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Ryder System, Inc. April 17, 2016 Stock Rating: R

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Ryder System, Inc. April 17, 2016 Stock Rating: R Krause Fund Spring 2016 April 17, 2016 Ryder System, Inc. Industrials – Trucking Stock Rating: NO ACTION Analysts Carson Goodale Current Price $66.22 [email protected] Target Price $75.00-$80.00 Troy Radtke R – Attractive Long-term Investment [email protected] Nicole Gierman Diverse Customer Segments: Ryder provides custom product [email protected] and services solutions to the Automotive, Technology, Healthcare, Consumer Packaged Goods and Retail, and Industrials, Aerospace and Sam Stecker Defense, Oil and Gas, and Food and Beverage industries mostly in [email protected] North America, but also has operations in the U.K. Foreign market opportunities could arise in the foreseeable future. Company Overview Ryder System Incorporated is a transportation and supply Specialized Product Offerings: Ryder may have found a chain management solutions company. They operate under niche in the competitive trucking industry by offering two specialized three business segments: Fleet Management Solutions transportation solutions that caters to diverse industry segments. In (FMS), Supply Chain Solutions (SCS), and Dedicated addition, they recently introduced a new value-added business segment Transportation Solutions (DTS). FMS provides service that is expected to perform well in the long run. leasing, commercial rental, contract maintenance, fuel services, and used vehicles. SCS provides supply chain Unique Business Model: Combines a large portion of operating solutions, such as distribution and transportation services in. leases and operating generating equipment to accommodate the DTS provides vehicles and drivers in the United States. increasing trend third-party logistical outsourcing demand and Ryder employs 33,100 people and operates in the United manage internal debt obligations. States, Asia, Mexico, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Year After Year Profit Margin Growth: Ryder has Stock Performance Highlights consistently grown profit margins by increasing their prices on products 52 week High $100.64 and services even during times of economic uncertainty. 52 week Low $45.12 Beta Value 1.5 Consistent Earnings Growth: Earnings have grown 16.67% Average Daily Volume 471,971 compounded annually over the past 6 years and with the increase in expected demand for outsourcing in the various product Share Highlights segments, we forecast modest growth moving forward. Market Capitalization $3.56 B Shares Outstanding 53 M Consistent Dividend Growth: Since 2004, Ryder has Book Value per share $37.15 continued to increase their dividends. With the company estimated to EPS (TTM) $5.75 reduce lease fleet and expectations of growth, the company should P/E Ratio 11.61 continue to grow dividends for the foreseeable future. Dividend Yield 2.55% Dividend Payout Ratio 28.7%% One Year Stock Performance Company Performance Highlights ROA 4.0% ROE 16% Sales $6.572 b Key Financial Ratios Current Ratio .65 Debt to Equity 278% XI Source: Yahoo! Finance 1 V circulation . On the other hand, inventory investments and net exports in Q4’15 decreased by 0.5% each, which is a cause for concern for freight and logistics Executive Summary because of the counterintuitive effect they have on real GDP compared to consumer spending V. We still Although we believe outsourcing is likely to continue, believe that the increase in consumer spending will currently Ryder is generating negative economic profit continue to support the growth of real GDP in the and negative free cash flow. To align with future and conclude that it will consistently grow in the management, we project positive free cash flow short-term. We project that real GDP will grow at a moving forward, however given a large amount of debt 2.15%-2.20% rate by Q4’16 with hopes that consumer due in 2016, we are uneasy about Ryder’s liquidity spending continues to rise and firms start investing position in the next year. Based on key growth rate more in inventory. By April 2018, we believe that real assumptions, economic, and industrial analysis, Ryder GDP levels will increase by 4.0%. We also foresee oil is currently undervalued and may be a bargain for prices increasing in the next year, but eventually investors who seek long-term growth potential. Ryder stabilizing, therefore having a largely positive impact appears to offset the negative cash flow through the use on freight, logistics, and road and rail firms. This of leverage and revenue generating equipment. assumption will hold if the economy adjusts to steady However, at this time we recommend NO ACTION to economic growth 2018 and consumers will be more be taken on Ryder System, Inc (R). willing to increase their personal and business consumption. Economic Outlook Oil Prices As of April 17th, the cost of crude oil is currently Real Gross Domestic Product hovering just above $38/barrel VI. The price of oil has