2 multiplied by Infant-Junior Transfer NCY3 3 5610 2 1 8 4 11 12111111111111111111 Rate Previous NCY multiplied by NCY1-NCY6 Retention Rate NCY4 14 356 10 2 1 9 4 12121111111111111111 NCY5 7 15 4 7 6 10 2 1 9 4 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Previous NCY multiplied by NCY1-NCY6 retention Rate September Numbers September NCY6 12 8154 7 6 11 2 1 9 4 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 TOTAL NOR 63 56 53 42 51 55 60 61 70 81 84 92 92 91 91 91 91 91 91 Complete Primary Forecasts Extropolated to Obtain NCY6 for Secondary Forecasts Current actuals (September School Returns) Based upon forecasted births Key NOR - Numbers on Roll SPPA - School Place Planning Area NCY - National Curriculum Year Year 7 source Primary school Sep 11 Nb these figures are based on the numbers of children in Yr 7 reported as coming from a Fli primary.
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