Real Gross Domestic Product has maintained a decreased significantly since the Civil War in Libya in consistent 2% annual average growth rate since 2010II 2014 and has allowed logistics companies to cut down and, despite a downturn in the industrial sector, came on one of their biggest expenses: fuel. in at an annualized rate of 2.43% in 2015III. The figure below shows the annualized quarterly change as well as year over year growth in real GDP. Source: Macro Trends VII The recent increase in oil prices has had a negative effect on trucking and logistics companies as they must incur a higher fuel expense, as well as change the way they operate. For example, decreasing the usage level Source: Econoday V of trucks and utilizing more direct, point-to-point The 0.7% annualized increase of real GDP in Q4’15 is transportations. When oil prices were significantly reflected primarily by an increase in consumer decreasing, many customers contemplated switching spending, residential fixed investment, and federal from rail to trucking due to the belief that trucking government spending, therefore increasing the demand provided more stable costs, efficiency, and reliability. for transportation services of the additional goods in We envision that the price per barrel will continue to rise to around $40-$45 in the next six months due to 2 increased production of oil and the contemplation to switch from rail to trucking will diminish. By April Interest Rates th 2018, we anticipate oil prices to be around $80/barrel, Since March 11 , 2016, the Federal Funds Rate has XI following the recent upward trend of production and been hovering around the current rate of 0.37% . The demand, and then leveling off. If our assumption holds, federal funds rate affects financial conditions of the the cost per barrel will remain lower than historical economy and therefore has an effect on specific prices over the next three years which will enable firms industry growth. The graph below provides 62 years of in the industrials industry to keep their fuel expenses the Federal Funds Rate, both historical and current. low. Manufacturing Index Manufacturing industries only accounted for 12.5% of the United States’ total economy in 2013, but is often a critical indicator for total economic growth VII. The Manufacturing Index often changes before the economy does and is considered a leading indicator. An increase in the index usually shows that the economy is improving, while a decrease in the index XIV suggests the economy is performing poorly. Source: St. Louis Fed Bloomberg reported the index at 51.8 in the beginning Large capital expenditures are often made to finance of April 2016 IX. The graph below displays the Index revenue-generating equipment in the Industrials since June of 2015 and after a steep decline from July industry and companies with a large amount of to January, the country was able to rebound from poor borrowed money could default if the rate continues to manufacturing activity. The second graph shows the climb. Additionally, this would increase the firm’s rate of change over the past year. debt-to-equity ratio well over 150%. In the next six months, we predict the Federal Funds Rate to increase to 0.5% and rise to 2.5% in the next three years. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have recently been increasing their interest rate projections for the long-term XII. They plan on increasing the interest rate to control the money supply, impacting the debt capital intensive firms in the Transportation industry. Capital Markets Outlook During times of economic growth and low inflation, historical trends have shown that the Industrials sector Source: Bloomberg IX has outperformed most other sectors. The S&P 500 Industrials Index has had high, positive correlation 2 XVIII The decline was due to the strengthened dollar and (R =0.94) with the S&P 500 Index in times of ceased global growth, which caused American goods growth since 2013, as shown below. X to be less attractive in other countries . We predict that S&P 500 the Manufacturing Index will be around 52.5-53 in the next six months. The American dollar is still pretty strong but we do expect slight appreciation. By 2017, Industrials Index we expect the Index will continue to increase to around XII 55 caused by a hopeful increase in foreign exports. Source: Yahoo! Finance 3 Based on our research on the current economic The trucking industry is able to prosper in the state of outlook, we concluded that the Trucking, Railroads, or a healthy economy due to the increase in imports, Air Freight & Logistics industries would benefit the investments, government spending, and most most due to low current oil prices and comparative importantly, personal consumption expenditures. efficiency and reliability, but that the best time to Consumer spending confidence triggers a higher invest would be during a recession due to the cyclical circulation of goods in the United States, which nature of the Industrial sector.
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